Oregon State vs. Washington State
Point-Spread: OSU -3
O/U Total: 57.5
Implied Score: OSU 30 – Wazzu 27
Weather: 68 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Oregon State:
Top Play(s) – RB Damien Martinez ($6,700) The 247 Oregon State beat writer confirmed that Martinez is good to go this week after suffering a minor injury in the win over San Diego State. The sophomore back has hit 100 yards rushing in each of the first three games, though this will easily be the toughest task to date for Martinez facing a top 50 rush defense in Washington State. So far in three games the Cougars have yet to allow a running back to hit double-digit fantasy points. Wazzu has yet to match up with what is consistently been one of the best offensive lines in the Pac-12.
Fade – RB Deshaun Fenwick ($5,000) Fenwick is one of the best backups in the country, averaging nearly six yards a carry. But this is a 60-40 backfield split between he and Martinez that probably grows now that Oregon State is into conference play. Tight spread means no backup RBs are viable.
Bargain Bin – TE Jack Velling ($3,800) Second on the team with 11 targets, facing a defense that did allow 16 fantasy points to Colorado State tight end Dallin Holker earlier in the year.
Pivot Play – QB DJ Uiagalelei ($8,000) Intrigued by the 26-point fantasy projection here for DJU in a matchup where Oregon State can’t just grind the game out with the running game and the defense. Wazzu has also not graded out well against the pass through three games, ranking 109th in pass D success rate, despite allowing just 15 FPPG to opposing QB1s so far.
Best of the Rest – WR Silas Bolden ($5,600) and Anthony Gould ($6,000) Intrigued by both Oregon State receivers here in spite of this not being a high-volume passing game. Depth is severly lacking for the Beavers at receiver, so Bolden and Gould are dominating the target share at 40%. Wouldn’t stack both of them with DJU, but mixing both in some multi-entry lineups is a wise strategy.
Injury Notes – n/a
Washington State:
Top Play(s) – WR Lincoln Victor ($5,100) Victor is arguably the top player on the slate given his pricing and 20-point projection. 26% target share for the senior slot receiver who is averaging just over 10 targets a game through three weeks. The biggest surprise to me has been the 14.3 YPC average for Victor, as he was averaging just around 10 YPC in the four years prior. Play Victor solo, stack him with Cameron Ward, and possibly stack with another QB. All are viable options – the world is your oyster.
Fade – RB Nakia Watson ($5,400) As I’ve mentioned previously in writeups, I love to use our projections to gauge a player’s value but also take a peek at what Vegas/bettors are thinking with the player props. And Watson’s line came out at 33.5 yards. There’s some added value with Watson in the passing game, but there’s a surplus of good running back options on this slate with higher projections. Washington State is also 29th in pass rate at 56% so they won’t run the ball much anyways.
Bargain Bin – WR Carlos Hernandez ($3,000) Coaching staff absolutely RAVED about this true freshman ever since March. Now it looks as though he’s getting the second slot receiver role with the departure of DT Sheffield who left the team abruptly. Probably still fourth on the pecking order among receivers, but that’s a position that is still relevant in an Air Raid offense. Hernandez should be $4k realistically.
Pivot Play – WR Josh Kelly ($5,400) and Kyle Williams ($5,200) Would not roster both together but would consider pairing one with Cameron Ward or even in the same lineup with Lincoln Victor. Not all three together. We take FCS matchups with a grain of salt, but it is very notable to me that the foursome of Kelly, Williams, Victor and Hernandez all saw 58% or more of the offensive snaps with very little rotation until the game was truly out of hand. Looks like the DT Sheffield transfer was a blessing in disguise, giving us the solidified top four moving forward.
Best of the Rest – QB Cameron Ward ($8,400) Credit to Ward but also new offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle for how the Washington State QB1 is performing in 2023. Washington State is 7th in plays per game and are now ranked 3rd nationally in pass play success rate because of how efficient Ward has been thus far. This will be the stiffest test to date, facing an Oregon State secondary that is allowing just 8.7 FPPG to opposing QB1s. Jalen Mayden and Chevan Cordeiro aren’t world-beaters, but Oregon State dominated their matchup with both QBs.
Injury Notes – n/a
Arkansas vs. LSU
Point-Spread: LSU -17.5
O/U Total: 55
Implied Score: LSU 36 – Ark 19
Weather: 88 degrees / 16% rain / 5 mph winds
Arkansas:
Top Play(s) – WR Andrew Armstrong ($5,800) 100% conversion rate for a receiver on nine targets is extremely impressive. Armstrong caught all nine passes directed his way against BYU for 98 yards, and now leads the team in all major receiving categories. Assuming Arkansas is playing from behind like Vegas predicts, Armstrong will be the primary focus again for the Razorbacks in a trailing position.
Fade – WR Isaiah Sategna ($4,100) If you haven’t seen it already, go look up Sategna’s punt return from last week against BYU. Tremendous speed that unfortunately isn’t being as a receiver as Sategna has just four targets in three games with minimal routes run as a wideout.
Bargain Bin – TE Luke Hasz ($4,200) The freshman tight end had his best performance of the season last week with 78 yards and a touchdown on five targets. LSU struggled to defend Florida State TE Jaheim Bell in Week 1, allowing 19 fantasy points. Arkansas will need production from their freshman tight end with the lack of playmakers at receiver.
Pivot Play – RB AJ Green ($5,400) Can’t put Green as the top play being a 17-point underdog, but he’s been very good starting in place of Rocket Sanders, averaging nearly seven yards a carry. This looks to be a semi-favorable matchup on paper too as LSU ranks 12th in the SEC in rush defense and are 86th in rush D success rate.
Best of the Rest – QB KJ Jefferson ($7,100) I feel better about just playing an Andrew Armstrong or Isaac TeSlaa ($4,700) without stacking with Jefferson as the team total of under 20 points doesn’t really dictate it. I’ve now seen two LSU defenses this season. The one that allowed close to 40 fantasy points in the opener to a quarterback in Jordan Travis with a very similar set of skills to Jefferson. I also saw the Tigers absolutely embarrass and harass Will Rogers last week. Arkansas / LSU matchups have been competitive over the years so I trust that this one will be the same, but not sure it’ll be a high-scoring one.
Injury Notes – Rocket Sanders ($5,700) Sanders returned to practice this week but was limited with no contact. Beat writer calls him questionable at best, which in our eyes means he’s out. Arkansas has been fine running the football without him if we’re being honest. There are other issues with this offense.
LSU:
Top Play(s) – QB Jayden Daniels ($9,500) Last week was as impressive a performance I’ve seen lately from a QB-WR tandem play with Jayden Daniels finishing with 361 yards and four total touchdowns in the blowout win over Mississippi State on the road. I think Daniels completed like 15 passes in a row to start the game if memory serves. The senior QB has an experienced offensive line with all five starters back and two elite playmakers on the outside. Tough to fail in that scenario. Arkansas is allowing the sixth fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs in the country, but don’t put a ton of stock in that. The Razorbacks have faced Kedon Slovis and Kent State.
Fade – RB Josh Williams ($5,200) Seems like fading Williams will be a constant this season when LSU is on the slate, barring some sort of injury. The senior has been relegated to backup duties behind Logan Diggs, and it appeared John Emery was getting more run last week as well. We haven’t even mentioned Noah Cain or freshman phenom Kaleb Jackson who delivered a highlight reel run against MSU in garbage time. Lot of mouths to feed in the LSU backfield.
Bargain Bin – TE Mason Taylor ($3,900) The talented sophomore tight end is probable for Saturday after missing last week’s contest. Just 39 yards in the opener against Florida State, but Taylor was on the field for almost the entirety of the game, converting on all four of his targets. OC Mike Denbrock is known to feature the tight end dating back to his time at Cincinnati and Notre Dame. Taylor just needs to be healthy is all.
Pivot Play – WR Brian Thomas Jr. ($7,200) and Malik Nabers ($8,000) This star-studded duo made the headlines last week, and rightfully so after that performance, but don’t forget it was Thomas Jr. who was the team’s top target through the first two weeks. Aside from a target disparity (32-23) the production numbers between Nabers and Thomas are nearly identical. Probably can’t make it work from a cost perspective to have both in the same lineup, but the two combine for over 50% of the target share. Next closest receiver has just 10 targets.
Best of the Rest – RB Logan Diggs ($5,600) As many as five different backs received carries for LSU last week, but it’s fairly evident that Diggs is not only the starter, but the team’s most talented option. Even in a blowout situation last week, Diggs got just nine carries. Does that change if LSU still holds the lead, but Arkansas is more competitive? The Razorbacks allowed 22 fantasy points to a FR running back last Saturday.
Injury Notes – n/a
Texas vs. Baylor
Point-Spread: Tex -17
O/U Total: 48.5
Implied Score: Tex 33 – Bayl 16
Weather: 95 degrees / 11% rain / 13 mph winds
Texas:
Top Play(s) – RB Jonathon Brooks ($5,900) While our current projection displays more of a backfield split between Brooks and Cedric Baxter, it’s difficult to envision Texas lessening Brooks’ carries that much after the display he put on against Wyoming with 1645 rushing yards on 21 attempts. 40% of Brooks’ rushing attempts have gone over five yards this season, while he also forced 10 missed tackles against the Cowboys last Saturday. The 21 carries, for me, is also important in showing that Brooks can handle such a workload – something we’ve seen consistently from a Steve Sarkisian RB1 over the years. Baylor is 89th in rush D success rate and allowing over 18 FPPG to opposing RB1s.
Fade – WR Jordan Whittington ($5,000) Average stat line for Whittington through three games: four targets, 2.75 receptions and 35 receiving yards. Pretty much what we’ve come to expect from the senior slot receiver over the years.
Bargain Bin – TE Ja’Tavion Sanders ($4,000) I feel like I’ve been writing the exact same blurbs for years now when it comes to both Whittington and Ja’Tavion Sanders. Still vastly underpriced for one of the most talented tight ends in the country. There have been some connection issues, though, between Sanders and QB Quinn Ewers. After converting on 75% of his targets a year ago, Sanders has just seven receptions on 16 targets to begin 2023, and didn’t catch a single pass last week.
Pivot Play – QB Quinn Ewers ($7,500) The Baylor defense has been much better against the pass vs. the run but did allow 30 fantasy points in the opener to Texas State QB TJ Finley, who is very much in the mold of Ewers as a strong-armed pocket passer. The Bears have already allowed 10 passing plays of 25+ yards or more this season, despite ranking third in yards allowed through the air in the Big 12.
Best of the Rest – WR Xavier Worthy ($6,500) or Adonai Mitchell ($5,400) That stat above on the Baylor secondary bodes well for Worthy or Mitchell on Saturday as some of the top deep threats in the country. I would not stack Ewers with both Worthy and Mitchell in the same lineup – just choose one. Worthy is obviously the preferred choice of the two with 28% of the team target share and 27% of the team’s receptions this season.
Injury Notes – RB Cedric Baxter ($4,900) The 5-star freshman has been practicing this week and is expected to play. How much is unknown given Brooks’ emergence a week ago.
Baylor:
Top Play(s) – RB Richard Reese ($5,200) Despite rushing for two touchdowns last week against LIU, something just feels off with Reese and his usage with this current coaching staff. The game was well in hand last week, but it was freshman Dawson Pendergrass who saw 21 carries for 111 yards and a score, playing almost a third more snaps than Reese did. We mentioned this in the preseason with regards to offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes. His RB1s at LSU – all 200+ pounds. Same at BYU. Abram Smith was a load. Dominic Richardson, who seemingly won the RB1 job this year over Reese – 200 pounds. Dawson Pendergrass is 219 pounds. Reese might be just too slight of build for this coaching staff’s preference. The long-winded response of saying Reese is still the best option for Baylor this week, but this is realistically a full-team fade in our eyes.
Fade – WR Monaray Baldwin ($3,800) Whether it’s injury-related or Baldwin is in the coaching staff’s doghouse, we don’t know. But one of the fastest players in all of college football has barely been on the field the last two weeks, running just five routes in each game. Dave Aranda gave a bunch of coach speak when discussing Baldwin, but then you also see tweets about Baldwin standing away from the team when they’re together during pregame warmups. His 22.8 MPH speed is going to waste.
Bargain Bin – TE Drake Dabney ($4,200) Third in targets, second in routes run and first on the team with three receiving touchdowns. Texas did allow 12.5 fantasy points to Alabama tight end Amari NiBlack two weeks ago.
Pivot Play – WR Ketron Jackson ($4,700) Team leader in targets (20) and receptions (10). While Jackson hasn’t found the end-zone yet, you have to feel its coming soon. 16.8 yards per catch and an aDOT of 15.1 yards. Top deep threat on the team.
Best of the Rest – QB Sawyer Robertson ($6,500) Best argument you could make here is game script to where Baylor is without its starting running back and is a double-digit underdog. The problem is Texas has been excellent on the back end, allowing just 12 FPPG to opposing QB1s and are 10th in pass D success rate.
Injury Notes – RB Dom Richardson ($4,000) Ankle sprain for the Baylor RB1 will keep him out another week.
Ohio State vs. Notre Dame
Point-Spread: OSU -3.5
O/U Total: 55.5
Implied Score: OSU 29 – ND 26
Weather: 71 degrees / 0% rain / 10 mph winds
Ohio State:
Top Play(s) – WR Marvin Harrison Jr. ($9,400) Lean on your best players in the biggest moments. Have to think Kyle McCord will be looking early and often towards his trusted companion on the outside. We’ve seen an uptick in production from MHJ in the last two games, topping 100 yards in each week with three touchdowns. Tough matchup with Notre Dame cornerback Benjamin Morrison, and MHJ was limited to just five receptions for 56 yards in last year’s matchup in Columbus.
Fade – WR Julian Fleming ($6,300) If Fleming was $4.3k, we’re heavily considering him. The only way to rationalize Fleming at this salary is that he’s on the field literally just as much as both Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egubka, with just as many targets as the latter. The production simply isn’t there, averaging 9.1 yards per catch. He’ll be severely underowned in all formats if you’re looking for a longshot GPP.
Bargain Bin – RB Chip Trayanum ($4,000) The former Arizona State transfer has seen just as many carries as Miyan Williams has in each of the last two games. Both have been blowouts so I take this with a grain of salt and could definitely see Ohio State leaning on their trusted senior in Williams in a road spot like this. But has there been a change at the RB2 spot behind TreVeyon?
Pivot Play – RB TreVeyon Henderson ($7,200) We keep hearing it from the staff. Henderson is the healthiest he’s been in quite some time, and some good production is coming with it. Four rushing touchdowns in the last two games, and we saw separation with Henderson’s volume compared to the other backups on the roster. Notre Dame’s rush defense has been adequate, but strength of schedule also comes into play. Numbers will look good when you’ve faced Navy, Central Michigan and NC State. WR Emeka Egubka ($7,600) has three receiving touchdowns in the last two games, but here’s the reason why his numbers are down. His average depth of target is just 5.6 yards in 2023. That’s half of what it was each of the last two years.
Best of the Rest – QB Kyle McCord ($8,200) Will eat some crow here if I’m wrong on this prediction, but I haven’t seen anything above and beyond from McCord to this point that makes me think he’ll thrive in a road start at night at Notre Dame. The Irish are 10th in pass D success rate and allowing just 13.7 FPPG to opposing QB1s. Now those numbers do consist of Navy’s QB, Central Michigan’s QB and Brennan Armstrong, but all accounts are that the ND secondary is playing well this season. Not that this has any significance on the game but I always like to point this out. Three Ohio State beat writers gave their prop predictions on o/u 2.5 touchdowns for Kyle McCord. All said under.
Injury Notes – n/a
Notre Dame:
Top Play(s) – WR Jayden Thomas ($5,900) Don’t shoot the messenger if this play doesn’t pan out, but from a pricing and projection perspective, I think Thomas makes the most sense here. Team leader in targets (16), receptions (12) and routes run among Notre Dame receivers this season. Notre Dame won’t be able to hand the ball off to its stable of running backs all game, and I’ve said this time and again now, but rotations likely tighten up in games of importance like this. Thomas is ND’s WR1.
Fade – RB Jadarian Price ($5,000) I’ve been very encouraged by Price’s performances in September and if Audric Estime leaves for the NFL after this year, the sophomore running back will likely rank very highly in our 2024 College Fantasy rankings. That said, I think the Central Michigan box score will mirror what we see on Saturday with Estime dominating the touches in the ND backfield.
Bargain Bin – WR Jaden Greathouse ($3,900) Too big a moment for the true freshman? The shine has worn off a bit since the opening game, but Greathouse is still second on the team lead with three receiving touchdowns.
Pivot Play – QB Sam Hartman ($8,500) This is what a veteran quarterback like Sam Hartman was brought to South Bend for – games like this. We know how good the Irish passing offense has been through four games, ranking 10th in success rate and 3rd in pass EPA/per play. Can Hartman do it in the spotlight now against a secondary that just limited Austin Reed to 12 fantasy points? You want some exposure here, but a 23-point projection at $8.5k makes this just a mid-tier play.
Best of the Rest – RB Audric Estime ($7,500) As we stated above, we do think Estime’s workload last week against CMU will mirror what we see on Saturday with the Irish RB1 garnering 60% of the volume share. Same question as Hartman – can Estime find success against what has statistically been a very good Ohio State rush defense? 13th in rush D success rate for the Buckeyes and have allowed just 22 fantasy points all season to running backs. I’m not stacking the Irish offense in any lineup, but you want pieces here and there. TE Holden Staes ($4,600) has become a mainstay in the Notre Dame starting lineup, now with four receiving touchdowns in the last three games. WR Tobias Merriweather ($4,700) has seen an uptick in production in recent weeks and had his best game yet with 91 yards and a TD vs. CMU.
Injury Notes – n/a
Iowa vs. Penn State
Point-Spread: PSU -14.5
O/U Total: 38.5
Implied Score: PSU 26.5 – Iowa 12
Weather: 56 degrees / 83% rain / 14 mph winds
Iowa:
Is Saturday’s matchup Kirk Ferentz’ wet dream? Game total under 40. Swirling 14 mph winds. 56% chance rain expected, and special teams will most likely be the deciding factor in the outcome? We don’t have a single Iowa player projected to score more than 11 fantasy points for the matchup with Penn State who possess a top 10 defense. TE Erick All ($3,700) deserves some consideration at his price as he steps in for Luke Lachey as the starting tight end. Outside of that, zero interest on the Iowa side. This game is going to severely hurt Brian Ferentz chances at hitting his contractual obligations of 25 points per game in 2023.
Penn State:
Top Play(s) – RB Nick Singleton ($6,100) Preface by saying we’re not playing anyone on the Penn State side either, unless the weather clears up by game time. The Hawkeyes are only allowing 12.2 FPPG to opposing backfields, 10th lowest in the country, but are just 88th in rush D success rate. Which side of the coin is it? If it is rainy and windy, what we do know is that Penn State will lean on its most talented player, someone who is infinitely more athletic than anyone on the Iowa defense.
Fade – QB Drew Allar ($7,700) Seven games means 14 quarterback options. There are only two quarterbacks on the slate I would start Allar over. One is in this game. The other is about to get replaced at Pittsburgh. I will have Allar in exactly zero lineups.
Bargain Bin – TE Tyler Warren ($3,900) We were told this week that our 9.7 projection of Tyler Warren was far too high considering the weather conditions and the fact he hasn’t hit 40 receiving yards in a game this season. While that may be true, what is undisputed is the fact that Warren has solidified his spot over Theo Johnson as the team’s top receiving tight end, finding the end-zone on three targets last week against Illinois.
Pivot Play – RB Kaytron Allen ($5,300) I will always prefer Singleton if given the choice, but doesn’t this just feel like a Kaytron Allen game? Not as flashy but will grind out the tough yards in between the tackles. Very little separation between the two with a slight edge to Allen in both total carries and red zone rushing attempts, yet still trails Singleton in rushing touchdowns (5-2). Singleton has just one more target in the passing game, though neither player is heavily utilized in that facet.
Best of the Rest – WR KeAndre Lambert-Smith ($6,600) KLS’ 220 receiving yards this season are more than double the next closest receiver on the roster. Tough to justify, though, his pricing in this type of game setting that will be slow-paced and in an environment favoring the defenses. WR Malik McClain ($4,300) was second on the team in routes run last week behind Lambert-Smith with five targets. Two blown opportunities with drops, so you wonder if his playing time is cut as a result of that.
Injury Notes – WR Harrison Wallace ($4,900) Wallace did not play against Illinois and is officially questionable for Saturday. Do not consider him, regardless of his playing status.
North Carolina vs. Pittsburgh
Point-Spread: UNC -7.5
O/U Total: 50
Implied Score: UNC 28.5 – Pitt 21.5
Weather: 61 degrees / 29% rain / 14 mph winds
North Carolina:
Top Play(s) – WR Nate McCollum ($6,200) McCollum needed just one game to ascend the UNC leaderboard, after putting up 15 receptions on 20 targets in the win over Minnesota last week. I don’t know that it’s necessarily a trend with this passing scheme, but it is most definitely a trend now with Drake Maye in that slot receivers are his preferred choices to throw to. We saw that with Downs a year ago. Now with the Georgia Tech transfer who played 95% of his reps in the slot last week.
Fade – WR Kobe Paysour ($5,500) This one hurts to say because I really like Paysour as a trusted slot receiver. The problem is that he played 90% of his snaps out wide last week – not where he’s best utilized inside against nickel backs and linebackers. That position now belongs to Nate McCollum. And the results were unfortunate with just one reception on two targets.
Bargain Bin – TE Bryson Nesbit ($4,000) Strange fall camp for Nesbit, one of the team’s top athletes on offense, as he seemingly fell all the way to third string on the depth chart. Doesn’t appear to be the case now as his usage has seen an uptick the last two weeks, including 46 yards and a score on four targets vs. Minnesota. Pitt has already allowed multiple tight ends to score double-digit fantasy points this season.
Pivot Play – RB Omarion Hampton ($5,500) I don’t see Hampton having a ton of ownership on the slate with British Brooks in the lineup. While Hampton did find the end-zone last week, it was a 13-11 split in the UNC backfield. This is not a dominant rush defense we’ve seen from Pitt typically under Pat Narduzzi, allowing 19 FPPG to opposing RB1s with both Corey Kiner and CJ Donaldson finding success against this front.
Best of the Rest – QB Drake Maye ($9,800) I think this is just too pricey for Maye here with just a 24.7-point projection. The Panthers rank inside the top 50 in most pass defense statistical categories and are giving up the fifth fewest fantasy points in the country right now to opposing quarterbacks. High floor, low ceiling for Maye here who should benefit now with a trust pass-catching option emerging in McCollum. WR JJ Jones ($5,600) is third on the team in targets (12) with a 17.9 YPC average. He’ll play most of the game snaps out wide opposite Paysour.
Injury Notes – WR Gavin Blackwell ($3,100) Blackwell left last week’s contest after his 38-yard reception and did not return. Last update I’ve seen is that he’s being monitored this week.
Pitt:
Top Play(s) – RB Rodney Hammond ($5,100) I thought initially when seeing this game on the slate that we would just bypass the Pitt offense, but I was shocked to see an implied team total of three touchdowns. Not that the UNC defense is anything special but speaks to how poor the Pitt offense has been to begin the year. CFF owners have been overly frustrated with Hammond’s usage to begin the year, but Narduzzi came out this week and said that he promises the RB1 will see a bigger workload on Saturday. North Carolina grades out very poorly against the run, ranking 95th in rush D success rate and allowing 21.5 FPPG to opposing RB1s.
Fade – QB Phil Jurkovec ($6,100) Narduzzi has staunchly advocated for his QB1, but I don’t buy it. 35% completion rate combined over the last two games and threw for all of 81 yards in the loss to West Virginia last week. It would not shock anyone to see backup Christian Veilleux at some point here if Jurkovec gets off to a slow start.
Bargain Bin – n/a. We’re only considering one player on the Pitt side of things this week, and that’s Hammond.
Pivot Play – WR Bub Means ($4,700) Really an extraordinary stat-line for Means so far with four receptions on 18 targets. Leads the team in targets and does have a 22.3 aDOT so when Means is being targeted, it is down the field. Chance for scoring opportunities but that’s dependent on Phil Jurkovec completing a pass beyond 10 yards. Rare occurrence these days.
Best of the Rest – WR Konata Mumpfield ($5,300) At least four targets in each of the first three games, and second on the team in routes run. UNC has allowed two receivers – Xavier Legette and Dashaun Davis – to score 23 or more fantasy points against them this season.
Injury Notes – n/a
Central Florida vs. Kansas State
Point-Spread: KSU -3.5
O/U Total: 52
Implied Score: KSU 28 – UCF 24.5
Weather: 80 degrees / 7% rain / 8 mph winds
Central Florida:
Top Play(s) – QB Timmy McClain ($7,200) Obviously a big difference between facing Villanova (in football) and this Kansas State defense, but it was a tremendous debut for the former USF transfer with 360 total yards of offense and a pair of scores. Why we like McClain a bit this week is the rushing floor he provides as a perfect fit in Gus Malzahn’s system. Athletically, there isn’t much of a drop-off going from JRP to McClain so the style of offense doesn’t change. Kansas State is coming off a game in which it allowed 28 fantasy points to an average quarterback in Brady Cook.
Fade – WR Xavier Townsend ($5,300) I distinctly remember myself suggesting under on 32.5 receiving yards on Townsend in the opener, and the sophomore slot receiver blowing that out of the water on the first drive. Since? Just five receiving yards in two games on four targets. We’re seeing Chauncey Magwood, a Kentucky transfer, getting a few more looks in the slot too.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Not considering any UCF players under $5k.
Pivot Play – RB RJ Harvey ($6,400) Not sure how much I love this Harvey selection given that Kansas State has been dominant against the run to begin the year, ranking No. 1 in the country in rush D success rate and allowing just 7.9 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Kimani Vidal did rush for 80+ yards, though, on this defense and Harvey has hit that mark with a touchdown in each of the first three games.
Best of the Rest – WR Javon Baker ($5,500) and Kobe Hudson ($5,100) Not much to dissect here between Baker and Hudson as their numbers are somewhat identical (aside from yards) and it’s essentially the same situation as last year. One game it’ll be Baker, the next it’ll be Hudson. Biggest difference between the two has been the 21.8 YPC average for Hudson and the four drops for Baker. Kansas State has allowed four receivers to score double-digit fantasy points against them this season, including 30 from Luther Burden last week.
Injury Notes – QB John Rhys Plumlee ($8,800) We know JRP is out this week. Sounds like next week’s matchup with Baylor is the earliest possible return date. We might be seeing Timmy McClain for an extended period.
Kansas State:
Top Play(s) – RB DJ Giddens ($5,200) Welp, here we go. Fantasy owners of Giddens and/or Treshaun Ward have been over the top frustrated with the lack of production and 50-50 split backfield. Now Ward is doubtful entering Saturday, meaning we “should” see a full workload from the talented 210-pound sophomore in Giddens. Not to mention KSU could be without its starting quarterback as well, leaning even further to giving Giddens a hefty dosage of carries. UCF is allowing 18.4 FPPG to opposing RB1s and 61st in rush D success rate.
Fade – WR Keagan Johnson ($4,000) Maybe a breakout is coming for the Iowa transfer, and he did see his reps triple from Week 2 to Week 3 but was targeted just once in the process. We’ll need to see more from Johnson before considering.
Bargain Bin – WR Jadon Jackson ($4,100) Playing time has steadily increased for Jackson with each passing week and the production has followed, now with four receptions in each of the last two games.
Pivot Play – TE Ben Sinnott ($4,700) I’d probably only consider Sinnott if Will Howard ends up playing as the connection has been strong between the QB-TE duo over the last 8 games played. After a down week against Troy, Sinnott rebounded with a team-high nine targets and two touchdowns in the loss to Missouri. UCF has allowed just 7.9 fantasy points to tight ends this season but have played two teams that don’t feature the position in their passing scheme.
Best of the Rest – WR Phillip Brooks ($6,100) Limit one to any Kansas State pass-catchers in your DFS lineups, and that particularly holds true if Will Howard does not play. Brooks leads the team in every receiving category.
Injury Notes – Monitor the statuses today of Treshaun Ward and Will Howard. The former is unlikely to play while Howard is questionable. Should Howard sit, it would be 4-star freshman Avery Johnson making his first-career start. 817 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns in his senior year of high school so he is a dual-threat.
