Arkansas vs. Texas A&M
Point-Spread: A&M -2.5
O/U Total: 50.5
Implied Score: A&M 26.5 – Ark 24
Weather: 95 degrees / 0% rain / 8 mph winds
Arkansas:
Top Play(s) – RB Raheim Sanders ($7,400) Rocket Sanders accounts for 60% of the rushing yards accumulated by the Hogs this season and leads the SEC in rush yards per game at 143.7. Top three running back in the country too steep a statement? I know we typically think of A&M as a stout defense, but the Aggies have struggled to stop the run so far, allowing 154.3 YPG on the ground which is 83rd nationally.
Fade – WR Warren Thompson ($5,000) You’ll get the same fade play every week Arkansas is on the slate. Most offensive snaps of any Arkansas receiver, and for what? Six receptions on 11 targets and hasn’t topped 40 yards in a game yet this season. Min pricing is the only time we consider Thompson on our rosters…if that.
Bargain Bin – WR Matt Landers ($4,200) The Toledo transfer had a breakout performance last week against Missouri State with 7-123-0 on eight targets which now puts Landers second on the team with 17. Feels due for a touchdown, right? As expected, Landers is tops on the team (min 5 targets), averaging 15.1 yards per catch and aDOT of 14.3.
Pivot Play – TE Trey Knox ($4,000) Rarely will we roster a tight end in a large GPP not named Michael Mayer or Brock Bowers. And we still wouldn’t advise it here, but there’s at least an argument to be made for Knox. Leads all Arkansas skill position players in offensive snaps played and is third on the team in targets. A&M has actually struggled to defend the tight end position, allowing 10.4 FPPG to opposing TE1s.
Best of the Rest – QB KJ Jefferson ($7,000) Crazy to think a quarterback like Jefferson isn’t a lock here at $7k. What more do you want? A dual threat quarterback who’s third among SEC quarterbacks in rushing yards (169) and his efficiency ratings are off the charts, completing over 70% of his passes. Unlike the running game, the Aggies have excelled at defending the pass, allowing just 147.3 yards per game.
Injury Notes – n/a
Texas A&M:
Top Play(s) – RB Devon Achane ($6,300) First off, what am I missing? How is A&M favored here? Homefield advantage? Arkansas is better at running the ball, passing the ball and defending the run. I digress. Similar to Rocket, anytime A&M is on the docket (hey that rhymed) Achane will be the top play. The Razorbacks haven’t been dominant defending the run, allowing 16.6 FPPG to opposing RB1s and 84th in rush play success rate.
Fade – QB Max Johnson ($4,700) I say this with a caveat that we should expect a better performance from Johnson in his second start with the Aggies. Mostly because he’ll get back Evan Stewart and Chris Marshall who did not play due to disciplinary reasons against Miami. The Razorbacks are 48th in pass play success rate defensively, but have been susceptible to the big play, ranking 120th in explosiveness. Might be some area to exploit in the A&M passing game.
Bargain Bin – WR Evan Stewart ($3,600) Very concentrated A&M passing attack where Ainias Smith and Stewart account for 53% of the total team target share with no other receiver accounting for more than eight targets in three games. There aren’t many A&M receivers that can separate from defensive backs the way Stewart can on this roster.
Pivot Play – WR Ainias Smith ($5,900) Same argument for Stewart, just at a more expensive rate. Leads team in targets (22), receptions (14) and touchdowns (2). Smith’s yards per route run (3.16) and aDOT (10.5) are the highest marks of his career to date, and could cause problems against a leaky Arkansas secondary prone to allowing a big play or two.
Best of the Rest – n/a The three skill position players listed above account for 58% of the team’s offensive production. Nobody else for the Aggies needs to be considered aside from those listed above.
Injury Notes – n/a
Northern Illinois vs. Kentucky
Point-Spread: KU -25.5
O/U Total: 53.5
Implied Score: UK 39.5 – NIU 14
Weather: 74 degrees / 19% rain / 11 mph winds
Northern Illinois:
I’d steer clear from NIU until they get into MACtion next week. Defense can’t stop a nosebleed. QB Rocky Lombardi is questionable, and likely not playing as it was Ethan Hampton leading the offense in practice as of Wednesday (Lombardi is listed atop this week’s depth chart. Lowest implied total of the slate, and that’d drop if Vegas knew that Lombardi was out.
Kentucky:
Top Play(s) – QB Will Levis ($8,300) Threw 37 pass attempts while also rushing for a TD against Youngstown State last week. Have to think UK is going to up the tempo against NIU after a disappointing performance prior to SEC play starting the following week. As bad as the Huskies are at defending the run, they’re worst against the pass, allowing 38.4 FPPG to opposing QB1s and 127th in pass play success rate.
Fade – Non-starters. Popular play to roster some backups in a possible blowout situation such as this. But what was the reason for all of the starters getting so many offensive snaps against Youngstown State? Mark Stoops not pleased with the performance of his 1s? We’d be wrong not assume that this changes much against a more formidable opponent in NIU, right?
Bargain Bin – WR Barion Brown ($4,800) Blowout situations like this are a perfect opportunity to get the talented freshmen involved. Projection of just 7.0 fantasy points doesn’t suggest we consider the 4-star receiver, but Brown saw a season-high seven targets on 43 offensive snaps against Youngstown State.
Pivot Play – RB Kavosiey Smoke ($6,100) Even in a 31-0 blowout, starting RB Kavosiey Smoke saw 62% of the Kentucky rushing attempts, finishing with 65 yards and a touchdown. Not impressive to average just 3.6 YPC against an FCS opponent and the performance of the OL has been a reason why, ranking 100th in stuff rate and 94th in line yards. Get-right opportunity? Northern Illinois is 87th in rush play success rate and allowing 21.1 FPPG to opposing RB1s.
Best of the Rest – WR Tayvion Robinson ($6,900) I was one of many that heavily invested in Tayvion Robinson a few weeks back against Florida, thinking he was the second coming of Wan’Dale Robinson. Expectations were overblown as Robinson saw just two targets, spending much of the game in the Kentucky backfield. The Virginia Tech transfer was utilized as expected against Youngstown State with six receptions on six targets, but tough to trust the Kentucky plan with Robinson moving forward. WR Dane Key ($6,300) looks to be the receiver to own here, finding the end-zone in each of the last three games, and leading the Wildcats with a 16.5 aDOT.
Injury Notes – n/a
Iowa vs. Rutgers
Point-Spread: Iowa -8
O/U Total: 33.5
Implied Score: Iowa 20.5 – Rutgers 13
Weather: 63 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
If you, the reader, lose out on $50k because we did not write up this game, go ahead and blame me. I’ll give you my @ on Twitter to call me out. I simply have no motivation to look at this game whatsoever.
UNLV vs. Utah State
Point-Spread: UNLV -2.5
O/U Total: 61.5
Implied Score: UNLV 32 – Utah St 29.5
Weather: 74 degrees / 0% rain / 4 mph winds
UNLV:
Top Play(s) – RB Aidan Robbins ($4,700) Robbins will assuredly have the highest ownership of the slate after rushing for 227 yards and three scores last week on North Texas. We stated during the offseason how much HC Marcus Arroyo loves feeding his RB1 over the years dating back to Oregon and then the last few seasons with Charles Williams. 60% of the volume market share for the Rebels. Utah State is a bottom-third run defense in the country, ranking 99th in rush play success rate and allowing 19.1 FPPG to opposing RB1s.
Fade – RB Courtney Reese ($4,400) Everyone is either priced correctly or underpriced on UNLV so most Rebels are in play here. Vegas pegs this as a 2.5-point spread so I’d probably avoid the backup running back here in what is expected to be a close contest. Robbins dominates the touches so not a lot of room for additional production.
Bargain Bin – WR Jeff Weimer ($4,400) The JUCO transfer is third amongst the wide receivers in terms of pecking order with 10 receptions on 15 targets, but the top three do account for 2/3s of the team target share so nobody else is involved much. Two drops last week against North Texas might affect his standing on the depth chart, though.
Pivot Play – QB Doug Brumfield ($7,100) Lot of big-name quarterbacks on the slate, so Brumfield might get overlooked, but his FPPG averages are right up there with Caleb Williams, CJ Stroud, etc. The Aggies are equally as bad defending the pass so far, ranking 90th in pass play success rate, 100th in explosiveness and 32.8 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. Ok, yes that is skewed by the 55-point outburst by Bryce Young, but you get the point. Teams can throw on Utah State.
Best of the Rest – Very little separation between Kyle Williams ($5,400) and Ricky White ($5,800) in terms of preference. 22 and 23 targets, respectively. Tied for the team lead with three touchdowns a piece. Big difference is big-play ability where White leads the team in yards per catch (16.7) and has the higher aDOT (10.2) of the two.
Injury Notes – n/a
Utah St:
Top Play(s) – WR Brian Cobbs ($4,200) Even if Logan Bonner were performing at last year’s pace, it would still be evident to us that there is no Deven Thompkins-like receiver on Utah State this year. We’ll touch more on the rest of the receiving corps below, but Cobbs has been the best Aggie WR in the early part of the year with 12 receptions on 20 targets. His looks could increase now with Kyle Van Leeuwen out for the year.
Fade – QB Logan Bonner ($4,900) Bonner has not been the same quarterback in 2022 and admitted this week some of it has to do with the lack of confidence in his knee. Completion percentage is down 11 points from last year. Has thrown just three touchdowns and three interceptions in three games, two of which came against Connecticut and Weber State. His yards per game average has plummeted to 146.6 after throwing for 259.1 per game a year ago. But we have a 21-point projection this week at this low a salary. Worth debating, but there are so many QB options on this slate that I’d rather not risk another dud.
Bargain Bin – WR Terrell Vaughn ($3,800) Of the two potential slot receivers to replace Van Leeuwen, Vaughn has been the more productive of the two – Ny Ny Davis being the other – catching six passes on nine targets. Meanwhile, Davis has more drops (3) than receptions (2). I’d side towards Vaughn getting the starting nod in the slot where we’ve seen plenty of production in the past, most recently Brandon Bowling and his 10 touchdowns in 2021.
Pivot Play – RB Calvin Tyler ($4,800) Best way to help an ailing passing game? Get Calvin Tyler and the running game rolling. Trouble is the offensive line is struggling to open holes, ranking 114th in stuff rate, 100th in line yards and 121st in rush play success rate. UNLV is allowing 18.9 FPPG to opposing RB1s so far as both Jaydn Ott and Oscar Adaway both had successful days, but the Rebels are 40th in rush play success rate defensively.
Best of the Rest – WR Justin McGriff ($4,100) McGriff is on the field just as much as Cobbs, but has done less with seven receptions on 13 targets. What I’ve noticed when watching Utah State is McGriff is usually on the wide side of the hashes so Bonner has to make longer throws when looking towards the 6-foot-5 receivers, hence why he has less targets.
Injury Notes – n/a
Wisconsin vs. Ohio State
Point-Spread: OSU -18.5
O/U Total: 56.5
Implied Score: OSU 37.5 – Wisc 19
Weather: 63 degrees / 5% rain / 3 mph winds
Wisconsin:
Braelon or bust. And for me, to quote Mark Cuban, I’m out. This is a new and improved Ohio State defense under Jim Knowles, and they’ve dominated opposing running backs, allowing just 5.7 FPPG so far.
Ohio State:
Top Play(s) – WRs Emeka Egbuka ($6,200) and Marvin Harrison Jr. ($7,000) Double-stacking the Ohio State receivers worked quite well for me in the night slate last week. 57% of the team’s total target share and eight of the 12 receiving touchdowns. How does the dynamic change if JSN and Julian Fleming are able to play the full game? Both are options, just a matter if stacking the two together is viable this week. Maybe some pregame clarity on the other receivers will help us decide.
Fade – TE Cade Stover ($4,100) Bet you never saw this coming. Cade Stover has more receiving yards than Jaxon Smith-Njigba through three weeks. 11 targets – third most on the team – and averaging over 17 yards a catch. In a Big Ten game, with JSN and Julian Fleming potentially more involved in the passing game, I don’t anticipate that continues.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – RB Miyan Williams ($5,900) Williams is getting run regardless of Henderson’s health status. Limited upside if Henderson is full-go, but still averaging 10 carries a game and over six yards a carry.
Best of the Rest – QB CJ Stroud ($9,100) Don’t have it in me to say fade one of the best QBs in the country, but I probably won’t be rostering Stroud this week much. A low implied team total for Ohio State standards, and you read up on the game getting the sense that Wisconsin may take the Notre Dame approach of trying to slow down and muck up this game. Worked for the Irish for three quarters. Wisconsin can’t trade blows with this offense.
Injury Notes – This has been the most extensive portion of the writeups all year for the Buckeyes with TreVeyon Henderson ($8,400) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($7,600) both less than 100%. The belief is both will play Saturday, but how much? According to the beats, Henderson did come off the practice field Wednesday looking healthy. Meanwhile, Smith-Njigba missed his scheduled time with the media – exact reasons unknown to us. My stance is usually siding with the least amount of uncertainty with my lineups, so I’ll fade both players until we hear they’re 100% ready to go. Not like Ohio State doesn’t have the firepower otherwise.
Kansas State vs. Oklahoma
Point-Spread: OU -12.5
O/U Total: 53.5
Implied Score: OU 33 – KSU 20.5
Weather: 86 degrees / 0% rain / 4 mph winds
Kansas State:
Just two players realistically in play here with Kansas State in QB Adrian Martinez ($5,700) and RB Deuce Vaughn ($6,700), and don’t view either as priority plays. Kansas State is 15th nationally in rush play percentage, but there are growing concerns along the offensive line which were on display in the loss to Tulane last week. The Sooners have been good against the run, ranking 54th in rush play success rate and allowing just 8.9 FPPG to opposing RB1s. One thing is for sure – Kansas State cannot just run the same vanilla game plan and expect to beat Oklahoma on the road. Probably means we’ll see WR Malik Knowles ($5,100) have an impact as both a receiver and on jet-sweeps where he is very dangerous.
Oklahoma:
Top Play(s) – n/a There really isn’t a must-play here for the Sooners with an implied total of 33 points. Mims is hit or miss. We hit on why to fade Gabriel below. Backfield is a split between Eric Gray and Marcus Major. None of the other receivers have stepped up confidently alongside Mims as a running mate at receiver.
Fade – QB Dillon Gabriel ($8,500) Price doesn’t meet production, and I’m not going to roster Gabriel against, statistically, the best pass defense in the Big 12. Do I think Kansas State remains that way? No, they’ve faced Missouri, Tulane, and an FCS opponent. But advanced data likes this KSU secondary too, ranking 15th in pass play success rate. Gabriel has been good, but yet to score over 30 fantasy points in a game this season. 24.9-point projection is not worth $8,500.
Bargain Bin – RB Marcus Major ($5,200) There is no sub-$4k option we feel confident in, so we’ll role with Oklahoma’s “backup” running back as the bargain bin play being $2k less than Eric Gray. The Sooners are 15th nationally in rushing offense, averaging 235 YPG on the ground. Major doesn’t get the attempts that Gray does, but 21% of his carries have come inside the red-zone this season with a team-high four touchdowns.
Pivot Play – WR Marvin Mims ($8,400) Good week, bad week – rinse and repeat. To be fair to Mims, he was a half-yard away from scoring a touchdown last week against Nebraska and did lead the Sooners in targets for the third-straight game to begin the season. He’ll see very low ownership this week given his pricing, but I think this could be a spot to take advantage. While KSU is a top-notch pass defense statistically, they’re also 84th in pass play explosiveness allowed. If there is one word to describe Mims and his 22.1 yards per catch average, it would be explosive.
Best of the Rest – WR Jalil Farooq ($4,600) Just 10 targets in three games for Farooq, but the sophomore receiver finally found the end-zone last week against Nebraska. Production hasn’t necessarily been there, but Farooq has played more offensive snaps than any other skill position player on OU not named Dillon Gabriel. I’m more than fine with fading RB Eric Gray ($7,200) at his pricing. Kansas State is allowing just 8.3 FPPG to opposing RB1s so far.
Injury Notes – n/a
Boston College vs. Florida State
Point-Spread: FSU -17.5
O/U Total: 48.5
Implied Score: FSU 33 – BC 15.5
Weather: 80 degrees / 5% rain / 6 mph winds
Boston College:
Second-lowest implied total of the slate. BC’s running game is atrocious, mostly due to offensive line play. Plenty of quarterback options at our disposal to where we don’t even need to consider Phil Jurkovec. Only viable options are WR Zay Flowers ($5,800) or TE George Takacs ($4,100) who combine for 54% of the total team target share.
Florida State:
Top Play(s) – RB Treshaun Ward ($6,200) Normally this spot is reserved for Jordan Travis, who is starting, but we’ll avoid for a week as he’s coming back from injury. Think there’s a good chance the Florida State running game has a big day against a BC defense that is just 60th in rush play success rate and allowing 15.5 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Only trouble with rostering Ward is he’s in a timeshare with Trey Benson, and even Lawrence Toafili, in the FSU backfield.
Fade – QB Jordan Travis ($8,600) Travis will start tonight as reported by ESPN and looked good in practices open to the media this week. Because it was a lower body injury to Travis, will he be utilizing his legs at all this week? And even then, he’s only rushed for 32 yards in three games. Too high a price for Travis this week with some uncertainty in a game total that suggests we can mostly fade this game.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – WR Mycah Pittman ($5,100) Johnny Wilson had a breakout game against Louisville. Ontaria Wilson had one the week prior. Time for Mycah Pittman? Third on the team in targets with 11, but finally at a pricing where maybe we can consider rostering the former Oregon transfer. Random observation, but the FSU beat writer said that Pittman was a focal point of Wednesday’s practice session open to the media. Maybe a sign of a big week?
Best of the Rest – RB Trey Benson ($5,100) If we think FSU is going to dominate this matchup, Benson should get 10-12 carries as he has much of this season splitting time with Ward. And has looked very good in doing so, averaging 7.0 yards per carry. The Seminoles are spreading the ball around far less this season in the passing game, with the top three receivers accounting for 52% of the target share. Pittman, Johnny Wilson and Ontaria Wilson are all options.
Injury Notes – n/a
USC vs. Oregon State
Point-Spread: USC -6
O/U Total: 70.5
Implied Score: USC 38 – Oreg St 32.5
Weather: 83 degrees / 0% rain / 8 mph winds
USC:
Top Play(s) – QB Caleb Williams ($10,200) Tough pill to swallow with that exorbitant pricing but Williams is our highest projected player of the entire weekend, facing a defense that is allowing 26.7 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks and have done very little in terms of pressuring the passer. Think you’ll need to bite the bullet here and find salary savers elsewhere to be able to fit Williams.
Fade – RB Austin Jones ($6,000) Jones has gotten considerable run in the first three weeks and performed well with the opportunity, averaging 17.8 FPPG with three total touchdowns. What’s Jones’ workload like compared to Travis Dye in a game that USC isn’t up by multiple scores as they have been in the first three weeks? There really isn’t a realistic argument to be made for Jones this week at his pricing for a running back in a time share.
Bargain Bin – WR Brenden Rice ($3,800) would be the extreme longshot play as he’s on the field for 61% of the offensive snaps, more than double the next closest USC receiver. So, there’s realistically separation from the top three.
Pivot Play – RB Travis Dye ($7,600) Dye has made the most of his limited reps the last two weeks, topping 100 yards against both Fresno State and Stanford while getting just 25 combined carries in the two games. Oregon State is allowing 20.8 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season and are 101st in rush play success rate. The USC offensive line has arguably been the biggest surprise in the country, ranking No. 1 overall in line yards created.
Best of the Rest – Lincoln Riley’s version of CeeDee Lamb and Marquise Brown. We’re seeing separation at the top where WR Mario Williams ($6,800) and WR Jordan Addison ($10,300) are now accounting for 45% of the team target share, with the next closest being running back Travis Dye with eight targets. Don’t see a way how you can realistically pair Addison and Caleb Williams together, so we might see higher ownership than normal with Williams tonight.
Injury Notes – n/a
Oregon State:
Top Play(s) – RB Deshaun Fenwick ($5,500) Fenwick is not the true bellcow we’ve seen from Oregon State in year’s past, but is the RB1 for now, averaging over five yards a carry in three games. USC has been below-average defending the run thus far, allowing 20.0 FPPG to opposing RB1s and are 104th in rush play success rate defensively. Oregon State’s offensive line has not played up to par yet, ranking just 48th in line yards. They were the No. 1 group in the country a year ago in that statistic.
Fade – WR Tyjon Lindsey ($6,100) Lindsey is the fourth or fifth option in the Oregon State passing game, and that’s not even based on just targets. The senior receiver has played just 41% of the offensive snaps. There are better options among Oregon State wideouts such as…
Bargain Bin – WR Anthony Gould ($4,500) Gould out-targeted and out-snapped Lindsey in each of the last two games. With no Musgrave in the lineup, Gould’s opportunities have increased in the passing game and is the secondary option behind Tre’Shaun Harrison. Gould leads the team with an aDOT of 19.6, averaging 23.5 yards per reception.
Pivot Play – QB Chance Nolan ($6,500) If there is a pivot play of this night slate, I think Nolan is the move as most will be on Fenwick with their lineups. Seven passing touchdowns in three games, coming off a career best five total scores in the win over Montana State. Of the two defensive components, the USC pass defense has been the better group, ranking 60th in pass play success rate and allowing just 11.1 FPPG to opposing QBs. The 70.5-point total hasn’t dropped this week, so maybe we get a shootout here?
Best of the Rest – WR Tre’Shaun Harrison ($5,400) Targets is far more concentrated in 2022 than it has been in year’s past with Harrison at 31% share as the team’s clear-cut WR1. Some areas to clean up with a team-high three drops, but he’ll be a major factor this week as Oregon State looks to keep pace with the USC offense.
Injury Notes – TE Luke Musgrave is out again due to injury. His replacement, Jake Overman, has just one reception this year.
