West Virginia vs. Virginia Tech
Point-Spread: WVU -2.5
O/U Total: 52.5
Implied Score: WVU 27.5 – Va Tech 25
Weather: 63 degrees / 14% rain / 9 mph winds
West Virginia:
Top Play(s) – WR Bryce Ford-Wheaton ($7,100) Won’t put a lot of stock into BFW’s numbers in a 65-7 blowout situation. Ford-Wheaton remains the WR1 for the Mountaineers and is tied for eighth in the country in total targets (37). Ford-Wheaton would be tied for fifth if you eliminated all of the receivers that have played four games too.
Fade – RB Tony Mathis Jr. ($5,800) Virginia Tech’s rush defense ranks No. 3 in the country through three games, allowing just 1.52 yards per carry. The caveat here is that they’ve faced Towson, Boston College and Old Dominion, where the latter two rank 126th or lower this season in rush offense. So those numbers are inflated for the Hokies given the competition, but Mathis has a 9.0 fantasy point projection this week which won’t cut it at his pricing.
Bargain Bin – “WR” C.J. Donaldson ($4,300) The CFF cheat code has made his way to DraftKings and is listed at a WR and is relatively inexpensive. Splendid. The true freshman is proving to be the best running back on the team, now averaging 10.9 yards per carry and topping 20 fantasy points in all three games this season. Donaldson’s efficiency numbers are off the charts, seeing half the amount of offensive snaps that Mathis does in the backfield, yet is out-producing him in nearly every metric.
Pivot Play – WR Kaden Prather ($5,400) As one that owns many shares in CFF of Kaden Prather, Week 1 was an utter disaster watching Prather with a drop against Pittsburgh and what seemed to be a lack of interest. The former 4-star has bounced back in recent weeks with six receptions in each of the last two games, targeted 17 times in that stretch.
Best of the Rest – WR Sam James ($5,900) We mentioned this in our CFF preseason guide, but OC Graham Harrell typically utilizes just three receivers in the passing game, as we saw frequently back at USC. And we’re seeing that exact situation play out this year with the trio of James, Prather and Wheaton now combining for 65% of the team target share. Right in line with Harrell’s WR usage with the Trojans. QB JT Daniels ($7,000) is a high floor / low ceiling play that I’ll probably avoid here at his pricing. Completing 65% of his passes, but this game total isn’t where we’d want it for a quarterback that doesn’t run at all. Virginia Tech is actually No. 1 nationally in pass defense success rate (again have to factor in competition faced too).
Injury Notes – n/a
Virginia Tech:
Top Play(s) – RB Keshawn King ($6,000) Was held out much of last week, mostly for precautionary reasons in Virginia Tech’s blowout over Wofford, but still managed 64 yards on four carries. Listed as probable, King should be good to go for Thursday night and will have to carry the load again with Malachi Thomas being unavailable. Offenses are averaging just 3.38 YPC against the Mountaineers, but WV is giving up 25.9 FPPG to opposing RB1s so far.
Fade – WR Stephen Gosnell ($3,500) With Jadan Blue’s emergence and movement up the depth chart, someone had to take the fall. Gosnell was the guy, now sitting second string behind Da’Wain Lofton. Fourth on the team in targets, but just your run of the mill possession receiver.
Bargain Bin – WR Christian Moss ($3,000) I think the only person to watch the Virginia Tech – Wofford matchup was friend of the site, Christopher Kay, who mentioned to me that the freshman receiver got a bunch of early snaps on Saturday. The 6-foot-3 redshirt freshman hauled in five receptions for 50 yards on six targets in his first extended playing time of his college career. Keep an eye on the Kaleb Smith injury here because Moss is listed behind him on the depth chart.
Pivot Play – WR Jadan Blue ($5,100) It was thought originally that the Temple transfer with over 100 career receptions would instantly become the Hokies’ WR1 to begin the year. Hasn’t transpired that way so far, but Blue had a major impact against Wofford with four receptions for 61 yards and a touchdown on six targets. He’s moved up the depth chart following the performance, now listed as a starter.
Best of the Rest – TE Nick Gallo ($3,100) Strange that the team leader in receptions and targets is one of the cheapest pass-catching option for the Hokies. Both HC Brent Pry and OC Tyler Bowen come from the Penn State coaching tree where they utilized tight ends heavily. 20-point projection this week for QB Grant Wells ($6,800) who provides very little upside given the lack of weapons he has at WR in a passing game that is still in its infancy stage.
Injury Notes – WR Kaleb Smith ($5,200) Smith left last week before halftime for reasons that have not been specified, according to the Athletic. Sounds like multiple ailments are bothering the Virginia Tech WR1, including a rib and knee injury.
Coastal Carolina vs. Georgia State
Point-Spread: Coastal -2.5
O/U Total: 63.5
Implied Score: Coastal 33 – Georgia St 30.5
Weather: 89 degrees / 0% rain / 13 mph winds
Coastal Carolina:
Top Play(s) – QB Grayson McCall ($8,000) Fine start to the year for McCall, averaging 26.2 FPPG and a completion percentage over 70%. Hence why McCall is fourth in the country in passer rating through three games. Matchup favors the junior quarterback here against a Georgia State defense that has struggled to defend the pass, allowing over 400 yards and five TDs last week to Charlotte. The Panthers are 108th in pass play success rate and allowing 29 FPPG to opposing QBs to start the year.
Fade – WR Jared Brown ($4,400) Brown was questionable last week with illness, but wound up playing 42 snaps against Buffalo. Sits second on the team in targets (12) but everything is around the line of scrimmage with a 2.7 aDOT. You need a hell of a lot more targets than what he’s getting to reach value if you’re not producing big plays.
Bargain Bin – TE Jacob Jenkins ($3,000) All offseason we were wondering if there was a candidate at tight end to replace the production of Isaiah Likely. Doesn’t seem “likely” that Coastal has a guy, but junior Jacob Jenkins has been targeted five times in the last two games, resulting in a pair of touchdowns. Played just 15 of 56 offensive snaps, though, last week vs. Buffalo as the Chants are utilizing more 3-WR sets than in year’s past.
Pivot Play – RB Reese White ($5,300) DFS players might flock to RB CJ Beasley ($4,200) after his career-day last week with 150 total yards and two touchdowns. And this is not to say we cannot roster him because we’ve seen in year’s past how Coastal will get multiple running backs involved in the offense. But his increased usage was largely due to two fumbles by White. Listening to Chadwell post-game, I don’t think this is a situation where White is going to be usurped because of the mishaps.
Best of the Rest – WR Tyson Mobley ($5,500) Don’t like relying on players at this type of price that are touchdown-dependent. And that’s what Mobley is right now. Did find the end-zone three times in the last two games but targeted just five times in the span as the third or fourth option in the passing game. WR Sam Pinckney ($6,500) is having a rebound season in the Jaivon Heiligh role,
Injury Notes – Don’t have any inside information here as to when RB Braydon Bennett ($6,100) will return to the field after missing the first three games but doesn’t sound like it will be anytime soon. HC Jamey Chadwell stated on his weekly radio show that Bennett would be out longer than expected. Shame, because Coastal needs him.
Georgia State:
Top Play(s) – QB Darren Grainger ($5,800) Tommy DeVito $3k more expensive than Darren Grainger? That’s a database glitch spitting out numbers without any common sense or rationale. The junior quarterback has looked exceptional the last two weeks, completing 65% of his passes with seven total touchdowns. Granted, that production has come against two of the worst defenses in the country in Charlotte and North Carolina, but its not as though Coastal Carolina is the steel curtain. 25-point projection at his salary makes Grainger a near lock this week.
Fade – WRs Not Named Jamari Thrash ($5,000) or Robert Lewis ($4,600) Feel free to choose whichever player your heart desires between Thrash or Lewis…or even both. But there is nobody else to consider in the Georgia State passing game as the WR duo combines for 63% of the team’s total target share. No other receiver has double digit targets. Thrash leads the team with 31 targets and tied at the top with most offensive snaps played. Lewis is not far behind in targets (21) and leads the Panthers in receiving touchdowns (4).
Bargain Bin – RB Marcus Carroll ($4,000) Carroll saw a season-high 15 attempts for 94 yards in the loss to Charlotte last week, getting more playing time than backup Jamyest Williams. Sign of things to come? Sounds like Shawn Elliott will ride the hot hand in the backfield because of the team’s depth at the position, so playing Carroll could potentially go sideways if he doesn’t produce…or someone else does.
Pivot Play – RB Jamyest Williams ($4,500) Season-lows for Williams against Charlotte with just seven carries on 18 offensive snaps, finishing third behind starter Tucker Gregg and the aforementioned Carroll. Could be a three-way split in the Georgia State backfield, but they’re all relevant because the Panthers are 17th nationally in run play percentage (62%).
Best of the Rest – RB Tucker Gregg ($4,800) Gregg leads the team, averaging 17.3 carries per game, and to his credit, has averaged over four yards a carry in each of the last two games. Seems to be the most trusted option of the three running backs by the coaches. Of the two defensive phases, the Chanticleers have been far better defending the run, allowing just 2.77 YPC and 50th in rush play success rate.
Injury Notes – n/a
Chattanooga vs. Illinois
Point-Spread: n/a
O/U Total: n/a
Implied Score: n/a
Weather: 61 degrees / 0% rain / 10 mph winds
Chattanooga:
Familiar face with QB Preston Hutchinson ($5,100), formerly of Eastern Michigan, leading the the Mocs to an impressive 3-0 start to begin 2022. Hutchinson accounted for five touchdowns last time out against North Alabama and can be a dangerous dual-threat as he rushed for eight scores back in 2019 with the Eagles. Chattanooga does not have a clear-cut WR1 with both Sam Phillips ($3,800) and Jamoi Mayes ($3,800) leading the team with 14 targets a piece, but accounts for just 18% target share. Hutchinson will spread it around. WR Javin Whatley ($3,900) is the third option at WR with 10 targets in just two games. Just one option in the Mocs’ backfield with RB Aliym Ford ($4,100) who accounts for 58% of the volume share. Six total touchdowns (4 rush / 2 receiving ) in the first three weeks as the best player Chattanooga has on offense. The Illini have dominated opposing rush offenses since the opening week, allowing under two yards a carry to both Indiana and Virginia.
Illinois:
Top Play(s) – RB Chase Brown ($6,900) 90% ownership in all formats, even the main GPP. Really no reason not to play Brown other than to be contrarian.
Fade – RB Reggie Love ($5,400) Sits second on the depth chart behind Brown with Josh McCray still ailing from the opening week injury. Had nine carries for 33 yards in the win over Virginia. If we get a blowout, Love will get run, but this is one of the better FCS programs so far in 2022. Only way Love would be considered is if he were at $3,400, not his current pricing.
Bargain Bin – TE Tip Reiman ($3,800) Fourth on the team in targets, and caught a touchdown pass last time out against Virginia. Has played 59% of the offensive snaps this season, running a route 35% of the time.
Pivot Play – QB Tommy DeVito ($8,800) No reason DeVito should be the highest-priced quarterback on the slate with the available options to us. DeVito, for me, would sit fourth among the QBs behind McCall, Grainger and Daniels. But I suppose he’ll see less than 10% ownership in GPPs and maybe Chattanooga sells out to stop the run on Thursday.
Best of the Rest – WR Isaiah Williams ($7,700) Continues to be the Illini’s top option in the passing game with 19 receptions, one touchdown and over 30% of the team’s total target share. Don’t mind spending up here, unlike at QB for DeVito which has very little rationale.
Injury Notes – n/a
