Houston @ Tulsa
Point-Spread: Tulsa -4.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Weather: degrees / 13% rain / 15 mph winds
Houston:
Having the 93rd ranked offense is not what Houston fans envisioned when they hired Dana Holgorsen. That ranking looks even worse when you consider the cupcake schedule they’ve faced to this point. After shaking off the rust against Navy, Clayton Tune had a strong second half, completing 18 of his final 21 passes, finishing the day with 257 yards and a TD. The biggest issue right now for Tune is the hamstring which kept him out of most of the Grambling State contest. An effective runner, Tune has just five carries in the last two games which diminishes much of his value.
Tulsa ranks just 94th in the country against the pass and are 97th in Pass Play Success Rate, but I don’t have a ton of confidence right now in the passing game with a limited Tune and the lack of playmakers at the wide receiver position. It’s so barren outside of Nathaniel Dell that Holgorsen moved Marcus Jones over from defense, and wound up being the only receiver to find the end-zone. Doesn’t look like he is available to us on DraftKings, but I believe Jones might move back to defense this week. Dell continues to be the team’s WR1 with 26 receptions on 38 targets, but I don’t have a great sense as to who is the secondary target beyond him? Maybe its tight end Christian Trahan who is 16th among FBS tight ends in receptions (14) and is second on the team in targets (18). Tulsa has not allowed an opposing tight end to score more than seven fantasy points in a game yet this year. Game week depth chart continues to show KeSean Carter and Jeremy Singleton as starters, but their impact has been minimal with a combined 10 catches on 19 targets. You see why Holgorsen gave a defensive back time at receiver last week.
Of course, just as we think Alton McCaskill was taking over the starting job for good in the Houston backfield, we get a wrench thrown at us with Ta’Zhawn Henry posting season-highs with 54 yards and two touchdowns on 11 attempts. McCaskill was still involved plenty with 74 yards on 17 carries, and this split does reflect more what we’ve seen from Holgorsen in the past back at West Virginia with the utilization of multiple backs. The Cougars currently rank 103rd nationally in rushing, and at 88th in Line Yards. Tulsa’s rush defense has been excellent outside of the 323 yards allowed to Ohio State in Week 3.
Tulsa:
Guess Brinsanity is here to stay then? After throwing for 428 yards on 54 attempts against Ohio State, Davis Brin followed that up with his best performance of the season, completing 68 percent of his throws for 355 yards and three touchdowns in a win over Arkansas State. Houston ranks third nationally at defending the pass, but considering they’ve faced Rice, Grambling, and Navy in consecutive weeks, that’s quite deceiving. Where the Cougars will cause issues for Brin is their defensive line that already has 12 sacks in four games, and Tulsa’s experienced offensive line is not living up to their preseason expectations, allowing 10 sacks already. Tulsa’s OL has also not given their running backs a ton of room on the ground either, ranking 85th in Stuff Rate and 125th in line yards. I do think both Shamari Brooks and Deneric Prince, in spite of the poor offensive line play, should find some success against the Cougars as they have against both UC Davis and Arkansas State, averaging over six yards a carry. Prince suffered an injured last week which led to the disparity in carries between the two, but Scottie Montgomery confirmed that Prince will be available on Friday. Prince held the slight edge in carries over Brooks in all three games leading up to last weekend, and is the preferred choice seemingly with all things being even.
Another situation to monitor at WR where Keylon Stokes has not played the last two weeks. No update at the moment as to whether he’ll be available. Not shortage of options with Josh Johnson, JuanCarlos Santana and Sam Crawford Jr. who all bring considerable experience. While Johnson holds the clear edge here with Stokes out, having 12 targets in each of the last two games, I don’t believe this situation is really any different than last season where no one player had more than 18 percent of the target share. All three are viable, along with Ezra Naylor should Stokes be out. Naylor played 65 percent of the available snaps last week vs. Arkansas State and 88 percent of the snaps vs. Ohio State. The clear 4th option behind the top three, but that’s a lot of on-field work for someone at $3,200.
Iowa @ Maryland
Point-Spread: Iowa -3
O/U Total: 48
Weather: 82 degrees / 13% rain / 15 mph winds
Iowa:
If there is a matchup on this 3-game slate that I’ll have the least exposure to, this is it. Tyler Goodson is averaging around 23 touches a game through the first month, up from 19 a year ago, but the offensive line is doing him no favors, ranking 121st nationally in Line Yards and 127th in Stuff Rate. We’ve seen a few more holes poked in the Maryland run defense the last two games, and the Terps could be without a starter or two this week at linebacker, but still a group that is allowing just 3.34 yards per carry on the year. Junior quarterback Spencer Petras has looked improved since last season, upping his completion percentage to 60 percent with just one interception through the first month. Still hasn’t topped 15 fantasy points in any week yet this season, and a road spot against an undefeated team seems unlikely to break that threshold (by a significant amount at least).
The Hawkeyes seemed to take a few more deep shots last week against CSU utilizing play-action, including a beautiful pass from Petras to star freshman Keagan Johnson that resulted in a 43-yard score. Johnson’s snap counts are still very low – around 10 a game – and has just four targets all year. Tight end Sam LaPorta continues to be a big presence in the passing game with 17 receptions and two touchdowns, tied for seventh most among tight ends in the country. Maryland has allowed just 1.1 total fantasy points to opposing tight ends all season, but that includes three teams in Illinois, West Virginia and Kent State who don’t utilize the position much in their offensive scheme. If that trend continues after this week? Start to take notice. Where in the world has Tyrone Tracy Jr. been? Played 44 of 56 snaps against Colorado State without a single target. Appears to be splitting time at the moment with former Buffalo transfer Charlie Jones, though he hasn’t been particularly active in the pass game either with just four catches on nine targets. Nico Ragaini has as many targets as Goodson does with 12 with an aDOT of just 9.2. Low-upside option.
Maryland:
The Terrapins’ offense has improved significantly since last season, averaging well over 500 yards per game, including 526 yards last Saturday in a 37-16 win over Kent State. Junior quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa continued his sweltering start to the year against the Flashes, completing 75 percent of his throw for 384 yards and three touchdowns, and has even been generating some Heisman Trophy talks with three 300-yard passing performances in four games. If this were last year, the Hawkeyes’ ball-hawking defense (+5 turnover margin) would hold a significant advantage, but Tagovailoa seems to have shored up those issues that plagued him as a sophomore with just one interception through the first month. Don’t love the matchup, though, against an Iowa defense that is 20th in Pass Play Success Rate.
While the accolades have gone to Tagovailoa and this passing attack, senior running back Tayon Fleet-Davis continues to provide balance on offense, averaging over seven yards a carry and already has 14 catches in four games out of the backfield. Tough sledding on Friday night against an Iowa defense that has yet to allow 100 yards in a game all season, and has held both Kent State and Colorado State to under two yards a carry in recent weeks. Pass-catching ability keeps him in the realm of possibilities, but I prefer cheaper options with better matchups.
Last week was a struggle for Maryland receivers who were credited with a season-high seven drops. Rakim Jarrett and Dontay Demus continue to dominate the target share (39 percent) and combine to average over 170 receiving yards per game with six of the 11 receiving touchdowns. Strange decision by DK with a $1,900 pricing discrepancy despite Demus having just four more targets on the year. Jeshaun Jones was listed in an OR situation with Darryl Jones last week, but has been the bigger factor in the passing game with 13 targets over the last two games. Jones (Darryl) has seen the field frequently, though, with nine targets in that same span. Brian Jones is a rotational player that has played just 19 percent of game snaps available. The Hawkeyes are allowing just 6.2 FPPG to opposing tight ends, and that includes both Charlie Kolar and Trey McBride. TE1 Chigoziem Okonkwo has just nine targets on the year, but had a season high 4-44-0 on five targets last week.
BYU @ Utah State
Point-Spread: BYU -8.5
O/U Total: 62
Weather: 82 degrees / 13% rain / 15 mph winds
BYU:
Head coach Kilani Sitake said he thinks starting QB Jaren Hall “will be available” after sitting out last week vs. USF with bruised ribs. OC Aaron Roderick said it was a close call to hold out Hall, so doesn’t sound as though the injury is all that serious, but coaches seem to be leaving the door open to starting Baylor Romney who was excellent last week with 305 yards and three touchdowns. Assuming Hall is a go, he’ll take on a Utah State defense that’s allowing 25.3 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season, and have allowed 199 rushing yards to quarterbacks this season. Hall is a QB that can take advantage of that, provided his ribs are 100 percent. With Hall in the backfield will be Tyler Allgeier who has four rushing TDs in four games, but his YPC average has dropped to 4.4 after averaging over seven yards an attempt his first three seasons on campus. Offensive line play is the obvious answer here, ranking 107th in Stuff Rate and 84th in Line Yards, though Utah State doesn’t have the front to take advantage, allowing nearly 200 yards per game on the ground. Allgeier is probably the player we should have the highest exposure of on Friday.
Washington transfer Puka Nacua posted his highest-graded performance of the season against USF per Pro Football Focus, saw a season-high in snaps, and topped 100 yards for the first time this season. Probably the third option still behind Gunner Romney and Neil Pau’u at receiver, but a sign maybe that he’s gaining confidence within the new offensive system? Romney found the end-zone for the third straight game, while Pau’u notched his four TD of the season to lead the team. Minimal difference between the two for me. Tight end Isaac Rex is confirming our preseason opinion as a regression candidate with just 10 targets and two touchdowns in four games. Maybe this will be similar to last year where Rex caught 11 touchdowns in the final seven games (just one in first five weeks)? I don’t think it’s necessarily anything Rex is doing but more a reflection of the strength at WR for BYU. Fullback Masen Wake caught all five targets for 24 yards and a touchdown vs. USF – just three targets in the first three weeks.
Utah State:
Quick PSA – Don’t search Logan Bonner on Twitter as you’ll be exposed to someone with that name that tweets WAYYYYYY too much.
Yes, last weekend was disappointing for many of us that fell for the $5,600 trap with Logan Bonner, but if there was one good piece of news to come out of that, it was the statements from head coach Blake Anderson who confirmed that Bonner is the starting QB and that it will remain a 1-QB system going forward. Criticize Bonner all you like, but having that clarity is a positive when looking at future slates. As for the matchup with BYU, its good but not great. The Cougars are 93rd in Defensive Pass Play Success Rate, which makes sense given they’re allowing opposing QBs to complete 70 percent of their passes, but haven’t allowing a touchdown in the last two games through the air. Biggest benefit to rostering Bonner or any Utah State player is how fast the offense is playing in 2021 under Anderson, ranking second nationally in plays per minute, sitting only behind Tennessee.
I am warming up Calvin Tyler Jr. this week who continues to be a revelation, sitting 22nd in the country, averaging 104 yards per game on the ground with four rushing TDs. BYU has not been good at defending the run thus far, ranking 111th in Defensive Rush Play Success Rate and six rushing TDs in the last three games. Tyler Jr. continues to dominate the rushing volume, accounting for 54 percent of the carries that have gone to Utah State running backs. Top three at WR seem to be established at this point with Deven Thompkins, Brandon Bowling and Justin McGriff dominating the target share the last two games (71 percent). Snap counts mirror the target share as well. When Utah State goes four-wide, Derek Wright and Savon Scarver are now splitting duties at the RWR spot. BYU ranks 40th in the country in fantasy points allowed to opposing WRs this season.