Virginia Tech vs. Miami
Point-Spread: UM -18.5
O/U Total: 55.5
Implied Score: UM 37 – VT 18.5
Weather: 84 degrees / 87% rain / 10 mph winds
Virginia Tech:
Top Play(s) – RB Bhayshul Tuten ($7,300) The coaching staff has been essentially shutting Tuten down during the week, putting him in bubble wrap (blue non-contact jersey), and then proceeding to give him 20 touches per game. Three straight 100-yard performances for Tuten who is far and away the team’s best option with the passing game struggles. Here’s even better news – Tuten was not in said blue jersey this week, meaning he practiced in full for the first time since Week 1.
Fade – RB Malachi Thomas ($3,800) Just like last year, the Va Tech run game is centered around just two players – Tuten and Kyron Drones. 75% of the carries belong to those to players. Barring injury, no other runner for the Hokies should be considered.
Bargain Bin – TE Benji Gosnell ($3,300) Gosnell plays 81% of the team’s offensive snaps, running a route 51% of the time. In passing situations where VT is trailing like we saw against Vandy in Week 1 and last Saturday against Rutgers, the Hokies will throw to the tight end, with six targets in each of those contests.
Pivot Play – WR Da’Quan Felton ($4,000) Team leader in routes run this season but hasn’t had the impact that he had in 2023 with fewer than 30 yards in all four games. We did finally see Virginia Tech push the ball down the field to Felton last week against Rutgers with a 19.7 aDOT, so maybe he’s due here for a long touchdown or reception.
Best of the Rest – QB Kyron Drones ($8,000) Can’t outright fade Drones with a small slate, but he’s been awful in 2024. Virginia Tech is 90th in pass play success rate, now facing a defense that is 8th in EPA per pass play defensively. With all that said, Drones’ running ability makes him a viable fantasy option and he’s the second-best QB option behind Ward. WR Jaylin Lane ($5,500) has been the most consistent Va Tech wide receiver this season.
Injury Notes – WR Ali Jennings ($3,600) Listed as probable, but still uncertain according to HC Brent Pry. Jennings will be a GTD depending on how he feels in pregame warmups. Like Tuten, Jennings is also in full practice uniform this week with no limitations so trending up.
Miami:
Top Play(s) – QB Cam Ward ($10,000) There is no reality (barring injury) where Ward is not in the winning lineup with the other three QBs available on the slate. Should have 99% ownership.
Fade – WR Jacolby George ($5,000) George was outshined last week by his teammates, catching just one pass on four targets with a drop and an ankle injury to boot. Though message boarders would claim George is “always” injured after a drop. No official report out as to George’s availability, but he’d be my fourth option among Miami wideouts.
Bargain Bin – TE Elijah Arroyo ($3,300) Arroyo’s 22 routes in Week 4 were third on the team behind Restrepo and Horton, playing 71% of the team’s offensive snaps. Virginia Tech struggled to defend the tight end position last week, allowing six catches on seven targets to Rutgers TE Kenny Fletcher. RB Jordan Lyle ($3,700) is showing to be Miami’s second best running back, with a touchdown in each of the last three games. Those did occur in three blowouts it should be noted.
Pivot Play – WR Isaiah Horton ($4,700) Season-highs for Horton last week with 8-108-1 on nine targets and proving to be Miami’s second-best receiver behind Xavier Restrepo. If we see any word that George is out or limited, Horton gets a massive boost. RB Damien Martinez ($5,700) fits this category as well, after his relative disappointing start to the year with just 34 rushing yards the last two weeks. Now into conference play, though, we should see Martinez’ workload ramp up here a bit. The Va Tech run defense has been below average, allowing a combined 32 fantasy points last week to Rutgers running backs. The Hokies are 59th in rush D success rate.
Best of the Rest – WR Xavier Restrepo ($7,500) Far and away the best wide receiver option on the slate. Similar to Ward, no real reason as to why Restrepo should not be in your lineup aside from differentiation in GPPs. WR Samuel Brown ($4,400) plays 70% of the team’s offensive snaps and is second behind Restrepo in routes run. Three drops in four games has limited Brown’s production.
Injury Notes – n/a
Washington vs. Rutgers
Point-Spread: Rutg -2.5
O/U Total: 46.5
Implied Score: Rutg 24.5 – UW 22
Weather: 68 degrees / 11% rain / 4 mph winds
Washington:
Top Play(s) – WR Denzel Boston ($6,400) It’s been a very profitable last two weeks on the player prop market with Boston hitting his overs with 15 receptions on 19 targets, capped last week by 121 yards and two scores vs. Northwestern. Offseason reports of Boston being UW’s WR1 seem to be coming to fruition. The redshirt freshman plays over 90% of the team’s offensive snaps on a weekly basis.
Fade – QB Will Rogers ($7,400) Here’s a good opportunity to call out a couple things for this slate regarding the QB position. (1) No, this is not a mandatory 2-QB Slate, and it might be optimal to play without a second one. (2) You can’t outright fade either of the four QBs, but lessening your exposure with Rogers this week might be wise, despite the fact he’s third in the country in passing percentage with eight passing TDs and zero INTs. Rutgers’ strength is on the back end, ranking 18th in pass D success rate and the most fantasy points allowed to a QB so far was just 12.9 to Akron’s Ben Finley.
Bargain Bin – TEs. Keleki Latu is averaging just over three targets per game, while playing 100% of the team’s offensive snaps in two of the last three contests. Freshman Decker DeGraaf has two of the team’s nine receiving touchdowns in 2024 and is the fifth highest rated true freshman (regardless of position) according to PFF grades.
Pivot Play – RB Jonah Coleman ($7,100) Monangai and Tuten probably see the most ownership of the top-tier running backs, and for good reason, but this is a matchup statistically that can favor Coleman. Rutgers’ front seven has struggled defending the run so far, ranked 100th in rush D success rate, and allowing 30 fantasy points last week to Tuten. Coleman is mostly dominating the backfield market share for the Huskies at 42%.
Best of the Rest – WR Giles Jackson ($5,800) Boston has been the headliner the last two weeks, but Jackson isn’t far behind still, ranked second on the team with 29 targets and an absurd 93% catch rate. Jackson and Boston in the same lineup is a potential GPP because of how top-heavy the targets are for UW. WR Jeremiah Hunter ($4,000) is a distant fourth in targets (15) but plays over 70% of the offensive snaps. The top three rarely come off the field.
Injury Notes – n/a
Rutgers:
Top Play(s) – RB Kyle Monangai ($7,600) No major explanation needed here. Monangai is tied for eighth nationally in carries and third in yards per game. Washington’s rush defense has been the weaker of the two components on that side of the ball.
Fade – WR Chris Long ($3,300) Have to look for any little possible edge you can find on a two-game slate. And while it probably doesn’t matter in grand scheme, given that it’s the Rutgers passing game, it was noticeable the sharp drop in playing time that Long saw against Virginia Tech, finishing with zero receptions on two targets. Benefitting was redshirt freshman Ben Black who saw a season-best 42% of snaps that game. Probably best to avoid the WR3 or WR4 for Rutgers entirely.
Bargain Bin – TE Kenny Fletcher ($3,500) Volume was minimal for Fletcher the first two weeks with a combined five targets but found the end-zone twice. This week, Fletcher failed to find paydirt yet was targeted eight times with seven receptions.
Pivot Play – RB Samuel Brown V ($5,200) Remember two offseasons ago when it was Brown and not Monangai projected to be the team’s RB1 and next 1,000-yard rusher? Injuries played a major role in that not happening for Brown, but he looked like the 2022 version of himself this past week with 60 yards and two scores on 14 carries. In the two games that Brown has played in this season, he’s got 14 attempts in each, so clearly the staff feels like they have two capable RBs on the roster. Having both RBs in a lineup is a major risk but could be GPP winning if Rutgers blows out Washington at home.
Best of the Rest – WR Dymere Miller ($4,000) A Rutgers receiver averaging seven targets per game? In this economy? The Monmouth transfer has far and away been Rutgers’ best receiving option, scoring double-digit fantasy points in all three contests to begin the year. QB Athan Kaliakmanis ($6,000) is the fourth option amongst the QBs here, and the matchup isn’t great with Washington ranking 7th in pass D success rate. Had some struggles with Washington State’s John Mateer but held Eastern Michigan and Northwestern’s QB1s to under five fantasy points each. WR Ian Strong ($3,400) is tied for second in targets and second in routes run, coming off his first 100-yard performance vs. Virginia Tech.
Injury Notes – n/a
