Louisville vs. NC State
Point-Spread: UL -3.5
O/U Total: 55.5
Implied Score: UL 29.5 – NC St 26
Weather: 71 degrees / 13% rain / 11 mph winds
Louisville:
Top Play(s) – WR Jamari Thrash ($6,600) If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. We’re going to the Jamari Thrash play yet again until it fails us, now scoring 18 or more fantasy points in every game this season and accounting for 25% of the team’s target share. NC State has now allowed a 100-yard receiver in three out of its first four games after Virginia’s Malik Washington went for 10-170-2 last week.
Fade – WR Ahmari Huggins-Bruce ($4,800) Prove a second time, AHB. Dead wrong last week in fading Huggins-Bruce as he went for over 100 receiving yards and two scores in the win over Boston College. What’s deceiving about that stat line, though, is that Huggins-Bruce only ran six routes on 19 of 66 offensive snaps. This is not sustainable production.
Bargain Bin – WR Chris Bell ($3,500) Don’t follow Louisville closely enough to know the inner workings of their wide receiver rotations, but notable that Bell played triple the number of offensive snaps that previous starter Jimmy Calloway did last week. Has there not been enough production opposite Jamari Thrash on the outside and Jeff Brohm is trying different combinations?
Pivot Play – WR Kevin Coleman ($4,400) Production hasn’t really been there, but I do find it notable that Coleman is the listed starter in the slot over Huggins-Bruce and played almost double the snaps AHB did last week against BC.
Best of the Rest – RB Jawhar Jordan ($7,000) Three-straight 100-yard rushing performances for Jordan who has accounted now for 48% of the rushing attempts that have gone to Louisville running backs. Wasn’t sure in the preseason that Jordan could handle such a workload at 185 pounds, but you can see why its tough to take him off the field, averaging nearly 10 yards per attempt. UConn’s Victor Rosa and Notre Dame’s Audric Estime both scored over 24 fantasy points in their matchups with NC State. The pass D of the Wolfpack has been only marginally better, allowing 24 FPPG to P5 quarterbacks. High floor play only with QB Jack Plummer ($8,500) who we only have at a 20-point projection in a competitive matchup that should go back and forth a bit.
Injury Notes – n/a
NC State:
Top Play(s) – QB Brennan Armstrong ($8,700) We know Armstrong is a good play this week with a 25-point projection with *very* questionable quarterback situations elsewhere on the slate. But how good a play is he? Well, two QBs with very similar quarterbacking styles in Thomas Castellanos and Haynes King combined for 60 fantasy points against this Louisville defense who is 113th in EPA per pass play. Not to mention the rushing floor Armstrong provides and should increase as NC State is down a starting running back now.
Fade – WR Keyon Lesane ($5,400) AND RB Michael Allen ($5,800) If Lesane was $3.4k, we would still be advising to fade him. So you know what we think with his inflated $5.4k salary for absolutely no reason at all. There’s a reason we bet the unders on his player props every week he’s listed. Allen takes over the RB1 roll with Jordan Houston transferring. OC Robert Anae usually only gives his RB1s-10-12 carries a game, splitting with the RB2 and quarterback. That already disinterests us. Now add in that Allen gives way to RB Delbert Mimms ($5,700) who has become a goal-line specialist for the Wolfpack with four rushing scores.
Bargain Bin – WR Bradley Rozner ($3,700) I’m just ready for this NC State coaching staff to play its best players at the wide receiver position. The Rice transfer is playing considerably fewer snaps than Lesane, Porter Rooks and Julian Gray who have a combined 24 receptions between them. Not getting it done. Rozner, meanwhile, has found the end-zone twice in the last three games.
Pivot Play – n/a.
Best of the Rest – WR KC Concepcion ($6,400) The true freshman has been the one constant in the NC State wide receiver room, and finally had his breakout performance last week with 116 yards and two scores on nine targets. Thought to be just a possession receiver, it was nice to see them target Concepcion down the field more with a 13.7 aDOT in the Virginia matchup. Hopefully that continues. Six receivers have scored double-digit fantasy points on Louisville this season.
Injury Notes – n/a
Utah vs. Oregon State
Point-Spread: OSU -3
O/U Total: 45.5
Implied Score: OSU 24 – Utah 21
Weather: 58 degrees / 36% rain / 10 mph winds
Utah:
Top Play(s) – RB Jaylon Glover ($5,000) Essentially the last man standing in the Utah running back room with the surplus of injuries. We know Glover will get 15-20 touches. The question becomes what does he do with them against the Oregon State front seven? The Beavers are allowing just 8.1 FPPG to opposing RB1s so far but must consider the fact they’ve faced an Air Raid team in Washington State who doesn’t run the football, and two G5 schools who are bottom third in the country (San Jose State / San Diego State) in rushing. Oregon State is 79th in rush D success rate. Glover is an option, particularly if Jackson is ruled out.
Fade – WR Devaughn Vele ($5,300) Will always fade the highest-priced Utah receiver, unless Cam Rising is in fact playing (TBD). Vele has fallen to third on the team in targets (11) and yet to find the end-zone in 2023.
Bargain Bin – TE Thomas Yassmin ($3,300) Longest of longshots here. No doubt due in part to the QB situation, but still strange to see the tight end position be almost completely irrelevant given the talent in the room. Yassmin was called out this week by the coaching staff, moreso for his lack of physicality as a blocker, but has yet to have more than 15 receiving yards in a game this season. You just wonder if he gets involved sooner or later.
Pivot Play – WR Mikey Matthews ($5,000) I’d say it’s a testament to how effective the true freshman receiver has been that Matthews has played just 50% of so of the offensive snaps yet leads the team with 18 targets. He’ll see consistent playing time as long as Mycah Pittman remains out due to injury.
Best of the Rest – QB Nate Johnson ($7,400) We thought Cam Rising would return last week with the Vegas line movement adjusting considerably in favor of the Utes. Turns out it was just bettors fading Dante Moore against a Top 5 defense – smart move. We’ll see if Rising makes his return this week, but with a bye upcoming and Johnson playing winning football, we can envision Rising sitting another game. If and when Rising does return, it sounds as though Johnson will remain a part of the offensive game plan in a situational role which limits both player’s values.
Injury Notes – RB Ja’Quinden Jackson ($5,600) While not officially listed as out, the tea leaves are pointing in the direction of Jackson sitting on Friday with a lingering ankle issue that has bothered him since the Florida game in Week 1. With a bye week upcoming, sounds as though the Utes might shelve their RB1 to get ready for the conference stretch run.
Ohio State:
Top Play(s) – RB Damien Martinez ($6,700) Oregon State has had 11 straight games where they’ve produced a 100-yard rusher. Last week was just the Deshaun Fenwick ($6,000) game, rushing for 101 yards and three touchdowns on 11 carries. While he’ll still receive 8-10 carries a game, there shouldn’t be any concern for the RB1 moving forward. As for this matchup, its strength on strength. Oregon State is No. 2 in rush play success rate, largely due to the offensive line which is routinely a strength under head coach Jonathan Smith. Utah, on the other hand, is allowing just 8.0 fantasy points to opposing RB1s.
Fade – QB D.J. Uiagalelei ($8,200) We saw the Clemson version of DJU last week, completing just 50% of his passes, and didn’t throw the touchdown until garbage time late in the game. Still offers rushing upside with a TD on the ground in every game this season, but I can’t trust DJU against this defense that is 9th in pass D success rate and allowing only 14.1 FPPG to opposing QB1s.
Bargain Bin – TE Jack Velling ($3,800) The talented 6-foot-4 tight end has been targeted five times in three of the four games played in 2023, while finding the end-zone twice. Utah is allowing just over seven fantasy points to opposing tight ends.
Pivot Play – WR Anthony Gould ($5,900) and/or Silas Bolden ($5,800) Centralized target share for the Beavers with Gould/Bolden combining for 41% of the team’s receptions. Outside of that duo and Velling, Oregon State doesn’t throw the ball much to anyone else. And they won’t be able to ground n’ pound their way to a victory like most weeks against this front seven.
Best of the Rest – n/a. Not considering anyone that isn’t listed above.
Injury Notes – n/a
Louisiana Tech vs. UTEP
Point-Spread: UTEP -1
O/U Total: 53
Implied Score: UTEP 27 – La Tech 26
Weather: 86 degrees / 23% rain / 12 mph winds
Louisiana Tech:
Top Play(s) – WR Smoke Harris ($6,800) and/or Cyrus Allen ($6,200) The talented duo is dominating the target share for Louisiana Tech at 43% with five of the team’s seven receiving touchdowns. For that reason, I have no issue if want either Harris or Allen solo in a lineup or stack the two together. Allen has been excellent since returning from injury, commanding 10 targets in each of the last two games while finding the end-zone twice. He’s the big-play threat of the two, facing a secondary that’s allowed nine plays this season of 25+ yards or more.
Fade – WR Tru Edwards ($3,200) See below on De’Coldest Crawford. Edwards and Crawford split snaps evenly for the first time this season and we might see a change at the WR3 position moving forward.
Bargain Bin – WR De’Coldest Crawford ($3,200) Outside of Harris and Allen, Louisiana Tech has gotten next to nothing out of the other receivers on the roster. Crawford, a former 4-star prospect, ran 25 routes last week against Nebraska which was a season-high for him, target three times. Doesn’t move the meter much at all, but you wonder if Crawford sees his playing time increase because of the lack of production from the other La Tech receivers. Major risk rostering any wideouts outside of Allen and Harris.
Pivot Play – RB1 If I must, I will subscribe again to the Louisiana Tech Rivals site to get intel on this RB situation because injuries have mounted. We know freshman Keith Willis is out. Haven’t seen an update on Marquis Crosby recently. Tyre Shelton is averaging 10.2 yards per carry in two games. The problem is that he’s only played in two games, not seeing the field against Nebraska in Week 4. His status could be the determining factor on the slate – not being sarcastic – as UTEP is allowing the fifth most FPPG to opposing backfields in the country. If Shelton is unavailable, RB Jacob Fields ($3,700) is the likely starter.
Best of the Rest – WR Koby Duru ($4,000) We’ll see if we can uncover any information here if Duru is available or not for Friday. Has not played in the last two games, but when on the field, he’s been the most productive player outside of Allen/Harris with two touchdowns in two games. We’ll dig as best we can before game time.
Injury Notes – QB Hank Bachmeier ($5,800) Questionable for Friday with a shoulder injury. Jack Turner ($5,400) would get the start in Bachmeier’s place, and I think the offense has been operating at a better rate with him under center. Turner has completed 64% of his passes in each of the last two games, hasn’t taken a sack yet (Bachmeier sacked nine times) and is completing 7.67 yards per dropback (6.19 for Bachmeier). All the advanced measures rank Turner over Bachmeier right now.
UTEP:
Top Play(s) – RB Torrance Burgess Jr. ($5,900) Deion Hankins wasn’t getting it done, averaging just 3.0 yards per carry this season in games not against Incarnate Word. In comes Torrance Burgess Jr. last week against UNLV, accumulating 99 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries. Over the last two games, Burgess has over 200 yards of total offense because of his productivity in the passing game with six receptions on nine targets.
Fade – RB Deion Hankins ($4,900) See above. HC Dana Dimel’s hotseat has reached lava-like temperatures and needs players on the field that yield results. FWIW – Hankins was limited last week despite being suited up.
Bargain Bin – WR Marcus Bellon ($4,100) Started in place of Tyrin Smith vs. UNLV, playing 100% of his reps in the slot, catching four passes on a team-high nine targets. He gets downgraded if Smith plays.
Pivot Play – WR Kelly Akharaiyi ($4,900) Targets have been consistent with six or more in four of his five games played. Would operate as the WR1 for the Miners should Tyrin Smith not be available. Louisiana Tech has actually been very good against the pass this season, allowing just 14.7 FPPG to opposing WR1s and 16th in pass D success rate.
Best of the Rest – QB Gavin Hardison ($6,100) You wonder if UTEP is going to give someone else a shot at starting soon, and this might be the perfect opportunity with Hardison not at 100% as he had a sleeve on his throwing arm in practice. Despite the favorable matchup, Hardison ranks 8-of-8 among the possible QBs for us on this slate as he’s completing just 50% of his passes, is a non-runner, and might be without his best WR.
Injury Notes – WR Tyrin Smith ($5,700) Smith was not seen in warmups last weekend after initially being considered a game-time decision. We’ll be sideline watching again on Friday.
Cincinnati vs. BYU
Point-Spread: BYU -2.5
O/U Total: 50
Implied Score: BYU 26 – Cin 24
Weather: 71 degrees / 6% rain / 12 mph winds
Cincinnati:
Top Play(s) – WR Xzavier Henderson ($6,000) Normally this would be Emory Jones, but not sure I will play him much in this matchup (more below). Henderson has been the clear top option in the passing game for Cincy all year, now with 23 of his 33 targets coming in the last two games with the Bearcats in a trailing position. Minimal spread, but Cincinnati is again an underdog on Saturday.
Fade – RB Corey Kiner ($4,700) That last two games for Kiner have looked awfully similar to last season with a heavy rotation in the Cincinnati backfield and the former LSU transfer putting up minimal results. To be fair to Kiner, the offensive line hasn’t played all that well, ranking 82nd in stuff rate and 60th in line yards. We’re seeing too much of backups Ryan Montgomery and Myles Montgomery lately, along with Jones’ usage in the running game, to have much exposure to Kiner in a less-than-favorable matchup.
Bargain Bin – WR Braden Smith ($4,200) Condensed target funnel for the Cincinnati passing attack with the top three of Henderson, Smith, and Dee Wiggins ($4,500) combining for 63% of the team’s targets and five of eight receiving touchdowns. Would limit it to just one Cincinnati receiver in a lineup. This is Emory Jones throwing them the football after all
Pivot Play – TE Chamon Metayer ($3,200) The talented tight end hasn’t lived up to his potential but played the most snaps of the season last week against Oklahoma, catching three passes on five targets. BYU is allowing 9.8 FPPG to opposing TE1s – 25th most in the country.
Best of the Rest – QB Emory Jones ($6,900) Jones does projected the highest among Cincinnati players for us, but matchup isn’t great. BYU’s defense is only allowing 13.4 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks this season and limited a player of a similar skillset in KJ Jefferson to just 13.9 fantasy points in their matchup. You’ll always get the rushing floor with Jones, but the passing still leaves much to be desired.
Injury Notes – n/a
BYU:
Top Play(s) – TE Isaac Rex ($4,700) Rarified territory if you’re a tight end designated as a top play. Rex is second among all tight ends nationally in targets per game (8.5) and leads the Cougars with 34.
Fade – LJ Martin ($5,100) Wouldn’t call an outright fade but have limited exposure here with the true freshman running back. BYU has been pitiful running the football this season, ranking 122nd in Line Yards and 128th in rush play success rate. Conversely, Cincinnati is giving up just 7.2 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season and have a top 30 rush defense.
Bargain Bin – WR Keanu Hill ($4,300) Injuries have limited Hill this season but played a season-high 59 of 75 offensive snaps last week against Kansas. Despite being a multi-year starter for BYU, Hill is probably fifth on the pecking order among pass-catchers for the Cougars.
Pivot Play – QB Kedon Slovis ($6,700) Never thought these words would come out of my mouth. Slovis might be playable here, given how poorly the Cougars have run the football this season, and that was on full display last weekend with 51 pass attempts. Cincinnati is allowing 23.4 FPPG to opposing QB1s, including 29 fantasy points to a MAC quarterback in Brett Gabbert. All pass defense metric for Cincy paint the same picture – this is an average pass D.
Best of the Rest – WR Darius Lassiter ($5,100) We do have Lassiter projected higher than Isaac Rex, but the potential for BYU’s WR1 to return to the lineup on Saturday (see below) downgrades everyone slightly in this room. The former Eastern Michigan transfer has filled in nicely with two touchdowns in the last three games, averaging seven targets per. Almost identical numbers for fellow starter Chase Roberts ($4,600). It’ll be interesting to see who shifts where if Kody Epps is back in the lineup. Does Lassiter move outside opposite Roberts with Epps in the slot?
Injury Notes – WR Kody Epps ($3,500) GPP play here as Epps was a game-time decision last weekend yet did not play a snap. He was warming up on the field, so would assume he’s close to a return. Was BYU’s best receiver in 2022.
