Arkansas @ Georgia
Point-Spread: UGA -18
O/U Total: 49.5
Weather: 72 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
Arkansas:
The Razorbacks have been a great story in the early portion of the season, but this will be their first true road game test in Athens with College Gameday on hand. KJ Jefferson feels like an easy fade this week given his questionable status, though head coach Sam Pittman has indicated he will play. The UGA defense has allowed all of 23 points total this season and are giving up just 6.3 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks – best in the nation. To be fair, we said much of the same last week against a stout Texas A&M defense, and the Razorbacks put up 307 total yards of offense in the first half against the Aggies, but this feels like a far more difficult task at UGA.
Arkansas now ranks eighth in the country, averaging 261 yards per game on the ground, but they don’t have the advantage this week in any advanced metric. The Dawgs are No. 1 in Power Success, 10th in Defensive Line Yards, and 4th in Run Play Success Rate. For as good as the Arkansas run game has been, they’re just 52nd in Line Yards. While the Razorbacks have some newfound depth in the backfield, getting touches for Dominique Johnson, A.J. Green and Raheim Sanders in recent weeks, it’s Trelon Smith that has dominated the volume (47 percent) in Arkansas’ two competitive matchups this season. For some reason, Smith is severely underutilized in the passing game for someone that had 32 targets a year ago.
Treylon Burks was at practice early in the week which is a positive sign given how we saw him leave the field vs. Texas A&M, but won’t know for sure if he’s playing until pregame. I would limit my exposure with Burks for multiple reasons, but should he be available, he’s starting to hit his stride with back-to-back 100-yard performances. Jefferson has four touchdown passes of over 48 yards in the last two games, and Burks’ is the team’s deep threat with a 19.1 aDOT. IF there is a weakness to the UGA defense, it’s on the backend. Tyson Morris, De’Vion Warren and true FR Ketron Jackson Jr. were the only other WRs to see targets last week, with Morris finding the end-zone. If Burks were to be unavailable, Warren would kick inside to the slot where he did find success during a two-game stretch in 2020 with three touchdowns against Mississippi State and Auburn. Morris is averaging over 24 yards a catch.
Georgia:
The projections like Zamir White this week for whatever reason at 15.3 fantasy points which would be better than anything he’s done to this point in the season. I’m not as optimistic as UGA has been trying to find their best offensive line combination all year long, ranking 70th this season in Stuff Rate and 47th in Line Yards. White did have his highest carry total of the season in Georgia’s most competitive matchup of the year in Week 1 which could be a sign of this staff’s tendencies to rely on the run against formidable opponents, but I have a tough time rostering a running back that is so touchdown dependent and not utilized whatsoever in the passing game. Under that same rationale, we probably see less of Daijun Edwards and Kenny McIntosh with a shortened rotation that included just White, James Cook and Kendall Milton. Cook has been hit or miss as a receiver, but his eight targets have come against Clemson and South Carolina this season – aligns with the theme of condensed rotations in competitive contests.
Arkansas hasn’t been as good at defending the pass as Georgia, but they’re up there, ranking 7th nationally in FPPG allowed to opposing QBs this season (15.3) and are 27th in Defensive Pass Play Success Rate. JT Daniels will certainly test those numbers as his 76.1 completion percentage ranks as best in the SEC and has been very good over the last two weeks with five touchdowns. Daniels’ 11.3 YPA in the last two games is right in line with what we saw from him during the four-game stretch in 2020. FWIW – Stetson Bennett had a great deal of success against this Barry Odom defense a year ago, throwing for 211 yards and two TDs.
I wish I had a strong take about the Georgia receivers, but I can’t find an edge. Brock Bowers is our highest projected pass-catcher, but Arkansas is allowing just 4.3 FPPG to opposing TE1s so far. Kearis Jackson projects higher than Ladd McConkey which is strange to me considering it was the latter that started last week, had the same amount of targets (4), and found the end-zone. I know the staff has been ramping up Jackson’s on-field work since the injury so maybe he takes back his starting job in the slot? Jermaine Burton and Adonai Mitchell have started outside the last two weeks, and I think that’s the duo they’ll roll with even if Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint is healthy.
Tennessee @ Missouri
Point-Spread: Mizzou -2.5
O/U Total: 65
Weather: 71 degrees / 32% rain / 6 mph winds
Tennessee:
This is the game we need to figure out who’s playing because matchups and salaries put a bunch of UT players on our radar this week. If we want a piece of the Alabama/Ole Miss game, we need salary savers somewhere and the Tennessee backfield is a good start facing arguably the worst rush defense in the country in Missouri, allowing 271 yards per game on the ground. Not one game yet this season has the Tigers defense been effective at stopping the run. That puts both Jabari Small and Tiyon Evans in play for us after running well against Florida with a combined 109 yards on 22 carries, and also included a 47-yard receiving TD from Evans. I prefer the talent of Evans, but when both have been healthy, the split between the two has been relatively even with a slight nod towards Small, so if choosing, I’d lean towards the $4,400 salary.
As for Hendon Hooker, he’s listed as questionable but did practice both Tuesday and Wednesday. Missouri has been better defending the pass, allowing just 183 yards per game through the air, but the Tigers did allow BC quarterback Dennis Grosel to rush for 35 yards on nine attempts, and Hooker is a far better athlete. As it stands now, if fully healthy, Hooker is our 18th ranked quarterback in CFF this week, projected at 25.7 points which would more than pay off his $6,200 salary. At receiver, Cedric Tillman played 65 of the 68 available snaps vs. Florida last week. JaVonta Payton saw the second most snaps and caught the 75-yard touchdown as he started opposite Tillman. Mixture of Jalin Hyatt, Velus Jones Jr. and Jimmy Calloway in the slot, with Jones seeing the most targets (6) and Hyatt leading the trio in snaps vs. FL. 6-foot-6 tight end Jacob Warren has been a steady presence in the passing game, surprising for a system that doesn’t typically feature the position, with 10 catches on 12 targets and two scores over the last three weeks.
Missouri:
We have Tyler Badie projected as the second-best RB on the slate, but this isn’t a gimme matchup against a Tennessee rush defense that is allowing just 3.28 yards per carry this season and 47th in Defensive Rush Play Success. The Vols were gashed last week by Florida but it was Emory Jones who did much of the gashing, not the FL backs. Still, Badie is always a threat as a receiver, averaging over six targets a game with three receiving TDs. More attractive in that sense with the full-point PPR format on DraftKings.
Connor Bazelak is off to a strong start, completing 69 percent of his passes and averaging nearly 300 yards a game through the air. I don’t think we can roster a QB this week, though, at $7,300 with minimal upside as a rusher. As both Pitt and Florida displayed, UT’s safeties and linebackers struggle in coverage so this could be a big day for either Badie or the Missouri slot receiver. Problem is – Barrett Bannister is questionable to play (5-44-1 on seven targets last week) and Mookie Cooper is out. I don’t know who starts inside if Bannister is unavailable. Chance Luper did have three catches on five targets in the slot last week so maybe him? 6-foot-5 senior Keke Chism is averaging over seven targets per game with 12 of his 17 catches coming in the last two weeks. Tauskie Dove starts opposite Chism and is third on the team in targets and routes run.
Texas @ TCU
Point-Spread: Tex -4
O/U Total: 65
Weather: 73 degrees / 35% rain / 7 mph winds
Texas:
A few housecleaning items to start. TCU is expected to get back their top nose tackle and best pass rusher back from injury this weekend after missing the SMU contest, so maybe we see an improved group from the one that gave up 595 yards to the Mustangs. Also, it’s raining all over the country this weekend and Forth Worth will be no different with a chance of showers throughout the game (though the heavier rain looks to be expected later in the afternoon after it ends).
I really want to side with Texas here given they have the better roster, a competent head coach (finally) and looked like a new offense with Casey Thompson at the helm. Travelling to TCU, though, has not been kind to the Longhorns, losers of their last three in Forth Worth with a couple of blowouts. Thompson was the slate-breaker last weekend with six total touchdowns in the romp of Texas Tech and the total looks good here with an implied score of 35. There is still just an inkling of doubt on my end, on the road with potential rain that we are possibly let down here by this passing offense. TCU is dead last in the country in explosive plays given up through the air, though, and are 73rd in Defensive Pass Success Rate so there will be opportunities here for Thompson with this secondary.
I wasn’t focused on the Texas game last weekend on the primary TV, but after a re-watch, it does appear FR Xavier Worthy has moved into the WR1 spot over Jordan Whittington after catching three touchdowns last week. That’s four scores in the last two games with 14 of his 20 total targets coming in that span. Whittington is still plenty involved, and we get a discount this week at just $5,500 as he did lead the Longhorns in targets (8) last week. After suffering an injury last week, Joshua Moore is a go vs. TCU according to coaches, but is the clear-cut third option in the passing game – maybe even fourth behind Bijan Robinson. As for the star running back, this appears to be a great matchup against a TCU defense that was shredded for 350 yards and two touchdowns on the ground last week, but must be considered that they were missing their two best players in the front seven who are now back. Similar to Badie, Bijan can get it done as a receiver with eight catches on eight targets and two scores. We have Robinson as the highest-projected RB of the slate.
TCU:
Max Duggan has made a career of dominating the Longhorns to this point. 340 total yards and three TDs as a freshman back in 2019 and 300 total yards with two rushing TDs in last year’s contest. No need to pair him with a receiver either, and that’s almost suggested with how last week turned out. One boost this week to the TCU passing game – Texas will be without top cornerback Josh Thompson who was injured in practice this week. He’s allowed just four catches in his direction all season. Does that mean we get a big performance out of Quentin Johnston who put up a goose egg against SMU? For those that asked on the Discord if QJ played against the Mustangs…yes, tied for the team lead with five targets but had a drop that would’ve resulted in a TCU touchdown. He’s in that middle-tier range of salaries that should see minimal ownership in large GPPs given the disappointment of last week, which makes him more enticing in my eyes. His aDOT of 21.8 exemplifies his boom/bust potential.
Truly a crapshoot outside of QJ with six different receivers last week seeing at least 16 snaps. Taye Barber and Derius Davis were tied with Johnston at five targets, with both finding the end-zone against SMU. That’s five targets in each of the last two games for Davis. Those look like the top three with Savion Williams, JD Spielman and Blair Conwright all seeing rotational work. Running back Zach Evans continues to see the bulk of the carries in the TCU backfield, good on Gary Patterson for making one smart decision this season at least. Accounted for 75 percent of the rushing volume that went to TCU backs last week. The Longhorns have fared well this season against opposing running backs, allowing just 10.6 FPPG to RB1s, but are just 103rd in Stuff Rate and 91st in Rush Play Success Rate. TCU’s offensive line ranks 17th in Line Yards so this should be a good matchup for Evans and Duggan on the ground.
Michigan @ Wisconsin
Point-Spread: Wisc -2
O/U Total: 43.5
Weather: 70 degrees / 4% rain / 9 mph winds
Michigan:
This Michigan fan is going full-team fade with the Wolverines on Saturday as I’m not sure how this offense will generate points. After averaging 350 yards per game rushing through the first three weeks, Michigan finally took on an opponent that loaded the box in Rutgers, forcing quarterback Cade McNamara to beat them. Results weren’t pretty as the Wolverines rushed for just 112 yards total and nearly blew a 17-point lead late in the fourth quarter. McNamara hasn’t proven yet this season he can be a proficient passer when asked to throw more than 15 attempts in a game, which he will have to on Saturday. Blake Corum is the best skill position player on the Michigan offense, but way too expensive at $7,600 facing the No. 1 rush defense in the country. Expect Michigan to find more creative ways to get him the football this week after the coaching staff was criticized for their game plan against Rutgers, but this isn’t the spot. Hassan Haskins rushed for two TDs last week, but had a season-low 3.4 yards per carry average and is never used in the passing game. Pass-catching priorities remain the same here with Cornelius Johnson > Daylen Baldwin > Mike Sainristil > Erick All. Anyone else is a crapshoot.
Wisconsin:
Maybe this is the Michigan bias in me, but our projections like Chez Mellusi a lot more than I do this week as he’s projected to top 100 rushing yards and over a touchdown. The Wolverines have allowed over four yards a carry in each of the last two games, but this Wisconsin ground game has struggled mightily against both Penn State and Notre Dame, averaging less than 3.1 yards a carry vs. both teams, and Michigan’s defense is at that level, if not better. Don’t really think Graham Mertz is even under consideration here at $5,200. Over the last eight games, Mertz has thrown just three touchdowns to 12 interceptions and has not looked comfortable in the pocket against high-level opponents like Notre Dame. Turnovers aren’t the only problem, either, as Mertz missed at least two throws against the Irish that would have gone for touchdowns had he connected on them. He’ll have another challenge this week against a Michigan secondary that is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete just 55 percent of their throws and for 172 yards per game through the air.
While we strongly dislike Mertz, using the site’s projections, some of the WRs are popping up as possible options this week given some of Wisconsin’s struggles on the ground. Danny Davis hasn’t found the end-zone yet but is averaging five catches and over seven targets in three games played. Kendric Pryor had the huge performance against Notre Dame with 6-69-1 on 14 targets. After a strong fall camp, some thought the Chimere Dike would be a breakout player this season. He’s been quiet with four catches for 39 yards and one rushing attempt for 10 yards. His snap counts decreased by game. He played 51 against Penn State, 40 against Eastern Michigan and just 21 against Notre Dame. Tight end Jake Ferguson has been practically non-existent since the opener with six targets in the last two games. Opposing TEs are averaging just 3.5 FPPG against the Wolverines this season.
Louisville @ Wake Forest
Point-Spread: WF -7
O/U Total: 62
Weather: 71 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Louisville:
It’s clear the UL offense is running through Malik Cunningham this season as he’s now the co-leader in the country with eight rushing touchdowns and had a hand in all four scores last week against Florida State. Cunningham has topped double-digit carries in all four games and has scored 29 or more fantasy points each week. We have Cunningham sitting third this week among QBs in this slate based on projections, so if you are fading the Bama/Ole Miss contest (not advisable), Cunningham would be your guy. WF has not been as good this year defending the pass, ranking 111th in Pass Play Success Rate, though they do a good job at limiting the big play so Cunningham will likely have to march this offense down the field methodically to accumulate fantasy points. If comparing dual-threats that have faced the Deacons this season, Brennan Armstrong did put up 407 passing yards but needed 59 attempts to do it, and was limited to just 33 yards on 17 carries. I’ll be underweight personally here on Cunningham.
One good performance against UCF doesn’t erase how poor Jalen Mitchell and this Louisville rushing attack has been for much of the year. Just 29 yards on 14 attempts against a bad Florida State defense last week, and the five hog maulers up front rank just 58th in Line Yards created. Overall, Louisville is 101st nationally in Rush Play Success rate, with most of that coming from Cunningham. Fade here.
Wide receiver is the position to go cheap on this week in DFS, and Louisville has a few of them that are intriguing from a salary-saving standpoint. It was a disappointing start for projected WR1 Jordan Watkins, but he’s come along with nine receptions on 13 targets with a TD over the last two weeks. 6-foot-3 Justin Marshall hasn’t amounted to much thus far in his career but played the most snaps of any WR last week against FSU, finishing with four catches on six targets. Slot receiver Braden Smith is out for the season due to injury, so look for Josh Johnson to see the majority of the snaps inside – four catches on five targets last week. Tyler Harrell had a 59-yard touchdown last week and has posted an aDOT of 20 yards or more in two of the four games played. He splits reps with Watkins on the right side of the field. WF is allowing 10.9 FPPG to opposing tight ends this season so that puts Marshon Ford in play for us with his team-leading 19 receptions on 25 targets.
Wake Forest:
This Wake Forest offense has had a great deal of success against Louisville, scoring 30 points or more in three of the last four meetings, but how much exposure do we want as the Deacs spread the ball out quite a bit to both their RBs and WRs. Does that mean Sam Hartman is the player of most interest to us? The junior QB has thrown a touchdown in eight straight games, but his 18 TDs have gone to seven different receivers. This Louisville defense is allowing 32 FPPG to opposing QB1s in 2021 with both Dillon Gabriel and Matt Corral topping 36 fantasy points in their matchups with the Cardinals. Advanced metrics do suggest this secondary is better than the overall numbers, ranking just 35th in Defensive Pass Play Success Rate, but this defense is often put in poor field position and are 101st in Points Per Opportunity allowed. Projections have Hartman at nearly 300 yards of total offense and two touchdowns this week – enough to justify his $7,400 salary?
Are we going to the Jaquarii Roberson well one more time after being letdown the last two weeks? Targets are definitely down, on pace for just 72 by year’s end, but I don’t think the notion is correct that he’s in the doghouse…or that A.T. Perry has surpassed him as the team’s WR1 – if that distinction even matters at this point. Roberson is still on the field for 2/3s of the offensive snaps and his aDOT is about two yards more than a year ago which might be contributing to his lack of receptions. For the upside he possesses, $5,200 is a bargain and I’ll be tempted to roster him again. As for Perry, he found the end-zone against UVA for the third time in four games and is filling in admirably for Donovan Greene as the team’s primary deep threat with an aDOT of 15.6. WR3 Taylor Morin is actually on the field more than both Roberson/Perry, and 11 of his 14 targets have come in the last two games. Donald Stewart and Ke’Shawn Williams rotate in and out of the game sporadically, and had a combined six targets last week.
As expected with a Dave Clawson offense, it’s a full-blown RBBC in the Wake backfield with Christian Beal-Smith, Justice Ellison and Christian Turner all seeing regular work. All three had double-digit rushing attempts vs. UVA. Turner, at $3,400, was a player that popped in some of our DFS lineups this week for salary-saving opportunities with 27 rushing attempts in the last two weeks. Not a ton of upside here given the volume split, despite facing the 93rd ranked run defense in the country.
USC @ Colorado
Point-Spread: USC -7.5
O/U Total: 51
Weather: 60 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
USC:
If Colorado has done one thing well this season, it’s been limiting the team’s opposing quarterback to find success through the air, allowing just 221 yards per game through the air and giving up, on average, 16.6 FPPG. Jayden Daniels scored 35 fantasy points last week, but majority of that came on the ground with 70 yards and two TDs. We don’t have to worry about Kedon Slovis beating the Buffs with his legs. Slovis has yet to top 20 fantasy points in a game this season, but the volume is there at 42 attempts per contest which makes his $7,200 salary intriguing from that standpoint. The Buffs’ secondary certainly isn’t surmountable by any stretch, ranking 54th in Pass Play Success Rate and forced just a single interception in four games. At cost, I think you can dabble Slovis in some lineups but not someone I’m looking to have heavy exposure of.
Drake London is our highest-projected receiver on the slate and someone you can play naked without Slovis. Double-digit targets in three of the four games played this year, and would’ve been all four had he not suffered the injury vs. Stanford. Only concern here is if USC gets an early lead against the anemic Colorado offense and bleeds clock. Tahj Washington is averaging seven targets a game through the first month, but seems to be the third option now in the passing offense with slot receiver Gary Bryant Jr. fully healthy. The redshirt freshman has found the end-zone in back-to-back games. With USC’s season in the dumps, don’t be surprised to see some of the younger players enter the mix like we saw last week with talented tight end Michael Trigg who saw a season-high in snaps and targets (4).
The running back rotation still feels like a mystery. One week its Keaontay Ingram, and then just when you think he’s locked it down, Vavae Malepeai comes in and vultures TDs. Last week’s 79 yards and two TDs could be a sign of things to come, though, with the interim coaching staff as the fanbase has grown tired of Graham Harrell and the Air Raid offense. Ingram’s usage in the passing game (4 receptions) keeps him in the pool, but probably not worth playing at $6,700. Colorado is 77th in rush play success rate, but the USC offensive line gives their RBs zero push.
Colorado:
When you’re in the company of Louisiana-Monroe, Navy and Connecticut in terms of total offense, that ain’t a good thing. I don’t want to say full-team fade here, but its close. Completely out on Brendon Lewis who is averaging just 18 passing attempts per game, 4.3 yards per attempt and a single touchdown. Is averaging around nine rushing attempts per contest, but minimal production to show for it. The running backs might have some value, facing a USC run defense that just allowed seven yards a carry to Oregon State last week. It’s a timeshare between Jarek Broussard and Alex Fontenot, with the latter looking far more effective last week with 65 yards and a touchdown on 14 attempts. Colorado is just 72nd in Line Yards and the Trojans are 62nd in Defensive Rush Play Success Rate so it really doesn’t favor the Buffs much at all there. As much as we are ignoring Brendon Lewis this week, that pales in comparison to the Colorado receivers. Zero interest. Dimitri Stanley leads the team with 11 targets, four of which coming last week.
Cincinnati @ Notre Dame
Point-Spread: Cin -2
O/U Total: 50.5
Weather: 75 degrees / 12% rain / 10 mph winds
Cincinnati:
Line has now moved to -2 in favor of Cincinnati at some spots…does that make Desmond Ridder more attractive to us? Interesting matchup facing former Cincy defensive coordinator Marcus Freeman, who conceivably would know the tendencies of his former quarterback and OC Mike Denbrock, but the ND defense is a shell of it’s former self. One interesting stat on Ridder I read from 247:
“In games against “Power 5” teams or ranked opponents where Ridder has played more than two quarters, he has an 8-4 record. There is one similarity in all 8 of the wins, Des has tried to get things going on the ground. He has averaged over 12 rushes, 67 yards and has scored 8 rushing touchdowns in the 8 wins. This is where he could calm himself down and get things going.”
Will Freeman shadow Ridder with star safety Kyle Hamilton in hopes to contain him on the ground? Cincy hasn’t needed Ridder to run much this season in mostly blowouts, but did average nearly 13 carries a game during his scorching fantasy stretch at the end of last year. ND is allowing just 15 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs this year, but with CFP and Heisman hopes on the line on Saturday, this staff is going to put the ball in the hands of their best player. At $7,500, he’s in play for GPPs as a low-ownership option.
I’ve set a bunch of lineups already this week, none of which have included Jerome Ford as I’d much rather take a shot on Tre Henderson at $200 cheaper. Ford’s been fine, averaging six yards a carry with a team-high six touchdowns, and is dominating the touches in the Cincy backfield with no other RB having more than eight attempts this year. The Bearcats offensive line is the group that worries me as they are still shuffling to find the best combination. 25th in Line Yards but 92nd in Stuff Rate. Just three targets for Ford in the passing game. Similar to Ridder, a decent GPP play as I suspect lower ownership.
Along the same lines of a CJ Verdell and Marvin Mims, I have NEVER been able to correctly predict the Alec Pierce blowup games. Part of that is due to his questionable health status nearly every week, but senior receiver is the ultimate boom/bust type. His big game came in Week 3 vs. Indiana with 5-80-1 on eight targets. WR2 Michael Young is also cheap at $3,500 and saw a season-high seven targets against the Hoosiers. Ridder will need to put the ball in the air on Saturday and these guys are cheap punt plays. Tyler Scott, Tre Tucker and Jadon Thompson are all rotational players. Cincinnati loves their tight ends in Josh Whyle and Leonard Taylor, but the two are essentially in a timeshare and it’s a split target share between them. Notre Dame has done a really good job this season of holding both Payne Durham and Jake Ferguson in check, but that was with Kyle Hamilton in coverage. Maybe some different looks for Taylor/Whyle if Hamilton is shadowing Ridder.
Notre Dame:
Kyren Williams is too cheap at $5,000 in a full-point PPR setting like DraftKings. No, Notre Dame can’t run the football effectively with Williams averaging just 3.8 YPC and an offensive line that is arguably one of the worst in the country, ranking 117th or lower in the major advanced metrics. After posting 29 runs of 10 yards or more in 2020, Williams has just three through four games. His usage in the passing game keeps him in the player pool with 11 receptions on 12 targets, though he didn’t see a single target last week. Also promising is the split in the backfield where Williams has dominated the touches with 30 carries over the last two games compared to just 13 for backup Chris Tyree. Might get into trouble here with having too much Kyren exposure, but at that price, I think he’s worth the play while I load up on the quarterbacks.
Question marks about health with the ND quarterback position make this a clear fade spot against one of the best secondaries in the country. Still unknown to this point whether Jack Coan is healthy or not, and it sounds as though either Drew Pyne or Tyler Buchner (depending on health) will have a role. No thanks. One week after dismissing Kevin Austin Jr. entirely, he bounced back with a career day against the Badgers with 6-76-2 on nine targets. Cincy has the best pair of cornerbacks in the country and I don’t trust Austin on a week-to-week basis so I’ll ignore him. Michael Mayer at $5,500 is intriguing. We know he’s going to be peppered with targets as he was last week with a team-high 10 against Wisconsin, and the Bearcats did have some struggles containing Indiana’s Peyton Hendershot a few weeks ago who had 6-60-1. Avery Davis and Braden Lenzy have combined for 25 targets the last two weeks, and if we like the middle of the field vs. Cincinnati, Davis would be the preferred choice of the two in the slot.
Ole Miss @ Alabama
Point-Spread: Ala -14.5
O/U Total: 79.5
Weather: 83 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Ole Miss:
This shouldn’t be earth-shattering news when I say that I am no DFS professional so strategy and game theory in matchups like this are out of my expertise, but I do know our projections love the Ole Miss offense this week with Matt Corral being the highest-ranked QB in all of CFF and this is a game script that should favor the Rebels’ passing game as a 14.5-point dog. Vegas does as well with an implied total of 32.5. While Corral can do plenty with his legs, as he showed against Tulane with four rushing touchdowns, I don’t think we play him naked this week so we must stack. The antithesis of Max Duggan this week – either stack Corral or don’t play at all.
Good news there is we have plenty of clarity at wide receiver with Dontario Drummond, Jonathan Mingo and Braylon Sanders being the clear-cut Top 3 with no other wideouts really in the mix – 65 percent of the target share. Sanders is going to be popular at $4,800, though he is the clear third option of the ground. Did have a season-high 4-74-1 on five targets against Tulane. Mingo is also going to be a popular GPP play at just $6,100 considering back-to-back 30-point performances and his target distribution is near even with that of Drummond’s over the last two games. I was under the belief that the slot receiver didn’t matter much in Jeff Lebby’s system looking back at his history, but Drummond is disproving that notion as the clear WR1 with at least nine targets in all three games. His salary will steer folks away, which makes him a more attractive play for larger GPPs. UPDATE: After write up submission, reports have surfaced that Ole Miss WR Jonathan Mingo has a bone fracture in his foot and his availability for the game remains unknown (Fri. 4:30pm ET).
I don’t love Jerrion Ealy this week, taking on the Alabama front seven that is 26th in Defensive Rush Play Success Rate, but I would be remissed if I didn’t mention that he did rush for 103 yards and two TDs last season against the Tide. Similar to Drummond, I think Ealy is a solid GPP play with low ownership given that he only receives around 50 percent of the rushing volume with both Henry Parrish and Snoop Conner eating into the workload. Conner does have three rushing TDs in three games.
Alabama:
Sounds as though Brian Robinson Jr. will be a go this week after not playing against Southern Miss with a rib injury. How healthy is he truly? Jase McClellan started in Robinson’s place against Southern Miss, recording 97 yards on 12 carries while pulling in a 9-yard touchdown reception. Fellow sophomore back Roydell Williams led Alabama on the ground, rushing for 110 yards and a score on 11 carries. Don’t discount McClellan’s ability as a pass-catcher here either with a receiving touchdown in each of the last three games. The Ole Miss run defense has been vastly improved through the early going, allowing 100 yards less than they did a year ago. The Bama offensive line hasn’t been as good to date, ranking 65th in line yards, but beat writers on 247 are projecting the Tide have another 200-yard rushing game as a team on the ground this weekend.
Is Bryce Young worth his $10,000 price tag this weekend? Game script potentially doesn’t favor him as two-TD favorites, and if Corral reverts back to his old ways of turning the ball over, maybe this game gets out of hand? Conjecture. Young has yet to use his legs much this season with negative yardage on the ground so we likely need 300+ yards and four TDs to match that salary. Rebels are allowing just 208 yards per game through the air so far, and 58th in Pass Play Success Rate. Jameson Williams did it all last week with an 81-yard receiving touchdown and two return scores. His season-long target numbers are right on par with John Metchie, and is the higher-upside play of the two with an aDOT of 16.5 compared to just 5.9 with Metchie. We are due for a breakout from Metchie at some point, though, (we said that all last year) and he does have twice as many receptions as Williams does this season so volume isn’t the issue. Alabama had two 100-yard receivers the last time these two team’s met and the target disparity between Metchie/Williams and everyone else could mean a repeat performance. At $3,600, Jahleel Billingsley will be the highest-owned player on the slate of options under $4k. Based on the play-by-play data, he is seemingly out of the doghouse after most of his work came on the first half last week with 6-105-1 on six targets. Cameron Latu recorded two receiving TDs for the second time this year against Southern Miss. Slade Bolden is…a JAG…but a decent punt option at $3,900 in this sort of game environment.
Oregon @ Stanford
Point-Spread: Oreg -8
O/U Total: 57.5
Weather: 79 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
Oregon:
CJ Verdell, the bane of my existence. As I said previously, I’ve NEVER predicted him correctly, and this is the matchup against Stanford to play him as the Cardinal are dead last in the Pac-12 against the run, allowing over 200 yards a game on the ground. Vanderbilt, yes Vanderbilt, ran for 247 against this defense. The trouble is usage, and we never know what in the hell Mario Cristobal is planning with Verdell and backup Travis Dye. Verdell barely saw the field in the first three quarters last week before sealing the win against Arizona. Projections like him this week at 21.3 fantasy points and I think he’ll go under-owned with most of the focus on Bama/Ole Miss. Dye did what he always does last week, minimal production for a guy that splits snaps almost evenly with Verdell, though he did have 92 rushing yards on five attempts.
As is the case every week, I have zero interest in the Oregon receivers. There looked to be a condensed rotation last week with Johnny Johnson, Mycah Pittman, Jaylon Redd and Kris Hutson dominating the snap counts. Your funeral if you decide to play one. Anthony Brown has been the game-manager we expected, but has played well, completing over 60 percent of his throws with six touchdowns and zero interceptions. He’s also topped double-digit carries in the three “competitive” matchups Oregon has had this year, and accounted for two or more touchdowns in each of those weeks. Low upside, high floor play.
Stanford:
I compare Tanner McKee to that of someone like a Malik Cunningham in that his numbers are benefitting because of how little support he receives from the ground game. In fairness, the former 4-star recruit has been a pleasant surprise to date, completing 67 percent of his throws with eight touchdowns and zero interceptions. Even showed a glimpse of athleticism last week with 42 yards on eight carries, though 30 came on just one run. Projections actually like him quite a bit this week at 21.4 fantasy points as he’s rushed for two TDs already. And to beat Oregon, you need to do it through the air as the Ducks rank 110th in Pass Success Rate. He’s in the pool as a second QB option.
Avoid this running game this week against an Oregon front seven that is holding up well in the trenches despite a less-than-100 percent Kayvon Thibodeaux, allowing just 3.58 yards per carry. Mostly due to Stanford’s offensive line that is atrocious – 97th in Stuff Rate, 103rd in Line Yards and 110th in Second Level Yards. Running backs are to blame for some of that as well, and Stanford could be without Austin Jones as he’s questionable for this weekend. Nathaniel Peat would start in place of Jones, but was ineffective last week vs. UCLA with 26 yards on 13 carries. Salary makes him a better option on FanDuel than DraftKings where he is not in our player pool of options.
Assuming no Michael Wilson again this week, Brycen Tremayne and Elijah Higgins have established themselves as the top two pass-catchers, accounting for 43 percent of the target share. Little separation between the two so don’t mind rostering either player, though Tremayne does have a receiving touchdown in all four games this season. John Humphreys starts in place of Wilson and did have a season-high six targets vs. UCLA. TE1 Ben Yurosek is probable this week according to the injury report and had 13 targets in three games.
Texas Tech @ West Virginia
Point-Spread: WV -7
O/U Total: 55.5
Weather: 75 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Texas Tech:
The three touchdowns from Henry Columbi last week were a mirage that won’t be replicated, and I choose to ignore our projections that have him slightly ahead of Doege here, likely because of possible game-script as a touchdown underdog. Opposing QBs have had some success against this WVU defense, completing 66 percent of their passes, throwing just one interception, and averaging 25.5 FPPG. Overall, the Mountaineers are 49th in Defensive Pass Play Success Rate. Columbi comes in only slightly ahead of Doege in the projections and if choosing between the two, I’d rather save the $800 and play the WVU quarterback.
Minimal interest in the Texas Tech running backs against one of the best rush defenses in the nation, allowing just 2.5 yards per carry on the ground. Tahj Brooks is doubtful again with a lower-leg injury so this will fall again on the shoulders of SaRodorick Thompson and Xavier White. I do like the carry distribution last week with Thompson getting 16 attempts to just seven for White, which makes him intriguing option at $4,600. Just one target vs. the Longhorns last week, but he’s a proven pass-catcher with 61 receptions in his career. The Tech offensive line has been just OK, ranking 62nd in Line Yards and 58th in Stuff Rate so no advantage there.
I prefer Jonathan Mingo at $6,100 to Erik Ezukanma’s pricing but this is a player averaging nearly nine targets a game and can bust out at a moment’s notice. Our projections show him as the 74th ranked wide receiver this week, but I think he is the perfect high floor/high ceiling type that won’t hurt your lineup one bit. Kaylon Geiger has firmly established himself as the WR2 now for Tech with consecutive 100-yard performances. Myles Price splits time in the slot with Dalton Rigdon, but had his best outing of the year last week with 4-69-1 on five targets. While I dislike Columbi, if you can beat the West Virginia defense, its most likely coming through the air which provides value to these receivers in a positive game script environment.
West Virginia:
A little birdie (Joe) told me this week he likes Jarret Doege this week as a lower-priced option at QB at $6,200. Projections don’t necessarily reflect that at 18.6 fantasy points, predicting 266 passing yards and two touchdowns. But this is a favorable matchup for him against a Texas Tech pass defense that just gave up 53 fantasy points to Casey Thompson a week ago, and is allowing 32.5 FPPG on the year to opposing QBs. Red Raiders now ranked 100th nationally in yards allowed per game through the air, but are just 44th in Pass Play Success Rate. I don’t mind him as a naked punt play as a second QB here. No need to stack here with any receivers as no player accounts for more than 21 percent of the target share. On the positive side, where we were seeing as many as 6-7 different options at receiver a year ago, WVU seems to have established a top three with Sam James, Winston Wright and Bryce Ford-Wheaton who accounted for 25 of the 31 targets last week vs. Oklahoma. Not a ton of separation here as far as who to prioritize, so you could potentially sprinkle any of the three in your lineups along with Doege, but not a necessity. James leads the team with three receiving TDs.
Projections LOVE Leddie Brown this week against a Tech defense that is 84th in Rush Play Success Rate and coming off a performance where they allowed 336 yards and four touchdowns to Texas. Just 3.42 yards per carry allowed on the year, but that was against Houston, SF Austin and Florida International. One stat I found particularly intriguing given Leddie Brown’s propensity to start a game on fire – Texas Tech is Minus-28 in scoring margin in the first quarter this season. All five of Leddie’s touchdowns have come in the first half of games this year. Word of caution, though, as 31 percent of his rushing yardage this season has been on just two plays. The other 64 carries? Just 221 yards.
Oklahoma @ Kansas State
Point-Spread: Okla -11.5
O/U Total: 52.5
Weather: 71 degrees / 20% rain / 9 mph winds
Oklahoma:
Any chance of a “get right” performance here from Spencer Rattler and the Sooners? Far easier to beat the Wildcats through the air this season as they’re 89th in Pass Play Success Rate, and allowing opposing QBs to complete 67 percent of their throws. If Spencer Sanders can do it, I think Rattler has a shot, but are you spending $8,800 to find out? Projections have Rattler all the way down at QB48 this week so I’m spending elsewhere, but others are likely to do the same which makes him a decent contrarian play with slate-breaking upside (Yes, I just said that despite how this year has turned out).
Marvin Mims is back to his 2020 usage rate, if he wasn’t there already, as it was Drake Stoops who out-targeted him last week. The Wildcats defense has already allowed 24 passes plays of 15 yards or more and six over 25 yards so they are susceptible to the big play where Mims’ 15.2 aDOT can challenge a defense over the top. One of these games, he will break out (I keep saying to myself as I bang my head against the wall) and $4,800 might be worth the price of admission to find out if its against the K-State secondary. Mike Woods was the primary last week with a season-high 8-86-0 on nine targets against West Virginia – a sign he’s getting more comfortable within the Oklahoma offensive system? The luster has worn off somewhat with star FR Mario Williams who has seen his snap counts decrease with every passing week. At least four targets in every game, but he needs to break off a tackle or two to reach value with an aDOT of just 7.5. For better or worse, Jadon Haselwood continues to see the most snaps of any Oklahoma receiver and has at least five targets in every game this season.
Do we have a new leader in the clubhouse at running back with Eric Gray out-carrying Kennedy Brooks 12-5? Not the defense I want to find out against with Kansas State ranking 15th in Stuff Rate, 9th in Second Level Yards allowed and 9th overall against the run, allowing just 2.35 yards a carry. I’m sure one of the two will fall into the end-zone twice unexpectedly to reach value because that’s how the Oklahoma backfield works. Great analysis, I know.
Kansas State:
Another forgotten component of this CFF slate that is likely to go undervalued in Deuce Vaughn who continues to put up numbers even with a backup QB under center, topping 20.5 fantasy points in every game this season. Interesting matchup of strength on strength here against the Oklahoma defense that is 14th in run defense so far, but faces a Kansas State offensive line that is 19th in Line Yards and 11th in Rush Play Success Rate. Oklahoma State provided the script last week to corral Vaughn on the ground, limiting him to just 22 rushing yards, and still caught five passes for 73 yards and a score.
Skylar Thompson “might” play vs. Oklahoma this week? Doesn’t feel likely but it hasn’t been ruled out just yet, though he is considered doubtful for the contest. Will Howard likely starts for the third straight game, and while he looked good early, he was also forced to leave the contest with an injury, leading to Jaren Lewis playing in the second half. We’ve seen K-State quarterbacks have success in the past against these Sooners as Thompson showed last year with four touchdowns in the upset win in Norman, but the cloudiness here with the injuries mean this is a fade for me. No interest in the K-State receivers though someone will have to catch the football here. Malik Knowles is the only wideout of minimal interest with a season-high seven targets last week against Oklahoma State. aDOT of 17.5 on the season and does have a carry in every week.
Ohio State @ Rutgers
Point-Spread: OSU -15
O/U Total: 58
Weather: 74 degrees / 0% rain / 10 mph winds
Ohio State:
While it sounds like C.J. Stroud is a go this week after resting his shoulder, there are a few options here at lower price-points to make it worth risk it this week. We have Hendon Hooker and Desmond Ridder at higher projections with a lower cost to fade Stroud here. Ohio State presents a far greater challenge than anything Rutgers has seen to this point, but the Knights have allowed just 9.1 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season. Should he struggle, I wouldn’t be stunned if we saw Kyle McCord get a brief look either to get the offense in motion.
Rostering Tre Henderson makes me nervous this week given that we just witness Rutgers completely shut down the Michigan ground attack last weekend. That’s also a team that can’t complete a forward pass and the Knights won’t be able to load the box as they did against the Wolverines. The Ohio State offensive line has been spectacular this season, ranking 6th in Line Yards and 5th in Rushing Success Rate which puts Henderson in play this week despite a solid Rutgers rush defense. If Rutgers keeps this close, I’m not worried about Miyan Williams or Master Teague vulturing carries and expect the rotation to look similar to the Tulsa game a few weeks back. Ohio State receivers are GPP options only given their price-points and we no longer have significant value with either Garrett Wilson or Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Must pick one side of the coin here with your roster construction, siding with either Henderson or the Ohio State receivers, and I’ll lean the star FR running back now that JSN has fully entered the equation as a legitimate third option which muddies the waters a bit. Chris Olave found the end-zone last week but has just seven targets in the last two weeks after his blazing start to the season.
Rutgers:
Full team fade here for me with one of the lowest implied totals on the slate. Yes, Noah Vedral is cheap, but hasn’t produced a noteworthy fantasy performance outside of Delaware in Week 3. If you want a glimmer of hope Vedral can reach value, Ohio State is ranked 102nd in yards allowed through the air and 90th in Pass Play Success Rate. I’m not touching it. Bo Melton, on the other hand, I don’t mind throwing in at his pricing as the Rutgers target leader (30 percent) with his 4-26-0 performance last week against Michigan as his lowest output of the season. Has had at least six targets in every game this season. Aron Cruickshank is the only other pass-catcher of note for Rutgers with 20 percent of the target share, and at least three receptions in each week. Similar to Vedral, I’m not touching Isaih Pacheco as he presents very little upside despite dominating the rushing volume in the Rutgers backfield at nearly 40 percent. Too many mouths to feed inside the red-zone with Vedral, Johnny Langan and backup Kyle Monangai all getting looks. Buckeyes are 28th in Rush Play Success Rate.