Kansas @ Iowa State
Point-Spread: ISU -34.5
O/U Total: 57
Weather: 73 degrees / 3% rain / 8 mph winds
Kansas:
Even in a losing effort, last weekend’s offensive performance from the Jayhawks is something to build on, as their 530 yards was the highest mark since Week 9 of 2019. North Texas transfer Jason Bean has been a bright spot at quarterback, averaging 250 yards of total offense per game (44th in the country) and is a constant threat to run with his track-level speed – his 270 rushing yards is seventh most among FBS quarterbacks. Bean was complemented in the backfield last week by true freshman Devin Neal who posted a career-high 107 yards and a touchdown. Is that sustainable or a one-off performance against a lowly run defense? Kansas ranks 99th in Line Yards and 84th in Stuff Rate which leans towards the former in that debate. Last week against Baylor was the first time Iowa State allowed a team to average over two yards a carry so I’m out on Neal this week. Bean is tough because he’s averaging 14 carries a game which could pay off his $5,000 salary easily regardless of how well he passes the ball.
Target tree appears settled with Trevor Wilson, Lawrence Arnold and Kwamie Lassiter who combined for 17 receptions on 26 of the 30 available targets last week vs. Duke. Each have really taken their turns this year as the perceived WR1, though it was Wilson who was the top option against the Blue Devils with 12 targets. FWIW, we have Lassiter as the highest-projected of the three this week, but are all separated by a mere two fantasy points. Pick your poison.
Iowa State:
If there is a remedy to an ailing offense, the Kansas defense is the perfect cure. Quarterback Brock Purdy has looked better over the last two weeks since his benching in Week 2, completing over 70 percent of his passes with four touchdowns, and will take on a Jayhawks’ secondary that ranks 130th in Defensive Pass Play Success Rate. Projections don’t love Purdy this week at just 21 fantasy points, making his $8,500 salary seem absurd for considering, but this is really a zero-risk proposition given the defense he is facing.
There should be no shortage of running lanes either for star rusher Breece Hall, taking on the 126th rank run defense that has already allowed 16 touchdowns on the ground. Our highest-projected running back of the entire week. Don’t need my analysis here to know it’s a good play. Charlie Kolar and Xavier Hutchinson continue to be the mainstays in the passing game, accounting for 48 percent of the team target share. Only other pass-catcher to make even a dent in that last week was tight end Chase Allen with 6-99-0 on six targets. Joe Scates and Tarique Milton are the only other options to even consider in the Iowa State passing game and they are the longest of longshots.
Mississippi State @ Texas A&M
Point-Spread: A&M -7
O/U Total: 46
Weather: 78 degrees / 6% rain / 5 mph winds
Mississippi State:
Feel like we’ve focused so much on the Mississippi State offense already in our DFS writeups that you could re-read what I wrote last week on the Bulldogs and it would apply here. Will Rogers will get his yards and likely hit the 300-yard bonus, but it will probably take 60 attempts to get there as Texas A&M ranks 4th overall in yards allowed this season, are the No. 1 ranked team in Defensive Pass Play Success Rate and No. 2 in Pass Play PPA. Team’s simply aren’t scoring points against the Aggies. WR pecking order remains the same at the top with Makai Polk and Malik Heath as the top two options outside, combining for 13 receptions on 19 targets last week vs. LSU. Benefitted some from Derek Stingley Jr. being out, but Polk sitting atop the stat sheet has been a constant all season long. You’re looking at a rotation in the slot with Austin Williams, Jamire Calvin and Jaden Walley, with the latter sitting third amongst that group in terms of snaps. Not sure why the fall from grace after finishing the 2020 season on such a high note. Outside of Polk and Heath, not a lot of upside here, even in a full-point PPR setting. Feeling like a broken record but same story at running back as well with split reps between Jo’quavious Marks and Dillon Johnson, with the latter outscoring Marks in both of the last two games with 16 receptions on 19 targets. Texas A&M ranks 92nd in the country against the run, but are 21st in Rush Success Rate. We are seeing 60 pass attempts from Rogers on Saturday night.
Texas A&M:
There is no secret as to what MSU will attempt to do on Saturday – shut down the run and force Zach Calzada to beat them with his arm. Of the starting QBs in the SEC, Calzada is tied with Ken Seals with the lowest completion percentage at 52.8 and has yet to score more than 21 fantasy points in either of the three games played – his three passing touchdowns came against New Mexico (congrats). For as much as we laud the MSU rush defense, the Bulldogs are quite good at defending the pass as well, where opposing QBs complete just 59 percent of their throws and are 36th in Pass Play Success Rate. No updates from Jimbo Fisher that I’ve seen regarding the health status of receivers Caleb Chapman, Chase Lane and Zeke Jones who missed last week vs. Arkansas, calling them day-to-day. Jalen Preston saw his first extended action of the season, finishing with 3-33-0 on five targets. Ainias Smith and Demond Demas caught two passes on five targets each. Those were the only receivers that saw much playing time last week as Calzada utilized his running backs frequently in the passing game with both Isaiah Spiller and Devon Achane accounting for six targets each.
As for the running backs, I think the offensive line might be in better shape this week with better health from what I read, but its been a struggle, ranking 109th in Stuff Rate and 51st in Line Yards. This is not the defense to try and fix your issues as Mississippi State is No. 2 in the SEC in rush defense, allowing just 2.79 yards per carry and 6th in Rush Play Success Rate. I don’t see much upside with either Spiller or Achane this week. FWIW – Spiller had a great deal of success against this D last year with 114 yards and two TDs, but that was behind an experienced offensive line. He doesn’t have that this year.
Baylor @ Oklahoma State
Point-Spread: OK State -3.5
O/U Total: 47.5
Weather: 78 degrees / 5% rain / 6 mph winds
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