Notre Dame vs. Duke
Point-Spread: ND -5.5
O/U Total: 52.5
Implied Score: ND 29 – Duke 23.5
Weather: 72 degrees / 4% rain / 7 mph winds
Notre Dame:
Top Play(s) – RB Audric Estime ($7,900) The usage was frustrating last week with backups Jeremiyah Love and Gi’Bran Payne combining for 14 carries and the latter finding the end-zone. Estime ran well, though, averaging 5.0 yards per carry against a good Ohio State defensive front. The Irish should hold the advantage in the trenches where Duke is allowing 20.9 FPPG to opposing backfields and rank 115th in rush D success rate.
Fade – RB Jadarian Price ($4,800) Price has seemingly been relegated to fourth-string duties now behind Estime, Payne, and Love with just three carries in each of the last two weeks. Still averaging a healthy six yards per attempt but expect ND to lean on their star running back in a crucial matchup on Saturday evening.
Bargain Bin – WR Rico Flores Jr. ($3,700) Flores Jr. should get the starting nod opposite Tobias Merriweather ($4,400) should Jayden Thomas miss the game. Ran the third most routes among Irish receivers last week, catching a touchdown on four targets. He was far more effective than Merriweather who had just one lone target.
Pivot Play – TE Mitchell Evans ($4,800) Best performance of the season last week for Evans, converting on all seven of his targets for 75 yards, including a sick one-handed catch against the Buckeyes. Have to imagine Hartman looking towards his trusted tight end more often on Saturday with multiple receivers out with injury. No tight end has scored more than five fantasy points in a game vs. Duke this season, fwiw.
Best of the Rest – WR Sam Hartman (8,900) Hartman had a lot of success against Duke during his time at Wake Forest, completing 64% of his throws for 749 yards and six touchdowns with just one interception. This is a better secondary than he faced in either contest, ranking 11th in pass D success rate and giving up 11.4 FPPG to opposing QB1s. Add in ND will likely be down two wide receivers.
Injury Notes – WR Jayden Thomas ($5,600) Notre Dame spreads the ball around enough for us to remove Thomas from consideration this week. Marcus Freeman calls Thomas “questionable to doubtful.” WR Deion Colzie ($4,000) will not play either.
Duke:
Top Play(s) – QB Riley Leonard ($6,900) Ah, we’ve hit that time of year where the front page of the Duke sports section is a picture of Jon Scheyer, the men’s basketball coach, despite having an undefeated football team heading into its biggest matchup of the season. As we saw last Saturday night, this is one of the better secondaries in the country for the Irish, ranking just below Duke at No. 12 in pass D success rate. Luckily for Leonard, he doesn’t need just his arm to rack up fantasy production.
Fade – RB Jordan Waters ($5,900) Waters has been awesome this season, finding the end-zone in every contest, and two or more rushing TDs in each of the last two games. The problem is Jaylen Coleman is back healthy, making this a three-headed backfield that also shares carries with Leonard. Opposing backfields are only averaging a combined 19.3 FPPG against the Irish this season. That average split four ways potentially spells trouble.
Bargain Bin – WR Sahmir Hagans ($3,400) A distant third among the Duke receivers, but the good news is there is no fourth option. Centralized target share for the Blue Devils, with Hagans now third on the team with 12 targets this season.
Pivot Play – WR Jalon Calhoun ($5,700) In general, this is a very strong Irish secondary, but the outside corners are the team’s strength. The weak link would be at nickel corner who would matchup with Calhoun in the slot. Should not come as a surprise then that Emeka Egbuka, who played 76% of his reps last week inside, was the featured option with seven receptions on 10 targets.
Best of the Rest – WR Jordan Moore ($5,300) Related to the Calhoun conversation above, Moore is likely to be matched up with Benjamin Morrison, Notre Dame’s top cornerback who limited Marvin Harrison Jr. to just 3-32-0 on seven targets. Calhoun is the preferred option if choosing a Duke receiver. TE Nicky Dalmolin ($3,600) now has three receptions in each of the last two games. Ohio State’s Cade Stover was targeted 10 times last week.
Injury Notes – n/a
South Carolina vs. Tennessee
Point-Spread: UT -12
O/U Total: 61.5
Implied Score: UT 37 – SC 25
Weather: 79 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
South Carolina:
Top Play(s) – WR Xavier Legette ($6,100) Simply too cheap for the nation’s leader in receiving yards. This is an average SEC secondary, ranking 67th in pass D success rate – it’ll just be a matter of if South Carolina gives Spencer Rattler enough time in the pocket to get the ball out to his WR1. The Gamecocks are dead last in the SEC in sacks allowed this season.
Fade – RB Dakereon Joyner ($5,600) Joyner is a tremendous asset and leader to any college football program, but he is NOT a bellcow running back. That was proven after averaging just 2.6 yards per carry through four games. Was relegated to just 22 of 70 offensive snaps last week in the win over Mississippi State.
Bargain Bin – WR O’Mega Blake ($3,500) I really hope this play does not come to fruition because I’ve hammered the under on his 42.5-yard receiving prop. That said, Blake has seen a lot of on-field work the last two weeks, playing over 75% of the offensive snaps. Minimal production, but he’s on the field in a pass-first offense.
Pivot Play – RB Mario Anderson ($4,400) Taking a wait and see approach here with Anderson who stepped in last week to rush for 88 yards and a touchdown in the win over MSU. Best rushing performance of the season, by far, for a Gamecocks running back, but it took 26 carries (3.4 YPC) to get it done. South Carolina is still bottom third nationally in rushing, facing a Tennessee defense that is 13th in rush D success rate. Anderson should see the most carries of any SC running back, but cannot guarantee it’ll be all that effective.
Best of the Rest – QB Spencer Rattler ($7,300) The Vols are allowing just 11.3 FPPG to opposing QBs this season. Really strong number. The QBs they’ve faced? Graham Mertz, Eddie Lee Marburger, Tony Muskett and whoever plays quarterback for Austin Peay. South Carolina is 28th in pass play percentage this season and are a double-digit road underdog. Rattler will be chuckin’ it.
Injury Notes – WR Ahmarean Brown ($5,300) After missing the last two games, Brown has reportedly practiced all week and will be available. Was targeted 11 times in the first two weeks and should start ahead of Eddie Lewis in the slot.
Tennessee:
Top Play(s) – QB Joe Milton ($9,300) This could change if we get word that some Tennessee skill players are listed as out for Saturday night, but we’ll lean here with the QB1 that faces a South Carolina secondary which is 116th in pass D success rate and dead last in the SEC in yards allowed through the air (317). Milton apparently injured his knee late in the game vs. UTSA last week but is deemed probable. Shouldn’t impact his arm, but curious to see if Milton runs less than usual.
Fade – WR Dont’e Thornton ($4,300) All the hype around Thornton in the offseason was clearly overblown. The Oregon transfer still has not eclipsed 100 yards for the season after playing in three games while sharing the slot position with Squirrel White. We’ll get to some of the UT injuries in a second. But what I found notable last week with Thornton is that the staff didn’t move him outside in place of some of the injured Tennessee starters. Plan seems to be to keep Thornton in the slot regardless, which diminishes his value.
Bargain Bin – WR Kaleb Webb ($3,900) Webb’s potential value for this slate is fully dependent on the status of Ramel Keyton, whom Webb replaced in the lineup after his injury against UTSA. Keyton plays, Webb is not under consideration, and vice versa if he’s out. Simple as that.
Pivot Play – RB Jabari Small ($6,400) Would not be surprised to see Jaylen Wright sit this week, meaning Small enters the lineup as the RB1. Debatable if you think he should be RB1 or not as sophomore Dylan Sampson has outplayed him in limited snaps but looking back at Tennessee’s most competitive games this season, Small is the trusted option between the two. This is a mediocre South Carolina run defense, allowing 16.4 FPPG to opposing RB1s and are 104th in EPA/per rush play.
Best of the Rest – WR Squirrel White ($5,800) Tough to consider given what White has done so far this season, which is well below preseason expectation. White does lead the team with 17 receptions on 28 targets, but everything is within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage and has not found the end-zone yet this season. That said, he is the healthiest of the Tennessee starting receivers. If there ever was a game to breakout…
Injury Notes – WR Bru McCoy ($6,500) McCoy is considered a game-time decision officially, but the Tennessee 247 website pegged him as probable. WR Ramel Keyton ($6,300) appears less likely to play as he’s listed as questionable, though the UT wide receiver coach came out this week and stated he expects everyone to be available. RB Jaylen Wright ($6,500) took a helmet-to-helmet hit last week against UTSA. Given the seriousness with head injuries, it wouldn’t surprise to see Wright sit against South Carolina, but remains a GTD. UPDATE – Keyton and Wright expected to play.
Iowa State vs. Oklahoma
Point-Spread: OU -20
O/U Total: 48.5
Implied Score: OU 34 – ISU 14
Weather: 88 degrees / 0% rain / 11 mph winds
Iowa State:
Top Play(s) – WR Jaylin Noel ($4,800) Double-digit receptions in each of the last two games played for Noel who is benefitting from the uptick in pass rate from the Cyclones. Figure again the Iowa State will take to the air on Saturday as a near 3-TD underdog. Noel has more value on DK than Fanduel because of the scoring format.
Fade – RB Cartevious Norton ($4,500) I don’t suggest rostering any Iowa State running backs, but particularly Norton this week despite being confirmed available for Saturday. Beat writer covering the Cyclones projected Eli Sanders ($4,100) will see the majority of carries Saturday against an Oklahoma defense that has been stifling against the run, allowing just 7.3 FPPG to opposing RB1s.
Bargain Bin – WR Jayden Higgins ($3,500) Second on the team in targets (24), receptions (13) and first among Iowa State receivers in routes run. Similar argument to Noel above in that the passing volume has gone up in recent weeks, so Higgins will see more targets as a result.
Pivot Play – WR Daniel Jackson ($4,100) Best performance of Jackson’s Iowa State career last week with 6-90-2 on six targets. A distant third for targets and routes run behind Noel and Higgins, but maybe the upward trajectory will continue for Jackson for another week. His playing time has steadily increased with each game.
Best of the Rest – QB Rocco Becht ($5,500) Can’t ever advise playing an Iowa State quarterback these days, but it seems as though Matt Campbell has finally figured out that his offensive line still can’t run block, he doesn’t have Breece Hall anymore, and his offensive system might only work at the G5 level. Hence, Iowa State is averaging 35.3 pass attempts per game over the last three weeks. We like that for Iowa State receivers more than the Iowa State quarterback.
Injury Notes – n/a
Oklahoma:
Top Play(s) – WR Andrel Anthony ($6,000) We were on the wrong receiver this offseason for the OU WR1. Former Michigan transfer Andrel Anthony looks to have secured that role with over 100 receiving yards in each of the last two weeks, functioning as the team’s top deep threat as well. Iowa State has allowed just two receivers to hit double-digit fantasy points this season, but that tends to happen when facing Oklahoma State, Iowa, Northern Iowa, and Ohio in the first month. The OU passing game is a different animal.
Fade – RB Marcus Major ($5,200) I don’t understand the Oklahoma running back room, and I think the OU fans share that sentiment. HC Brent Venables came out this week and said that none of the four contenders have established themselves enough to warrant consistent carries. I honestly think RB coach DeMarco Murray evaluates which running back had the best week of practice for that given week and that guy will get the bulk of the work. If we get word that Jovantae Barnes or another RB is definitely out, maybe we’ll give some consideration to Major, but that’s the only scenario.
Bargain Bin – WR Nic Anderson ($4,300) As expected, we did see a condensed rotation at receiver with Anthony, Drake Stoops and Jalil Farooq seeing the bulk of the playing time. Prized freshman Nic Anderson still found his way onto the field for rotational reps and managed to find paydirt for the fourth time in two weeks. A clear WR4 for the Sooners, but too talented to keep off the field.
Pivot Play – WR Jalil Farooq ($6,600) Had a lot invested last week in Farooq going over 9 fantasy points but converted on just two of his seven targets. I’ve seen his betting player prop jump about 10 yards higher than its opening number through the week, so folks are gambling on a bounce-back performance. Sits third in receptions and targets for the Sooners but first among receivers in routes run.
Best of the Rest – QB Dillon Gabriel ($9,500) If Alan Bowman can score 24 fantasy points against this Cyclone secondary, I have to imagine Gabriel is plenty capable of hitting 30+. A 26-point projection at $9.5k doesn’t warrant a must-start here but need some exposure in multi-entry GPPs. Iowa State’s secondary actually ranks 6th in pass D success rate, so don’t view this as a gimme matchup.
Injury Notes – RB Jovantae Barnes ($6,300) Have not seen any injury updates, but Barnes did not play a single snap last week vs. Cincinnati. Not even worth risking given the odd rotations all year from the coaching staff and how they’ve rotated the running backs.
Michigan State vs. Iowa
Point-Spread: Iowa -10.5
O/U Total: 36.5
Implied Score: Iowa 23.5 – MSU 13
Weather: 83 degrees / 2% rain / 9 mph winds
Michigan State:
I don’t get paid enough to do any sort of research about this game on a Friday evening when writing this. We don’t have a single player projected over 12 fantasy points. Avoid the quarterback situation as QB Noah Kim ($6,800) could be replaced at a moment’s notice. RB Nathan Carter ($6,000) is dominating the volume share in the MSU backfield with 74% of the carries that have gone to Spartan running backs. The trouble is Iowa is allowing just 8.0 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season. We know Carter will touch the ball, but unlikely it’ll be that effective. TE Maliq Carr ($4,500) has been targeted at least five times in three of his first four games. If I’m attempting to roster a Michigan State receiver (I’m not), I’d dumpster dive with redshirt freshman WR Jaron Glover ($3,200) who ran the second most routes among MSU receivers last week vs. Maryland. 40 or more yards in three of the first four contests, and I’d think we all agree that it’s time for this program to get a long look at some underclassmen who could be part of the future in East Lansing.
Iowa:
We’re getting three touchdowns here if Vegas is accurate, but would you be surprised in the least bit if those scores come from Iowa’s defense or special teams? RB Leshon Williams ($5,200) is the only player under consideration here, but even that’s a stretch with just a 12-point projection. MSU has been very good to start 2023 against the run, ranking 44th in rush D success rate and allowing just 4.5 FPPG to opposing RB1s.
Pittsburgh vs. Virginia Tech
Point-Spread: Pitt -2.5
O/U Total: 40.5
Implied Score: Pitt 21.5 – Va Tech 19
Weather: 68 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Pitt:
Sigh of relief last week from RB Rodney Hammond ($5,100) owners as we finally saw him utilized in the fashion we expected coming into the season with 14 carries for 83 yards and a touchdown…and would have been 100+ had UNC not extended the lead to double digits. HC Pat Narduzzi promised another heavy workload for Hammond against on Saturday – your choice to decide if you believe the Narddog or not. Virginia Tech has been atrocious defending the run this season, allowing 24.3 FPPG to RB1s and 95th in rush D success rate. WR Konata Mumpfield ($5,500) has been emerging with 17 of his 26 targets coming in the last two weeks. Had 11 vs. North Carolina. Last quick note on Rodney Hammond to close – In the Virginia Tech preview, the beat writer stated, “If Hammond can’t play this week”. I haven’t seen an update there, but just something that raised an eyebrow.
Virginia Tech:
Top Play(s) – QB Kyron Drones ($5,500) Drones is the poster boy for “you don’t have to be a good passer to be a good college fantasy football option.” Under 60% completion rate the last two weeks as the starter and failed to hit 200 passing yards against Rutgers and Marshall. That said, he’s averaging over 20 fantasy points the last two games because of his rushing ability with over 70 yards on the ground in both contests. This is not the same dominant Pitt defense we’ve seen in recent seasons, but have been good against the pass, allowing just 15.7 FPPG to opposing QB1s.
Fade – RB Malachi Thomas ($4,300) Strong transfer candidate after the season in my opinion. Thomas is now firmly entrenched as the backup running back for the Hokies and has yet to average more than 3.0 yards per carry in any game this season. Wouldn’t surprise me to see this staff get a look at some of the younger options on the roster soon.
Bargain Bin – TE Dae’Quan Wright ($3,400) Physically, Wright can become an all-conference tight end. The consistency is maddening, though, converting on just 52.4% of his targets with four drops. Has seen at least four targets in every game this season, facing a defense that allows 10.3 FPPG to opposing TE1s – 13th highest number in the country.
Pivot Play – WR Jaylin Lane ($5,200) Overall numbers aren’t bad for the Pitt secondary as we alluded to above, but they’re also not great either. QBs are completing 69% of their passes against Pitt – 124th in the FBS. Pro Football Focus also has the Panthers 10th in the ACC in coverage grades. Could be a spot for Lane to work the underneath routes if Pitt is allowing such a high completion percentage.
Best of the Rest – RB Bhayshul Tuten ($5,400) The Pitt run defense has always been solid under Narduzzi, and 2023 is no exception as the Panthers are allowing under three yards per carry and 20th in rush D success rate. That said, opposing RB1s are averaging 18.3 FPPG vs. Pitt. Why the discrepancy? I think the Pitt offense has a lot to do with it. Starting field position for Pitt opponents is the 49-yard line. Teams don’t have to go far to score on the Panthers.
Injury Notes – WR Ali Jennings ($5,900) Jennings had an ambiguous tweet this week that he can’t wait to be back on the sidelines to help the Hokies. There is no official update for his status on Saturday, but when articles are describing the situation as “it’s possible Jennings returns at some point this season,” we take that to mean he’s not coming back anytime soon.
West Virginia vs. TCU
Point-Spread: TCU -13.5
O/U Total: 52
Implied Score: TCU 33 – WVU 19
Weather: 90 degrees / 0% rain / 11 mph winds
West Virginia:
Top Play(s) – RB CJ Donaldson ($5,800) West Virginia should be more balanced with Garrett Greene back under center, but the Mountaineers still rank 4th nationally in rush play percentage in 2023 at 66.8%. Only teams in college football ahead of them are the military academies running triple option. So, we know Donaldson will get the football, it’s a matter of how effective can he be? Outside of the Dylan Edwards explosion in Week 1, TCU has been solid against the run, ranking 41st in rush D success rate. SMU’s Camar Wheaton did find some success last week with 71 yards and a TD vs. the Horned Frogs.
Fade – WR Cortez Branham ($4,600) Because West Virginia runs so much, we’re going to mostly fade the secondary cast of characters in the Mountaineer passing attack. That includes Branham who has just one catch for three yards in games that Greene has started this year. FWIW – Branham has run the second most routes this season among WVU receivers.
Bargain Bin – TE Kole Taylor ($4,500) The former LSU transfer has found the end-zone in each of the last two games, and now leads the team in targets (16) and receptions (11). TCU allowed 7.4 fantasy points last week to SMU tight end RJ Maryland.
Pivot Play – QB Garrett Greene ($6,200) It was announced by Brett McMurphy of the Action Network that Greene would be back in the starting lineup after suffering an ankle injury in Week 3. His legs always keep him in the conversation for DFS, though you wonder if the ankle will impact his running ability at all Saturday, because Greene as a pure pocket passer is far less attractive. TCU is 69th in pass D success rate but have shut down decent quarterbacks in the last two weeks with Donovan Smith and Preston Stone combining for just 17 fantasy points. Houston and SMU have their own separate issues, though.
Best of the Rest – WR Devin Carter ($5,200) Look back to the last time Greene and WR1 Devin Carter were on the field together. The former NC State transfer went for 6-90-0 on eight targets against a very good Penn State secondary in Week 1.
Injury Notes – n/a
TCU:
Top Play(s) – RB Emani Bailey ($6,800) I didn’t think that TCU would have another Keandre Miller this season and that prediction looks to be dead wrong. Bailey has a stranglehold on the RB1 job with three 100-yard rushing performances. His counterpart, RB Trey Sanders ($4,300) has seen single digit carries in each of the last three weeks. Our concerns about Bailey’s lack of red-zone usage are ceasing.
Fade – WR Savion Williams ($5,900) A complete non-factor last week with zero targets and now could be relegated to backup duties with Dylan Wright possibly back in the lineup. We already know how much TCU spreads the ball around.
Bargain Bin – WR Major Everhart ($3,300) Have watched a good bit of TCU this season and the redshirt freshman slot receiver continues to impress. Playing time has increased with every passing week and saw a career-high four receptions on six targets in last week’s victory. Everhart also doubles as the team’s kickoff returner.
Pivot Play – QB Chandler Morris ($8,200) The West Virginia pass defense has me skittish about considering Morris in this spot. No. 2 nationally in pass D success rate and allowing just 13.1 FPPG to opposing QB1s. I know Texas Tech has their issues offensively but holding the Red Raiders to under 200 passing yards is an impressive feat. Teams improve as the season goes along, but you also remember the Week 1 performance where future 1st-round draft pick Drew Allar carved up this secondary.
Best of the Rest – WR Jaylon Robinson ($4,800) TCU will rotate seven different receivers periodically throughout the game so it’s pure guesswork as to which will be the top option on that given day. If looking to increase your bites at the apple, Robinson has run the most routes of any TCU receiver this season by a fairly significant margin and is third on the team with 18 targets. TE Jared Wiley ($4,300) caught two touchdown passes vs. SMU and is now tied for first with John Paul Richardson for targets with 20. West Virginia is allowing just 3.6 FPPG to opposing TE1s this season.
Injury Notes – WR Dylan Wright ($5,500) Designated as questionable, but the TCU game preview for the week seems to indicate that Wright will be back in the lineup. If you’re into this sort of thing, two TCU beat writers predicted Wright to score a touchdown in his first game back since Week 1 where, coincidentally, he scored a TD as well vs. Colorado.
