Kentucky vs. Mississippi
Point-Spread: Miss -15
O/U Total: 53
Implied Score: Miss 34 – UK 19
Weather: 66 degrees / 27% rain / 13 mph winds
Mississippi:
Top Play(s) – QB Jaxson Dart ($9,800) Dart is not the lock he is in most weeks, given both the potential weather and the matchup. Kentucky is allowing just 7.9 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks so far this year, with an impressive performance two weeks ago limiting Georgia to its lowest output of the season. Weather is up in the air given the circumstances of Hurricane Helene, but reports as of Thursday show just 20% chance rain and winds only around 10 MPH. Should be ok on that front.
Fade – WR Jordan Watkins ($5,800) We’ll have more interest in Watkins down the line in potential shootout situations. This is not one of those instances, and Watkins is priced up despite being listed as “probable” in the official injury report. Since coming back from injury, Watkins has had a touchdown in each of the last two games, playing over 60% of the offensive snaps. Target volume is down, though, as he’s the 3rd or 4th option in the passing game.
Bargain Bin – TE Caden Prieskorn ($4,000) The Ole Miss TE1 plays 59% of the offensive snaps, running a route 46% of the time. Kentucky is allowing 6.4 FPPG to opposing tight ends. Prieskorn’s aDOT has fallen dramatically since the first few weeks against lesser competition – just 6.0 yards down field on four targets vs. Georgia Southern last week.
Pivot Play – RB Henry Parrish ($6,800) Parrish has taken over the Mississippi backfield with no other secondary option much of a factor at all. Kentucky’s run defense has been elite to start the season, ranking 7th in rush D success rate and allowing only 12 FPPG to opposing running backs.
Best of the Rest – WR Tre Harris ($9,100) or Antwane Wells ($5,000) In future matchups, we can potentially consider stacking the Ole Miss receivers with the torrid pace that Jaxson Dart is on in his Heisman campaign. This probably isn’t the week as Kentucky will look to slow the pace, but either Harris or Wells are always going to be an option. Three receivers have scored double-digit fantasy points against the UK secondary this season. Harris currently ranks third among all FBS wide receivers in fantasy points scored this year behind only Tai Felton and Nick Nash.
Injury Notes – n/a
Kentucky:
Top Play(s) – WR Dane Key ($4,600) Not necessary to roster any Kentucky receiver, but Key is coming off a season-best performance against Ohio last week with 7-145-0 on 10 targets. Game script should dictate Kentucky needing to throw the football more than they’re accustomed to. Despite not having a touchdown this season, Key feels like the best chance to score among Kentucky wideouts with a 17.6 YPC average and aDOT of over 17 yards.
Fade – QB Brock Vandagriff ($5,000) Kentucky is dead last in the SEC in passing, facing an Ole Miss defense that is allowing just 7.2 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. No thanks.
Bargain Bin – WR Barion Brown ($5,000) Second on the team in targets (17), receptions (12) and routes run, with two of the team’s three receiving touchdowns. 11 of the 17 targets have come in the last two games. Brown could have some added value in the run game with six carries and a touchdown through the first month.
Pivot Play – RB Demie Sumo-Karngbaye ($4,800) The price tag is appealing here as Demie Sumo should get the bulk of the carries again with Chip Trayanum out again this week. But this is the No. 1 rush defense in the country in terms of success rate and has yet to allow an opposing starting running back to score over 12 fantasy points this season.
Best of the Rest – WR Ja’Mori Maclin ($4,500) The North Texas transfer, coming off a career year, looks to be a second-stringer at this point, falling behind Fred Farrier II in snaps played the last two weeks. Maclin was not target a single time against Ohio.
Injury Notes – RB Chip Trayanum ($5,000) Trayanum is getting closer to returning, as soon as next week, but was ruled out on Wednesday.
Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State
Point-Spread: KSU -5
O/U Total: 57
Implied Score: KSU 31 – OSU 26
Weather: 73 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Oklahoma State;
Top Play(s) – WR Brennan Presley ($7,100) Team leader in targets (43), receptions (27) and touchdowns (4). While outside receivers have had the most success vs. Kansas State, we’ve seen Tulane’s Mario Williams go for 100+ against this secondary, scoring 18 fantasy points. Limit one Oklahoma State receiver per lineup.
Fade – QB Alan Bowman ($7,700) Oklahoma State is sticking with Bowman as QB1 but was replaced briefly coming out of halftime last week against Utah. If the struggles for Bowman continue on the road, does Mike Gundy consider making a change again? Low floor and limited upside here with Bowman as he’s a non-runner facing a defense that hasn’t allowed a QB to score more than 19 fantasy points yet this season.
Bargain Bin – WR Rashod Owens ($4,500) Boundary receivers have given KSU the most fits, with five different wideouts scoring 12 or more fantasy points against the Wildcats. Owens had a season-high 10 targets last week vs. Utah.
Pivot Play – RB Ollie Gordon ($9,200) Makes little sense to roster Gordon this week given the declining volume and high price tag. I cannot believe how disastrous the OSU run game has been given all the returning pieces, ranked 130th in rush success rate. Just recall, though – we’re right at that point in the season where Gordon turned it up in 2023, rushing for 100+ in eight of his last nine games. Do we see the same turnaround in 2024? RBs have found success against Kansas State this season with Makai Hughes (27.5 fpts) and Sione Moa (18.3 fpts).
Best of the Rest – WR De’Zhaun Stribling ($5,800) Second in targets (33), receptions (20) and first on the team in routes run. Stribling played 100% of the offensive snaps last week vs. Utah.
Injury Notes – n/a
Kansas State:
Top Play(s) – RB DJ Giddens ($8,500) Know what teams do after a blowout loss? Get back to their identity. Giddens is averaging over six yards per carry this season and Oklahoma State is dreadful defending the run, ranked last in the conference in yards allowed on the ground. I expect 20+ carries for Giddens on Saturday.
Fade – WR Dante Cephas ($3,400) Cephas had two drops vs. Arizona and its been downhill since. His playing time has gone from 41% in Week 1 to 32% in Week 3 and then a season-low 21% vs. BYU last week. He’s WR4 in run-based offense now.
Bargain Bin – WR Keagan Johnson ($4,000) Tied for second on the team in targets (11) and routes run, playing a season-high 81% of snaps vs. BYU last week. We’d be hesitant to roster any KSU wide receiver as this is the worst passing attack in the Big 12, averaging just 160 yards per game.
Pivot Play – RB Dylan Edwards ($6,000) We don’t think Kansas State will want to throw the football at all, given this is one of the best rushing attacks in the country taking on the worst run D in the Big 12. Edwards needs to be more involved as the team’s second-best weapon on offense. A run-heavy game script could lead to Edwards hitting value.
Best of the Rest – QB Avery Johnson ($8,000) Teams haven’t needed to throw much on Oklahoma State given their deficiency defending the run. Avery Johnson has been a disappointment relative to preseason expectations, but the Cowboys did struggle with a similar architype of QB in Taylen Green earlier this season, allowing 26 fantasy points. Hopefully KSU lets their QB1 run some more this week. WR Jayce Brown ($4,800) leads the team in every receiving category, aside from touchdowns. Three wideouts have scored 16 or more fantasy points against Oklahoma State.
Injury Notes – n/a
Maryland vs. Indiana
Point-Spread: IU -6.5
O/U Total: 51.5
Implied Score: IU 29 – MD 22.5
Weather: 67 degrees / 79% rain / 9 mph winds
Maryland:
Top Play(s) – WR Tai Felton ($7,700) Felton ranks second in the country in targets (54) and receptions (41), third in yards (599), and now second in fantasy points scored amongst collegiate receivers. The senior is on a torrid pace with four straight 100-yard performances and north of 33 FPPG. Don’t see any reason to fade him at this rate.
Fade – RB Roman Hemby ($5,500) Everyone on the MD side is priced appropriately and we still really don’t know how good / bad the Indiana defense is because they haven’t played anyone. Maryland may continue to lean on the veteran Hemby but is being outplayed by backup RB Nolan Ray ($4,000) in almost every metric – yards per attempt, yards after contact and breakaway percentage. I’d rather spend down and take a chance on the better player if anything.
Bargain Bin – See above with Nolan Ray.
Pivot Play – WR Kaden Prather ($4,500) This is still a team target share that is dominated right now by the top two receivers, with Felton and Prather combining for 57% of the targets and seven of the nine receiving touchdowns. At some point, defenses will shade even more towards Felton, opening up opportunities for Prather.
Best of the Rest – QB Billy Edwards ($7,700) Edwards continues to be an upgrade over Taulia Tagovailoa, now third in the B1G in yards per game through the air with an 8-2 touchdown to interception ratio. This could be a week to fade though as the Indiana pass defense has been very good, not allowing a quarterback to score more than 10 fantasy points. The QBs faced? Trexler Ivey, Keyone Jenkins and Ethan Garbers. We can’t judge the Hoosiers defense just yet. WR Octavian Smith ($3,600) is the third option in the passing game, playing 63% of the team’s offensive snaps.
Injury Notes – n/a
Indiana:
Top Play(s) – WR Elijah Sarratt ($5,500) Tough to choose an Indiana player as the top option considering their offensive skill players rotate as much as any team in the country. Sarratt still is the team’s WR1 for now, and Maryland has been giving up points in bunches to opposing WRs. And that includes some offenses in Michigan State and UConn that don’t throw the ball effectively. MSU’s Nick Marsh and Jaron Glover combined for 55 fantasy points in their matchup with MD.
Fade – WR Omar Cooper Jr. ($5,100) and RB Kaelon Black ($5,300) Cooper is now splitting time with Ohio transfer WR Miles Cross ($4,000) at one outside position, with the latter being far more effective the last two games with 11 receptions on 13 targets. He’s the secondary WR target for Indiana over Cooper in our eyes. Black, the James Madison transfer, is the fourth option at running back, playing just 30% of the offensive snaps.
Bargain Bin – TE Zach Horton ($3,900) Cross is probably the best bargain bin option for the Hoosiers, but Horton would be second considering how much he’s on the field, playing over 90% of the offensive snaps. Just eight targets so far, but Horton can be a red-zone threat as he had six touchdowns last season with James Madison.
Pivot Play – RBs. The Hoosiers currently lead the B1G with 18 rushing touchdowns, averaging nearly six yards a carry. With that said I’m not sure we can roster an Indiana running back given how much they split this season with a near 50-50 division between Justice Ellison and Ty Son Lawton. That was fine against Charlotte. Maryland has yet to allow a running back to score more than 10 fantasy points against them, though.
Best of the Rest – QB Kurtis Rourke ($7,500) Maryland’s pass defense, despite what we said about WRs above, has been the relative strength on that side of the ball. 49th in pass D success rate, 45th in EPA per pass play and just one QB so far that’s scored more than 15 fantasy points. Rourke is on the outside looking in for QB options this week. WR Myles Price ($4,600) is the third option behind Sarratt and Cross for Indiana receivers, now with an 88% catch rate on 16 targets.
Injury Notes – n/a
Minnesota vs. Michigan
Point-Spread: UM -10
O/U Total: 36
Implied Score: UM 23 – Minn 13
Weather: 67 degrees / 54% rain / 10 mph winds
Minnesota:
Just two realistic options on the Minnesota side of things with RB Darius Taylor ($7,700) and WR Daniel Jackson ($5,000), with the latter of the two being more intriguing. It was a slow start for Jackson who was dealing with injury coming into the regular season, but now seems to be hitting his 2023 form. Double-digit targets in each of the last two games. Michigan start DB Will Johnson was injured towards the end of the USC matchup so TBD on if he’s 100 percent or not. Taylor, meanwhile, faces a Michigan run defense that has not been as stout as preseason expectations. That said, neither have the Gophers, ranked 101st in rush success rate on offense. Longshot play would be WR Elijah Spencer ($4,500) who has emerged as the clear WR2 behind Jackson, now with 12 receptions on 15 targets, running a route on 70% of his offensive snaps.
Michigan:
Top Play(s) – RB Kalel Mullings ($7,200) We were previously under the impression this would be a split backfield with Donovan Edwards the entire season, but you’re *really* starting to see separation as to who the best back on the roster is. Even HC Sherrone Moore came out after the USC game and called Mullings the RB1. The Minnesota run defense was gashed this past week for 200+ yards to Iowa’s Kaleb Johnson.
Fade – WRs. You simply cannot afford to play Michigan wideouts anymore if Alex Orji is the quarterback, throwing for less than 50 yards against USC last week. Will Michigan even need to throw this Saturday against a below average Minnesota offense?
Bargain Bin – TE Marlin Klein ($3,100) Klein is an option only if Colston Loveland is out. The junior tight end played over 65% of the offensive snaps against the Trojans and was targeted four times which led the team.
Pivot Play – RB Donovan Edwards ($6,900) If DFS players are interested in a Michigan running back, 99% of them will look towards Mullings, and rightfully so. Edwards looks like the inferior running back and had a brutal fumble last week that could result in a further decline in volume. But after four games, that volume still results in around 13 touches per game. The Wolverines also have a head coach that doesn’t mind throwing less than 10 passes in a game so both Michigan backs “can” have value.
Best of the Rest – QB Alex Orji ($6,000) 32 passing yards on 12 attempts is not sustainable for a winning strategy in the B1G. So, Orji will need to throw more in the coming weeks. But his rushing volume – 13 attempts – will be the one constant to expect with Orji under center. Is that worth $6k? Not sure how much better the passing numbers will be against a secondary that is 8th in pass D success rate.
Injury Notes – TE Colston Loveland ($5,600) Latest reporting as of Tuesday writing this is that Sherrone Moore said Loveland is “trending in a positive direction” towards playing this weekend.
BYU vs. Baylor
Point-Spread: Bayl -3
O/U Total: 47
Implied Score: Bayl 25 – BYU 22
Weather: 78 degrees / 0% rain / 10 mph winds
BYU:
We’re likely going to fade the entire BYU offense this week as there are no standouts when looking at the projections and injury report. LJ Martin ($4,500) is not on the Week 5 depth chart so he’ll sit another week to rehab. And to add insult to injury, RB Sione Moa ($3,500) is in a boot and questionable this week now after rushing for 78 yards and a TD last week. So whoever gets the start at RB1 could be valuable – just no idea right now who that might be. RB Hinkley Ropati ($4,300) is likely to be back from injury and listed atop the depth chart. RB Pokaiaua Haunga ($3,100) averaged seven yards per carry against Wyoming, yet didn’t get a carry last week. QB Jake Retzlaff ($7,800) is probably the BYU player we’re most interested in but faces a Baylor defense that is allowing just 15 FPPG to opposing QBs and 11th in pass D success rate. WR Darius Lassiter ($3,700) is intriguing as a throwing bargain bin option, ranked second on the team with 19 targets and seeing the most offensive snaps of any BYU wideout last week against Kansas State.
Baylor:
As little interest in the BYU offense that we have, it might be even less on the Baylor side with just one player projected to score more than eight fantasy points. Four-man rotation at running back is of no interest to us. Neither is QB Sawyer Robertson ($5,500) against a defense that is giving up just 12.5 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. The wide receivers are cheap, but take your guess between Monaray Baldwin, Ketron Jackson, Josh Cameron and Ashtyn Hawkins. Analyzing all the data in the world wouldn’t provide you with clarification as to which Baylor receiver is the best option. TE Michael Trigg ($3,400) is the team leader in targets (17) and receptions (10) but was held out of the stat column against a below-average Colorado defense. Just nothing of interest here from a fantasy lens.
Nebraska vs. Purdue
Point-Spread: Neb -10
O/U Total: 48
Implied Score: Neb 29 – Purd 19
Weather: 71 degrees / 56% rain / 11 mph winds
Nebraska:
Top Play(s) – RB Dante Dowdell ($5,600) Notable that just two Nebraska running backs had rushing attempts vs. Illinois on Friday, with Dowdell out-carrying backup Rahmir Johnson 20-4. Not sure about Gabe Ervin Jr., but Emmett Johnson did play and did not receive a single attempt. Is this how the backfield will look moving forward? Beautiful matchup here against a Purdue run defense that is 95th in rush D success rate, having allowed four different running backs to score 15 or more fantasy points against them already.
Fade – RB Emmett Johnson ($4,500) On the same token, Johnson played just 21% of the offensive snaps without seeing a single rushing attempt. We’d fade both Johnson and Gabe Ervin for now.
Bargain Bin – WR Jahmal Banks ($3,900) Strange to see DK price down Banks after his best performance of the season with 8-94-0 on nine targets vs. Illinois last week. He’s tied atop the leaderboard with WR Isaiah Neyor ($5,200) for routes run on the season. Neyor has a 4-1 advantage in touchdowns this season, but from a target share and playing time standpoint, their salaries shouldn’t be this far apart.
Pivot Play – WR3. I want to be interested in either Jacorey Barney Jr. or Jaylen Lloyd because of the pricing, but don’t know who the surefire third option is here…if there even is one. The true freshman has been good, sitting third on the team in targets with a 87% catch rate. On the flipside, Lloyd played more against Illinois last week with over 46% of the offensive snaps played – more than Barney.
Best of the Rest – QB Dylan Raiola ($6,400) Outside of the Notre Dame game, the Purdue pass defense has been good, ranking 27th in success rate. And even then, the 32 fantasy points given up to Riley Leonard came mostly on the ground. Potential bad weather in Raiola’s first road matchup of his college career might make this a stay away for me.
Injury Notes – n/a
Purdue:
Top Play(s) – RB Devin Mockobee ($4,300) I hate with ever fiber in me putting Mockobee as the top play here given we’ve seen wonky rotations in the Purdue backfield in the last year and a half. From a pricing and matchup standpoint, he’s still the top option here as the Purdue passing game is a mess. Here’s why we’re cautious about having Mockobee here – Nebraska hasn’t allowed a running back to score more than eight fantasy points this season. But that includes Colorado, who doesn’t run, and Illinois who can’t run.
Fade – QB Hudson Card ($5,100) Some optimals out there might have Hudson Card as a play, but we cannot advocate starting a QB with 12 fantasy points for a projection. The WR room is a mess, particularly with Jahmal Edrine out again this week. Nebraska is tied for 21st nationally in sacks and has allowed just one QB to score more than 10 fantasy points against them so far this season. Card will not be in the GPP winning lineup.
Bargain Bin – TE Max Klare ($3,900) Just underpriced for a tight end that least the team in every receiving category. Nebraska allowed 12.6 fantasy points last week to Illinois’ TE1 and Illinois doesn’t even throw to the position that much in their scheme.
Pivot Play – A Purdue WR. I’d imagine Card will throw for more than 56 yards this week, but with Edrine out, this passing attack is looking bleak. Based on snaps played vs. Oregon State, top options look to be Jaron Tibbs, De’Nylon Morrisette and Shamar Rigby who all played over 53% of the game.
Best of the Rest – n/a. Outside of Mockobee and Klare, we’re fading the Boilermakers.
Injury Notes – WR Jahmal Edrine ($3,800) Expected to miss 3-4 weeks with an unspecified injury. He’s Purdue’s top playmaker at receiver which further alludes to the fact we should avoid Hudson Card here.
Arkansas vs. Texas A&M
Point-Spread: A&M -6
O/U Total: 52
Implied Score: A&M 29 – Ark 23
Weather: Dome
Arkansas:
Top Play(s) – WR Andrew Armstrong ($7,000) At some point, teams will start doubling Armstrong until another consistent playmaker emerges for the Razorbacks. Three games played for Armstrong, and three games with double digit targets since returning from injury. That’s now 28% of Arkansas’ total target share that Armstrong accounts for.
Fade – WR Tyrone Broden ($3,800) At some point Arkansas must make the switch to someone else opposite Armstrong, you would think right? 24 targets and just seven receptions – a 29% catch rate – and a team-high four drops. Broden will be replaced in the starting lineup at some point at this pace, though he continues to play over 3/4s of the offensive snaps.
Bargain Bin – TE Luke Hasz ($3,100) From the quotes from Sam Pittman, it appears as though Hasz is being asked to help with pass protection to aid the offensive line right now, hence his poor production with just one receptions in the last two games. Might be a chance to breakout this week if Arkansas can protect Taylen Green because tight ends have had their way with A&M. Harold Fannin is coming off a 29-point performance last week vs. the Aggies, and Florida’s Arlis Boardingham scored 10 fantasy points in his matchup.
Pivot Play – QB Taylen Green ($7,600) No sense in predicting what Taylen Green will do on a week-to-week basis because he’s been consistently inconsistent in 2024. The only consistent part of his game is the rushing volume, with 16 or more carries in each of the last three games. The deeper analytics suggest the A&M passing game is ripe to pick on, rankings 89th in pass success rate. But the higher-level numbers suggest stay away from Green. The Aggies have yet to allow a QB to score more than 13 fantasy points against them this season.
Best of the Rest – RB Ja’Quinden Jackson ($7,100) Jackson and Green continue to dominate the volume share at a 74% clip, so no running back other than Jackson should be considered. As for the matchup, the Aggies are 48th in rush D success rate and allowed just one running back to score more than 11 fantasy points so far. WR Isaiah Sategna ($3,800) is emerging as the WR2 behind Armstrong, now second in targets and routes run, averaging over 21 yards per catch.
Injury Notes – n/a
Texas A&M:
Top Play(s) – QB Marcel Reed ($7,000) If the Aggies had a go-to wide receiver, he’d be the frontrunner as the top play (more on that later), but they don’t – even with all that oil money to fund NIL. Reed has been exceptional since taking over the reins as QB1, with four passing touchdowns, zero interceptions and averaging over 26 fantasy points the last two weeks. Arkansas is 92nd in pass D success rate and we love Reed’s rushing volume, getting double-digit rushing attempts per week.
Fade – WR Moose Muhammad ($3,800) For what seems like the 3rd of 4th time now in his career, Muhammad is in the coach’s doghouse as he did not see a single snap against Bowling Green last week. Mike Elko gave the political answer of “we need to see more consistency out of him.” Easy fade.
Bargain Bin – WR Jabre Barber ($3,400) The Troy transfer played 47% of the offensive snaps last week in the slot at Muhammad’s expense, making it a season-high for playing time for Barber. We’d imagine that continues to increase as he returns from the preseason injury. Not much in terms of production yet, but this is still a player that posted 76 receptions a year ago.
Pivot Play – An A&M wide receiver. We’ve faded this group for much of the year, but might be time to have one in a lineup. Two wide receivers this season – KeAndre Lambert Smith and Brennan Presley – have scored over 30 fantasy points in their matchups with Arkansas this season, along with Harold Fannin’s big performance last week. One of Noah Thomas, Jahdae Walker or Cyrus Allen in a lineup makes some sense.
Best of the Rest – RB Le’Veon Moss ($6,000) Moss is just an average play this week. No running back has scored more than 15 fantasy points yet against the Razorbacks, and that includes facing Ollie Gordon and Jarquez Hunter. Arkansas is 17th in rush D success rate. But we know Moss will get 15-20 touches.
Injury Notes – QB Conner Weigman ($6,900) HC Mike Elko is hopeful that Weigman is available for Saturday, but they have the affordability be as patient as possible given the way Marcel Reed is playing. Aka, we’d be shocked if A&M starts Weigman.
Oklahoma vs. Auburn
Point-Spread: OU -1
O/U Total: 45
Implied Score: OU 23 – Aub 22
Weather: 79 degrees / 5% rain / 11 mph winds
Oklahoma:
Makes more sense here to talk about who isn’t playing vs. who is. Jackson Arnold probably he played his last down as an Oklahoma QB after being benched in favor of freshman QB Michael Hawkins Jr. ($7,900). The only appeal here is that Hawkins may run the ball 10-15 times because Oklahoma doesn’t have any healthy wide receivers. Nic Anderson, Jayden Gibson, Jalil Farooq are all confirmed out. WR Deion Burks ($6,800) is questionable as of Thursday. And WR Andrel Anthony ($3,400) is doubtful per 247Sports. Just as we all predicted before the season, OU’s starting receivers for Saturday would be WR Brenen Thompson ($3,600), Zion Ragins ($3,000) and Jaquaize Pettaway ($3,300).
Would make sense for the Sooners to lean into the run game with the mass amount of injuries, but OU can’t do that either – ranked 119th in rush success rate offensively. RB Jovantae Barnes ($4,700) would be the safest option as RB Taylor Tatum ($4,300) is doubtful and RB Gavin Sawchuk ($4,200) is the single biggest bust in college fantasy football this season.
Auburn:
Would not have said prior to the season that we have more interest in Auburn players over Oklahoma in this matchup, but here we are as the Tigers are seventh in the SEC in yards per game (462). Auburn just can’t get out of its own way, turning the ball over at an alarming rate. We’re not interested in the QB situation as HC Hugh Freeze could make a swap at moment’s notice between Payton Thorne and Hank Brown. This is probably a week to fade RB Jarquez Hunter ($6,300) as well given that Oklahoma’s defense is still one of the best in the country, ranking 10th in rush D success rate. So where do we go at receiver? WR Cam Coleman ($4,000) played about half the game against Arkansas last week and should be healthier for Saturday. WR KeAndre Lambert-Smith ($5,900) leads the team in routes run and touchdowns (5) after a breakout performance last week with 156 yards on nine targets. Can see a similar game script playing out this week with OU’s strength being the run defense. TE Rivaldo Fairweather ($3,700) is second on the team in targets, receptions, touchdowns and routes run.
TCU vs. Kansas
Point-Spread: KU -2
O/U Total: 59
Implied Score: KU 30.5 – TCU 28.5
Weather: 77 degrees / 5% rain / 13 mph winds
TCU:
Top Play(s) – WR Jack Bech ($7,200) Nick Nash and Tai Felton are on a tier by themselves among top fantasy receivers this season, but Jack Bech is not far behind. Double-digit targets in each of the last two games. And some boundary receivers like Bech have had some big games against this KU defense, namely last week with West Virginia’s Hudson Clement going for 22 fantasy points and over 100 yards.
Fade – RB Cam Cook ($6,200) GPP with 40+ lineups, having some exposure to Cook is fine given that he gets most of the carries for TCU. But this run game is sup-par for the Horned Frogs, ranked 77th in success rate and Kansas has yet to allow a running back to score more than 12 fantasy points against them this season.
Bargain Bin – TE Drake Dabney ($3,500) Thought the Baylor transfer would be more of a factor this season considering TCU’s TE1 last season finished as a top five fantasy tight end. Cheap enough to maybe give a look as Dabney has played 60% of the offensive snaps this season for TCU, and Kansas did allow 10 fantasy points to West Virginia’s TE1 last week.
Pivot Play – WR Eric McAlister ($4,800) The Boise State transfer has come on in recent weeks as his routes run per game have steadily increased. McAlister found the end-zone in each of the last two games with a season-best 114 receiving yards vs. SMU. This passing game becomes increasingly more valuable for TCU each week because the Frogs cannot run the football.
Best of the Rest – QB Josh Hoover ($8,500) TCU is sixth nationally in pass play percentage because of their inability to run the football consistently. Statistically, the KU secondary is the strength, ranking 22nd in pass D success rate, but hard to believe when they just allowed 33 fantasy points to Garrett Greene just last week. Hoover is going to be under consideration weekly because of the volume alone. WR Savion Williams ($5,800) has come back down to Earth since Week 1 but is still second on the team in targets and routes run. He’d be our third option currently behind Bech and McAlister. Two TCU receivers in a lineup is possible for GPP.
Injury Notes – n/a
Kansas:
Top Play(s) – RB Devin Neal ($6,600) Neal is a good play that gets downgraded slightly with the return of RB Daniel Hishaw Jr. ($4,800) from injury as we saw last week with him rushing for a touchdown at West Virginia. Neal still hit the century mark and faces a bad run defense that is 119th in rush D success rate.
Fade – TEs. Rinse, repeat. No KU tight end has scored more than five fantasy points in a game this season.
Bargain Bin – WR Lawrence Arnold ($3,800) or Quentin Skinner ($4,100) We’ve seen separation actually this season between Luke Grimm and the rest of the KU wideouts. Only from a production standpoint, though. Arnold and Skinner are both playing over 70% of the team’s offensive snaps still and a similar percentage of routes run. Grimm is the WR1, but both Arnold and Skinner are on the field plenty.
Pivot Play – QB Jalon Daniels ($7,500) The TCU defense has been better against the pass vs. the run, ranking 53rd in pass D success rate. Is that number inflated though by the QBs they’ve faced. Nobody is confusing KJ Jefferson, Ashton Daniels and Kevin Jennings as Tom Brady. Jefferson was able to throw three TDs on the Horned Frogs secondary.
Best of the Rest – WR Luke Grimm ($5,200) Grimm has separated from the pack with 23 receptions and three touchdowns on 34 targets. Hitting Grimm on the short to intermediate throws more often has been the difference with a 10.0 aDOT – the lowest of his career. Has allowed Grimm to get more targets than he’s seen at any point in his career.
Injury Notes – n/a
Colorado vs. Central Florida
Point-Spread: UCF -14
O/U Total: 62
Implied Score: UCF 38 – Col 24
Weather: 87 degrees / 72% rain / 10 mph winds
Colorado:
Top Play(s) – WR Travis Hunter ($10,100) Can’t say there’s a price right now at which we fade Travis Hunter. Four-straight 100-yard performances to begin the year, and while UCF can slow the pace somewhat with their run-based offense, the Knights have also struggled defending the pass.
Fade – RB Micah Welch ($4,500) Welch looks to be a real find as a 3-star freshman that should be the RB1 in Boulder over the next 3-4 years. Hopefully those talents don’t go to waste as Colorado is still 131st in rush play percentage.
Bargain Bin – WR Omarion Miller ($3,900) I’m unsure why Omarion Miller doesn’t get more playing time, especially over an ineffective Will Sheppard. Remember last year when Miller went off against USC for 196 yards and a score, and then proceeded to never be heard from again? Welp, first time on the stat sheet last week against Baylor and Miller went for 70 yards and a score. Huge risk inserting him into a lineup, but curious to see if his playing time increases here.
Pivot Play – WRs Not Named Travis Hunter. We know the story here at this point with Colorado showing up weekly on DFS slates. Stacking two or more in a lineup if fine given the Buffs are 4th nationally in pass play percentage. Looking at previous matchups, both outside and slot receivers have done well against the UCF secondary so both LaJohntay Wester and Jimmy Horn Jr. are candidates. Would not play Will Sheppard with Omarion Miller threatening for playing time.
Best of the Rest – QB Shedeur Sanders ($9,400) A 21-point projection doesn’t suggest we need to play Sanders here at this price tag. But in a similar game setting two weeks ago vs. TCU with a pass-happy offense, Josh Hoover did score 33 fantasy points on this defense. UCF currently ranks 125th in pass D success rate.
Injury Notes – n/a
Central Florida:
Top Play(s) – RB RJ Harvey ($8,900) Should be the highest priced running back on the slate over Ollie Gordon as the RB1 for the No.1 ranked rush offense in the country. And yes, he’s absolutely worth spending up for. Colorado run defense hasn’t been bad, but also not good either. Three different running backs have scored 16 fantasy points or more on the Buffs.
Fade – WRs Not Named Kobe Hudson. No wide receiver on the team that’s name is not Kobe Hudson has more than 40 receiving yards. Xavier Townsend plays consistently, and is second on the team with 10 targets, but is averaging just 3.2 yards per reception. Finding a legitimate WR3 to start opposite Hudson has been a failed experiment. Maybe someone emerges coming out of the bye week but wouldn’t count on it.
Bargain Bin – TE Randy Pittman ($3,500) The sophomore tight end is tied for second on the team in receptions (6), third in targets (8) and first in routes run. Pittman has played over 90% of the offensive snaps in each of the last two games.
Pivot Play – QB KJ Jefferson ($8,900) It’s progressively gotten better for Jefferson since Week 1, and finally had a bit fantasy performance in Week 3 vs. TCU with 28 fantasy points scored with 276 total yards and three scores. Colorado has been ok defending the pass, ranked 67th in pass D success rate, but coming off a game where they allowed 28 fantasy points to Baylor’s Sawyer Robertson. I’d probably just rather spend $100 more for Arch Manning in this situation to be honest.
Best of the Rest – WR Kobe Hudson ($7,300) The only legitimate pass-catching option UCF has right now. Four different receivers have scored double-digit fantasy points vs. Colorado already. UCF is fifth in the country in rush play rate (73.03%) so having multiple running backs in a lineup could potentially work. The issue is that RB Peny Boone ($6,500) at his price tag as just the team’s red-zone option essentially isn’t a viable option.
Injury Notes – n/a
Louisville vs. Notre Dame
Point-Spread: ND -7
O/U Total: 46
Implied Score: ND 26.5 – UL 19.5
Weather: 72 degrees / 46% rain / 11 mph winds
Louisville:
Top Play(s) – WR Ja’Corey Brooks ($5,700) Brooks remains underpriced this week as he’s had over 80 receiving yards in all three games this season. Is this the matchup where Brooks fails to hit that 80-yard mark? No wide receiver thus far has scored more than 10 fantasy points against the Irish secondary.
Fade – QB Tyler Shough ($7,400) Granted, the competition hasn’t been great for Notre Dame, but the Irish secondary grades out as elite thus far in the season. Notre Dame has allowed a grand total of 23 fantasy points combined to the four quarterbacks faced this season and rank 3rd in pass D success rate. I don’t mind rostering some of the UL receivers here, Brooks being the obvious, but I think we fade Shough this week.
Bargain Bin – RBs. All four active running backs for Louisville have at least one rushing touchdown this season and will get a volume bump with Maurice Turner not on the depth chart and out this week. Order of preference would probably be Isaac Brown, Keyjuan Brown, Don Chaney and then Duke Watson, but UL rotates so much in the backfield that all four are options. Notre Dame’s run defense has been poor to start the year, ranked 107th in rush D success rate.
Pivot Play – WR Chris Bell ($3,800) Another UL receiver that is underpriced by at least $1k. Bell is the clear WR2 behind Brooks, that is not up for debate but will remain that secondary option again this week with Caullin Lacy unlikely to suit up. Bell is second in routes run on the team and has found the end-zone in each of the last two games, averaging close to 30 yards per reception.
Best of the Rest – TE Mark Redman ($4,500) Cannot advocate playing Redman at this salary with his level of production so far. But you’re seeing the San Diego State transfer’s reps increase with each passing week, playing a season-high 67% of the snaps vs. Georgia Tech. Something to remember down the line perhaps with a better matchup.
Injury Notes – WR Caullin Lacy ($3,000) On Jeff Brohm’s weekly radio spot, he stated that “Caullin Lacy is out with a collarbone (injury), but he has just started practicing again. He’s not cleared to play this week, we’re hopeful for Notre Dame, if not the week after (vs. SMU). But he’s really come along well.” Doesn’t sound promising he’ll play on Saturday.
Notre Dame:
Top Play(s) – QB Riley Leonard ($7,900) I don’t love anyone on the Notre Dame side to be fair, but Leonard gets top billing as he’s rushed for 100+ in each of the last two games, scoring 35 fantasy points against both Miami (Ohio) and Purdue after almost being benched early in the season. Running QBs have found success against Louisville this season with Haynes King and Jax State’s Tyler Huff both scoring over 23 fantasy points vs. the Cardinals.
Fade – WR Jaden Greathouse ($4,000) Every year I find players that make their way onto the Fade list every single week. This year, Greathouse is that player, mostly because the hype coming into the season had folks thinking this would be a sophomore breakout. Not the case, with just one combined target in the last two games. Greathouse played just 43% of the snaps last week vs. Miami (Ohio).
Bargain Bin – WR Beaux Collins ($4,500) Inexpensive price for Notre Dame’s clear WR1 at this point. Team leader in targets (21) and routes run with over 25% of the team’s overall receiving production. We think Louisville attempts to make Notre Dame throw to beat them on Saturday.
Pivot Play – TE Mitchell Evans ($4,700) We were fading Evans early in the year coming back from injury, and probably still should given this isn’t the most effective passing attack. But notable to us that Evans’ reps have steadily been increasing, playing a season-high 65% of the snaps last week. Jacksonville State’s TE1 did score 11 fantasy points against this Louisville defense back in Week 1.
Best of the Rest – RB Jeremiyah Love ($6,000) Probably a good week to fade the Notre Dame rushing attack as Louisville ranks 4th nationally in rush D success rate, limiting a good back in Georgia Tech’s Jamal Haynes to under 30 yards last week. 11 fantasy points is the highest mark so far for a RB scoring on this UL front.
Injury Notes – n/a
Wisconsin vs. USC
Point-Spread: USC -14.5
O/U Total: 51.5
Implied Score: USC 33 – UW 18.5
Weather: 72 degrees / 0% rain / 4 mph winds
Wisconsin:
Top Play(s) – WR Will Pauling ($4,800) This season is playing out almost exactly how it did in 2023 for Pauling for who leads the team with 34% of the team’s target share and one of just two receiving touchdowns. The problem is Pauling’s targets aren’t really going anywhere, with just a 10.1 YPC average. Fine for a full-point PPR scoring system like DraftKings. But not a lot of upside here.
Fade – WR CJ Williams ($4,300) Revenge game storyline for Williams facing his former team. The issue is Williams likely won’t get much of a chance to make an impact. His 34% of snaps played in Week 3 vs. Bama was the lowest number of the top five Wisconsin wideouts.
Bargain Bin – WR Bryson Green ($4,000) Second on the team in both targets (13) and routes run, playing close to 75% of the team’s offensive snaps. Outside receivers have found some success against USC this season with Kyren Lacy nabbing 22 fantasy points in the opener. Jalen Royals did score 11 fantasy points in his matchup with the Trojans.
Pivot Play – RB Chez Mellusi ($6,100) or Tawee Walker ($5,000) Wisconsin will share the workload between Mellusi, Walker and even some Cade Yacamelli which came as a surprise to me when diving into the Badgers run game. The dam broke a few times against Kalel Mullings last week, but the USC run defense has been fine overall, ranked 36th in rush D success rate despite their 91st ranking in yards allowed on the ground. Wisconsin can run the ball against USC, but we’d limit to one back in the lineup.
Best of the Rest – QB Braedyn Locke ($5,800) Locke will take over for the injured Tyler Van Dyke who will miss the remainder of the season. Non-runner just like his predecessor. The advanced metrics don’t like this USC pass defense, but they’ve limited fantasy production. Between Utah State, Michigan and LSU, no QB has scored more than 20 fantasy points against the Trojans. We’d probably fade.
Injury Notes – n/a
USC:
Top Play(s) – RB Woody Marks ($7,100) Marks isn’t getting heavy volume in the run game, but hasn’t mattered the last two weeks, hitting 100 yards against both Michigan and Utah State. Marks’ involvement in the passing game is what is most intriguing, now with 11 receptions on 14 targets, including eight targets last week vs. Michigan. This is a defense in Wisconsin that allowed 22 fantasy points in the opener to Western Michigan’s RB1.
Fade – RB Quinten Joyner ($4,200) I suppose the spread suggests this could turn into a blowout, but I don’t see it happening. Not after the heart-breaking loss last week to Michigan and Wisconsin coming off a bye. Good spot for the Badgers here. In non-blowout situations, Woody Marks is playing over 80% of the snaps, making Joyner irrelevant.
Bargain Bin – WR Duce Robinson ($3,800) Speculation on my part, but I have a feeling Robinson becomes more of a factor here now that Lake McRee is likely done for the season. Robinson is just a big wide receiver / small tight end at 6-foot-6, 220 pounds that plays most of the time in the slot. WR Jay Fair ($3,300) also saw increased playing time vs. Michigan with all the injuries, finding the end-zone on three targets.
Pivot Play – WR Zachariah Branch ($5,000) Coming out party for Branch last week with 98 receiving yards on 11 targets. Sign of things to come or a one-off? The matchup was good against Michigan who is still struggling to find consistent starters in the secondary beyond Will Johnson. Alabama did have multiple receivers score double-digit fantasy points against this Wisconsin secondary.
Best of the Rest – QB Miller Moss ($7,300) High floor, low ceiling candidate here for Moss facing this Wisconsin defense. While the Badgers did allow 39 fantasy points to Jalen Milroe in Week 3, half of that point production came on the ground. Moss ain’t doing that. The Badgers rank 40th in pass D success rate, and limited both of their first two opponents in the passing game before the Alabama drubbing. WR Kyron Hudson ($4,800) and Ja’Kobi Lane ($5,000) are likely the full-time starting outside receivers for Saturday if Makai Lemon is out, limiting any rotation.
Injury Notes – WR Makai Lemon ($4,200) Questionable for this week after being knocked out of the game vs. Michigan on a special teams hit. Have no found an update as of Wednesday.
Mississippi State vs. Texas
Point-Spread: Tex -38.5
O/U Total: 61.5
Implied Score: Tex 50 – Miss St 11.5
Weather: 93 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Mississippi State:
Lowest implied team total on the slate heading into Saturday starting a freshman quarterback, making his first career start, on the road, against the No. 1 team in the country. This thing has a chance to spiral out of control fast for HC Jeff Lebby in Year 1. Out on the quarterback, obviously. The Bulldogs leaned into the run game last week with RB Johnnie Daniels ($3,400) and Davon Booth ($4,500), averaging nearly five yards per carry. I’d say pass on this vs. the Longhorns but this is a defense that also gave up 100+ to Colorado State’s Justin Marshall in Week 1. WR Kevin Coleman Jr. ($5,700) leads the team with 23% of the target share, though coming off his least impactful performance of the season. WR Mario Craver ($3,800) is intriguing this week has he had his best performance of the year with 3-62-0 on six targets vs. Florida. As the season goes along, look for Lebby to get his freshman more involved in a likely lost first year. TE Seydou Traore ($3,400) has a reasonable salary for a tight end that has 17 targets in the last three games, playing over 70% of the offensive snaps.
Texas:
Top Play(s) – RB Jaydon Blue ($7,400) Blue was back in full force against Louisiana-Monroe last week with 124 yards and a touchdown on 25 (!) carries, despite the game being out of reach. Tre Wisner could be back this week, so maybe we see Texas split the carries up again like they did the first three weeks. OR Blue becomes the RB1 that we expected out of the gates that Steve Sarkisian is known for producing on a yearly basis.
Fade – TE Amari NiBlack ($3,300) Maybe NiBlack should have stayed in Tuscaloosa? The Alabama doesn’t have an injury designation, yet did not play a single snap against ULM last week. Something else going on there, or just better players in Gunnar Helm and Juan Davis?
Bargain Bin – RB Jerrick Gibson ($4,200) Good time to tell you that Mississippi State doesn’t do anything well defensively, particularly on the ground where the Bulldogs are 105th in rush D success rate and 87th in EPA per rush play. Multiple running backs from Toledo and Florida scored double digit fantasy points in their matchup with MSU. Figure the same should be the case Saturday with Blue and Gibson.
Pivot Play – Backup WRs. In last week’s blowout, Silas Bolden and Ryan Wingo were second and third, behind Blue, in targets. Sophomore Johntay Cook saw a season-high 60% of the team’s offensive snaps vs. ULM. Was that just a case of circumstance being up 30 or are these players deserving of more involvement in the Texas offense. We’ll see this week.
Best of the Rest – QB Arch Manning ($9,000) Uneven performance last week from Manning, which should have been expected given all of the anticipation around his first start, but still wound up with 258 yards and two scores through the air. MSU is worse at defending the pass, ranked 123rd in pass D success rate, and allowed Graham Mertz to complete over 90% of his throws last week. Good option this week. As a result, I do think stacking multiple Texas WR with Manning in a lineup is a possible GPP option. WR Isaiah Bond ($4,800) and Matthew Golden ($5,100) have six of the 15 receiving touchdowns for Texas and are both way too cheap here.
Injury Notes – QB Quinn Ewers ($9,000) Stating the obvious, but if Ewers is 50-50 to play and not 100%, he ain’t playing as a 39-point favorite. RB Tre Wisner ($4,500) is questionable but was in full pads during pregame warmups last week, though eventually did not play vs. Louisiana-Monroe. Should be a good sign Wisner is available for Saturday.
