Notre Dame vs Arkansas
- Point Spread: Notre Dame -4.5
- Total : 64.5
Top Play(s) – Taylen Green ($9,100) was pretty bad last week against Memphis and yet managed to put up 23 fantasy points. He had some bad luck when it came to touchdown equity which I expect to turn around against Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish defense has been weak in 2025, giving up 250+ pass yards in back to back games and over 32 points allowed per game on defense this season. This isn’t your father’s Notre Dame defense. If Arkansas is going to perform to the level of their implied team total (29.5) then Green will be a huge part of it.
Coming into the season, Jeremiyan Love ($8,500) had never run for 17 times or more in a game. He’s done that in back to back games and with over 50% of rushing usage on top of that. A new quarterback and desperation thanks to 2 early losses will do that to an offensive system. Love’s production has come both through the air (4 receptions in 2 of 3 games) and big plays (8.3ypc against Purdue). Arkansas just gave up 147 on 12 carries to Sutton Smith, so why wouldn’t Love be able to do damage against the Razorbacks?
Fade – After their first game in which Notre Dame ran CJ Carr ($8,500) 11 times, he has since run the ball 5 times. Now, one of those games was a blowout but that Texas A&M game was tight throughout and yet they still preferred to have others tote the rock. Carr has looked better passing in those games but the volume just won’t be enough to warrant this price tag.
Bargain Bin – Notre Dame barely threw the ball against Purdue last week, but they did start the game off with a 60+ yard bomb to Malachi Fields ($3,800). He didn’t do much after that but that was the game script. In the shootout against the Aggies, Fields saw 11 targets catching 5 of them for 77 yards.
Pivot Play – If for some reason we do see a split backfield that’s even, Jadarian Price ($6,300) could be a huge play. He has 6 touchdowns on the season, all of them coming in the past two games. His higher price tag should lower his ownership.
Mike Washington Jr. ($6,100) has hit double digit fantasy points in all 4 contests this season. Like Price, he’s found success thanks to the end zone, scoring 5 times. If Notre Dame keys on Taylen Green then Washington could be the big time benefactor.
Injury Notes – N/A
Cincinnati vs Kansas
- Point Spread: Kansas – 4.5
- Total: 55.5
Top Play(s) – Jalon Daniels ($7,100) is really the top guy to target in this game from a pure production standpoint. Although honestly, nobody really jumps out as an elite high end performer. Daniels is a lower volume high efficiency guy that we have to hope benefits from Daniel Hishaw Jr. likely sitting this one out. Does the running back room thinning out mean more goalline opportunities for Daniels? He does have a high floor, but there is concern that this game stays lower scoring and his overall production is underwhelming for tournament entries.
Fade – You shouldn’t be targeting Cincinnati running backs in this one. Both Tawee Walker ($6,600) and Evan Pryor ($5,200) are aggressively priced and are splitting the backfield usage. It also doesn’t help that Sorsby is the main guy when it comes to rushing touchdowns.
Bargain Bin – What a bargain Brendan Sorsby ($6,400) is on this slate. Coming off the bye week, Sorsby should be well rested for their Big 12 opener. His volume isn’t going to knock your socks off (38 opportunities his best so far in 2025), but he’s the key to this offense. The implied team total sitting around 25 isn’t ideal, but the pricing helps us out here. The Mountaineer defense was exposed against Missouri allowing over 76% completion rate and 3 touchdowns on 39 attempts otherwise they really haven’t been tested. Sorsby is a bargain due to Vegas hating their outlook and lack of high end upside, but he’s certainly worth considering in all formats.
Leshon Williams ($3,900) certainly holds a ton of value if Hishaw is in fact injured for this one. He left the game fairly early and reports have come out that he was battling injuries during practice. Williams looked great in limited action against Fresno State in week 0 and he too battled injuries. Last week’s big performance over West Virginia (19/129/1) shows us that the price is right even with Kansas having an implied team total sitting in the teens.
Pivot Play – It won’t be a popular move at all but rostering Emmanuel Henderson Jr. ($4,700) could pay off in tournaments. He has a return touchdown on the year to go with 2 touchdown receptions in the opener. I don’t love this play as the volume is likely to be limited (6.5 targets per game in 2025), but the ownership is likely to be miniscule.
Injury Notes – Daniel Hishaw Jr. (Q)
Georgia Tech vs Wake Forest
- Point Spread: Georgia Tech -14
- Total: 52.5
Top Play(s) – Not surprisingly, Haynes King ($7,900) is your top option in this game. He is the heart beat of this offense and will be used as a battering ram all game long. Luckily, it’s week 5 and he’s coming off a game where he was lightly used thanks to the matchup against Temple. He’s fresh! The Yellow Jackets have an implied team total sitting around 33, which means all systems are a go here.
Demond Claiborne ($5,900) comes in as a bit of a bargain at this mid-range price tag. While he’s been inefficient against FBS opponents, his volume is there and should continue to be there as long as he stays healthy. He caught 8 passes in the loss to NC State, giving him a solid floor even if the run game isn’t working. Temple, Clemson, and Colorado have each ran for over 4.1ypc with Colorado/Clemson nearly touching 5ypc.
Fade – The receivers. All of em. No Yellow Jackets receiver has hit 6 targets in a game and the Wake Forest offense is led by solo-threat Robby Ashford. Why would you do this to yourself on a 12 game slate?
Bargain Bin – Ok, so Robby Ashford ($6,000) is a solo-threat. Who cares for fantasy purposes? The matchup should be just good enough for him to extend his rushing touchdown streak to 4 and I actually think he’s shown improvement in the passing game. The implied team total sits in the teens, but his price is cheaper than that of Jalon Daniels making that pill easier to swallow in large field tournaments.
Pivot Play – Volume is king and unfortunately, Jamal Haynes ($7,000) just ain’t getting it under Brent Key. He’s an explosive player though, so you could consider him in tournaments thanks to that plus his higher price tag. I wouldn’t want too much of him though.
Injury Notes – N/A
Louisville vs Pitt
- Point Spread: Louisville -4.5
- Total: 57.5
Top Play(s) – Isaac Brown ($7,700) and Desmond Reid ($7,300) are elite running back options battling injury, but I expect both to play on Saturday. Brown is the big play dynamic threat that we should could have a little more volume while Reid really does his damage with volume and ability to make a big play in the passing game. No need to overthink this. If both are healthy then both are very much in play on Saturday.
Fade – I don’t care how cheap Miller Moss ($5,700) is this weekend. He’s a fade thanks to his inability to do much of anything in the run game. This offense hasn’t hit it’s full Brohm stride and thus we’re not seeing much of any value from Moss.
Bargain Bin – Obviously, if we get Reid or Brown out for this one then their backups present great value. But, let’s talk about a realistic option here. Raphael Williams Jr. ($4,800) has really stepped up to be the top receiver for Eli Holstein catching 3 touchdowns in his past two games. He leads the team with an 18.7% target share seeing 8 and 9 targets in those two contests. Louisville has been stout against the pass, but they also have only played James Madison in terms of adequate opponents.
Pivot Play – Eli Holstein ($7,500) isn’t really a big pivot, but I do think in the grand scheme of the slate will be overlooked. We’re starting to see the volume uptick with 37 attempts in the week 3 loss to West Virginia. He struggled to stay upright though with his 14 rushing attempts for -27 yards. It wouldn’t surprise me one bit if he bounced back and had 3+ passing touchdowns in this one.
Injury Notes – Desmond Reid (Q), Isaac Brown (Q), Duke Watson (Q)
USC vs Illinois
- Point Spread: USC -6.5
- Total: 59.5
Top Play(s) – Makai Lemon ($7,300) has been a surprising development not because of talent but because of usage. USC is notorious for it’s desire to spread the ball around to many receivers but not this year. Sure, Ja’Kobi Lane missed last game, but Lemon has seen 8 targets in 3 of 4 games and owns a 28% target rate that feels very real. Lemon has outtargeted Lane 22 to 13 in games they’ve both played.
Fade – You should fade Illinois running backs at all costs in this matchup. Kaden Feagin ($5,700) and Aidan Laughery ($4,700) are going to share the rock too much and the game script points to Illinois needing to lean on the passing game especially if they “show up” like they did against Indiana. Feagin is a zero if they do decide to throw the ball more which makes him unplayable in my eyes.
Bargain Bin – It’s not super cheap but Waymond Jordan ($6,400) is a huge bargain to me. I don’t care Mike. When you get a running back on a high scoring offense that has volume upside (16+ attempts in 3 straight games) and the frame to find the end zone consistently then he counts. USC’s implied team total sits in the low 30s, and they are nearly a touchdown favorite. This plays out very well for Jordan as the RB1.
If you’d like to get weird then Jaden Richardson ($3,000) fits that true mold of bargain bin. You’d need Lane to be out, but Richardson did run the most routes for any USC receiver not named Lemon in the win over Michigan State.
Pivot Play – I did say that Illinois may be forced to throw the ball a ton in this matchup, so Luke Altmyer ($6,200) could be in play. He’s not much of a runner unfortunately, but he had success early in the season at Duke. Could he replicate that performance in a home bounce back game?
Injury Notes – Ja’Kobi Lane (Q), Aidan Laughery (P), Hank Beatty (P)
Auburn at Texas A&M
- Point Spread: Texas A&M -6.5
- Total: 52.5
Top Play(s) – Mario Craver ($5,200) certainly has popped for the Aggies hasn’t he? He’s hit 100+ yards in all 3 games in 2025 and is coming off his best game of the year with a 207 yard performance at Notre Dame in week 3. Like with USC receivers, there was concern that the WR1 wouldn’t see that many targets. Well, that has proven to be wrong with Craver’s 26.4% target rate this season. Auburn has been carved up by slot receivers with Isaiah Sategna, Michael Trigg, and Kole Wilson each having huge games against the Tigers in 2025.
Fade – How could you confidently roll out an Auburn running back right now? Damari Alston ($5,100) is working his way back from injury and only ran for 3.6ypc in the loss against Oklahoma. Jeremiah Cobb ($5,000) had some big games while Alston was hurt but still only managed 6 attempts last week. The issue here is that Jackson Arnold swallows up too much rushing usage for Alston and Cobb to thrive. And if you were to want to take a chance on them it wouldn’t be at the price tags they have this weekend.
Bargain Bin – N/A
Pivot Play – Le’Veon Moss ($5,400) surprised us all with his 62.5% rushing usage in the win over Notre Dame. He was eased back into his RB1 role and came out with a bang in that game. While his performance wasn’t the best (4.1ypc), he did find the end zone 3 times. Most people are going to gravitate to Marcel Reed and Mario Craver and with good reason. Moss could easily continue to be the guy they lean on around the goalline though making him extremely valuable.
Injury Notes – Durrell Robinson (OUT)
LSU vs Ole Miss
- Point Spread: Ole Miss -1.5
- Total: 54.5
Top Play(s) – You can’t possibly go back to Austin Simmons right? Trinidad Chambliss ($7,700) has been incredible since filling in for Simmons post-injury. He’s everything we’ve ever wanted in a CFF quarterback. He runs (29 attempts in two games), he runs very well (174 rushing yards), and he can sling it (11 YPA in both games)! Chambliss is a threat to hit the rushing and passing bonus weekly. Now, the matchup against LSU isn’t the most ideal. Ole Miss’ implied team total sits at 27, so Vegas agrees. LSU’s “worst” performance against the pass this year was against Clemson when they allowed 6.1 YPA and 230 total passing yards. How much does that matter though after what we’ve seen from Clemson?
If you do believe that Ole Miss will be just fine at home against the LSU defense then Kewan Lacy ($6,700) is very much in play. Sure, we all wish he’d be more efficient (2.6 and 3.8ypc the past two games), but he’s found the end zone 7 times so far this season. He’s even adding some pass game usage with Chambliss at quarterback, catching 7 passes in his two starts. Lacy is a near lock for 20 opportunities making him a great option at this price.
Fade – Can I say LSU as a whole? The Tigers have scored 17, 20, and 23 points against FBS opponents this season. They’re not exactly humming right now. Garrett Nussmeier ($8,800) certainly can’t be trusted right now. He threw for 3 touchdowns, 273 yards, and even added a rushing touchdown and yet his production technically didn’t hit 30 fantasy points. Using him at this price and expecting value to be hit is a tall task this weekend.
Bargain Bin – The cost friendly options aren’t the best here, but there are tournament worthy plays to be had. Dae’Quan Wright ($3,500) is averaging 26 yards per catch in 2025 but isn’t getting the volume we need to make him worth it. Can we see an uptick in this close battle? Bauer Sharp ($3,100) was Nussmeier’s top target in the win last week, but Trey’Dez Green is likely to return from injury this week. Does Caden Durham miss the game due to an ankle sprain? If so, Ju’Juan Johnson ($3,600) becomes a really great cheap option. He ran for 2 touchdowns in last week’s win and caught 5 passes in week one, showing off some versatility.
Pivot Play – Harrison Wallace III ($5,000) did absolutely nothing last week against Tulane but had a great game the week before against Arkansas. It amy surprise you to know that even though he caught just 1 pass against Tulane, he led the team with 6 targets. Wallace appears to be the top target, so buying the “dip” feels like a really great pivot.
Injury Notes – Austin Simmons (Q), Caden Durham (Q), Trey’Dez Green (P)
Baylor vs Oklahoma State
- Point Spread: Baylor -20.5
- Total: 57.5
Top Play(s) – Bryson Washington ($9,100) is a volume monster, consistently seeing high usage rates for the Bears. He’s hit 100+ rushing yards in 3 straight games and considering how Dominic Richardson for Tulsa just ran for 146 yards against the Cowboys, I don’t know how Washington doesn’t make it 4 in a row. There could be slight concern due to the nearly 3-touchdown spread, so do tread carefully with how much you roll out this weekend.
Fade – The Cowboys. All of them. Ok, maybe not Rodney Fields Jr. but the rest of them got to go. Their implied team total is just 19 and they’re coming off a game where they scored 12 at home to Tulsa. Why would you do this to yourself?
Bargain Bin – The lone Cowboys to target is Rodney Fields Jr. ($4,000) and even then I’m not sure I’m excited about this one. Rolling out a Fields after Gundy being fired (could be good? Could be bad?) as a 3-touchdown underdog isn’t great process. The price tag is right though, so I wouldn’t blame anyone for wanting to dip their toes in this pool. It’s worth noting that Baylor has been very stout against the run allowing just 3.7 and 3.73ypc against SMU and Arizona State this season.
Pivot Play – Rolling out a tight end priced at $5,500 is pretty bad process as well, but maybe that’s what makes Michael Trigg an interesting play in this matchup. He’s the top target guy for the Bears and is coming off a two touchdown performance. Josh Cameron ($6,300) is priced pretty aggressively for his lack of production in 2025, but look no further than that week 2 bounce back game where he went for over 38 fantasy points as to why he should be in consideration. If you look at the past two games (which doesn’t include week 2), Cameron leads the team with 13 targets to Trigg’s 10.
Injury Notes – Kalib Hicks (Q)
Utah vs West Virginia
- Point Spread: Utah -13.5
- Total: 47.5
Top Play(s) – As you’ll read below, I believe Devon Dampier is going to be limited by the coaching staff. That doesn’t mean he won’t throw the football though. Ryan Davis ($4,500) should still be the top target for him. Can he make it 3 straight games of 12 targets? The spread in this one is 11 points (doesn’t that feel low?), so we should see a competitive enough game where the passing game is still utilized quite often. Davis has just a 6.9YPT in 2025, but he makes up for it with his heavy volume (27.3% target share).
Fade – Devon Dampier ($9,600) is priced way too high and is battling a lower body injury and so for that reason I’m out. Doesn’t this feel like the type of game that Utah let’s their running back room dominate, giving Dampier the quiet week off? Even when healthy, Dampier isn’t reaching value in 2025 at this price with his fantasy points high being 30.94.
Bargain Bin – Davis is really the best bargain in this game, but if you must require another one then Dallen Bentley ($3,600) fits the mold as well. Utah loves utilizing tight ends and we’re seeing that with his second best 18% target share this season. West Virginia’s pass defense looked good against Kansas, but they got beat up pretty bad against Ohio and Pitt the two weeks prior.
Pivot Play – As stated earlier, I think this is a game where the running backs are heavily involved. We don’t love RBBCs in the CFF community, but this may be the rare situation where both Wayshawn Parker ($6,800) and Naquari Rogers ($6,000) hit big. The game script certainly points towards good run game usage considering that they’re double digit favorites.
If we get news that Jaylen Henderson ($6,100) is going to get the start against Utah then that interests me. I don’t believe we’ll get that though. His rushing ability was showcased in the loss to Kansas last week with 79 yards and a touchdown on the ground on 7 attempts.
Injury Notes – Devon Dampier (P), Tye Edwards (D), Cyncir Bowers (Q), Jahiem White (OUT)
Iowa vs Indiana
- Point Spread: Indiana -7.5
- Total: 48.5
Top Play(s) – Fernando Mendoza ($6,800) has been lights out for the Hoosiers even with the majority of his games being low volume. As we know by now though, Curt Cignetti is a high efficiency machine in the passing game. Mendoza has 14 passing touchdowns in the past 3 games with 5 of those coming last weekend against Illinois. I don’t love targeting Iowa, but this Hawkeyes defense did just give up 8.3YPA and 330 passing yards to Rutgers and the Greek Rifle. Why can’t Mendoza do something similar?
Kamari Moulton ($6,200) may have gotten his job back thanks to injuries in the running back room. While Moulton got healthy, Xavier Williams and Jaziun Patterson are now hurt. Patterson looked like the top guy then tweaked something and has since been ruled out for this game. This could be a great opportunity for Moulton if Williams is also out for this game.
Fade – I want nothing to do with the Indiana running back room right now. Roman Hemby ($5,000), Kaelon Black ($4,800), and Khobie Martin ($3,800) form a really interesting group when the matchup is Indiana State or Kennessaw State, but I worry about what happens when the usage is split up and the matchup is Iowa. The Hawkeyes has been not surprisingly very stout against the run in 2025, allowing just 2.25ypc and no more than 104 rushing yards in a game.
Bargain Bin – Elijah Sarratt ($5,900) and Omar Cooper Jr. ($5,500) are priced too early for what this passing attack is. Yes, it’ll be difficult to “get there” on the lower volume we’ve seen from Indiana this season, but I expect that attempt number to go up. Sarratt is coming off his second multi-touchdown game of the season while Cooper just had 4 touchdowns two games ago.
Pivot Play – Don’t let Mark Gronowski ($6,500) get hot y’all. So what if Albany made him nervous week one. It’s week 5 and he’s cooking! He has a rushing touchdown in every game this season which makes me think that is a lock to happen again this weekend with the running back room being dinged up like it is. Gronowski is not Colton Joseph (ODU QB), but what if he’s like 50% of him? Joseph ran for 179 yards and 2 touchdowns on 10 attempts in week one against Indiana.
Injury Notes – Xavier Williams (Q), Jaziun Patterson (P), Lee Beebe Jr. (OUT)
Ohio State vs Washington
- Point Spread: Ohio State -8.5
- Total: 51.5
Top Play(s) – In the offseason, I was concerned about Jonah Coleman’s ($6,900) usage and how the talented room would impact his upside. Well, I’m willing to admit I overthought that one. In my defense, the usage was the usage. Coleman has taken it to another level with 10 total touchdowns in 3 games, hitting the 100+ yard bonus in every game as well. Ohio State is not a great matchup but at this price I think you have to lean on your studs and consider him a great value. I do like the fact that this is a home game for the Huskies.
Jeremiah Smith ($9,000) is always worth of a top play mention, and this week is no different. He’s coming off back to back 100+ yard performances and has 4 touchdowns in those two games. This offense has to know they go as he goes, so I believe his near 35% target rate is close to sustainable. Carnell Tate is a very good WR2, but he’s no Smith. If Ohio State wants to win this one then they’ll have to get production out of him.
Fade – Both James Peoples ($5,600) and CJ Donaldson ($5,800) are not worthy of utilizing this weekend with how they’ve performed. They’re seeing split carries and are being outdone by a freshman, albeit Bo Jackson has performed when the games aren’t so close. Donaldson saw 19 carries against Texas, so I’d be more open to him but Peoples hasn’t had an 11 attempt game in 2025. That’s not what you want out of guys this expensive.
Bargain Bin – Bo Jackson ($3,100) shockingly leads Ohio State in rushing, but will he start to get a bigger role with conference play kicking off? James Peoples and CJ Donaldson have been weak (see above), so why not give Jackson a try? This is a very speculative play, but sooner or later we’re going to see this shift.
Pivot Play – Targeting the Ohio State secondary with a more “run-first” quarterback under center feels a little risky, but Denzel Boston ($7,500) has proven to have a great connection with his quarterback, Demond Williams. The near 32% target share certainly helps from a matchup standpoint. Williams’ ability to make plays out of nothing and extend the play long enough to let his guys get open could be very beneficial in a tough matchup like this one.
Injury Notes – Rashid Williams (OUT)
Tennessee vs Mississippi State
- Point Spread: Tennessee -7.5
- Total: 62.5
Top Play(s) – Desean Bishop ($5,300) may be a part of an RBBC, but he saw the lion’s share of usage against Georgia, their biggest game of the year so far. Mississippi State poses as a great matchup for this offense and Bishop, if he nears 50% usage again, could have a huge game. He provides nearly nothing in the passing game, so his value is tied directly to rushing usage plus potential touchdown equity. Good thing Vegas has an implied team total of nearly 35 for the Vols in this one.
Blake Shapen ($6,600) has done quite well for himself in his final season of college football. He wasn’t leaned upon much in his past two contests due to game script and matchup, but he was very effective in their biggest game of the season, Arizona State week two. Shapen has shown to have a little bit of rushing potential with 51 yards last weekend against Northern Illinois, but this Tennessee poses a much different threat. Consider Shapen a very good mid-priced option alongside previously mentioned guys above.
Fade – Mississippi State coaches have said they like the depth of their running back room, making Davon Booth ($4,700), Fluff Bothwell ($4,900), and Xavier Gayten ($3,000) all questionable options. We’ve seen sporadic usage for the top two which should give us all pause in this matchup against Tennessee, even if the Bulldogs have an implied team total of 27.
Bargain Bin – If Vegas is right then Mississippi State has to have someone be productive. I like the passing game here enough to consider Anthony Evans III ($4,900) and Brenen Thompson ($4,500) playable options Saturday. Evans leads the team with a 25% target share, Thompson is right behind him at 23%. They’re a very clear 1-2 punch. We should see great volume for them alongside a game script that should be pass friendly.
Pivot Play – I’m not sure it’s much of a pivot, but the Tennessee passing game should be focused on in some capacity. Chris Brazzell II ($5,800) is back to his Tulane self with 6 touchdowns and 426 receiving yards on the season. Braylon Stayley ($5,100) has come out of nowhere to be a very good WR2 option and isn’t that far off from Brazzell in terms of usage, just 2% lower than him in terms of target share. The real pivot here would be Mike Matthews ($5,600) who is priced as the WR2 but is performing like their WR3.
Injury Notes – N/A
