Middle Tennessee vs. Western Kentucky
Point-Spread: WKU -5.5
O/U Total: 59.5
Implied Score: WKU 31.5 – MTSU 28
Weather: 75 degrees / 65% rain / 6 mph winds
Middle Tennessee:
Top Play(s) – WR Elijah Metcalf ($4,000) Metcalf gets the nod here from a production per dollar standpoint, now leading the Blue Raiders with 22 receptions on 26 targets – 12 more targets than the next closest receiver on the team. Three different receivers have already scored 18 fantasy points or more against Western Kentucky this season.
Fade – DJ England-Chisolm ($5,700) Not a complete fade in that Middle Tennessee doesn’t have a true alpha at receiver and will rotate 5-6 wideouts in and out of the lineup throughout the game. That said, DJE saw his snaps decrease last week against Colorado State with some players back from injury and was targeted just once. Will look to salary save with some other MTSU receiving options.
Bargain Bin – WR Transfers. North Carolina transfer Justin Olson and Georgia Tech transfer Kalani Norris both played over 50% of the team’s snaps last week against CSU. True rotations at their starting spots, though, as they share playing time with Javonte Sherman and England-Chisolm.
Pivot Play – QB Nicholas Vattiato ($8,400) Vattiato is the second best QB option on the slate, largely due to his rushing abilities, hitting double digit carries in half of his game played this season. Middle Tennessee is also 28th nationally in pass play percentage, throwing the ball over 55% of the time. Western Kentucky doesn’t pose much of a threat defensively, allowing 25.5 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season and are 87th in pass D success rate.
Best of the Rest – RB Frank Peasant ($5,400) After missing the Murray State contest in Week 3 to injury, Peasant stepped back into the starting role, carrying the ball 11 times for minimal yardage against a bad Colorado State defense. MTSU is 107th in rush play success rate this season so Peasant is not a priority option. He’ll split carries with NIU transfer RB Jaiden Credle ($4,800) who is the better pure runner of the two. Peasant’s value can come from the passing game, though, as we saw at times last season, including a 8-107-2 performance on 11 targets late in the year. WR Holden Willis ($4,600) came back last week from injury and was second on the team with 9-118-1 on 10 targets. He’s a hybrid WR/TE slot option that MTSU has found success with in the past. I believe Willis shares the position with WR Jeremy Tate ($5,200) who does not appear to have played against Colorado State.
Injury Notes – Frank Peasant is not on the game week depth chart, but that was the case last week and he wound up playing. College Football, folks.
Western Kentucky:
Top Play(s) – QB Austin Reed ($8,800) and Malachi Corley ($6,700) I’ve been told you’re never supposed to have 100% exposure on a player if entering multiple lineups. I disagree with that notion for this slate with the Reed / Corley combo. Middle Tennessee allows the third most fantasy points in the country to opposing quarterbacks. Four receivers have already scored 15 fantasy points or more on the Blue Raiders’ secondary this season.
Fade – RBs. Tougher to find true fades on a three-game slate featuring only G5 schools, but I think we’re safe in ignoring the WKU running back position. The Hilltoppers are 130th nationally in rush play percentage and haven’t been good when they even attempt to keep the ball on the ground, averaging just 3.59 YPC.
Bargain Bin – WR Craig Burt Jr. ($3,300) A 6-foot-4 outside receiver averaging just 6.5 yards per catch – not great. That said, Burt Jr. plays a lot of snaps in an Air Raid offense and he’s cheap. Downgraded if Dalvin Smith plays.
Pivot Play – WR KD Hutchinson ($3,400) This play is dependent on the status of senior receiver Blue Smith who did not play against Troy. Hutchinson, primarily a slot receiver by trade, started in place of Blue last week, finishing with 3-16-0 on four targets. He’s playing out of position on the outside, and slot receivers are the preference in this offense, so our interest here is minimal.
Best of the Rest – WR Easton Messer ($5,600) Is Messer the heir apparent to Corley in the slot when he eventually departs for the NFL? Last two performances against G5 defenses, Messer has combined for over 200 receiving yards on 16 targets with a pair of touchdowns. He’s downgraded slightly if Dalvin Smith ends up playing, but not much. Stacking Reed, Corley and Messer is a viable option, obviously, given how frequently WKU throws the football.
Injury Notes – WR Dalvin Smith ($5,300) Smith did not play last week against Troy after suffering an injury against Houston Baptist in Week 2. Sounded like the injury two weeks ago wasn’t that serious as a report stated Smith was trying to come back in the game in the second half. Apparently, it was serious enough, though, to miss the last two contests. He’s a big enough name to where I think we’ll get some confirmation before game time. RB Markese Stepp ($5,300) was dressed but did not play against Troy.
Temple vs. Tulsa
Point-Spread: Tuls -3.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Implied Score: Tuls 29 – Temp 25.5
Weather: 83 degrees / 0% rain / 10 mph winds
Temple:
Top Play(s) – WR Amad Anderson ($5,400) Anderson was the beneficiary of Dante Wright not playing last week, finishing with 117 receiving yards and 10 receptions on 14 targets – all of which were a season-high. More value on DK vs. FanDuel because of the full-point PPR scoring settings. Wide receivers (combined) are averaging 75 fantasy points A GAME so far against this Tulsa secondary. That tends to happen when facing Oklahoma and Washington in the first month, but Temple is good enough throwing the ball to take advantage of this pass defense.
Fade – RB Edward Saydee ($4,100) Despite a solid season from Saydee in 2022, this coaching staff emphasized in the offseason that every starting position was still up for grabs. That held true in the backfield as Saydee fell to third on the depth chart. Temple rarely runs the football as it is, so we’re not interested in their third-string RB.
Bargain Bin – WR Zae Baines ($3,600) Baines played more offensive snaps than any other skill position player last week for Temple and was targeted nine times with five receptions. I’d also consider TE David Martin-Robinson ($3,900) again this week facing a lesser defense. Hasn’t had nearly the impact we anticipated entering 2023 but is still playing over 80% of offensive snaps. 15 of his 16 targets came in the first two weeks, though.
Pivot Play – QB E.J. Warner ($5,800) Fair to call this a sophomore slump yet? I would say a bit early given Warner’s struggles this season have come against two good defenses in Miami and Rutgers. We’ll wait to make that determination after seeing him in conference play. And this is a prime opportunity to bounce back against a Tulsa secondary that is 130th in pass D success rate. Temple is No. 1 in the country in pass play percentage.
Best of the Rest – RB Joquez Smith ($5,100) Ran for just four yards last week against Miami, but we’re throwing that performance out the window. Against a more comparable defense the week prior vs. Norfolk State, Smith took over the RB1 job, rushing for 142 yards on 15 attempts. MTSU has been far worse against the pass vs. the run, allowing just 10 FPPG to opposing RB1s and 76th in rush D success rate. Should have some exposure to Smith, but not overboard.
Injury Notes – WR Dante Wright ($5,500) The former Colorado State transfer was back at practice on Monday, signaling to us he’s likely to play on Thursday. Was the team’s leading target-getter after Week 3. Pairing Wright and Anderson in the same lineup is an option.
Tulsa:
Top Play(s) – RB Anthony Watkins ($6,100) We thought this RB room would be messy coming into the season and it’s been exactly that. Watkins appears to be the hot hand of late after starting the season as the third stringer, as his rushing attempts have increased with every passing week. The Owls are allowing 39.3 FPPG to opposing backfields – 7th most in the country – and are 98th in rush D success rate.
Fade – RB Jordan Ford ($6,000) See above. Conversely, Ford’s attempts have declined each week after rushing for 100+ in the opener. We might be at the point where RB Bill Jackson ($3,700) or RB Tahj Gary ($3,200) may have surpassed him on the depth chart (admittedly doing some box score scouting with that proclamation). We’ll see four running backs carry the ball on Thursday. Gary sits second on the team’s game week depth chart.
Bargain Bin – QB Cardell Williams ($6,900) Tulsa doesn’t throw very often, hasn’t been effective when they do, and Williams doesn’t run much. Temple also ranks 22nd in pass D success rate, so this is a very good G5 secondary based on the numbers. Williams probably sits 5th among QB options on this slate for me.
Pivot Play – WR Marquis Shoulders ($6,300) Team leader in targets, routes run, and touchdowns (3), though was shut out last week in a dismal offensive showing (on both sides) against Northern Illinois.
Best of the Rest – WR Kamdyn Benjamin ($3,500) and Devan Williams ($4,900) With Malachai Jones not playing, and Braylin Presley seemingly fallen out of favor, the WR rotation for Tulsa has tightened with Shoulders, Benjamin and Williams playing over 64% of the offensive snaps last week against NIU. No other receiver was on the field for more than seven offensive plays.
Injury Notes – QB Braylon Braxton ($8,000) Braxton remains limited in practice as he works his way back from an ankle injury suffered in Week 1. The Tulsa passing game hasn’t been good enough to warrant even the solidified starting quarterback, much less one that is a game-time decision. WR Malachai Jones ($4,500) has yet to play this season and remains listed third on the depth chart. He was expected to be the team’s WR1 entering 2023.
Jacksonville State vs. Sam Houston State
Point-Spread: JSU -5
O/U Total: 36.5
Implied Score: JSU 21 – SHSU 16
Weather: 93 degrees / 7% rain / 6 mph winds
Jacksonville State:
Top Play(s) – RB Malik Jackson ($5,900) We have more options at quarterback on the slate than running backs, so Jackson gets the nod as our priority on Jacksonville State. The former Louisiana-Monroe transfer had his best game of the season last week with 127 yards on 21 carries where no other running back had more than 9 attempts. Sam Houston State just allowed a true freshman to rush for 105 yards and three scores last Saturday in his first start. Jackson also leads the team with 15 targets.
Fade – WR Sterling Galban ($6,400) Makes zero sense why Galban is priced this highly. Fifth on the team in targets (7) for a Jacksonville State team that runs the ball 67% of the time – fourth most in all of college football. Easy fade.
Bargain Bin – RB Reggion Bennett ($3,000) Was going to put a receiver here, but Jacksonville State doesn’t throw the ball enough to invest much, if anything, in them. Assuming this game could play out like the Eastern Michigan matchup a week ago, Bennett seems to be second in line at running back, rushing for 42 yards on nine attempts.
Pivot Play – QB Logan Smothers ($7,100) I wouldn’t put it past Rich Rod to use two quarterbacks in a game again this season, but Smothers has seemingly locked down the QB1 job, scoring 28 fantasy points in a 21-0 win over Eastern Michigan last weekend. Sam Houston State is similarly inept to EMU offensively, so I don’t anticipate we see Smothers put the ball in the air much on Thursday. But he is more than capable of getting things done on the ground where the QB run game is a staple of the Rich Rod offense. Both Smothers and Zion Webb were listed as starters last week, yet Webb did not see the field.
Best of the Rest – WR Quinton Lane ($5,800) Lane has double the amount of receptions as the next closest Jacksonville State receiver, while also second on the team with 14 targets. Don’t expect more than 25 passes from Jacksonville State on Thursday, so Lane will have to make something happen with the limited targets he’ll likely receive.
Injury Notes – n/a
Sam Houston State:
Sam Houston scored their first touchdown OF THE SEASON last week against Houston and are now averaging 3.3 points per game. Maybe we shouldn’t consider adding these teams to the FBS level every time they apply for acceptance? The Bearkats are projected to double their seasonal output this week with an implied team total of 15 points so we should take a look for at least one option to roster. Fade the QB situation entirely. Utah State transfer RB John Gentry ($4,200) will start at running back with former starter Zack Hrbacek ($4,900) seen on crutches last week. We’re not interested in running backs from a team averaging 2.7 YPC but Gentry did catch five passes on five targets against Houston. receiver, junior Ife Adeyi ($5,900) lead the team with 12 targets, though he also suffered an injury last week. A tweet suggests he was seen on the medical bike on the sidelines, so hopefully not too serious of an injury to keep him out. WR Noah Smith ($4,200) is second on the team with 11 targets.
