Charlotte @ Florida International
Point-Spread: Char -3.5
O/U Total: 60
Weather: 81 degrees / 16% rain / 5 mph winds
Charlotte:
Time to fire up Chris Reynolds in every lineup, DFS or season-long, this week against an FIU defense that is allowing the fourth-most fantasy points (34.9) to opposing QBs in the country, fresh off their worst performance of the year. After a dismal outing at Georgia State, Reynolds rebounded with five total touchdowns against Middle Tennessee in Week 4. Reynolds showed well last week at Illinois, completing 74 percent of his throws for 191 yards and two touchdowns, while adding 26 rushing yards on 12 attempts.
Jekyll and Hyde for the Charlotte running game that ranks fourth in C-USA at 174 yards per game, but has averaged under four yards a carry in three of the five games played. Below average along the offensive line where the 49ers are 87th in Stuff Rate and 69th in Line Yards, along with 83rd overall in Rush Play Success Rate. Who’s the good one between Jekyll and Hyde because we could see that this week from Charlotte, facing an FIU run defense that is 110th in Success Rate Allowed on the ground. Our issue is deciding which player to roster between Shadrick Byrd and Calvin Camp as it’s been a near-even split in carries between the two for the last three games. Bryd holds the advantage between the two as a receiver with more than double the targets (9) and receptions (8).
Another centralized target tree with receivers Victor Tucker and Grant Dubose accounting for 51 percent of the share. We know of Tucker who leads the team in receptions (23) and has at least five targets in every game this season. But its continuing to look worse and worse that I had no idea who Dubose was before the season began. Over half of Dubose’s total targets have come in the last two games, and is the team leader with four receiving TDs. WR3 Elijah Spencer has an aDOT of 16.8 – higher than Tucker and Dubose – and eight of his 14 total targets have come in the last two games. Spencer has a TD in each of the last three weeks. Tight end Taylor Thompson is third on the team in targets (17), and FIU has already allowed three double-digit point performances from opposing tight ends this season.
Florida International:
Does this Florida International season start to spiral now that rumors are out there that Butch Davis may be retiring at the end of the season? If it hasn’t spiraled already that is, coming off a 58-21 loss to Florida Atlantic where the Panthers gave up 704 yards of total offense. D’Vonte Price remains the centerpiece of the FIU offense with 441 rushing yards (5.41 YPC) and six touchdowns, hitting double-digit fantasy points in every game this season. Don’t be deceived, though, by the 5.41 YPC average as its been a struggle for Price the last three weeks, averaging under four yards a carry against some mediocre rush defenses. Offensive line deserves much of the blame as FIU ranks 117th in Line Yards, 56th in Stuff Rate and 129th in Second Level Yards. As an entire offensive the Panthers are just 123rd in Points Per Opportunity this season. Although, if there is a cure to an ailing run game, Charlotte might be it. The 49ers are 129th in the nation, fresh off allowing 336 yards to Chase Brown and the Illini. Depth chart this week indicates Shaun Peterson Jr. would be next man up behind Price.
First time in my CFF career that I’d advocate Max Bortenschlager as a possible option at QB. The super senior struggled last week with a 43 percent completion rate at FIU, but has been solid for the most part in 2021, averaging 274 passing yards per game, 9.5 yards per attempt with 10 touchdowns. Charlotte’s 22nd ranked pass defense has fallen off the last two weeks, allowing six TD passes and a 71 percent combined completion rate to Chase Cunningham and Brandon Peters. The 49ers are allowing 27 FPPG to opposing QB1s.
Thought maybe we would get an underpriced Tyrese Chambers given he’s not a household name in most circles, but the DK algorithm got this one correct as the former JUCO transfer has emerged as the team’s WR1 with a touchdown now in four of the five games played. Chambers is a major reason for Bortenschlager’s 9.5 YPA with an aDOT of 21.8 and has already had eight receptions of 25 yards or more. FIU’s WR1 in 2019, Shemar Thornton, finally seems to be healthy after playing the last two weeks, though he has just five catches on 13 targets. South Florida transfer Randall St. Felix saw the third most snaps behind Chambers/Thornton last week, also a season-high for him, and had four catches on five targets. Bryce Singleton has been the most consistent performer outside of Chambers, accounting for 19 percent of the target share (second on team) with 20 receptions. Tight end Rivaldo Fairweather has played the third-most snaps of any FIU skill position player this season and 14 of his 15 targets have come in the last three games played.
Temple @ Cincinnati
Point-Spread: Cin -29
O/U Total: 54
Weather: 68 degrees / 10% rain / 2 mph winds
Temple:
Still too early to tout myself on promoting D’Wan Mathis this offseason but we’ve seen a renaissance the last two weeks, completing 70 percent of his passes vs. Wagner and Memphis with five passing TDs and zero interceptions. Biggest surprise, particularly in a Rod Carey scheme that loves to involve their QBs in the run game, is that Mathis only has seven carries the last two weeks. It was a career-highs all around for the former Georgia transfer against the Tigers last week with 322 yards and 35 completions with three passing scores. Bodes well for the remainder of the season, but I don’t think we can reasonably play Mathis this week against a Cincinnati secondary that ranks 21st in the country. The Bearcats also rank 9th in the country in FPPG allowed to opposing QB1s this season (13.8). Cincinnati has been equally as good on the ground, allowing just 3.39 yards per carry, and I truthfully don’t know who will be the top rusher for Temple in a given week between Edward Saydee, Tayvon Ruley and Ra’von Bonner. Saydee was the choice against Memphis with 62 yards on 12 carries, but the Owls have had four different leading rushers in a week already this season. In competitive matchups, Saydee does seem to be the preferred option, but we probably aren’t rolling out anyone here.
Injuries at wide receiver with both Jadan Blue and Randle Jones questionable for this week. Jose Barbon has emerged as the top pass-catcher in their absence with 21 receptions for 280 yards and a TD, including back-to-back games with 11 targets. Blue returning would not affect Barbon, it would be Jones as they play in the same receiver alignment at LWR. 6-foot-5 sophomore Jordan Smith had a season-high 6-55-0 on seven targets vs. Memphis. Purdue transfer Amad Anderson has seen more involvement in the offense the last two weeks with 11 targets. Anderson had 3-108-1 against the Tigers. De’Von Fox and Kadas Reams are rotational receivers.
Cincinnati:
Let-down spot after last week’s massive win at Notre Dame? Looking back at Cincy’s blowouts so far this year in Week 1 and 2, Desmond Ridder had his best passing days of the year, completing 70 percent of his passes with six touchdowns. As suspected, the Cincy staff did not put Ridder in harm’s way with just 10 carries in two games, where he had 10 in each of the last two weeks. With the Bearcats being a 29-point favorite, do we see less of Ridder tucking and running? Temple’s previously ranked No. 1 pass defense in the country was a façade as expected, giving up over 300 yards last week to a true freshman QB.
The Owls are 92nd against the run this season, though are giving up under four yards a carry as a team and allowing just a little over 13 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season with no running back topping 20 fantasy points to date. Jerome Ford breakout? Still dominating the rushing volume in the Cincy backfield with 79 percent of the share with a team-high six touchdowns, but has struggled in recent weeks with the competition levels ramped up a notch, averaging less than four yards a carry. The offensive line has not been as good as it was a year ago, ranking 58th in Line Yards and 112th in Stuff Rate. Temple is 29th in Stuff Rate, FWIW.
Alec Pierce, for me personally, fits in the same category as CJ Verdell and Marvin Mims as players I’ve never predicted correctly in DFS. When healthy, the clear WR1 for the Bearcats and now has topped 19 fantasy points in back-to-back weeks, something he didn’t do once a year ago. If this game gets out of hand, you run the risk of Ridder spreading the ball around as he did in the first few games of the season, though. Michael Young Jr. is the pivot off Pierce as the WR2 with 12 receptions on 18 targets, 11 of which have come the last two games. Tre Tucker, Tyler Scott and Jadon Thompson are rotational receivers, with Scott seeing a significant advantage in snaps over the other two. Leonard Taylor and Josh Whyle combined for nine targets vs. Notre Dame with Taylor having a career day with 4-70-1.
Stanford @ Arizona State
Point-Spread: Az St -13
O/U Total: 51.5
Weather: 80 degrees / 1% rain / 6 mph winds
Stanford:
Austin Jones was back in the lineup last week for Stanford, but was relegated to backup duties with Nathaniel Peat getting the start, rushing for 78 yards on 15 carries vs. Oregon. It does appear as though the Stanford running game is rounding into form as the year goes along, averaging over four yards a carry in each of the last three games, but the advanced stats still hate this offensive line which is 99th or lower in Line Yards, Stuff Rate, Power Success and Rush Play Success Rate. Arizona State is trending the other direction as a run defense, allowing a season-high 200 yards to UCLA last week, but are still giving up under four yards a carry on the year. Ranked 78th in Defensive Rush Play Success Rate. Peat > Jones.
QB Tanner McKee continued his shining play this season against Oregon last week, throwing for 230 yards and three touchdowns, and still hasn’t turned the ball over this season. Has topped 22 fantasy points in four of the five games played this season. Arizona State is allowing 18.1 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season and are 11th in the country in Defensive Pass Play Success Rate so this will be a challenge for McKee, but he’s passed every test to date thus far.
Michael Wilson still hasn’t returned to the lineup and Brycen Tremayne is already announced out this week so we are really down to three primary pass-catchers to focus on with Elijah Higgins, John Humphreys and tight end Ben Yurosek. The 6-foot-3 Higgins has started all year but really emerged the last two weeks with 11 receptions on 17 targets. Three TDs in the last four games. Humphreys is another tree at 6-foot-5 and has seen an uptick in targets and snaps the last two games with 14 of his 21 targets. He “benefits” the most with Tremayne out. Arizona State is allowing just 4.0 FPPG to opposing TE1s on the season, but struggled to contain Greg Dulcich and Isaac Rex who scored 22 and 15 fantasy points, respectively.
Arizona State:
From a fantasy standpoint, Jayden Daniels’ play has picked up the last two weeks, averaging 26 points against Colorado and UCLA. Daniels faces a pedestrian Stanford pass defense that is allowing 23.1 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season, and allowed four rushing TDs combined to both Anthony Brown and DTR already. The Cardinal are 55th in Defensive Pass Play Success Rate. Stanford is substantially worse at defending the run this season, ranking 127th in Rush Play Success rate and still possess the worst rush defense in the Pac-12, allowing over 212 yards per game. The Cardinal weren’t any better last week, allowing 228 yards and three scores on the ground to Oregon. Arizona State is throwing the ball far more in 2021 (42.8%), but this is still a run-first offense behind the duo of Rachaad White and Chip Trayanum who were finally on the field at the same time, for the first time, in weeks against UCLA. This game was past my bedtime so didn’t see if Trayanum’s 16-9 advantage in carries was due to game script with the Sun Devils up by double-digits. Similar to what we saw with Tennessee RBs last week, I can envision Trayanum being the popular play here on Friday with the salary savings, but would have no issue rostering both him and White against this Stanford run D. White has now found the end-zone in every game this season, and holds a significant value edge over Trayanum with his pass-catching abilities – 23 receptions on 25 targets.
Will have to keep track of Johnny Wilson’s health on Friday as he missed last week with a hamstring injury. That moved Ricky Pearsall outside and the move paid off with him finding the end-zone twice with a season-high 132 yards receiving. If Wilson is back in the lineup, that would shift Pearsall back to his normal alignment in the slot. That would downgrade LV Bunkley-Shelton, who seems to be falling out of favor as he’s seen his snap counts decrease the last two games. Really a crapshoot beyond Pearsall and Wilson, with LV, Bryan Thompson, Andre Johnson and Geordon Porter all seeing sporadic reps on the field. Volume isn’t there to roster anyone outside of Pearsall, IMO.