Stanford @ Arizona State
Point-Spread: Az St -13
O/U Total: 51.5
Weather: 80 degrees / 1% rain / 6 mph winds
Stanford:
Austin Jones was back in the lineup last week for Stanford, but was relegated to backup duties with Nathaniel Peat getting the start, rushing for 78 yards on 15 carries vs. Oregon. It does appear as though the Stanford running game is rounding into form as the year goes along, averaging over four yards a carry in each of the last three games, but the advanced stats still hate this offensive line which is 99th or lower in Line Yards, Stuff Rate, Power Success and Rush Play Success Rate. Arizona State is trending the other direction as a run defense, allowing a season-high 200 yards to UCLA last week, but are still giving up under four yards a carry on the year. Ranked 78th in Defensive Rush Play Success Rate. Peat > Jones.
QB Tanner McKee continued his shining play this season against Oregon last week, throwing for 230 yards and three touchdowns, and still hasn’t turned the ball over this season. Has topped 22 fantasy points in four of the five games played this season. Arizona State is allowing 18.1 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season and are 11th in the country in Defensive Pass Play Success Rate so this will be a challenge for McKee, but he’s passed every test to date thus far.
Michael Wilson still hasn’t returned to the lineup and Brycen Tremayne is already announced out this week so we are really down to three primary pass-catchers to focus on with Elijah Higgins, John Humphreys and tight end Ben Yurosek. The 6-foot-3 Higgins has started all year but really emerged the last two weeks with 11 receptions on 17 targets. Three TDs in the last four games. Humphreys is another tree at 6-foot-5 and has seen an uptick in targets and snaps the last two games with 14 of his 21 targets. He “benefits” the most with Tremayne out. Arizona State is allowing just 4.0 FPPG to opposing TE1s on the season, but struggled to contain Greg Dulcich and Isaac Rex who scored 22 and 15 fantasy points, respectively.
Arizona State:
From a fantasy standpoint, Jayden Daniels’ play has picked up the last two weeks, averaging 26 points against Colorado and UCLA. Daniels faces a pedestrian Stanford pass defense that is allowing 23.1 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season, and allowed four rushing TDs combined to both Anthony Brown and DTR already. The Cardinal are 55th in Defensive Pass Play Success Rate. Stanford is substantially worse at defending the run this season, ranking 127th in Rush Play Success rate and still possess the worst rush defense in the Pac-12, allowing over 212 yards per game. The Cardinal weren’t any better last week, allowing 228 yards and three scores on the ground to Oregon. Arizona State is throwing the ball far more in 2021 (42.8%), but this is still a run-first offense behind the duo of Rachaad White and Chip Trayanum who were finally on the field at the same time, for the first time, in weeks against UCLA. This game was past my bedtime so didn’t see if Trayanum’s 16-9 advantage in carries was due to game script with the Sun Devils up by double-digits. Similar to what we saw with Tennessee RBs last week, I can envision Trayanum being the popular play here on Friday with the salary savings, but would have no issue rostering both him and White against this Stanford run D. White has now found the end-zone in every game this season, and holds a significant value edge over Trayanum with his pass-catching abilities – 23 receptions on 25 targets.
Will have to keep track of Johnny Wilson’s health on Friday as he missed last week with a hamstring injury. That moved Ricky Pearsall outside and the move paid off with him finding the end-zone twice with a season-high 132 yards receiving. If Wilson is back in the lineup, that would shift Pearsall back to his normal alignment in the slot. That would downgrade LV Bunkley-Shelton, who seems to be falling out of favor as he’s seen his snap counts decrease the last two games. Really a crapshoot beyond Pearsall and Wilson, with LV, Bryan Thompson, Andre Johnson and Geordon Porter all seeing sporadic reps on the field. Volume isn’t there to roster anyone outside of Pearsall, IMO.
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