Nebraska vs. Rutgers
Point-Spread: Neb -3
O/U Total: 48.5
Implied Score: Neb 26 – Rutg 22.5
Weather: 58 degrees / 19% rain / 8 mph winds
Nebraska:
Top Play(s) – RB Anthony Grant ($6,800) So much for the notion that Mark Whipple would split carries between multiple running backs as he’s done at previous stops. 32 carries in the win over Indiana, versus just six for backup Gabe Ervin Jr. This is a stingy Rutgers defense statistically, allowing under three yards a carry on the season, but coming off a performance against Ohio State where the Knights gave up 252 yards and five touchdowns – most of which to Miyan Williams. Don’t put a ton of stock into the first four games in which they limited Boston College, Iowa, Wagner and Temple – all awful rushing teams.
Fade – Gabe Ervin Jr. ($5,200) See above.
Bargain Bin – TE Travis Vokolek ($3,500) Simply the cheapest Nebraska player that I’d even consider so that’s why he’s listed, but not someone I’m targeting. Was tied with Marcus Washington for the most receiving routes run last week against Indiana, targeted four times but resulting in just one reception.
Pivot Play – QB Casey Thompson ($6,700) For such a dismal four-game slate, there are a surplus of quarterback options at our disposal. For that reason, I don’t really love Thompson in this spot but also not removing him completely. Home and away splits don’t look promising for Thompson going on the road in a night game spot. Rutgers is 33rd in pass play success rate and allowing just 17.8 FPPG to quarterbacks. I’ll sprinkle some lineups, but will be vastly underweight.
Best of the Rest – WR Trey Palmer ($6,900) Was a tough decision between Grant and Palmer for Nebraska’s top play but I’d always side with a running back destined for 20+ rushing attempts in a game where the Cornhuskers are favored. Still, Palmer is arguably the best WR option on the slate, now accounting for 31% of Nebraska’s team target share.
Injury Notes – n/a
Rutgers:
Top Play(s) – RB Samuel Brown ($3,000) Looks like the takeover in the Rutgers backfield has occurred with 4-star freshman Samuel Brown getting a team-high 15 carries for 79 yards in the loss to Ohio State. Nebraska is awful defending both the run and the pass, but have been worse on the ground, ranking 122nd in rush play success rate and allowing over 22 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Once we get to October, the number of times we consider min-priced players drops significantly, but this situation absolutely fits the bill.
Fade – QB Evan Simon ($5,300) HC Greg Schiano didn’t necessarily have the most glowing remarks about his current starting quarterback, practically saying the best thing he’s done is his ability to take a hit and bounce back from it. Both Gavin Wimsatt and Noah Vedral are questionable for Friday, with Schiano stating they have a plan in place for when to bring Vedral back. I’m not even considering starting a QB that threw for just 74 yards this past week against Ohio State.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – TE Johnny Langan ($4,300) Would never play a tight end at this pricing unless he’s Michael Mayer or Brock Bowers, but the Swiss army knife Langan impacts the game in a variety of ways. Second on the team in targets (22), fourth in rushing attempts (22) and is probably a better quarterback than both Evan Simon and Gavin Wimsatt.
Best of the Rest – WRs. The only WR truly even worth mentioning for Rutgers may not even play on Friday (see below). Outside of that you have a smorgasbord of mediocrity between Shameen Jones, Joshua Youngblood, Chris Long and Sean Ryan who are averaging 5.2 receptions per game as an entire group.
Injury Notes – We touched on the quarterback situation above. Noah Vedral was throwing pregame last week, so he might be closer to starting. WR Aron Cruickshank ($4,800) delivered the now-infamous hit to the Ohio State punter that resulted in an ejection. We’ll see if its just a first-half suspension or full-game on Friday.
Houston vs. Memphis
Point-Spread: Mem -3.5
O/U Total: 57.5
Implied Score: Mem 30.5 – Hou 27
Weather: 78 degrees / 0% rain / 10 mph winds
Houston:
Top Play(s) – WR Nathaniel Dell ($7,900) What do teenagers say these days? Obvi. Even at less than 100% health, Dell went for 8-73-2 on nine targets. Houston really doesn’t have any true difference makers in the passing game (right now) other than Dell.
Fade – TE Christian Trahan ($3,900) Plenty of time spent on the field without actually being a factor in the passing game. Not entirely sure why, but just nine targets all year. Probably destined to breakout now that we keep fading him, but there’s no evidence here to suggest he should even be considered outside of…he’s on the field a lot.
Bargain Bin – WR Sam Brown ($3,300) The West Virginia transfer saw his first extended action this season at receiver and caught four passes on five targets. With Joseph Manjack now sidelined, it would appear Brown will see regular time in the rotation. Houston desperately needs a reliable option next to Dell.
Pivot Play – QB Clayton Tune ($7,400) As a major proponent of Tune prior to the season, to say it’s been a disappointment has been an understatement. Absolutely zero reason to say that Tune bears all of that responsibility, but things just haven’t meshed the way we thought they would for the Houston offense. Chance here for a possible get-right spot for Tune and the passing game as Memphis is allowing 28.4 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks in 2022 and 103rd in pass play success rate. Memphis is FAR better at defending the run.
Best of the Rest – RB Brandon Campbell ($6,200) Campbell is now the lone option in the Houston backfield with the Henry injury and will get anywhere between 15-20 carries from here on out. Not confident in Houston finding success on the ground this week against a Memphis defense that is top 30 in rush play success rate and has held all five of its opponents to under four yards a carry. Houston has a solid offensive line, fwiw. Tough to justify the price tag on Matthew Golden ($5,500) but he’s second on the team in targets, receptions and touchdowns, while there is a significant gap in receiving routes run this season between the freshman and the next closest Houston receiver.
Injury Notes – RB Ta’Zhawn Henry ($6,100) It was announced Tuesday that Henry will have surgery after leaving the Tulane contest on crutches, so that likely means gone for the remainder of the regular season. Joseph Manjack ($3,900) will miss multiple weeks due to injury.
Memphis:
Top Play(s) – n/a Credit HC Ryan Silverfield, I suppose, for getting Memphis to 4-1 without any stars or credible playmakers on offense this season. Defense and the 86th ranked strength of schedule is a big reason why the Tigers are tied for first in the standings. Even at an implied team total of over 30 points, you do not need to play a single Memphis player in a lineup this week. 8th in the AAC in rushing. No player with more than 19% target share. A very bland offense.
Fade – WR Javon Ivory ($6,000) All throughout the offseason, the coaching staff made it a point to say they did not have another Calvin Austin III on the roster and that this would be a committee approach at receiver. And that is exactly how the season is playing out. Ivory does lead the team with 30 targets, but only a 57% conversion rate with three drops.
Bargain Bin – TE Caden Prieskorn ($4,100) I’d say far and away the most consistent performer on the Memphis offense all season. First in routes run, first in touchdowns (5), first in receptions and third on the team in targets.
Pivot Play – QB Seth Henigan ($7,200) You wouldn’t know it by his fantasy stats, but Henigan is significantly improved since his freshman season. Completion percentage is up eight points. Turned the ball over just one time this season. Volume is down slightly as a passer, and averaging 50 yards a game less through the air, but Henigan also is running the ball 10.8 times per game. Houston secondary is 72nd in pass play success rate and are allowing 35.6 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks, seventh most in the country.
Best of the Rest – RB Brandon Thomas ($5,900) RBBC with three different backs + Henigan getting consistent work in the run game. Thomas is only averaging 10.8 carries a game, but has six rushing touchdowns in the last four weeks. Finding the end-zone is really the only way Thomas hits value, averaging just 3.9 YPC. I have zero interest in doing a deep dive at receiver for Memphis. Eddie Lewis ($5,200) and Gabriel Rogers ($4,600) are the starters alongside Ivory, but there is no target hog. Numbers between the two are nearly identical. Roc Taylor ($3,700) was targeted seven times, a season-high, against Temple, but the game was out of hand for much of the day. Joe Scates ($3,000), an Iowa State transfer, is a big play threat waiting to happen with a pair of 50+ yard touchdown receptions this season. Targets (10) are minimal, though.
Injury Notes – RB Rodrigues Clark ($5,300) If you run everything via an optimizer, please don’t have Clark included in your CSVs. He’s no longer with the program.
Colorado State vs. Nevada
Point-Spread: Nev -3.5
O/U Total: 44.5
Implied Score: Nev 24 – CSU 20.5
Weather: 70 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Colorado State:
Top Play(s) – WR Tory Horton ($6,200) Horton is our top play, but we could also make the argument he should be the top fade in GPPs as well if trying to gain leverage over the field. Colorado State will be starting a backup quarterback Friday, and I don’t think we need to force any player in our lineup from a team that lost 41-10 to Colorado State. Couple that with the fact you’re an underdog to a team that should be in a Year 0 situation in Nevada with a new coaching staff and entirely new roster. Embarrassing.
Fade – RB A’Jon Vivens ($5,900) You would think starting a young quarterback with a depleted wide receiver corps that the Rams might look to establish the run on Friday. Good in thought, but probably not with a team that is BY FAR the worst in the Mountain West, averaging just 46 yards per game as a team. CSU is facing the 10th ranked run defense in the conference and Vivens does have six targets. Colorado State’s offensive line is among the worst in the country, ranking 115th in line yards and 99th in stuff rate.
Bargain Bin – WR Justus Ross-Simmons ($3,000) Three veteran receivers left the program in the last two weeks, leaving Horton and freshmen now as the only pass-catching options. If Tory Horton departs for the NFL next year, look for the 6-foot-3 Ross-Simmons to assume the WR1 role as he’s been a player mentioned throughout the offseason by the staff. All of his targets have been around the line of scrimmage, but does have nine targets in two games.
Pivot Play – QB Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi ($5,800) Hit Tory Horton for a 52-yard touchdown against Sacramento State in his first college appearance but was largely unimpressive outside of that. Understandable given the dumpster fire situation he was put in, but probably best to just avoid any temptation this week given we have a surplus of QB options to choose from. FWIW, the freshman quarterback did have an impressive offer sheet with Arizona, Oregon State, Pittsburgh and others listed, so there is some talent there. BFN has had two weeks to prepare for Nevada with the bye week last Saturday.
Best of the Rest – WR Louis Brown ($3,000) Another FR that will now join the starting lineup with the departures of Ty McCulloch and Melquan Stovall. He’ll lineup in the slot where Stovall did. TE Tanner Arkin ($3,500) was thought to be another Cole Turner this year if everything went swimmingly, but that’s been far from the case. Just three targets in four games as he’s been limited to blocking duties to assist this porous offensive line.
Injury Notes – QB Clay Millen ($6,200) The redshirt freshman has not been publicly ruled out by the coaching staff, but is expected to miss another week due to injury.
Nevada:
Top Play(s) – RB Toa Taua ($6,400) Double-digit fantasy points in four of the five games played this season and averaged 19 carries a game in the two victories to start the year. Now a three-point favorite at home, 15 rushing attempts is probably the floor here. CSU is only allowing 16.4 FPPG to opposing running backs this season but are the 94th ranked run defense nationally.
Fade – QB Nate Cox ($6,000) Nevada has thrown for more than 150 yards just one time this season. Don’t care who is across the field from them, this is a fade.
Bargain Bin – WR Dalevon Campbell ($3,200) Reps have increased the last three games for Campbell with Tyrese Mack out (for whatever unknown reason). Should we get notification the Mack is back, Campbell is downgraded. For now, we have a $3.2k receiver that has been targeted 18 times in the last three games.
Pivot Play – RB Devonte Lee ($4,600) Throw out the Iowa and Air Force games where Nevada was completely overmatched. In the three comparable matchups, Lee is averaging 10.3 rushing attempts per game with four rushing TDs.
Best of the Rest – WR Jamaal Bell ($5,600) and Brian Casteel ($5,200) The starting duo leads Nevada in targets and routes run by a considerable margin over their counterparts but are too pricy in the 120th ranked passing offense. Bell is averaging 7.0 targets a game.
Injury Notes – n/a
UNLV vs. San Jose State
Point-Spread: SJSU -6.5
O/U Total: 52.5
Implied Score: SJSU 29.5 – UNLV 23
Weather: 71 degrees / 0% rain / 4 mph winds
UNLV:
Top Play(s) – QB Doug Brumfield ($7,800) The fantasy production wasn’t there last week, but give credit to New Mexico who has a severely underrated defense. Brumfield still played well, completing 73% of his passes and did have a rushing touchdown. I think game script sets up well here against a top notch run defense and a near-touchdown underdog. SJSU is allowing just 14.3 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. Those quarterbacks are Andrew Peasley, T.J. Finley and Mareyohn Hrabowski. Those numbers mean nothing essentially.
Fade – RB Aidan Robbins ($7,300) I’ll preface by stating that a running back who receives 69% of the backfield market share is never an outright fade. But the case can be made that you should be underweight on Robbins Friday. Bad game script for Robbins where UNLV is now a 6.5-point underdog on the road – was 5.5 to begin the week. Already having faced Tank Bigsby, Titus Swen and Sean Tyler this season, San Jose State is also allowing just 10.3 FPPG to opposing RBs which is the 10th best mark in the country.
Bargain Bin – WR Senika McKie ($3,400) In the tweet from the UNLV reporter this week confirming the WR injuries, she also mentioned to expect another big performance from McKie as he’s flashed in practices. Starting in place of Kyle Williams, McKie caught five passes for 72 yards on seven targets while playing all 71 offensive snaps against New Mexico.
Pivot Play – WR Ricky White ($7,000) Disappointing few weeks for White owners in both CFF and DFS, producing just 43 yards on six receptions in the last two games. Targets were there last week for White, though, and he played all 71 of the team’s offensive snaps. Production hasn’t been there, but that’ll lead towards less ownership in GPPs. He’s still the team’s WR1.
Best of the Rest – WR Kalvin Souders ($3,700) Souders was the other receiver mentioned by the UNLV beat reporter of having flashed this week in practice. The freshman caught all four of his targets in last week’s win over New Mexico, but his play is dependent on Nick Williams’ health, who I believe left the game due to injury. Both play in the slot, so we’ll need to stay abreast with the news here.
Injury Notes – Already been confirmed that UNLV will be without both Kyle Williams ($6,700) and Jeff Weimer ($4,700) again this week.
San Jose State:
Top Play(s) – QB Chevan Cordeiro ($7,000) Too cheap for the best quarterback on the slate. UNLV is significantly worse at defending the pass in 2022, ranked 123rd in explosiveness, 80th in success rate and 23 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. When you allow Miles Kendrick to score 21 fantasy points…not great, Bob.
Fade – Tight ends. See below on the injury to Sam Olson. Dominick Mazotti was targeted four times against Wyoming and Skylar Loving-Black did catch a touchdown pass. But injuries + no surefire starter here would mean a stay away spot for me. We may not even get confirmation on Sam Olson’s availability.
Bargain Bin – WR Charles Ross ($4,400) Increased usage for Ross the last three games with 18 of his 20 targets coming in that span. San Jose State’s receivers combine for 62% of the total team target share, so there really isn’t anyone else involved beyond the top three of Ross, Elijah Cooks ($5,200) and Justin Lockhart ($5,700). Cooks led the way vs. Wyoming with 11 targets.
Pivot Play – RB Kairee Robinson ($5,500) San Jose State only runs the ball 42% of the time, but when they do, it’s usually Robinson who is garnering 68% of the backfield volume share. Nobody else is getting carries here. Found the end-zone in each of the last three games, rushing 20 times for 100 yards against Wyoming. I’ll caution by saying UNLV is also very good at stopping the run, allowing just 12.3 FPPG to opposing RB1s and No. 2 nationally in rush play success rate.
Best of the Rest – n/a. We touched on Robinson’s market share above. San Jose State receivers beyond Lockhart, Cooks and Ross combined for all of 15 total offensive snaps. This is a very centralized production share at all offensive positions.
Injury Notes – TE Sam Olson ($3,500) Played just nine offensive snaps as he left the Wyoming contest with an injury. We’ll see on his status one a few more game previews are published this week.
