Buffalo @ Kent State
Point-Spread: Kent -6
O/U Total: 65
Weather: 65 degrees / 6% rain / 7 mph winds
Buffalo:
This is the danger with projecting players from teams that are changing coaching staffs. Kevin Marks was a consensus Top 10 RB in CFF coming into the year but has not lived up to expectations. In part due to him, but the Buffalo offensive line isn’t doing the job either, ranking 101st in Line Yards and the Bulls as a team are 108th in Rush Play Success Rate. Is Kent State the cure? Allowing the most rushing yards of any team on this slate and give up the fifth most fantasy points in the country to RB1s at 25.9 FPPG. Major risk/reward here given the matchup. With Marks’ struggles, Buffalo is giving plenty of reps to backups Dylan McDuffie and Ron Cook Jr. Snap counts last weekend vs. Western Michigan were dead even. I think we avoid this situation entirely because Kent State’s poor ranking look to be a reflection of the brutal non-conference schedule. The Flashes held Bowling Green to just 55 yards on 26 carries a week ago. Eastern Michigan transfer Quian Williams is the target hog at receiver with 31 percent of the share, and back to back 100-yard performances. Dominic Johnson is second on the team with 15 catches on 24 targets. With the struggles on the ground, we are seeing Kyle Vantrease take to the air more this season, averaging five more attempts per game. Kent State is allowing 24.3 FPPG to opposing QBs and are 106th in Defensive Pass Play Success Rate so he’s in play for us here with a positive game script.
Kent State:
I think we are seeing the effects of not having Isaiah McCoy with this Kent State passing game. Ja’Shaun Poke was expected to be that alpha, but was out due to injury to begin the year, and nobody really stepped up at receiver. Solid options with Keshunn Abram, Dante Cephas and Nykeim Johnson, but nobody is a true different maker. With regards to Poke, he saw his highest snap count of the season last week and is cheap at $3,600. Of the potential options, Cephas appears to be emerging of late with 16 catches on 20 targets in the last two games. Johnson is a close second on the season with 33 targets compared to 36 for Cephas. Abram has six targets in each of the last three weeks and a really nice aDOT of 17.3, averaging over 16 yards per receptions. Everyone is in play since these four dominate the target share with nobody else involved. Dustin Crum is definitely in play at $6,800 facing a Buffalo defense that is allowing over 31 FPPG on the season. Projected at 24 fantasy points on the site, which I believe is closer to his floor. At running back, we’ve seen both instances of a RBBC and workhorse with RB1 Marquez Cooper hitting a season-high 31 attempts last week vs. Bowling Green. Was averaging just 11 carries a game prior to that. Kent State does not feature their RBs in the passing game so no added advantage there. Xavier Williams is frequently involved in the run game, averaging 11 carries a game and would be a wise pivot in some lineups at just $3,300.
TCU @ Texas Tech
Point-Spread: TCU -2
O/U Total: 60.5
Weather: 92 degrees / 0% rain / 15 mph winds
TCU:
Max Duggan should feasibly have his way with this Texas Tech pass defense, even if Quentin Johnston doesn’t play, as the Red Raiders are allowing over 30 FPPG to opposing QBs and have already had three different 300+ yard passers against them. Duggan’s numbers are down on the ground, but his att/g are right in line with what we saw a year ago. If there is a game that shoots out on this slate, this looks to be the one. As for QJ, I haven’t seen an official update after suffering a hyper-extended knee last week. Something to monitor pregame. If QJ is out, Derius Davis and Taye Barber are the plays as they combined for 12 targets last week vs. Texas. Davis’ snap counts have risen the last month and now has 18 targets over the last three games. Barber looks to be the big threat for a deep shot with an aDOT of 16.8. 6-foot-4 Quincy Brown looks like he would be the starter on the outside in place of QJ should he sit, with JD Spielman also in the rotation. Tech is allowing just 114 yards on the ground this season and 14.5 FPPG to opposing RBs. We all know Zach Evans is good enough to make any defense look silly, but worth spending up? TCU is 18th in Line Yards vs. Texas Tech who is 83rd in Rush Success Rate. Aka – Evans is just fine as a potential option this week.
Texas Tech:
SaRodorick Thompson breakout this week? Tahj Brooks is questionable but listed third on the depth chart, which has me thinking he will not play tonight. Everyone’s been able to run on TCU this season, Allowing over five yards a carry and 204 yards per game, with two rushing TDs given up in each of the last three games. Thompson fell into the end-zone twice last week vs. a better West Virginia defense. Backup Xavier White will rotate in on passing downs, but Thompson saw 2/3s of the snaps last week. Like the play if Brooks is out. WR1 Erik Ezukanma is also questionable, but listed atop the depth chart which looks better for his prognosis this week. Still need to do our checks pregame. We get a nice price savings for Easy-E as he’s $700 cheaper than Kaylon Geiger, and was the clear-cut WR1 when healthy, averaging nine targets a game in the first four weeks. Geiger has really come on the last three games with 25 of his 30 targets coming in that span and two 100-yard performances. Those two account for 47 percent of the target share, so they’re the only two of serious interest. Myles Price and Dalton Rigdon start in the slot with 20 total targets between them – less than both Ezukanma and Geiger. TCU’s porous run defense garners the headlines but the Horned Frogs are allowing 30.1 FPPG to opposing QBs this season and are 56th in Pass Play Success rate. Similar to Max Bortenschlager on Friday, I don’t think I’ve every touted Henry Columbi as a possible play, but he’s in the pool tonight. Having both EE and Geiger would be a huge boost. Texas Tech OC Sonny Cumbie is very familiar with Gary Patterson and TCU so he should know how to attack this defense – I guess the same logic would apply to the other side though too.
Wyoming @ Air Force
Point-Spread: AF -5
O/U Total: 46.5
Weather: 59 degrees / 4% rain / 17 mph winds
Wyoming:
Air Force is 12th in the country in FPPG allowed to running backs (9.7) and are giving up just 89.4 YPG and 3.26 YPC. I wouldn’t call them a dominant rush defense, though, as both Utah State and Florida Atlantic found a great deal of success (not primarily run-based teams) and AF ranks just 66th in Rush Play Success Rate. Our projections pit Xazavian Valladay right around Air Force’s average this season of 84 yards and a TD. Problem with Valladay right now is the 60-40 split in the Wyoming backfield this season with sophomore Titus Swen now with double-digit carries in each of the last two games, averaging five yards a carry on the dot. Air Force is allowing just 15.8 FPPG to opposing QBs this season, and while Sean Chambers is cheap here, he’s not running the ball like we’ve seen in previous seasons. Probably because that kind of volume always led to injury. Does have two rushing TDs, but four fumbles in the last three games. Chambers completed under 58 percent of his throws against a slate of Montana State, NIU, Ball State and UConn. I don’t have confidence he’ll find success this week. Isaiah Neyor and Ayden Eberhardt dominate the target share at receiver (48 percent) with Neyor being the alpha of the group with three touchdowns and an aDOT of 17.1. He’s a talented player.
Air Force:
Who’s that idiot who projected Wyoming as a Top 20 fantasy defense this year? The Cowboys can’t stop the run, taking on a team that will run it 40-50 times. Don’t ever want to 100 percent lock someone in our lineups, but if you did, it would be Brad Roberts this week who is second in the country in rushing attempts per game (23.4). Wyoming is allowing 20 FPPG to opposing RBs this season, and I’m not putting a ton of stock into their improvements over the last two games holding Ball State and Connecticut to under four yards a carry. Quarterback Haaziq Daniels is averaging 14 carries on the ground this season with eight rushing touchdowns. Wyoming is third in the country in FPPG allowed to opposing QBs this season but we aren’t rostering Daniels for his throwing ability. Micah Davis is the team’s top playmaker at wide receiver but left last week’s contest due to injury, and I’m unsure of his status to this point. Brandon Lewis was the only WR to see a target vs. New Mexico. Top slot-back DeAndre Hughes also left last week due to injury. He rushed for 89 yards on 10 carries with a TD prior to his exit.
LSU @ Kentucky
Point-Spread: UK -2.5
O/U Total: 50.5
Weather: 70 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
LSU:
It’s messy at receiver for LSU and I’ll admittedly have to do more digging leading up to game-time. Kayshon Boutte was at practice later in the week and seems to be a go this week, but is he 100 percent? Jontre Kirklin is back from suspension, but is he also 100 percent in terms of conditioning after being out for that length of time. Trey Palmer was in a non-contact jersey as of Wednesday so we aren’t 100 percent on his status either. Lots to digest there, and we’ll have more clarity on the Discord leading up to game time. Should Palmer or any veteran be out, LSU did lean on their young FR last week vs. Auburn with Deion Smith, Brian Thomas Jr. and Malik Nabers who combined for 16 targets, though the production was minimal. With the WR position in flux, it’s been FR tight end Jack Bech who has emerged as the No. 2 behind Boutte with 19 targets in the last three weeks, and topped 80+ receiving yards twice.
Don’t even fiddle with the LSU running backs as it’s a split still between Corey Kiner and Tyrion Davis-Price for whatever reason. Outside of one Tyler Badie performance, UK has completely shut down opposing running backs this season and are 10th in Defensive Rush Play Success Rate. For better or worse, we’ll probably see 40 passing attempts again from Max Johnson with LSU having no semblance of a ground attack. Has thrown three or more touchdowns in each of the last four games, but Kentucky has been good at defending the pass too, holding teams to just 180 yards per game and fourth in the SEC with 18 pass breakups. Some exposure to Johnson tonight with the limited options at QB, but not someone we need to jam in our lineups.
Kentucky:
Everyone can see that Will Levis was over-hyped after the first week, with his low-point coming last week, throwing for just 87 yards vs. Florida. He’s no good, I get it. But this is the worst pass defense in the SEC in LSU, giving up 248 yards per game through the air and rank 53rd in Pass Play Success Rate. Not to mention, they’ll be without cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. who is out indefinitely now with a foot injury. I’m just saying…LSU is allowing 28.5 FPPG to opposing QBs this season. I just don’t think he should be eliminated from our player pool of options is all. Doesn’t help his case that he’s down really just to one wide receiver to throw to in Wan’Dale Robinson with Josh Ali out the next two games per head coach Mark Stoops. With Ali out, Isaiah Epps steps into the WR2 role, but doesn’t have much to show for his career with just 25 receptions in four seasons. No idea what to expect there. Demarcus Harris, I believe, would be the third man up on the WR pecking order. All this conjecture probably all just leads back to one spot – hand the ball of 30 times to Chris Rodriguez. The Tigers are allowing 17.9 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season but a lot of that damage came from Jo’Quavious Marks and Dillon Johnson who were productive in the passing game. This should be a battle in the trenches where LSU is 19th in Rush Play Success Rate vs. a Kentucky offensive line that is 10th in Line Yards and 24th in Rush Play Success Rate. Strength on Strength.
Notre Dame @ Virginia Tech
Point-Spread: PK
O/U Total: 47
Weather: 62 degrees / 36% rain / 3 mph winds
Notre Dame:
I’m not going to mess with the quarterback position here, because I’m still not sure what Brian Kelly will do at the position with Jack Coan and Drew Pyne still potentially in line to start. And if Player A starts, there is a strong likelihood that Player B also sees time on the field so this is a stay away for me. We also need to monitor the status of start tight end Michael Mayer who is questionable to play with a strained muscle injury. Kelly said they’ve been adding to his plate each day in practice, so I assume he’ll be a go. Mayer has topped double-digit targets in each of the last two games. WR1 Kevin Austin feels really cheap at $4,900 in a buy-low spot after tallying just one reception against Cincinnati. Taller, physical receivers like Austin tend to cause problems for the Virginia Tech secondary, but they’ve been up to the task for the most part this year, ranking 3rd in Pass Play Success Rate. Braden Lenzy found the end-zone for the first time last week and 21 of his 28 targets have come in the last three games. Drops (3) are his downfall. Slot-man Avery Davis was targeted nine times against Cincinnati and has three or more receptions in the last four games. This trio dominates the snap counts at receiver for the Irish.
Do we trust the ND running game to get things going this week? The Hokies are allowing 13.3 FPPG to opposing RB1s but if you are beating this Virginia Tech defense, it’s via the run as they’re 82nd in Rush Play Success Rate and have already allowed 161 yards on the ground to Leddie Brown this year (yes, yes 80 came on one play). Saturday night projects to be a game won in the trenches with rain in the forecast, but that’s not good news for the Irish as their offensive line is putrid. There is a reason Kyren Williams is averaging under three yards a carry the last two weeks.
Virginia Tech:
Very little interest here from me on the Virginia Tech side of things. Braxton Burmeister has his limitations as a passer, though he has accounted for at least one passing TD in every game this season and is averaging 11 carries on the ground. One TD via the run and pass would feasibly be enough to pay off that $6,400 salary, yes? Limited upside here, though, with a 23-point implied total taking on one of the better pass defenses in the country in Notre Dame who ranks 7th in PFF coverage grades and 46th in Pass Play Success Rate. I want nothing to do with the Va Tech backfield with a 50-50 split between Jalen Holston and Raheem Blackshear, with the latter only potentially viable because of his work as a pass-catcher (10 catches / 14 targets). The Hokies offensive line can’t run block either. At receiver, Tre Turner and Tayvion Robinson are the only two of interest, garnering 49 percent of the team target share. I suppose Kaleb Smith is worth mentioning with 15 targets coming in the last three games, but a player that has done very little in his career.
Michigan @ Nebraska
Point-Spread: UM -3
O/U Total: 49.5
Weather: 81 degrees / 8% rain / 8 mph winds
Michigan:
We’re always out on Cade McNamara, he’s not in play, especially with the coaching staff getting prized-freshman J.J. McCarthy some snaps on rushing downs. The discussion centers around the running backs that were held in check again vs. Wisconsin. Nebraska seems to have shored some of their issues defending the run, holding both Michigan State and Northwestern to under 75 yards the last two games. McNamara and his receivers will be forced to make plays once again to keep defenses from loading the box. Advanced stats don’t show any distinct advantages here for the Wolverines running the football with Blake Corum and Hassan Haskins, ranking 52nd in Rush Play Success Rate vs. 43rd Defensive Success Rate on the Cornhuskers side. Michigan will continue to feed their two running backs, but we’re looking at a near 50-50 split between them. Solid plays given Michigan’s 70 percent run rate on the season – 4th in country – but don’t see them busting out in this spot on the road for any slate-breaking stats. Rumors surrounding Roman Wilson right now about a broken wrist so we’ll monitor that pregame if he’s dressed. Had a breakout day vs. Wisconsin with 6-81-0 on eight targets, and is the Wolverine’s fastest receiver. Priority remains the same here for me with Cornelius Johnson->Daylen Baldwin->Erick All->Mike Sainristil (if Wilson is out).
Nebraska:
Michigan’s running game saw plenty of headlines in the month of September, but Saturday’s matchup will feature the top two rushing offenses in the Big Ten. Nebraska had a season-high 427 yards on the ground against Northwestern last Saturday with seven rushing scores, putting the Cornhuskers at 20 on the season, which is good for second in the nation behind Air Force. Spearheading the attack is quarterback Adrian Martinez, who ran for a career-best three touchdowns against the Wildcats and is 15th in the country in total offense at 312.5 yards per game. Martinez has “gotten there” each week with his rushing ability, averaging nearly 30 FPPG but this is the best defense he’ll have faced to date in the Wolverines who are allowing just 16.3 FPPG to opposing QBs this season. May have my Maize and Blue glasses on right now, but the Wolverines are 27th in Rush Play Success Rate, 38th in Pass Play Success Rate and 9th in Points Per Opportunity allowed. I’m fading Martinez.
Redshirt freshman running back Rahmir Johnson has filled in admirably in the backfield due to injury over the last two weeks, averaging over five yards per attempt, and found paydirt twice last Saturday. Michigan is allowing just 3.31 yards per carry on the season and holding RB1s to just 6.1 FPPG this season. The advanced metric like the Nebraska offensive line despite some criticism and recent changes to the personnel, ranking 21st in Line Yards and 11th in Stuff Rate. I wouldn’t roster Johnson this week against the Michigan defense.
If the Wolverines give up chunk plays, it’s typically through the air. Nebraska didn’t need to take to the air much last week vs. the Wildcats but the rotation appears settled now with Oliver Martin now back in the lineup with he and Zavier Betts starting outside and Samori Toure in the slot. Looking back at Michigan’s performances this season, the two highest outputs this season against them have been from Washington’s Terrell Bynum and WMU’s Corey Crooms – both slot receivers. That favors Toure here.
Alabama @ Texas A&M
Point-Spread: Bama -18
O/U Total: 51
Weather: 81 degrees / 0% rain / 10 mph winds
Alabama:
I’ll typically take the running game of Alabama vs. any opponent, but this head-to-head is tough for me to decipher. Texas A&M has yet to give up a rushing touchdown thus far in SEC play and is giving up just 9.0 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season. That said, Colorado, Arkansas and Kent State were able to rush for more than 170+ yards against this defense. And with that said now, A&M ranks 13th in Rush Play Success Rate. Conflicting information! I probably like, not love, Brian Robinson Jr. this week now in a bellcow role after the season-ending injury news to Jase McClellan. One stat that might be telling here – A&M has trailed at the half in all three P5 matchups this season while Alabama has led by nearly 21 points in all three of theirs. Should the same happen Saturday, could we see 36 more carries from BRob like we did a week ago?
I view Bryce Young very similarly to Robinson this week, like but not love as the highest-priced QB on the slate. A&M is allowing just 17.3 FPPG to opposing QBs this season, rank ninth in PFF coverage grades and are 12th in Defensive Pass Play Success rate. Again, you trust the Tide offense to score points, but as I loved to say in the Main Slate writeup (@DaDeano)…”is the juice worth the squeeze?”
I was posed a question this week on the Discord whether a player should trade Tay Martin for both John Metchie and Jameson Williams? First glance, I’d be crazy not to want two Alabama receivers on my team. Second glance, Alabama doesn’t have a target hog ala DeVonta Smith last year as neither player has reached double-digit targets in a game all year to this point, with the leading TD getter being second-string tight end Cameron Latu. Metchie leads all receivers in targets, but I prefer Williams who has the edge in touchdowns (3) and a vastly superior aDOT of 16.1 compared to just 7.1 for the possession receiver. Will this be the week that Jahleel Billingsley produces after everyone and their moms was rostering him against Ole Miss? Targets on the upswing with 10 total in the last two games. Just 1.4 FPPG for opposing TEs against Texas A&M this season, but they haven’t faced any teams to date that utilize the position in the passing game. Slade Bolden continues to hold a slight edge in snaps over JoJo Earle in the slot, and had four targets vs. Ole Miss.
Texas A&M:
Hilarious that Zach Calzada is priced lower than Haynes King here. Perfect reflection of what to expect from him in this matchup. Also hilarious that one of Alabama’s beat writer predictions this week is that Isaiah Spiller will top 30 rushing yards against the Tide. His first two outings against Alabama have not fared well with 27 yards in 2019 and 25 last season. Alabama sits right above A&M in FPPG allowed to RB1s this season at just 8.9 and are 20th nationally in Rush Success Rate. Easy fade on DK, but his $6,400 salary on FD is enticing no matter how poor the matchup is. Same goes for Devon Achane who hasn’t seen double-digit carries since Week 1, but has actually been effective with his limited touches, averaging 6.9 YPC.
Complete blunt honesty here – I’m at the point where I don’t know, or don’t care, who is available at receiver for the Aggies. Ainias Smith is healthy and leading the team in targets with 31, and is cheap at $4,800. Strictly being used as a slot receiver this season with just five rushing attempts. Jalen Preston and Demond Demas are the other two starters on the outside currently, and will have to double-check the statuses of Chase Lane and Caleb Chapman pregame. Jalen Wydermyer was targeted often in last year’s contest between the two teams, finishing with eight catches for 82 yards. Had two touchdown receptions two years ago. Bama is allowing 8.9 FPPG to opposing TE1s this season so the position has had some success against them. Very limited upside with anyone in this group.
Utah @ USC
Point-Spread: USC -3
O/U Total: 52.5
Weather: 64 degrees / 0% rain / 14 mph winds
Utah:
The Utah side here is interesting mainly because of their prices. TJ Pledger is in “prime position” to be the leading back on Saturday night after his performance against Washington State two weeks ago, rushing for 117 yards on 10 carries and a touchdown. That happening is dependent on the status of Micah Bernard who is questionable for Saturday night, but even he really hadn’t been that effective the prior two games, averaging under three yards a carry vs. WSU and San Diego State. If earlier this year was any indication, Bernard was given starter status following his 100-yard performance in Week 2 – bodes well for Pledger to get the nod Saturday with the backfield so fluid this season and Kyle Whittingham not having an allegiance to one guy. I view Pledger as an option, but not someone you’d have to force into a lineup as USC is 38th in Rush Defense Success Rate this season and has yet to allow more than 17 fantasy points to a running back this season.
Cameron Rising is also in the pool because of pricing at $5,300. After throwing three touchdowns in relief in Week 3 vs. SDSU, Rising was shaky in his first start of the year, throwing for just 137 yards at home. The 6-foot-2 sophomore is an athlete, though this system doesn’t necessarily call run plays for their QB often, but Rising does have 78 yards on 10 carries over the last two games so there is some potential upside there. Not sure what to make of the USC pass defense, allowing 22.1 FPPG to opposing QBs. One week, they’re allowing 35 fantasy points to Chance Nolan. They’ve also held opposing QBs to under 17 points three times this season. USC is 120th in Pass Play Success Rate on Defense.
Britain Covey, Theo Howard and Solomon Enis sit atop the depth chart this week at receiver, but it’s never necessary to play any of these guys or pair with Rising in such a low-volume passing offense. Covey leads the way with 27 percent of the team target share but has accounted for 15 receiving yards or less in three of the four games played this season already with an aDOT of 4.5. Tight ends have given USC some trouble this year, allowing 8.6 FPPG, so maybe Brant Kuithe is the best play here of the Utah pass-catchers, sitting second on the team in targets.
USC:
Jaxson Dart is back at practice but with some armor on his leg and was limited fashion so I don’t think there’s any shot at him playing this week. So we roll with Kedon Slovis yet again, facing a Utah pass defense giving up just 163 yards per game through the air and are 31st in Pass Play Success Rate. I believe because of the sheer volume at which USC throws the football, and having an alpha like Drake London to throw to, Slovis does provide you with a high floor, but he hasn’t topped 23 fantasy points in a game this season with lack of rushing ability. I think this is a stay-away and we look to roster some of the skill-position players. London is viable every week as the WR3 in CFF, and double-digit targets is a mortal lock. Gary Bryant Jr. now has a touchdown reception in three straight games, and if you’re into this sort of thing, USC’s 247Sports site predicts the slot receiver will find the end-zone again vs. Utah. Tahj Washington continues to see starting reps as the WR3, and still is targeted more than Bryant actually, but has not been as productive with eight catches on 18 targets in the last three weeks. Talented FR tight end Michael Trigg has seen extended playing time the last two weeks, and found the end-zone vs. Colorado for the first time in his career. Four targets in each of the last two games.
Keaontay Ingram looks like the RB to own in the USC backfield over the last two weeks with two rushing scores against Oregon State, followed by 124 yards vs. Colorado. Vavae Malepeai continues to get run, with 10 attempts last week, and we even saw TCU transfer Darwin Barlow who received 10 carries and looked good at that when running the football. Would still side with Ingram here if wanting to choose a USC back against a Utah defense that has already allowed 200 rushing yards twice in four games. The Trojans are 10th in Rush Play Success Rate vs. 47th in Success Rate for the Utes so not a major advantage there, but does favor USC slightly.