Michigan @ Nebraska
Point-Spread: UM -3
O/U Total: 49.5
Weather: 81 degrees / 8% rain / 8 mph winds
Michigan:
We’re always out on Cade McNamara, he’s not in play, especially with the coaching staff getting prized-freshman J.J. McCarthy some snaps on rushing downs. The discussion centers around the running backs that were held in check again vs. Wisconsin. Nebraska seems to have shored some of their issues defending the run, holding both Michigan State and Northwestern to under 75 yards the last two games. McNamara and his receivers will be forced to make plays once again to keep defenses from loading the box. Advanced stats don’t show any distinct advantages here for the Wolverines running the football with Blake Corum and Hassan Haskins, ranking 52nd in Rush Play Success Rate vs. 43rd Defensive Success Rate on the Cornhuskers side. Michigan will continue to feed their two running backs, but we’re looking at a near 50-50 split between them. Solid plays given Michigan’s 70 percent run rate on the season – 4th in country – but don’t see them busting out in this spot on the road for any slate-breaking stats. Rumors surrounding Roman Wilson right now about a broken wrist so we’ll monitor that pregame if he’s dressed. Had a breakout day vs. Wisconsin with 6-81-0 on eight targets, and is the Wolverine’s fastest receiver. Priority remains the same here for me with Cornelius Johnson->Daylen Baldwin->Erick All->Mike Sainristil (if Wilson is out).
Nebraska:
Michigan’s running game saw plenty of headlines in the month of September, but Saturday’s matchup will feature the top two rushing offenses in the Big Ten. Nebraska had a season-high 427 yards on the ground against Northwestern last Saturday with seven rushing scores, putting the Cornhuskers at 20 on the season, which is good for second in the nation behind Air Force. Spearheading the attack is quarterback Adrian Martinez, who ran for a career-best three touchdowns against the Wildcats and is 15th in the country in total offense at 312.5 yards per game. Martinez has “gotten there” each week with his rushing ability, averaging nearly 30 FPPG but this is the best defense he’ll have faced to date in the Wolverines who are allowing just 16.3 FPPG to opposing QBs this season. May have my Maize and Blue glasses on right now, but the Wolverines are 27th in Rush Play Success Rate, 38th in Pass Play Success Rate and 9th in Points Per Opportunity allowed. I’m fading Martinez.
Redshirt freshman running back Rahmir Johnson has filled in admirably in the backfield due to injury over the last two weeks, averaging over five yards per attempt, and found paydirt twice last Saturday. Michigan is allowing just 3.31 yards per carry on the season and holding RB1s to just 6.1 FPPG this season. The advanced metric like the Nebraska offensive line despite some criticism and recent changes to the personnel, ranking 21st in Line Yards and 11th in Stuff Rate. I wouldn’t roster Johnson this week against the Michigan defense.
If the Wolverines give up chunk plays, it’s typically through the air. Nebraska didn’t need to take to the air much last week vs. the Wildcats but the rotation appears settled now with Oliver Martin now back in the lineup with he and Zavier Betts starting outside and Samori Toure in the slot. Looking back at Michigan’s performances this season, the two highest outputs this season against them have been from Washington’s Terrell Bynum and WMU’s Corey Crooms – both slot receivers. That favors Toure here.
Alabama @ Texas A&M
Point-Spread: Bama -18
O/U Total: 51
Weather: 81 degrees / 0% rain / 10 mph winds
Alabama:
I’ll typically take the running game of Alabama vs. any opponent, but this head-to-head is tough for me to decipher. Texas A&M has yet to give up a rushing touchdown thus far in SEC play and is giving up just 9.0 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season. That said, Colorado, Arkansas and Kent State were able to rush for more than 170+ yards against this defense. And with that said now, A&M ranks 13th in Rush Play Success Rate. Conflicting information! I probably like, not love, Brian Robinson Jr. this week now in a bellcow role after the season-ending injury news to Jase McClellan. One stat that might be telling here – A&M has trailed at the half in all three P5 matchups this season while Alabama has led by nearly 21 points in all three of theirs. Should the same happen Saturday, could we see 36 more carries from BRob like we did a week ago?
I view Bryce Young very similarly to Robinson this week, like but not love as the highest-priced QB on the slate. A&M is allowing just 17.3 FPPG to opposing QBs this season, rank ninth in PFF coverage grades and are 12th in Defensive Pass Play Success rate. Again, you trust the Tide offense to score points, but as I loved to say in the Main Slate writeup (@DaDeano)…”is the juice worth the squeeze?”
I was posed a question this week on the Discord whether a player should trade Tay Martin for both John Metchie and Jameson Williams? First glance, I’d be crazy not to want two Alabama receivers on my team. Second glance, Alabama doesn’t have a target hog ala DeVonta Smith last year as neither player has reached double-digit targets in a game all year to this point, with the leading TD getter being second-string tight end Cameron Latu. Metchie leads all receivers in targets, but I prefer Williams who has the edge in touchdowns (3) and a vastly superior aDOT of 16.1 compared to just 7.1 for the possession receiver. Will this be the week that Jahleel Billingsley produces after everyone and their moms was rostering him against Ole Miss? Targets on the upswing with 10 total in the last two games. Just 1.4 FPPG for opposing TEs against Texas A&M this season, but they haven’t faced any teams to date that utilize the position in the passing game. Slade Bolden continues to hold a slight edge in snaps over JoJo Earle in the slot, and had four targets vs. Ole Miss.
Texas A&M:
Hilarious that Zach Calzada is priced lower than Haynes King here. Perfect reflection of what to expect from him in this matchup. Also hilarious that one of Alabama’s beat writer predictions this week is that Isaiah Spiller will top 30 rushing yards against the Tide. His first two outings against Alabama have not fared well with 27 yards in 2019 and 25 last season. Alabama sits right above A&M in FPPG allowed to RB1s this season at just 8.9 and are 20th nationally in Rush Success Rate. Easy fade on DK, but his $6,400 salary on FD is enticing no matter how poor the matchup is. Same goes for Devon Achane who hasn’t seen double-digit carries since Week 1, but has actually been effective with his limited touches, averaging 6.9 YPC.
Complete blunt honesty here – I’m at the point where I don’t know, or don’t care, who is available at receiver for the Aggies. Ainias Smith is healthy and leading the team in targets with 31, and is cheap at $4,800. Strictly being used as a slot receiver this season with just five rushing attempts. Jalen Preston and Demond Demas are the other two starters on the outside currently, and will have to double-check the statuses of Chase Lane and Caleb Chapman pregame. Jalen Wydermyer was targeted often in last year’s contest between the two teams, finishing with eight catches for 82 yards. Had two touchdown receptions two years ago. Bama is allowing 8.9 FPPG to opposing TE1s this season so the position has had some success against them. Very limited upside with anyone in this group.