South Carolina @ Tennessee
Point-Spread: UT -10.5
O/U Total: 57
Weather: 74 degrees / 3% rain / 3 mph winds
South Carolina:
Not what South Carolina was hoping for with regards to the run game so far in 2021, averaging just 121 yards per game on the ground (103rd) and one single rushing touchdown all season long. They’d be far lower on the national ranking too if you took out the opener against Eastern Illinois where a third of the team’s rush yards occurred. Kevin Harris continues to pace the group the last three weeks, but production has been minimal, averaging under three yards a carry with zero scores. Harris continues to be a factor out of the backfield with 11 targets in the last three weeks. Minimal carries for the rest of the group behind Harris that really aren’t worth mentioning because this probably isn’t the week USC gets it turned around, facing a Tennessee defense that shut down Tyler Badie last week, and is ranked 4th in the SEC.
Luke Doty is interesting for me here at $5,500 because I believe South Carolina has to throw to win this game and has looked proficient in three games, completing 60 percent of his passes and just one interception. 12 sacks against him and the lack of explosive plays – just three passes of 20 yards or more – hurt his cause. Very surprised that the coaching staff isn’t taking advantage of Doty’s legs with just five carries total in three games, because he is a tremendous athlete. This Tennessee pass defense shouldn’t scare anyone, ranking 69th in Success Rate and allowing 23.1 FPPG to opposing QBs. Probably not starting him, but would rather spend down on Doty than roster Hooker for $2,400 more.
Josh Vann and Jalen Brooks continue to dominate the snap counts amongst South Carolina receivers, with the former being the most reliable with a pair of 100-yard receiving performances and a 21.4 YPC average. Brooks is right there near the top of USC receivers seeing the most playing time, with 10 of his 11 receptions coming in the last three weeks. Slot receiver Dakereon Joyner was the preseason darling, but has fallen off with just three targets in the last two games. Sits third among WRs in snaps. Tight ends have hurt Tennessee this year, allowing 8.5 FPPG to TE1s, but South Carolina uses three of them regularly with Jaheim Bell, Nick Muse and E.J. Jenkins who had a TD vs. Troy last weekend.
Tennessee:
Running yards won’t be as easy to come by this week – South Carolina ranks just 68th in the country – but anyone is better than Missouri at this point. Jabari Small remains on the game-week depth chart, and is officially questionable for this week, but tea leaves suggest he may not play this week as he continues to battle a shoulder injury. Extra motivation this week for Tiyon Evans who is from the South Carolina area, and looked good against Missouri with 156 yards and three scores on just 15 carries. This matchup does favor Evans and UT taking on a South Carolina defense that allows 17.1 FPPG to opposing RB1s, is 95th in Defensive Line Yards and 74th in Defensive Rush Play Success Rate. Depth chart lists Jaylen Wright as RB3, but would expect to see more of Len’Neth Whitehead who rushed for 76 yards on nine carries last week.
Josh Heupel made it clear this week, finally, that Hendon Hooker is QB1 moving forward. Hooker was extremely efficient vs. Missouri, completing 15-of-19 passes for 225 yards and three TDs while adding 80 yards and a score on the ground. This isn’t a great matchup, though, against a South Carolina defense that has forced nine interceptions already, has a better-than-anticipated defensive pass rush, and is allowing just 13.1 FPPG to opposing QB1s which is fifth-best in the country. Safe floor with Hooker because of his rushing abilities, but I’d say I disagree with his 17th-ranked projections on the site this week.
Significant developments during the Missouri game with regards to the WR rotations as JaVonta Payton, Cedric Tillman and Velus Jones dominated the snap counts with Jalin Hyatt falling back quite a bit, seeing just 20 snaps. Payton has touchdowns in three straight games. Tillman racked up 73 yards and a touchdown on four catches. Jones, who moved into the slot ahead of Hyatt, led the team with 7-79-1 on eight targets. That trio combined for 16 of the 19 targets vs. Mizzou so barring Hooker throwing it 30+ times against USC (he won’t), I think those are the only three we focus on with our lineups.
Oklahoma @ Texas
Point-Spread: Okla -3
O/U Total: 63.5
Weather: 85 degrees / 0% rain / 13 mph winds
Oklahoma:
Do we risk Spencer Rattler one more time? Texas is 99th in Defensive Pass EPA and 124th in Defensive Pass Play Success Rate, but are allowing just 17 FPPG to opposing QBs this season. Max Duggan held in check, Levi Lewis scored 20 fantasy points, and K.J. Jefferson was limited to just 13.2 points. Issues galore with Rattler this year, but downfield passing is dreadful, completing 3-of-12 passes that travel 20 yards or more. Looks to be some value here at running back with Kennedy Brooks being $300 cheaper than Eric Gray despite leading the Sooners in rushing last week with 91 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries. Our projections reflect as such this week with Brooks nearly doubling Gray’s output. Do I personally think this backfield is settled? Hell no. This is the Oklahoma offense we are talking about in 2021 – more surprises to come I’m sure. The Longhorns are 92nd in the country in rush defense and 98th in Rush Play Success Rate. Brooks should be in the pool of options for us this week. And then there’s the receivers which we’ve discussed at length already this season. Michael Woods led the team in targets for the second-straight week. Marvin Mims finally going to find the end-zone for the first time this season? Snap counts have been consistent the last three weeks and was second on the team in targets vs. Kansas State. Jadon Haselwood continues to see the most time on the field of any OU receiver for reasons that only Lincoln Riley can comprehend because the production isn’t there. He’s a full fade regardless of snap counts or pricing. Mario Williams is still around, with four or more targets in every game this season, but hasn’t found the end-zone in three weeks and his aDOT of 7.3 means he needs to be forcing missed tackles to be productive.
Texas:
My opinion as of now writing this on Thursday evening is that I’ll be fading Bijan Robinson at his steep price point on DK as there aren’t a ton of advantages for him with the matchups besides pure raw talent. Beyond Deuce Vaughn last week, Oklahoma has really done a good job at limiting opposing RB1s, including holding Leddie Brown to just seven fantasy points two weeks ago. The Sooners rank second in the country in rush defense (79.4 YPG) and third in yards per attempt (2.59). The Texas offensive line has done a good job this season, ranking 16th in Line Yards and 36th in Stuff Rate, but Oklahoma is equally as good on the other side of the ball. Volume should be there again for Bijan this week after hitting 40 total touches last week against TCU – he’s their best chance at an upset.
Will Saturday’s result fall on the arm of Casey Thompson who came back down to earth last week, throwing for just 142 yards and a TD. Third time in four games where Thompson carried the rock at least seven times which helps, and dual-threats have given the Sooners problems this season, allowing 27.7 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. Beating this Oklahoma defense is “easiest” through the air, ranking 83rd in yards allowed per game (241.4) and are 114th in Defensive Pass Play EPA. Quiet day from the Texas receivers last week, but saw much of the same with Xavier Worthy leading the way in targets (6) and the highest aDOT on the team (19.3). Jordan Whittington found success with 3-79-1, but came on just three targets and would still prefer the true FR of the two, especially considering pricing. Joshua Moore was second on the team with five targets vs. TCU but minimal yardage. Those three, along with Bijan, are probably the only pass-catchers of any relevance right now for Texas.
Arkansas @ Ole Miss
Point-Spread: Miss -5.5
O/U Total: 66.5
Weather: 80 degrees / 1% rain / 7 mph winds
Arkansas:
Think we need to give a long hard look at K.J. Jefferson this week at $6,900 as he’s our 18th highest-ranked QB per projections in CFF. Ole Miss is vastly improved on defense this season but still allowing 27.7 FPPG to opposing QBs this season. Jefferson had been banged up previously, but Sam Pittman said he’s 100 percent (or close to) and has been practicing all week. If we don’t want a piece of Jefferson, then look at the running backs where the Rebels are 12th in the SEC, allowing 154 yards per game, and were blundered by Brian Robinson Jr. last weekend. The Razorbacks have been getting the young guns more involved each week with Raheim Sanders and AJ Green, but Trelon Smith is still the alpha here, and has seen double-digit carries in every Arkansas contest that’s been competitive this year. Is 79 yards and a touchdown good enough for you at $5,300? Still stunned that we haven’t seen any involvement from Smith in the passing game with just two targets this season after having 32 a year ago. Projections love Treylon Burks this week (20 Fpts) as he has the highest target share of any WR on the main slate over the last three weeks (39%) by a significant margin. Ole Miss is 71st in Defensive Pass Play Success Rate, but have done a good job at limiting explosive plays this season. Burks will test that theory, and I’ll definitely want a good amount of shares in my lineups this week. Tyson Morris is the only other WR of note for the Razorbacks this season, seeing the second-most snaps behind Burks, but he’s a ghost on the field just like Jadon Haselwood.
Ole Miss:
Feels like Matt Corral is a fade here given his pricing. We have Malik Cunningham as the higher-projected QB this week and Brennan Armstrong is just a slot below Corral and $800 cheaper. Should mean lower ownership percentages, but juice worth the squeeze this week? The Razorbacks are fourth in the country, allowing just 11.5 FPPG to opposing QBs this season and sit second behind Georgia in yards allowed per game through the air. Jerrion Ealy is questionable this week after leaving last week’s matchup with Alabama due to a concussion. Henry Parrish, who led Ole Miss in rushing last week, would step into Ealy’s role as the starter with them possessing similar skillsets. Snoop Conner doesn’t see the field as much as Ealy or Parrish, but is second on the team behind Corral in rushing touchdowns and is the primary option in the red-zone. The Ole Miss offensive line is 8th in Line Yards created, but will be without their starting guard, facing a Razorbacks defense that is 38th in Rush Play Success Rate and is allowing just 13.3 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Don’t see a ton of upside there but Parrish would be the play if Ealy is out.
Receivers – it’s the same story as it was previously with Jonathan Mingo in the lineup, just different parts. Jadon Jackson started in place of Mingo and was tied for the team lead in targets (5) with both Braylon Sanders and Dontario Drummond. We did see more of a rotation with Dannis Jackson and Jahcour Pearson seeing their most playing time of the year, but the Top 3 are the primary options we need to be focusing on. Similar argument for Drummond as it was for Corral – juice worth the squeeze at his pricing? Jackson is certainly going to be a popular punt play at $3,600. Sanders did very little last week outside of his highlight-reel reception, and had a drop.
West Virginia @ Baylor
Point-Spread: Bay -2.5
O/U Total: 44.5
Weather: 82 degrees / 0% rain / 13 mph winds
West Virginia:
West Virginia writeups start and end with Leddie Brown, always and forever, good or bad. No other running back had a carry last week for WVU besides Brown, so our only real threat for vulturing is backup QB Garrett Greene who has five attempts in the last two games. Team total here isn’t great at 20.75 but Baylor can be had on the ground, allowing over 200 rushing yards in each of the last two weeks. Trouble is that Leddie is getting no support from his offensive line that is 105th in Line Yards and has averaged less than four yards a carry in each of the last two weeks. Love the volume for Jarret Doege as well, averaging 30 attempts per contest, but faces the 10th ranked pass defense in the country this week. The Bears are allowing just 16.2 FPPG this season to opposing QBs and not one has topped 20 fantasy points. Low ceiling option. Did Bryce Ford-Wheaton get injured last week or was he just ineffective? Shutout for the first time all year with just two targets. Isaiah Esdale made the most of his extended opportunity on the field, catching all six of his targets for 113 yards and a touchdown. He’s our highest-projected WR of the week for West Virginia but there’s definitely recency bias associated with that. Winston Wright continues to be the most consistent of the bunch, particularly over the last two games with 16 receptions on 18 targets. Sam James still leads the team with three receiving touchdowns and is third in targets. Nobody has more than 23 percent of the team’s target share and this is a bad matchup as it is.
Baylor:
This was the Gerry Bohanon we expected at the start of the year, completing 48 percent of his passes with just a single touchdown against Oklahoma State last week. This might be a potential bounce-back spot, though, against a West Virginia defense that is solid, but doesn’t really standout in any one particular area. The Mountaineers defense is most susceptible through the air, allowing 22 FPPG to opposing QBs and 65th in Pass Play Success Rate. I also like how Bohanon has seen a slight uptick in carries the last two weeks which aids his value. Tyquan Thornton continues to pace the group in targets with 33, and has at least three catches in every game this season. His 17.1 aDOT is always intriguing as a big-play threat. R.J. Sneed was shut out last week on just three targets. The semi-interesting storyline here was the emergence of Drew Estrada with 6-92-0 on a team-high nine targets. Has Josh Fleeks finally been kicked out of the Top 3 for good here as his snap counts have been declining for weeks now.
Tough sledding against this West Virginia defense on the ground where they’re allowing just 2.5 yards per carry on the year, 21st in Rush Play Success Rate and 13th in Defensive Points Per Opportunity. Baylor has the offensive line to combat that, but their numbers have fallen slightly since the start of the season – likely due to the schedule that featured inferior opponents. Against Iowa State and Oklahoma State, under four yards a carry as a team for Baylor. Half of Abram Smith’s yardage last week came on one run, though he did find the end-zone. Trestan Ebner had three targets and eight carries, yet didn’t accumulate a single yard of offense.
Maryland @ Ohio State
Point-Spread: OSU -21
O/U Total: 71
Weather: 73 degrees / 13% rain / 3 mph winds
Maryland:
We are just looking at Taulia Tagovailoa on DraftKings this week as he’s severely priced down after last week’s debacle. Unsure why the discrepancy between DK and FD here. Yes, the Iowa performance was a disaster, but this is an Ohio State defense that allows 251 yards a game through the air, has already given up two 30-point fantasy performances to Anthony Brown and Davis Brin this season, none of whom are any better than Tagovailoa. If there is an o/u prop, though, on Tagovailoa’s number of interceptions this weekend, take the over because this Ohio State secondary has forced all seven of their INTs in the last three games. If you don’t want to risk Tagovailoa at QB/SFlex, his receivers are priced down to where we need to consider them, particularly now that Dontay Demus is out for the season, limiting the target tree.
For GPPs, everyone is going to be on Rakim Jarrett and Jeshaun Jones this week due to their salaries. From a production standpoint, Jarrett has been relatively quiet the last three weeks, averaging just 10 fantasy points per game, but found the end-zone twice in three games. Jarrett accounts for around 20 percent of the team’s target share, and another 20 percent will be reproportioned now with Demus out. Jones is the likely candidate here, sitting third on the team in targets, and should easily pay off his salary at $3,500 if he gets that full share that belonged to Demus. I suspect we’ll also see more of the tight ends with Chigoziem Okonkwo and Corey Dyches who had four targets a piece last week. If looking for an extreme pivot, Darryl Jones will start opposite Jones (Jeshaun) on the outside and sits fourth among WRs in targets for the Terps.
The Ohio State run defense looks to have cleaned up a lot of their issues from the start of the season, allowing just 2.7 yards per carry over the last three weeks. The Buckeyes are 17th in Defensive Rush Play Success Rate, so I’m not banking on Tayon Fleet-Davis finding a ton of running room this week. He remains as a potential option because of his pass-catching abilities – 15 receptions on 16 targets – but low-upside play this week.
Ohio State:
So much for quarterback controversy at Ohio State after C.J. Stroud’s masterful performance against a good Rutgers defense, topping 37 fantasy points with five touchdown passes, zero interceptions and a 74 percent completion rate. Projections like him again this week, forecasting 300+ yards and 3.5 touchdowns, but the Maryland pass defense has been up to the task for much of the year. Allowing just 52.4 percent completion rate to opposing QBs, have given up just five TDs all season through the air and are 24th in Pass Defense Success Rate. With so much focus on the UL/UVA game and their QBs, I think Stroud could be a decent pivot for GPPs this week at a lower ownership rate.
The Terps are middle of the pack at defending the run, sitting seventh in the Big Ten, limiting opponents to just 3.38 yards per carry. Maryland is allowing 18.1 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season, much do to with both Leddie Brown and Tyler Goodson having receiving touchdowns against them. Sounds like a matchup where an all-around talent like TreVeyon Henderson can still succeed right? Henderson is g2g this week after seeing limited carries vs. Rutgers, per Ryan Day. Ohio State holds the edge here on the advanced stats front, ranking fourth in Line Yards and sixth in Rush Play Success Rate. Not sure what’s going on with Miyan Williams right now as he didn’t see a touch vs. Rutgers, with Master Teague getting the No. 2 reps the last three games, and is averaging well over five yards a carry. If this turned into a blowout, Teague could have some value at $4,200.
Maryland’s weak spot in the secondary is their slot cornerback, per PFF, so maybe this is a good day to roll out Jaxon Smith-Njigba in our lineups? Clearly established himself as the WR3 with 18 percent of the target share, more than any third pass-catcher for Ohio State had a year ago, and has at least two receptions in every game thus far. Garrett Wilson continues to be steady Eddie, accounting for 29 percent of the target share and at least 17 fantasy points in every game this season. Chris Olave bounced back from the two-game disappearance with 119 yards and two TDs vs. Rutgers. All three are in play.
Michigan State @ Rutgers
Point-Spread: MSU -5.5
O/U Total: 51
Weather: 68 degrees / 26% rain / 12 mph winds
Michigan State:
I want to try and cover these teams extensively, but I think we all know the major players here for Michigan State. For those questioning why Kenneth Walker is lower on our projections this week, the Rutgers run defense plays a part, allowing just 3.77 yards per game on the season. The Knights showed well against Michigan, limiting their running backs to under three yards per attempt, but MSU has the passing game with Payton Thorne and Co. to force Rutgers away from loading the box. Matchup does favor Walker here from an advanced stats standpoint as the Spartans are 17th in Line Yards and fifth in Rush Play Success Rate. Workload shouldn’t be an issue either as Walker is 14th in the country, averaging 20 carries a game. Centralized passing game for MSU with Jalen Nailor, Jayden Reed and Tre Mosley accounting for 68 percent of the target share. We saw last week that the Rutgers pass defense through the first month is not reflective of how good they are, allowing five passing TDs to CJ Stroud. The Knights rank 33rd overall in yards allowed through the air and 18th in Pass Defense Success Rate, but that happens when you face Cade McNamara, Tommy DeVito and D’Wan Mathis.
Rutgers:
So, Noah Vedral is interesting this week – a statement I’d never thought I would’ve said ever. Am I advising starting him? No. But, Michigan State is allowing over 32 fantasy points per game this season to opposing QBs and are 122nd in the country in pass defense. A lot of this is due to game script as MSU has jumped out ahead of their opponents in every game this season, forcing them to throw. Well, here is MSU again as a 5.5-point favorite. I just wish Vedral was a bit cheaper here. The major storyline this week for the Knights is WR1 Bo Melton’s status being up in the air due to a shoulder injury. Should Melton sit, our focus turns to Aron Cruickshank and Brandon Sanders who combined for 13 targets last week. Similar to a situation like Maryland too, I think we can play either of these receivers (provided Melton is out) and not pair with Vedral. Isaiah Washington and Shameen Jones would be the other receivers in the rotation, but not as much a priority to us. Minimal interest here in Isaih Pacheco against an MSU defense that is allowing just 12.2 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season and limiting opponents to 3.22 yards per carry.
Virginia @ Louisville
Point-Spread: UL -2.5
O/U Total: 69.5
Weather: 78 degrees / 5% rain / 6 mph winds
Virginia:
Game of the week for fantasy players. Fire up Brennan Armstrong everywhere against a UL defense that is giving up the fifth most fantasy points to QB1s in the country. Simple as that. For a guy averaging 44 pass attempts per game on the year, his numbers have grown in ACC play, averaging over 50 attempts. Minimal interest in the running backs with Wayne Taulapapa and Mike Hollins sharing the load vs. Miami, though UVA should find success against the 91st ranked run defense that’s allowed 175 rushing yards in four of the five games played this year. Hollins was utilized in the passing game last week with six targets which adds some to his value. Dontavyion Wicks is the top pairing with Armstrong as he’s now second in the ACC in receiving yards with 535 and has found the end-zone in the last four games. aDOT of 20.3 is tops on the team. Only issue with Wicks, that gets minimalized by the sheer volume at which UVA passes the ball, is his 18 percent target share as Armstrong will spread the wealth between him, Billy Kemp, Ra’Shaun Henry and “football players” Keytaon Thompson and Jacob Rodriguez. DK has finally fixed Thompson’s position now that he is listed as a WR and not a QB, but we need to see if Jelani Woods will be available this week because his nine targets vs. Miami were boosted by Woods not being in the lineup.
Louisville:
Malik Cunningham is likely to have the highest ownership on the slate this week as he’s now accounted for 17 total touchdowns, and at least two rushing scores in every contest this season. UVA is allowing 31.9 FPPG to opposing QBs on the year, and Cunningham had a great deal of success against this same defense a year ago with 161 passing yards and 197 on the ground. Tough to see a situation where Cunningham doesn’t reach value this week unless UL finds success on the ground with Jalen Mitchell to take some of the pressure off the star QB. And running backs have certainly succeeded against the Hoos this year, averaging 21.6 FPPG. UVA has not shown the ability to stop the run this season, allowing over five yards a carry over the last four games with eight rushing TDs. Mitchell is averaging right around 15 carries a game, but has now fumbled in each of the last two weeks, leading to some increased playing time for true FR Trevion Cooley who had 11 attempts vs. Wake Forest. I’ll do some extra digging here, because Mitchell is staring us in the face at $4,600 which makes him very appealing against this defense. But there are starting to be calls for more opportunities for the true FR.
Complete crapshoot as to which UL receiver will hit in a given week with Jordan Watkins, Justin Marshall, Tyler Harrell, Josh Johnson and Ahmari Huggins-Bruce rotating snaps. Of course it was the two players, Huggins-Bruce and Harrell, who had the least amount of playing time last week that wound up finding the end-zone. Watkins and Marshall were tied for the team lead with five targets. UVA is allowing just 6.8 FPPG to TE1s this season, but gave up double-digit points to Blake Whiteheart and Garrett Wahlston (who?). Marshon Ford leads the Cardinals in targets this season, and has recorded at least four receptions in 4-of-5 games played.
Georgia @ Auburn
Point-Spread: UGA -15.5
O/U Total: 47
Weather: 82 degrees / 3% rain / 6 mph winds
Georgia:
Granted, it was a blowout, but I think we saw the recipe for success with the Georgia offense now in SEC play with establishing the run. It’s in Kirby Smart’s DNA, especially with a backup QB because it sounds as though Stetson Bennett will get the start this week, facing an Auburn defense that is allowing 21.3 FPPG to opposing QBs. We’ve outlined a few cheaper options at QB in this slate so I think we fade Bennett here. When UGA has found success this year, it’s been with the big play and Auburn is 7th in the country in allowing explosive plays through the air this season. Sounds like Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint and Arian Smith will both make the trip this week, adding to the confusion of which UGA receivers to target on a weekly basis. Best answer to give is none. Ladd McConkey and Kearis Jackson are splitting reps in the slot. Jermaine Burton hasn’t had more than four targets in a game all year, though he has a 100 percent conversion rate with passes directed his way. I think we look at Brock Bowers here as the top play with Auburn struggling to defend opposing tight ends this season, allowing 12.4 FPPG with four different TEs topping nine fantasy points against the Tigers this season. Not sure we want any part of the UGA backfield as four different running backs saw 10+ carries vs. Arkansas. Biggest positive for the Dawgs is that the offensive line is starting to round into form, now up to 39th in Line Yards. Auburn is allowing just 2.56 yards per game on the ground this season.
Auburn:
Can I cheat here and say full-team fade? We aren’t starting Bo Nix against the team that gives up the least amount of fantasy points to opposing QBs in the country. As good as Tank Bigsby is, though there have been murmurs he isn’t 100 percent healthy, we aren’t starting him against the No. 1 rush defense in the country. UGA also has allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs in the nation this season. Seeing as that Nix will probably have to take to the air more this week, maybe we have some interest in the receivers. Demetris Robertson revenge game? Led the Tigers in receptions and targets last week vs. LSU. Kobe Hudson had just one catch on seven targets last week, but now has six targets in each of the last three games. Shedrick Jackson played the most snaps of any UA receiver last week. Maybe UGA forgets about tight end John Samuel Shenker who has played a prominent role in the offense the last three weeks with 18 of his 24 targets coming in that span? Full-team fade.
Boise State @ BYU
Point-Spread: BYU -5.5
O/U Total: 57.5
Weather: 53 degrees / 51% rain / 6 mph winds
Boise State:
I’m in complete fade mode this season of the Boise State ground game because the system isn’t working and the offensive line is dreadful. 123rd in Stuff Rate, 115th in Line Yards, 124th in Second Level Yards, 90th in Rush Play Success Rate. BYU’s rush defense is penetrable, ranking 80th in Defensive Rush Play Success Rate and 124 yards per game on the ground, but I simply don’t trust this offense to net anything worthwhile. George Holani looks to be doubtful at the moment, so the rushing volume would likely center around Cyrus Habibi-Likio who carried it 10 times for 46 yards last week vs. Nevada. And the King of Vulturing must watch his back with Andrew Van Buren next in line to the throne in that category.
Again, I like this spot for Hank Bachmeier as a potential salary-saver at $7k here with Boise State likely going full Air Raid for the rest of the season. Bachmeier had a great performance against Nevada with 388 yards and four touchdowns, completing 72 percent of his passes on 47 attempts. Expect his volume to be near 40 for the remainder of the season. His upside is capped because he provides negative points on the ground, but a really high floor at his cost. Helps to have to elite receivers at his disposal in Khalil Shakir and Stefan Cobbs who combined for 14 receptions on 17 targets with three touchdowns last week. With Cobbs in the lineup, does that put a cap on Shakir’s value? BYU has been better at defending the pass this season, but are medicore in every sense of the word in that category, ranking 80th in Defensive Pass Play Success Rate and 98th overall. Have allowed just four passing touchdowns this season compared to six interceptions, but have not played a single relevant fantasy quarterback all year long. I wish Octavius Evans was priced down a bit instead of $4,900 because he might be a strong pivot play with how much Boise State is going to throw the ball. Season-high seven targets last week. Tight end Kurt Rafdal saw season-highs in snaps and targets (5) vs. Nevada.
BYU:
Projections like Jaren Hall this week at 25 FPts, but worth the $8,100 salary? Hall’s been nothing but consistent as a first-year starter leading up to the injury, completing 60 percent of his throws with seven passing touchdowns. Provides a solid floor, averaging seven rushing attempts per game, but I don’t love the matchup as Boise State has succeeded at defending the pass outside of their Week 1 performance against UCF. The Broncos allow just 19.1 FPPG to opposing QBs, are 38th in Defensive Pass Play Success Rate and 17th in PFF coverage grades. I don’t see him having high ownership on the slate with all the options available to us on both sides of the cost spectrum. That probably means I’m less inclined to have interest in the BYU receivers where we’re seeing a split between Gunner Romney, Puka Nacua and Neil Pau’u. I don’t see any obvious separators to differentiate the value between the three outside of our projections which side with Romney. All three are projected at 10+ points this week. Isaac Rex is averaging just three targets a game, down significantly from a year ago, but always a chance he finds his way into the end-zone.
If playing anyone on the BYU side, it would be Tyler Allgeier who has emerged as the work horse, averaging 20+ carries a game, taking on a Boise State defense that is allowing a whopping 23.4 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season. Credit to Allgeier too because the offensive line isn’t providing a ton of room, ranking 87th in Line Yards and 115th in Stuff Rate.
Wake Forest @ Syracuse
Point-Spread: WF -6
O/U Total: 57.5
Weather: 69 degrees / 21% rain / 10 mph winds
Wake Forest:
Full-fade of the Wake Forest running backs here in a complete timeshare between Christian Beal-Smith, Justice Ellison and Christian Turner. Syracuse is allowing just 3.2 yards per carry on the season and allowing just 9.7 FPPG to opposing running backs. Ellison looks to be trending upward amongst the group, but is now priced up as well at $5,200. There aren’t any statistical edges here between the Wake Forest offensive line and Cuse front seven, and the three-way split here means very little upside. We’ve seen an improved Sam Hartman this year, completing 64 percent of his passes and has cut down on the turnovers with just two interceptions. Doesn’t make a ton of sense to play him this week with cheaper (and better) options at QB as Hartman hits the road against a really good pass defense that is allowing 167 yards per game through the air. The Cuse are 30th in Pass Play Success Rate and 12th in PFF coverage grades. I’ll be curious if that continues because it helps to achieve those stats when facing Jordan Travis, Noah Vedral and Kurtis Rourke. Syracuse must be keeping everything in front of them and allowing a lot of underneath routes because they’re allowing a 73 percent completion rate.
We know the top three options at receiver with Jaquarii Roberson, Taylor Morin and A.T. Perry who accounted for 25 of the 37 targets last week vs. FSU. Comes as a bit of a surprise to me, but it’s Perry with the shortest aDOT of the three in the last two weeks, so he might be the smart pivot away from Roberson if WF does attempt more passes underneath. All three are viable options in any given week, regardless of the opponent.
Syracuse:
Hmm, I take back what I said about Malik Cunningham being the highest-owned player of the slate. Why is Garrett Shrader just $6,700 coming off a 43-point performance last week against Florida State? Dino Babers said it himself last week coming into the FSU game – “we’re going to run it until someone can stop us.” The Seminoles couldn’t. Can Wake Forest? The Deacons were limiting opponents to under four yards a carry until last week when Louisville ran up 208 yards on them. While the WF defense has been improved in 2021, they’ve allowed 80 fantasy points the last two weeks to Cunningham and Brennan Armstrong. Really like the floor here that Shrader provides with two rushing TDs in each of the last three games, and 16 carries against both Liberty and FSU. If we get just one passing TD out of him, along with that rushing floor, we are sitting pretty at that cost.
It has been a struggle for running backs to get much of anything going against the WF defense, averaging just 11.2 FPPG. We know the volume will be there for RB1 Sean Tucker, averaging north of 20 carries a game with four 100-yard rushing performances. How effective can he be on Saturday? It’s not as though the Cuse offensive line has been that good, ranking 108th in Line Yards and 94th in Stuff Rate. All this to say I’d rather take my chances this week with Shrader than Tucker if choosing between the two. Just two players of interest in the Syracuse passing game with Courtney Jackson now assuming the coveted slot role with the transfer announcement of Taj Harris, and outside receiver Anthony Queeley. Jackson had a season-high six receptions on seven targets last week. Queeley tied a season-high with six targets and had a receiving touchdown.
Wisconsin @ Illinois
Point-Spread: Wis -11
O/U Total: 42
Weather: 81 degrees / 5% rain / 12 mph winds
Wisconsin:
Sounds like both Graham Mertz and tight end Jake Ferguson will play this week after being participants in practice. Mertz started to show some signs last week with back-to-back scoring drives to end the half vs. Michigan prior to the injury. Strong likelihood I don’t consider Mertz at all this week, but want to throw this out there. Illinois is allowing 29.9 FPPG to opposing QBs this season with five performances of 23 fantasy points or more. Top three receivers continue to be Kendric Pryor, Danny Davis and Chimere Dike with very little separating the three in terms of preference.
Running back here is intriguing because true freshman Braelon Allen ($3k) saw some reps at the end of the Michigan game and looked good. As a commenter on the Discord stated, Wisconsin should eventually turn over the reins to the FR running back at some point, just a matter of when/if Paul Chryst decides to do so. Unless we get any clear indication, I’m not risking it, but the threat of that happening is out there. The likely result this week is that we continue to see a 60-40 split between Chez Mellusi and Jalen Berger to see if any momentum can be gained against an inferior opponent. The Illinois defense is allowing just 12.8 FPPG to opposing RB1s here so this isn’t the greatest of matchups. Until Wisconsin proves they can run the ball efficiently, I probably avoid altogether.
Illinois:
As always, we are crunched for time at week’s end, so we’ll be skipping Illinois for the most part with one of the lowest implied totals of the slate. Brandon Peters is not even in our vicinity of possibilities. Chase Brown’s monster rushing day last week vs. Charlotte is good for his value moving forward, but highly unlikely he finds the same amount of success against a Top 5 rush defense in Wisconsin unless that Badgers have full-on quit this season already. Isaiah Williams and Casey Washington remain the top two options in the passing game, but volume/production have been minimal in the last three weeks. Safe bet there aren’t any slate-breakers here.
Penn State @ Iowa
Point-Spread: PSU -1.5
O/U Total: 41
Weather: 79 degrees / 5% rain / 14 mph winds
Penn State:
We can skip right over the running backs here against the No. 10 rush defense in the country. There was some positive momentum against Indiana last week when Keyvone Lee entered the lineup, but I’m not trusting either him or Noah Cain in this matchup. Iowa is fifth in the country in fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs and Penn State’s offensive line isn’t generating any push this season. Full fade there.
Penn State will need to throw to win this game. Sean Clifford isn’t cheap here and the implied 20.5-point total dictates we fade him here. Iowa is currently 10th in the country in fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs this season. The biggest determination we need to make is whether or not Jahan Dotson is in play for us at $7,300. He should have an athletic advantage over the Iowa DBs as Dontay Demus showed us a week ago prior to the injury. Volume is right where we want it at too, averaging nearly 10 targets a game and at least one TD every week. Tough considering Iowa hasn’t allowed a team to throw for more than 200 yards all season. Parker Washington isn’t far off from Dotson, averaging seven targets per contest. WR3 Keandre Lambert-Smith is averaging five targets per game.
Iowa:
Better actual football game here than one that will yield fantasy output. Consider last week the one-off performance that Spencer Petras is of any relevance to us from a fantasy aspect. Penn State is second in the country in fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs. Very little upside here even if Petras delivers an efficient performance. Avoid. Sam LaPorta is the only punt play I’d consider for Iowa pass-catchers as they’re involving more and more WRs in the rotation with Tyrone Tracy Jr. not having the impact this season that was anticipated. LaPorta is averaging seven targets per game this season, and leads the team with 22 receptions. The Nittany Lions are allowing over 11 FPPG to opposing tight ends, with Jake Ferguson, Peyton Hendershot and John Samuel Shenker all achieving double-digit fantasy points.
The true decision here comes down to whether or not we play Tyler Goodson at a manageable $6,700. Iowa rides their workhorse running back in big games such as this, and is already averaging 20 carries and three targets a game so far. The issue is Iowa’s offensive line is not what it used to be a year ago, ranking 122nd in Line Yards and 127th in Stuff Rate. Penn State is allowing 15.3 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season, but are 42nd in Defensive Rush Play Success Rate and 30th overall in rush defense. Volume will be there. Will the production?