Oklahoma @ Texas
Point-Spread: Okla -3
O/U Total: 63.5
Weather: 85 degrees / 0% rain / 13 mph winds
Oklahoma:
Do we risk Spencer Rattler one more time? Texas is 99th in Defensive Pass EPA and 124th in Defensive Pass Play Success Rate, but are allowing just 17 FPPG to opposing QBs this season. Max Duggan held in check, Levi Lewis scored 20 fantasy points, and K.J. Jefferson was limited to just 13.2 points. Issues galore with Rattler this year, but downfield passing is dreadful, completing 3-of-12 passes that travel 20 yards or more. Looks to be some value here at running back with Kennedy Brooks being $300 cheaper than Eric Gray despite leading the Sooners in rushing last week with 91 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries. Our projections reflect as such this week with Brooks nearly doubling Gray’s output. Do I personally think this backfield is settled? Hell no. This is the Oklahoma offense we are talking about in 2021 – more surprises to come I’m sure. The Longhorns are 92nd in the country in rush defense and 98th in Rush Play Success Rate. Brooks should be in the pool of options for us this week. And then there’s the receivers which we’ve discussed at length already this season. Michael Woods led the team in targets for the second-straight week. Marvin Mims finally going to find the end-zone for the first time this season? Snap counts have been consistent the last three weeks and was second on the team in targets vs. Kansas State. Jadon Haselwood continues to see the most time on the field of any OU receiver for reasons that only Lincoln Riley can comprehend because the production isn’t there. He’s a full fade regardless of snap counts or pricing. Mario Williams is still around, with four or more targets in every game this season, but hasn’t found the end-zone in three weeks and his aDOT of 7.3 means he needs to be forcing missed tackles to be productive.
Texas:
My opinion as of now writing this on Thursday evening is that I’ll be fading Bijan Robinson at his steep price point on DK as there aren’t a ton of advantages for him with the matchups besides pure raw talent. Beyond Deuce Vaughn last week, Oklahoma has really done a good job at limiting opposing RB1s, including holding Leddie Brown to just seven fantasy points two weeks ago. The Sooners rank second in the country in rush defense (79.4 YPG) and third in yards per attempt (2.59). The Texas offensive line has done a good job this season, ranking 16th in Line Yards and 36th in Stuff Rate, but Oklahoma is equally as good on the other side of the ball. Volume should be there again for Bijan this week after hitting 40 total touches last week against TCU – he’s their best chance at an upset.
Will Saturday’s result fall on the arm of Casey Thompson who came back down to earth last week, throwing for just 142 yards and a TD. Third time in four games where Thompson carried the rock at least seven times which helps, and dual-threats have given the Sooners problems this season, allowing 27.7 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. Beating this Oklahoma defense is “easiest” through the air, ranking 83rd in yards allowed per game (241.4) and are 114th in Defensive Pass Play EPA. Quiet day from the Texas receivers last week, but saw much of the same with Xavier Worthy leading the way in targets (6) and the highest aDOT on the team (19.3). Jordan Whittington found success with 3-79-1, but came on just three targets and would still prefer the true FR of the two, especially considering pricing. Joshua Moore was second on the team with five targets vs. TCU but minimal yardage. Those three, along with Bijan, are probably the only pass-catchers of any relevance right now for Texas.
Maryland @ Ohio State
Point-Spread: OSU -21
O/U Total: 71
Weather: 73 degrees / 13% rain / 3 mph winds
Maryland:
We are just looking at Taulia Tagovailoa on DraftKings this week as he’s severely priced down after last week’s debacle. Unsure why the discrepancy between DK and FD here. Yes, the Iowa performance was a disaster, but this is an Ohio State defense that allows 251 yards a game through the air, has already given up two 30-point fantasy performances to Anthony Brown and Davis Brin this season, none of whom are any better than Tagovailoa. If there is an o/u prop, though, on Tagovailoa’s number of interceptions this weekend, take the over because this Ohio State secondary has forced all seven of their INTs in the last three games. If you don’t want to risk Tagovailoa at QB/SFlex, his receivers are priced down to where we need to consider them, particularly now that Dontay Demus is out for the season, limiting the target tree.
For GPPs, everyone is going to be on Rakim Jarrett and Jeshaun Jones this week due to their salaries. From a production standpoint, Jarrett has been relatively quiet the last three weeks, averaging just 10 fantasy points per game, but found the end-zone twice in three games. Jarrett accounts for around 20 percent of the team’s target share, and another 20 percent will be reproportioned now with Demus out. Jones is the likely candidate here, sitting third on the team in targets, and should easily pay off his salary at $3,500 if he gets that full share that belonged to Demus. I suspect we’ll also see more of the tight ends with Chigoziem Okonkwo and Corey Dyches who had four targets a piece last week. If looking for an extreme pivot, Darryl Jones will start opposite Jones (Jeshaun) on the outside and sits fourth among WRs in targets for the Terps.
The Ohio State run defense looks to have cleaned up a lot of their issues from the start of the season, allowing just 2.7 yards per carry over the last three weeks. The Buckeyes are 17th in Defensive Rush Play Success Rate, so I’m not banking on Tayon Fleet-Davis finding a ton of running room this week. He remains as a potential option because of his pass-catching abilities – 15 receptions on 16 targets – but low-upside play this week.
Ohio State:
So much for quarterback controversy at Ohio State after C.J. Stroud’s masterful performance against a good Rutgers defense, topping 37 fantasy points with five touchdown passes, zero interceptions and a 74 percent completion rate. Projections like him again this week, forecasting 300+ yards and 3.5 touchdowns, but the Maryland pass defense has been up to the task for much of the year. Allowing just 52.4 percent completion rate to opposing QBs, have given up just five TDs all season through the air and are 24th in Pass Defense Success Rate. With so much focus on the UL/UVA game and their QBs, I think Stroud could be a decent pivot for GPPs this week at a lower ownership rate.
The Terps are middle of the pack at defending the run, sitting seventh in the Big Ten, limiting opponents to just 3.38 yards per carry. Maryland is allowing 18.1 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season, much do to with both Leddie Brown and Tyler Goodson having receiving touchdowns against them. Sounds like a matchup where an all-around talent like TreVeyon Henderson can still succeed right? Henderson is g2g this week after seeing limited carries vs. Rutgers, per Ryan Day. Ohio State holds the edge here on the advanced stats front, ranking fourth in Line Yards and sixth in Rush Play Success Rate. Not sure what’s going on with Miyan Williams right now as he didn’t see a touch vs. Rutgers, with Master Teague getting the No. 2 reps the last three games, and is averaging well over five yards a carry. If this turned into a blowout, Teague could have some value at $4,200.
Maryland’s weak spot in the secondary is their slot cornerback, per PFF, so maybe this is a good day to roll out Jaxon Smith-Njigba in our lineups? Clearly established himself as the WR3 with 18 percent of the target share, more than any third pass-catcher for Ohio State had a year ago, and has at least two receptions in every game thus far. Garrett Wilson continues to be steady Eddie, accounting for 29 percent of the target share and at least 17 fantasy points in every game this season. Chris Olave bounced back from the two-game disappearance with 119 yards and two TDs vs. Rutgers. All three are in play.
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