UNLV vs. Wyoming
- Point-Spread: UNLV -3.5
- O/U Total: 51.5
- Implied Score: UNLV 27.5 – Wyo 24
- Weather: 52 degrees / 76% rain / 13 mph winds
UNLV:
Top Play(s) – WR Jaden Bradley ($5,000) Bradley has maintained his status as UNLV’s WR1, scoring 20 or more fantasy points in three of four games this season. His 27 targets are more than double the number of the next closest UNLV receiver. WRs have found success this season against this Wyoming secondary, namely Colorado’s Omarion Miller (6-88-1) and Utah’s Ryan Davis (10-91-0).
Fade – WR JoJo Earle ($4,100) The former Alabama and TCU transfer continues to start for the Rebels, but his playing time has fluctuated this season, and his impacts have been minimal, with just one performance of more than 20 yards receiving. Against Miami (Ohio) in Week 4, there were four UNLV receivers who were on the field more than Earle, three of which have a cheaper salary.
Bargain Bin – WR Troy Omerie ($4,000) Omerie has been active the last two games, catching a touchdown in Week 2 vs. UCLA, followed by 69 yards on six targets in the win over Miami (Ohio). WR DaeDae Reynolds ($3,100) was also targeted six times in Week 4. Low-cost, but low-priority options for the Rebels as Jaden Bradley is the clear-cut WR1.
Pivot Play – RB Keyvone Lee ($5,000) Jai’Den Thomas popped up on the Thursday injury report, listed as questionable for Saturday night’s matchup. Lee, a former Mississippi State and Penn State transfer, has scored a touchdown in each of the last two games, and would get the start if Thomas were to be out or limited. Wyoming is 10th in the MWC in yards allowed per game on the ground, and 103rd nationally in rush D success rate.
Best of the Rest – QB Anthony Colandrea ($7,400) A 23-point projection at this salary puts Colandrea in play as an option and could shoulder a bigger load as a runner if Jai’Den Thomas does not play. The one concern would be the weather, where the temps could drop as low as 35 degrees at night with possible rain. Colandrea is used to UNLV’s indoor stadium and 90-degree temperatures with the Rebels. We could see a lower scoring affair on Saturday.
Injury Notes – RB Jai’Den Thomas (questionable)
Wyoming:
Top Play(s) – WR Chris Durr Jr. ($4,800) When’s the last time Wyoming of all teams has a legitimate target hog? Tanner Gentry back in 2016? The sophomore wideout has 32% of the team’s target share and 40% of Wyoming’s receiving yards this season, finding the end-zone in three of four games. UNLV is poor on the back end, allowing 275 YPG through the air which is 124th in the country.
Fade – QB Kaden Anderson ($6,400) $7.4k is the lowest we’re willing to spend at the quarterback position on this slate, and we’ll find value elsewhere. Anderson has failed to throw more than 200 yards passing in three of four games this season.
Bargain Bin – TE John Michael Gyllenborg ($4,300) JMG remains questionable, but the tea leaves are pointing to the star tight end returning for Saturday’s contest. With no legitimate WR2 option emerging behind Chris Durr, Gyllenborg will be the second read in the passing game for the Cowboys.
Pivot Play – RB Samuel “Tote” Harris ($6,400) The Cowboys look like they may have found the future at running back in the freshman Harris who rushed for 123 yards on 18 attempts in the loss to Colorado. That’s now three straight games where Harris has averaged over six yards per attempt. UNLV is 113th in rush D success rate this season, allowing 5.44 YPC. It’s arguable that Harris is Wyoming’s top play and not Durr.
Injury Notes – TE John Michael Gyllenborg (questionable)
Texas Tech vs. Houston
- Point-Spread: TT -12.5
- O/U Total: 50.5
- Implied Score: TT 31.5 – Hou 19
- Weather: 85 degrees / 13% rain / 10 mph winds
Texas Tech:
Top Play(s) – RB Cameron Dickey ($6,300) or RB J’Koby Williams ($6,100) Dickey isn’t the most explosive running back but continues to find the end-zone with six rushing touchdowns in four games, accounting for at least one score in every game. Williams has seen double-digit rushing attempts in each of the last two games and has been explosive as a pass-catcher with over 180 yards in the last two games. Houston is 84th in rush D success rate.
Fade – QB Behren Morton ($7,900) Would rather spend up a few hundred bucks to roster Jalon Daniels or one of the top-end quarterbacks than Morton who only projects for 19 fantasy points. Houston is second in the B12 in yards allowed per game through the air and giving up just 12.5 FPPG to quarterbacks.
Bargain Bin – WR Caleb Douglas ($4,200) or WR Coy Eakin ($4,300) Douglas hasn’t been the WR1 some anticipated him to be, but is on the field a ton, playing 97% of the snaps last time out vs. Utah. Eakin was quiet against the Utes but caught a touchdown in each of the first three games to start the year. It’s a game of roulette trying to guess which Tech receiver will pop in a given week, but these salaries are too cheap. I’d mix both in multiple lineups.
Pivot Play – WR Reggie Virgil ($5,400) Numbers aren’t that dissimilar from the two receivers listed above, but Virgil is tied for the team lead in touchdowns (4) and second behind Caleb Douglas on the team in routes run. He’ll see less ownership than the other two because of pricing.
Best of the Rest – TE Terrance Carter Jr. ($5,400) Carter is an option, but not a priority. Tied for team lead in touchdowns (4), but Houston is only giving up 4.0 FPPG to the tight end position this season.
Injury Notes – n/a
Houston:
Top Play(s) – TE Tanner Koziol ($4,600) Figuring Houston will have to throw the ball more than expected on Saturday, Koziol figures to see plenty of action, leading the team in receptions (23), targets (27) and touchdowns (2). Texas Tech has struggled to defend the tight end position so far, allowing 13.2 FPPG to the position.
Fade – RB Dean Connors ($7,200) Texas Tech is the No. 1 run defense in the B12, allowing just 56 yards per game on the ground, which is also second-best in the entire country. Connors is seeing heavier volume with injuries at running back for the Cougars, but the only time he averaged more than 4.0 YPC was in Week 2 against Rice. If Connors is in the winning lineup, it’s because he’ll get thrown a bunch of passes as a receiver, but because he’s churning yards out on the ground.
Bargain Bin – WR Amare Thomas ($3,300) Don’t see many paths to Houston finding much success on the ground this week, and Thomas is coming off a season-best performance with 104 yards and six catches on nine targets vs. Oregon State. Thomas is underpriced here.
Pivot Play – WR Stephon Johnson ($4,000) Not sure why Johnson is priced above Amare Thomas, but he’s the third option in the passing game beyond Thomas and Tanner Koziol. Johnson is third on the team in targets (17) and first in routes run. Johnson, Thomas and Koziol account for 82% of the team’s receiving production.
Best of the Rest – QB Conner Weigman ($7,000) 20-point projection at $7k is playable, but not overly intriguing given he’s facing one of the best defenses in the entire country. Tech is giving up just 13.7 FPPG to quarterbacks this season.
Injury Notes – n/a
Mississippi State vs. Texas A&M
- Point-Spread: A&M -13.5
- O/U Total: 55.5
- Implied Score: A&M 34.5 – MSU 21
- Weather: 86 degrees / 2% rain / 7 mph winds
Mississippi State:
Top Play(s) – RB Fluff Bothwell ($6,600) Looks like some G5 to P4 transfers can succeed in this day and age with Bothwell being the prime example in 2025. The South Alabama transfer has scored double-digit fantasy points in each of the last three games, including 134 rushing yards, a season-high, in the loss to Tennessee last week. His rushing attempts have increased with each passing week as the Miss State passing game has leveled off. A&M is an average run defense, ranked 52nd in success rate and giving up around 31 fantasy points per game to the RB position.
Fade – RB Davon Booth ($5,200) Booth remains involved in the offense, and to his credit, has scored three touchdowns in the last two games. But he’s fully given away the RB1 job to Bothwell at this point. Not the matchup as a two-touchdown underdog to play a backup running back. Not sure if we can realistically consider QB Blake Shapen ($7,200) either with a 16-point projection. The Bulldog message boards already have threads about when we’re going to see 4-star freshman Kamario Taylor.
Bargain Bin – TE Seydou Traore ($3,000) Thought Traore would be more of a factor in the MSU passing game with all the new pieces at receiver. After a couple of goose eggs, the production has picked up for the senior tight end with a touchdown in each of the last two games. Could do a lot worse than a 7.3-point projection for a min-priced player.
Pivot Play – WR Anthony Evans ($5,100) Team leader in targets (32), receptions (26) and routes run, playing 81% of the team’s offensive snaps in 2025. If Brenen Thompson is indeed limited, Evans is the clear WR1.
Best of the Rest – WR Brenen Thompson ($3,700) It’s been a whirlwind of a week tracking Brenen Thompson, with message boards swirling that he’s had multiple injuries this week, from upper body to a broken finger. He’s listed as probable on the injury report so we’re expecting Thompson to play, and he is cheap for a player that leads his team in receiving yards (324). Just know the risks if you decide to play him. A healthy Thompson is the best value on the Miss State side.
Injury Notes – n/a
Texas A&M:
Top Play(s) – WR KC Concepcion ($6,000) and / or WR Mario Craver ($6,400) I would side with just playing one A&M receiver in a lineup versus stacking together, but not an outlandish thought to play both. The salaries make that achievable, and the duo accounts for almost 70% of the team’s receiving production. No player on A&M outside of Craver and Concepcion has more than eight catches this season.
Fade – Backups. When Marcel Reed drops back to pass, he’s throwing in the direction of Concepcion and Craver, and that’s about it. Le’Veon Moss is at full strength, with 20+ carries in the last two weeks. Huge risk rostering anyone on A&M outside of those three.
Bargain Bin – WR Ashton Bethel-Roman ($3,100) You wonder if Bethel-Roman will get replaced in the starting lineup at some point as the freshman has converted on just five of his 15 targets with two drops. That said, Bethel-Roman is on the field a lot, and leads the Aggies in routes run this season.
Pivot Play – QB Marcel Reed ($9,000) Reed likely won’t see a ton of ownership with just a 21.2-point projection and the highest salary on the slate. Mississippi State has been solid against the pass, ranking 24th in success rate, 5th in the SEC in YPG (170.2) and only allowing just 15.6 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks.
Best of the Rest – RB Le’Veon Moss ($8,000) The coaching staff limited Moss in the preseason and allowed him a ramp up period in Week’s 1 and 2. The senior running back is now at full strength, rushing for over 210 yards and four touchdowns combined in the last two games. His projection of 15 fantasy points feels like the floor for Moss if he continues to get 20+ rushing attempts a game. Mississippi State is 11th in the SEC in yards allowed on the ground.
Injury Notes – n/a
Colorado vs. TCU
Point-Spread: TCU -13.5
O/U Total: 57.5
Implied Score: TCU 35.5 – Col 22
Weather: 87 degrees / 0% rain / 8 mph winds
Colorado:
Top Play(s) – QB Kaidon Salter ($6,600) The projections and optimizers are going to say start Salter this week. And that makes sense with this salary and Salter’s rushing ability, running for a combined 135 yards on 28 attempts over the last two games. But the passing game has been lackluster, so much so that Salter has been sparring with Colorado fans on social media this week. It doesn’t seem like Salter is at risk of being benched, but this could go sideways in a hurry if Colorado struggles out of the gate. TCU is 94th in pass D success rate, giving up 20.5 FPPG to quarterbacks this season.
Fade – WR Omarion Miller ($6,300) The argument in favor of Miller is that he’ll see very little ownership at $6.3k as the most expensive Colorado receiver. The junior receiver has also had a few boom weeks in his career, scoring 30+ fantasy points against USC as a freshman and Kansas State as a sophomore. Outside of that, though, Miller has been oft-injured and ineffective.
Bargain Bin – RB Drelon Miller ($3,800) Miller has transitioned to running back with the mounting injuries and the position, and looked like a natural vs. BYU, rushing for 52 yards and a touchdown on eight attempts. Miller only ran six routes but managed 27 receiving yards and a touchdown in Week 5 as well. WR Sincere Brown ($3,000) had minimal production vs. BYU yet was on the field for 100% of the team’s snaps. He starts with Drelon Miller’s move to running back.
Pivot Play – RB Micah Welch ($4,700) Colorado isn’t a good running team by any stretch, but they’ve improved their YPG total from last season by over 80 yards, averaging 147 yards per game on the ground. Welch has been excellent the last two games, averaging over seven yards per carry, including a season-high 67 yards vs. BYU last week. TCU has been better vs. the run than pass, though, ranking 33rd in rush D success rate, and limiting opponents to 3.58 YPC.
Best of the Rest – WR Joseph Williams ($5,200) Team leader in targets (22), receiving yards (220) and routes run. Williams makes more sense than Omarion Miller at $1.1k less.
Injury Notes – RB Simeon Price (out), RB Dallan Hayden (out), RB DeKalon Taylor (out)
TCU:
Top Play(s) – QB Josh Hoover ($8,600) Highest floor QB option on the slate. Hoover had a rough outing last week against Arizona State but should bounce back at home against a Colorado defense that is giving up 25 FPPG to opposing QBs this season. Hoover is 6th in the country in pass yards per game (310.5)
Fade – Probables. Both Eric McAlister and Kevorian Barnes are probable entering Saturday night. The indications are that Barnes may be closer to playing than McAlister. I don’t think either player is worth the risk, even if announced they’re available. McAlister was a non-factor in two of three games prior to the injury. The Horned Frogs are dead last in the conference in rushing (133.5 YPG) and 94th in success rate. TCU beat writers were asked to name the leading rusher for Saturday’s contest and three different players were listed.
Bargain Bin – TE DJ Rogers ($3,800) Rogers is fourth on the team in routes run and targets (15), coming off a season-best 60 yards vs. Arizona State. He gets a bump if Eric McAlister doesn’t play, as does WR Ed Small ($3,000) who would start in his place. FWIW – a TCU beat writer predicted that Small would have 150 total yards of offense on Saturday (bold).
Pivot Play – RB Trent Battle ($3,000) or RB Jeremy Payne ($4,200) Both are in play if Kevorian Barnes is announced out. Battle and Payne found the end-zone last week vs. Arizona State and got a better matchup vs. Colorado where the Buffs rank 15th of 16 teams in the conference in yards allowed on the ground.
Best of the Rest – WR Joseph Manjack IV ($4,500) or WR Jordan Dwyer ($5,700) Expect a big discrepancy in ownership between Manjack and Dwyer given the differences in salary. Manjack has also been the better option of the two in the last three weeks, scoring double-digit fantasy points in each game during that span. Dwyer makes sense in GPP.
Injury Notes – RB Kevorian Barnes (probable), WR Eric McAlister (probable)
Kansas vs. Central Florida
- Point-Spread: KU -5
- O/U Total: 55
- Implied Score: KU 30 – UCF 25
- Weather: 77 degrees / 77% rain / 13 mph winds
Kansas:
Top Play(s) – QB Jalon Daniels ($8,100) Daniels is my favorite QB option on the slate with the ability to get it done on the ground or through the air. 23 or more fantasy points in every game played this season. UCF’s pass defense ranks at the top of the B12 but look who they’ve faced. Jacksonville State doesn’t throw the ball. North Carolina stinks. Kansas State’s had their struggles offensively. Throw those defensive metrics out the window.
Fade – n/a. All Kansas players are cheap enough to consider.
Bargain Bin – TE Boden Groen ($3,100) The Rice transfer started in place of DeShawn Hanika and converted on all five of his targets for 84 yards and a touchdown, giving Groen two TDs in the last two games. UCF is allowing 12.4 FPPG to the tight end position this season.
Pivot Play – RB Leshon Williams ($4,900) Williams will get the bulk of the RB carries again this week with Daniel Hishaw Jr. announced OUT due to injury. UCF is 12th in the B12 in yards allow per game on the ground and 83rd in rush D success rate. While Williams only had 10 rushing attempts vs. Cincinnati, no other Kansas RB carried the football in the game. Don’t have to worry about Williams sharing carries with anyone other than Jalon Daniels.
Best of the Rest – WR Emmanuel Henderson Jr. ($4,900) The Alabama transfer accounts for 32% of the team’s receiving production, boosted by the 214-yard performance last week vs. Cincinnati. Boom or bust based on his box scores but does lead the team in every receiving category. WR Cam Pickett ($3,500) or WR Levi Wentz ($3,100) are playable options, on the field around 60% of the time. Wentz has a receiving touchdown in each of the last two games.
Injury Notes – RB Daniel Hishaw Jr. (out)
Central Florida:
Top Play(s) – RB Jaden Nixon ($3,800) What is it going to take for Nixon to get more carries over RB Myles Montgomery ($6,700)? All Nixon has done this season is average 14.1 YPC with four touchdowns in the last three games. Yet the coaching staff continually trots out Montgomery each week, who averages just around five yards a carry to his credit, but is getting eight more rushing attempts per game over Nixon. With the price differential, Nixon is the far better value of the two.
Fade – QB Tayven Jackson ($6,900) It would seem as though Jackson is starting on Saturday, with Jacurri Brown unlikely to play. That said, Jackson was in a sling at one point last week in the loss to Kansas State (though he did return) and HC Scott Frost technically has not named a starter for this week. It wouldn’t surprise us to see Cam Fancher at some point with Jackson less than 100%.
Bargain Bin – TE Kylan Fox ($3,000) Whoever has played tight end this season for UCF has been productive when on the field. With starter Dylan Wade questionable, Fox is in line to start on Saturday and was targeted five times against Kansas State last week in place of Wade.
Best of the Rest – WRs. UCF primarily plays three wide receivers and doesn’t rotate much beyond the trio of Duane Thomas Jr. ($3,900), DJ Black ($3,200) and WR Marcus Burke ($3,000). Thomas was targeted a season-high 10 times last time out vs. KSU and is the team leader with 16 receptions. Black is the big-play threat of the group with half of the team’s receiving touchdowns (2) this season, averaging 18.7 YPC with an aDOT of 16.6 yards.
Injury Notes – QB Jacurri Brown (questionable), TE Dylan Wade (questionable)
Miami vs. Florida State
- Point-Spread: Mia -4
- O/U Total: 54
- Implied Score: Mia 29 – FSU 25
- Weather: 78 degrees / 34% rain / 12 mph winds
Miami:
Top Play(s) – RB Mark Fletcher ($7,000) Expect Miami to replicate Virginia’s approach offensively to beating Florida State on Saturday with long, sustained drives running the football. Fletcher has been on a tear for the last three weeks, combining for five rushing touchdowns in that span with back-to-back 100-yard performances on the ground.
Fade – RB CharMar Brown ($5,300) Brown had his best fantasy performance against Florida in Week 4, rushing for 80 yards on 18 carries while adding 53 yards receiving out of the backfield. The problem this week is that we actually believe HC Mario Christobal that Jordan Lyle will be playing Saturday. We don’t anticipate that impacting Fletcher as the team’s clear RB1, but Brown’s playing time could suffer as a result.
Bargain Bin – TE Elija Lofton ($3,400) Did we see a turning of the corner from Lofton against Florida, with a season high four receptions on five targets. Florida State is allowing 10.3 FPPG to opposing tight ends this season.
Pivot Play – WR Malachi Toney ($4,800) The freshman has been relatively quiet for a couple weeks now but remains one of the most efficient receivers in the country with an 82% catch rate and zero drops. Toney continues to lead the team in targets (27), receptions (22) and routes run.
Best of the Rest – WR CJ Daniels ($4,200) Daniels’ job isn’t in jeopardy, leading the Canes with three receiving touchdowns. WR Keelan Marion ($3,300) has also been efficient, catching 11 passes on 15 targets, but his playing status could be impacted by the return of WR JoJo Trader ($3,600) on Saturday. Similar to Lyle, we’ve been lied to in recent weeks by the coaching staff, saying that both players would be on the field, but haven’t played. This is the week we expect both Lyle and Trader on the field. Florida State ranks 77th in pass D success rate and allowing around 34 combined fantasy points each week to the WR position. We’d side with just one Miami receiver per lineup.
Injury Notes – n/a
Florida State:
Top Play(s) – WR Duce Robinson ($4,100) Too cheap for a player that has triple the number of targets as the next closest Florida State receiver, coming off a season-best nine receptions for 147 yards and a touchdown on 12 targets in the loss to Virginia.
Fade – RB Roydell Williams ($5,600) Miami is excellent at stopping the run, ranked ninth in rush D success rate and allowing just 14.2 FPPG combined to opposing backfields this season. Williams is back healthy this week but has likely ceded his starting job to Gavin Sawchuk and Ousmane Kromah.
Bargain Bin – TE Randy Pittman ($3,000) Pittman doesn’t leave the field when healthy, playing over 90% of the offensive snaps in the two games he’s been available, including a receiving AND passing touchdown last week vs. Virginia. Miami is allowing 11.1 FPPG to the tight end position this season.
Pivot Play – QB Thomas Castellanos ($7,800) Starting a QB against this Miami defense and its ferocious pass rush is a gamble. But Castellanos’ legs will need to be utilized in this matchup if FSU is to come out victorious. Here’s a stat from FSU’s 247Sports site – “The Hurricanes’ Success Rate vs. quarterback runs is 50 percent, which is slightly below average nationally (72nd).” Look for FSU to get Castellanos outside of the tackle box on Saturday.
Best of the Rest – WR Micahi Danzy ($3,100) Would love to see Florida State utilize the redshirt freshman even more than they have this season, having scored double-digit fantasy points in three of four games. A running back in high school, Danzy converted to wide receiver this offseason and has caught two or more passes in the last three games. Florida State also gets Danzy involved in the run game, scoring three times in the first three games on the ground, as FSU will run a reverse play with him at least once a week it seems.
Injury Notes – n/a
Minnesota vs. Ohio State
- Point-Spread: OSU -23.5
- O/U Total: 44.5
- Implied Score: OSU 34 – Minn 10.5
- Weather: 75 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Minnesota:
Lowest implied team total on the slate, facing the No. 1 scoring defense on the road at night, without your best player as its unlikely RB Darius Taylor suits up again this week. Maybe mix in one of the pass-catchers between WR Le’Meke Brockington ($3,900), WR Javon Tracy ($3,300), WR Jalen Smith ($4,700) or TE Jameson Geers ($3,100) but no more than one Gopher per lineup.
Ohio State:
Top Play(s) – WR Jeremiah Smith ($8,500) Smith has been his dominant self, outside of the Texas matchup, scoring four touchdowns with over 350 receiving yards combined over the last three weeks. Minnesota’s secondary is below average, allowing 250+ passing yards over the last two games to California and Rutgers. The Gophers are giving up around 43 combined fantasy points to opposing receivers each week.
Fade – RB James Peoples ($4,600) Insert Vince Carter “it’s over” GIF. Peoples is relegated to third-string duties now and is a likely transfer candidate this offseason. Peoples had just three carries in the win over Washington last week.
Bargain Bin – TE Max Klare ($3,000) The most difficult debate in college fantasy each offseason is system vs. talent. We know Klare has the talent, coming over from Purdue after several productive seasons, but Ohio State doesn’t incorporate the TE position much in the passing game. That’s increased slightly over the last two weeks, with two receptions against both Ohio and Washington, and has double the number of routes run in those matchups compared to the first two weeks.
Pivot Play – WR Carnell Tate ($5,300) Smith will be chalk, and for good reason. Tate has been as expected this season – a productive WR2 that isn’t on the level of his WR counterpart. Between Tate and Smith, though, the duo accounts for seven of the team’s 11 receiving touchdowns and 52% of the target share. Tate is playable solo or potentially stacking with Smith because OSU doesn’t throw it to anyone else.
Best of the Rest – RB Bo Jackson ($5,900) We haven’t seen a consistent fantasy producer in the Ohio State backfield in over a year and a half, so we’re not instantly locking Jackson after his impressive 80-yard performance against Washington. RB CJ Donaldson ($5,700) will continue to be a factor, particularly in the red zone, but this backfield looks to have been turned over to the true freshman. Both could find themselves with double-digit fantasy points on Saturday if this game is the blowout most expect. Minnesota is allowing just 14.7 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks this season but have given up five TD passes in the last two games to Jaron Sagapolutele and Athan Kaliakmanis. QB Julian Sayin ($8,400) is a high-floor option that won’t wreck your lineup.
Injury Notes – n/a
Mike’s DK Core Four:
- WR Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State
- At least one Texas A&M receiver
- QB Jalon Daniels, Kansas
- QB Josh Hoover, TCU
Mike’s FD Core Four:
- WR Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State
- QB Brendon Lewis, Memphis
- WR Joseph Manjack IV, TCU
- RB Bo Jackson, Ohio State
