Notre Dame vs. Louisville
Point-Spread: ND -6
O/U Total: 54
Implied Score: ND 30 – Lou 24
Weather: 58 degrees / 0% rain / 11 mph winds
Notre Dame:
Top Play(s) – RB Audric Estime ($8,100) If there is a weakness to this Louisville defense, it would be the front seven defending the run as they’re 72nd in rush D success rate and have allowed four different running backs to hit double-digit fantasy points this season. Overall numbers aren’t bad against the run, allowing just 25 combined fantasy points per game to opposing backfields, but that number is aided from facing two of the worst rushing teams in the ACC already in NC State and Boston College. Estime and this offensive line is a different animal.
Fade – WR Tobias Merriweather ($4,200) I’m heavily invested in Merriweather’s under prop bet at 34.5 receiving yards, so I’m sure he’ll end up having a huge game on Saturday. The sophomore receiver does get a lot of cardio in each week, but rarely results in significant production. Team leader in routes run, yet is sixth in receptions and targets, and first in drops. With Notre Dame now healthy again at the wide receiver position, there’s no need to consider Merriweather here.
Bargain Bin – WR Rico Flores Jr. ($3,700) What I’m curious to see on Saturday is if Flores Jr. is relegated to a backup again now that Jayden Thomas ($5,400) is expected to start, or does the talented freshman take Merriweather’s spot in the starting lineup. Flores has a clear connection with Sam Hartman despite limited playing time with 17 of his 23 targets coming in the last three games alone – all of which were competitive matchups.
Pivot Play – TE Mitchell Evans ($5,300) I’ve seen folks jump on Evans’ under receiving prop this week with the return of Jayden Thomas and Jaden Greathouse from injury. Certainly muddies the water with a surplus of Notre Dame pass catchers available, but Evans has been one of the top tight ends in the country the last two weeks with 13 receptions on 14 targets – now leading the team in both categories. No data to support how well Louisville does in facing opposing tight ends, because they haven’t faced a team yet on the schedule that utilizes the position.
Best of the Rest – QB Sam Hartman ($8,900) Adequate Louisville secondary, ranking 33rd in pass D success rate and 61st in Pro Football Focus coverage grades. Which group shows up on Saturday? The one that forced NC State to make a QB change? Or the one that allowed a combined 60 fantasy points to Thomas Castellanos and Haynes King? 20-point projection at $8.9k is probably closer to a fade than play.
Injury Notes – n/a
Louisville:
Top Play(s) – WR Jamari Thrash ($6,000) Not a must-have in your lineup considering the opponent, but Thrash is the best player on a Louisville offense that will likely be playing from behind if the Vegas odds are correct (and they’ve been spot-on with the Irish this season). Thrash doesn’t have the high target share we’re used to seeing from a Jeff Brohm WR1 (23%) but has five of the team’s 12 receiving touchdowns and ranks inside the top 25 nationally among wideouts with a 20.2 YPC average. The concern is that this Irish defense is allowing the fourth fewest fantasy points in the country to opposing WRs.
Fade – QB Jack Plummer ($7,800) Plummer ranks 7th for me of available QBs on this slate, playing an aggressive Irish defense that is 12th in pass D success rate and allows just 13.4 FPPG to opposing QB1s. We saw last week how Plummer performed when NC State ratcheted up the pressure. Expect the Irish to employ a similar strategy. This is a major step up in competition for Plummer as the combined record of Louisville’s first five opponents is just 11-13.
Bargain Bin – WR Ahmari Huggins-Bruce ($4,000) Second on the team in targets (16), and has proven capable already of having big-play potential with 110 yards and two touchdowns on just three targets in Week 4 vs. Boston College. Notre Dame’s best cornerback, Benjamin Morrison, will likely cover Thrash outside, so could be opportunities in the middle of the field to exploit as we saw a few weeks ago with Ohio State’s Emeka Egubka. The biggest issue is that Huggins-Bruce shares slot reps with FCS transfer WR Kevin Coleman ($3,700).
Pivot Play – RB Jawhar Jordan ($6,900) Still have a decent 16.2-point projection for Jordan this week, though touch sledding inside against a Notre Dame defense that is 35th in rush D success rate, allowing just 10.8 FPPG. The big-play potential of Jordan keeps him in play regardless of opponent, averaging 102 rushing yards per game and 40% of the team’s total rushing share. Three running backs have hit double-digit fantasy points against the Irish in 2023.
Best of the Rest – n/a. Not considering anyone beyond the players highlighted above.
Injury Notes – n/a
Arkansas vs. Ole Miss
Point-Spread: Miss -11.5
O/U Total: 62.5
Implied Score: Miss 37 – Ark 25.5
Weather: 60 degrees / 0% rain / 9 mph winds
Arkansas:
Top Play(s) – WR Andrew Armstrong ($5,800) The former Division III transfer has asserted himself as the clear WR1 for the Hogs, now with 29% of the team’s target share with 351 receiving yards and four touchdowns. His targets could increase now that prized freshman tight end Luke Hasz was lost for the year due to injury. Ole Miss is allowing 47.7 FPPG to opposing WR groups this season and over 21 fantasy points to WR1s. Should be a big game incoming for Armstrong if this Arkansas offense doesn’t get in its own way.
Fade – RB Rashod Dubinion ($5,000) The return of Rocket eliminates any backups from DFS contention. And would imagine that the reps for Sanders increase with each week since returning from injury.
Bargain Bin – TE Var’Keyes Gumms ($3,400) The former North Texas transfer saw his most extended action of the season last week, targeted just once against A&M. He’ll be thrust into a bigger role now with Hasz out with injury. This is a major risk in considering Gumms, but he was a Conference USA freshman first-teamer last year with North Texas, catching 34 passes with five touchdowns.
Pivot Play – WR Isaac TeSlaa ($4,400) The production hasn’t been there for TeSlaa with fewer than 35 receiving yards in each of the last three games. But his playing time has not diminished and there is an established top two in the pecking order with TeSlaa/Armstrong combining for 49% of the team’s target share. Must imagine everyone’s targets get a slight bump now too with Hasz out of the lineup.
Best of the Rest – QB KJ Jefferson ($7,300) Worst performance of the season last week, albeit against a very good A&M secondary, completing just nine passes for 132 yards with a pick-six. Thankfully for Jefferson, the Ole Miss secondary is not in the same vicinity as A&M, ranking 116th in pass D success rate and allowing over 26 FPPG to opposing QB1s. The 19-point projection we have for Jefferson feels low considering the opponent. RB Rocket Sanders ($5,500) had just 70 total yards of offense last week on 11 rushing attempts but was inches away from breaking multiple big runs against the Aggies. Arkansas is reportedly making wholesale changes again this week along the offensive line in hopes of improving the rushing woes. RB1s are averaging 19 FPPG against the Rebels.
Injury Notes – TE Luke Hasz ($5,000) Done for the year with a broken collarbone.
Ole Miss:
Top Play(s) – RB Quinshon Judkins ($6,400) That was the Quinshon Judkins we all know and love last week. 33 attempts for 177 yards and a touchdown vs. a very forgiving LSU defense. How does the matchup look against Arkansas on paper? The Razorbacks are 77th in rush D success rate and have allowed four running backs to score double-digit fantasy points against them. To describe in one word – pedestrian.
Fade – WR Zakhari Franklin ($6,400) I do not believe Franklin playing only 23 of 94 offensive snaps last week was due to easing the UTSA transfer into the gameplan after returning from injury. He’s been available now for two weeks. His lack of playing time, to me, speaks to how well Dayton Wade ($6,300) has been performing. Wade’s playing time has only increased with Franklin’s return.
Bargain Bin – TE Caden Prieskorn ($4,500) Season-high for Prieskorn last week with three receptions on four targets in his second game back from injury. He’ll be counted on even more at the tight end position with Michael Trigg no longer on the team. Arkansas is allowing 7.3 FPPG to opposing tight ends this season.
Pivot Play – RB Ulysses Bentley ($5,000) I wish Bentley was a touch lower because then I’d give him serious consideration after rushing for 90 yards last week against the Tigers. Beat writer’s expectation is around 10 touches for Bentley this week with a bold prediction of 100 total yards of offense.
Best of the Rest – WR Jordan Watkins ($6,500) Even with the returning pieces of Tre Harris, Caden Prieskorn and Zakhari Franklin back in the lineup, Watkins’ production has not wavered with 21 targets in the last two games. Team leader in every single receiving category. I’d probably side with just one Ole Miss receiver in a lineup and not stack. WR Tre Harris ($7,500) also deserves heavy consideration as he’s scored double-digit fantasy points in all three games played. Have to wonder what his stat-line against Tulane would have looked like had he not been injured in the first half. QB Jaxson Dart ($9,000) is our highest-projected quarterback for the night slate.
Injury Notes – n/a
Michigan vs. Minnesota
Point-Spread: UM -18
O/U Total: 46
Implied Score: UM 32 – Minn 14
Weather: 51 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Michigan:
Top Play(s) – RB Blake Corum ($8,200) Colder weather and on the road in a primetime night game. We’ll keep it simple here and assume Michigan will lean on what it does best against a pesky opponent. The question then becomes how good of a play is Corum against Minnesota? Despite allowing just 11.4 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season, the Gophers rank 100th in rush D success rate.
Fade – RB Donovan Edwards ($5,200) Seems to be a confidence issue with Edwards right now as coaches have urged him to make a decision, plant the foot and get up field. Some indecisiveness on Edwards’ part is seemingly part of the problem right now as to why the production isn’t happening. You’ll still see 10-15 touches from Edwards on Saturday, just can’t project that they’ll be effective touches. Not to mention…
Bargain Bin – RB Kalel Mullings ($3,500) There is no better coaching staff in the country at scouting under the radar running backs than Michigan with Jim Harbaugh and former overlooked 3-star Mike Hart. Mullings, a former linebacker by trade, is most known for his unfortunate fumble at the goal-line against TCU in the College Football Playoff last season. Over the last two games, though, Mullings has seen an uptick in carries with 40 yards in each contest, including a TD run against Nebraska. With Donovan Edwards struggling to find his footing, I think these opportunities for Mullings will continue moving forward.
Pivot Play – TE Colston Loveland ($4,300) Loveland was compared to Brock Bowers in the offseason. While a lofty and unfair comparison, Loveland is incredibly talented and should be putting up better numbers than he has so far. Saturday might be an opportunity as tight ends have fared well so far against the Gophers, with Bryson Nesbit and Charlie Mangieri both scoring over 11 fantasy points in their matchups.
Best of the Rest – QB JJ McCarthy ($8,100) High floor play with a 21.6-point projection but think this will be a slower-paced, ball-control type matchup for the Michigan offense. Minnesota has been better against the pass this season, allowing just 19 FPPG to opposing QB1s and 48th in pass D success rate. Think we’ll see the Michigan run game assert itself as the cold front hits the Midwest this weekend. If investing in the Michigan passing game, I’ll look to either Loveland or one of the two receivers in WR Roman Wilson ($6,000) or WR Cornelius Johnson ($5,100) who combine for 40% of the target share.
Injury Notes – n/a
Minnesota:
Lowest implied team total facing the No. 1 defense in the country, potentially without their best player in RB Darius Taylor ($4,800). Sounds like a recipe for disaster if investing in anyone on the Minnesota side. We’re not interested in QB Athan Kaliakmanis ($5,700) but assuming a game script in which Minnesota has to throw, it’s conceivable that WR Daniel Jackson ($6,000) or WR Corey Crooms ($5,200) is in the winning lineup. We’ll side with the former who has four touchdowns in five games and has been the preferred option every time Minnesota has fallen behind. Don’t bother with Taylor or his replacement at running back should he be out – Michigan is the No. 1 rush defense in the country, allowing just five fantasy points to opposing running backs.
Kentucky vs. Georgia
Point-Spread: UGA -14.5
O/U Total: 47.5
Implied Score: UGA 31 – UK 16.5
Weather: 62 degrees / 0% rain / 11 mph winds
Kentucky:
Top Play(s) – RB Ray Davis ($6,500) No Davis, no cash last week as he ran for a career-high 280 yards and four total touchdowns against what was statistically the second-best rush defense in the entire country. Georgia has taken a step back this season defending the run, ranked 40th in rush D success rate, yet still only one running back (Jarquez Hunter) has hit double-digit fantasy points against this front. I’ll take the chance that Davis will not have another career-best level performance this week against the defending champs.
Fade – QB Devin Leary ($6,600) It was a struggle for Leary to produce fantasy points against Akron and Eastern Kentucky this season. We’re not starting a non-running QB vs. Georgia. To be fair to Leary, 11% of his incompletions this season are a result of drops – highest mark in the SEC.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Not playing anyone sub-$5k.
Pivot Play – WR Dane Key ($5,100) After a fast start to the season, Key has now been shut out in two of the last three games, seeing his target numbers drop as well. While all three of Kentucky’s wideouts are expected to play, I sided with Key here as both WR Tayvion Robinson ($5,400) and WR Barion Brown ($5,600) both left last week’s contest with injuries. Potential for someone to pop in a DFS winning lineup as four receivers have already surpassed double-digit fantasy points against the Georgia secondary in 2023. Just difficult to guess which one with the Kentucky WR roulette.
Best of the Rest – n/a. Realistically, this is a full-team fade on the road, at night, against the defending champs. Not playing anyone that isn’t highlighted above.
Injury Notes – n/a
Georgia:
Top Play(s) – RB Daijun Edwards ($6,300) Five rushing touchdowns in the last three games for Edwards who has gone from third-down only running back to team’s bell-cow in 2023. Partially out of necessity with the surplus of injuries in the UGA backfield, but credit to Edwards who’s showing he’s fully capable in his new role. Tough test against a Kentucky front that is 28th in rush D success rate and allowing only 10.1 FPPG to RB1s, but you tend to trust Georgia in these types of games/situations.
Fade – QB Carson Beck ($8,200) I have nine quarterbacks ranked ahead of Beck for this slate in particular, so if I do have any exposure, it won’t be much. The junior quarterback played well in the second half comeback attempt against Auburn last week but was largely saved by his future first-round pick at tight end. Kentucky is allowing just 10.4 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season. And if UGA jumps out to an early lead, Beck will be rendered useless against a one-dimensional Kentucky offense. I’d rather not take that chance.
Bargain Bin – WR Rara Thomas ($4,600) Know some folks were high on sophomore Dillon Bell after last season, but Thomas has fully assumed the starting outside spot opposite Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint. Production has been minimal for the former Mississippi State transfer, but Thomas has played the most offensive snaps of any UGA receiver over the last two weeks.
Pivot Play – TE Brock Bowers ($6,600) Couple of notes here I wanted to point out with Bowers. Just twice in his 2.5-year career has he had 60+ receiving yards in three straight games. Just once has Bowers had three straight games of finding the end-zone. We know how great this future first-round pick and potential Heisman contender is, but the production can be inconsistent. Also, noteworthy that Kentucky is allowing the 11th most fantasy points (13 FPPG) to opposing TE groups this season.
Best of the Rest – WR Ladd McConkey ($5,700) McConkey made his return to the field last week, only playing 40% of the offensive snaps vs. Auburn, but made the most of his opportunities with four receptions on five targets to lead all UGA wideouts. Expectation is those reps increase this week.
Injury Notes – RB Kendall Milton ($5,300) Milton did wind up seeing five offensive snaps against Auburn last week but did not carry the ball once. Kirby Smart told the media Milton “has been great this week” and “looks healthier this week than he did last.”
Georgia Tech vs. Miami
Point-Spread: Mia -20.5
O/U Total: 57.5
Implied Score: Mia 39 – GT 18.5
Weather: 80 degrees / 21% rain / 7 mph winds
Georgia Tech:
Top Play(s) – WR Eric Singleton Jr. ($3,700) Severely underpriced freshman phenom that has now scored a touchdown in each of the first five games to start his college career. Singleton Jr. played sparingly in the opener against Louisville, caught some eyeballs with the touchdown grab he had in that matchup, and has seen his playing time increase with every passing week – now a staple in the starting lineup. Just too cheap to ignore here.
Fade – RB Trevion Cooley ($5,100) I don’t expect much from the Georgia Tech running game against what is statistically a top five rush defense in the country. Not to mention Cooley has yet again fallen to second on the depth chart behind converted receiver Jamal Haynes ($4,800) who has garnered 60% of the team’s carries in the last two games. Not anticipating Georgia Tech finding a ton of success on the ground, but being the former receiver that he is, Haynes isn’t eliminated from our player pool. 12 receptions on 14 targets this season.
Bargain Bin – WR Dominick Blaylock ($4,300) The former Georgia transfer is third on the team in routes run despite missing a game. Had a season-high 7-131-0 on nine targets last week in the failed comeback attempt vs. Bowling Green. Likely another comeback attempt on Saturday as a three-touchdown underdog.
Pivot Play – QB Haynes King ($7,500) King and the entire Georgia Tech offense have been one of the pleasant surprises in college football, averaging 32.4 PPG with King also averaging just under 30 FPPG. Not smoke and mirrors either as the advanced data supports the high-level stats with the Georgia Tech passing game ranking 16th in pass success rate and 24th in EPA/pass play. As long as Tech can hold up somewhat in the trenches against this Miami pass rush, King should find ways to be successful and could be a run-back candidate in a game stack lineup.
Best of the Rest – WR Malik Rutherford ($4,900) Anticipated Rutherford being the team’s WR1 this season, but the emergence of Singleton has squashed that idea. The junior receiver is still plenty productive, leading the team in receptions (22), second in targets (30) and second in routes run. Volume is needed, though, with a 7.1 average depth of target.
Injury Notes – n/a
Miami:
Top Play(s) – WRs. Play any one of Xavier Restrepo, Jacolby George or Colbie Young – no strong preference as Miami is spreading the ball around evenly between the three. And because of the top-heavy target share for Miami (68%), multiple Hurricane wideouts in the same lineup also makes sense. Georgia Tech is better at defending the pass than the run, but also allowing 21 FPPG to opposing WR1s. Eight different receivers have already hit double-digit fantasy points against the Jackets.
Fade – WR Tyler Harrell ($3,900) Receivers beyond the top three haven’t been involved much, and it seems like if you’re a veteran not named Restrepo, George or Young, you’re going to be surpassed by a freshman sooner or later. Such is the case here with Ray-Ray Joseph overtaking the former Louisville and Alabama transfer.
Bargain Bin – RB Chris Johnson ($3,100) When asked this week about a pair of freshmen that have received minimal playing time, OC Shannon Dawson stated, “we’re at that point to where the ball needs to start moving around a little bit.” Johnson fits that mold after seeing garbage time reps in both of Miami’s last two blowouts. Sounds like Johnson might be one of those considered for additional playing time. Longest of longshots, but this is a bad Georgia Tech run defense and a blowout situation.
Pivot Play – No Miami RB. Sounds blasphemous to not have a Miami running back in your lineup against the 132nd ranked rush defense, but there are legitimately five options the Hurricanes can throw out there behind Tyler Van Dyke in the backfield. Ajay Allen did not play against Temple but is expected to be full-go for Saturday. Henry Parrish, Mark Fletcher, and Donald Chaney Jr. combined for 36 carries against the Owls in a blowout situation. And then what if the prediction above is correct that Johnson will also see some special run packages? Still think it’s prudent to have one Miami running back in your lineup given the circumstances of the matchup, but they’re going to spread it around to at least three RBs consistently.
Best of the Rest – QB Tyler Van Dyke ($8,500) Highest floor of any QB on the slate I believe. Georgia Tech is allowing 24.1 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season, and TVD is playing at an elite level under Shannon Dawson, completing 75% of his passes for 11 touchdowns and 1 interception. Georgia Tech’s offense has also been good enough in 2023 where Miami can’t relax and just run the football all night.
Injury Notes – n/a
Texas Tech vs. Baylor
Point-Spread: TT -1.5
O/U Total: 59.5
Implied Score: TT 30.5 – Bay 29
Weather: 66 degrees / 0% rain / 9 mph winds
Texas Tech:
Top Play(s) – RB Tahj Brooks ($5,600) Not used to a Zach Kittley-led offense producing an elite fantasy RB, but the Red Raiders have featured their best offensive player the last three weeks. 100+ rushing yards for Brooks in each of the last three games, averaging 22 carries per game in that stretch. It’s not even that Texas Tech is necessarily running more this season than they did in 2022 – it’s that Brooks doesn’t have to share the backfield with SaRodorick Thompson anymore. The senior back is a true RB1. Good matchup too against a Baylor defense that is 97th in rush D success rate.
Fade – RB Cam’Ron Valdez ($4,700) The staff has confidence in Valdez as the RB2 behind Brooks, but this is not the 50-50 split backfield it was a year ago. Valdez did hit 100 yards rushing last week against Houston, but 50% of those yards came on one carry.
Bargain Bin – WR Xavier White ($3,900) White has overtaken Drae McCray as the WR2 in the slot. Doesn’t sound appealing but the Air Raid offense will feature two slot receivers at times. 50% of White’s targets have come in the last two games.
Pivot Play – QB Behren Morton ($6,100) At the end of the day, this is still an Air Raid offense under Kittley, so if for some reason the running game is not working on Saturday, Tech will not hesitate to throw the football 40+ times. A pregame report came out last week that Morton had not thrown a single pass in practice due to injury. That was not the case this week and is reportedly expected to be “a little more aggressive” per one of the team’s beat writers. Baylor is allowing 23 FPPG to opposing QB1s, and Morton is dirt cheap.
Best of the Rest – WR Myles Price ($5,100) Price has found the end-zone in every game he’s not been injured in. Played just four snaps in the loss to West Virginia. Slot receivers are profitable in Kittley’s offense (see Malachi Corley). WR Jerand Bradley ($5,900) will likely see low ownership after his dud against Houston last week. Game script played a major part with Tech attempting just 22 passes. Bradley leads the Red Raiders by a wide margin with 25% target share.
Injury Notes – n/a
Baylor:
Top Play(s) – WR Monaray Baldwin ($4,400) Two weeks ago we we’re saying fade Baldwin, now he’s “easily” Baylor’s top fantasy option. 15 of Baldwin’s 23 targets have come in the last two weeks with over 230 receiving yards and a touchdown. The junior receiver is one of the fastest players in all of college football, averaging over 23 yards per reception. As for why the sudden flip in production, I’m not sure. Blake Shapen did say that Baldwin has been putting in extra work of late to become “that guy,” and was a captain against Texas.
Fade – RB Dawson Pendergrass ($4,200) So long as Dom Richardson ($3,900) is healthy, Pendergrass is the third option in the Baylor backfield. HC Dave Aranda said that Richardson was dealing with a high ankle spring, thus the limited rushing attempts (10) vs. UCF last week.
Bargain Bin – See above. We won’t officially know how healthy Richardson is for Saturday’s contest, but we do know that this coaching staff has an affinity (for whatever reason) for 200+ pound running backs. That’s Richardson…if he’s healthy, as he was the preferred option in the first three weeks of the season.
Pivot Play – WR Ketron Jackson Jr. ($4,500) The Arkansas transfer has all the physical attributes you could want in a WR1 but hasn’t put it all together this season. Jackson still leads the team in targets (33) and routes run but has a 42% catch rate with three drops. GPP option only.
Best of the Rest – QB Blake Shapen ($7,900) In the two games Shapen has been healthy, we’ve seen major improvements since last season, completing 64% of his throws and a 9.0 yards per attempt average (7.6 YPA in 2022). Can’t say I’ll have much exposure, but game script does work in his favor as an underdog with an implied team total over four touchdowns. Texas Tech ranks 92nd in pass D success rate and has allowed three QB1s to score over 26 fantasy points this season…one of which being Wyoming QB Andrew Peasley. Yikes. RB Richard Reese ($5,000) is easily the most talented back on the Baylor roster, but we know this coaching staff’s preference for a bruiser in the backfield. If Richardson is fully healthy, I can’t imagine Reese still getting the lion’s share of the carries despite rushing for 100 yards against UCF.
Injury Notes – n/a
Fresno State vs. Wyoming
Point-Spread: Fres -6
O/U Total: 44.5
Implied Score: Fres 25 – Wyo 19
Weather: 57 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Fresno State:
Top Play(s) – WR Jaelen Gill ($5,900) A bit surprised at our projection with WR Erik Brooks ($6,700) being listed ahead of Gill after what’s transpired in the last few weeks. Brooks’ snap counts have essentially been cut in half as the two receivers share the slot receiver role, and Gill has been the favored option of the two, now finding the end-zone four times in the last three games. Was targeted a season-high nine times against Nevada.
Fade – RB Elijah Gilliam ($6,100) I think we’ve seen a takeover at the running back position for Fresno State. If Malik Sherrod ($5,400) hadn’t been injured late in fall camp, he’d have been the RB1 over Gilliam to begin the season. After a few weeks of relying on Gilliam as the bell-cow, we saw the two split snaps in the blowout win over Kent State. Last week, Sherrod played 3/4s of the game, rushing for 123 yards and a touchdown on 12 attempts. Gilliam was in for garbage time. If that wasn’t evidence enough, Sherrod is listed as the starter on this week’s depth chart in the game notes.
Bargain Bin – WR Mac Dalena ($4,200) Dalena is fourth on the priority list for Fresno receivers but has run the second most routes on the team this season with 23 targets.
Pivot Play – WR Jalen Moss ($5,200) Brooks and Gill get the headlines, and rightfully so, but the redshirt freshman receiver does lead the team in routes run this season, second in targets (33) and tops on the team in average depth of target (10.8). Impressive considering Moss wasn’t even supposed to be a starter this year with much of the hype surrounding Josiah Freeman who Jake Haener touted at the NFL Scouting Combine. Moss beat him out in fall camp.
Best of the Rest – QB Mikey Keene ($8,300) Not a matchup in which I have much interest in playing Keene or stacking him with his receivers. One of the lowest implied team totals of the year for the Bulldogs facing one of the slowest-paced teams in the country in 50-degree weather. Keene, an Arizona native, transferred to Fresno State from UCF. I’m curious if he’s ever played a football game in 50-degree weather before.
Injury Notes – n/a
Wyoming:
RB Harrison Waylee ($5,200) is the obvious top play for Wyoming but is he a top play for the slate at $5.2k after rushing for 100+ yards in three straight games? The matchup is far from a gimme against a very good Fresno State defense that is allowing just 10.1 FPPG to opposing RB1s and rank 13th in rush D success rate. The volume will be there for Waylee, because Wyoming isn’t going to throw it 30 times, so you’ll want some exposure in multi-entry GPPs. Not a must, though, with a surplus of RB options on the slate. WR Ayir Asante ($4,300) doesn’t see as many targets as WR Wyatt Wieland ($4,500), but is the team’s big play specialist, averaging 26.7 YPC with an aDOT (average depth of target) of 18.7. Wieland leads the team with 18 receptions on 29 targets, but everything is within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage.
