Missouri vs. Texas A&M
Point-Spread: A&M-1.5
O/U Total: 48.5
Implied Score: A&M 25 – Mizzou 23.5
Weather: 83 degrees / 16% rain / 9 mph winds
Missouri:
Top Play(s) – WR Luther Burden ($8,400) A&M is solid all around defensively but has really struggled in the secondary against opposing wide receivers. Two Florida wideouts and Arkansas’ WR4 all hit 20 fantasy points in their matchups with the Aggies. If that can happen, I’m sure Luther Burden will find similar success as he did a year ago vs. A&M with nine receptions for 158 yards.
Fade – QB Brady Cook ($7,500) Price vs. projection is fine here so Cook isn’t a full fade. That said, A&M hasn’t allowed a quarterback to score more than 15 fantasy points in a game all season yet. And I’m going to assume the 12th man is going to be extra hostile this week after Cook stated Missouri practices are louder than when he went to A&M previously. Bulletin board material. If you want a true fade, no reason at all to play RB Marcus Carroll ($4,800).
Bargain Bin – WR Mookie Cooper ($3,800) Same yearly story it feels for Cooper. The slot receiver plays over 70% of the offensive snaps, is still third in targets behind Missouri’s top two receivers, but there isn’t much production that comes with. Unless a starting receiver is announced out, Cooper doesn’t provide a ton of value.
Pivot Play – RB Nate Noel ($6,000) The Aggies are solid against the run as well, though some backs have found success as Ja’Quinden Jackson and Jeremiyah Love both scored 16 fantasy points in their respective matchups. Noel has solidified RB1 duties, and in the recent competitive contests, we’re seeing Noel get the type of volume we expect from a Missouri RB1.
Best of the Rest – WR Theo Wease ($6,000) Too expensive for a player that’s one great fantasy performance came when Luther Burden was unavailable for much of the second half. His numbers in Week’s 3 and 4 are reflective of what to expect weekly with a healthy WR room.
Injury Notes – n/a
Texas A&M:
Top Play(s) – QB Marcel Reed ($6,200) A&M staff will likely say all the right things about Connor Weigman and this QB situation, but they know in their heart of hearts that Reed is the better option of the two moving forward. Even in a “down” performance last week, Reed still accounted for three touchdowns in the win over Arkansas. Looking at what’s transpired earlier this year, similar QBs to Reed have had some success against the Tigers this season with BC’s Thomas Castellanos (21.6 fpts) and Vandy’s Diego Pavia (26 fpts).
Fade – WR Cyrus Allen ($4,200) Allen has seen his playing time steadily decrease since Jabre Barber has returned to the lineup. Once playing over 70% of the offensive snaps, that’s down to around 50% with just eight targets over the last three games combined.
Bargain Bin – TE Tre Watson ($3,500) Longshot play. Missouri has struggled to defend tight ends so far. Vanderbilt’s TE1 scored 12 fantasy points vs. the Tigers, while BC’s top two tight ends combined for 25 fantasy points. Low-volume option in terms of targets so Watson must find the end-zone to hit value.
Pivot Play – RB Le’Veon Moss ($5,500) Reading some of the game previews from the A&M side, the expectation appears to be that for the Aggies to win this game, they’ll lean on Moss to carry the load. The trouble is how good the Missouri run defense has been this season, ranking 16th nationally with no running back scoring more than 10 fantasy points. Numbers are slightly skewed, though, as Missouri hasn’t exactly faced a guantlet schedule-wise. Boston College and their two-back system is the best run game Mizzou has faced to date.
Best of the Rest – WR Noah Thomas ($3,800) Discounted price here for a player that is averaging nearly six targets per game coming off his best performance of the year with 6-109-1 on 10 targets. 18 of Thomas’ 29 targets this season have come in the last two games so some momentum and chemistry building between he and Reed. WR Jahdae Walker ($3,700) was not targeted vs. Arkansas but has still played over 50% of the offensive snaps the last two weeks so he’s on the field. Limit one pass-catcher from A&M in any lineup you create.
Injury Notes – QB Connor Weigman ($6,200) Listen to the quotes from Eli Drinkwitz earlier this week when commenting on Weigman still being listed as QB1 on the depth chart. All semantics. Reed will start. Weigman was not even suited up last week in pregame warmups.
Boston College vs. Virginia
Point-Spread: UVA -1
O/U Total: 53
Implied Score: UVA 27 – BC 26
Weather: 74 degrees / 1% rain / 6 mph winds
Boston College:
Top Play(s) – QB Thomas Castellanos ($8,400) Not sure I’ll be playing anyone on the BC side in this game but Castellanos back in the lineup helps the offense overall. I like the matchup with Virginia if Castellanos is truly at full strength as UVA is allowing 25 FPPG to opposing QBs this season. Those quarterbacks are scoring about 20% above their seasonal average when facing Virginia.
Fade – RB Treshaun Ward ($5,200) I think the salaries are flipped between Ward and RB Kye Robichaux ($4,200). The latter out-carried Ward 18-6 last week vs. Western Kentucky and Ward is not listed on the injury report so assuming that is performance-related. Just one running back has scored more than 10 fantasy points against UVA this season, but the Hoos also are 111th in rush D success rate. Either way, prefer Robichaux to Ward.
Bargain Bin – WR Jaedn Skeete ($3,300) Skeete is the second most reliable pass-catcher for BC, as he ranks second on the team in both targets (19) and receptions (11). He’s playing significantly more than Jerand Bradley by a 3-1 advantage in snaps played.
Pivot Play – WR Lewis Bond ($4,500) Wide receivers have dominated Virginia to start the season with five players scoring at least 15 fantasy points against this secondary. Two of which – Donavon Greene and Tai Felton – combined for nearly 60 fantasy points. Bond has over 30% of the team’s target share with 23 of the 66 receptions.
Best of the Rest – TE Reed Harris ($3,200) Harris is a TE / WR hybrid type of pass-catcher that can really threaten opponents down the field. Just 30% catch rate but is averaging nearly 50 yards per receptions and a 21.4 aDOT.
Injury Notes – n/a
Virginia:
Top Play(s) – WR Malachi Fields ($8,600) Obvious choice here for UVA’s top option with 29% of the target share and over 25% of the team’s receiving production. Like Anthony Colandrea below, these prices might be a bit too steep for this game total. WRs have found some success against BC with four players scoring 13 or more fantasy points in their respective matchups.
Fade – QB Anthony Colandrea ($9,200) Game totals and projections suggest this is far too high a salary for Colandrea this week, and while not a complete fade, the sophomore QB should really only be in game stack lineups in the off-chance it does become a shootout. Only one QB thus far has scored more than 20 fantasy points against BC so far this season.
Bargain Bin – RB Xavier Brown ($3,300) A player we definitely would like to see get more snaps moving forward over RB Kobe Pace ($4,900) after rushing for 170 yards on just nine carries vs. Coastal Carolina two weeks ago. BC has been very good, though, against the run this season, ranked 28th in success rate and not allowed a player to score more than 16 fantasy points all year.
Pivot Play – WR Trell Harris ($5,800) Harris missed the contest vs. Coastal Carolina but is expected to return on Saturday. Despite missing a game, the former Kent State transfer is still tied with Fields for the team lead in touchdown receptions and is second in both targets (18) and catches (13).
Best of the Rest – TE Tyler Neville ($3,700) While the pass defense has been serviceable for BC, they’ve had some struggles stopping tight ends this season. Jack Velling of Michigan State had season-highs vs. the Eagles with 13 fantasy points. And just last week, Western Kentucky’s TE1 posted 11 fantasy points. Neville is the third option in the passing game behind Fields and Harris, tied for the team lead with two TDs.
Injury Notes – n/a
SMU vs. Louisville
Point-Spread: UL -6.5
O/U Total: 56.5
Implied Score: UL 31.5 – SMU 25
Weather: 74 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
SMU:
Top Play(s) – RB Brashard Smith ($7,800) This is by default as there’s no good SMU option this week. Smith has now combined for over 70 fantasy points in the last two weeks but faces his toughest test of the season as Louisville has been very good against the run this season, allowing just 14.4 FPPG to opposing backfields. The Cardinals are also ranked 5th nationally in rush D success rate.
Fade – WRs. A cluster…you know what. Quite literally the same situation as last season with no alpha in the SMU wide receiver room with no player having more than 18% of the target share.
Bargain Bin – WR Roderick Daniels ($3,900) With Jaylan ‘rooster’ Knighton now out for the season, and LJ Johnson on the shelf too, Daniels has converted to running back to provide depth. And looked good in the process, running for 53 yards and a touchdown last week vs. Florida State. The concern here is that game script dictated Daniel’s 15 rushing attempts. Unlikely to see that amount as a touchdown underdog.
Pivot Play – QB Kevin Jennings ($6,200) Jennings is the architype of QB as a dual-threat that has given this Louisville defense fits in 2024. Riley Leonard, Haynes King and Tyler Huff, all very good runners, have scored at least 23 fantasy points in their matchups with the Cardinals. Jennings will also be forced to throw more than previous games with the pending game script as an underdog.
Best of the Rest – TE RJ Maryland ($4,000) Team leader in receptions (16) and touchdowns (3), while second on the team in targets (21) and routes run. Maryland is cheap enough to consider and would favor over any of the SMU wideouts.
Injury Notes – n/a
Louisville:
Top Play(s) – WR Caullin Lacy ($3,400) Will be the highest owned player of the entire slate at this price. In his first game back from the collarbone injury, Lacy played over 88% of the team’s snaps with eight targets, looking like the player that was one of the top wide receivers in the country last season for South Alabama. Still not sure if Lacy is truly the WR1 or WR2 on this roster yet, but he’s every bit worth a lineup spot at this price.
Fade – WR Ahmari Huggins-Bruce ($3,300) Huggins-Bruce goes from minimally relevant to completely irrelevant with Lacy’s return to the lineup. Just one target vs. Notre Dame.
Bargain Bin – RBs. You’ll see Isaac Brown, Keyjuan Brown and Donald Chaney Jr. all get run this week in a by-committee approach this season for Louisville. Isaac Brown gets the nod of the top option between the three, averaging over 61 yards per game for the season. Not necessary to have any Louisville running back in your lineups as SMU is stout in the middle, ranked 35th in rush D success rate, and haven’t allowed a running back this season to score more than 14 fantasy points.
Pivot Play – WR Chris Bell ($3,600) Bell is clearly WR3 in this offense, and I personally took the under on his 45.5 receiving prop this week. That said, he was still targeted 6 times vs. Notre Dame and played over 90% of the team’s offensive snaps. It’s not out of the realm of possibilities that Bell pops for a big week. Louisville is not rotating at wide receiver.
Best of the Rest – QB Tyler Shough ($7,000) Shough will pop in optimals because of his salary this week but with a projection under 20 fantasy points, it might be wiser to go contrarian and fade the public here. Just two QBs have scored more than 14 fantasy points against SMU this season. WR Ja’Corey Brooks ($6,300) gets dinged slightly with Lacy’s return to the lineup but was still the most productive WR again for Louisville last week with 24 fantasy points and two touchdowns. Imperative that at least one Louisville receiver is in one of your lineups, in my opinion.
Injury Notes – RB Maurice Turner ($3,800) Will remain out this week most likely with a foot injury.
Pittsburgh vs. North Carolina
Point-Spread: Pitt -3.5
O/U Total: 64.5
Implied Score: Pitt 34 – UNC 30.5
Weather: 76 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Pittsburgh:
Top Play(s) – RB Desmond Reid ($8,300) For starters, and most importantly, make sure that we get some confirmation that Desmond Reid is a go for Saturday and there are no surprises unlike Week 4 where the RB1 mysteriously sat out. Thanks Narduzzi. The JMU beatdown altered the perception of the North Carolina defense – the Heels are not as bad as that game would indicate. But also not as good, particularly defending the run as we saw last week, allowing 35 fantasy points to Duke’s Star Thomas.
Fade – RB Derrick Davis ($3,800) See below. Davis’ stock gets dinged more so than Reid with this news.
Bargain Bin – RB Rodney Hammond ($3,000) Bombshell was dropped on Thursday afternoon with the news that Rodney Hammond would be available on Saturday after being previously announced ineligible for the 2024 season. It’s pretty established in my mind that Reid >>>> Hammond, but this is also a player that has 1,500 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns over the course of his career. Might be worth a dart as we don’t *really* know how this offense will utilize the two backs together.
Pivot Play – TE Gavin Bartholomew ($3,500) Tight ends have found success against North Carolina this season with two players scoring over 10 fantasy points vs. the Heels. Tied for fifth on the team in targets (16) and third in routes run.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Stacking multiple WRs is in play this week. Raphael Williams Jr. and Konata Mumpfield are the two premier options of the group, with the former playing over 92% of the offensive snaps in each of the last three games. Mumpfield is the team leader in targets (28), receptions (20), touchdowns (3) and routes run. Kenny Johnson and Censere Lee are both relatively cheap and play a bunch as well. Can’t go wrong with any of the four. QB Eli Holstein ($9,000) is our fourth highest projected player of the entire weekend. But I personally still don’t view him as a must. Yes, UNC allowed 57 fantasy points to Alonza Barnett two weeks ago. Outside of that, the highest number by a QB facing North Carolina is just 14 fantasy points. The JMU performance feels more of an outlier.
Injury Notes – n/a
North Carolina:
Top Play(s) – RB Omarion Hampton ($8,700) Hampton is the top option for UNC until he declares for the NFL Draft. Good, not great, matchup as the Pitt run defense is the strength, ranking 24th in success rate with just one running back surpassing 20 fantasy points against the Panthers. As was the case last year, though, Hampton is dominating the volume with no other UNC back having more than 27 carries on the year.
Fade – WR Kobe Paysour ($5,100) and WR Nate McCollum ($5,500) We’re seeing players opting out of this season already to preserve eligibility and I’m surprised Paysour or McCollumn aren’t one of them as they’ve fallen almost completely out of the rotation. Both played around 20% of the offensive snaps in a competitive game vs. Duke last week.
Bargain Bin – TE Bryson Nesbit ($4,400) Nesbit has emerged as the team’s No. 1 pass-catching option the last two weeks with nine receptions on 19 targets with two scores. You wonder why McCollum and Paysour’s playing time has diminished in recent weeks. UNC is going to more two-tight end sets with Nesbit and John Copenhaver on the field.
Pivot Play – WR J.J. Jones ($5,900) At the same time as Nesbit’s emergence, Jones has taken hold of the WR1 spot, targeted 17 times in the last two games. WR Alex Taylor ($3,000) is the extreme longshot play as his time on the field has increased in the last two games with 24 snaps against James Madison and 20 vs. Duke. He’ll get more playing time with Christian Hamilton out due to injury. The freshman caught 14 touchdowns his senior year of high school.
Best of the Rest – QB Jacolby Criswell ($8,100) Criswell is likely best-suited to be in game stack lineups, assuming this game is the shootout most expect. Pitt is just 79th in pass D success rate and but are only allowing around 17.9 FPPG to opposing QBs. WR Gavin Blackwell ($3,800) has seen his playing time rise dramatically as the second outside option next to JJ Jones. Played 69% of snaps vs. Duke.
Injury Notes – WR Christian Hamilton ($3,700) Hamilton is unlikely to play this week.
Wake Forest vs. NC State
Point-Spread: NC St -5.5
O/U Total: 55.5
Implied Score: NC St 30.5 – WF 25
Weather: 77 degrees / 4% rain / 5 mph winds
Wake Forest:
Top Play(s) – RB Demond Claiborne ($5,500) Imagine dislocating your kneecap, being carried out on a cart, and then coming back into the second half and playing the game of football all in a 2-hour timespan. Superhuman stuff right there. HC Dave Clawson called Claiborne probable this week and was out at practice as of Wednesday, so we’ll assume he’s full-go. Wake has surrendered quite a few fantasy points to opposing RBs this year, giving up 31 to Dylan Sampson and 21 to Phil Mafah.
Fade – n/a. Everyone is priced accordingly. Even Hank Bachmeier could potentially be a throw-in option at the SuperFlex this week as NC State has been horrendous defensively, allowing 21 FPPG to opposing QBs.
Bargain Bin – WR Horatio Fields ($4,200) With Donavon Greene out or limited, Fields as taken on the roll as the top boundary receiver, playing 80% of the snaps in Week 5 with a team-high eight targets. Sounds like the situation will be similar this week based on Dave Clawson’s comments during his weekly pressers.
Pivot Play – WR Taylor Morin ($4,900) Multiple receivers finding success against this NC State defense is a common theme thus far. Clemson’s Antonio Williams and Adam Randall both had 17+ fantasy points in their matchup with NC State. Same goes for La Tech’s Tru Edwards and Jay Wilkerson, combining for 36 fantasy points. It’s possible to have both Fields and Morin in the same lineup (with or without Bachmeier).
Best of the Rest – WR Deuce Alexander ($3,500) Alexander has been the most consistent threat in the passing game beyond Fields and Morin, targeted at least five times in every game thus far, even as the second slot receiver. Round robin at the second boundary spot between Walker Merrill and Micah Mays Jr. splitting time, so not as much interest in that spot. RB Tate Carney’s ($3,800) three-touchdown explosion last week came when Claiborne was limited in the second half with the knee injury. We would not consider him this week, assuming Claiborne is g2g.
Injury Notes – WR Donavon Greene ($4,500) Deemed questionable by Dawson this week. Talented but oft-injured player. Tough to depend on a guy that played just 25% of snaps last week and remains questionable.
NC State:
Top Play(s) – QB CJ Bailey ($5,100) Unlikely that Grayson McCall plays this week so another start for the true freshman. And a great matchup at that against a porous Wake Forest defense that gets beat every which way. 134th – dead last in the country – in pass D success rate, giving up 32 FPPG to opposing QBs. Bailey hasn’t been great, but a legitimate punt option at QB this week.
Fade – RB Jordan Waters ($4,800) Haven’t paid extremely close attention to NC State after their slow start to the year offensively, but it feels like Waters has lost his full-time starting job at this point to younger, better options in Kendrick Raphael and Hollywood Smothers – both of which averaging over a yard more per carry this season than the Duke transfer. If not playing Bailey, starting either Raphael or Smothers could prove to be a winning strategy as the Wake defense cannot stop the run either, ranked 106 in rush D success rate and dead last in the ACC in yards allowed per game on the ground.
Bargain Bin – TE Justin Joly ($3,500) Joly will always be listed as the bargain bin option for NC State if he’s priced under $4k. Second among all NC State pass-catchers in every receiving category. Wake Forest allowed 22 fantasy points earlier in the year to Virginia’s TE1, and they don’t heavily deploy that position much in the offensive scheme either.
Pivot Play – WR KC Concepcion ($6,700) Feels like a good week for KCC to get back on track to his freshman year standards he set. No surprise to anyone after reading this, but wide receivers have also had a field day on this Wake defense with four different players scoring 20 or more fantasy points in their respective matchups. Concepcion is unlikely to have a ton of roster ownership as well.
Best of the Rest – WR Noah Rogers ($3,600) The only pass-catcher I have semi-confidence in producing something outside of KCC and Joly, though he’s only playing around 40% of the team’s offensive snaps at the moment. The same issues are popping up in 2024 of finding a counterpart to Concepion at receiver. WR Keenan Jackson ($3,000) was on the field more vs. NIU than any other NC State receiver not named Concepcion but logged just a single reception.
Injury Notes – n/a
Purdue vs. Wisconsin
Point-Spread: UW -13.5
O/U Total: 45.5
Implied Score: UW 29.5 – Purd 16
Weather: 65 degrees / 1% rain / 12 mph winds
Purdue:
Big news this week is that the coaching carousel has already begun in college football as Purdue relieved offensive coordinator Graham Harrell of his duties. The new play-caller will be analyst Jason Simmons whose most recent play-calling experience is at the high school level. Safe to say we’re avoiding this situation with no data on the new play-caller and with how anemic the Boilermaker offense has been to this point. RB Devin Mockobee ($4,000) is cheap enough that he could be an option. The Wisconsin defense has allowed three running backs this season to score 13 or more fantasy points and are just 58th in success rate and 109th in EPA per run play. TE Max Klare ($3,700) continues to pace the team, leading all pass-catchers in targets, receptions and routes run. WR Jaron Tibbs ($3,500) had his best performance of the year with five receptions on seven targets vs. Nebraska last week.
Wisconsin:
Top Play(s) – WR Will Pauling ($4,500) Boy, was last week frustrating for those that had over 3.5 reception props for Pauling. Have to think he gets back on track this week as Pauling leads the team with 31% of the target share and 30% of the team’s total receptions.
Fade – QB Braedyn Locke ($5,400) Maybe Tyler Van Dyke applies for a medical redshirt and the senior will return in 2025. Either that or Wisconsin dips into the transfer portal again next season because Locke is NOT the answer at quarterback for the Badgers. Outside of the Notre Dame performance, Purdue has played well against opposing QBs, not allowing more than 14 fantasy points to any player beyond Riley Leonard. And his production came largely on the ground. Locke can’t run.
Bargain Bin – Secondary WRs. Liked what I saw last week out of Vinny Anthony II catching the long bomb in the first half vs. USC and having a season-high four targets. He’s got the long speed that no other Wisconsin wideout possesses. The Badgers should get him more involved over someone like CJ Williams. Bryson Green continues to be the primary option beyond Will Pauling, playing 76% of the offensive snaps and second in targets (18).
Pivot Play – RB Chez Mellusi ($5,500) Someone in the Wisconsin backfield will potentially be in the GPP winning lineup, it’s a matter of who between Mellusi, Tawee Walker, Jackson Acker, Cade Yacamelli and even Darrion Dupree as they all saw carries last week vs. USC. Mellusi remains the safest option, but Walker showed why he got some offseason pub, rushing for 52 yards and two scores against the Trojans. Purdue has been gashed on the ground with three running backs this season scoring at least 20 fantasy points.
Best of the Rest – WR Trech Kekahuna ($3,000) Kekahuna was targeted five times vs. USC and now sits third on the team in total targets (10). Still playing just 29% of the offensive snaps as he’s the backup slot receiver to Pauling. Would favor Pauling, Green and Anthony far more than Kekahuna.
Injury Notes – n/a
UCLA vs. Penn State
Point-Spread: PSU -27.5
O/U Total: 46.5
Implied Score: PSU 37 – UCLA 9.5
Weather: 64 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
UCLA:
The Bruins currently rank dead last in the B1G in scoring offense, rushing offense and total offense, while possibly heading into Happy Valley with a backup quarterback (maybe not a bad thing) as Ethan Garbers is being held out of practices. What happens in these types of seasons typically is exactly what occurred last week vs. Oregon – start giving younger players some playing time as potential building blocks. That happened with 6-foot-2 freshman WR Kwazi Gilmer ($3,100) who found the end-zone in his first game of the season, jumping all the way to 81% of the team’s offensive snaps after not seeing one in the first three weeks. WR Rico Flores Jr. ($4,500) is the only other option, consistently seeing 5-7 targets weekly.
Penn State:
Top Play(s) – RB Nick Singleton ($7,300) and / or RB Kaytron Allen ($5,800) Last weekend was both, as the duo combined for over 200 rushing yards and a pair of touchdowns. That was also with Allen priced at $4.2k. Not the case this week so probably one would be the choice before stacking the PSU backfield. Singleton continues to get the projection edge as Allen isn’t used at all in the passing game.
Fade – Multiple Penn State pass-catchers. The Nittany Lions are 126th in pass play percentage and are four-TD favorites. Unlikely that Allar throws the ball more than 25 times on Saturday.
Bargain Bin – WR Julian Fleming ($4,200) I despise including Fleming here as the only time he’s topped 10 receiving yards in a game this season was against the 134th ranked scoring defense in the country in Kent State. But Fleming is on the field a ton as Penn State is primarily in 12 personnel with two tight ends and two receivers. While WR Omari Evans ($4,000) has been more productive, he’s on the field almost half the time that Fleming is.
Pivot Play – QB Drew Allar ($8,200) The run game dominated last week vs. Illinois, but this might be a chance for the passing game to take center stage. UCLA is 127th in pass D success rate and giving up around 22 fantasy points to opposing QBs. Allar didn’t account for a TD last week but wasn’t needed with the PSU run game churning out yards. WR Harrison Wallace ($5,200) has been quiet since Week 1 but could be in store for a juicy matchup with this UCLA secondary. Among teams playing this weekend, UCLA is allowing the fourth most fantasy points to opposing WRs.
Best of the Rest – TE Tyler Warren ($5,800) UCLA also hasn’t had much success stopping tight ends this season, allowing three different players to score more than 7 fantasy points in their respective matchups. LSU’s Mason Taylor – a comparable player talent-wise – scored 15 fantasy points vs. UCLA. Warren continues to pace Penn State in all receiving categories.
Injury Notes – n/a
Auburn vs. Georgia
Point-Spread: UGA -22
O/U Total: 52
Implied Score: UGA 37 – Aub 15
Weather: 83 degrees / 1% rain / 6 mph winds
Auburn:
Top Play(s) – WR Cam Coleman ($3,900) Coleman is WR2, but from a pricing standpoint, he makes the most sense to me, and we saw what another 5-star freshman did this past week to this UGA defense. Coleman was targeted six times vs. Oklahoma last Saturday with 82 yards on three receptions, playing nearly 80 % of the team’s offensive snaps. Coleman doesn’t need high target volume if he’s averaging almost over 20 yards per reception.
Fade – RB Jarquez Hunter ($5,500) Advanced metrics don’t love the UGA run defense, ranked 47th in EPA and 70th in success rate. But the Dawgs are allowing just 13.9 FPPG to opposing backfields this season, and completely shut down the Alabama run game outside of Jalen Milroe.
Bargain Bin – TE Rivaldo Fairweather ($3,400) Second on the team with 21 targets, playing just over 70% of the offensive snaps. UGA struggled some to defend the Alabama tight ends last week with a combined 15 fantasy points allowed to that position.
Pivot Play – QB Payton Thorne ($7,100) I cannot reasonably tout Thorne this week with good conscience, but we did see what another dual threat in Jalen Milroe did last week to this UGA defense with 45 fantasy points. Comparing Thorne and Milroe in the same sentence is blasphemous, but if you look back to last season, we did see Thorne have some of his best rushing performances in competitive matchups. Including the Georgia game where he rushed for 92 yards on 12 attempts. Thorne’s passing, obviously, leaves much to be desired.
Best of the Rest – WR KeAndre Lambert-Smith ($5,400) If there’s one positive right now to the Auburn offense, it’s the connection that Thorne and Lambert-Smith have developed, with over 220 receiving yards combined in the last two games. While sustaining long drives is impossible with the turnover-prone QB play, Auburn has been very good at generating explosive plays, the same ones that game Georgia all kinds of trouble last week. KAL is averaging well over 20 yards per reception.
Injury Notes – n/a
Georgia:
Top Play(s) – RB Trevor Etienne ($7,000) Auburn isn’t dominant at any one thing defensively in 2024, and I think we saw a true Georgia rotation this year in competitive matchups last week as Etienne dominated the backfield market share as no other UGA running back had more than two rushing attempts. Auburn has allowed four running backs to score more than 12 fantasy points this season, none of which being a high-profile name either outside of Ja’Quinden Jackson.
Fade – WR Colbie Young ($5,000) Young was relatively productive last week in a pass-happy script with six targets but is still playing less than 50% of the snaps each of the last three weeks. For once in our lifetime, Georgia isn’t rotating much at running back or wide receiver, and Young is WR4.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Not playing any Georgia players sub-$5k.
Pivot Play – QB Carson Beck ($8,800) The Auburn pass defense is the better of the two defensive components, having yet to allow a QB to score more than 20 fantasy points this season. But as we’ve seen this season and in year’s past, it’s not just pass-heavy game scripts like last week that Beck is productive. Even in a blowout of Clemson, Beck still scored 21 fantasy points. 22-point projection at this salary is ‘fine.’
Best of the Rest – WRs. Whereas last week, it made some sense to stack UGA receivers as the Dawgs were an underdog to Alabama, that’s not the case this week. But as we mentioned above, Georgia isn’t rotating much beyond the top three wideouts, where Dom Lovett, Arian Smith and Dillon Bell are all playing over 65% of the team’s offensive snaps. Having one in your lineup makes sense, even without Beck. Five receivers have scored 13 or more fantasy points against Auburn this season already.
Injury Notes – Same as last week. Don’t expect Roderick Robinson, London Humphreys or Sacovie White to play.
Ole Miss vs. South Carolina
Point-Spread: Miss -9
O/U Total: 53
Implied Score: Miss 31 – SC 22
Weather: 81 degrees / 7% rain / 6 mph winds
Ole Miss:
Top Play(s) – WR Tre Harris ($8,900) Harris was one of a handful of names for Ole Miss to show up on the Wednesday injury report, but we’re writing this up under the assumption he’ll play. The senior wideout is a clear alpha, averaging 12 targets per game and over 160 yards receiving, now the WR2 in all of college fantasy football behind only San Jose State’s Nick Nash.
Fade – QB Jaxson Dart ($9,900) Not a full fade, but this is just precaution here to limit exposure facing this South Carolina defense, especially after seeing this offense stalling multiple times last week vs. Kentucky. South Carolina is allowing just 9.9 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks and 16th in pass D success rate. There’s better / cheaper options available.
Bargain Bin – RB Ulysses Bentley IV ($3,800) IF, and I mean only IF, the reporting is accurate that both Henry Parrish Jr. and Matt Jones are questionable and less than 100% healthy. Bentley is likely next man up and has proven to be somewhat capable over the years while with the Rebels. South Carolina is 102nd in rush D success rate so one of the RBs, whoever plays the most, will be an option this week.
Pivot Play – WR Antwane Wells ($4,500) Wells was completely nullified vs. Kentucky with just two targets on the day. That said, stock up if Tre Harris is indeed less than 100%. And most importantly, revenge matchup storyline against Wells’ former team.
Best of the Rest – WR Jordan Watkins ($4,700) Watkins was shut out completely against Kentucky, as many of the wideouts were, but has played 60% of the offensive snaps in the three games coming back from injury and did find the end-zone in each of the first two. He could play a more important role if Cayden Lee does not play. South Carolina did allow 17 fantasy points to LSU tight end Mason Taylor, and TE Caden Prieskorn ($3,800) is just as talented and a threat in the passing game.
Injury Notes – We’ll stay tuned to the injury report leading up until kickoff here with so many top Ole Miss players deemed as questionable. But one thing we should understand – don’t ever trust Lane Kiffin or the SEC with accurate injury reporting.
South Carolina:
There’s too much up in the air right now to fully buy-in to anyone on the South Carolina offense. And if you do, it’ll be a late swap before kickoff. Both LaNorris Sellers and Rocket Sanders are questionable to play Saturday, but this isn’t a similar situation to Ole Miss. Both are legitimately questionable and there’s a high likelihood that both will be limited. Sanders is a definite fade as he might be closer to doubtful than questionable at this point. The team beat writer also said, “it would not be a surprise to see Robby Ashford incorporated into the game plan.” That nullifies the QB position if both Ashford and Sellers play.
Virginia Tech vs. Stanford
Point-Spread: VT -8.5
O/U Total: 49.5
Implied Score: VT 29 – Stan 20.5
Weather: 87 degrees / 0% rain / 4 mph winds
Virginia Tech:
Top Play(s) – QB Kyron Drones ($8,500) You’ll read why below as to why Drones is in the top spot and not Bhayshul Tuten. Quarterbacks have found plenty of success against this Stanford defense – Cade Klubnik 36 fpts, Kyle McCord 25 fpts and Josh Hoover 26 fpts. Drones’ dual-threat ability should give this defense some troubles and he’ll likely see low ownership at this pricing because there is a combustibility risk too.
Fade – RB Malachi Thomas ($3,500) or WR Ali Jennings ($3,400) So long as Tuten is healthy (he is), then Thomas is a non-factor, with more than four carries in just one game this season. Jennings did end up playing vs. Miami, but just six offensive snaps. Not trustworthy at this point.
Bargain Bin – The Gosnell Brothers. Stephen Gosnel stepped in for Jennings last week and led the team with six targets and the most routes run of any wideout. Benji Gosnell is the TE1 with Nick Gallo out with injury, playing nearly 80% of the team’s offensive snaps. Stanford has done OK against opposing tight ends, allowing a combined 20 fantasy points to Clemson’s top two options. They limited Syracuse’s Oronde Gadsden to just 3.2 fantasy points in their matchup.
Pivot Play – WR Jaylin Lane ($5,700) or WR Da’Quan Felton ($3,800) Wide receivers have had their way with this Stanford secondary with six different wideouts scoring at least 15 fantasy points. Slot receivers (Lane) and boundary receivers (Felton) have all had success, so pairing one with Drones if you should go that route would be a sound strategy (but not required).
Best of the Rest – RB Bhayshul Tuten ($7,600) Not sure we need to be scared off by the No. 1 statistical run defense in the ACC, as Stanford allows just 3.02 yards per carry. On one hand, that includes matchups against Cam Cook, Phil Mafah and LeQuint Allen – three dynamic running backs. But the Cardinal are also just 61st in rush D success rate, so the high-level numbers don’t paint the whole picture. Opposing RBs are averaging just 12.6 FPPG this season against the Cardinal, so be cautious with how much Tuten exposure you have.
Injury Notes – Watch for any Ali Jennings news which could impact Stephen Gosnel’s viability.
Stanford:
Top Play(s) – WR Elic Ayomanor ($6,400) Just assume at this point that if Stanford is on the slate, then Ayomanor will be the team’s top play. Double-digit targets in three of four games played, though potentially that impact changes if the backup QB is in. Justin Lamson is a capable enough thrower to support a wide receiver in fantasy. As for the matchup, it’s solid. Five different receivers have scored 14 or more fantasy points already this season vs. the Hokies.
Fade – WR Tiger Bachmeier ($4,200) With Emmett Mosley back in the lineup, Bachmeier is now the team’s fifth option in the passing game. Just one target last week vs. Clemson.
Bargain Bin – TE Sam Roush ($3,400) We’ll continue to promote Sam Roush as a bargain bin option if he remains at this pricing each week. He was held out of the stat sheet against Clemson but is still playing well over 85% of the offensive snaps each week. Virginia Tech has allowed two different tight ends already to score more than 14 fantasy points in their respective matchups.
Pivot Play – RB Micah Ford ($4,100) Stanford has gotten the ground game going in recent weeks and could do so even more if Justin Lamson gets the nod. He’ll run just as much as Ashton Daniels did. The Cardinal rushed for 1,400 yards as a team in 2023. They have over 400 yards in just the last two games alone, averaging over five yards per carry, spearheaded by Ford who had 122 on the road against a ranked opponent.
Best of the Rest – WR Emmett Mosley ($4,700) or WR Ismael Cisse ($4,600) The 3-star freshman Mosley made his season debut, and it was more than expected, though he was getting hype ever since the spring. Seven receptions and a touchdown on eight targets. Cisse was targeted just three times and saw his playing time drop from 81% of snaps to just 58% vs. Clemson with Mosley’s return.
Injury Notes – QB Ashton Daniels ($7,400) Rumors about a few Stanford players on offense potentially down with injury, namely Daniels who HC Troy Taylor said there is “a chance” he’ll play on Saturday. If Daniels is out, QB Justin Lamson ($7,000) will step in his place, and is a capable replacement that can definitely run.
Iowa vs. Ohio State
Point-Spread: OSU -18
O/U Total: 45
Implied Score: OSU 31.5 – Iowa 13.5
Weather: 74 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Iowa:
Can RB Kaleb Johnson ($8,600) run on Ohio State? Can’t delve into the Ohio State defense because of the cupcake schedule in the month of November so they’re stats are skewed. Iowa is actually much improved over past seasons both in the backfield (obviously) and up front as the Hawkeye offensive line ranks 65th in line yards. May not seem great on the surface, but Iowa has ranked 120th or lower in that category in each of the last two years. Iowa is 75th in rush success rate and 67th in EPA per rush play. We know Johnson will get the ball 20 times, if possible, but those numbers still aren’t what we love to see for a $8.6k player. Mix some exposure to Johnson in with GPP lineups, but not a must-have by any means.
Ohio State:
Top Play(s) – WR Jeremiah Smith ($7,600) Big L by me this offseason stating that the 5-star freshman would not be a fantasy factor in 2024. I’ll own it as he looks like the second coming of Calvin Johnson the way he is posting highlight reel receptions nearly every week. While the overall pass D numbers for the Hawkeyes are solid, opposing receivers are having their way with this secondary. Already four different wideouts have scored 18 or more fantasy points vs. Iowa this season.
Fade – RB James Peoples ($4,000) Our prediction was half correct last week with Peoples. We correctly faded him, stating that he wouldn’t find the end-zone now that Ohio State was into B1G play. But we missed on the fact that he was still a factor with 10 rushing attempts in the blowout of Michigan State. This’ll be a closer matchup where the top two in Judkins/Henderson will dominate the touches.
Bargain Bin – WR Carnell Tate ($4,200) Same logic about Jeremiah Smith – aside from the highlight reel catches – applies to Tate with this Iowa matchup. Third on the team in targets and receptions, and first in routes run. Not breaking the bank at all for someone that will get you 3-4 per week.
Pivot Play – WR Emeka Egubka ($6,800) This probably isn’t the matchup for multiple Ohio State pass-catchers in a lineup, but we’re going to assume that either Smith and Tate will see the highest ownership of the OSU receivers. This is also a good matchup for Egbuka in the slot as Iowa allowed 24 fantasy points to Iowa State’s Jaylin Noel, the next best slot receiver faced this season. While just two TDs, Egbuka still leads the Buckeyes in targets with 30.
Best of the Rest – QB Will Howard ($7,500) Howard will show up on the optimals most likely because of his pricing which is difficult to rationalize given how consistent he’s been, scoring 22 or more fantasy points in every game to begin the season. Is the matchup great? Eh. Iowa has yet to allow an opposing QB to score more than 19 fantasy points in a game this season and are 23rd in pass D success rate. Hot take prediction – this is the week Howard doesn’t hit that 20-point mark. Pick your poison between RB Quinshon Judkins ($7,700) or RB TreVeyon Henderson ($6,800), but do not stack together. Maybe an Ohio State follower knows the answer to this question, but I don’t believe there is any scientific or analytical process to decide between which if the two is the primary option that week. Only Chip Kelly knows.
Injury Notes – n/a
West Virginia vs. Oklahoma State
Point-Spread: Ok St -3.5
O/U Total: 65.5
Implied Score: Ok St 34.5 – WV 31
Weather: 92 degrees / 0% rain / 11 mph winds
West Virginia:
Top Play(s) – QB Garrett Greene ($8,000) Greene remains the one known factor on this West Virginia offense as the targets are typically spread out and the running back situation is a committee that can go either way between two options. We focus on Oklahoma State’s porous run defense, but the pass D isn’t much better. And Greene can hurt you both ways. Tough to see a path where Greene busts because of the dual-threat ability which makes him a solid option at $8k.
Fade – WR Jaden Bray ($3,500) Bray played just 26% of the game vs. Kansas two Saturday’s ago and that was with both Preston Fox and Justin Robinson not playing. Add two more bodies back into the mix potentially this week and Bray keeps getting pushed down the depth chart.
Bargain Bin – TE Kole Taylor ($3,400) It’s one of the top articles on the West Virginia 247 Sports home page, discussing how tight ends have given the Oklahoma State defenses some trouble already in the first month of the season. Four tight ends have scores over seven fantasy points vs. the Cowboys, including 24 from Utah’s Brant Kuithe. Taylor is third on the team in targets, receptions and second in routes run.
Pivot Play – WR Hudson Clement ($4,100) Season-high nine targets for Clement vs. Kansas for 150 yards in the win. With that said, Clement didn’t have a single occurrence last season where he posted double-digit fantasy points in back-to-back games. Four wide receivers have scored 16 or more fantasy points against Oklahoma State this season.
Best of the Rest – RBs. Seems like CJ Donaldson has held the slight edge over Jahiem White since that 4th quarter fumble in the loss to Pittsburgh. Do not stack the WV backfield. Pick one or the other here and ride that option. Oklahoma State is dead last in the Big 12 in rushing yards allowed and 80th in rush D success rate. WV should be able to run on the Cowboys with relative ease. WR Rodney Gallagher ($3,400) played a season-high 78% of the offensive snaps vs. Kansas, targeted five times with Preston Fox out of the lineup. I would check on Fox’s availability pregame to ensure Gallagher is still an option.
Injury Notes – n/a
Oklahoma State:
Top Play(s) – WR De’Zhaun Stribling ($6,100) and / or WR Brennan Presley ($7,400) Starting to see some separation between these two and Rashod Owens in terms of production as Stribling / Presley combine for seven of the team’s 12 receiving touchdowns. Owens has just one drop, but the 50% catch rate is limiting his reception totals. West Virginia has given up big performances to both boundary and slot receivers so tough to decipher who is the better option of the two. Luke Grimm (slot) scored 31 fantasy points in his matchup with WV. Harrison Wallace (boundary) scored 28 in the opener vs. the Mountaineers.
Fade – RB Ollie Gordon ($9,000) Watch, just when we say fade Ollie Gordon he’s going to go off for 40 fantasy points and break the slate. But the advanced stats say to avoid him at this price. West Virginia is 20th in rush D success rate and 35th in EPA per rush play defensively. Oklahoma State still ranks 131st in rush success rate. At the very least, minimize your exposure.
Bargain Bin – WR Talyn Shettron ($3,400) With Rashod Owens seeing a slight decline, that has allowed for Shettron to emerge a bit with three receptions in each of the last three games with a combined 18 targets in that span. Last year it was exclusively three wide receivers only for Oklahoma State. Now, it’s four.
Pivot Play – WR Rashod Owens ($4,800) Numbers aren’t as good as last year, but $4.8k is still relatively cheap for a player that is averaging seven targets and around 70% of the team’s offensive snaps per game. He might see the lowest ownership of Oklahoma State’s top four receivers.
Best of the Rest – QB Alan Bowman ($7,600) The issue with Bowman right now is the potential of him getting replaced is performing poorly as he did briefly in the Utah matchup. Rostering Bowman could kill your lineup immediately. Not the worst matchup as West Virginia has allowed two quarterbacks to score 25 or more fantasy points this season.
Injury Notes – n/a
Rutgers vs. Nebraska
Point-Spread: Neb -7
O/U Total: 40
Implied Score: Neb 23.5 – RU 16.5
Weather: 92 degrees / 0% rain / 22 mph winds
Rutgers:
Top Play(s) – RB Kyle Monangai ($8,100) Similar argument here for Monangai as we had for Kaleb Johnson above with his Ohio State matchup. You cannot completely fade a running back that’ll get 20+ touches, but don’t go overboard with your exposure because of the matchup. Nebraska is allowing just 10.7 FPPG to opposing backfields this season with no RB1 scoring more than 8 fantasy points in their matchup with the Cornhuskers.
Fade – QB Athan Kaliakmanis ($6,100) The Greek Rifle was a fade last week on a two-game slate. You can imagine our thoughts then here with a 14-game slate.
Bargain Bin – WR Ian Strong ($3,800) Strong is coming off his first 100-yard performance of the season last week against Washington and has now played over 87% of the team’s offensive snaps in each of the last two weeks. Nebraska has allowed three different receivers to score over 20 fantasy points already this season. TE Kenny Fletcher ($3,800) is third in targets (19), first in receptions (16) and first in touchdowns (2).
Pivot Play – WR Dymere Miller ($4,600) Strong got the headlines last week, but Miller has been the most consistent receiving threat for the Scarlet Knights, leading the team with 25 targets and the most routes run of any wideout.
Best of the Rest – n/a – No playable options beyond those listed above for Rutgers.
Injury Notes – n/a
Nebraska:
Top Play(s) – RB Dante Dowdell ($5,300) We’re used to a Greg Schiano defense being above average to good at stopping the run. Not this season. Rutgers is allowing 25 FPPG to opposing backfields and are 115th in rush D success rate. When you allow 17 fantasy points to an Akron running back – the worst rushing team in the entire country – you have problems on defense.
Fade – RB Rahmir Johnson ($4,500) Emmett Johnson being back in the lineup relegates Rahmir Johnson to RB3 duties, and he hasn’t been a major factor in the passing game outside of the one 9-target performance vs. Colorado.
Bargain Bin – WR Jacory Barney Jr. ($3,400) We were unsure last week if there was a sure-fire WR3 for the Huskers beyond Neyor and Banks. That seems all but confirmed now with Barney who played a season-high 41% of snaps and found the end-zone with 66 rushing yards on four attempts. Seems as though Nebraska needs to continue finding more ways to get the freshman involved on offense.
Pivot Play – WR Isaiah Neyor ($5,000) or WR Jahmal Banks ($3,800) Banks is severely underpriced again for a receiver averaging four receptions on five targets per game with the most routes run on the team. We saw another boundary receiver dominate this same Rutgers defense a week ago with Washington’s Denzel Boston going for 30+ fantasy points. Neyor and Banks are of the same architype of WR.
Best of the Rest – QB Dylan Raiola ($5,400) At this price, Raiola is a playable candidate, though his upside is very limited in these types of low-scoring matchups as he’s a non-runner and game script doesn’t work in his favor at a touchdown favorite. Just one QB has scored over 20 fantasy points this season against Rutgers and that was last week with Will Rogers who was forced to throw with the Huskies trailing.
Injury Notes – n/a
Alabama vs. Vanderbilt
Point-Spread: Ala -22
O/U Total: 54
Implied Score: Ala 38 – Vandy 16
Weather: 84 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Alabama:
Top Play(s) – QB Jalen Milroe ($10,400) Milroe is our No. 1 overall ranked player this week in projections and has a juicy matchup with a Vanderbilt defense that is allowing 23 FPPG to opposing QBs and 74th in pass D success rate. Only reservation is the let-down effect after the dramatic Georgia victory.
Fade – WR Kobe Prentice ($5,000) As we saw last week, outside of one drive where Prentice caught his only two passes on the day, he’s been relegated to backup duties as he played just 30% of the offensive snaps.
Bargain Bin – TE CJ Dippre ($3,200) Season-highs for Dippre last week with four receptions on six targets, as Alabama played a lot of two-tight end sets vs. the Dawgs. Vanderbilt has struggled to stop the tight end position so far, with three different players scoring over eight fantasy points.
Pivot Play – RBs. Defensive strength numbers against the run aren’t bad for the Commodores, ranking 12th in rush D success rate and 41st in EPA per run play. Fantasy points allowed is a different story as both Virginia Tech and Missouri’s RB1s had a field day, each scoring over 23 fpts on the day. Don’t stack Justice Haynes or Jam Miller together in a lineup, but one could be a strong pivot if not rostering Jalen Milroe.
Best of the Rest – WR Ryan Williams ($7,300) Talent on the field is right up there with Jeremiah Smith as we saw last week, though questionable decision making if that was actually the Instagram profile pic he used after the win vs. Georgia. WRs have dominated this Vandy secondary so far this season with five different players scoring at least 11 fantasy points. Just two weeks ago Georgia State’s Ted Hurst went for 31 on this defense. WR Germie Bernard ($5,000) is now the clear WR2 behind Williams but is coming off a season-best 8 targets vs. UGA and plays over 90% of the offensive snaps. He could be the pivot off Williams.
Injury Notes – n/a
Vanderbilt:
Top Play(s) – QB Diego Pavia ($6,800) I love the quote from starting safety for Alabama Malachi Moore on Pavia this week. “He’s a wild card. He’s a player that’s not scared of anything. He has nothing to lose, and those players are dangerous.” Alabama is 100th nationally in rush D success rate, and already had trouble stopping one dual-threat QB earlier in the year in Byrum Brown who topped 100 yards vs. the Tide. Pavia can do the same thing.
Fade – WRs. Vanderbilt is 115th in pass play percentage this season with zero difference makers at the wide receiver position. Just one wideout has more than 100 receiving yards this season.
Bargain Bin – TE Eli Stowers ($4,000) Good on DK from past seasons of actually having Stowers listed at his correct position and not at quarterback which he played like three years ago at A&M. The New Mexico State transfer already has familiarity of the offensive system and has close to 36% of the team’s target share. 16 receptions on 23 targets in just the last two games alone.
Pivot Play – RB Sedrick Alexander ($4,700) As mentioned in the fade section, the Dores don’t want to throw the football if forced not to. Alexander has scored a touchdown in three of four games played this season and four different running backs have hit double-digit fantasy points this season.
Best of the Rest – n/a. The three players above are the only options for Vandy. Diego Pavia is running the football 20 times this week if he’s healthy.
Injury Notes – n/a
