Missouri vs. Florida
Point-Spread: UF -10.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Implied Score: UF 32.5 – Mizzou 22
Weather: 84 degrees / 0% rain / 4 mph winds
Missouri:
Top Play(s) – WR Dominic Lovett ($3,800) HC Eli Drinkwitz called Lovett 50-50 to play on Saturday with a lower leg injury. Team leader in receptions, targets, yards per route run and yards per reception. And it’s really not that close between Lovett and the WR2 Luther Burden.
Fade – QB Brady Cook ($5,700) If Brady Cook is not getting us rushing yardage, he is not a fantasy asset. And in two SEC matchups, he has -12 yards on 14 attempts. We’re never playing Cook in a main slate like this, and I will fade him completely but I do want to throw this out there in his defense for this matchup in particular. Hendon Hooker – 100 yards and a touchdown on the ground. Gerry Bohanon – 100 yards on the ground. Cam Rising – 60 yards and a TD on the ground. Dual-threat QBs have gashed the Gators this season so far.
Bargain Bin – WR Barrett Banister ($3,500) There aren’t many trustworthy Missouri receivers beyond Lovett that can get open consistently this year. Banister might be the other, ranked third on the team with 14 receptions on 22 targets. Issue with Banister is his 6.9 aDOT and 1.22 yards per route run. He’ll get your PPR points, but his receptions don’t go for any yardage.
Pivot Play – RBs. I’d probably still favor Nathaniel Peat over Cody Schrader here as he’s on the field more, but both options “might” be viable against this Florida run defense that is 113th in the country. The Gators not being able to stop opposing QBs from running the ball has played a major role in that, but Florida is also allowing 19.1 FPPG to opposing RB1s with Jabari Small, Brian Battie and Tavion Thomas all having big outings against this defense.
Best of the Rest – WR Luther Burden ($5,100) The 5-star freshman is on the field plenty, is second in targets and total routes, but he gains less yardage than even Barrett Banister at 0.83 yards per route run. Value goes up if Lovett does not end up playing, but has really done little this season to justify playing him at this salary.
Injury Notes – See above on Lovett.
Florida:
Top Play(s) – QB Anthony Richardson ($6,800) Sundays are my recovery days from the weekend so I didn’t watch a single second of Florida’s beatdown of Eastern Washington. But Anthony Richardson appears to have turned a slight corner since his season-low performance against USF a few weeks back. Back-to-back 200 yard passing games for the first time in his career. 800 total yards and six total touchdowns in the last two weeks. Florida averaged 630 total yards of offense in that span. Missouri has fared well against opposing QBs, allowing just 16.7 FPPG, but there aren’t many fantasy-relevant options for the Gators outside of Richardson.
Fade – Montrell Johnson ($6,300) All you have to do here is look at the Tennessee box score. Montrell Johnson is the best running back (right now) in the room. But there is a three-way split for carries, and the staff does not seem destined to cut back on Nay’Quan Wright’s ($3,600) attempts – even though they should. So, if you want a Florida running back, grab a bargain with Trevor Etienne ($4,000) or even Wright because they’re getting similar workloads.
Bargain Bin – Nay’Quan Wright ($3,600) See above. This coaching staff is insistent on getting Wright snaps each week, seeing between 6-8 rushing attempts too. Production isn’t always there, but this is close to what you can ask for from a $3.6k player in Week 6.
Pivot Play – WR Justin Shorter ($4,000) The former 5-star caught just one pass against Eastern Washington, but that was all that was needed as he went 75-yards for a touchdown. Trending upwards the last few weeks where he was targeted a season-high 12 times against Tennessee the game prior. We don’t normally care about Florida receivers, but Shorter is cheap enough to where I think we can consider pairing possibly with Richardson (not necessary to stack).
Best of the Rest – Xzavier Henderson ($5,400) Would much rather roster Shorter at $1.4k less, but Henderson has been the most consistent of the Florida pass-catchers with a team-high 20 receptions, and second in both targets (28) and second in routes run.
Injury Notes – n/a
Tennessee vs. LSU
Point-Spread: Tenn -2.5
O/U Total: 63.5
Implied Score: Tenn 33 – LSU 30.5
Weather: 76 degrees / 0% rain / 11 mph winds
Tennessee:
Top Play(s) – QB Hendon Hooker ($8,100) Analytically, the LSU pass defense ranks very highly. But then you see the Tigers giving up 337 yards and two touchdowns to Robby Ashford, and your concerns about fading Hendon Hooker go away. 16th in pass play success rate, but LSU is also 119th in pass explosiveness. Bad news when facing Hooker and this passing scheme that is third nationally in yards per attempt.
Fade – RB Jaylen Wright ($4,900) Wright has surpassed my expectations this season, holding down the No. 2 job over some talented FR and averaging close to five yards a carry. But much of his production has come either in garbage time or in the matchup against Akron where we didn’t see Jabari Small due to injury.
Bargain Bin – WR Ramel Keyton ($3,800) Keyton is a distant third in the pecking order of options in the passing game, but will start in place of Cedric Tillman Saturday. Was targeted just three times against Florida but ran the same amount of routes as both Jalin Hyatt and Bru McCoy so he’s seeing 100% of the reps at Tillman’s spot with no rotation.
Pivot Play – WR Bru McCoy ($5,700) We mentioned it above, but the best part about the Tennessee WR situation without Tillman is we’re see absolutely zero rotation between the starters and backups. McCoy, Keyton and Jalin Hyatt ($6,800) played 89% or more of the offensive snaps against Florida two weeks ago, and would expect a similar situation versus LSU with a spread of 2.5. McCoy actually led the team with 102 yards on seven targets in the win over the Gators, averaging 20.4 yards per reception and 2.83 yards per route run. This isn’t a double-stack situation with both Hyatt and McCoy in a lineup with Hooker, but I’d like to get one of the two at least.
Best of the Rest – RB Jabari Small ($6,400) Small is probably closer to a fade than a play here for me. LSU is giving up the seventh fewest FPPG to opposing running backs this season and are fourth in the SEC in overall run defense. Small hasn’t been overly impressive, averaging a yard less per carry than he did a year ago, though he is finding the end-zone with four rushing TDs.
Injury Notes – WR Cedric Tillman ($6,900) Reports coming out this week seem to indicate that we could see Tillman return to the field prior to his originally-scheduled timeline but is deemed “questionable at best” this week. Strong lean towards Tillman not playing – if that wasn’t already a guarantee.
LSU:
Top Play(s) – QB Jayden Daniels ($7,300) Oh boy, here we go. Player’s only meetings being held between Daniels and his WRs trying to get on the same page. Talk has been consistent all week long. LSU needs to push the ball further down field and utilize its playmakers on the outside as the Tigers rank 12th of 14 SEC teams in yards per attempt. Daniels’ 6.9 yards per attempt and 7.0 aDOT is worst among SEC starting quarterbacks. That’ll have to change against Tennessee to keep up on the scoreboard, and the secondary is where the Vols are most vulnerable.
Fade – RB John Emery Jr. ($4,800) Most expensive running back in a RBBC that saw the least amount of offensive snaps last week of the three options against Auburn. The undoubted strength of the Tennessee defense is stopping the run, ranking 36th in rush play success rate, 12th in explosiveness and giving up just 12.8 FPPG to opposing RB1s.
Bargain Bin – RB Josh Williams ($3,000) I find coach’s quotes to be hilarious sometimes. Brian Kelly states that Josh Williams “has been kind of the guy for us” yet last week was the first time we saw him get more than five carries in a game. Only rushed for 68 yards against Auburn but did see 17 rushing attempts. Any running back getting double-digit carries at min pricing is going to be on the radar, though expect both Noah Cain and John Emery to be a factor still.
Pivot Play – WR Malik Nabers ($5,300) Nabers continues to pace the WR group, ranking first in targets (31), first in catches (22) and averaging 2.10 yards per route run which is almost double his counterpart Kayshon Boutte ($4,800). Talk has been very loud this week about the LSU passing game and the need for improvements, so I’m very curious to see how this matchup transpires. WR1s are averaging 18.6 FPPG this season against the Vols. LSU has to exploit the back seven of the Tennessee defense.
Best of the Rest – TE Mason Taylor ($3,000) This min priced play is a longer shot than Josh Williams so I’d refrain from doing this unless in a dire situation of roster construction. Tight ends were always an integral part of Mike Denbrock’s offensive system at Cincinnati, we just thought it would be Jack Bech instead. 17 of Taylor’s 23 targets this season have come in the last three weeks.
Injury Notes – n/a
Arkansas vs. Mississippi State
Point-Spread: Miss St -8.5
O/U Total: 61.5
Implied Score: Miss St 35 – Ark 26.5
Weather: 63 degrees / 0% rain / 9 mph winds
Arkansas:
Top Play(s) – RB Raheim Sanders ($6,200) KJ Jefferson potentially being out doesn’t necessarily help Sanders, but I’m also not shying away here, particularly at just $6.2k. A top 10 running back in the country getting 20 touches every single week, facing a Mississippi State defense that is not what it’s been the last few seasons. The Bulldogs are just 82nd in rush play success rate and have allowed over four yards a carry to Memphis, LSU and Texas A&M – the only legitimate running games they’ve face this season. Sanders should be fine.
Fade – QB Cade Fortin ($5,800) We are playing it safe with our projections with Cade Fortin inserted as the starter. Beat writers are stating Jefferson will travel with the team to Starkville, but that we won’t have clarity until an hour before. Message boarders paint a different picture, which we always take with a grain of salt, but someone with some credence it appears is stating that we could see multiple QBs on Saturday. That also means Malik Hornsby ($4,500) will get some run as a wildcat option potentially. He’s not playable unless it’s announced Hornsby is the starter in my eyes.
Bargain Bin – WR Matt Landers ($3,500) Production wasn’t there against Alabama but still led the team with eight targets and leads the Razorbacks in routes run this season. I’m less inclined to roster an Arkansas receiver if Jefferson sits, but Landers is cheap enough and involved in the offense enough to consider.
Pivot Play – WR Ketron Jackson ($4,200) File this away for future weeks when we have a better situation, but Jackson is having a min-breakout with five receptions on eight targets and two touchdowns the last few weeks. Snap counts have nearly doubled in that span, and it looks like he’s overtaken Warren Thompson in the starting lineup. Thompson, I believe, was scene at the end of the bench vs. Alabama last week, not seeing a single snap.
Best of the Rest – WR Jadon Haselwood ($6,600) Essentially a fade here as there is not a wide gap in targets or production between Haselwood and the other Arkansas receivers, and the gap is massive in terms of their salaries. Absolute fade.
Injury Notes – QB KJ Jefferson ($6,300) See above in the fade section.
Mississippi St:
Top Play(s) – WR Will Rogers ($7,700) Walking wounded in the Arkansas secondary with multiple starters either out for the season or unavailable for this week. Defensive coordinator Barry Odom has had success limiting this Air Raid the last two seasons, but Arkansas has apparently shifted philosophies from running less drop coverage to more man-to-man. If MSU’s offensive line holds up, Rogers could pick this secondary apart.
Fade – RB Jo’Quavious Marks ($5,700) I typically fade both running backs in DFS as there essentially is zero upside here, particularly if both Marks and Dillon Johnson ($6,100) are healthy and in the lineup. Snaps were split evenly between the two against A&M, but it was Johnson who saw double the production with 14 carries and five targets, vs just 7 and 5, respectively, for Marks. While still bottom of the country in terms of rushing, the Bulldogs are actually vastly improved over last year, averaging 30 more yards on the ground in 2022.
Bargain Bin – WR Justin Robinson ($3,000) Significant bump in playing time for the Georgia transfer last week, playing the most offensive snaps of any Mississippi State receiver, and was tied for the team lead with seven targets. Robinson becoming more comfortable with the Air Raid system? Caleb Ducking’s ($5,500) playing time was cut in half – not sure of the reasoning behind that.
Pivot Play – Playing Will Rogers naked A Mississippi State receiver has topped 20 fantasy points just three times in five games. Two of which from Ducking and the other being sophomore Rara Thomas ($6,100) who is fourth on the team in routes run and fourth among receivers in offensive snaps played. Choosing the correct MSU receiver can be a crapshoot, and the payoff isn’t always worth it anyways.
Best of the Rest – WR Rufus Harvey ($6,200) If Harvey was $4.2k, he would be under consideration, ranking second on the team in targets and receptions. Double-digit fantasy points in four of the five games played, but slot receivers have limited upside in this system, unless they’re getting 10+ targets a game. Harvey is barely averaging half of that. High floor, very low upside play.
Injury Notes – n/a
TCU vs. Kansas
Point-Spread: TCU -7
O/U Total: 67.5
Implied Score: TCU 37.5 – KU 30.5
Weather: 61 degrees / 10% rain / 6 mph winds
TCU:
Top Play(s) – RB Kendre Miller ($6,000) Doesn’t really see heavy volume, averaging just 12.7 attempts per game, but Miller does control the TCU backfield with 39% market share. Has obliterated his last two opponents, averaging nine yards per carry and 54 fantasy points in total against SMU and Oklahoma. Now, those are two of the worst rush defenses in the country, Kansas is not Alabama here. 87th in rush play success rate defensively, 79th in explosiveness and allowing close to 16 FPPG to opposing RB1s.
Fade – WR Quentin Johnston ($6,800) This doesn’t change the fact that I still have a feeling a slate-breaking performance will happen this season. But Johnston has simply been an anchor to any DFS lineup in 2022 and he’s still not cheap enough to consider. Johnston should have a size and athleticism advantage against this Kansas secondary, but it’s a Jayhawk defense that does a good job in suppressing explosiveness, ranked 52nd nationally.
Bargain Bin – RB Emari Demercado ($3,000) Credit the TCU offensive line with this selection. The Horned Frogs are 8th in Power Success, 9th in second level yards, 43rd in stuff rate, 32nd in line yards and 13th in rush play success rate. Top third in the country in most rushing metrics. Similar situation to Miller where Demercado isn’t seeing much volume, just seven attempts per game, but averaging eight yards a carry.
Pivot Play – Playing Max Duggan naked. Really no reason you have to force a TCU receiver into your lineup to pair with Duggan. Johnston leads the team at just 18% target share. Nobody has more than two touchdown receptions. Derius Davis ($6,300) leads the team in catches (14) but has run the fourth most routes among TCU wideouts. Taye Barber’s ($5,100) breakout week consisted of a busted coverage play where NOBODY was around him for a 73-yard touchdown. Almost rather go bang for your buck with Savion Williams ($4,200) who has converted on every single one of his 10 targets and scored a touchdown in each of the last two weeks.
Best of the Rest – QB Max Duggan ($7,200) 28-point projection at just $7.2k puts Duggan squarely in the conversation as one of our two quarterbacks for the main slate. The Kansas defense is not overly impressive in any one category on defense, and particularly against opposing quarterbacks where they’re allowing 28.3 FPPG. Three different quarterbacks have scored 27 points or more against the Jayhawks this season already.
Injury Notes – n/a
Kansas:
Top Play(s) – RB Devin Neal ($5,400) I’m not sure this backfield just magically turns into 25 carries a game for Devin Neal as the coaching staff has always been confident in the backfield depth, but there’s no doubt Neal’s stock goes up because of the injury to Daniel Hishaw Jr. But this is also an offense that runs the ball 62% of the time – 13th highest rate in the country – and the two backups have combined for just 23 carries this season. 15 carries for Neal is probably the floor.
Fade – WRs. Four double-digit fantasy performances from Kansas’ top three receivers this year. We hit on the strength of the TCU defense below, so it’s already a tough matchup. Just two WRs all year long have scored more than 11 fantasy points against this Horned Frogs secondary. There are two arguments for Kansas receivers if you’re intent on playing them. Game script is one. And the fact the top three WRs consist of 60% of the team target share. At least we know where the passes from Jalon Daniels are going, so its easy to predict.
Bargain Bin – RB Sevion Morrison ($3,000) Does Kansas ride Devin Neal or do we see a 50-50 split similar to when Hishaw was in the lineup? OR do we see a three-way split with Minnesota transfer Ky Thomas who is expected to play this week. I feel guilty even listing this because there is no chance in hell you are rostering either Thomas or Morrison this week, but we needed a filler for content purposes.
Pivot Play – QB Jalon Daniels ($6,900) Similar stance here to Duggan where a 28-point projection at $6,900 feels like an auto-start. And maybe he might be because you get the sense many DFS players and bettors even will be fading the Jayhawks this weekend thinking they’re on borrowed time. TCU has tremendous playmakers in the secondary, ranking 25th in pass play success rate and limiting opposing QBs to just 16.4 FPPG. Numbers are inflated some after playing Colorado and Tarleton State, but SMU got many of there yards in garbage time and Dillon Gabriel had just six fantasy points before leaving the contest. Whenever a price is too good to be true, it usually is in DFS.
Best of the Rest – n/a
Injury Notes – RB Daniel Hishaw Jr. ($4,900) Hishaw Jr. suffered an injury against Iowa State and is not expected back for an extended period of time.
Texas vs. Oklahoma
Point-Spread: Tex -9.5
O/U Total: 65.5
Implied Score: Tex 37.5 – OU 28
Weather: 73 degrees / 0% rain / 9 mph winds
Texas:
Top Play(s) – RB Bijan Robinson ($9,000) 20 fantasy points is a lock. We need at least 30 fantasy points from Robinson at his pricing. Spread has now grown to 9.5 in favor of the Longhorns, likely due to the quarterback situation on both sides now with one room at full health and the other ailing. That should mean more carries down the stretch for Robinson if Vegas is correctly projecting this game. OU is one of the worst rush defenses in the country. The team with the most rushing yards in the Red River Rivalry has won 22 of the last 25 matchups. You can guarantee that Steve Sarkisian knows this stat and will feed his star RB. I think you find a way to get Bijan in the lineup here.
Fade – RB Roschon Johnson ($5,400) Longshot, but maybe, just maybe, Bijan Robinson has a shot at jumping back into the Heisman conversation with a Texas victory and a big performance. Get the sense from reading that it will be a Bijan type of day. OU is poor enough on the ground for multiple running backs to eat, but Roschon Johnson has really only had an impact in blowout situations. Maybe this turns into such without Dillon Gabriel? Not spending $5.4k for that risk.
Bargain Bin – TE Ja’Tavion Sanders ($3,500) Third most routes run on the team behind the two starting receivers. Most offensive snaps played among any Texas skill player. Ewers obviously favored Sanders in the first two games of the year, combining for 11 targets, and had a huge day last week with two touchdowns on five targets. Sanders is on the field a ton and the Ewers returning upgrades everyone.
Pivot Play – WR Xavier Worthy ($6,300) Was last Saturday a turning point in Xavier Worthy’s season? Season highs with 7-119-2 on nine targets and 4.41 yards per route run. OU’s strength on defense is defending the pass and limiting big plays, ranking 30th in pass play explosiveness, but now we have a starting linebacker and multiple defensive backs for the Sooners out Saturday due to injury. Could be ripe for the pickin’ for Worthy to continue his upward trend.
Best of the Rest – QB Quinn Ewers ($6,500) Last impression was pretty damn good with Ewers slicing up the Alabama defense in the first half of the Week 2 matchup. Does the sophomore gunslinger step right back in after missing the last three games not missing a beat? I believe OU will be without a starting safety and cornerback who suffered injuries last week against TCU.
Injury Notes – n/a
Oklahoma:
Top Play(s) – RB Eric Gray ($7,400) Yes, I’m betting the under on his rushing prop at 108.5 yards as Texas will undoubtedly load the box this week, and that’s a very high number for a player averaging 13.2 attempts per game. But without their starting quarterback, OU simply must lean on the running game Saturday…they don’t really have a choice. The Sooners do have a tremendous run blocking OL that is 16th in line yards and 44th in rush play success rate.
Fade – QB(s). There are Instagram screenshots out there that Dillon Gabriel was in pads and throwing the ball in practice this week, but every article that I’ve read has suggested it’s very unlikely that DG suits up this week. Davis Beville came on in relief against TCU and completed just 7-of-16 passes for 50 yards. There are mentions that Nick Evers or General Booty (yes, that’s a real name) could get some playing time.
Bargain Bin – RB Jovantae Barnes ($4,400) OU has the 14th best rush offense in the country and 18th in total attempts at 42.2. They’re going over that Saturday is my guess, even as 10-point underdogs. And the 4-star freshman needs to get another extended look after rushing for 100 yards and two scores last week.
Pivot Play – Don’t roster any OU players. The quarterback situation is bleak. We won’t touch the Sooner receivers as a result. OU has several talented running backs and a strong OL, but maybe best just to stay away entirely. Texas’ run defense is trending up in a big way, limiting four of its five opponents to under four yards a carry. The Longhorns are 10th in limiting rush play explosiveness and 22nd in success rate.
Best of the Rest – Marvin Mims ($7,900) General Booty might be throwing passes on Saturday. That means the value of every OU receiver is…booty.
Injury Notes – QB Dillon Gabriel ($9,000) You wouldn’t play Gabriel anyways at this price even if healthy, but all signs point to him sitting on Saturday. The bigger injury to watch might be RB Marcus Major ($6,200) who did not travel with the team last week against TCU. Should he be out again, that directly impacts how we feel about Barnes.
Michigan vs. Indiana
Point-Spread: UM -21.5
O/U Total: 58.5
Implied Score: UM 40 – Ind 18.5
Weather: 53 degrees / 0% rain / 4 mph winds
Michigan:
Top Play(s) – RB Blake Corum ($7,900) Despite facing a top five rush defense last week in Iowa, Corum was still the best player on the field, rushing for 133 yards and a touchdown on 29 carries. In two Big Ten games, Corum has carried the ball 29 and 30 times. The Hoosiers have been strong against the run so far in 2022, but we saw even last week that RB1s can have plenty of success against them with Nebraska’s Anthony Grant topping 100 yards on the ground.
Fade – WR Roman Wilson ($5,000) Doesn’t have the injury tag on DraftKings, but Jim Harbaugh was asked about Roman Wilson’s availability this week. I don’t recall where he got injured in the Iowa game, but we do know Michigan has the pieces at receiver to withstand one injury. I’d fade here with the uncertainty. Plenty for J.J. McCarthy to throw to with Ronnie Bell, Cornelius Johnson and Andrel Anthony…who would step into the starting lineup in place of Wilson.
Bargain Bin – TE Luke Schoonmaker ($3,400) I believe the expectation is we won’t see Erick All for some time in 2022, if at all, but the Wolverines are just fine at tight end where Jim Harbaugh said Schoonmaker could end up being one of the best to ever play in Ann Arbor at his position. 11 receptions on 13 targets in the last two games. Probably not a ton of upside, but a lock for around 10 fantasy points in a PPR format like DraftKings.
Pivot Play – QB J.J. McCarthy ($6,400) The sophomore quarterback is playing mistake-free football for the Wolverines, completing 79% of his passes with six touchdowns and zero turnovers. Good for Michigan, but not great for fantasy purposes, scoring just 26 fantasy points in the last two games. As a three-touchdown favorite, we could absolutely see Michigan lean heavily on the run game once again. But, McCarthy will be facing one of the worse pass defenses in the Big Ten where the Hoosiers are allowing 32.3 FPPG to opposing QB1s. Indiana has always played Michigan tough at home.
Best of the Rest – RB Donovan Edwards ($4,600) Has he been the game-changer I expected in the preseason? No, but double-digit fantasy points in every game played this season. Only saw 18 of 67 total offensive snaps against the Hawkeyes but was his first game back following the injury. I would suspect those reps increase with every passing week and with his utilization in the passing game – 5 receptions on 5 targets – he’s a near lock for double-digit fantasy points each week.
Injury Notes – See above on Roman Wilson.
Indiana:
Top Play(s) – WR Cam Camper ($5,200) No sure thing that Camper plays this week after not traveling to Lincoln to face Nebraska last Saturday, but we’ll side towards him being on the field as it was illness-related, not injury. Tied for second in the country with 62 targets despite playing in just four games.
Fade – RB Shaun Shivers ($5,700) I thought about Bazelak here, but there would be at least a sliver of a chance I’d have the Indiana QB in my lineup. Zero chances with Shivers here against a Top 15 run defense in Michigan. Indiana’s offensive line is terrible. Bad game script. Splitting time with backup Josh Henderson…AND the coaching staff wants to get more touches for freshman Jaylin Lucas. Hard fade.
Bargain Bin – WR Emery Simmons ($3,500) This play is fully dependent on D.J. Matthews’ health status heading into Saturday. Sounds like the senior slot man is close to a return, but the coaching staff isn’t pushing it. Simmons, the North Carolina transfer, stepped in to play 97% of his offensive snaps in the slot and finished with six receptions and a touchdown on a team-high 11 targets. If you’re dead set on having Simmons in your lineup and Matthews ends up playing, there is a pivot to tight end AJ Barner ($3,400) if you’re in a pinch.
Pivot Play – QB Connor Bazelak ($5,300) I’m not advocating this play. But Indiana is the fastest team in the country in terms of pace and averaging the most pass attempts per game in the country. And this is a favorable game script game. Michigan’s pass defense fell from No. 1 in the country to 10th after allowing Spencer Petras to throw for over 200 yards. Unacceptable.
Best of the Rest – WR Andison Coby ($3,000) Coby, a Tennessee transfer, saw his most extended playing time of the season last week, finishing with 5-54-0 on eight targets. Similar to Simmons, his viability this week is dependent on the injuries at receiver.
Injury Notes – See above on Camper and Matthews.
Purdue vs. Maryland
Point-Spread: MD -3.5
O/U Total: 59.5
Implied Score: MD 31.5 – MD 28
Weather: 54 degrees / 0% rain / 10 mph winds
Purdue:
Top Play(s) – WR Charlie Jones ($7,000) Tied for third in the nation in targets and accounts for over 30% of the team target share with seven of the team’s 11 receiving touchdowns. I like the idea of playing Jones this week and not pairing him with Aidan O’Connell (we say why below). You’re not breaking the bank at that pricing and which other receiver is getting double-digit targets every single week? Answer – nobody.
Fade – RB Dylan Downing ($5,000) See below.
Bargain Bin – RB Devin Mockobee ($3,500) Interesting price discrepancy between Mockobee and Dylan Downing as the former has scored double-digit fantasy points in every game played this season, while also out-rushing and out-snapping Downing last week against Minnesota. 50-50 split between the two backs in red-zone carries, so I’ll absolutely take the salary savings here and roster Mockobee > Downing.
Pivot Play – TE Payne Durham ($4,000) Have to admit I’m still surprised that Purdue doesn’t have another receiver outside of Charlie Jones that is anywhere close to the term…reliable. Durham is the secondary option in the passing game, ranking second on the team in targets, receptions, touchdowns and routes run. Maryland has had some struggles defending the tight end this year with Luke Schoonmaker (Michigan) and RJ Maryland (SMU) combining for 32 fantasy points against the Terps.
Best of the Rest – QB Aidan O’Connell ($6,000) AOC at $6k should be a lock, right? HC Jeff Brohm already came out this week saying O’Connell is good to play so health isn’t an issue. But this Maryland secondary might be. The Terps are allowing 22.3 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks, are 42nd in pass play success rate and 16th in limiting pass play explosiveness. We mentioned this above – sometimes prices that are too good to be true…are exactly that.
Injury Notes – RB King Doerue ($5,100) Brohm ruled Doerue out for this week.
Maryland:
Top Play(s) – RB Antwain Littleton ($3,600) I’ll start off by saying that I believe last week’s 19 attempts from Littleton is more of an outlier than what we should anticipate moving forward. Mike Locksley rarely has a workhorse, and Maryland has two backs now in Littleton and Hemby that complement each other with their varying skillsets. Too cheap a price at $3,600 for a running back that has scored a touchdown in every game this season, and playing on the team that is favored in this matchup. Purdue is stout against the run, but we realistically just need 40 yards and a touchdown here to reach value.
Fade – WR Dontay Demus ($5,300) A bit sad what has happened to Demus this season, not looking like the explosive receiver that was dominating defensive backs prior to the injury last year. Still second on the team in routes run, but there was a slight dip in his offensive snaps played this past week against Michigan State. Demus is simply not effective when on the field.
Bargain Bin – TE Corey Dyches ($3,300) Probably best suited to just play Taulia Tagovailoa naked in your lineups if investing in this passing game where no receiver has more than 19% target share. Or you go with the cheapest option in tight end Corey Dyches who is second on the team in catches (19) and third in targets (22).
Pivot Play – QB Taulia Tagovailoa ($6,700) Two Saturdays this season Tagovailoa has been one of the highest-owned quarterbacks on the slate and failed to live up to expectations. Watch this be the week he explodes with less than 5% ownership. Purdue is generally solid across the board defensively, but the secondary is where they’re most vulnerable. 40th in success rate, 66th in explosiveness and allowing 31.3 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. Game script did play a role in those performances where Purdue was ahead, but when Sean Clifford and N’Kosi Perry are scoring 30 fantasy points against your defense…you’re vulnerable.
Best of the Rest – RB Roman Hemby ($5,200) Hemby took a backseat to Littleton with just nine carries last week but was effective in the passing game with five receptions on five targets. Not heavily investing in Maryland running backs this week vs. a Purdue defense that is allowing just 10.9 FPPG to opposing RBs and 3rd in rush play success rate. Statistically, this is a dominant run defense for the Boilermakers.
Injury Notes – n/a
Auburn vs. Georgia
Point-Spread: UGA -29.5
O/U Total: 50
Implied Score: UGA 40 – Aub 10.5
Weather: 71 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
Auburn:
We’ve seen some slippage from the Georgia Bulldogs, now ranked 4th in the country in scoring defense. Unacceptable. Lowest implied total of the slate for Auburn. Complete fade.
Georgia:
Top Play(s) – QB Stetson Bennett ($8,400) Marvin Mims, CJ Verdell, Georgia offense. I have a better chance at dating Giselle after her impending breakup with Tom Brady than predicting the week these guys go off in fantasy. I’ll still lean on the best play for UGA being the quarterback of the team who is 8th in the country in passing and 24th in attempts per game. FWIW – Auburn is allowing just 16.5 FPPG to opposing QBs so far and 45th in pass play success rate. As bad as their offense is, the Tigers defense has been solid across the board statistically.
Fade – RB Kenny McIntosh ($7,500) Totally am of the understanding that Kenny McIntosh is a tremendous receiver out of the backfield, now second on the team in targets (26) and first in receptions (22). But why would we ever pay $7.5k on a running back that is averaging seven rushing attempts per game and is essentially splitting snaps with both Kendall Milton ($5,900) and Daijun Edwards ($4,300) the last two games. $5.5k? I’d lock in McIntosh into my lineups. Not this salary.
Bargain Bin – WR Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint ($3,800) Big-time separation in snap counts between the top two Georgia receivers and the rest of the group – at least in the competitive matchup against Missouri last Saturday. Rosemy-Jacksaint played 52 of 81 offensive snaps, and was tops on the team with eight targets. Production really hasn’t been there, but he’s the third option in the passing game behind Ladd McConkey ($5,500) and Brock Bowers ($7,100).
Pivot Play – RB Daijun Edwards ($4,300) Noticeable that Edwards has received double-digit carries in each of the last two weeks and his snap counts have doubled, seeing more playing time against Missouri than Kendall Milton. Kirby Smart has been looking for a spark in the running game all season long, and Edwards appears to be giving it.
Best of the Rest – Brock Bowers ($7,100) Debatable in terms of fantasy production, but we’ve surprisingly seen some consistency with Brock Bowers’ stat-line with five receptions in each of the last three games and at least five targets in four straight weeks. Consistency + the upside he brings, particularly if he’s getting red-zone carries, puts him in play.
Injury Notes – AD Mitchell ($6,100) and Arik Gilbert ($3,100) remain questionable, and we’ll check back on their status Friday evening. Neither player is worth their salary, though, so we’re not interested regardless.
Utah vs. UCLA
Point-Spread: Utah -4.5
O/U Total: 64.5
Implied Score: Utah 34.5 – UCLA 30
Weather: 84 degrees / 5% rain / 6 mph winds
Utah:
Top Play(s) – TE Dalton Kincaid ($4,400) This was a team last year where the top two tight ends combined for over 30% of the target share. As it stands through five weeks, that number is up to 39%. And now we’re down to just one in Kincaid as Brant Kuithe is gone for the year due to injury. Concentrated pass funnel where only two players are legitimately getting targets which makes it easy to predict for DFS.
Fade – RB Tavion Thomas ($8,400) I will continue to dig for more information here, so ask me closer to gameday for any update you might want. But this is an absolute fade as of now. From my vantage point, this situation is two-fold. There are some off-the-field concerns here with Tavion Thomas that date back all the way to the summer and unfortunately there might have been a death in his family which would affect anyone’s ability to perform. The staff also LOVES freshman Jaylon Glover so getting him more involved was always the game plan. Statistically, this offensive line looks fine. Running backs appear to be the reason why this running game isn’t performing.
****FWIW – the Utah beat writer stated publicly on the message boards that things surrounding Thomas are trending positively right now and that he’s expected to be more involved in the offense. Whether that translates into more production is another story.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – WR Devaughn Vele ($7,400) I cannot see myself spending up to $7.4k for a guy who, just two weeks ago, had receiving props under 40 yards. The argument for Vele is this: between him and Dalton Kincaid, those two account for 50% of the team target share among players that are healthy…meaning we’re removing Brant Kuithe from the equation. Nobody else is getting thrown the ball consistently in the passing game.
Best of the Rest – QB Cam Rising ($7,900) Rising continues to play sound football at the quarterback position, completing close to 70% of his passes with 13 touchdowns and just two interceptions. He’s needed more this season with the running game continuing to struggle and will have to make plays with his arm against the Bruins who are stout against the run. Against the pass? The Bruins are shaky, allowing 22.8 FPPG to opposing QBs and 75th in pass play success rate. If Utah is winning this game, Rising will be the reason as they can’t blunder opponents with the running game right now.
Injury Notes – n/a
UCLA:
Top Play(s) – RB Zach Charbonnet ($6,800) How Utah defends the run will decide the outcome of this game in my opinion. From UCLA’s 247 site – “The Utes are just 65th in opponent rushing success rate allowed and 93rd in opportunity rate allowed (proportion of opponent runs that gain at least 4 yards). This is actually carrying on a trend from last season, where the Utah front seven was 88th in opportunity rate allowed and 55th in success rate allowed.” Those light work days for Charbonnet against non-conference opponents are over. 20+ carries a game for the senior running back from here on out.
Fade – WR Kazmeir Allen ($5,100) Still somehow leads the team in targets but trending downwards in a big way. His 12 targets in Week 1 against Bowling Green is the same amount Allen has had in the last three games combined.
Bargain Bin – WR Kam Brown ($3,500) Just 10 targets on the season but due to not having played the first two weeks. Caught all five of his targets against Washington while also finding the end-zone. Second on the team behind Jake Bobo in routes run the last three games, so he does look to be the secondary option in the UCLA passing game.
Pivot Play – QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson ($7,800) Consensus from UCLA writers is that it will be Charbonnet as the difference maker this week vs. last week where DTR was the star of the show. Utah is 21st in pass play success rate and 19th in pass play explosiveness allowed. Opposing QB1s are averaging just 18.4 FPPG. Most expect a shootout and DTR can get it done with his legs, but this is a tough matchup against the Utah secondary on paper.
Best of the Rest – WR Jake Bobo ($6,500) We mentioned this last week in our slate preview, but Bobo moving around more, splitting time in the slot and outside, has worked wonders for his production. Led the Bruins with 6-142-2 on nine targets last week in the win over Washington. 19 of his 25 targets for the year have now come in the last three games.
Injury Notes – n/a
Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State
Point-Spread: OK St -9.5
O/U Total: 69.5
Implied Score: OK St 39.5 – Tx Tech 30
Weather: 69 degrees / 10% rain / 9 mph winds
Texas Tech:
Top Play(s) – WR Xavier White ($3,400) With Myles Price ailing, White stepped into the premier slot position, catching all nine of his targets for 120 yards and a touchdown. Don’t think Price is playing this week so White should again be the top option in the passing game, particularly as Tech has zero consistency from its outside receivers. Warning – if playing in bigger GPPs, White is going to have massive ownership.
Fade – WR Jerand Bradley ($3,700) We mentioned this play in our player props discussion on Discord. Bradley has been surpassed on the depth chart by Trey Cleveland and J.J. Sparkman. Did not see a single target last week and just 10 offensive snaps. He appears out of the rotation right now at the outside receiver spots.
Bargain Bin – WR Trey Cleveland ($4,000) We’ve essentially swapped situations with Trey Cleveland now the new Jerand Bradley at $4k. Outside receivers have been a massive disappointment for Tech this season, so the staff switched things up with Cleveland getting the starting nod. Played the most offensive snaps of any WRs and was second on the team with seven targets.
Pivot Play – QB Donovan Smith ($7,000) Smith projects well this week for a $7k quarterback and this game total has risen by two points throughout the last few days. Minimal rushing output, but biggest reason for Smith’s projection is the 64 carries over the last four games with a touchdown in each. Out of necessity really with the inconsistencies with the Texas Tech passing game. If there is a component that Tech can exploit, it’s the Oklahoma State pass defense which is 61st in success rate and allowing 29.5 FPPG to opposing QBs. Tech is also running a ton of plays, ranked No. 2 nationally in pace and offensive drives.
Best of the Rest – WR J.J. Sparkman ($3,900) Sparkman was the other change to the starting lineup, though his offensive snaps were cut in half from the prior week as he split time with Loic Fouonji. Would rather spend the $100 more for Cleveland. Zero interest in the Texas Tech running backs facing an Oklahoma State defense that is 28th in rush success rate.
Injury Notes – WR Myles Price ($5,500) Definitely feels like a situation where Price is going to be out this week, despite being listed as ‘questionable.’ Bye weeks comes for the Red Raiders after this matchup. Xavier White played well in relief. And when coaches are coming out with quotes like, “we’re glad it wasn’t a break”, to me that sounds like a serious enough injury that would keep a player out the following game.
Oklahoma St:
Top Play(s) – QB Spencer Sanders ($8,000) One of three quarterbacks in college football this week to be projected at over 31 fantasy points, along with Drake Maye and Frank Harris. I also love that this game total has been bumped two points since the start of the week. While the Red Raiders are allowing 24.6 FPPG to opposing QBs, they really have been able to limit the pass well this season, ranking 45th in yards allowed through the air and 22nd in pass play success rate. Big plays…not so much. 101st in explosiveness allowed.
Fade – Anyone outside the top 4. 82% of Oklahoma State’s offensive production this season has come from just four players. Unless Bray is active, those four are the only ones we have to worry about.
Bargain Bin – See fade section above.
Pivot Play – WR Braydon Johnson ($5,600) Always find it funny when there is a price jump after a player’s mediocre performance. 3-60-0 doesn’t constitute a $1,300 salary increase. Still leads all wide receivers in offensive snaps, targets, touchdowns and routes run. His viability is dependent on Bray’s status.
Best of the Rest – WR Brennan Presley ($5,100) Oklahoma State must’ve seen something on film against Baylor because he was heavily targeted from the jump, finishing with eight receptions for 86 yards. Nathaniel Dell, Phillip Brooks and Thayer Thomas have had the best performances against Tech this year, and all three get reps inside. A lot of assumption there, though, in guessing that it could be another Presley week.
Injury Notes – WR Jaden Bray ($3,000) He’s getting close to a return, now back at practice and listed as “day-to-day.” No idea if it is this week, but Mike Gundy did say its all about conditioning right now getting Bray up to game speed. Tea leaves on some random tweets appear to suggest he might be available this week.
Wisconsin vs. Northwestern
Point-Spread: Wisc -10.5
O/U Total: 43.5
Implied Score: Wisc 27 – NW 16.5
Weather: 56 degrees / 0% rain / 8 mph winds
Wisconsin:
Is the ousting of Paul Chryst going to fix the offensive line? Easy to look at Graham Mertz as the scapegoat, and rightfully so at times, but the offensive line is not up to standard for the Badgers. 106th in line yards, 61st in stuff rate, 118th in second level yards and 91st in rush play success rate. That’s not Wisconsin football. As always for Wisconsin in DFS – Braelon or Bust. Northwestern is allowing 19.9 FPPG to opposing running backs in 2022.
Northwestern:
Top Play(s) – WR Malik Washington ($4,900) Team leader in targets, averaging just over 10 a game, catching at least four passes in every contest. Northwestern is fourth in the B1G in passing at 285 YPG and eighth nationally in pass attempts per game. Not always successful, but Washington will see passes coming his way often.
Fade – QB Ryan Hilinski ($4,900) The team passing numbers we mention above gave me some pause about whether or not we could realistically consider Hilinski. But then I saw his performance against Penn State and realized that’s more of the norm we should be expecting from the NW quarterback in Big Ten play. Tommy DeVito scored 26 fantasy points against this Badgers defense by running the ball one yard into the end-zone three separate times. Had nothing to do with his passing.
Bargain Bin – WR Donny Navarro ($4,200) Second on the team in routes run and targets (42), with double-digit targets in each of the last two weeks. 0.85 yards per route run means he’s really not going anywhere once the ball is in his hands, though. DK consideration only because of the PPR format.
Pivot Play – RB Evan Hull ($6,300) This is not the impenetrable Wisconsin run defense that we’ve seen in the past. Allowing 17.7 FPPG to opposing RB1s, 35th in rush play success rate and 75th in explosiveness. Hull is third on Northwestern and first in the country (by a wide margin) in receptions and targets for a running back, which keeps him in the realm of possibilities.
Best of the Rest – n/a Four options listed above are the only players worthy of some consideration.
Injury Notes – n/a
Mississippi vs. Vanderbilt
Point-Spread: Ole Miss -16.5
O/U Total: 60.5
Implied Score: Ole Miss 38.5 – Vand 22
Weather: 64 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Ole Miss:
Top Play(s) – RB Quinshon Judkins ($6,400) The 4-star freshman has been so good that its got people wondering if Zach Evans is now the second best back on the roster. Also have to wonder if Evans is 100% healthy as he did go through an injury earlier in the year. 11 fewer offensive snaps in a close game against Kentucky kind of signals no.
Fade – WRs beyond Malik Heath ($5,800) and Jonathan Mingo ($6,400) And to be honest, this could really read just WRs beyond Heath. That duo combines for 41% of the team target share and have played over 77% of the offensive snaps this season. Jordan Watkins does play over 70% of the offensive snaps, but his production is minimal in the slot. Beyond that three, the next closest Ole Miss receiver has played just 27% of the snaps. There is minimal rotation at the WR spots.
Bargain Bin – TE Michael Trigg ($3,500) Third in targets and tied for the team lead in touchdowns. As we pointed out above, truly just three players involved right now in the passing game that we trust to be on the field consistently. And Trigg has slate-breaking upside (for tight end standards).
Pivot Play – QB Jaxson Dart ($7,500) The heart of the SEC schedule is about to hit for Ole Miss after this weekend, and the passing game is still in flux. And is player prop has jumped this week, starting at around 189 yards (more than his seasonal average) and rose to around 209-210 at some books. Confidence that Ole Miss might have to throw it more this week? Seems likely, and we know Dart will get us 30-40 yards on the ground as he’s done all year.
Best of the Rest – RB Zach Evans ($7,200) I can’t put Evans as a fade considering how heavy a favorite Ole Miss has been and how absolutely dominant this running game is. But, Evans is giving way to Judkins in both snaps and rushing attempts, and Vanderbilt does grade out well against the run, ranking 26th in success rate – although Alabama made minced meat out of the Commodores on the ground.
Injury Notes – n/a
Vanderbilt:
We’re going to try and cut some time here as we really only like one possible play here in WR1 Will Sheppard ($5,600) who is averaging nine targets per game. The one note I wanted to point out here, though, is that this line has jumped to Vandy being just a 16.5-point underdog (started at 18.5) and the implied team total now sits at 22. Something smells fishy here. Ole Miss in a look-ahead trap spot? Vandy healthy coming out of the bye? Still don’t think there is much here from a DFS standpoint considering prices and facing the 7th best scoring defense in the nation.
Washington vs. Arizona State
Point-Spread: UW -13.5
O/U Total: 57.5
Implied Score: UW 35.5 – Az St 22
Weather: 87 degrees / 33% rain / 10 mph winds
Washington:
Top Play(s) – QB Michael Penix Jr. ($8,500) 300 yards passing every single week this season, and now faces an Arizona State defense that is still losing players to the transfer portal. Sun Devils are allowing 30.5 FPPG to opposing QB1s in 2022. This is a nice bounce back spot for the entire offense after their first loss of the season.
Fade – RB Cameron Davis ($4,800) Washington doesn’t run the football much, and when it does, it’ll be with Wayne Taulapapa. Adding insult to injury, Richard Newton has returned to the lineup in the last two weeks and cutting into Davis’ playing time. Easy fade at price.
Bargain Bin – Tight ends. Desperation plays here, but both Jack Westover and Devin Culp are min-priced and tight ends have seen increased utilization with 15 combined targets in the last two games alone. Arizona State has given up the 13th most fantasy points in the country to opposing tight ends.
Pivot Play – WR Rome Odunze ($7,200) The season-long data shows there isn’t much separation between the top two wide receivers, but Odunze has showed out the past two games since coming back from injury with over 100 yards and three scores. And on a per-game basis, Odunze is on the field more and running more routes between the two players. Not a ton of disparity, but enough to distinguish one from the other. Odunze could see less ownership at a higher salary.
Best of the Rest – WR Jalen McMillan ($6,400) While Odunze has separated himself as the WR1 here I think, but McMillan is a fine Robin counterpart, averaging 8.4 targets a game and tied for the team lead in touchdowns (4). RB Wayne Taulapapa ($6,500) Not sure I’ve every played Taulapapa in a DFS lineup for as long as he’s been in college and that will continue this weekend. Too high a price to pay for a Washington team that runs the ball just 42% of the time which is 114th nationally. If I were to make an argument for Wayne T, it would be that Arizona State is allowing 22.3 FPPG to opposing running backs this season and could look to establish the run as a two-touchdown favorite. But that’s it.
Injury Notes – n/a
Arizona St:
Just two options here with QB Emory Jones ($7,400) and RB1 Xazavian Valladay ($6,700). WR Elijah Badger ($7,600) would absolutely be in the mix if he weren’t absurdly mispriced. 6.4 targets per game at 25% team share doesn’t cut it at that price. Bryan Thompson ($4,900) is the longshot play after catching five passes for 86 yards on six targets against USC last week, and seeing his snap counts triple the last two games. Valladay will be under-owned is my assumption, and don’t see a ton of slate-breaking opportunity which we would want out of a $6.7k player. But has scored 19 or more fantasy points in four of his five games played, and getting 57% of the volume share for the Sun Devils. Only player truly threatening him for carries is Emory Jones. The Huskies are a middle-of-the-road defense across the board. Allowing 15.5 FPPG to opposing RB1s and 31.6 FPPG to quarterbacks this season, giving up over 29 fantasy points three separate times.
Ohio State vs. Michigan State
Point-Spread: OSU -26.5
O/U Total: 64.5
Implied Score: OSU 45.5 – MSU 18
Weather: 56 degrees / 0% rain / 15 mph winds
Ohio St:
Top Play(s) – WR Emeka Egbuka ($6,700) The combination of projection and salary has me leaning towards Egbuka as the top play here. Had a string of three-straight 100-yard performances before last week’s contest against Rutgers where he wasn’t needed in the 49-10 blowout. Were some hazy reports about Egbuka being questionable before last week’s game but wound up playing 40 of the 54 offensive snaps and was on punt team duties. You’re not playing special teams as a star offensive player if you’re not 100%.
Fade – RB TreVeyon Henderson ($8,200) I suppose Henderson could be listed in the injury section. Originally thought he was good to go, but Ryan Day stated he’s just “hopeful” that Henderson will be able to play on Saturday. My question? Does he need to? Probably good to get some live-action reps in before the bye week in preparation for the second-half stretch, but with the way Miyan Williams is performing and as a heavy favorite, not much upside to risking Henderson more than a handful of carries.
Bargain Bin – WR Julian Fleming ($5,000) This is a bargain price for Ohio State standards as the WR3 with JSN out. Fleming played just 50% of the offensive snaps but caught all four of his targets for 51 yards and a TD. Egbuka shifts to the slot with JSN out of the lineup, and I’d suspect Fleming gets more work this week in what should be a slightly more competitive game.
Pivot Play – QB CJ Stroud ($9,200) The Spartans are good enough in the front seven to where Ohio State can’t just run down their throats. And we already know about the secondary that is one of the worst in the country, ranking 107th in pass play success rate and giving up 24.7 FPPG to opposing QBs. When Tanner Morgan goes for 34 fantasy points on you…not great. Should see very low ownership with pricing and some sub-par performances lately.
Best of the Rest – RB Miyan Williams ($7,300) Henderson could dip into the workload some, but tough to think Williams gets significantly less carries after his five-touchdown performance last week. We hinted at it above. Michigan State is just good enough to slow down this running game where RB1s are averaging just 15 FPPG and the Spartans are 21st in success rate.
Injury Notes – WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($7,500) Officially listed as questionable, and making good progress according to coaches, but the plan sounds as though he won’t be back until Week 8 after the bye.
Michigan St:
Top Play(s) – WR Jayden Reed ($4,900) Will be the popular bring-back candidate this week as his pricing is just too low. So in that sense, you could probably fade him for leverage in GPPs. But I also don’t think he’ll see substantial ownership like maybe a Xavier White will from Texas Tech. Reed looked like his old self last week coming back from injury, with 7-61-1 on a team-high 12 targets. If there is a player on MSU that could start on Ohio State – there aren’t many at all – it would be Reed.
Fade – RB Jalen Berger ($5,900) Wheels have come off for Berger were just 74 rushing yards combined in the last three games. Not all his fault as MSU has a bottom-tier offensive line in the Big Ten, and this is a BAD matchup against the Ohio State front.
Bargain Bin – RB Elijah Collins ($3,000) Preface by saying we do not like this matchup in the trenches, so we’re looking to avoid Michigan State running backs this week. The Buckeyes are allowing just 10.3 FPPG to running backs and 14th in rush play success rate. But it does seem like Elijah Collins is working his way back into the mix here. MSU’s leading rusher back in 2019, Collins accumulated 36 yards and a touchdown on five carries last week, and a team beat writer is predicting his usage will increase as the weeks go by. If not this week, file that away for a future slate.
Pivot Play – WR Keon Coleman ($5,200) Certain to see zero ownership with Reed now at 100% health. But you can make the argument here. Still the team leader in targets and routes run, averaging 8.6 targets a game. Coleman and Reed account for 42% of the team share so the ball is only one in two directions for the most part.
Best of the Rest – QB Payton Thorne ($5,900) Worst performance of Thorne’s 2021 season did come at Ohio State last year, completing just 14-of-36 passes with one touchdown. And the junior quarterback has been a massive disappointment in 2022, with eight touchdowns to just six interceptions. Game script works in his favor. But the Buckeyes have been just as good defending the pass, ranking 4th in success rate and 15.4 FPPG to opposing QBs. This doesn’t feel like a game stack scenario where you need multiple pieces on the MSU side.
Injury Notes – n/a
