Clemson vs. Florida State
Point-Spread: Clem -14.5
O/U Total: 46.5
Implied Score: Clem 30.5 – FSU 16
Weather: 78 degrees / 3% rain / 6 mph winds
Clemson:
Top Play(s) – QB Cade Klubnik ($8,600) Redemption tour is well underway for Klubnik and his detractors are beginning to believe now after scoring over 100 fantasy points over the last three weeks. Schedule has been soft in that time, but we don’t expect the Florida State defense to offer much resistance either given the way their season is crumbling now. FSU’s secondary is 107th in pass D success rate and 115th in Pro Football Focus coverage grades.
Fade – WR Tyler Brown ($3,500) First game back for Brown last Saturday since Week 2, but he’s trending down and looks to have been passed up by Antonio Williams who is now the full-time starting slot receiver with the emergence of the freshman on the outside. Just 16 routes run and one target last week vs. Stanford
Bargain Bin – TE Jake Briningstool ($4,000) Start your Jake Briningstool shares this week in DFS and CFF as this is as juicy a matchup it gets for the talented tight end. FSU is allowing 12 FPPG to opposing tight ends with RJ Maryland and Anthony Landphere both scoring over 17 fantasy points in their matchup with the Seminoles. Even Cal’s top two tight ends combined for 13 fantasy points against FSU.
Pivot Play – RB Phil Mafah ($7,000) Had to chuckle a bit when the Clemson beat writer said that because of the crowd noise this week that the Tigers might lean on Mafah a bit more offensively. You really think FSU fans are going to pack that stadium after this start to the season? Hasn’t been the start we expected from Mafah, but this is a potential get-right matchup against an FSU defense that is 66th in rush D success rate and has allowed four different running backs to score 22 or more fantasy points against them already.
Best of the Rest – WRs Clemson is likely to be down two wideouts this week so this week should be reflective of last Saturday’s matchup with Stanford in terms of playing time. Antonio Williams played 86% of his reps in the slot, essentially nullifying Tyler Brown from the equation. Prized freshman T.J. Moore and Bryant Wesco Jr. were the top two on the team in routes run, combining for 10 targets on the day. Those three, along with Briningstool are the options in the passing game for the Tigers.
Injury Notes – Expect Clemson to be without two rotational receivers this week with Adam Randall and Troy Stellato both missing the game due to injuries.
Florida State:
Top Play(s) – RB Lawrance Toafili ($5,000) As we saw last week against Stanford, the Clemson run defense is a problem right now. And not in a good way. The Tigers are giving up 30.6 FPPG to opposing backfields and rank 109th in rush D success rate. Toafili didn’t find the end-zone last week, but still got the bulk of the carries for the second straight game with Roydell Williams out of the lineup.
Fade – QB Brock Glenn ($4,900) Can’t get much worse than DJU, so Glenn being inserted into the lineup won’t hurt this offense. But we don’t want any part of this Florida State passing game right now that has thrown just four touchdowns in five games. Clemson isn’t a dominant secondary, but the Tigers have only allowed one QB to score more than 13 fantasy points this season.
Bargain Bin – WR Ja’khi Douglas ($4,600) Only realistic option on the FSU side other than Toafili this week. Douglas is second in targets (20), first in receptions (15) and first in receiving yards (285) with a 75% catch rate.
Pivot Play – WR Malik Benson ($4,200) On the off chance that Brock Glenn rejuvenates this Florida State passing game, Benson still leads the team in routes run and targets (26) this season. Benson’s 15.7 aDOT is the highest on the team so maybe we get one deep shot that results in a touchdown.
Best of the Rest – Could throw a dart at Hykeem Williams, Kentron Poitier or Jalen Brown as rotational options, but FSU has not found a capable starting wideout opposite Benson on the outside. Williams played 58% of snaps last week – most of that trio – but resulted in just one catch for minimal yardage.
Injury Notes – n/a
Tennessee vs. Arkansas
Point-Spread: Tenn -13.5
O/U Total: 57.5
Implied Score: Tenn 35.5 – Ark 22
Weather: 82 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Tennessee:
Top Play(s) – RB Dylan Sampson ($8,900) The Razorbacks have been solid defensively against the run, having now allowed an opponent yet to score more than 15 fantasy points against them. And the opponents haven’t been slouches either, facing Ollie Gordon, Lee Beebe and Le’Veon Moss already. For that reason, Sampson isn’t the lock he normally is but remains the best option the Vols have on offense with three 100-yard performances in four games. Even in the matchup at Oklahoma, Sampson still managed 92 yards and a touchdown facing one of the best run defenses in the conference.
Fade – WR Dont’e Thornton Jr. ($5,200) That’s twice now that Thornton has been the star of the show among Tennessee receivers when we least expected it, scoring on the 66-yard touchdown vs. the Sooners. While physically gifted, Thornton still isn’t on the field all that much, playing just 36% of the time against Oklahoma. Fantasy points are more important than snaps on the field, but just a word of caution here before entering him into your lineups.
Bargain Bin – WR Bru McCoy ($3,200) Don’t understand this pricing for McCoy who was tied for the team lead in targets last week vs. Oklahoma and played 84% of the offensive snaps. McCoy leads the team in targets, receptions and routes run in 2024.
Pivot Play – RB DeSean Bishop ($4,200) Bishop is established now as the team’s RB2 behind Sampson. Even after the Oklahoma matchup, Bishop is still averaging well over seven yards a carry for the season, and his reps have only gone up week to week. If you assume a Vols blowout of Arkansas, stacking Bishop and Sampson together could be a strong GPP option.
Best of the Rest – QB Nico Iamaleava ($9,200) Arkansas has the third worst pass defense in the SEC in terms of yards allowed through the air and are 86th in pass D success rate. The Hogs do a decent job of limiting the big play, though, with just 13 passes allowed of 20+ yards this season. Marcel Reed and Jacob Zeno both scored 21 fantasy points in their matchups with Arkansas this season. WR Squirrel White ($4,800) is third in targets (11) but has yet to make much of an impact this season. Though maybe this is the week. Three receivers have scored over 22 fantasy points already against Arkansas this season, two of which being slot receivers in Noah Thomas and Brennan Presley. We know Squirrel White will not have any ownership on this slate given his lack of production.
Injury Notes – n/a
Arkansas:
Top Play(s) – WR Andrew Armstrong ($6,500) Can’t trust a quarterback that is losing confidence according to his head coach nor any running back facing Tennessee this season, so we’ll lean on the top target getter for the Hogs. Double-digit targets in all four games played this season for Andrew Armstrong. We’ll mix Armstrong into our GPP lineups, but don’t overexpose here. Tennessee has yet to allow a receiver to score more than 11 fantasy points this season.
Fade – RB Ja’Quinden Jackson ($5,900) Tennessee is No. 1 in rush defense success rate and just one running back – Jovantae Barnes – has scored more than six fantasy points against the Vols this season. Even as a contrarian play, Jackson doesn’t make a ton of sense given the matchup.
Bargain Bin – TE Var’Keyes Gumms ($3,000) Take a peek at the injury report section. Top three tight ends are all questionable or out this week. If we get news that Luke Hasz and Ty Washington are out, look for the former North Texas transfer Var’Keyes Gumms to get the start. Huge risk considering Gumms doesn’t have a catch this season, but also a player that has proven himself in the past with 33 receptions on 451 yards and five touchdowns in 2022 back at North Texas, so he is capable.
Pivot Play – QB Taylen Green ($7,000) As we alluded to above, HC Sam Pittman came out this week and said that Green’s lack of confidence is becoming a problem, and that’s been evident the last three weeks. Tough to see that changing this week against a defense that is harassing opposing QBs, allowing just 6.5 (!) FPPG with one player (Michael Hawkins) hitting double-digit fantasy points. Part of that is due to the schedule, though, and the Vols actually rank 101st in pass D success rate. Maybe, just maybe, Green can turn it around on Saturday night, and a 22-point projection at this price is considerable.
Best of the Rest – WR Isaiah Sategna ($3,000) or WR Isaac TeSlaa ($3,000) Min play options as the duo combined for 14 targets, 11 receptions and a touchdown last week vs. A&M. Hopefully this means Tyrone Broden and his 28.6% catch rate is finally getting kicked to the curb. We mentioned Gumms above as a longshot play, but perhaps all the tight end injuries just result in more opportunities for the receivers instead.
Injury Notes – Laundry list of health issues this week, but no big names of substantial consequence. Tight ends Luke Hasz and Ty Washington are both questionable. RB Rodney Hill is out, along with WR Khafre Brown. Eastern Michigan transfer Andreas Paaske was downgraded from doubtful to out.
Baylor vs. Iowa State
Point-Spread: ISU -13.5
O/U Total: 44.5
Implied Score: ISU 29 – Bayl 15.5
Weather: 84 degrees / 9% rain / 18 mph winds
Baylor:
Top Play(s) – WR Hal Presley ($3,100) We’re not interested in much of anything on the Baylor side with a road trip to Ames, IA at night. With the season on the brink and Dave Aranda one step closer to being unemployed, things could go awry quickly. Last week feels like more of an outlier than the norm, but Presley was targeted 14 times which was a career-high vs. BYU. Should be a similar game script this week as a near two-touchdown underdog.
Fade – QB Sawyer Robertson ($5,900) Robertson has been an upgrade over Dequan Finn, but this isn’t the spot to play a Baylor QB as we alluded to above. Iowa State is 5th nationally in pass D success rate and 5th in EPA per pass play defensively. The Cyclones are giving up just 6.2 FPPG to opposing QBs this season.
Bargain Bin – WR Ashtyn Hawkins ($3,300) Last week’s first half deficit to BYU dictated the increase in passing volume but difficult to think that won’t happen again this week for Baylor given the spread. We don’t expect the Bears to be as effective last week, but Hawkins is playing over 70% of the snaps and was targeted eight times on Saturday. Worth a dart at this price.
Pivot Play – RB Bryson Washington ($4,300) The weaker of the two defensive components for the Cyclones is the run defense, ranking 57th in success rate and allowing 19 FPPG to opposing backfields. Washington will get the bulk of the carries again this week with Richard Reese likely out and was effective in the passing game last week with six receptions on six targets.
Best of the Rest – WR Josh Cameron ($4,800) Cameron has 16 targets in the last three weeks and leads the team in routes run.
Injury Notes – RB Richard Reese ($3,300) Was not at practice again this week after missing the BYU game. He’ll be out once again.
Iowa State:
Top Play(s) – WR Jayden Higgins ($5,300) Receivers have had a good bit of success against Baylor this season with five players scoring 15 or more fantasy points. WR Jaylin Noel ($5,000) is in the same boat as Higgins, though I would not stack the two together in a lineup as this game really doesn’t have shootout potential. That said, this is an extremely top-heavy target share with no other player having more than 10 targets on the Iowa State roster.
Fade – RB Abu Sama III ($4,500) I still don’t think we can believe in Abu Sama after last week’s 100-yard rushing performance where the sophomore back had around 16 yards through three quarters. We saw the same rotation with both Carson Hansen and Jaylon Jackson involved heavily with a near-even three-way split. Baylor is giving up just 17.7 FPPG to opposing backfield this season and are 15th in rush D success rate.
Bargain Bin – RB Jaylon Jackson ($4,000) The former Eastern Michigan transfer out-carried Sama 14-11 last week vs. Houston and continues to be the more effective player, averaging over five yards per carry in each of the last three games. Jackson actually has an 8-4 advantage in red zone attempts over Sama.
Pivot Play – RB Carson Hansen ($3,300) On that same token, Hansen also has more red-zone opportunities this season than Sama (6-4) and is tied for the team lead in rushing touchdowns. Assuming Iowa State wins comfortably, Hansen should see 7-10 carries on the night.
Best of the Rest – QB Rocco Becht ($6,300) This is not a great slate for quarterbacks, so Becht is in play at this pricing with a near 20-point projection. The problem is that the Baylor defense has been relatively solid against QBs as well this season, ranked 18th in pass D success rate and 32nd in EPA per pass. Last two weeks, though, a combined 55 fantasy points allowed to Shedeur Sanders and Jake Retzlaff.
Injury Notes – n/a
Michigan vs. Washington
Point-Spread: UW -1.5
O/U Total: 41.5
Implied Score: UW 21.5 – UM 20
Weather: 64 degrees / 1% rain / 7 mph winds
Michigan:
Top Play(s) – RB Kalel Mullings ($7,100) The Mullings – Hassan Haskins comparison is so accurate. Upright runners that don’t go down on first contact and churn our yards in bunches. Mullings is clear RB1 and 20+ carries each week should be a constant moving forward. Of the two defensive components, Washington is not as good at stopping the run as they are defending the pass, ranked 47th in defensive success rate. Kyle Monangai had no problem running on the Washington defense.
Fade – WRs. Michigan receivers will not be relevant until we see a quarterback change…which might happen in the not-so-distant future once Jack Tuttle gets healthy or freshman Jadyn Davis gets up to speed. Michigan is 120th nationally in pass play rate.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Nobody under $5k is an option. At some point, Michigan will hopefully start emphasizing wide receivers and quarterbacks in recruiting and the transfer portal, so this is NOT such a one-dimensional offense.
Pivot Play – TE Colston Loveland ($5,000) First game back from injury and Loveland was immediately the top target again for the Wolverines, finishing with 41 yards on four receptions. Tough to imagine a scenario where Loveland does not lead the Wolverines in receiving in any game for the rest of the season.
Best of the Rest – QB Alex Orji ($5,800) Barring a change in offensive philosophy to where the staff unleashes Orji on the ground, he’s not capable enough of a thrower to be a relevant fantasy option, which is evident in his previous two performances. Tough to fully grade the Washington pass defense right now, as their schedule has consisted of Northwestern, Rutgers and Eastern Michigan, but Orji isn’t proving to be much better than the QB1s on any of those teams either.
Injury Notes – n/a
Washington:
Top Play(s) – WR Giles Jackson ($6,400) A few reasons why Jackson is the top play for the Huskies. (1) Revenge game factor coming off the loss in the National Title game a year ago. (2) Former team storyline as Jackson is a former Wolverine – seems like forever ago now. (3) Michigan has really struggled to defend slot receivers so far this season. Matthew Golden and Zachariah Branch had two of their best performances this season as the Wolverines are breaking in new slot corners and don’t have strong coverage linebackers.
Fade – QB Will Rogers ($7,100) The Washington passing offense has been incredibly efficient, ranking No. 4 nationally in success rate. There’s just not a lot of upside here for Rogers going against one of the better secondaries in the country as a non-running QB. Quinn Ewers and Miller Moss both fared reasonably well against the Wolverines yet combined to average just 20 fantasy points. Not to mention the plan to sub in freshman QB Demond Williams Jr. for a play or two each week which takes Rogers off the field.
Bargain Bin – TE Keleki Latu ($3,200) We spoke above on how Michigan is struggling to defend passes over the middle of the field. That applies to both slot receivers and tight ends. Texas and Arkansas State’s TE1s scored over 20 fantasy points in their matchups with the Wolverines. Latu is fourth on the team in targets (16) and routes run with a 81% catch rate.
Pivot Play – RB Jonah Coleman ($7,300) Really surprised to see Washington as a favorite in this matchup (Michigan bias aside), and that line hasn’t teetered much at all throughout the week. That makes Coleman a solid on the Washington side as the Michigan run defense hasn’t played up to par despite having two NFL First-Round Draft picks in the middle of the defensive line. Last week’s 100-yard performance from Coleman on the road vs. Rutgers was really impressive.
Best of the Rest – WR Denzel Boston ($7,400) and Jeremiah Hunter ($4,200) As much as we might like Jackson this week, Michigan still hasn’t allowed a receiver to go over 18 fantasy points against them all year. So spending up for Boston – who likely goes against Will Johnson – doesn’t seem like a wise investment.
Injury Notes – n/a
USC vs. Minnesota
Point-Spread: USC -8.5
O/U Total: 49.5
Implied Score: USC 29 – Minn 20.5
Weather: 75 degrees / 2% rain / 15 mph winds
USC:
Top Play(s) – RB Woody Marks ($7,500) Elite running backs have had their way with the Minnesota run defense, namely the last two weeks where Kaleb Johnson and Kalel Mullings combined to score 63 fantasy points in the last two weeks. Minnesota’s run defense is just 61st in EPA on the ground. As we’ve seen the last several years at Mississippi State, Marks is effective both as a runner and out of the backfield, now with 15 receptions on 18 targets.
Fade – n/a. USC players are priced appropriately.
Bargain Bin – WR Duce Robinson ($3,500) We correctly predicted that Robinson would have a productive week with the absence of Lake McRee in the starting lineup, nabbing a season-high five targets with a touchdown. Robinson is a WR / TE hybrid player that is a presence in the middle of the field without an active pass-catching tight end available and healthy.
Pivot Play – WR Ja’Kobi Lane ($5,500) Season-highs all around for Lane with 10 receptions on 12 targets and two scores against Wisconsin, looking like the best offensive player on the field for the Trojans. Zachariah Branch has been inconsistent, Makai Lemon being limited, and USC is missing their starting tight end, so the receiving options are limited right now, opening up opportunities for Lane.
Best of the Rest – QB Miller Moss ($7,800) Some of these numbers are opponent-based considering Minnesota has faced Max Johnson, Alex Orji, Brendon Lewis and Cade McNamara to this point, but the Gophers are No. 1 in EPA per pass play and No. 11 in pass D success rate. But the Gophers have done what is expected against those anemic pass offenses.
Injury Notes – WR Makai Lemon ($3,000) Lemon was back at practice this week with pads on, so looks like he’s on track to play Saturday. How much is TBD after getting knocked out of the game two weeks ago vs. Michigan.
Minnesota:
Similar story each week on the Minnesota side of things. RB Darius Taylor ($7,600) is the team’s best option, as USC has allowed chunk plays to opposing running backs on the ground. My jaw dropped also when I realized just how many times Minnesota targeted Taylor coming out of the backfield last week vs. Michigan with 10 catches on 12 targets. A bit of an outlier, but Taylor has been exceptional coming out of the backfield with 21 receptions, averaging over six targets per game. WRs Daniel Jackson ($4,500) and Elijah Spencer ($3,900) combine for 44% of the team’s target share and 43% of the overall receiving production for the Gophers. QB Max Brosmer ($5,000) is cheap, but USC is giving up just 9.3 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks on the year.
UCF vs. Florida
Point-Spread: UCF -2.5
O/U Total: 61.5
Implied Score: UCF 32 – UF 29.5
Weather: 79 degrees / 13% rain / 9 mph winds
UCF:
Top Play(s) – RB RJ Harvey ($9,200) Harvey had his worst performance of the season vs. Colorado, averaging just 4.8 YPC and had a crucial fumble…yet still managed 26 fantasy points in the loss. Your lineup builds start with Harvey and you proceed from there.
Fade – RB Peny Boone ($6,200) One week DK will price Boone appropriately. Blowout situations have been the only time this season where the former Toledo transfer was relevant. 2.5-point spread means the only way Boone makes the GPP winning lineup is if RJ Harvey gets injured during the game.
Bargain Bin – TE Randy Pittman Jr. ($3,400) Pittman was tied with Xavier Townsend for second on the team with 14 targets, and now Townsend is no longer on the roster. We’ll look at the replacement WR options below, but Pittman should see an uptick in volume as the middle of the field is primarily where he and Townsend would operate. Four tight ends have scored at least 8 fantasy points in their matchups with Florida this season.
Pivot Play – WR2. Who that is now is up in the air with Townsend’s departure. WR Trent Whittemore ($4,100) played the third most snaps (57%) vs. Colorado after Kobe Hudson and Townsend, and has played 38% of his reps in the slot, so he’s one option along with former Auburn transfer WR Ja’Varrius Johnson ($3,800). UCF beat writer on the 247 boards also mentioned freshman Bredell Richardson ($3,000) seeing an increased role both on returns and on offense. The 4-star kind of disappeared during fall camp, so he’s a huge risk to play in DFS, but did have 100-yards in the team’s spring game.
Best of the Rest – WR Kobe Hudson ($7,200) You could go cheap with the WR2 options – of which we have no idea really who steps up – OR you could just go with the guy that has nearly 30% of the target share and easily the team’s most productive wideout. QB KJ Jefferson ($9,100) has a strong matchup on paper against a team that’s allowed 26.8 FPPG to quarterbacks this season, but his inconsistencies and turnovers will have you pulling out your hair when rostering him. In his defense, Jefferson has scored 23 or more fantasy points still in three of four games. Stacking Harvey, Jefferson and Hudson in the same lineup is possible if you can make salaries work because of how much offensive production revolves around those three.
Injury Notes – WR Xavier Townsend ($5,700) As we saw across the country a few times this week, players are opting out to preserve eligibility and hit the portal. Townsend did just that.
Florida:
Top Play(s) – WR Elijhah Badger ($5,400) We’re operating under the assumption that Eugene Wilson will not play, or be limited, on Saturday night. Badger is now the team leader in all receiving categories after four games, and those numbers could increase exponentially given how the UCF secondary has performed. The Knights are 121st in pass D success rate and have given up the 10th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers among teams that are playing this weekend.
Fade – QBs. Graham Mertz was exceptional his last time out vs. Mississippi State, completing his first 15 or so passes of the game. But he’s giving way to DJ Lagway during the game for multiple drives, and during the broadcast, it was mentioned that Billy Napier has no intention of stopping that two-QB system. We expect Mertz to play the majority of the contest still, but you’re losing 3-4 possessions at least with Lagway entering the game. Shame too because UCF is allowing plenty of fantasy points to opposing QBs.
Bargain Bin – WR Aidan Mizell ($3,700) I’ll probably mention this another time in this section, but it’s evident that Billy Napier is getting the younger players involved more now to show the boosters the talent on this roster – though probably won’t help save his job at this point. Mizell played 60% of the offensive snaps vs. Mississippi State with a season-high five receptions on five targets. He played primarily in the slot, so he’s downgraded if Eugene Wilson does end up playing.
Pivot Play – WR Chimere Dike ($4,800) Dike could potentially be the better option over Badger, playing 98% of the offensive snaps vs. MSU two weeks ago. 10 of his 13 targets have come in the last two weeks, and he’s averaging over 17 YPC for the season. With the way UCF is giving up chunks through the air, stacking both Dike and Badger in a lineup together isn’t the worst idea in the world.
Best of the Rest – RB Montrell Johnson ($5,100) Very attainable price for Johnson who is still dominating the backfield market share for the Gators, though expect to see more of freshman Jaden Baugh as the weeks progress. That said, UCF is stout up front and has yet to allow a running back to score more than 12 fantasy points this season. High floor, low (ish) upside play here. Tight end usage was up against Miss State with both TE Hayden Hansen ($3,100) and Arlis Boardingham ($3,600) nabbing touchdowns, while TE3 Tony Livingston ($3,000) was targeted five times. This has been a trend now for two straight games, so all three are potential throw-in options.
Injury Notes – WR Eugene Wilson ($6,800) We’ll find out later today if Wilson plays or not against UCF as he reportedly shed the non-contact jersey in practice this week. The wording of the reporting still doesn’t sound like he was a full participant in practice, so this is a risk even if announced Wilson is available on Saturday.
Kansas vs. Arizona State
Point-Spread: ASU -2.5
O/U Total: 49.5
Implied Score: ASU 26 – KU 23.5
Weather: 104 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Kansas:
Top Play(s) – WR Luke Grimm ($6,000) First off, yes you read that temperature correctly above. Scorcher in Tempe on Saturday evening. We hated Kansas receivers a year ago, but Luke Grimm has emerged as a bonafide WR1 for the Jayhawks, a lot of which due to what you’ll read about Jalon Daniels below. Kansas isn’t throwing the football down the field successfully, which dings Quentin Skinner and Lawrence Arnold, but boosts the value of a possession receiver like Grimm.
Fade – QB Jalon Daniels ($6,800) Daniels has been downright bad this season, to be blunt. Kansas is 103rd in EPA per play throwing the football and Daniels is turning the ball over at an alarming rate. Listen to this stat – Daniels is completing just 33% of his passes beyond 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Yuck. Arizona State has allowed just one QB this season to score more than 15 fantasy points against them.
Bargain Bin – WR Quentin Skinner ($3,800) Skinner has a 30% catch rate because of Daniels’ inability to throw downfield but does play over 67% of the team’s offensive snaps and averages 5.2 targets per game.
Pivot Play – WR Lawrence Arnold ($4,500) Grimm is the priority for Kansas receivers, but Arizona State has allowed wide receivers to find success against them this season. Five different wideouts have scored at least 13 fantasy points vs. the Sun Devils this season. Arnold is averaging just under six targets per contest.
Best of the Rest – RB Devin Neal ($6,900) Neal will usually be Kansas’ top play, but this is a strong run defense he’s facing with the Sun Devils. Second in yards allowed per game in the Big 12, 10th in rush D success rate and giving up only 16.6 FPPG to opposing backfields. Running backs are scoring 69% below their seasonal average when taking on Arizona State this season. Same logic applies for Daniel Hishaw Jr. ($4,500) who continues to play his normal role of touchdown vulture. You can play either running back separately but don’t stack the two together vs. this run D.
Injury Notes – n/a
Arizona State:
Top Play(s) – RB Cam Skattebo ($8,000) No other running back on Arizona Sate has more than 14 carries this season. The concern here for Skattebo in my opinion will be the heat and how much he can carry the load in 100+ temperatures. Perhaps we see a bit more rotation on Saturday night. Matchup is fine – Kansas is 85th in rush D success rate.
Fade – Backups. Arizona State rarely rotates. Skattebo dominates the backfield market share. Top three receivers all play over 70% of the offensive snaps.
Bargain Bin – TE Chamon Metayer ($3,300) Metayer played over 80% of the offensive snaps in Week 4 which was a season-high. Kansas allowed 10 fantasy points to West Virginia’s Kole Taylor last week.
Pivot Play – QB Sam Leavitt ($8,200) Kansas is better defending the pass vs. the run, ranking 45th in pass D success rate. But they’ve struggled against dual-threat quarterbacks like this, most recently with Garrett Greene scoring 33 fantasy points last week. Matthew Sluka, pre-opt out, also had a big day on the ground vs. the Jayhawks.
Best of the Rest – WRs. All three starting receivers play over 70% of the offensive snaps between Jordyn Tyson, Xavier Guillory and Melquan Stovall. Boundary receivers like Tyson have given Kansas all sorts of fits this season, including last week where Hudson Clement went over 100 yards. Clement, Eric McAlister and Zakhari Franklin all scored 20+ fantasy points in their matchups with Kansas. Tyson and Leavitt stack and fading Skattebo would be the contrarian play for GPPs.
Injury Notes – n/a
Duke vs. Georgia Tech
Point-Spread: GT -9.5
O/U Total: 53.5
Implied Score: GT 33.5 – Duke 22
Weather: 75 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Duke:
Top Play(s) – RB Star Thomas ($4,700) Three-straight 100-yard rushing performances for the former New Mexico State transfer, and that was with Jaquez Moore back in the lineup for Duke. Georgia Tech is strongest defending the run, ranking 24th in rush D success rate but you cannot beat this pricing for Duke’s RB1.
Fade – WR Javon Harvey ($4,400) A name familiar to those who play CFF as Harvey was thought to be a top fantasy option last year for Old Dominion but that never transpired. Not sure why he’s priced this way with just nine targets all season, playing less than 30% of the time.
Bargain Bin – TE Nicky Dalmolin ($3,200) I will personally be overweight with my exposure to Dalmolin here for better or worse. Quiet day vs. North Carolina last week, but had a 100-yard, two-touchdown performance the previous week against Middle Tennessee. Georgia Tech has not fared well against opposing tight ends. Oronde Gadsden had 26 fantasy points vs. the Jackets, while Georgia State’s TE1 scored 17 fantasy points in his matchup.
Pivot Play – QB Maalik Murphy ($7,600) Disappointing result from Murphy against UNC last week, scoring just 10 fantasy points on a team that allowed 70 points to James Madison the week prior. Georgia Tech is allowing just 19 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks but rank 116th in pass D success rate. Would be surprised if Murphy doesn’t have a bounce back performance in some fashion.
Best of the Rest – WR Jordan Moore ($7,000) Most will be on Star Thomas this week, but Jordan Moore could easily be Duke’s top play, now with double-digit targets in four of five games played this season. He is a clear alpha receiver that we should be heavily investing in on the slate. WR Eli Pancol ($4,300) leads the team in receiving touchdowns (4), while WR Sahmir Hagans ($4,500) averages five targets per game. Both are rotational options in GPPs.
Injury Notes – n/a
Georgia Tech:
Top Play(s) – QB Haynes King ($7,500) Top QB option on the slate, but a considerable amount with a 28-point projection. Duke is allowing just 12 FPPG to opposing QBs this season but have faced Jacolby Criswell, Nick Vattiato, Mike Wright and Nick Evers. Not exactly a string of Tom Brady’s right there.
Fade – n/a. All Georgia Tech options are priced appropriately.
Bargain Bin – TE Jackson Hawes ($3,000) Definitely no need to roster a Georgia Tech tight end on the slate, but Hawes did have 40 yards receiving las time out against Louisville and played over 80% of the offensive snaps. TE Avery Boyd ($3,500) is the pass-catching option of the two, being a former receiver, but is on the field far less. Tight ends have fared well against Duke this season with Holden Willis and Bryson Nesbit scoring over 14 fantasy points in their respective matchups.
Pivot Play – RB Jamal Haynes ($6,000) I know folks are betting under on Haynes rushing prop total this week given his recent struggles, and the fact that Duke is 26th in rush D success rate. BUT, they’ve given up a LOT of fantasy points this season with Cam Porter (27 fpts), Jaiden Credle (24 fpts) and Cam Edwards (20 fpts). Haynes will not have a lot of ownership, so this is a strong contrarian play.
Best of the Rest – WRs Malik Rutherford and Eric Singleton Jr. are in play as they combine for 48% of the team’s targets and 54% of the receiving production. Chase Lane is a distant third with 15 targets but plays 63% of snaps and has an 87% catch rate.
Injury Notes – n/a
