Jacksonville State vs. Middle Tennessee
Point-Spread: MTSU -3.5
O/U Total: 51.5
Implied Score: MTSU 27.5 – JSU 24
Weather: 72 degrees / 4% rain / 7 mph winds
Jacksonville State:
Top Play(s) – QB Logan Smothers ($7,100) Should be the player you have the highest exposure to on the slate. 27 or more fantasy points scored in three of the last four games played after snatching the starting QB job away from last year’s starter Zion Webb. The former Nebraska transfer is a perfect fit in Rich Rodriguez’ offensive system which heavily emphasizes the quarterback position in the run game. Middle Tennessee is allowing 31.5 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks – second most in the entire country.
Fade – RB Anwar Lewis ($4,700) Was projected to be the team’s opening day starter after rushing for 846 yards and eight scores last season, but injuries kept Lewis out of the first four games this season. Looks as though the coaching staff is easing Lewis back with four carries last week against Sam Houston State. Unfortunately, injuries lead to opportunity for others and while we believe we’ll see an uptick in usage moving forward from Lewis, he’s likely not earning that RB1 job back anytime soon.
Bargain Bin – WR Perry Carter ($4,000) Team leader in targets (20) who has steadily seen his playing time increase over the last three games. Carter has been more effective of late than fellow slot receiver Sterling Galban ($4,900), despite the latter still being listed as the starter.
Pivot Play – WR Quinton Lane ($5,500) Team leader in receptions (12) with a 12.7 YPC average and 13.3 aDOT, tops on the team among wide receivers. Not surprisingly for a team so bad at defending the pass, Middle Tennessee is allowing over 21 fantasy points to opposing WR1s this season. Lane will see very low ownership in GPPs. You’ll need a touchdown, though, to pay off this salary as Jacksonville State is not a high-volume passing offense, throwing the football just 37% of the time – 125th nationally.
Best of the Rest – RB Malik Jackson ($6,900) Feel free to pair up Smothers and Jackson in the same lineup with how much Jacksonville State prefers to keep the ball on the ground. Jackson accounted for 65% of the rushing attempts that have gone to Jacksonville State running backs in the last two weeks. Increased usage in the passing game as well with 13 targets in the last three games. TE Sean Brown ($4,500) caught a touchdown last week vs. Sam Houston State. Minimal targets this season but Middle Tennessee is allowing the 10th most fantasy points in the country to opposing tight ends.
Injury Notes – n/a
Middle Tennessee:
Top Play(s) – WR Elijah Metcalf ($6,000) Turns out Metcalf is who we thought DJ England-Chisolm would be this season. MTSU has had a ton of success over the years with the small, shifty slot receivers, and Metcalf fits the same mold at 5-foot-9, 167 pounds. 25 targets in the last two games alone.
Fade – RBs. We’re getting a split backfield between NIU transfer Jaiden Credle and Frank Peasant, facing the best rush defense in Conference USA, allowing just 2.63 YPC and are ranked No. 1 in defensive rush play success rate in the country. That’s due in part to facing five opponents who rank bottom third nationally in rushing, but still impressive, nonetheless. MTSU fits into the category as well, ranking 115th in rush play success rate.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Not considering any MTSU players under $5k.
Pivot Play – QB Nicholas Vattiato ($6,900) I thought I’d be coming here to write about Vattiato and potential game script with MTSU as underdogs. To my surprise, the Blue Raiders are actually favored on Wednesday. I’m assuming that is just because they’re at home, because Jacksonville State has had the better season, has the QB advantage and a MAJOR advantage on defense. So despite the Vegas line, I believe game script will force Vattiato to throw the ball 30+ times this week
Best of the Rest – WR Holden Willis ($5,600) 18 of Willis’ 22 targets have come in the last two weeks. Listed as a WR, the 218-pound former South Florida transfer really functions as a TE-hybrid coming out of the slot that has surpassed Jeremy Tate on the depth chart with his recent play. WR Justin Olson ($5,400) is a North Carolina transfer that has seen his playing time increase in recent weeks, seeing a season-high eight targets vs. Western Kentucky. MTSU generally rotates 5-6 receivers on a consistent basis, but the trio of Olson, Willis and Metcalf have easily been the most productive of the group.
Injury Notes – n/a
Florida International vs. New Mexico State
Point-Spread: NMSU -6
O/U Total: 49.5
Implied Score: NMSU 27.5 – FIU 22
Weather: 79 degrees / 4% rain / 8 mph winds
Florida International:
Top Play(s) – WR Kris Mitchell ($6,400) Mitchell is the best WR on the slate by a WIDE margin and the one true lock that needs to be in 100% of lineups. 30% of the team target share with four of FIU’s five receiving touchdowns this season, while averaging 20 yards per reception. Mitchell is essentially what we thought Tyrese Chambers was going to be last season. Five receivers have scored double-digit fantasy points against the Aggies this season.
Fade – RB Shomari Lawrence ($6,200) Lawrence burst onto the scene in the opening week, rushing for 139 yards and a touchdown against Louisiana Tech. Since then, his carries and YPA averages have decreased with every passing week. That came to a head against Liberty where RB Kejon Owens ($6,300) out-carried Lawrence. Have we seen a transition atop the RB depth chart? New Mexico State is 112th in rush D success rate and allowing over 15 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season. In that sense Lawrence could be a massive pivot play against the field if he retains the starting job. Just not sure that’s the case.
Bargain Bin – TE Josiah Miamen ($3,500) Maybe this is just blind hope that one of my preseason sleepers could still pan out. Hasn’t worked out that way with just 44 receiving yards on the season but was targeted a season-high four times against Liberty. 49 vacated targets from last year’s TE1 so this is a system that utilizes the position.
Pivot Play – WR Jalen Bracey ($5,100) Was shut out against Liberty but had five receptions in each of the prior two games before that. Second on the team with 23 targets. This is a centralized target share with minimal rotation at WR with Bracey, Mitchell, and Davis Patterson ($4,200) combining for 63%. Multiple FIU receivers in the same lineup is a longshot possibility.
Best of the Rest – QB Keyone Jenkins ($6,700) Will likely see the lowest ownership of the four QBs on the slate, but really isn’t that far off from the rest of the group with a 20-point projection. The FIU offense has transformed in a positive direction since his insertion into the lineup, now averaging over 250 yards per game in four starts. The Aggies are allowing 23 FPPG to opposing QB1s and rank terribly against the pass – 122nd in total pass play EPA and 100th in pass D success rate.
Injury Notes – n/a
New Mexico State:
Top Play(s) – QB Diego Pavia ($7,300) I prefer Logan Smothers to Pavia here, but these two are easily the top quarterback options on the slate. And yes, this is a slate that you must use two quarterbacks. Florida International doesn’t great out terrible against the pass – ranked 32nd in pass D success rate, but that’s not really why we’re interested in Pavia as a fantasy option. We saw just last week what a dual-threat QB can accomplish against FIU with Liberty’s Kaidon Salter combining for four scores with 77 yards and two TDs on the ground.
Fade – RB Jamoni Jones ($4,600) Another category where FIU has been better than expected, ranking 49th in rush D success rate, and allowing just 14.4 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Surprised that a Jerry Kill coached team doesn’t have better talent at the RB position where Jones has averaged under four yards a carry in three of the five games played. Averaging just five rushing attempts per game and a complete non-factor as a receiver out of the backfield. I’d love for NMSU to find more ways to get RB Monte Watkins ($4,300) more involved instead of wasting carries on Jones. The former TCU transfer is averaging over 11 yards per attempt.
Bargain Bin – WR Kordell David ($3,500) Team’s leading receiver a year ago, David has not been effective in 2023, converting on just three of the 12 targets directed his way this season with zero touchdowns. Plays the most of any of the NMSU receivers, though.
Pivot Play – WR Jonathan Brady ($5,200) First on the team in targets (16) and touchdowns (3) while averaging over 25 yards per reception. WR Trent Hudson ($4,300) was not targeted a single time in Week 4 vs. Hawaii, playing just 21 of 48 offensive snaps. New Mexico State is 114th in pass play percentage (42%) so you’re only investing in one Aggie wideout in your lineup.
Best of the Rest – RB Star Thomas ($5,500) Far more effective player of the two NMSU running backs, averaging over five yards a carry, and is a very good receiver out of the backfield with 11 receptions on 11 targets. Leads the team with eight red-zone rushing attempts.
Injury Notes – n/a
Sam Houston State vs. Liberty
Point-Spread: Lib -18.5
O/U Total: 45.5
Implied Score: Lib 32 – SHSU 13.5
Weather: 72 degrees / 4% rain / 1 mph winds
Sam Houston State:
Top Play(s) – RB John Gentry ($5,200) Offensive explosion last week for SHSU, who entered the Jacksonville State matchup having scored just one offensive touchdown in four games. The Bearkats quadrupled that number against what had been one of the better defenses in Conference USA in the Gamecocks. Liberty isn’t far behind Jacksonville State in conference defensive rankings, allowing nearly double the yards per carry on the ground in 2023. A tad inflated given Liberty has faced a far more difficult schedule but should be a decent matchup for former Utah State transfer John Gentry who racked up 35 touches in last week’s loss. Added bonus with his usage in the passing game with 10 targets in the last two weeks. Liberty is allowing just 10.5 FPPG this season to RB1s.
Fade – QB Keegan Shoemaker ($5,200) On the verge of being replaced by Gunner Gunnell, Shoemaker had his best performance of the season with 290 passing yards and two scores last week. Maybe he’s turned a corner this season, but we still project him a distant fourth among the four QB options on the slate. Liberty is allowing just 14.1 FPPG to opposing QB1s and 40th in pass D success rate.
Bargain Bin – WR Malik Phillips ($3,700) Appears as though Phillips has taken Adeyi’s spot in the starting lineup as he played the second most offensive snaps of any wide receiver against Jacksonville State and was targeted a season-high four times.
Pivot Play – WR Noah Smith ($4,700) Smith is the guy in the SHSU passing game now that fellow receiver Ife Adeyi is out for the season due to injury. That was on display last week as Smith had a season-high 10 receptions on 12 targets. The only other healthy player on the roster with double-digit targets this season is RB John Gentry.
Best of the Rest – n/a. Would not roster anyone outside the four players listed above.
Injury Notes – n/a
Liberty:
Top Play(s) – QB Kaidon Salter ($8,000) Some optimal lineups you see out there might have Reed paired with a different QB on the slate, but I don’t think this is a spot where you try and get cute. The former Tennessee transfer and former 4-star recruit has been one of the best fantasy quarterbacks in the country this season, scoring 33 fantasy points or more in three of four games played. SHSU is allowing just 18 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks but gave up 28 Fpts last week to Logan Smothers who is very similar to Salter athletically. Make sure Reed and Salter are in your lineups and figure out the rest.
Fade – WR Noah Frith ($4,300) Box scores show that Noah Frith is kind of just out there, running routes…and that’s about it. Just seven targets in four games despite playing the most offensive snaps of any Liberty receiver this season. Maybe you perceive that as a pivot opportunity. I see it as wasted space in your lineup.
Bargain Bin – TE Bentley Hanshaw ($4,000) Three touchdowns in four games for Hanshaw, playing in a scheme under head coach Jamey Chadwell that has featured the tight end position in the past – remember Isaiah Likely? Jacksonville State’s TE1 scored 10.2 fantasy points against SHSU last week.
Pivot Play – WR CJ Daniels ($5,300) Can envision Daniels seeing very low ownership as we have to spend up at quarterback, while also being more attracted to the Louisiana Tech and WKU receivers. Down week against Florida International in Week 4, but he wasn’t needed in the 30-point blowout. Daniels had a pair of 100-yard receiving performances in the two weeks prior to that.
Best of the Rest – RB Tandem. Much like we saw back at Coastal Carolina under Chadwell, this is a split backfield 50-50 between Quinton Cooley and Billy Lucas. Numbers are almost identical between the two, so I like to look at red-zone attempts to see if we get any advantages. Minimal difference there with a 7-6 slight edge to Cooley. WR Treon Sibley ($5,000) has emerged as the WR2 behind Daniels with nearly 200 receiving yards in the last two games with a pair of scores.
Injury Notes – n/a
Western Kentucky vs. Louisiana Tech
Point-Spread: WKU -5.5
O/U Total: 59.5
Implied Score: WKU 32.5 – La Tech 27
Weather: 77 degrees / 33% rain / 6 mph winds
Western Kentucky:
Top Play(s) – QB Austin Reed ($8,800) Your DFS funeral if you’re not including Reed in a lineup. Has the WKU passing game played up to expectations yet this season? No. Injuries and inconsistent play out of the WR position have mostly contributed to that. The Hilltoppers passing game ranks just 65th in success rate with Reed averaging almost 50 yards per game less than he did in 2022 with a significant drop in QB rating. Reed will also be facing a Louisiana Tech secondary that is 9th in pass D success rate and allowing just 16.8 FPPG to opposing QB1s. None of that matters here, though, on a two-game slate. Lock him into all of your lineups.
Fade – Outside Receivers Not Named Dalvin Smith. This speaks to our point above about this passing game not being as effective as it was a year ago. WKU has used all sorts of combinations to this point with Jimmy Holliday, Moussa Barry, Blue Smith and Craig Burt Jr. and the production simply isn’t there. There’s a reason four different outside receivers are splitting snaps equally most weeks. WKU is searching for a permanent solution that simply isn’t there opposite Smith.
Bargain Bin – RB Elijah Young ($3,900) Four-way split at running back for a team that is 129th nationally in rush play percentage. It is absolutely not necessary to roster any WKU running backs. With that said, Louisiana Tech is allowing 26.3 FPPG to opposing backfields, Young is seeing more playing time than the other three options, and La Tech is 102nd in rush D success rate.
Pivot Play – WR Dalvin Smith ($5,300) Production wasn’t there last week with just three receptions on five targets but promising that he played nearly 50% of the offensive snaps in his first game back from injury. He’s the team’s best outside receiver and we’ll bank on his production getting back to normal standards. I suspect ownership numbers will be down.
Best of the Rest – N/A
Injury Notes – WR Blue Smith ($3,800) Smith was not dressed for the matchup with Middle Tennessee last week and has missed the last two games. Was the team’s starting outside receiver opposite Dalvin Smith when healthy (nobody has stepped up in his place either).
Louisiana Tech:
Top Play(s) – RB Tyre Shelton ($5,900) Lack of proven RB options for this slate gives Shelton the nod here as Tech’s top play. Didn’t think much of the former Miami (Ohio) transfer coming into the year, but he’s proven me incredibly wrong with consecutive 100-yard rushing performances against North Texas and UTEP. Not exactly a gauntlet, but WKU is equally as poor defending the run, ranking 90th in rush D success rate.
Fade – QB Jack Turner ($5,100) This slate differs from Wednesday in that I see only two potential QB options in Reed and Salter. We could potentially see two QBs if Hank Bachmeier is healthy. Turner also showed last week that he’s not the better option of the two, completing just 45% of his throws. Also a non-runner so very limited value.
Bargain Bin – WR Tru Edwards ($4,200) Edwards was a riser during fall camp, nabbing the starting outside receiver role opposite Cyrus Allen. While Edwards has played in every game this season, it has not been at 100% health. He looked the part last Friday with 52 yards and a score on six targets.
Pivot Play – RB Marquis Crosby ($3,500) Think this is probably too big a risk to take given that Crosby had one carry on nine snaps in his return to the field last week. But the sophomore running back would’ve been ahead of Shelton on the depth chart to open the year had he been healthy. And I saw that 20-yard run he had against UTEP…looked explosive. We’ll see if he gets an uptick in game reps on Thursday. If Shelton was not playing as well as, we’d be far more intrigued.
Best of the Rest – WR Cyrus Allen ($6,500) and/or Smoke Harris ($7,300) Same argument as last week – these two are playable together or separately but must have at least one in your lineup. The duo combines for 45% of the team’s target share. Three of the top four highest scoring receivers against WKU this season play on the outside, so that gives the slightest nod to Allen for me, but not by much.
Injury Notes – QB Hank Bachmeier ($6,100) I was incorrect last week in thinking that Jack Turner was a better option at QB for the Bulldogs than Bachmeier is. I think the senior QB is in play if he’s available, but that’s TBD as of Tuesday writing this. WKU is allowing 22 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks this season.
