Marshall @ North Texas
Point-Spread: Mars -11
O/U Total: 66.5
Weather: 64 degrees / 0% rain / 17 mph winds
Marshall:
How many Marshall players can we jam into one lineup? Rasheen Ali? Lock him in against a North Texas defense that is 111th against the run this season and allowing 26 FPPG to opposing RB1s. We had a good feeling about Ali coming into the year as a runner, but did not foresee what he’s doing as a pass-catcher, averaging five targets per game with 22 receptions. Grant Wells continues to sling the pill, averaging 40.3 pass attempts per which is fifth highest in the country. Despite being 11-point dogs, North Texas showed some fight last week against Missouri on the road, and were drastically better on offense with Austin Aune at QB, so I don’t foresee a negative game script here that alters Wells’ passing volume too much. The Mean Green have been marginally better at defending the pass, allowing 24.4 FPPG to opposing QBs, and held Connor Bazelak to just 168 yards last week. Sit 70th in Defensive Pass Play Success Rate. Looks like 17 MPH winds expected as of Wednesday writing this, which is right at the threshold where we start to concern ourselves a bit with how the passing game could be impacted.
High passing volume = plenty of targets to go around for the Marshall receivers. Shadeed Ahmed has really come on strong the last two games, seeing the majority of the snaps in the slot, and accumulating seven receptions on 10 targets in each of the last two weeks. Ahmed’s been the beneficiary of Talik Keaton being out of the lineup with a broken hand, and it doesn’t sound as if he’ll be back for a few weeks. Corey Gammage has been a constant in the Marshall passing game, sitting 10th nationally in targets with 58 and hit the double-digit fantasy point mark in five of the six games played this season. Willie Johnson sits second on the team with 33 targets, though is the third or fourth option for Wells with the emergence of Ahmed. Averaging seven targets per contest over the last month at $4,500 makes him a definite option. North Texas is allowing 10.8 FPPG to opposing tight ends this season. Xavier Gaines sees about 2/3 of the team snaps and is averaging five targets a game.
North Texas:
I know the score ended up being closer against Missouri last week, but a lot of Austin Aune’s numbers came in garbage time with three of the four touchdowns coming in the fourth quarter. Still, the improvements on offense were evident with Aune under center, as it was the first time since Week 2 (!) that North Texas threw more than 100 yards in a game. Aune finished with 305 yards and four touchdowns, but did have two interceptions as well. Even with the struggles through the air, UNT is averaging more passing attempts this season (35.6) than they did a year ago, and this is a game script that should favor Aune as a double-digit dog. Outside of the 46-point performance from Holton Ahlers, the Marshall defense has been very good against the pass, ranking 50th in Pass Play Success Rate and allowing just 176 yards per game through the air. Allowing 16.8 FPPG to opposing QBs this season not named Ahlers.
With Jyaire Shorter out indefinitely and Deonte Simpson now dismissed from the team, who gets the targets? With Aune back at the helm, I think we need to give another strong look to Roderic Burns who led the team with 5-71-1 vs. Missouri. He’s sitting right under 10 targets a game on the season. Will have to check the game week depth chart for Friday (not out yet) but looks like Damon Ward Jr and Bryson Jackson would get the start on the outside now with Simpson gone. Ward Jr. saw the third most snaps among receivers vs. Missouri and did find the end-zone. Jackson didn’t play, so we’ll need to check his availability. With the depleted WR rotation, UNT has gotten the tight ends more involved of late with Jason Pirtle who also hit pay-dirt last weekend. Averaging a little over four targets per game.
RB1 DeAndre Torrey continues to be the one constant for the UNT offense, averaging 24 touches per game and 21.6 fantasy points. To beat the Marshall defense, it’s typically on the ground as the Herd are allowing 19.1 FPPG to opposing RBs this season and are 103rd in Rush Play Success Rate. UNT is 37th in Line Yards, so advantage Torrey there.
Clemson @ Syracuse
Point-Spread: Clem -14
O/U Total: 45
Weather: Dome
Clemson:
Will Shipley has already been announced out this week, with Dabo Swinney saying he is off crutches now, meaning we should get another heavy dose of Kobe Pace who rushed for 125 yards and a TD on 18 carries vs. Boston College. Backup Phil Mafah did see some work with eight carries, averaging 7.3 YPC, but I’d expect the split to be similar between the two backs this week. Been tough sledding against the Cuse this season on the ground – outside of the Florida State game – as the Orange are giving up just 3.1 YPC and opposing RB1s averaging just 10.1 FPPG. Don’t see any major statistical advantages here for the Clemson rushing attack so Pace is a decent play at his pricing, but not someone we need to be overweight on. At receiver, still just two playable options here in Justyn Ross and Joseph Ngata who account for 46 percent of the target share. Both should continue to be featured as E.J. Williams is still not 100 percent healthy according to Swinney, and Frank Ladson is questionable with a groin injury. In Ladson’s place, FR Beaux Collins saw his most extended work of the season against BC with five targets – didn’t convert on any. Tight end Braden Galloway was in concussion protocol during the bye week and no update as of now. Just nine targets on the season with six coming in the opener against UGA.
The continued dilemma of D.J. Uiagalelei and if we need to roster him this week. How much did the bye week help as a reset to DJU’s season? Syracuse is sitting second in the ACC in pass defense but this is a beatable secondary. 51st in Pass Play Success Rate. Allowing opposing QBs to complete nearly 70 percent of their passes. Allowed eight of the 10 touchdowns passes in the last three games where Sam Hartman, Malik Willis and Jordan Travis have all scored 28 fantasy points or more. I know the Orange had that massive upset over Clemson at home in 2017, but this really is a series that has been dominated by the Tigers over the last decade.
Syracuse:
Dino Babers may have saved his job by finally transforming his offense to something that is successful with Garrett Shrader under center, but this isn’t the week to start him. Clemson is allowing just 16 FPPG to opposing QBs, which only partially applies to Shrader as he’s averaging just 11 completions per game since taking over as the starter. The Tigers are allowing under three yards a carry on the ground and now have had an extra week to prepare for the Cuse offense with the bye. Sean Tucker is a no-go this week at his pricing for me, along with the plethora of options available to us at running back. Clemson is allowing just 10.7 FPPG to opposing RBs this season. The volume Tucker receives is about the only appealing attribute for Tucker this week, averaging 29 touches per game since Shrader took over the QB1 spot. Only two viable options in the passing game for Syracuse look to be slot-man Courtney Jackson and Anthony Queeley, with the latter being the preferred of the two for me. Jackson has led the team in targets (13) in each of the last two weeks, but Queeley isn’t far behind at 11, found the end-zone in the each of the last two games, and higher upside with an aDOT of 21.5 in that span.
California @ Oregon
Point-Spread: Oreg -13.5
O/U Total: 54
Weather: 55 degrees / 3% rain / 2 mph winds
California:
Not much on the injury front to monitor here with slot receiver Nikko Remigio considered day-to-day after being nicked up against Washington State two weeks ago. No wideout accounts for more than 16 percent of the target share for the Bears so really nobody here of great interest to us. Remigio leads the team with 18 receptions on 27 targets, but spread fairly even amongst him, Trevon Clark (25 targets), Jeremiah Hunter (22 targets) and Kekoa Crawford (21 targets). Crawford, last year’s WR1 has played one less game this season and has emerged slightly in the last two weeks with 11 of his 14 receptions coming in that span. Of the available options, I’d probably side with him. Tight end Jake Tonges had 10 receptions on 13 targets in the first four games, but was shutout against Washington State in both categories – a reflection of how dismal the entire Cal offense was against the Cougars. If an offense does find success against Oregon, its been through the air as the Ducks are 108th in Pass Play Success Rate and are allowing 29 FPPG to opposing QBs on the year. Does that put Chase Garbers in the player pool for us of available options? There was a three-week span there where I thought Garbers turned a corner, averaging 31 fantasy points against TCU, Sacramento State and at Washington, but then puts up the clunker vs. Washington State at home. Garbers does have 25 rushing attempts over the last two weeks. I’d personally rather have some 2-QB combination of Wells, DJU, Anthony Brown or Austin Aune over Garbers, but don’t think he’s an all-out fade this week.
Advanced numbers LOVE the Cal running game, ranking 1st in Line Yards and eighth in Rush Play Success Rate. I think those are heavily weighted towards the beginning of the season where the Bears found success against poor run defenses in the first three weeks of the season. In Pac-12 play, Cal has averaged under four yards a carry as a team vs. Washington and Washington State. RB1 Damien Moore was dominated the volume in the backfield for the first four games, but saw just three attempts against Washington State – I believe due to a fumble and just how the game played out with Cal trailing by double-digits. All things even, I still believe Moore is the RB to own here if choosing one. Oregon has limited opponents to under four yards a carry in four of their five games played this season, and allowing just 12.7 FPPG to opposing RB1s. I’d suggesting fading the Cal backfield here.
Oregon:
The consensus appears to be that we will see a heavy dosage of Travis Dye on Friday night now that CJ Verdell is out for the season, with any mix of the three freshmen running backs seeing sporadic time when Dye needs a breather. Not the easiest of matchups against a Cal defense that currently ranks fourth in the Pac-12 defending the run, with only one 100-yard rusher allowed all year, but 20 touches should be the expectation for Dye on Friday. As for who will be the second RB on the field, I don’t have a great answer at this point in time as Seven McGee, Trey Benson and Byron Cardwell have seen less than 10 snaps this entire season. If forced to choose one, McGee would be the guy for me with his unique skillset and blazing speed, running a 4.3 40-yard dash and was reportedly clocked at 22 MPH.
Cal can be had through the air, ranking 80th in Pass Play Success Rate and 11th in the Pac-12, allowing 280 yards per game. Opposing QBs are averaging over 30 FPPG. Should be a good game for Anthony Brown then, yes? He’s looked very shaky in the three games since the Ohio State upset, completing just 50 percent of his passes in the last two games and threw a pick last week vs. Stanford. Still managed to get there in terms of fantasy production with five total touchdowns, averaging 20 PPG in that span. Might Brown get some more work on the ground with Verdell out? 12 rushing attempts in each of the last three games, right around his average for the season in competitive matchups. I’ll stick with the complete fade of Oregon receivers until further notice. No Oregon wideout has more than 15 percent of the target share.
San Diego State @ San Jose State
Point-Spread: SDSU -9
O/U Total: 41.5
Weather: 72 degrees / 0% rain / 4 mph winds
San Diego State:
I haven’t ever rostered a San Diego State quarterback in a DFS slate, and don’t anticipate that streak ending any time soon. Jordan Brookshire was back as the starter against New Mexico last weekend and did top 20 fantasy points for the second time this season as he rushed for 45 yards and two touchdowns on five attempts. Results weren’t there via the pass as he completed just 46 percent of his throws for minimal yardage. I don’t see a viable edge here that makes Brookshire an option with this low a game total as a multi-score favorite. San Jose State is 93rd in Defensive Points Per Opportunity allowed so teams are cashing in once they enter the red-zone. The Aztecs are fifth in the country in run-play percentage at 69 percent. We probably shouldn’t anticipate a ton of yardage from Brookshire on the ground either as SJSU has 13 sacks through six games with one of the best defensive lines in the conference.
Greg Bell was back last week, and handled the rushing load with 21-111-1. The Aztecs didn’t have another running back with more than six attempts, and that was in a blowout. With San Jose State likely keeping this contest more competitive than New Mexico did last week, I’d expect another workhorse type load for Bell who is averaging 23 carries in the games he’s been fully healthy. With such a low-volume passing attack, we have minimal interest in the receivers which I would rank in this order of preference based on target data / snap counts – Jesse Matthews-> Daniel Bellinger -> Tyrell Shavers -> BJ Busbee -> Elijah Kothe. Matthews has the highest target share of the group at just 14 percent so really…just pick a name out of a hat.
San Jose State:
A reporter asked Brent Brennan if quarterback Nick Starkel would be available this week. His response – “this isn’t the NFL, buddy.” Ah the joys of covering College Fantasy Football. The San Diego Tribune did drop a hint that the Aztecs, as of now, expect to face Nick Nash on Friday who started the last two games for San Jose State. We saw both the good and bad with Nash the last two weeks, completing 83 percent of his passes with three touchdowns against New Mexico State in Week 5, followed by a disastrous performance against Colorado State where Nash led just two scoring drives and turned the ball over twice in a blowout loss. To beat San Diego State, Nash will have to find success via the pass as the Aztecs sit No. 1 in the Mountain West and second nationally at defending the run, allowing just 49.6 yards per game. SDSU is giving up just 17 FPPG to opposing QB1s. With that said, it’s a full fade of the San Jose State backfield against this rush D. 2-1 split advantage goes to Tyler Nevens in terms of volume between him and Kairee Robinson, but factoring in Nash here as well, I don’t think this is the week to be starting anyone there. San Diego State has allowed the least amount of fantasy points to running backs in the entire country thus far.
Part of the reason San Jose State’s offense has fluttered this season compared to last is due in large part to the receivers who simply aren’t at the level of a Bailey Gaither or Tre Walker. Of the wideouts available to us, Isaiah Hamilton gets top billing, leading the team with 21 receptions on 32 targets. Charles Ross is the only other receiver with double-digit catches this year, though the snap counts heavily favored the trio of Hamilton, Ross and Jermaine Braddock last week vs. Colorado State so those are the three of any interest if choosing someone. Tight end Derrick Deese has been a monster the last two weeks with 11 receptions on 16 targets with a touchdown in each game. He is second on the team in targets with 32. SDSU has allowed just one tight end to top double-digit fantasy points this season.