South Florida vs. North Texas
- Point-Spread: UNT -1
- O/U Total: 68
- Implied Score: UNT 34.5 – USF 33.5
- Weather: 80 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
South Florida:
Top Play(s) – QB Byrum Brown ($8,500) Top QB option on the slate and don’t be scared off by North Texas ranking No. 1 in the AAC in pass defense. North Texas has faced Lamar, Western Michigan who averages 147 YPG passing, an abysmal Washington State offense, Army who runs the triple-option, and South Alabama’s Bishop Davenport. 13 or more rushing attempts for Brown in all but one game this season – a blowout of South Carolina State – and could take on more responsibilities with Cartevious Norton out for the season.
Fade – RB Alvon Isaac ($4,200) Isaac had been the first on the field after Cartevious Norton but would not be surprised if he’s lost his spot on the depth chart with just 47 rushing yards combined in the last three weeks, including a fumble vs. Charlotte.
Bargain Bin – WR Mudia Reuben ($3,800) The USF wide receiver rotation beyond Nimrod and Singleton has been tough to decipher, but against Charlotte it was Reuben who ran the third most routes out of the slot position, catching four passes with a touchdown on five targets. When healthy, he’s the starter inside.
Pivot Play – RB Sam Franklin ($4,600) A former Oklahoma transfer and 1,300-yard rusher with Tennessee-Martin at one point, Franklin has emerged the last two games with a combined 166 yards and two touchdowns. With Isaac in the doghouse and Norton out, look for Franklin to take the first snap next to Byrum Brown on Friday. North Texas is 104th in rush D success rate and 10th in the conference in yards allowed per game on the ground.
Best of the Rest – WR Chas Nimrod ($5,200) or WR Keshaun Singleton ($4,900) Nimrod and Singleton has both scored double-digit fantasy points just once in five games this season, so preferably are only playing one per lineup. Nimrod is clearly the first option of the two, scoring double-digit fantasy points in each of the last three games, including a touchdown on nine targets vs. Charlotte. Nimrod would have had 30 points if not for two drops last week.
Injury Notes – RB Cartevious Norton (out)
North Texas:
Top Play(s) – RB Caleb Hawkins ($7,600) The freshman running back has fully taken over the RB1 job over Makenzie McGill after accounting for over 50% of North Texas’ total scrimmage yards and three touchdowns in the win over South Alabama. Seven total touchdowns now in the last two games alone. We knew the North Texas offense would be explosive but did not foresee the Mean Green ranking in the top third in the country in rushing – 180.4 YPG ranks better than Penn State, Texas and Notre Dame.
Fade – MaKenzie McGill ($6,600) McGill does have four rushing touchdowns in five games, and while falling behind Hawkins on the depth chart, still have double-digit rushing attempts in the last two games. Here’s the differentiator to me why he’s a fade. In Week 4 vs. Army, Hawkins held a 5-3 advantage in red zone carries. Against South Alabama in Week 5, it was 3-0 inside the red zone again in favor of Hawkins. If McGill isn’t getting carries near the goal line, he’s not as valuable.
Bargain Bin – TE Tre Williams ($3,100) Williams won’t see a high number of targets, but does have two touchdowns, is fifth on the team in routes run and plays over 75% of the team’s offensive snaps. We just thought he’d have a bigger role this season, averaging only 2.1 targets per contest. WR Cameron Dorner ($3,000) is more of a desperation play if you have $3k remaining to build your lineup. His role has declined considerably since WR Landon Sides ($5,000) returned to the lineup.
Pivot Play – QB Drew Mestemaker ($7,500) Mestemaker has been a relative disappointment compared to expectations, given that this coaching staff has produced some top-flight fantasy options in recent years. Nobody expected North Texas to be as balanced offensively as they are. This could be the game where we see UNT air it out a bit more – South Florida has held all three non P4 opponents to under four yards a carry. If you fade Hawkins, Mestemaker is a must in lineups.
Best of the Rest – WR Miles Coleman ($5,700) 15 fantasy points in each of the last two games for Coleman, who leads the team in targets (36), receptions (245) and yards (221), though has not found the end-zone yet this season. North Texas is a heavy rotation team at receiver, so it’s possible to play Mestemaker solo on any slate with Coleman only accounting for 22% of the target share. WR Wyatt Young ($4,000) is the team leader with three touchdowns and comes in when North Texas is in 4-wide as the secondary slot receiver. Priority for UNT receivers in order would be Coleman -> Sides -> Young -> Dorner -> Simeon Evans.
Injury Notes – n/a
Fresno State vs. Colorado State
- Point-Spread: Fres -7.5
- O/U Total: 46.5
- Implied Score: Fres 27 – CSU 19.5
- Weather: 65 degrees / 18% rain / 5 mph winds
Fresno State:
Top Play(s) – RB Rayshon Luke ($5,600) Luke has been the best Fresno State running back this season, something we did not anticipate saying back in August. I do think RB Bryson Donelson ($6,400) has been playing hurt this season, which has clearly hampered his performances, averaging just 2.0 yards per carry over the last two weeks. Luke, meanwhile, is averaging 1.5 yards more per attempt for the season, has the team lead in rushing touchdowns (5) and is better in the passing game with 19 receptions on 20 targets.
Fade – QB EJ Warner ($7,200) There are four quarterback options on the slate, and none are from this snoozer of a Mountain West matchup. Fresno State doesn’t want to throw the football, ranked 88th in pass play rate and probably won’t need to against this anemic Colorado State offense.
Bargain Bin – TE Richie Anderson ($4,100) Anderson had a breakout game vs. Nevada last week with 7-67-0 on eight targets. He could be the secondary option in the passing game on Friday if Ezekiel Avit does not play, as Anderson leads all Fresno State pass-catchers in routes run this season.
Pivot Play – WR Josiah Freeman ($4,800) Freeman leads Fresno State in targets (26), yards (211) and touchdowns (2), both of which came last Saturday against Nevada. Like Anderson, he gets a bump if Avit is out.
Best of the Rest – WR Jordan Malau’ulu ($3,300) Malau’ulu came on for Ezekiel Avit last week and was third on the team in routes run. No telling, though, if Malau’ulu will still be the preferred option if Avit is out as he was targeted just one time with his extended action and wound up being a drop. Fresno State wide receivers, beyond Freeman, are close to unplayable.
Injury Notes – WR Ezekiel Avit (questionable)
Colorado State:
Top Play(s) – RB Jalen Dupree ($5,300) Dupree is the only source of offense right now for the Rams, rushing for 103 yards on 16 carries vs. San Diego State last week. Time for CSU to lean into the run game as they did a year ago with the pass game struggles, even if its against this coaching staff’s tendencies. Fresno State is second in the conference in rush yards allowed (110 YPG) and 65th in rush D success rate, so Dupree is far from a priority play.
Fade – QB Jackson Brousseau ($6,500) Remember when Jay Norvell teams used to be fun back at Nevada with Carson Strong and Ty Gangi? Yes, this ain’t that. Even with the change of play-callers last week the Rams managed just 206 yards through the air.
Best of the Rest – WR Armani Winfield ($3,900) or WR Tommy Maher ($4,700) Winfield and Maher are the only two CSU receivers to have more than 10 receptions or 100 receiving yards this season. No Colorado State pass-catcher has more than one touchdown. It’s bleak, to say the least.
Injury Notes – n/a
Rutgers vs. Washington
- Point-Spread: UW -10.5
- O/U Total: 58.5
- Implied Score: UW 34.5 – Rut 24
- Weather: 57 degrees / 76% rain / 5 mph winds
Rutgers:
Top Play(s) – RB Antwan Raymond ($6,000) Washington has a stout run defense, ranked fourth in the B1G in yards allowed per game, but volume is king in college fantasy football, and Raymond is getting the rock with CJ Campbell out for the season. Against Minnesota, Raymond ran for 161 yards and two scores on 26 attempts, the fourth straight game in which the sophomore back has found the end-zone twice. Just two running backs carried the ball vs. the Gophers with no Rutgers player having more than five attempts. High-floor play.
Fade – Non-starters. Raymond will dominate the volume share in the backfield, and Rutgers throws to three receivers. No need to consider anyone else.
Bargain Bin – TE Kenny Fletcher ($3,400) Fletcher’s playing time has steadily increased as the year has gone along since coming back from last season’s injury. Fletcher has been targeted four times in each of the last two games, catching three passes in each. Washington allowed nine receptions to Maryland tight end Dorian Fleming in last week’s matchup.
Pivot Play – QB Athan Kaliakmanis ($7,000) Kaliakmanis’ 18-point projection puts him at a distant fourth among the QB options on the slate, but the Greek Rifle has already surpassed many expectations in 2025, why can’t he do it here? The Washington secondary is the weakness on defense, ranked 90th in pass D success rate and 10th in the B1G in yards allowed per game through the air.
Best of the Rest – WRs. I would have one Rutgers receiver in every constructed lineup, and stacking two together is also viable. The trio of KJ Duff, DT Sheffield and Ian Strong combine for 79% of the team’s receiving production, 73% of the target share and 8 of the team’s 11 touchdowns.
Injury Notes – RB CJ Campbell (out)
Washington:
Top Play(s) – RB Jonah Coleman ($7,000) Have a feeling we’re going to see early September Jonah Coleman in a favorable matchup with a Rutgers defense that is 12th in the conference in yards allowed per game on the ground and 108th in rush D success rate.
Fade – WR Omari Evans ($3,600) Evans has been targeted just three times in three games since his return from injury, and barely played in a competitive game with Maryland last week, not recording a single target. Seems this WR room has been turned over to Denzel Boston and the freshmen.
Bargain Bin – WR Dezmen Roebuck ($4,600) The 5-foot-11 freshman has caught four passes in each of the last two games vs. B1G opponents, including 61 yards and a score against Maryland on Saturday. We’ve seen two Washington receivers be CFF options in the past, and Roebuck seems to be the WR2 behind Denzel Boston. Fellow freshman WR Raiden Vines-Bright ($3,000) doesn’t have the numbers that Roebuck does, but his playing time has steadily increased with each passing week with a season high 79% of snaps played against Maryland.
Pivot Play – Stack the Big 3. Rutgers doesn’t defend the run or pass well, ranked 108th in rush D success rate and 127th in pass success rate. Of the 24 offensive touchdowns this season from the Huskies, the trio of Coleman, Williams and Boston have had a hand in 16 of those scores. Most will have at least one and possibly two Huskies in a lineup, but three could be a GPP winning combo.
Best of the Rest – TE Decker DeGraaf ($4,500) DeGraaf is second on the team in routes run, coming off his best performance of the year with 62 yards and six receptions vs. Maryland.
Injury Notes – WR Rashid Williams (out)
Mike’s DK Core Four:
- QB Byrum Brown, South Florida
- RB Antwan Raymond, Rutgers
- RB Jonah Coleman, Washington
- A Rutgers WR
Mike’s FD Core Four:
- QB Byrum Brown, South Florida
- A Rutgers WR
- RB Jonah Coleman, Washington
- RB Antwan Raymond, Rutgers
