Auburn @ Arkansas
Point-Spread: Ark -4.5
O/U Total: 54
Weather: 59 degrees / 0% rain / 10 mph winds
Auburn:
This is mostly a fade spot here at just 24.75 implied points taking on one of the better defenses in the country in the Razorbacks, despite last weekend’s showing. Bo Nix had one of the best performances of his career last year against Arkansas, but does not project well this week sitting around 12 fantasy points. Take out Matt Corral’s 47-point outburst and the Razorbacks are giving up just 13 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season and are 22nd in Defensive Pass Play Success Rate. Nix’s rushing attempts are down significantly in 2021, averaging just 5.8 att/g but its picked up of late with 22 carries in the last two weeks. Not sure I agree with the projection of having Tank Bigsby at 17.3 fantasy points but its not as though the Razorbacks have completely shut down the run this season, allowing 16.2 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Edge in the trenches probably goes to the Tigers where they’re 15th in Line Yards and 25th in Rush Play Success Rate, but we just haven’t seen the volume from Bigsby of late, averaging only 12 carries a game over the last three weeks. Bigsby had as many snaps as Shaun Shivers did against Georgia. Unless I see some firm indication somewhere that Bigsby is set to see a heavy workload, it’s a fade for me.
Demetris Robertson has emerged as the WR1 over the last month with 28 of his 35 targets coming in the last three games. Kobe Hudson’s weekly projection is lower by just 0.1 points this week at a significantly lower cost. Not saying a better play than Robertson, but he’s been the most consistent of the Auburn receivers, averaging over five targets a game on the year. Every other Auburn receiver would be risky. Arkansas is allowing just 2.6 FPPG to opposing TE1s this season, so probably not looking to target John Samuel Shenker who sits fourth on the team with 29 targets. Shedrick Jackson is third with 31.
Arkansas:
The big three is really all we are after here in KJ Jefferson, Trelon Smith and Treylon Burks, with nobody really jumping out as an exceptional play. Middle of the road pass defense for Auburn that will likely force Jefferson to beat them with his arm on Saturday. Allow 22.7 FPPG to opposing QBs this season, but nobody has topped 28 fantasy points scored against the Tigers. Arkansas ranks 11th in the SEC in passing offense and have attempted the fewest passes in the conference. Auburn can be dicey on the back end, ranking ninth in the SEC against the pass and are 101st in Pass Play Success Rate. So much for the health questions about Jefferson too, as he had a season-high 20 rushing attempts vs. Ole Miss. Burks led the way last week with 7-136-1 but we saw Jefferson spread the ball around more times than he had all season, hitting eight different receivers. Plan of attack moving forward? Tyson Morris and De’Vion Warren started against Ole Miss but we’re mostly ineffective and have been for much of the season. In comes Warren Thompson and Trey Knox who saw season highs with a combined nine receptions on 14 targets with both finding the end-zone. Minimal separation in their projections, but have to figure they’re the two starters moving forward now alongside Burks with how they performed. Little to no upside with Smith in the running game with both Jefferson and Raheim Sanders snatching carries away. The true freshman had a season-high 17 carries for 139 last week against Ole Miss despite two fumbles. Auburn is third on the SEC and ninth nationally, allowing just 104 yards per game on the ground, giving up just 13.5 FPPG to opposing RBs.
Oklahoma State @ Texas
Point-Spread: Tex -3.5
O/U Total: 60.5
Weather: 68 degrees / 0% rain / 13 mph winds
Oklahoma State:
Big 3 are in play for us with Spencer Sanders, Jaylen Warren and receiver Tay Martin, all projected over 20 fantasy points this week. Nothing in particular stands out regarding Sanders this week, aside from the 27.5 implied total and game script with OSU as a 5-point dog. Averaging 11.5 carries a game which is right around his 2020 numbers. The Texas defense have given up two 30+ point performances from opposing QBs in the last three games, and are allowing a 70.8 completion percentage on the season. Texas ranks 112th in Point Per Opportunity and 106th in Pass Play Success Rate so this is a defense Sanders can take advantage of. The Longhorns were gashed against Oklahoma, allowing over eight yards a carry with the Oklahoma racking up over 300 rushing yards. Jaylen Warren should eat on Saturday, averaging 32 carries a game since taking over as the starter with at least one touchdown in four of the five games played this season. Texas is 116th in Rush Play Success Rate and giving up over five yards a carry on the year. For all the times we pay attention to systems in CFF, we ignored the outside receiver position for Oklahoma State which is typically the primary target in Mike Gundy’s offensive scheme. Holds true again in 2021 with Tay Martin who has topped 100 yards in every game this season he’s been healthy in. The interesting dilemma here is Rashod Owens who starts opposite Martin at just $3,200 and projects at 10 fantasy points this week. Seen five targets in each of the last two games. Still love the talent of Brennan Presley, but he sits third on the priority list of options in the passing game, averaging just 4.8 targets.
Texas:
Love Bijan Robinson, obviously, but based on the projections where him and Jaylen Warren are separated by less than one fantasy point, per capita, it would be Warren that is the better play of the two based on pricing. Oklahoma State sits 12th in the country, allowing just 2.76 yards per carry and have allowed over 20 fantasy points to an RB1 just once this season (16.7 FPPG). The Cowboys don’t have any real glaring weaknesses on defense as they’ve also given up just three passing touchdowns all year with one of the better secondaries in the Big 12. Tough challenge for Casey Thompson with Oklahoma State allowing just 15.2 FPPG to opposing QB1s – 10th best mark in the country – and not a single quarterback scoring more than 18 fantasy points against them this season. Doesn’t help that Thompson will be down a receiver as well with Jordan Whittington expected to miss the remainder of the season. We know Oklahoma State will be keying in on Xavier Worthy after his 261-yard performance a week ago so someone else will need to step up. We saw the Week 1 2020 Joshua Moore finally emerge from the ashes last week with 4-70-2 on a season-high seven targets. He sits currently at a 14.4-point projection at just $4,800. Marcus Washington looks to be the next man up in the slot, but has just six targets all year. Don’t be surprised if we see more of tight end Jared Wiley or even Bijan rep in the slot to make up for some of the production we lose from Whittington.
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