Texas A&M @ Missouri
Point-Spread: A&M -10.5
O/U Total: 59.5
Weather: 58 degrees / 0% rain / 10 mph winds
Texas A&M:
Running backs and the Missouri defense go together like Cocaine and Waffles (Talladega Nights reference if you didn’t catch it). Isaiah Spiller will have the highest ownership of the main slate sitting at just $6,600 and is our second-highest projected running back on the slate behind Bijan Robinson. The Missouri run defense is the worst in the country by a wide margin, allowing 288 yards per game on the ground and giving up a whopping 31.3 FPPG to opposing running backs this season, also the worst mark in the country. So how much exposure is too much exposure? Devon Achane is also in play here, both as a pivot to Spiller in case of injury and as a tandem in your lineups – averaging just north of 12 touches per game. The Tigers allow an average of nine 10+ yard gains on the ground per game which entices me more to roster Achane and his big-play ability.
We’ll keep an eye out for injuries to see if anyone is returning, but the WR corps seems to have been solidified the last few weeks with Ainias Smith, Jalen Preston and Demond Demas seeing most of the snaps, with Smith/Preston playing 99 percent of the offensive snaps vs. Alabama. Smith has led the team in targets in each of the last two games, finding the end-zone twice against the Tide. Tight end Jalen Wydermyer has found the end-zone in each of the last two weeks, though Missouri is allowing just 4.2 FPPG to opposing TEs on the year. Feels like a steal, though, at $3,900 given he accounts for 23 percent of the target share. Missouri’s struggles defending the run doesn’t help the secondary with multiple defenders having to load up the box, making the Tigers susceptible to big plays over the top. Mizzou is allowing over 30 FPPG to opposing QBs this season and are 13th in the SEC in Pass Defense Efficiency. Any confidence Zach Calzada can replicate his three-touchdown performance from last week? He would be the ultimate pivot to the A&M backfield which is going to be extremely popular.
Missouri:
Tyler Badie still projects well enough this week at 22 fantasy points that he’s still an option, but with a bevy at running backs in this slate at lower pricing, we don’t feel the need to jam him in. The Tigers are 112th in Line Yards taking on an A&M defense that is 19th in Rush Play Success Rate. Take out the Mississippi State and New Mexico games, though, and the Aggies are allowing over 4.5 yards per carry so this isn’t a defense that is impenetrable. Brian Robinson’s 23 fantasy points last week was the first time a running back topped 15 points against the Aggies all year. Limited upside with the Mizzou receivers with as each of Tauskie Dove, Keke Chism and Mookie Cooper are projected at four receptions this week. Dove projects the highest of the three for us, and the snap counts reflect that as he played 62 of 77 plays last week vs. North Texas. Chism is the far-and-away leader on the team this season with 42 targets. Cooper is officially questionable for Saturday. Game script sets up well here for Connor Bazelak but at 17.9 projected fantasy points, we’re probably staying away against an A&M secondary that is allowing just 209 yards per game through the air and 21st in Defensive Pass Play Success Rate.
Florida @ LSU
Point-Spread: FL -12
O/U Total: 59.5
Weather: 70 degrees / 0% rain / 18 mph winds
Florida:
Line has crept up to 12 with the news now that cornerback Eli Ricks has decided to have season-ending surgery, adding to the litany of injuries LSU has endured this season. Blowout forthcoming? Should be a good week for QB Emory Jones against this Tigers defense that is allowing 31.7 FPPG on the year, and doesn’t really do anything well on that side of the ball, ranking 9th in the SEC in rush defense and 11th in pass defense. High floor for Jones as he was averaging 14 carries per game prior to last week’s blowout over Vandy where they didn’t need to put their QB1 in any harm’s way. Florida should find a ton of room to run the football against an LSU front that just gave up 330 yards and three touchdowns to Kentucky last weekend. UF ranks second in the country in total rushing yards (1,642) this season and their 273.7 YPG is the best in the SEC. Issue is we have too many mouths to feed with Jones, Dameon Pierce, Malik Davis and others that our ceiling is capped. UF running backs have hit double-digit carries just three times in six games this season – all Davis – and we’ll need to ensure he plays this week as he sat against Vanderbilt and was not in uniform. Should he sit, Nay’Quan Wright is the next man up at just $3k and does project at 11.5 points. Might be a punt option. We do have some separation at receiver with Jacob Copeland sitting atop at 14 projected fantasy points and is the team leader in targets with 29 – 15 of which have come in the last two weeks. Slot receiver Trent Whittemore has seen his playing time increase in the last two games with seven receptions on 10 targets, finding the end-zone vs. Vanderbilt. He splits reps with Rick Wells in the slot. Don’t have much to say on Justin Shorter who starts opposite Copeland and is tied for second on the team with 22 targets.
LSU:
Would much rather spend an extra $100 to obtain Emory Jones in my lineups this week than someone like Max Johnson who will be taking on a Florida defense that is allowing just 16.6 FPPG to opposing QBs this season and will be without his best WR in Kayshon Boutte. I suspect Johnson will be under duress for much of the day as the Gators are tied for second in the SEC with 20 sacks and are equally as good on the back end, ranking 29th in Pass Play Success Rate. About the only appealing part about Johnson this week is potential volume, averaging 42 attempts over the last two weeks. Receiver is where we need to put our focus into because of the potential volume, and they’re all cheap. Boutte won’t be the only LSU receiver out either as Deion Smith is expected out as well. Based on last week’s snap counts, expect to see plenty of FR Brian Thomas Jr. starting on the outside with Malik Nabers in the slot. The two combined for six receptions on nine targets vs. Kentucky. Who steps in for Smith opposite Thomas Jr. I’m not 100 percent sure, but could be any combination of Trey Palmer, Jaray Jenkins or Devonta Lee. My assumption is Ed Orgeron is going to lean on the young guys to show the LSU administration this season (and his job) aren’t a total lost cause. While others focus on the cheap receivers, best play of the bunch might be to spend up to obtain tight end Jack Bech who has 10 receptions on 19 targets in the last two games alone. Opposing tight ends are averaging just 3.1 FPPG against Florida this season. I’ll take my chances in fading Tyrion Davis-Price at running back with the impression that last week’s 30-point outburst against Kentucky was an aberration. Florida’s run defense has improved immensely since last season, now sitting 5th in the SEC, allowing just 108.5 YPG and are 28th in Run Play Success Rate. I don’t see LSU’s offensive line holding up against the Gators.
Auburn @ Arkansas
Point-Spread: Ark -4.5
O/U Total: 54
Weather: 59 degrees / 0% rain / 10 mph winds
Auburn:
This is mostly a fade spot here at just 24.75 implied points taking on one of the better defenses in the country in the Razorbacks, despite last weekend’s showing. Bo Nix had one of the best performances of his career last year against Arkansas, but does not project well this week sitting around 12 fantasy points. Take out Matt Corral’s 47-point outburst and the Razorbacks are giving up just 13 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season and are 22nd in Defensive Pass Play Success Rate. Nix’s rushing attempts are down significantly in 2021, averaging just 5.8 att/g but its picked up of late with 22 carries in the last two weeks. Not sure I agree with the projection of having Tank Bigsby at 17.3 fantasy points but its not as though the Razorbacks have completely shut down the run this season, allowing 16.2 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Edge in the trenches probably goes to the Tigers where they’re 15th in Line Yards and 25th in Rush Play Success Rate, but we just haven’t seen the volume from Bigsby of late, averaging only 12 carries a game over the last three weeks. Bigsby had as many snaps as Shaun Shivers did against Georgia. Unless I see some firm indication somewhere that Bigsby is set to see a heavy workload, it’s a fade for me.
Demetris Robertson has emerged as the WR1 over the last month with 28 of his 35 targets coming in the last three games. Kobe Hudson’s weekly projection is lower by just 0.1 points this week at a significantly lower cost. Not saying a better play than Robertson, but he’s been the most consistent of the Auburn receivers, averaging over five targets a game on the year. Every other Auburn receiver would be risky. Arkansas is allowing just 2.6 FPPG to opposing TE1s this season, so probably not looking to target John Samuel Shenker who sits fourth on the team with 29 targets. Shedrick Jackson is third with 31.
Arkansas:
The big three is really all we are after here in KJ Jefferson, Trelon Smith and Treylon Burks, with nobody really jumping out as an exceptional play. Middle of the road pass defense for Auburn that will likely force Jefferson to beat them with his arm on Saturday. Allow 22.7 FPPG to opposing QBs this season, but nobody has topped 28 fantasy points scored against the Tigers. Arkansas ranks 11th in the SEC in passing offense and have attempted the fewest passes in the conference. Auburn can be dicey on the back end, ranking ninth in the SEC against the pass and are 101st in Pass Play Success Rate. So much for the health questions about Jefferson too, as he had a season-high 20 rushing attempts vs. Ole Miss. Burks led the way last week with 7-136-1 but we saw Jefferson spread the ball around more times than he had all season, hitting eight different receivers. Plan of attack moving forward? Tyson Morris and De’Vion Warren started against Ole Miss but we’re mostly ineffective and have been for much of the season. In comes Warren Thompson and Trey Knox who saw season highs with a combined nine receptions on 14 targets with both finding the end-zone. Minimal separation in their projections, but have to figure they’re the two starters moving forward now alongside Burks with how they performed. Little to no upside with Smith in the running game with both Jefferson and Raheim Sanders snatching carries away. The true freshman had a season-high 17 carries for 139 last week against Ole Miss despite two fumbles. Auburn is third on the SEC and ninth nationally, allowing just 104 yards per game on the ground, giving up just 13.5 FPPG to opposing RBs.
Oklahoma State @ Texas
Point-Spread: Tex -3.5
O/U Total: 60.5
Weather: 68 degrees / 0% rain / 13 mph winds
Oklahoma State:
Big 3 are in play for us with Spencer Sanders, Jaylen Warren and receiver Tay Martin, all projected over 20 fantasy points this week. Nothing in particular stands out regarding Sanders this week, aside from the 27.5 implied total and game script with OSU as a 5-point dog. Averaging 11.5 carries a game which is right around his 2020 numbers. The Texas defense have given up two 30+ point performances from opposing QBs in the last three games, and are allowing a 70.8 completion percentage on the season. Texas ranks 112th in Point Per Opportunity and 106th in Pass Play Success Rate so this is a defense Sanders can take advantage of. The Longhorns were gashed against Oklahoma, allowing over eight yards a carry with the Oklahoma racking up over 300 rushing yards. Jaylen Warren should eat on Saturday, averaging 32 carries a game since taking over as the starter with at least one touchdown in four of the five games played this season. Texas is 116th in Rush Play Success Rate and giving up over five yards a carry on the year. For all the times we pay attention to systems in CFF, we ignored the outside receiver position for Oklahoma State which is typically the primary target in Mike Gundy’s offensive scheme. Holds true again in 2021 with Tay Martin who has topped 100 yards in every game this season he’s been healthy in. The interesting dilemma here is Rashod Owens who starts opposite Martin at just $3,200 and projects at 10 fantasy points this week. Seen five targets in each of the last two games. Still love the talent of Brennan Presley, but he sits third on the priority list of options in the passing game, averaging just 4.8 targets.
Texas:
Love Bijan Robinson, obviously, but based on the projections where him and Jaylen Warren are separated by less than one fantasy point, per capita, it would be Warren that is the better play of the two based on pricing. Oklahoma State sits 12th in the country, allowing just 2.76 yards per carry and have allowed over 20 fantasy points to an RB1 just once this season (16.7 FPPG). The Cowboys don’t have any real glaring weaknesses on defense as they’ve also given up just three passing touchdowns all year with one of the better secondaries in the Big 12. Tough challenge for Casey Thompson with Oklahoma State allowing just 15.2 FPPG to opposing QB1s – 10th best mark in the country – and not a single quarterback scoring more than 18 fantasy points against them this season. Doesn’t help that Thompson will be down a receiver as well with Jordan Whittington expected to miss the remainder of the season. We know Oklahoma State will be keying in on Xavier Worthy after his 261-yard performance a week ago so someone else will need to step up. We saw the Week 1 2020 Joshua Moore finally emerge from the ashes last week with 4-70-2 on a season-high seven targets. He sits currently at a 14.4-point projection at just $4,800. Marcus Washington looks to be the next man up in the slot, but has just six targets all year. Don’t be surprised if we see more of tight end Jared Wiley or even Bijan rep in the slot to make up for some of the production we lose from Whittington.
UCF @ Cincinnati
Point-Spread: Cin -21.5
O/U Total: 56.5
Weather: 59 degrees / 2% rain / 13 mph winds
UCF:
Let’s start with the injuries that have nearly ruined UCF’s season. Neither Isaiah Bowser or Jaylon Robinson warmed up last week against East Carolina, and doesn’t sound as though they’ll return this week either. Robinson’s status per SI is that he’s “not likely to return soon.” At quarterback, go ahead and X out Mikey Keene from the pool of options going against a Cincinnati secondary that’s allowing just 177.8 yards per game through the air and 11.6 FPPG to opposing QBs on the season. Projected at just 13 fantasy points this week as he’s struggled to throw the football since taking over the QB1 job and offers nothing on the ground. With UCF a three-touchdown dog, I think we might be able to look at the receivers, though, as they’re inexpensive and we saw a centralized target tree against East Carolina last week with Ryan O’Keefe, Amari Johnson and Brandon Johnson accounting for 25 of the 33 targets. O’Keefe led the way with 10 receptions on 13 targets with the two Johnson’s were tied with six a piece. Nate Craig-Myers actually out-snapped Johnson (Amari) in the slot by a considerable margin but had just a single target. Johnson (Brandon) is our highest-projected UCF receiver – only by 0.3 points – over O’Keefe and we see a discount between the two on DK. The Bearcats have one of the best overall defenses in the country, but finding success against them is far easier on the ground than it is through the air. And Johnny Richardson has been effective since stepping in as the starter with two 100-yard rushing performances. UCF’s offensive line has done the job this year, ranking second in the country in Line Yards and fourth in Rush Play Success Rate. At a projected 16 fantasy points, do we need to give Richardson a stronger look at just $3,900? No running back has accumulated more than 15 fantasy points all season against this Cincy defense.
Cincinnati:
When compiling my initial lineups this week, I think 90 percent of them had Desmond Ridder in the QB slot because I can’t get away from his $8,100 pricing on DK with the 39.25 implied total. The Knights are bland across the board defensively – don’t stop the run or pass with any amount of consistent success – and giving up 25 FPPG to opposing QBs on the year. UCF hasn’t allowed a running back to top 20 fantasy points yet this season, and are allowing just 3.77 YPC on the year but those numbers are heavily swayed by the early season success against Boise State and Bethune Cookman. Allowing 4.5 YPC over the last three games. Should be another good day running the football for RB1 Jerome Ford who posted a season high 148 yards and two touchdowns against Temple last week – projected at 20 fantasy points for Saturday. Cincinnati is 29th in Rush Play Success Rate on the year. We’ve seen the last three weeks what a healthy Alec Pierce is capable of with 17 catches, two touchdowns and eight targets in each game. How Tyler Scott has a higher price-point on DK I have no idea and wouldn’t touch him at that pricing with just 15 total targets on the season. Ownership will be next to nothing for him. I’d rather take a shot with Michael Young Jr. who sees the field more and out-targets him practically every week.
Michigan State @ Indiana
Point-Spread: MSU -4.5
O/U Total: 48.5
Weather: 56 degrees / 1% rain / 11 mph winds
Michigan State:
Michigan State is one of those teams that are straightforward to write about with most of the 90 percent of their offensive production coming from just five players. 26.25 implied total doesn’t stick out as a team we want to target heavily, but that doesn’t matter as much when the production is so consolidated. Beating this Indiana defense typically comes via the pass as the Hoosiers are 66th in Pass Play Success Rate, ninth in the Big Ten in overall pass defense, and allow 27 FPPG to opposing QBs. Payton Thorne is our highest-projected Spartan this week at 22.5 fantasy points as a result. Kenneth Walker is always in the mix of potential options, but if there is a strength to the Hoosiers defense, it is stopping the run, allowing just 128.6 yards per game on the ground. No running back this season has topped 20 fantasy points yet vs. Indiana. Walker is a volume-eater, though, averaging 21.5 carries per game with is eighth in the country so you know he’ll see the rock. Production has gone back and forth with Jayden Reed and Jalen Nailor, so maybe this is Reed’s week to thrive after Nailor put up a season-high 5-221-3 on nine targets against Rutgers? The talented duo makes up 55 percent of the team’s target share, with Nailor now jumping well ahead at 48 targets on the year compared to 33 for Reed. Y/Rec and aDot’s between the two are nearly identical. Tre Mosley has also been consistent as the third option with at least 57 receiving yards in five of the six games played, and sits a distant third at 23 targets on the year. Running back turned tight end Connor Heyward isn’t in the mix of potential DFS options, but does have at least three receptions in four of the six games he’s played.
Indiana:
More coaches being coy about injuries with Tom Allen stating (with a smile) that we’ll find out at kickoff if it’ll be Michael Penix Jr. or Jack Tuttle this week at quarterback. Penix suffered a shoulder injury to his throwing shoulder against Penn State and is listed as questionable. This is a stay away spot in my opinion as I don’t have a ton of confidence in the Indiana offense as a whole, but I can see a potential argument for Tuttle here at just $4,900 on DK. Game scripts have contributed to this with MSU gaining big leads in the early portion of the season, but the Spartans are allowing over 28 FPPG to opposing QBs this season and are 74th in Pass Play Success Rate. Penix is projected at just 19 fantasy points this week, and if Tuttle reached that at his salary, I think we’d take that.
Don’t expect much traction on the ground for the Indiana run game as teams have failed to rush successfully all year against MSU where the Spartans are allowing just 10.8 FPPG to opposing RB1s. No team has averaged more than four yards a carry in a single game vs. MSU all year. Not a terrible projection for Stephen Carr this week at 16.6 fantasy points, and he’s seeing all the carries in the Indiana backfield, accounting for 61 percent of the team’s rushing volume. The Hoosiers are just 105th in Line Yards and 96th in Rush Play Success Rate so this isn’t exactly a favorable matchup. Just two options for the Indiana passing game with Ty Fryfogle and Peyton Hendershot who had 19 of the 29 targets against Penn State in Week 5. Both are seeing an uptick in pass directed their way now that DJ Matthews is out for the season. The two combined for 23 targets in Week 4 vs. Western Kentucky. I actually like Hendershot a bit this week at 14 projected fantasy points, as MSU has struggled to defend opposing TEs this season, allowing 10.8 FPPG.
Nebraska @ Minnesota
Point-Spread: Neb -4.5
O/U Total: 48.5
Weather: 54 degrees / 0% rain / 10 mph winds
Nebraska:
Projections like Adrian Martinez again this week at 26.7 fantasy points with an attainable salary of $7,900 on DK. Mistakes in crucial moments aside, Martinez is having a career season, completing 66 percent of his passes and averaging 9.9 yards per attempt which is eighth in the country. The Gophers have done reasonably well against opposing QBs this season, allowing 21.2 fantasy points, but have really only played one quarterback worth a damn this year in CJ Stroud who hit 39 points against them in Week 1. Implied total isn’t great at 26 points, but tough to ignore a quarterback who has had a hand in 19 of the 21 offensive touchdowns the team has scored this season. I’ll probably be out this week on Rahmir Johnson facing a Minnesota run defense that is ranked fifth in the country, allowing just 77 rushing yards per game and giving up only 10.4 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Martinez should be fine in that respect with his scrambling ability, but the Cornhuskers are just 59th in Rush Play Success rate so this isn’t a matchup favoring the Nebraska ground game. Credit to Johnson, though, for emerging as the clear-cut RB1 over the last three games, averaging nearly 19 touches per contest in that span, and caught six passes for 106 yards and a score vs. Michigan last weekend. Not devoted to rostering any of the Nebraska receivers with the target distribution spread evenly amongst Samori Toure, Oliver Martin, Omar Manning and Levi Falck with every now healthy. Toure sits comfortably at the top with 22 percent of the target share for the season, but nobody has had more than six targets in the last two games now that Martin is back from injury.
Minnesota:
It’s all about the Minnesota backfield here, trying to uncover how PJ Fleck intends to distribute the carries with Trey Potts out for the season. I’ll sound like a broken record here but the Minnesota 247 beat reporter is one of the most trustworthy in the country when it comes to his information and gut-feels. Based on his extensive viewing of the team, he’s suggesting 20+ touches for Mar’Keise “Bucky” Irving for the next few games to see what the team has in the freshman. Irving has just 25 carries this season, but already ranks second in yards after contact (3.68) behind Mo Ibrahim and has forced 10 missed tackles per PFF. Do I suspect 24 carries a game like we saw from Potts? No. But could Irving easily pay off his salary at $3,900 with 20 touches? Absolutely. Nebraska has been good at stopping the run this season, allowing just 13 FPPG to opposing RB1s, but the Gophers are experienced (and big) along the offensive line that they should find some success. I assume the plan will be to mix in Ky Thomas, Cam Wiley and Bryce Williams in some to take the load off the FR, with Thomas looking like the RB2 between that trio. 10-15 touches sounds like the expectation according to the beat writer, and Thomas is min-priced. I wouldn’t get cute there, particularly with Cole Kramer being featured some in the rushing attack two weeks ago, but Irving is definitely under consideration.
Tanner Morgan is not an option as he’s thrown the ball more than 19 times just once in a game this season, but the expectation sounds as though he’ll need to provide more in the passing game with Potts out (I do like the over at 11 fantasy points on Prize Picks). The WRs will be as healthy as they’ve been all year following the bye week with Chris Autman-Bell at 100 percent. Dylan Wright has also practiced all week and will start, along with Daniel Jackson. CAB matched his season high with six targets against Purdue in Week 5, and the Minnesota passing game had three plays of 25+ yards or more so we saw some signs of life.
Kentucky @ Georgia
Point-Spread: UGA -21.5
O/U Total: 44.5
Weather: 70 degrees / 3% rain / 16 mph winds
Kentucky:
Complete fade for me here with the implied total of just over 10 points for the Wildcats. Georgia is allowing just 6.1 FPPG to opposing RBs and our projections have Chris Rodriguez at just 11 fantasy points. All the way out on Will Levis this week against the UGA defense that is allowing just 6.5 FPPG to opposing QBs this season. I’m not sure he reaches the 140 yards we have projected for him on Saturday. Luke Doty scored the season-high for quarterbacks this season against the Dawgs with just 13.5 fantasy points. Wan’Dale Robinson is our highest projected player for UK this week at exactly 15 fantasy points, but I would assume the Georgia coaching staff is scheming up ways in which to bracket the WR1 for the entire game with no other receiver on the roster even capable of threatening the defense now that Joshua Ali remains out with injury. Isaiah Epps stepped into the WR2 role last week against LSU and had all of two targets, though Kentucky only needed to throw the ball 16 times in the rout of LSU.
Georgia:
J.T. Daniels continues to more in practice each week, but sounds as though we will see Stetson Bennett again at quarterback on Saturday. No need to play him with how the Georgia defense has been performing, as Bennett’s had just 21 passing attempts in the last two weeks. Zamir White continues to be a high-floor/low-upside play with four rushing TDs in the last two games, and has seen his attempts jump with 34 in the last two weeks. Kentucky has allowed a couple of big performances this season with 30 points from Tyler Badie and Tyrion Davis-Price hitting 26 fantasy points last weekend. Sounds like Jermaine Burton is still banged up but he’ll make the trip with a good shot at playing. Ladd McConkey has emerged as the go-to receiver in his absence, leading the team in targets the past two games. I’m sure Brock Bowers will pop off for two touchdowns again now that I’ll fade him this week. Projected at 11.7 fantasy points this week – a more viable option at $6,900 on FD than his astronomical price tag on DK. The Wildcats are allowing just 5.8 FPPG to opposing tight ends.
Miami @ North Carolina
Point-Spread: UNC -7.5
O/U Total: 63
Weather: 79 degrees / 49% rain / 11 mph winds
Miami:
Projections really don’t like Tyler Van Dyke this week at just 17 fantasy points despite the 27.5 implied total and facing a North Carolina defense that is allowing 31.4 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season. Because of how poor UNC is defending the pass – 77th in Pass Play Success Rate – I think TVD is still an option, but I think we need more evidence of how he’ll perform week to week because he did look shaky in his last outing vs. Virginia. Looks like Cam’Ron Harris sits higher on the projections this week, but the emergence of Jaylan Knighton tempers our expectations as it was Knighton who out-carried Harris 15-14 against UVA. Knighton did appear to be the preferred option of the two as well, and was very close to breaking a couple of big runs against the Hoos. Based on pricing, I prefer Knighton here of the two players, despite Harris topping 100 yards in each of the last two games. Don’t mind a fade of the Miami backfield either though as this is a bad matchup where the Heels are far better at stopping the run, ranking 46th in Rush Play Success Rate and allowing just 11.4 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Charleston Rambo and Mike Harley are the only Miami pass-catchers of interest here, with a combined 11 receptions on 16 targets vs. UVA two weeks ago. No other Miami pass-catcher had more than two targets. Rambo is the higher projected of the two players and at a cheaper cost so he would be the play here as Miami’s most consistent playmaker on the outside. His athleticism should give him the edge against UNC’s man-to-man coverage. Had at least eight targets in every game this season aside from the blowout over Central Connecticut State.
North Carolina:
Bounce back spot for Sam Howell this week against one of the lesser pass defenses in the ACC with the Hurricanes giving up 250 yards per game through the air and 90th in Pass Play Success Rate. Howell has been rolling from a fantasy production standpoint, averaging 38 FPPG over the last five games, much of which to do with his production on the ground where he’s averaging around 13 carries a game. Miami is surrendering 28.1 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season and we have him projected at over 29 points this week. Miami isn’t very good at stopping the run either this season with their poor tackling habits, but I’d be wary about rostering Ty Chandler this week. We saw a healthy DJ Jones last week who posted double-digit rushing attempts and saw 32 snaps against Florida State. I still remember back to that Week 1 game against Virginia Tech where Jones saw extended time with Chandler struggling and have a gut feeling the staff prefers Jones as a pure runner. I don’t believe there should be that much disparity between the two players when it comes to the projections. In the passing game, its Josh Downs and everyone else as the sophomore receiver accounted for half of the targets last week against FSU with no other receiver nabbing more than one catch. Emery Simmons and Antoine Green continue to see the bulk of the snaps, but little to show for it in terms of production.
BYU @ Baylor
Point-Spread: Bay -5
O/U Total: 51.5
Weather: 71 degrees / 0% rain / 11 mph winds
BYU:
I’ll be fading most of BYU after the disaster that was last weekend against Boise State, albeit in the rain for part of the contest. Bad matchup for Jaren Hall against a tremendous Baylor pass defense that is giving up just 175 yards per game through the air and allowing only 16.3 FPPG to opposing QBs. No team has thrown for more than a single touchdown against the Bears all season. BYU trailed against Boise from the jump, so they were forced to throw, but also didn’t see Hall record a single carry in the game – might be due to the injury he suffered a few weeks back? Baylor can be vulnerable on the ground, allowing consecutive 200-yard rushing games to both Iowa State and Oklahoma State and are 72nd in Rush Play Success Rate. The Bears are also allowing over 18 fantasy points per game to opposing RB1s this season, but those numbers are heavily swayed by Breece Hall and Jaylen Warren’s success. Outside of those two, the next highest point total was just 10 by the Texas State running back. With so many RB options in this slate in the $6k range, I don’t see the reasoning for spending up to Tyler Allgeier at $7.7k. Maybe there is some value in Puka Nacua at an 11-point projection at $4k but the target share has been pretty sparse between him, Gunner Romney and Neil Pau’u of late that I’m not sure anyone is worth rostering against this Baylor secondary. Romney continues to project the highest of the three, and is the big play threat with an aDOT of 15.9 on the year.
Baylor:
I’m struggling personally with the Baylor side at the moment. The total is up half a point from earlier in the week, but only seeing the 29 implied score is giving me pause. Gerry Bohanon is going to be insanely popular this week at $6,300, coming off a 39-point performance against a decent West Virginia defense. Projection of 25 fantasy points would be worth it to roster Bohanon at that cost, but this BYU defense has been successful at defending the pass, limiting opposing QBs to just 16.2 FPPG in 2021. Expect to see high ownership here. Tyquan Thornton got the headlines last week with his 187-yard, two-TD performance, but Drew Estrada has come along the last two games with consecutive 90-yard efforts on 15 total targets. $3,100 is really cheap for him, as well as the $5,200 price tag with Thornton who accounts for 31 percent of the team target share. RJ Sneed looks to have been relegated to the WR3 with just four targets in the last two weeks. Watching that BYU/Boise game last week, its tough to imagine Baylor not finding success against this Cougars defense on the ground. Boise has one of the worst offensive lines in the country and completely dominated that game from start to finish. Baylor has a Top 5 offensive line and are 17th in Rush Success Rate. The issue is the division of volume between Abram Smith and Trestan Ebner with a 55/45 split in rushing attempts between the two in the last three games. Smith sits substantially higher in the projections at 16 fantasy points, but the ceilings are capped with two rushers seeing nearly equal carries, along with Bohanon jumping into the mix with his legs.
Pittsburgh @ Virginia Tech
Point-Spread: Pitt -5
O/U Total: 56
Weather: 59 degrees / 13% rain / 14 mph winds
Pittsburgh:
Initial lineups for me had the Pitt stack of the passing game with Kenny Pickett, Jordan Addison and tight end Lucas Krull who’ve been the primary components for the Panthers offensive explosions in 2021. Projections have Pickett sitting right near Sam Howell at $800 cheaper, but I’ll admit to having hesitations this week, taking on a Virginia Tech defense that is allowing just 18.6 FPPG to opposing QB1s this year and are 14th in Pass Play Success Rate. Because of the Pitt scheme under OC Mark Whipple, we’re going to see Pickett sling the pill as he’s averaging 33.6 att/p so if we’re concerned with how the QB will perform against this defense and still know the volume will be there, maybe we play some of the pass-catchers without risking a Pickett drop-off? Addison has found the end-zone in every game this season with a team-high 41 targets, but surprisingly doesn’t have a performance in which he’s topped six receptions. Has had a long of 47-yards or more in each of the last three games so we’ll need him to break off another most likely in order to hit his pricing. Taysir Mack has scored a touchdown in each of the last two games, averaging just five targets per contest. Might be a strong pivot play to Addison at a significantly lower price-point. Projected at 12.6 fantasy points this week. Krull is tough here because he’s cheap at $3,800 and does have a receiving touchdown in four of the five games played. Virginia Tech has completely shut down opposing tight ends this season, allowing just 1.8 FPPG. The Hokies can be had on the ground, but I don’t think Pitt is the team do take advantage as they’re 74th in Line Yards, 97th in Stuff Rate and 38th in Rush Play Success Rate. This is a pass-first scheme, and we have two running backs in Izzy Abanikanda and Vincent Davis splitting reps in the backfield.
Virginia Tech:
Decent projection on Braxton Burmeister at 22.7 fantasy points for a $6,300 salary, but he was banged up against Notre Dame, and while expected to play this week, he’s not 100 percent. Injuries have been an issue in the past and I’m not ranking a goose egg for what is already an average play at best. His best attributes are with his legs, and you have to figure the staff will attempt to keep out of harm’s way if ailing. Zero interest in the Virginia Tech running game with a split backfield between Raheem Blackshear, Jalen Holston and others. Blackshear’s pass-catching ability keeps him in the mix, but averaging just 3.6 targets a game. Virginia Tech’s offensive line has been atrocious this year, ranking 118th in Line Yards and 128th in Stuff Rate, taking on a Pitt defense that’s ninth in Rush Play Success Rate. I think if looking to roster one Va Tech player, Tre Turner is the target, projected at over 16 fantasy points this week. Six receptions in each of the last two games on 19 total targets. Seeing Tayvion Robinson $1000 more makes very little sense, though he is averaging over five targets per game on the year. Looking at beat writer predictions, all three on the 247 Virginia Tech site had the Hokies losing and not scoring more than 24 points – interesting to see where the confidence is at with this team heading into Saturday.
Purdue @ Iowa
Point-Spread: Iowa -11.5
O/U Total: 43
Weather: 60 degrees / 0% rain / 16 mph winds
Purdue:
David Bell has had quite a bit of success against the Hawkeyes in his career with 13 receptions in both matchups in 2019 and 2020. Think that’s on the mind of the Iowa secondary this week? Game script does favor Bell here in a game where Purdue will be trailing – unless they are still hungover from the Penn State win – and we saw a similar situation against the Nittany Lions where Bell did have 17 targets. Purdue’s offense will be very similar in that they can’t run the ball worth a damn and don’t have a ton of options at WR outside of Bell. So maybe he pays off his $7k salary in this PPR format based on sheer volume he should see. Remaining viable options look to be Milton Wright who is averaging nine targets over the last three games, and tight end Payne Durham who is expected back this week. Tight ends have found some success against the Hawkeyes this year with both Trey McBride and Chigoziem Okonkwo topping 11 fantasy points. Out on quarterback Aidan O’Connell who threw for one touchdown on 51 attempts vs. Minnesota two weeks ago. Iowa is allowing just 14.3 FPPG to opposing QBs. Purdue’s rushing attack isn’t even worth mentioning at this point, and I’m cloudy on the status of both King Doerue and Zander Horvath. Iowa is 10th in the country in rush defense.
Iowa:
The list of quarterbacks that Purdue has faced this season are not impressive, so the numbers are skewed a tad, but the Boilermakers sit No. 1 overall in the Big Ten in pass defense and allowing just over 12 FPPG to opposing QB1s. I doubt we see another performance like we did a few weeks ago against Maryland from Spencer Petras who is averaging less att/g (28.0) than he did a year ago. To my surprise, the Purdue rush defense has been good as well, allowing just 3.6 YPC and just two rushing TDs in the last four games. Boilermakers are 25th in Rush Play Success Rate. Projections have Tyler Goodson over 100 yards still despite the matchup, and his volume is the most appealing aspect of his fantasy value, averaging 23 touches per game. Salary is in the range where we must consider him. Cheating here in the essence of time – zero interest in any Iowa pass-catchers. Tight end Sam LaPorta is the only one with a double-digit projection this week, and had a season-low three targets vs. Penn State. Purdue is allowing just 2.9 FPPG to opposing TE1s.