Clemson vs. Wake Forest
Point-Spread: Clem -20
O/U Total: 62
Implied Score: Clem 41 – WF 21
Weather: 68 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Clemson:
Top Play(s) – QB Cade Klubnik ($9,000) Year 2 magic from Klubnik under offensive coordinator Garrett Riley who did the same thing at TCU with Max Duggan, turning his QB into a fantasy star. Wake Forest is allowing 28 FPPG to opposing QBs with three players scoring over 27 fantasy points in their respective matchups. That includes a QB from Louisiana-Lafayette.
Fade – WR Bryant Wesco ($4,700) Tempting to start Wesco this week as he has six receptions over the last two games, with over 90% snaps played vs. Florida State last Saturday. With that said, Adam Randall is back in the lineup, and we’ll see how much allegiance Dabo Swinney has towards his veterans. Maybe some, maybe none. But in games in which both Wesco and Randall were active, Randall played more.
Bargain Bin – TE Jake Briningstool ($4,000) Second on the team in targets (22), receptions (17), touchdowns (3) and first in routes run. Strong matchup as Wake Forest allowed multiple tight ends to score over 17 fantasy points against them this season.
Pivot Play – WR Antonio Williams ($5,000) Curious to see the PFF box scores after Saturday as Williams has played exclusively in the slot with Tyler Brown out of the lineup. Brown returns Saturday. Will Williams stay inside or shift back to the boundary? Reason being, boundary receivers have crushed Wake Forest this season. Lance Legendre, Malachi Fields, Tre Harris and Trell Harris – all outside receivers – scored over 22 fantasy points vs. the Demon Deacons. We want at least one Clemson pass-catcher in our lineups.
Best of the Rest – RB Phil Mafah ($6,500) Frustrating season as a Mafah owner with just two rushing touchdowns despite dominating the backfield market share. Still, 25 totes for 154 yards against Florida State last Saturday is hopefully a sign of things to come. Wake Forest is mildly better against the run, ranking 114th in success rate.
Injury Notes – n/a
Wake Forest:
Top Play(s) – RB Demond Claiborne ($5,700) Wake Forest’s best offense is when they drop back and hand the ball off to their RB1 who is on pace for the first 1,000-yard rushing season by a Wake running back since Kenneth Walker. This could get ugly Saturday, but Clemson has been very bad against the run, allowing 25 FPPG to opposing backfields and 88th in rush D success rate. Running backs are scoring over 30% more than their seasonal average when facing the Tigers.
Fade – QB Hank Bachmeier ($5,900) Not a chance. Just one QB this season has scored more than 18 fantasy points against Clemson, and that was Carson Beck in the opener who was limited to just 21 fantasy points.
Bargain Bin – WR Horatio Fields ($3,900) Donavon Greene appears unlikely again this week, so Fields retains his role as Wake’s No. 1 option on the outside. Played over 90% of the offensive snaps last week against NC State and has been targeted eight times in each of the last two games.
Pivot Play – WR Taylor Morin ($4,800) Team leader in targets (34), receptions (26) and second in routes run behind Fields. Morin had at least 50 receiving yards in every contest prior to last week against NC State. Clemson has allowed five receivers this season to score more than 13 fantasy points.
Best of the Rest – WR Micah Mays Jr. ($3,000) With Greene on the shelf, Mays has stepped into the starting lineup opposite Fields on the outside. Played a season-high 57% of snaps vs. the Wolfpack with seven targets. Should be another pass-happy script for Wake Forest if they’re down double-digits.
Injury Notes – WR Donavon Greene ($4,200) Injury bug has gotten to Greene yet again as he’s not on the Week 7 depth chart.
Georgia Tech vs. North Carolina
Point-Spread: GT -4
O/U Total: 60
Implied Score: GT 32 – UNC 28
Weather: 68 degrees / 0% rain / 4 mph winds
Georgia Tech:
Top Play(s) – QB Haynes King ($8,100) We’re basically interested in any quarterback that faces UNC from now on, as the Heels are giving up 27.7 FPPG to opposing QBs. Dual threats like King have obliterated North Carolina with Eli Holstein and Alonza Barnett combining for over 160 yards on the ground with three touchdowns.
Fade – n/a. All Georgia Tech players are priced appropriately.
Bargain Bin – WR Chase Lane ($3,400) Lane is a distant, distant third behind the top two wideouts in targets, but is second in routes run, and played a season-high 88% of snaps last week vs. Duke…albeit resulting in just one target. Georgia Tech is not rotating much at all anymore at receiver beyond the top three.
Pivot Play – RB Jamal Haynes ($6,000) UNC is grading out fairly well at defending the run, ranked 31st in success rate, but allow so many scoring opportunities to opponents that RB1s can hit value without having a big rushing performance. High floor, high upside play for Haynes as UNC has allowed multiple running backs to score over 30 fantasy points already.
Best of the Rest – WRs Malik Rutherford ($5,300) or WR Eric Singleton ($5,500) Same story each week with these two with nearly 50% of the target share and receiving touchdowns. Twice already UNC has allowed multiple receivers on the same team to score double-digit fantasy points in the same game, so stacking the two together could be a GPP option in a lineup that has a heavy amount of GT and UNC options.
Injury Notes – RB Trey Cooley ($4,300) Out again per HC Brent Key.
North Carolina:
Top Play(s) – RB Omarion Hampton ($8,700) With college basketball around the corner and the football season headed in a downward spiral, you’d be hard pressed to find any coverage out there for this week’s matchup with Georgia Tech. No other running back is challenging Hampton for carries still, though this might be a week to limit exposure of the UNC RB1. Georgia Tech has yet to allow an opposing running back to score over 19 fantasy points all year and are 9th nationally in EPA per run play defensively.
Fade – WR Gavin Blackwell ($3,800) Not sure if injury related or not, but Blackwell did not play a single snap last week vs. Pittsburgh. Does not have an injury tag currently so we’ll assume he’s simply out of the rotation.
Bargain Bin – TE Bryson Nesbit ($3,500) The junior tight end is first on the team in targets (38), receptions (21) and touchdowns (3). Georgia Tech has allowed multiple tight ends this season to score over 16 fantasy points, struggling against another TE-hybrid like player against Syracuse’s Oronde Gadsden who scored 27 fantasy points against the Yellow Jackets.
Pivot Play – WR Nate McCollum ($4,800) Revenge game storyline with McCollum facing his former team. 10 receptions on 13 targets vs. Pittsburgh last week, almost tripling his output from the first four games of the season.
Best of the Rest – QB Jacolby Criswell ($7,600) Criswell has been adequate since taking over as the starter with 250 more yards in each of the last three games, throwing six touchdowns. Georgia Tech’s secondary is below average, ranking 107th in success rate and 124th in EPA. WR J.J. Jones ($5,000) is leading the Heels in routes run this season and played over 90% of the offensive snaps in each of the last two games with a combined 200 receiving yards in the past three weeks.
Injury Notes – n/a
Washington vs. Iowa
Point-Spread: Iowa -3
O/U Total: 42
Implied Score: Iowa 22.5 – UW 19.5
Weather: 67 degrees / 6% rain / 8 mph winds
Washington:
Top Play(s) – WR Denzel Boston ($7,700) or WR Giles Jackson ($5,700) We’re probably not stacking the two together given the low game totals, but wide receivers are finding a great deal of success against this Iowa secondary, due in large part to team’s inability to run the ball vs. the Hawkeyes. Five different receivers have already scored at least 20 fantasy points against Iowa in their respective matchups. Slot receivers (Jackson) and boundary receivers (Boston) have all had equal success.
Fade – RB Jonah Coleman ($6,200) Don’t play running backs against Iowa this season. The Hawkeyes are giving up just 13.1 FPPG to opposing backfields and have not allowed a single running back to score more than nine fantasy points all year.
Bargain Bin – TE Keleki Latu ($3,100) Latu was targeted a season-high eight times last week as Michigan cannot defend the middle of the field. Not so much the case with Iowa, allowing just one opposing tight end to score more than 10 fantasy points this season, but Latu is cheap and effective.
Pivot Play – QB Will Rogers ($6,300) Teams have definitely found more success passing the ball on Iowa than running, but just one QB has scored more than 19 fantasy points this season against the Hawkeyes and that was Will Howard who can run the football as he had a rushing touchdown last week. Will Rogers cannot.
Best of the Rest – n/a. Jeremiah Hunter would be the final option, but he seems to be giving away playing time lately to backup Rashid Williams, as the former Cal transfer has been largely ineffective. Boston and Jackson are the only playable options on the U-Dub side.
Injury Notes – n/a
Iowa:
We wondered last week if RB Kaleb Johnson ($8,500) could run on Ohio State and the answer was somewhere in the middle. Held in check for much of the game, until Johnson found a garbage time touchdown to finish with 17 fantasy points. Washington is good, not great at defending the run, ranking 44th in rush D success rate, and allowed a combined 38 fantasy points the last two games to Donovan Edwards and Kyle Monangai. TE Luke Lachey ($3,300) had his best performance since Week 1 with a perfect five receptions on five targets. Washington gave up 15 fantasy points last week to Colston Loveland.
South Carolina vs. Alabama
Point-Spread: Bama -21
O/U Total: 50
Implied Score: A&M 35.5 – SC 14.5
Weather: 74 degrees / 0% rain / 2 mph winds
South Carolina:
Top Play(s) – QB LaNorris Sellers ($5,400) Meltdowns happening among the South Carolina fan base pleading for the firing of another offensive coordinator as the Gamecocks are 14th in the SEC in scoring and total offense. We won’t have any South Carolina exposure but will give Sellers the nod here because of his rushing ability. Alabama struggled last week with Diego Pavia and Vandy’s run game, while also giving up 100+ on the ground to Byrum Brown earlier in the year.
Fade – Everyone else. Rocket Sanders isn’t 100%. Tight ends are low floor, low ceiling. And South Carolina doesn’t have a difference maker at wide receiver outside of ‘maybe’ freshman WR Mazeo Bennett ($3,800) who has 112 receiving yards in the last two weeks. WR Nyck Harbor ($3,100) has seen his playing time increase over the last three weeks as well, and has a season-high five targets vs. Ole Miss. Pressure is on for Shane Beamer and Dowell Loggains to get the best athletes on the field
Injury Notes – WR Jared Brown is OUT.
Alabama:
Top Play(s) – QB Jalen Milroe ($10,800) Tough to list anyone here but our No. 1 projected player for the entire weekend in college fantasy. Bama can’t run the football outside of Milroe on the ground and the defense is vulnerable after last week’s loss to Vandy. Does South Carolina have enough firepower offensively to force Milroe to stay in the game for four quarters and be forced to score is the question. For all the issues offensively, South Carolina as a very strong secondary, ranked 10th in success rate and allowing just 11 FPPG to quarterbacks.
Fade – RB Justice Haynes ($6,200) I’ll take the cheaper of the two options in Jam Miller if wanting to roster an Alabama running back. Which might not be the best idea given Bama’s struggles on the ground, ranked 98th in rush success rate. Miller is the team’s goal-line option between the two, so he gets the nod.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Not playing anyone below $4.8k.
Pivot Play – WR Germie Bernard ($4,800) Multiple Bama WRs are likely out due to injury, and the target share is already top-heavy as Bernard and Ryan Williams combine for over 45% of the team’s targets. If Jalen Milroe is dropping back to pass Saturday, it’s likely going in just one of two directions as the Tide don’t incorporate the tight ends or running backs much in the passing game.
Best of the Rest – WR Ryan Williams ($7,400) What can’t this freshman do? 55 fantasy points over the last two weeks against SEC opponents with both receiving and rushing touchdowns. Williams has over 50% of the team’s receiving touchdowns. And like Bernard, his stock only increased with Kendrick Law and Kobe Prentice out of the lineup as depth is lacking beyond the top two.
Injury Notes – WR Kendrick Law and Kobe Prentice are both officially questionable. Prentice left the Vanderbilt game due to injury while Law missed the contest entirely.
Wisconsin vs. Rutgers
Point-Spread: Rut -2.5
O/U Total: 43.5
Implied Score: Rut 23 – UW 20.5
Weather: 69 degrees / 0% rain / 10 mph winds
Washington:
Top Play(s) – RB Tawee Walker ($5,300) Tawee Walker was unleashed finally last week with Chez Mellusi no longer on the team, with three rushing touchdowns on 19 carries in the win over Purdue. Rutgers is surprisingly BAD against the run this season, ranked 118th in rush D success rate with three different running backs scoring at least 16 fantasy points against the Scarlet Knights.
Fade – QB Braedyn Locke ($5,200) Last week’s three passing touchdowns and over 300 yards passing was the product of playing a team in Purdue that should be relegated from the Big Ten at this point. Rutgers is allowing just 11.6 FPPG against opposing quarterbacks and Locke is a non-runner with a low game total. Not interested.
Bargain Bin – WR Vinny Anthony ($3,300) Two touchdowns in as many weeks for Anthony who is now averaging over 22 yards per catch for the season. Led all Badger receivers in routes run last week vs. Purdue.
Pivot Play – WR Will Pauling ($4,200) over WR Trech Kekahuna ($3,900) Kekehuna’s 100-yard performance last week was the product of Pauling missing a large chunk of the contest after his ankle was rolled up on. It’s been a few down weeks for the starting slot receiver, but I don’t think he lost his job because of injury. Pauling still leads the team by a considerable margin in targets and receptions.
Best of the Rest – RB Cade Yacamelli ($3,500) Walker is now the surefire RB1, but Wisconsin has split carries at times during the year, and Yacamelli looks be the primary backup, now with 30 or more rushing yards in four of five games played. Did not watch the Purdue game, but it was interesting to see the snap counts of WR Bryson Green ($3,400) and WR CJ Williams ($3,600). Green played just 12% of the snaps against the Boilermakers while Williams was on the field a season-high 71% of the time.
Injury Notes – n/a
Rutgers:
Top Play(s) – RB Kyle Monangai ($7,600) This is one of the lower projections that we’ve had for Monangai this year, but the senior back is still dominating the backfield market share at nearly 60% with over half of the team’s rushing touchdowns. Just one running back has scored more than 15 fantasy points against the Badgers this season, and that came in Week 1.
Fade – WR Athan Kaliakmanis ($5,900) Averaging 9 fantasy points per game against B1G team and 10 fantasy points per game against P4 opponents. No thanks.
Bargain Bin – TE Kenny Fletcher ($3,600) Second on the team in targets (24), first in receptions (19) and a quarter of the Rutgers’ receiving touchdowns. Fletcher has played over 80% of the team’s offensive snaps in each of the last three weeks.
Pivot Play – WR Dymere Miller ($4,300) Miller has been quiet the last two weeks in Rutgers’ B1G matchups, but still leads the team in targets and routes run.
Best of the Rest – Freshmen. WRs Ben Black and KJ Duff stood out last week vs. Nebraska, starting in place of the injured Ian Strong, combining for 10 targets and a touchdown between them. We’re obviously not all that interested in Rutgers wideouts, but if Ian Strong should be limited again on Saturday, both freshmen could be cheap options to fill out your lineups. WR Chris Long ($3,400) saw a season-high nine targets vs. the Cornhuskers.
Injury Notes – n/a
Texas vs. Oklahoma
Point-Spread: Tex -13.5
O/U Total: 49.5
Implied Score: Tex 31.5 – OU 18
Weather: 91 degrees / 0% rain / 10 mph winds
Texas:
Top Play(s) – A Texas Running Back. Deciding on which one is the difficult task. Jaydon Blue has the highest projection still, but we’re tentative to go all-in here after his two fumbles resulted in a benching in Week 5. Tre Wisner looked like the better back vs. Mississippi State, rushing for 88 yards on 13 attempts. HC Steve Sarkisian offered up a vote of confidence for Blue this week in his presser, but we’ll see if Blue retains his RB1 spot moving forward. As a 14-point favorite, having a Texas running back in your lineup feels optimal.
Fade – QB Quinn Ewers ($9,900) Too expensive at just a 20-point projection this week, coming off injury. The only quarterback this season to score more than 20 fantasy points against Oklahoma was…Payton Thorne. Maybe that’s an indication that Ewers could find success, but the OU secondary is a solid group, ranking 28th in EPA per pass defensively and giving up a combined 13 FPPG to quarterbacks overall.
Bargain Bin – TE Gunnar Helm ($3,700) Auburn tight ends combined for 18 fantasy points in Week 5 vs. Oklahoma. Helm is fourth on the team in targets (17) but has played 100% of the offensive snaps in each of the last two games and has an absurd 95% catch rate.
Pivot Play – Blue over Wisner. Tempting to go the cheap route in Wisner, but Sark has shown to stick with his starters previously – Kicker Burt Auburn missed five kicks last season, and the HC stuck with his kicker. Different scenario given the depth at RB for the Longhorns, but Wisner is going to be highly owned this week. If there’s a shared workload, Blue still holds a massive advantage with his usage in the passing game, ranked third on the team with 21 targets.
Best of the Rest – WR Isaiah Bond ($5,900) or WR Matthew Golden ($4,400) There’s separation at the top with Bond and Golden combining for 48 targets and playing over 70% of the team’s offensive snaps. The debate is WR3 and WR4 as it seems Texas has turned a page over to the freshmen DeAndre Moore Jr. and Ryan Wingo. Albeit in a blowout situation, both Moore and Wingo played around 20% more of the offensive snaps over Silas Bolden and Johntay Cook. Bolden did not play a single snap vs. Miss. State.
Injury Notes – n/a
Oklahoma:
Top Play(s) – RB Jovantae Barnes ($4,500) Barnes wasn’t all that effective vs. Auburn, averaging just three yards per carry on the day, but found the end-zone once on 18 carries in the win. Most importantly, no other running back on the roster received a single rushing attempt. Taylor Tatum potentially returning could change that dynamic, but we’re expecting Barnes to dominate the backfield again Saturday.
Fade – QB Michael Hawkins ($7,200) Just not the matchup or the type of slate (12-gamer) that we need to consider Hawkins an option in this spot. Texas is No. 1 nationally in pass D success rate and giving up just 5.4 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks this season. Not to mention most of the WR room will be out again.
Bargain Bin – TE Bauer Sharp ($3,400) Four receptions in each of the last three games for Sharp who was tied for the team lead in targets vs. Auburn. Texas allowed 14 fantasy points to Colston Loveland in their matchup with Michigan earlier this season. If we get a surprise that one or multiple OU wideouts are returning from injury, interest in Sharp is downgraded.
Pivot Play – WR Brenen Thompson ($4,500) The advantage Thompson has over the other OU wideouts is that he’ll start regardless of if Deion Burks is back in the lineup or not. Had minimal yardage vs. Auburn but led all Sooner receivers in routes run with an aDOT over 18 yards so maybe he can pop one on Saturday.
Best of the Rest – WR Jaquaize Pettaway ($4,200) Pettaway was thought to potentially be WR1 with all the injuries but was targeted just twice against Auburn and credited with a drop. Pettaway and WR J.J. Hester ($4,000) were the only receivers outside of Thompson to notch a target in Week 5.
Injury Notes – OU is still the walking wounded at wide receiver, unlikely to have Deion Burks, Andrel Anthony, Nic Anderson or Jalil Farooq again on Saturday. HC Brent Venables did indicate that Burks is the closest and could play vs. Texas, along with Taylor Tatum.
Cincinnati vs. Central Florida
Point-Spread: UCF -3
O/U Total: 59
Implied Score: UCF 31 – Cin 28
Weather: 80 degrees / 13% rain / 13 mph winds
Cincinnati:
Top Play(s) – WR Xzavier Henderson ($7,100) Henderson is one of two wideouts on the slate with over 30% target share for his respective team and UCF has one of the worst pass defenses in the Big 12, ranked 124th in success rate. Six wide receivers have scored more than 15 fantasy points already this season vs. UCF.
Fade – RB Manny Covey ($4,000) Back to the bench for Covey despite scoring 32 fantasy points with over 100 yards receiving in Week 5 vs. Texas Tech. Scott Satterfield confirmed that Corey Kiner is healthy and ready to go for this weekend. Maybe Covey will be a fantasy asset down the road once Kiner graduates.
Bargain Bin – TE Joe Royer ($3,400) The Ohio State transfer tight end remains the secondary option in the passing game behind Henderson, ranked second in targets (31), second in receptions (20) and first in routes run. One of the best bargain options of the slate.
Pivot Play – WR Jamoi Mayes ($3,300) A bit of a risk, but let’s see if this trend for Mayes continues after this week. Season-high eight targets vs. Texas Tech in Week 5, playing 90% of the team’s offensive snaps – most of any Cincy wideouts. Mayes is capable as a former 1,000-yard receiver last season for Chattanooga.
Best of the Rest – QB Brendan Sorsby ($7,400) Our projection doesn’t really indicate Sorsby to be a strong option this week, but I actually think it might be a tad low given how bad UCF is against the pass. BUT the projection is right in line with the FPPG average UCF allows so far this season at just 20.4. Josh Hoover and Shedeur Sanders both scored over 24 fantasy points in their respective matchups.
Injury Notes – n/a
Central Florida:
Top Play(s) – RB RJ Harvey ($9,200) Cincinnati’s run defense is the lesser of two defensive components for the Bearcats, ranked 102nd in success rate and 86th in EPA per rush play defensively. We consider Harvey to be an elite fantasy running back, correct? Cincinnati faced two other elite fantasy RBs so far – Desmond Reid and Tahj Brooks – and allowed over 65 fantasy points combined to the two.
Fade – RB Peny Boone ($5,200) Boone continues to be priced as if he plays for Toledo still. Hasn’t scored double-digit fantasy points since Week 2 against G5 competition.
Bargain Bin – TE Randy Pittman ($3,300) The sophomore tight end will essentially function as the WR2 now behind Kobe Hudson with Xavier Townsend no longer on the roster. 15 of his 19 targets have come in the last three weeks and played 92% of the offensive snaps against Florida last Saturday night.
Pivot Play – QB KJ Jefferson ($8,900) I don’t think UCF will make a quarterback change this season, unless this season spirals further. But last Saturday was a low point, scoring just 3.8 fantasy points while completing 54% of his passes against a below average Florida defense. Eli Holstein, Behren Morton and Brett Gabbert all scored over 20 fantasy points in their matchup with Cincy this season, though it was Holstein’s lowest output of the entire year.
Best of the Rest – WR Kobe Hudson ($6,500) Team leader in every receiving category, with over 30% of UCF’s receiving production. Five receivers have scored over 16 fantasy points this season vs. Cincinnati, none of which are better players than Hudson. It’s a matter of if KJ Jefferson can throw the ball consistently. WR Trent Whittemore ($3,900) seemed to step up most as the WR2 in place of Townsend, playing over 70% of snaps in the last three games and was targeted four times vs. the Gators.
Injury Notes – QB Connor Weigman ($6,200)
California vs. Pittsburgh
Point-Spread: Pitt -3
O/U Total: 58
Implied Score: Pitt 30.5 – Cal 27.5
Weather: 67 degrees / 7% rain / 6 mph winds
California:
Top Play(s) – RB Jaydn Ott ($7,700) This is one of the least appealing teams for college fantasy right now, and speaks volumes when our top play is a running back that ran for just two yards last week against Miami. That was due in small part to coming back from injury, but game script was not a factor as Cal was up multiple scores heading into the 4th quarter. While ineffective on the ground, Ott was his normal self in the passing game with a 66-yard touchdown reception. In every game that he’s played four quarters, Ott has been targeted at least four times.
Fade – QB Fernando Mendoza ($6,400) A wildcard that you have no idea what to expect from week to week. The high-ish game total is intriguing, but Pitt has been sound defensively against the pass and has allowed just one QB to score more than 20 fantasy points all season. There are just more intriguing options on this slate at the QB position that it doesn’t make sense to risk a dud from Mendoza, which he’s fully capable of.
Bargain Bin – TEs. 29 targets combined this season between Corey Dyches and Jack Endries – both of which you’ll see playing on Sundays in the future. Dyches is the preferred option of the two, playing 86% of snaps last week vs. Miami compared to just 46% for Endries. Two tight ends have scored 13 or more fantasy points vs. Pitt this season.
Pivot Play – WR Nyziah Hunter ($5,300) Hunter has four of the team’s seven receiving touchdowns this season but it’s a low volume passing game for Cal that spreads the ball around to five wideouts and two tight ends. Not necessary to have any Cal pass-catcher in a lineup. Averages just four targets a contest.
Best of the Rest – WR Mason Starling ($3,000) Starling was targeted just once vs. Miami despite playing the most snaps (65%) of any Cal receiver. Had five receptions on six targets the week prior vs. Florida State.
Injury Notes – n/a
Pittsburgh:
Top Play(s) – RB Desmond Reid ($9,400) Even in a “down” game on the ground, Reid still managed to score 41 fantasy points last week against North Carolina with 11 receptions for 155 yards and a score as one of the best all-around running backs in the country. Cal does not grade out well with the advanced analytics defending the run, ranked 127th in success rate and 117th in EPA per rush play.
Fade – RB Daniel Carter ($4,300) Carter had one big performance against Youngstown State when Reid sat out for precautionary reasons. Now with Rodney Hammond back in the mix, Carter is relegated to 4th string and should be min priced.
Bargain Bin – WR Raphael Williams Jr. ($4,400) Pitt spreads the ball around equally between four different receivers and Reid, so it’s a hit or miss proposition including one in your lineups. Williams is tied for the team lead in touchdowns (4) with Reid and leads all Pitt wideouts in routes run this season, so he’s the best bet among the cheaper options.
Pivot Play – QB Eli Holstein ($9,700) There are better values on the board at QB from a pricing standpoint, but Holstein continues to get it done each week, scoring 27 or more fantasy points in every game played this season, and 40+ in each of the last two games. Holstein is our 4th highest projected player of the entire weekend and Cal ranks just 73rd in pass D success rate.
Best of the Rest – WR Konata Mumpfield ($5,800) Team leader in targets (34) and receptions (23), and second in routes run behind Williams. WRs Censere Lee ($3,400) and Kenny Johnson ($3,600) are also factors in the passing game, playing around 50% of the team’s snaps and averaging five targets per game. Pitt spreads it around between four different receivers. All four are worth a dart throw.
Injury Notes – n/a
Louisville vs. Virginia
Point-Spread: UL -7.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Implied Score: UL 31 – UVA 23.5
Weather: 76 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Louisville:
Top Play(s) – WR Ja’Corey Brooks ($6,700) We say it every week but Jeff Brohm’s WR1s are undefeated. The Alabama transfer isn’t averaging 10 targets per game like previous Brohm WR1s, but Brooks is still productive each week, finding the end-zone five times in the last three games alone. UVA allows a ton of fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, with five different wideouts scoring at least 15 fantasy points in their matchups with the Hoos.
Fade – RB Keyjuan Brown ($3,300) We saw a little separation finally in the Louisville backfield, with Brown playing just six offensive snaps vs. SMU – his lowest number this season. Seems as though Don Chaney and Isaac Brown have surpassed him.
Bargain Bin – RB Isaac Brown ($4,300) Don Chaney started the game vs. SMU, and did find the end-zone on 10 attempts, but eventually gave way to the younger, more talent option in Brown. Time for Louisville to stop with the nonsensical rotation at running back and give the freshman running back the entire workload, now averaging just under 10 yards per carry for the season. Just one running back has scored double-digit fantasy points against UVA this season, but the Hoos rank just 107th in rush D success rate.
Pivot Play – WR Caullin Lacy ($3,900) This always seems to happen in DFS right? Cheap option that is priced WAY lower than he should be, with probably the highest ownership on the slate, and he busted. Lacy caught just two passes on four targets, but still played 60% of the game. WR Chris Bell ($3,500) is downgraded with Lacy back in the lineup, but his starting position remains unchanged, running the second most routes on the team behind Brooks, and over 84% of the snaps vs. SMU last week.
Best of the Rest – QB Tyler Shough ($7,700) Good, not great matchup for Shough this week as the UVA pass defense has been ok. Virginia is 84th in pass D success rate, 81st in EPA per pass play, and allowing 22.6 FPPG to opposing QBs. A 22-point projection at this price makes Shough a solid QB option.
Injury Notes – RB Maurice Turner ($3,600) Did not play for a third straight game last week vs. SMU. Would just double check to see his status for Saturday as it could impact Brown. But I would think the freshman will still be the team’s top backfield option regardless.
Virginia:
Top Play(s) – WR Malachi Fields ($7,500) Fields remains UVA’s top fantasy option with 29% of the team’s target share and a third of Virginia’s receiving production. Virginia likely won’t have a ton of success running the ball on Louisville and four receivers this season have scored at least 15 fantasy points against the Cardinals.
Fade – RB Kobe Pace ($4,300) Pace is coming off one of his better performances of the year with 80+ yards last week vs. Boston College. Louisville is stout up the middle, ranked 22nd in rush D success rate and have allowed just one running back to score more than 11 fantasy points all season.
Bargain Bin – WR JR Wilson ($3,000) Wilson was healthy for the first time this season and played well in his return with four receptions on six targets, playing nearly 50% of the snaps. Like Fields, he’s another big-bodied option on the outside at 6-foot-4.
Pivot Play – QB Anthony Colandrea ($7,900) The sophomore QB has hit a bit of a wall since his blistering start to the year, scoring fewer than 18 fantasy points in each of the last three games. Neither of which were that daunting of opponents either facing Boston College, Coastal Carolina and Maryland. If there is a Colandrea rushing prop, I’d maybe look to the over here as Louisville has struggled mightily with dual-threat QBs this season, allowing four quarterbacks to score over 23 fantasy points. He’ll see low ownership in this matchup.
Best of the Rest – WR Andre Greene Jr. ($3,500) The North Carolina transfer saw a season-high five targets last week. WR Kameron Courtney ($3,000) played 71% of his offensive snaps in the slot last week in place of the injured Chris Tyree and looks set to start again Saturday. TE Tyler Neville ($3,500) is second on the team in routes run and targets (18). Louisville allowed 15 fantasy points this past Saturday to SMU’s RJ Maryland.
Injury Notes – WR Chris Tyree and WR Trell Harris are “day to day” according to HC Tony Elliott. Tyree is the unlikelier of the two to play as Elliott stated he anticipates that “he wouldn’t go this week.” Harris is “hopeful” to play.
Stanford vs. Notre Dame
Point-Spread: ND -22.5
O/U Total: 45.5
Implied Score: ND 35 – Stan 12.5
Weather: 68 degrees / 10% rain / 7 mph winds
Stanford:
Top Play(s) – WR Elic Ayomanor ($5,700) Ayomanor was targeted nine times vs. Virginia Tech but converted just three times while finding the end-zone. Volume will be there regardless, but we’re only interested if Ashton Daniels plays this week. This is really not the matchup for any Stanford player, facing a Notre Dame defense that is No. 1 in pass D success rate.
Fade – QBs. Regardless of its Justin Lamson or Ashton Daniels, don’t even bother rostering the starter against one of the best pass defenses in the country. The Irish are giving up just 9.5 FPPG to opposing QBs this season.
Bargain Bin – RB Chris Davis ($3,200) Micah Ford came off the field limping late in last week’s loss to the Hokies. If he should be out on Saturday, Davis would get the starting nod in the backfield, now averaging over seven yards a carry for the season. The run defense for the Irish has been a bit vulnerable, allowing 30 fantasy points to NIU’s Antario Brown and 20 fantasy points to Louisville’s Isaac Brown in Week 5.
Pivot Play – WR Emmett Mosley ($4,500) The true freshman has assumed the WR2 spot behind Ayomanor, now with 11 receptions on 13 targets in two games. WR Ismael Cisse ($4,400) is now a distant third after his hot start to the year, with just five combined targets in the last two weeks.
Best of the Rest – TE Sam Roush ($3,300) Roush is third on the team in targets (14), receptions (12) and routes run. Notre Dame has yet to allow a tight end to score more than seven fantasy points.
Injury Notes – We’re writing this up as of Tuesday to get ahead of schedule, so don’t have any confirmed updates on some of the injured players. QB situation is obviously up in the air, and we’ll look for any Micah Ford updates during the week.
Notre Dame:
Top Play(s) – QB Riley Leonard ($8,000) Dream matchup for Riley Leonard here as Stanford is 114th in pass D success rate and has allowed four quarterbacks already to score more than 23 fantasy points against them this year.
Fade – WR Jayden Thomas ($3,600) Garbage time touchdown is likely the only way Thomas is relevant to us here. Played a season-low 21% of snaps vs. Louisville in Week 5 with a fully healthy wide receiver room, which the Irish should have again coming off a bye.
Bargain Bin – WR Jaden Greathouse ($3,800) Maybe, just maybe a corner has been turned for Greathouse, who had a season-best 61 yards and a touchdown vs. Louisville.
Pivot Play – WR Beaux Collins ($4,300) Collins is the undisputed WR1 for the Irish, leading the team in every receiving category. The Cardinal secondary has been abused by opposing receivers, already allowing six wideouts to score more than 17 fantasy points against them.
Best of the Rest – RB Jeremiyah Love ($6,100) For as bad as Stanford is at defending the pass, they’re adequate at stopping the run, ranked 67th in rush D success rate and giving up just 13.4 FPPG combined to opposing backfields. Love is good enough to buck that trend and showed his abilities in the passing game vs. Louisville with 27 yards on five catches and a score. He’s not out of the picture by any means, but we might lessen our exposure because of Stanford’s ability to limit the run game.
Injury Notes – n/a
Penn State vs. USC
Point-Spread: PSU -4.5
O/U Total: 51.5
Implied Score: PSU 28 – USC 23.5
Weather: 75 degrees / 0% rain / 8 mph winds
Penn State:
Top Play(s) – RB Nick Singleton ($7,000) or RB Kaytron Allen ($6,000) Singleton missed last week due to illness but is expected to play Saturday so this backfield will look how it did the first four games of the season for Penn State. RBs have fared well against USC this season, most recently Darius Taylor who topped 100 yards with 24 fantasy points. That’s a combined 70 fantasy points allowed to RB1s in the last three games. I prefer not to stack the Penn State backfield, but it sounds like Penn State will run a bunch on Saturday.
Fade – WR Julian Fleming ($3,800) Fleming did have a season-high in targets last week (5), resulting in just 27 yards on two catches. The Ohio State transfer played just 55% of snaps as Penn State rotated a bunch at wide receiver.
Bargain Bin – WR Harrison Wallace ($4,500) Not necessary at all to have a Penn State receiver in a lineup, but Wallace still leads all Penn State wideouts in every receiving category. Three receivers have scored 16 or more fantasy points against USC this season.
Pivot Play – TE Tyler Warren ($5,300) I wouldn’t call Tyler Warren Brock Bowers just yet, but he’s getting closer to that territory. Team leader in all receiving categories and has four rushing attempts in the last three games. There’s also the off chance that Warren could throw a touchdown, as he did in Week 4 vs. Kent State. He’s a do-it-all type player.
Best of the Rest – QB Drew Allar ($7,900) USC is 25th in EPA per pass play defensively but have yet to face a good quarterback outside of Garrett Nussmeier this season. The Trojans allowed 26 fantasy points this past Saturday to Max Brosmer.
Injury Notes – n/a
USC:
Top Play(s) – RB Woody Marks ($7,900) Likely won’t have any USC exposure this week, but Marks gets top billing for how consistent he’s been this season, scoring double digit fantasy points in every contest. If it were just for his running abilities, Marks would not be considered given this is a Penn State defense that is No. 8 nationally in rush D success rate. But Marks’ usage out of the backfield is one of the best in the country with 19 receptions on 25 targets.
Fade – WR Ja’Kobi Lane ($5,800) I’d go cheap if selecting a USC receiver, even though Lane is the best of the bunch from a talent perspective. His one explosion week came with Makai Lemon out of the lineup. Not the case as the USC WR room is fully healthy.
Bargain Bin – WR Duce Robinson ($3,300) Robinson should be priced about $1k more than this salary. Was tied for the team lead in targets vs. Minnesota last week despite only playing 48% of snaps and has now caught a touchdown in each of the last three games. Not a tight end – although he’s utilized in the slot like one – but Penn State did have troubles accounting for Harold Fannin in an earlier matchup this year. Maybe Robinson finds similar success over the middle of the field.
Pivot Play – WR Zachariah Branch ($4,800) Branch still leads the team in targets (34), receptions (21) and routes run, but his playing time was down vs. Minnesota with just 47% snaps played with a drop. USC is back to spreading the ball around equally between 4-5 different receivers like they have in year’s past.
Best of the Rest – QB Miller Moss ($7,500) Likely not the week you want to have Moss in a lineup. Penn State hasn’t really played anyone of note to this point but are giving up just 8 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs and ranked 7th nationally in EPA per pass defensively. He’s priced down to a point where you could probably play him with a positive game script but would absolutely limit exposure.
Injury Notes – QB Connor Weigman ($6,200)
Arizona vs. BYU
Point-Spread: BYU -3.5
O/U Total: 48.5
Implied Score: BYU 26 – Ariz 22.5
Weather: 75 degrees / 6% rain / 5 mph winds
Arizona:
Top Play(s) – WR Tet McMillan ($8,500) Not necessarily a scenario to spend up for McMillan given his step price tag and 17-point projection, but one of the few alphas at receiver on the slate with 37% of the team’s target share and tied for 4th nationally in total targets. The only time this season that BYU allowed a receiver to score double-digit fantasy points was against Baylor in a game where the Bears were in a very heavy pass-script scenario. In fact, three Baylor wideouts score more than 16 fantasy points. Outside of that, not much success for receivers against this defense.
Fade – WR2. Montana Lemonious-Craig plays over 60% of the team’s offensive snaps, yet averages under four targets per game with one performance of over 40 receiving yards. He’s on the field, but mainly running wind sprints.
Bargain Bin – TE Keyan Burnett ($4,500) No consistent WR2 behind Tet McMillan for the Wildcats which has led to increased opportunities for Burnett who has five receptions in each of the last two games on a combined 12 targets.
Pivot Play – QB Noah Fifita ($6,500) Fantasy production hasn’t been there this season for Fifita who has scored over 20 fantasy points just once in the opener against New Mexico. He’s a non-runner with essentially just one option to throw to in the passing game with McMillan. It’s mildly intriguing, though, that his passing volume has seen a significant uptick in the last three weeks, averaging 40 attempts per. BYU has one of the better pass defenses in the B12, ranked 15th in success rate, 14th in EPA per pass play and giving up only 17.4 FPPG to opposing QBs.
Best of the Rest – QB Quali Conley ($7,100) Conley is probably too expensive given the matchup as BYU is best against the run this season, giving up just 13.8 FPPG to opposing backfields. The usage in the passing game is intriguing, though, ranked third on the team with 18 receptions on 19 targets, including eight this past game vs. Texas Tech.
Injury Notes – n/a
BYU:
Top Play(s) – QB Jake Retzlaff ($7,400) There are some surefire, can’t miss QBs on the slate – Klubnik and Riley Leonard – but Retzlaff projects decently at his pricing. And QBs have found some success against the Wildcats this season, allowing over 22 fantasy points which is right about where Retzlaff is projected at. Running QBs like Devon Dampier and Avery Johnson have given this defense the most fits so far, and Retzlaff is averaging around 30 rushing yards per contest.
Fade – RB Sione Moa ($4,000) The entire BYU running back room is healthy entering Saturday – something we haven’t said all season it feels like. Moa played well against Kansas State with 76 yards on 15 carries but is down to fourth on the depth chart (if it’s accurate).
Bargain Bin – WR Darius Lassiter ($4,200) The Eastern Michigan transfer has been outstanding since his return from injury, averaging over seven targets per contest over the last four games. Against Baylor in Week 5, Lassiter had a team-best 13 targets which was 43% of the target share. Too cheap for a wideout that has found the end-zone in the last three games.
Pivot Play – RB LJ Martin ($4,100) Can we trust Martin in this spot coming back from injury. Against SMU, the game in which he did get injured, it was mentioned on the telecast that BYU had planned to give him a heavy workload that night. Does that ring true still on Saturday? Arizona is 91st in rush success rate and did allow 27 fantasy points a few weeks ago to Tahj Brooks.
Best of the Rest – WR Chase Roberts ($4,800) Hit or miss it feels like with Roberts’ production this season, but does lead the team in routes run and receiving yards, averaging over 16 yards per reception. Roberts and Lassiter accounted for 18 of the 30 targets in Week 5. Tough to trust any of the remaining pass-catching options for BYU. WR Keelan Marion ($3,500) was targeted just twice in Week 5, but played over 70% of the offensive snaps. That should be the case again with Kody Epps out.
Injury Notes – n/a
