Alabama vs. Missouri
- Point-Spread: Ala -3.5
- O/U Total: 52.5
- Implied Score: Ala 28 – Mizzou 24.5
- Weather: 71 degrees / 3% rain / 6 mph winds
Alabama:
Top Play(s) – QB Ty Simpson ($9,000) Alabama is second in the SEC in yards per game through the air with Simpson throwing to one of the best WR rooms in the country. Implied total doesn’t necessarily suggest shootout, so Simpson won’t be a Core 4 option, but we know what we’re getting each week from the Alabama passing game. Missouri is 3rd in the SEC in yards allowed per game through the air, but those numbers are inflated by facing bad opponents. South Carolina and Kansas both managed to find success against this Tigers’ secondary.
Fade – RB Kevin Riley ($4,400) Jam Miller looked pretty healthy last week, didn’t he? Riley had a season-low five rushing attempts for 17 yards against Vanderbilt, while on the field just 22% of the time.
Bargain Bin – WR Isaiah Horton ($4,800) Horton’s progression in the offense is steadily rising with each week, having found the end-zone in three of the last four games with a 78.3% catch rate. That’d be even higher if not for two drops in the last two games. Horton is on the field more than Ryan Williams, ranked third behind Germie Bernard and Josh Cuevas in routes run.
Pivot Play – RB Jam Miller ($7,200) Missouri is No. 1 in the SEC in yards allowed per game on the ground but lets consider the teams faced. Central Arkansas was the team that ran for the most yards – 154 in the opening week. Kansas (54th), Louisiana (23rd), UMass (135th) and South Carolina (122nd). That’s a lot of mediocre to downright bad rush offenses in that group. Bama isn’t much better (105th) but as we saw last week, a healthy Jam Miller changes the dynamic of the offense. Missouri’s run defense numbers are inflated as well by the schedule.
Best of the Rest – WR Ryan Williams ($7,900) or WR Germie Bernard ($5,900) Williams continues to be the highest-priced Alabama receiver despite leading the country in drops per game. Bernard remains Mr. Reliable for the Tide, catching a touchdown pass in each of the last four games, leading the team in targets (33), receptions (25) and routes run. Bernard barely came off the field against Vandy last Saturday.
Injury Notes – n/a
Missouri:
Top Play(s) – RB Ahmad Hardy ($8,300) Hardy is in play no matter the defense as one of, if not the best, running back in the entire country. The sophomore running back is 7th in attempts, 1st in rushing yards, and maintains a ridiculous 5.3 yards after contact average. SEC opponents have found success on the ground against the Tide with Georgia’s Chauncey Bowens rushing for 100+ on 12 carries, along with Vandy’s Sedrick Alexander averaging over 20 yards per rush.
Fade – n/a – All Missouri starters are in play at attainable prices.
Bargain Bin – TE Brett Norfleet ($3,100) Norfleet is the cheapest, realistic option for the Tigers, playing over 85% of the team’s offensive snaps with a team-best four receiving touchdowns. I did want to spotlight Norfleet as well, though, because the Tide have succeeded at defending the tight end position this season, allowing just 22 yards last week to Eli Stowers which was the most by any TE facing Alabama.
Pivot Play – RB Jamal Roberts ($4,800) I’ll be honest – I don’t know what to do with this one. Roberts has been the perfect complement to Hardy, averaging over seven yards per carry this season with three rushing touchdowns. And he hasn’t necessarily beat up on the low-level teams on the schedule either. 143 yards in Week 2 vs. Kansas. 76 yards and a touchdown vs. South Carolina. This is one where I do reference the betting prop market and projections, which only have Roberts around 40-45 yards, so take that fwiw.
Best of the Rest – QB Beau Pribula ($7,100) Pribula’s fantasy numbers have come back down to Earth in recent weeks, and his projection reflects that at just 18.4 points. Alabama has not allowed more than one passing touchdown in any game this season and have faced several dual threats in preparation for this matchup with Diego Pavia and Gunner Stockton in recent weeks. WR Kevin Coleman ($6,300) has been the perfect transfer addition to the offense, with no drop off from Luther Burden last year, with 39 receptions and a team-high 43 targets. WR Marquis Johnson ($4,700) is second in targets (26) and leads the Tigers in routes run.
Injury Notes – n/a
Central Florida vs. Cincinnati
- Point-Spread: Cin -11.5
- O/U Total: 54.5
- Implied Score: Cin 33 – UCF 21.5
- Weather: 65 degrees / 4% rain / 3 mph winds
Central Florida:
Top Play(s) – RB Myles Montgomery ($6,200) Over thought it last week suggesting Jaden Nixon was the better value over Myles Montgomery, and the latter was in the winning lineups with less than 5% ownership, rushing for 110 yards and two touchdowns vs. Kansas. Expect UCF to lean on Montgomery even more this week with likely having to start Cam Fancher at quarterback.
Fade – QB Cam Fancher ($6,500) Rule No. 1 of College Football DFS – Never Cam Fancher.
Bargain Bin – RB Jaden Nixon ($3,700) Montgomery is the RB1, that much is clear now, but what more does Jaden Nixon need to do to get on the field more. Four rushing touchdowns in the last four games, and an absurd 12.4 YPC average. Even against Kansas last week with Montgomery stealing the show, Nixon managed 60 yards on just seven attempts. Should be a run-heavy script for UCF on Saturday.
Pivot Play – TE Kylan Fox ($3,300) Fox led UCF last week with six targets. I’d figured that typical starter Dylan Wade was out with injury if that was the case, but nope, Wade was in the lineup too. Fox has seven receptions in the last two games with 11 combined targeted.
Best of the Rest – WR Duane Thomas ($3,800) or WR Waden Charles ($3,200) Better off looking at other options if Cam Fancher does get the nod on Saturday, but Thomas and Charles would be the top options if you did want a UCF receiver. Thomas converted on all six of his targets vs. Kansas, while leading the team in every receiving category for the season. Charles, a 4-star freshman, logged a season-best three receptions, playing over 95% of the team’s snaps, which was also a season-high.
Injury Notes – QB Tayven Jackson (questionable),
Cincinnati:
Top Play(s) – QB Brendan Sorsby ($7,700) Sorsby continues to be underpriced and should be another high-ownership play on the slate, but for good reason, scoring 29 or more fantasy points in each of the last four games. Sorsby has the highest projection of any player on the entire slate for theCFFSite. UCF was able to corral Jalon Daniels last week, though weather had much to do with that, but did allow 75 yards on the ground to Avery Johnson in the week prior.
Fade – n/a – All Cincinnati starters are in play at attainable prices.
Bargain Bin – WR Caleb Goodie ($4,000) Goodie came through last week for those that rostered him, though it was a sweat, with his 82-yard touchdown coming late in the second half. Both Goodie and WR Jeff Caldwell ($3,900) remain options because of their pricing, and the fact Cincinnati isn’t rotating much at receiver beyond the top three. That said, UCF’s secondary might be better than Iowa State, ranking 38th in success rate and 25th in PFF coverage grades.
Pivot Play – RB Tawee Walker ($5,000) or RB Evan Pryor ($4,400) As we saw last week, the RBs are playable with Brendan Sorsby in a lineup, but don’t think we see the shootout that we did with Iowa State. Walker has come on of late with three rushing touchdowns in the last three games, averaging six yards a carry. Pryor has over 200+ in the last two weeks, with two scores last Saturday. UCF is 10th in the B12 in yards allowed on the ground and 84th in rush D success rate.
Best of the Rest – WR Cyrus Allen ($5,800) Allen will see low ownership with his salary in comparison to Caleb Goodie, and Allen’s ownership probably takes a bigger hit after just three catches last week vs. the Cyclones. We shouldn’t dismiss the three games prior to that, though, with five combined touchdowns, including an 11-catch performance against Kansas.
Injury Notes – n/a
Houston vs. Oklahoma State
- Point-Spread: Hou -13.5
- O/U Total: 47.5
- Implied Score: Hou 30.5 – OSU 17
- Weather: 78 degrees / 1% rain / 10 mph winds
Houston:
Top Play(s) – RB Dean Connors ($7,900) Connors is a play regardless of the QB status, but would expect to see Houston lean on the run game more if Conner Weigman is out on Saturday. Connors was a non-factor against Texas Tech – expected vs. the No. 2 scoring defense in the country – but still led the team with 13 rushing attempts. Oklahoma State was the 1980 Pittsburgh Steelers last week vs. Arizona (of course when I started Ismail Mahdi everywhere) but still rank second to last in the B12 in yards allowed per game on the ground.
Fade – WR Stephon Johnson ($6,000) Easiest player to fade on the slate. Why is Stephon Johnson almost double the salary of WR Amare Thomas ($3,200) when it is Thomas that has more targets, receptions and receiving yards?
Bargain Bin – TE Tanner Koziol ($4,700) Team leader in targets (32), receptions (25) and third in routes run. The only game in which Koziol didn’t hit value was last week against a dominant Texas Tech defense. Four or more receptions in each of the previous four weeks. Koziol is downgraded, though, if Chriss starts.
Pivot Play – QB Zeon Chriss ($7,700) This will be a Saturday morning swap most likely if Conner Weigman does not play, as he’s in concussion protocol. Chriss offers little as a passer, but we know what he can do with his legs, rushing for 388 yards and four touchdowns in 2024. It feels like a dual-threat QB could do some damage against this Oklahoma State defense that doesn’t do much of anything well.
Injury Notes – QB Conner Weigman (questionable)
Oklahoma State:
No official word as to who starts for Oklahoma State at quarterback on Saturday, but HC Doug Meacham said on Monday that Zane Flores will likely not play this week. That means it’ll be WR Sam Jackson V ($3,000) or QB Banks Bowen ($4,500) as the Cowboys starter. Jackson, the pride of Naperville, Illinois and the second-most famous person to come from that town (behind yours truly), was originally recruited by Meacham to TCU, giving him comparisons to a former top fantasy performer in Trevone Boykin. A $3k wide receiver playing quarterback is worth the risk, in my opinion, regardless of how bad Oklahoma State is offensively.
Pittsburgh vs. Florida State
- Point-Spread: FSU -10
- O/U Total: 58
- Implied Score: FSU 34 – Pitt 24
- Weather: 74 degrees / 2% rain / 11 mph winds
Pittsburgh:
Top Play(s) – WR Kenny Johnson ($4,500) Johnson was the projected WR1 coming into the year, gave way to Poppi Williams, but perhaps has reassumed his mantle atop the depth chart with the quarterback change. Nine receptions on 11 targets vs. Boston College on Saturday. Maybe Mason Heintschel prefers throwing to Johnson, or the more likely scenario is that it’ll be a different Pitt receiver each week just as it was last season.
Fade – QB Mason Heintschel ($7,800) The Eli Holstein experiment is officially over. Heintschel was reportedly getting first-team reps this week in practice with no official starter announced for Saturday, but with his job hanging in the balance, Pat Narduzzi handed the keys over to the true freshman. The move paid off, with Heintschel tossing four touchdowns and over 300 yards in the blowout win over Boston College. Projection doesn’t match the salary here, so we’ll take a wait n’ see approach to see how the freshman performs on the road against a ranked opponent, compared to a team that might’ve quit on Bill O’Brien last week.
Bargain Bin – WR Cataurus Hicks ($3,100) Hit or miss player that’s going for 20 fantasy points or 2. If last week’s contest was any indication (blowout might’ve impacted this though), Hicks might be in danger of losing his starting job as he played as many snaps as WR Deuce Spann ($3,200).
Pivot Play – WR Raphael Williams Jr. ($4,200) We gave out Kenny Johnson as the top play, but Williams has been the more consistent of the two this season, leading the team in routes run with a team-best 318 yards and four touchdowns. We’re taking the “what have you done for me lately” approach here, with Heintschel potentially having the better rapport with Johnson over Williams based on last week’s performance.
Best of the Rest – RB Juelz Goff ($4,200) or RB Ja’Kyrian Turner ($3,300) We’ll see this week on the injury report if Desmond Reid is available or not, with the lean towards not. There’s a definite tell with Pat Narduzzi’s injury reports – just two of 12 players that have been listed as questionable saw the field that week and played minimal snaps. So, we’ll no whether Reid is in or not. Both Goff and Turner found the end-zone last week vs. Boston College, though Florida State is a different challenge, ranked 3rd in the ACC in yards allowed on the ground and 23rd in rush D success rate.
Injury Notes – RB Desmond Reid (questionable)
Florida State:
Top Play(s) – RB Gavin Sawchuk ($4,500) Pricing is the only reason why Sawchuk is the top play here, projected at 15 fantasy points. The reasons for concern? RB Ousmane Kromah ($3,500) started against Miami last week, though he did eventually give way to Sawchuk. Roydell Williams is back. And Pittsburgh has the No. 1 rush defense in the ACC. If Sawchuk’s salary were higher, he’d be a fade.
Fade – RB Roydell Williams ($5,400) Don’t see Roydell Williams getting his job back at any point with Sawchuk and Kromah’s role in the offense growing. In his first game back from injury, Williams carried the ball just once vs. Miami.
Bargain Bin – TE Randy Pittman Jr. ($3,300) The game script dictated it with Florida State trailing by multiple scores, but Pittman had a season-high seven receptions on 11 targets vs. Miami and has now scored a touchdown in each of the last two games since returning from injury. Pittman has deep knowledge of the playbook, having spent the last two years with play-caller Gus Malzahn at UCF. WR Micahi Danzi ($3,100) has been targeted four times in each of the last two games as his playing time has risen, and is frequently used on reverse plays, with 176 yards and three touchdowns on the ground.
Pivot Play – QB Tommy Castellanos ($9,600) I know we don’t want to discuss floor when talking about the highest priced QB on the slate, but that’s what Castellanos’ brings to the table, scoring 20+ fantasy points in each of the last four games. There are cheap options at WR again this week, so you can spend up to roster Castellanos who will not have much ownership. Pitt’s QB change is a positive for Castellanos, as it’s more likely the Panthers will keep up with FSU on the scoreboard.
Best of the Rest – WR Duce Robinson ($4,600) Just too cheap for the clear WR1 for the Seminoles, now targeted 22 times combined in the last two weeks. Robinson now has 27% of the team’s target share and more than 200 yards receiving over the next closest FSU pass-catcher.
Injury Notes – n/a
Ohio State vs. Illinois
- Point-Spread: OSU -14.5
- O/U Total: 50.5
- Implied Score: OSU 32.5 – Illini 18
- Weather: 68 degrees / 3% rain / 6 mph winds
Ohio State:
Top Play(s) – WR Jeremiah Smith ($9,000) Jeremiah Smith is matchup-proof against every team in college football not named Michigan or Texas. 22+ fantasy points on DraftKings in four of the five games this season.
Fade – RB CJ Donaldson ($5,300) Donaldson was limited to just three rushing attempts last week against Minnesota, all of which came at the goal line. Good for scoring touchdowns, but volume has been trending down for Donaldson in Week 1, and $5.3k is too expensive for a TD-reliant option.
Bargain Bin – TE Max Klare ($3,100) We saw Klare involved in the offense more last week against Minnesota with a season-best five receptions on six targets for 63 yards. 12 of his 15 targets have come in the last three weeks so his activity in the offense is increasing.
Pivot Play – QB Julian Sayin ($8,500) The projections are never going to favor Sayin because he’s a non-runner, so 20.9 projected points at $8.5k doesn’t seem worth it. Sayin does offer a high floor, though, scoring 26 or more fantasy points in three of his last four games – helps throwing to the best WR in the country each week. Illinois is dead last in the B1G in yards allowed through the air and 90th in pass D success rate.
Best of the Rest – RB Bo Jackson ($5,800) Jackson is dominating the backfield market share the last two weeks, with CJ Donaldson only coming on in goal-line situations and James Peoples in the game during garbage time. The true freshman rushed for 63 yards and a touchdown in the win over Minnesota and has a matchup with the 13th ranked run defense in the B1G. WR Carnell Tate ($5,600) had an offensive explosion last week with 183 yards and a touchdown on 10 targets. Tate is a weekly option, with or without Jeremiah Smith, as the duo account for 10 of the team’s 14 receiving touchdowns and 64% of the receiving production.
Injury Notes – n/a
Illinois:
Top Play(s) – WR Hank Beatty ($4,500) It’s a risky proposition playing any option facing this Ohio State defense, but Beatty’s attainable salary keeps him in the mix. Beatty is fifth nationally with 569 receiving yards, averaging more than 17 yards per catch in 2025 with an exceptional 86.5% catch rate on 37 targets.
Fade – QB Luke Altmyer ($6,000) Altmyer has been truly exceptional this season, tossing 12 touchdowns with zero interceptions and the fourth-best QB rating in the Big Ten. We’re at a point, though, where we’re not considering any quarterback (or player for that matter) against this Buckeyes defense which is No. 1 in the nation in points allowed. Quarterbacks are only scoring 8.5 FPPG against this defense.
Bargain Bin – WR Collin Dixon ($3,200) Dixon hasn’t become the “A1” receiver that Bret Bielema described him as in the offseason, that’s been Hank Beatty, but the sophomore has become a reliable No. 2 option with 70 or more receiving yards and at least four receptions in each of the last three games. 12-point projection at $3.2k is a definite option. Opposing WR groups are only scoring around 20 FPPG against this Buckeye secondary so I would not stack Beatty and Dixon together despite the salary relief.
Pivot Play – RB Ca’Lil Valentine ($3,400) Aidan Laughery is not part of the equation anymore and Kaden Feagin isn’t reliable. As a result, Valentine got the bulk of the carries vs. Purdue with 95 yards and a touchdown on 22 attempts. The run defense isn’t as good as the Ohio State secondary, but still near-elite, allowing only 12 fantasy points to opposing running backs.
Best of the Rest – WR Justin Bowick ($3,300) The Ball State transfer did not start vs. Purdue, but wound up playing more than Hudson Clement, and was targeted four times. He’s the best athlete on the team by a considerable margin and Illinois will challenge teams downfield with Bowick, with an aDOT of over 14 yards.
Injury Notes – n/a
UCLA vs. Michigan State
- Point-Spread: MSU -7.5
- O/U Total: 55.5
- Implied Score: MSU 31.5 – UCLA 24
- Weather: 61 degrees / 7% rain / 5 mph winds
UCLA:
Top Play(s) – QB Nico Iamaleava ($6,200) The age-old question that can be applied to several players on this slate – was last week an aberration or the constant moving forward? Iamaleava scored 50 (!) fantasy points in the upset victory over Penn State, with his usage on the ground a major reason why, rushing for 128 yards and three scores in the win. MSU hasn’t faced many mobile QBs this season but did give up 31 yards and two touchdowns on the ground to USC’s Jayden Maiava two weeks ago. Iamaleava is an option at this price, as the Spartans are allowing 23 FPPG to quarterbacks this season (Iamaleava’s projection is 23.1) and are 116th in pass D success rate.
Fade – WR Mikey Matthews ($4,300) Matthews is now unplayable, particularly at this salary, with WR Rico Flores Jr. ($3,000) back in the lineup as his playing time has dropped each of the last three games. Matthews played a season-low 26% of snaps vs. Penn State with just a single target. Meanwhile, Flores has converted eight of his nine targets into catches since returning from injury in the last two games.
Bargain Bin – See above. Flores is a top sub-$3.5k option, playing over 97% of the offensive snaps last week vs. PSU.
Pivot Play – WR Kwazi Gilmer ($6,700) I wish Gilmer was in the $5k range as we’d have more interest, because $6.7k is a steep price for a player that hasn’t scored more than 21 fantasy points this season. That said, Gilmer won’t kill your lineups as the established WR1 for the Bruins, hitting double-digit fantasy points in each of the last four weeks. Gilmer’s 24 receptions are double the amount of the next closest UCLA receiver.
Best of the Rest – RB Anthony Woods ($3,900) UCLA finally got some traction on the ground last week, not just with Iamaleava, but with the backs too as Woods rushed for 63 yards on 14 attempts. Michigan State is 10th in the B1G in yards allowed on the ground, but are better defending the run than the pass, ranked 28th in rush D success rate. Woods is the preferred option of the two UCLA backs because of his usage in the passing game, ranked second on the team in receptions (14).
Injury Notes – n/a
Michigan State:
Top Play(s) – RB Makhi Frazier ($4,800) Frazier hasn’t been overly effective this season but continues to get the bulk of the carries in the Michigan State backfield. UCLA ranks dead last in the B1G in yards allowed on the ground and dead last in the country in rush D success rate. While it seemed like Penn State didn’t get a ton of traction on the ground last week, the Nittany Lions still averaged over five yards per attempt against the Bruins.
Fade – QB Aidan Chiles ($6,500) We still believe Chiles starts on Saturday, but that leash is going to be short and not worth the risk of sinking your lineups by starting him in DFS. Chiles was awful against Nebraska, completing just 9-of-23 passes for minimal yards and two picks. MSU turns the keys over to backup Alessio Milivojevic and the offense instantly moves the ball as he threw for 71 yards and a score. MSU needs to just utilize Chiles on running downs and get him out of the game when it comes time to throw.
Bargain Bin – TE Jack Velling ($3,100) Velling was a swing and a miss in the preseason as a projected top 12 fantasy tight end, but possibly a glimmer of hope? Two touchdowns in the last two games, with 10 of his 11 receptions for the season coming in the last three weeks. UCLA is allowing close to 16 FPPG to opposing tight ends this season, one of the worst in the country.
Pivot Play – WR Nick Marsh ($5,500) Most will be on WR Omari Kelly ($4,100) as the receivers have nearly identical numbers this season – 31 targets, 22 receptions – with Marsh holding the edge in touchdowns (3). For GPPs, it makes sense to play Marsh over Kelly. Stacking the two in the same lineup is plausible, given UCLA’s struggles defensively, but they’ve done moderately well against receivers this year, allowing just 16 FPPG collectively this season.
Best of the Rest – n/a. Only considerable options are above, but an interesting sub-plot to watch is HC Jonathan Smith getting a scouting report on his future team in UCLA. It feels unlikely at this point Smith will be back in East Lansing next season.
Injury Notes – n/a
Oklahoma vs. Texas
- Point-Spread: Tex -2.5
- O/U Total: 42.5
- Implied Score: Tex 22.5 – OU 20
- Weather: 86 degrees / 1% rain / 7 mph winds
Oklahoma:
Top Play(s) – WR Isaiah Sategna ($3,600) The slot position is almost always profitable in the Ben Arbuckle offensive system. We just thought it’d be Deion Burks instead. Sategna is playing 95% of his snaps in the slot this season and has been excellent in the last three weeks with 299 receiving yards and three touchdowns. Sategna is a top option on the slate, regardless of if it’s John Mateer or Michael Hawkins Jr.
Fade – RB Jaydn Ott ($5,200) I think I’ve used this reference before, but still applicable here. You know that scene of Donald Duck walking while counting cash in his hands? That’s me at the casino after cashing my Jaydn Ott under props. He’s a non-factor. RB Tory Blaylock ($4,400) is the clear RB1 for the Sooners.
Bargain Bin – TE Jaren Kanak ($4,000) Can’t really take anything from the Kent State performance where Kanak has a season-low 21 yards on two catches. Oklahoma starters only played about 35 of the 60 minutes in the game. Kanak has been arguably the team’s most consistent pass-catcher this season with 60 or more receiving yards in his first four outings.
Pivot Play – WR Deion Burks ($5,000) Most will be on Sategna, and for good reason with his pricing and production, which means low ownership for Burks on Saturday. While Burks isn’t the top fantasy option he was projected to be in the preseason, there’s a major trend with his production this year. Seven catches on 12 targets against Michigan. Seven receptions on 10 targets vs. Oklahoma. Both of which were the Sooners’ most competitive matchups of the season. Strong pivot play away from Sategna.
Best of the Rest – QBs. Of course, DraftKings threw a wrench into the entire slate with the pricing of the Oklahoma quarterbacks – they should be in the $8-9k range as John Mateer is a top 10 college fantasy QB in 2025 and Michael Hawkins scored 30 fantasy points last week. It’s still in question as to who will start between the two, with Mateer being listed as questionable on the injury report and Oklahoma moving practices this week indoors (insert Brian Windhorst meme, “Now why would they do that?”). Official news will come out Saturday morning from Pete Thamel so we’ll need to pivot accordingly. Or not pivot at all too, because Texas is giving up just 12 FPPG to opposing QBs this season.
Injury Notes – QB John Mateer (questionable), WR Keontez Lewis (questionable)
Texas:
Top Play(s) – WR DeAndre Moore Jr. ($3,500) You’re not spending up for any of the high-salaried Texas players in this matchup with one of the best defenses in the country. Moore makes the most sense at his cost, now with 154 receiving yards combined over the last two games played.
Fade – RB Tre Wisner ($6,000) Wisner returned to the field against Florida last week and averaged just 1.4 YPC on eight attempts. If Texas can’t run on the Gators, it’s difficult to envision the Longhorns doing so against the No. 5 ranked run defense in the country. The Sooners also rank No. 1 in rush D success rate.
Bargain Bin – WR Emmett Mosley V ($3,000) The Stanford transfer got his feet wet returning to the field last week, catching two passes on five targets, playing 46% of the team’s snaps. We know Mosley has the ability, nabbing 48 receptions and six touchdowns with the Cardinal last season.
Pivot Play – QB Arch Manning ($8,300) Regardless of your opinions of Arch Manning the quarterback, and everyone seems to have one, he is the Texas offense at this point. For as ugly an offensive performance as it was against Florida, Manning still managed 20 fantasy points, tossing two touchdowns along with 15 rushing attempts as the team’s leading rusher. Oklahoma is No. 1 in pass D success rate and allowing just 6 FPPG to quarterback this season. It’s an elite group, but are the stats inflated when the best QB they’ve faced all year is freshman Bryce Underwood? I’d say yes.
Best of the Rest – WR Ryan Wingo ($6,500) GPP play as Wingo will have very little ownership at this pricing. In Oklahoma’s matchups with Michigan and Auburn, we’ve seen the boundary receivers have some level of success against this secondary, with Cam Coleman nabbing 88 yards with a TD, while Michigan’s Donaven McCulley also had 90+ yards vs. the Sooners. Wingo has led the team in targets in every game this season.
Injury Notes – RB CJ Baxter (doubtful)
Iowa State vs. Colorado
- Point-Spread: ISU -3
- O/U Total: 53
- Implied Score: ISU 28 – Col 25
- Weather: 74 degrees / 16% rain / 7 mph winds
Iowa State:
Top Play(s) – WR Brett Eskildsen ($3,400) Yet again for another slate the Iowa State receivers will be under the spotlight for a DFS slate. Eskildsen has been the most consistent wideout for the Cyclones, coming off his best game of the season with 105 yards and a touchdown on 11 targets. We could see an uptick in passing from Iowa State this week with Carson Hansen in concussion protocol.
Fade – TEs. The duo of Gabe Burkle and Benjamin Brahmer started the year off nicely but haven’t had the same impact of late with the emergence of the wide receivers lately. Low upside, low floor.
Bargain Bin – WR Chase Sowell ($3,300) What a rollercoaster last week for those that rostered Sowell. The depression of a first-half injury turned into jubilation in the second half as Sowell hit value, catching five passes and a touchdown on nine targets. As we said last week, Sowell is healthy and trending upwards now with 205 receiving yards in the last two games.
Pivot Play – RB Rocco Becht ($7,300) Strong projection of 24.9 fantasy points for just $7.3k in a matchup where Iowa State may be forced to throw more than normal potentially without the services of Carson Hansen. Colorado is allowing over 25 FPPG to quarterbacks this season and are 120th in pass D success rate. Colorado having an implied total of four touchdowns with a tight spread looks good for fantasy purposes in this game.
Best of the Rest – RB Abu Sama III ($4,300) We’ll find out Saturday if Hansen is available or not as he’s in concussion protocol this week. Sama looked good last week, getting the bulk of the carries vs. Cincinnati, finishing with 96 yards on 18 attempts. Colorado is only marginally better against the run than the pass, but not much. The Buffs are dead last in the conference in yards allowed on the ground and 97th in rush D success rate.
Injury Notes – RB Carson Hansen (questionable)
Colorado:
Top Play(s) – QB Kaidon Salter ($6,900) Iowa State struggles defending running quarterbacks, which will play into Salter’s hands on Saturday. Brendan Sorsby had 67 yards and a tuddy last week. Arkansas State’s Jaylen Raynor accumulated 83 yards and a touchdown on 16 attempts vs. the Cyclones. Iowa’s Mark Gronowski ran for 37 yards and a touchdown on 16 attempts. It’d be very surprising if Colorado does not run Salter 10-15 times this weekend.
Fade – WR Joseph Williams ($6,200) We’re simply going to fade the highest priced Colorado receiver every week. Last week, we got burned with WR Omarion Miller ($5,100) who had two receiving touchdowns. We’re fading Williams at this salary as the Tulsa transfer hasn’t scored more than 14 points in any game this season.
Bargain Bin – Colorado RBs. Colorado was already down two running backs and will be without a third with Dre’Lon Miller now doubtful on the Wednesday injury report. Iowa State gave up yards in bunches on the ground last week to both running backs for Cincinnati, with the Cyclones ranking 99th in rush D success rate. Ohio State transfer Dallan Hayden averaged 6.5 YPC last week on nine attempts and is min priced.
Best of the Rest – WR Sincere Brown ($3,100) Brown is fourth on the team in targets (16) and has had minimal impact the last two games with a combined 25 receiving yards. That said, he’s still on the field, playing over 90% of the offensive snaps in that two-game stretch and should get a small bump with Dre’Lon Miller and Hykeem Williams unlikely to play.
Injury Notes – WR Hykeem Williams (out), Dre’Lon Miller (doubtful), RB DeKalon Taylor (out), RB Simeon Price (out)
TCU vs. Kansas State
- Point-Spread: KSU -1.5
- O/U Total: 57.5
- Implied Score: KSU 29.5 – TCU 28
- Weather: 78 degrees / 7% rain / 12 mph winds
TCU:
Top Play(s) – WR Joseph Manjack IV ($4,500) Manjack has been the most trustworthy TCU receiver this season out of the slot, scoring double-digit fantasy points in each of the last four games, and targeted at least eight times in the last two weeks. That’s with Eric McAlister in the lineup last week as well. You’re not paying a hefty price at all for a 10-15 fantasy point receiver.
Fade – RB Jeremy Payne ($3,800) TCU tends to do some wonky things with their RB rotation, but Payne cannot be trusted in any capacity this week after not seeing a single snap against Colorado and Kevorian Barnes back in the lineup. He’s not listed on the injury report.
Bargain Bin – TE DJ Rogers ($3,600) Fourth on the team in targets (18), receptions (16) and routes run. Kansas State just allowed Baylor tight end Michael Trigg to have a season-high 155 yards on eight catches last week.
Pivot Play – RB Kevorian Barnes ($4,500) Barnes averaged just 3.0 yards per carry against a statistically worse run defense in Colorado a week ago, and TCU will be without its starting left tackle for the remainder of the season. Still, 16 carries in his first game back from injury is promising for Barnes’ outlook moving forward.
Best of the Rest – WR Eric McAlister ($6,800) High ceiling, low floor option but seems to be tracking well with five touchdowns in his last two games where he’s played all four quarters. WR Jordan Dwyer ($5,400) is a GPP play only, as his production has declined dramatically in the last three games, with a combined 100 total receiving yards. He’ll see less than 5% ownership but is a receiver that is on the field over 90% of the time every week. QB Josh Hoover ($8,200) is the high-floor option at quarterback, having scored 30 or more fantasy points in three of the last four games. Kansas State is an average pass defense, ranked 8th in the conference in yards allowed through the air and giving up 23 FPPG to quarterbacks.
Injury Notes – n/a
Kansas State:
Top Play(s) – QB Avery Johnson ($9,200) 59 fantasy points combined over the last two weeks for Johnson, who has gotten increased usage (finally) in the run game with 70+ yards on the ground in each of the previous two outings. Even more will fall on Johnon’s plate this week if Edwards is not available.
Fade – RBs. This one is easy for me to fade. Dylan Edwards had one good performance against UCF and then was banged up again vs. Baylor. According to the On3 report, when asked about Edwards’ status for this week, HC Chris Klieman didn’t seem to know what was up with his RB1. That murky status has me looking in another direction. Backup Joe Jackson was bad in his extended action earlier in the year with Edwards out of the lineup, so I’m bypassing this situation entirely.
Bargain Bin – TE Garrett Oakley ($3,700) Oakley had his best performance of the season last week with 54 yards and seven receptions on nine targets and now has scored a touchdown in each of the last two games. His increased involvement is a result of Jerand Bradley not being completely healthy, playing with a cast.
Pivot Play – WR Jayce Brown ($7,700) In his first game back, Brown was instantly a factor, scoring 24 fantasy points with over 100 yards receiving vs. Baylor. TCU gives up around 38 fantasy points per game combined to opposing WRs so stacking Brown and Tibbs together is possible, particularly if Jerand Bradley remains a non-factor.
Best of the Rest – WR Jaron Tibbs ($4,900) One could make the argument that Tibbs is the best value on the Kansas State side with his salary. The Purdue transfer is second on the team in targets (41) and receptions (27) and has been targeted 10 times in each of the last two games. Jayce Brown didn’t exactly finish the Baylor game at 100% health either, which could bode well for Tibbs this week.
Injury Notes – RB Dylan Edwards (out)
Virginia Tech vs. Georgia Tech
- Point-Spread: GT -14.5
- O/U Total: 55.5
- Implied Score: GT 35 – VT 20.5
- Weather: 73 degrees / 2% rain / 8 mph winds
Virginia Tech:
Top Play(s) – RB Marcellous Hawkins ($3,900) This play is dependent on the status of the oft-injured Terion Stewart who left last week’s contest with Wake Forest due to injury and is questionable for Saturday. Hawkins has been adequate this season, averaging over five yards a carry for the season, but found the end-zone just once as he’s split time most of the year, either with Stewart or Kyron Drones. The Georgia Tech run defense is 99th in success rate and dead last in the ACC in yards allowed on the ground.
Fade – WR Ayden Greene ($5,200) Take a look below at the passing stats under Kyron Drones. We’re not spending $5.2k on a Virginia Tech receiver on the road. Greene does lead the Hokies in targets (36) and routes run, but there’s a very low floor with limited upside given the passing game struggles for Virginia Tech.
Bargain Bin – WR Donavon Greene ($3,600) Why spend $5.2k on Ayden Greene when you could go dumpster diving with Donavon Greene, who has nearly identical numbers with a team-best two receiving touchdowns. WR Cameron Seldon ($3,100) is also an option, ranked second on the team with 18 receptions on 19 targets, and could see a few rushing attempts should Terion Stewart not play.
Pivot Play – QB Kyron Drones ($7,500) Drones will likely have to shoulder some of the rushing load if Terion Stewart is out, which he has done this season with double-digit rushing attempts in five of six games and a team-best four touchdowns. The issue is the forward pass for Drones and the Hokies. 125th in pass success rate. Drones averages 6.2 yards per attempt which is second-worst in the ACC. And in three of four matchups against P4 teams this season, Drones has failed to throw for 200 yards. We’d rather spend down to cut salary and have Beau Pribula or Kaidon Salter, but can’t dismiss the idea that Drones could have success with his legs against this porous run defense.
Injury Notes – RB Terion Stewart (questionable)
Georgia Tech:
Top Play(s) – QB Haynes King ($9,400) King is theCFFSite’s highest projected quarterback on the main slate, with Brendan Sorsby right behind him in projections with a $7.7k salary. Sounds like a perfect combination for a lineup if you ask me. Virginia Tech is giving up around 22 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season and King has had a few weeks off now to heal up to 100% health for the second half of the season.
Fade – n/a. All Georgia Tech starters are priced appropriately.
Bargain Bin – WR Isiah Canion ($3,100) My apologies Mr. Canion, I was not familiar with your game. I was caught by surprise to see that Canion actually leads all Georgia Tech receivers in routes run and has surpassed 40 or more receiving yards in each of the last four games, including a season-high 70 yards on eight targets vs. Wake Forest in Week 5. Sounds worthwhile to me for a $3.1k player.
Pivot Play – WR Eric Rivers ($4,200) or WR Malik Rutherford ($4,300) One could say that playing any Georgia Tech receiver in a DFS lineup is a pivot play because of infrequently Georgia Tech puts the ball in the air, ranking just 114th in the country in pass play rate. From a price and production standpoint, Canion makes the most sense of the three, but the numbers between the starting trio almost identical across the board to where Rivers and Rutherford make some sense in GPP. Rivers is the stronger option, averaging almost 13 yards per catch with a 14.5-yard aDOT.
Best of the Rest – RB Jamal Haynes ($6,800) I think it was about this time a calendar year ago when I told myself that I was done playing Jamal Haynes in DFS lineups because his production is simply unpredictable week to week. In fairness to Haynes, he’s getting great usage out of the backfield, on track to beat last year’s pace with 15 receptions on 18 targets through just five games. Virginia Tech is tied for second with several other ACC teams with 11 rushing touchdowns allowed this season. We just don’t know who is getting them between Haynes or King.
Injury Notes – n/a
North Carolina State vs. Notre Dame
- Point-Spread: ND -22.5
- O/U Total: 61.5
- Implied Score: ND 42 – NC St 19.5
- Weather: 69 degrees / 4% rain / 6 mph winds
North Carolina State:
Top Play(s) – WR Keenan Jackson ($3,000) It probably makes the most sense to just spend down for the cheapest WR for NC State with one of the lower implied team totals on the slate. Jackson leads all NC State pass-catchers in routes run this season and ranked third in targets (24) and fourth in receptions (17). We’re listing Jackson as the top play because of his salary, not because of the production and is not a priority.
Fade – RB Hollywood Smothers ($8,400) Outside of the Arkansas matchup where the Irish struggled to contain Taylen Green, the Irish have fared well against the run, limiting opponents to under four yards per carry. Notre Dame is allowing just 20 FPPG to opposing backfields this season. Smothers has over 50% of the team’s volume share, but this is a tough salary to rationalize spending up for in this particular matchup.
Bargain Bin – WR Noah Rogers ($3,300) or WR Wesley Grimes ($3,400) Rotational receivers. Rogers is third in routes run, and fifth in receptions (15). Grimes has the same number of targets as Rogers with 14 catches. In NC State’s last competitive matchup against Virginia Tech, Rogers was on the field significantly more than Grimes, fwiw.
Pivot Play – WR Terrell Anderson ($6,100) Really steep price to pay for what is essentially a wide receiver by committee offense, but Anderson does now lead all NC State wideouts in targets (26), receptions (21) and touchdowns (3). The NC State beat writer highlighted Anderson in his game preview, stating that he’s starting to separate from the pack.
Best of the Rest – TE Justin Joly ($6,400) Joly’s involvement has increased of late. In the first three games, the senior tight end averaged 30 YPG. That has risen to 55 YPG over the last three contests. In NC State’s last two ACC matchups, Joly was targeted 10 times in both games. QB CJ Bailey ($7,200) doesn’t make a ton of sense you could spend $100 more for Rocco Becht who has a much higher projection. The Notre Dame secondary has played much better in the last two weeks, intercepting opponents five times with zero TDs given up.
Injury Notes – n/a
Notre Dame:
Top Play(s) – RB Jeremiyah Love ($9,000) Not sure there will be a week where Love is not the top play for the Irish. NC State ranks 13th in the ACC in yards allowed per game on the ground. There’s a couple cheap RB options (Abu Sama sticks out), but there’s a surplus of cheap WRs where it’s easy to spend up for Love here. The other high-priced RBs don’t have great matchups either.
Fade – QB CJ Carr ($9,000) The projection not matching the salary is why Carr is a fade here. Could gain leverage over the field by fading Love and having Carr in your lineups, but that’s a huge risk, particularly when there’s a strong selection of mid-tier QB options.
Bargain Bin – WR Will Pauling ($3,200) Pauling’s role in the offense has continued its ascension the last several weeks, catching a touchdown in each of the last two games. Against Boise State last Saturday, Pauling played a season-high 71% of the offensive snaps.
Pivot Play – RB Jadarian Price ($6,600) Price is the best RB1B in the country – I refuse to call him a backup. Double-digit fantasy points in each of the last four games, averaging two yards per carry MORE than Jeremiyah Love and a team-best 7 touchdowns. Have to figure we see plenty of Price again Saturday with Notre Dame being a three-touchdown favorite.
Best of the Rest – WR Jordan Faison ($4,500) We’ll see WR Malachi Fields ($4,600) involved some, and Will Pauling’s role is definitely growing within the ND offense, but it’s clear as day that Faison is the preferred option to throw to for CJ Carr. 80+ receiving yards in each of the last three games. One Notre Dame receiver in every lineup you construct on Saturday makes some sense with how cheap they are.
Injury Notes – n/a
Indiana vs. Oregon
- Point-Spread: Oreg -7.5
- O/U Total: 53.5
- Implied Score: Oreg 30.5 – IU 23
- Weather: 54 degrees / 88% rain / 8 mph winds
Indiana:
Top Play(s) – WR Elijah Sarratt ($7,300) Sarratt’s production has been hit or miss this season, but his “misses” have been in blowout situations against Old Dominion and Indiana State. In B1G matchups the last two games, Sarratt has a combined 15 catches on 17 targets with three scores.
Fade – QB Fernando Mendoza ($8,000) We have two examples of Indiana facing top 10 opponents in the last calendar year. Against Ohio State last season, Kurtis Rourke threw 68 yards in a loss to the Buckeyes on the road. Against Notre Dame in the playoffs, Rourke scored 16 fantasy points. Mendoza is a better quarterback than Rourke, but this isn’t a scenario to play Mendoza with the appealing options around him at QB on the slate.
Bargain Bin – WR EJ Williams ($3,200) The Hoosiers throw to three players – Sarratt, Omar Cooper and Williams. That’s it. That trio accounts for 70% of the target share. Williams is a distant third with 14 catches on 19 targets but is on the field three quarters of the game. All you can ask for from a $3.2k option.
Pivot Play – Roman Hemby ($5,100) The numbers aren’t dominant for Oregon against the run, ranked 11th in the conference in yards allowed on the ground and just 66th in rush D success rate. But many of those yards came in garbage time when the game was already out of hand. Prime example against Northwestern up 27 points and a late 4th quarter missed tackle by the Ducks leads to a 79-yard garbage time TD. Curt Cignetti gave Hemby a lot of praise this week for how he ran against Iowa last Saturday with 86 yards on the ground.
Best of the Rest – WR Omar Cooper ($7,000) Cooper closer to a fade at this salary. He’s disappeared in the top 10 matchups previously with a grand total of 23 receiving yards in last year’s matchups with Ohio State and Notre Dame.
Injury Notes – n/a
Oregon:
Top Play(s) – WR Dakorien Moore ($4,900) Moore made Oregon history this week. He became the first freshman to speak to the media during Dan Lanning’s tenure. Not sure if that constitutes as history but let’s go with it. The freshman is coming off his best performance of the season in the toughest environment, catching seven passes for 89 yards on 10 targets vs. Penn State. His numbers are trending upwards with each passing week with Moore actually playing the entire game in competitive matchups. This salary makes Moore very enticing for this slate.
Fade – n/a. All Oregon starters, and some backups, are potential options.
Bargain Bin – RB Dierre Hill Jr. ($3,200) I’ll admit that I don’t have a good grip still on the Oregon RB rotation, and not sure anyone else does either, but I can spot a great running back when I see one. The true freshman is averaging over 10 yards per carry this season, also coming off his best performance of the year with 82 yards on 10 attempts in the win over Penn State. Don’t think we can discount RB Jayden Limar ($3,800) either, though I don’t view him in the same stratosphere talent-wise as Hill. Limar does lead all Oregon running backs in red zone attempts (7).
Pivot Play – QB Dante Moore ($8,700) Steady Eddy. 22 or more fantasy points in four of five starts this season, most notably 25 fantasy points on the road in that environment at night in Happy Valley. Moore is also tied with Jayden Limar for the team lead in red zone rushing attempts (7). He’s playable in any game setting or DFS slate.
Best of the Rest – Pass-Catchers. Kenyon Sadiq, Gary Bryant Jr. or Malik Benson are all options at their price points. While the running back rotation for the Ducks can deviate any given week, it appears the WR rotation is solidified with the trio of Benson, Bryant and Moore playing almost the entirety of the game against PSU.
Injury Notes – n/a
Mike’s DK Core Four:
- QB Brendan Sorsby, Cincinnati
- RB Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame
- WR Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State
- RB Abu Sama III, Iowa State (If Carson Hansen is out)
Mike’s FD Core Four:
- WR Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State
- QB Avery Johnson, Kansas State
- QB Behren Morton, Texas Tech
- RB Abu Sama III, Iowa State (If Carson Hansen is out)
