Georgia Southern @ South Alabama
Point-Spread: USA -3
O/U Total: 50.5
Weather: 80 degrees / 8% rain / 13 mph winds
Georgia Southern:
Immediate thought was to avoid the Georgia Southern side here, but we have a 23.75 implied total to work with and seeing projections closer to 26 points from other sources on the world wide web. The Eagles still run the ball plenty, ranking 14th nationally in run play percentage (62.8%), which is actually down from 66.5% which they averaged over the last three seasons. QB Justin Tomlin threw for 210 yards last week on 22 attempts, but tossed three interceptions and faces a stiff test in the South Alabama defense that has already tied last year’s totals in interceptions (7) and sacks (15). In a slate where we may not need to start two quarterbacks, I’ll have zero exposure with Tomlin on Thursday. Tomlin does average around eight carries a game, FWIW.
GSU’s raw rushing numbers aren’t bad – rank second in the Sun Belt at 253 YPG. The trouble here is we have no clue where the stats are coming from with Logan Wright, Gerald Green, J.D. King and Jalen White all seeing carries this season. Green was the player who looked to be emerging after his 186-yard outburst against Louisiana in Week 4 but has had just 10 attempts in the last two weeks. Why? Then it was Wright’s turn in Week 5 with 214 yards and two touchdowns against Arkansas State, followed by -1 yards last week against Troy. Southern ranks 112th in offensive success rate (37.8 percent), 92nd in rushing success rate (40.6 percent), and 94th in average line yards (2.44). This matchup does not favor the GSU running game against South Alabama who is first in the country in Defensive Line Yards and second in Rush Play Success Rate defensively.
Seeing as though GSU will likely be trailing, maybe we look to WR1 Khaleb Hood who is averaging around seven targets per game, including 15 against Arkansas earlier in the season in another matchup that the Eagles were down big. Hood gets some work on the ground too with nine carries on the year, and had a rushing TD last week. 6-foot-3 junior Jjay Mcafee had a season-high six targets against Troy last weekend. Utilityman Amare Jones averages around nine touches a contest, used both as a rusher and receiver, though hasn’t had a carry in the last two weeks with the depth GSU has in the backfield.
South Alabama:
Injuries will play a role in how we prioritize South Alabama players on Thursday with several key offensive playmakers in question. According to the team beat writer, receiver Caullin Lacy, running backs Kareem Walker and Terrion Avery, as well as tight end Lincoln Sefcik are all somewhere between questionable and probable, so we’ll be monitoring this closely leading up to game time. The Jags are putrid running the football this season, averaging just 3.31 yards per carry as a team and have had four different leading rushers at one point in the year. If Walker is g2g, he should start. If both Walker / Avery miss the contest, expect to see a combination of Bryan Hill and A.J. Phillips, who combined for 98 yards and two touchdowns last week against Texas State. Hill got the start, but it was Phillips who was far more effective in his first appearance of the season, rushing for 75 yards on 19 carries and both scores. USA will be without their starting center and are just 79th in Line Yards and 106th in Stuff Rate. Despite being cheap, I don’t think it’s imperative to find a way to roster anyone in the South Alabama backfield (depending on who is actually available).
The passing game has been a massive disappointment this season under new offensive coordinator Major Applewhite, but maybe we see a breakout of sorts this week. Georgia Southern ranks dead last in the country against the pass, allowing 338 yards per game through the air and are 100th in Pass Play Success Rate. The Eagles have allowed at least 249 passing yards in every game this season, meaning QB Jake Bentley is definitely in the pool of options. Georgia Southern is 12th in FPPG allowed to opposing QB1s this season at 31.9 and the spread is close enough here where South Alabama won’t be able to run the ball all game – which isn’t in their DNA anyways.
Ripple effect of Lacy being out would be that Cade Sutherland becomes a viable option in the slot at $3,300 despite just seven targets on the year. Jalen Tolbert has had an up-and-down season where the offensive inconsistencies and drops have plagued him, finally finding the end-zone for the first time this season last week against Texas State. Still leads the team with 30 percent of the target share, 25 receptions and an aDOT of 15.4. Jalen Wayne has seen his playing time increase over the course of the season now that Allen Dailey decided to leave the team, with 20 of his 30 targets coming in the last three weeks.
Navy @ Memphis
Point-Spread: Mem -10.5
O/U Total: 56
Weather: 81 degrees / 22% rain / 9 mph winds
Navy:
One reason for the improvements on offense in recent weeks has been the stability at the quarterback position where sophomore Tai Lavatai has taken every offensive snap over the last two games. This still isn’t the Navy offense of old under the likes of Keenan Reynolds or Malcolm Perry under center, but 26 points per game in the last three weeks is a drastic upgrade from where the Midshipmen were at the start of the year. The unfortunate part of running the triple-option as Navy does is the Middies can’t take advantage of a Memphis secondary that is giving up 316 passing yards per game on the season, ranked 128th in the country, and with 15 touchdowns to just one interception. As has been the case since the beginning of time seemingly, the Midshipmen are within the top five in the country in run play percentage (82 percent), which is actually down from 88 percent over the previous three seasons. As such, don’t even risk Navy receivers.
Backfield is a jumbled mess for Navy, and really no need to roster anyone back there with Lavatai eating up 34 percent of the carries the last two weeks. James Harris II sits atop the depth chart at fullback, though he’s been out-carried in each of the last two games by backup Isaac Ruoss. Snap counts are near even between the two. Top slot-back Carlinos Acie would be the only other Navy rusher that I’d give consideration to with 129 of his 138 rushing yards coming in the last three games. Former quarterback turned slot-back Chance Warren is the pass-catching option between the two, and the one Navy would utilize against this faulty Memphis secondary. Averages less than two targets a game so an extreme punt-play. The Tigers are far better this season at defending the fun, allowing just 3.89 YPC on the year, but have sprung leaks the last two weeks, allowing a combined 400 yards to Temple and Tulsa.
Memphis:
Several Memphis offensive players set numerous career highs last week against Tulsa, including quarterback Seth Henigan, who threw for 463 yards and two touchdowns but also completed just 59 percent of his throws and turned the ball over multiple times. Turnovers have plagued the Tigers all season, sitting tied for 121st in the country in turnover margin (-7), including five fumbles during this three-game slide. Running back Brandon Thomas was benched briefly after going through some fumble issues, but he had a bounce-back performance against Tulsa, finishing with 77 yards on the ground and two rushing scores. As we anticipated, Rodrigues Clark was relegated back to RB2 after subbing in for Thomas against Temple, nabbing just three attempts. When he’s not putting the ball on the ground, Thomas has dominated the touches in the Memphis backfield, accounting for 47 percent of the rushing volume so we don’t need to consider anyone here outside of the RB1. Navy is 47th nationally against the run, allowing 3.55 YPC, but are 69th in Rush Play Success Rate so they aren’t as good as the numbers would indicate. Six of the 14 rushing touchdowns Navy has allowed this season came in the first week of the season against Marshall.
The Henigan / Calvin Austin combo will probably see the highest ownership rates on the slate and for good reason with the QB1 averaging 48 passing attempts over the last two games. The cause for concern with Henigan is Memphis jumping out to an early lead – which they did against both UTSA and Temple – which could result in lower pass attempts. Navy good enough offensively to keep up on the road? Total has jumped up slightly already this week from 55.5 to 56. When Henigan takes to the air, its going to either Austin or tight end Sean Dykes who account for 53 percent of the target share and have 12 of the team’s 14 touchdowns. WR2 Javon Ivory has started to emerge of late after a lull in late September with eight receptions on 12 targets and two TDs in the last two weeks. Don’t see any other viable options in the Memphis passing tree beyond those three. Navy is 95th in Defensive Pass Play Success rate this season so tend to be more vulnerable through the air than on the ground.