West Virginia vs. Houston
Point-Spread: WVU -2.5
O/U Total: 51.5
Implied Score: WVU 27 – UH 24.5
Weather: 79 degrees / 6% rain / 9 mph winds
West Virginia:
Top Play(s) – RB CJ Donaldson ($6,300) Purely a volume play as Donaldson accounts for 56% of the volume share going to WVU running backs, finding the end-zone in four of his first five games. While the Mountaineers haven’t been overly successful at running the football, we knew this would be the strategy with Neal Brown now calling plays. Looking back to his days at Troy and even most recently with Leddie Brown, the HC will lean on his RB1 when he’s in charge of the play calls. Arguably the highest floor of any player on the slate, facing a very average Houston rush defense that allows 18 FPPG to RB1s.
Fade – RB Jaylen Anderson ($4,800) See below. For reasons unbeknownst to me right now, it doesn’t appear Jaylen Anderson played against TCU last week. And WVU might be turning the page in the backfield behind Donaldson.
Bargain Bin – RB Jaheim White ($4,000) Sounds like WVU might try to get the 4-star freshman more touches here as the season goes along after his performance against TCU with 46 rushing yards on five attempts. It’s no secret what the Mountaineers will attempt to do offensively, ranking 4th nationally in rush play percentage at 66.9%.
Pivot Play – WR Hudson Clement ($5,400) You’re taking a major risk in investing in any WVU receiver given what we said above about how much the Mountaineers run the football. The freshman receiver seems like the best option as of now, running the most routes of any receiver last time out against TCU with a team-high three receiving touchdowns – though all of them came in one game vs. Duquesne. Do not roster multiple WVU receivers, but you can consider one of Clement or WR Devin Carter ($4,900).
Best of the Rest – QB Garrett Greene ($6,900) Average Houston secondary, allowing close to 18 FPPG to opposing QB1s and rank 79th in pass D success rate. Our interest in Greene is because of his rushing ability more than what he can do through the air. TCU’s Chandler Morris found success on the ground in his matchup earlier in the year with the Cougars with 53 yards on 12 carries. TE Kole Taylor ($4,500) leads the team in targets, receptions, routes run, and second in touchdowns (2).
Injury Notes – n/a
Houston:
Top Play(s) – WR Samuel Brown ($6,900) The 4-1 touchdown advantage for WR Matthew Golden ($6,700) is why he currently has a higher projection, but Brown is the team’s WR1 in my eyes from watching the Cougars this season. Team leader in nearly every receiving category outside of TDs. Target share for Houston receivers is so top-heavy that it is feasible to have both Brown/Golden stacked in a lineup together. West Virginia grades out really well defending the pass but are allowing the 49th most fantasy points in the country to opposing WRs.
Fade – RB Brandon Campbell ($3,800) Has fallen out of favor with the coaching staff and is now down to RB4 on a team that doesn’t run the football all that effectively. Would not have any exposure here, even if entering 200+ lineups.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Not considering any Houston players below $5k.
Pivot Play – WR Joseph Manjack IV ($5,800) I wouldn’t start three Houston wide receivers in the same lineup, but two is feasible, with Manjack likely to see the lowest ownership of the trio. Same argument here as we mentioned above as the Manjack, Brown and Golden combine for 72% of the team’s target share. If Houston throws, it’s going in one of three directions.
Best of the Rest – QB Donovan Smith ($8,000) We haven’t seen as many designed runs from Smith the last three games as we did the first two weeks – sounds like an oblique injury was the reason why. Hopefully the bye week helped Smith heal up to use that 241-pound frame in the run game. As for throwing the football against WVU, the Mountaineers are ranked 3rd in the nation in pass D success rate, so I don’t expect Smith to light it up through the air against this defense. RB Parker Jenkins ($5,200) has taken over the RB1 role as a true freshman, reminding folks of a few years ago with Alton McCaskill. The Mountaineers also grade out well against the run, allowing just 11.9 FPPG to RB1s and 26th in rush D success rate. Only argument in favor of Tony Mathis Jr. ($5,300) is the revenge game factor, facing his former squad.
Injury Notes – n/a
SMU vs. East Carolina
Point-Spread: SMU -12.5
O/U Total: 51.5
Implied Score: SMU 32 – ECU 19.5
Weather: 68 degrees / 11% rain / 5 mph winds
SMU:
Top Play(s) – QB Preston Stone ($7,400) Stone is the one constant of the SMU offense that I have any confidence in giving us above-average to great fantasy production. A top 25 CFF quarterback entering the season, Stone hasn’t lived up to expectations, much of which due to a makeshift WR corps of failed P5 transfer that simply aren’t difference makers. That said, this is a potential get-right opportunity coming off the bye week against an ECU pass defense that is 112th in EPA per pass play and 84th in pass D success rate.
Fade – SMU Receivers. Ladies and Gentlemen who read this, I don’t get paid enough to analyze SMU wideouts. See above. This group is a disaster – hence why you’re seeing 7-8 different wideouts rotating in and out of the lineup each week. Seven different receivers between 6-12% target share. Play the SMU WR roulette and I guarantee you guess incorrectly.
Bargain Bin – TE RJ Maryland ($4,700) 12 targets in the last two games for the sophomore tight end who now leads the team in targets (23), touchdowns (2) and routes run. East Carolina is allowing the 34th most fantasy points in the country to opposing tight ends (9.9).
Pivot Play – WR Jake Bailey ($5,500) If I had confidence in one SMU receiver, it would be Bailey who is first in receptions (17) and second in routes run behind Maryland. SMU doesn’t have a WR1, but if they did, I would suggest them as a top play against the Pirates who are allowing 20.1 FPPG to opposing WR1s.
Best of the Rest – RB Jaylan Knighton ($6,100) We’ll see who plays and who doesn’t on Thursday (more on that below) but would imagine Knighton gets the start again after rushing for 150 yards and two scores against Charlotte in Week 5. Have not decided yet, to be honest, how much exposure of Knighton I want for the slate. On one hand, ECU ranks inside the top 20 nationally in several rush defense advanced metric. The Pirates are also allowing 20.7 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season. That’s also having faced Rasheen Ali, Blake Corum and Nate Noel who are currently top 25 fantasy running backs.
Injury Notes – RB Camar Wheaton ($5,500) TBD here for Wheaton as Rhett Lashlee isn’t giving us any clues, stating his hamstring is doing better, but doesn’t know if he’ll go yet or not. Lashlee went on to say that Wheaton has not been ruled out. A little more positive on RB LJ Johnson ($4,900) with Lashlee saying he had a pretty good week with the time off and hoping to get him back.
East Carolina:
Top Play(s) – WR Jaylen Johnson ($4,100) Our projected WR1 for ECU coming into the season has been plagued by poor quarterback play, but the volume is there, averaging 7.9 targets per game. Slot receivers have been ECU’s WR1 in four of the last five seasons, and the former Georgia transfer lines up inside 79.2% of the time.
Fade – n/a. At price, there really isn’t an all-out fade on the ECU side. Counterpoint – ECU is also a potential full-team fade with no player projected to score more than 13 fantasy points.
Bargain Bin – TE Shane Calhoun ($3,000) Targeted a season-high seven times against Rice in Week 5. SMU is allowing the 10th most fantasy points in the country to opposing tight ends this season. 55 career receptions on 75 targets with just one drop in four seasons.
Pivot Play – RB Javious Bond ($3,600) There are no quotes from the staff out there that I’ve seen affirming this notion, but I’d assume we see more of this freshman running back following the bye week. What’s there to lose with what looks like a rebuilding season for ECU? Bond has now averaged over eight yards a carry over the last three games, with a career-high 72 yards on seven attempts in the loss to Rice the last time out. Marlon Gunn returning this week downgrades Bond.
Best of the Rest – RB Rahjai Harris ($4,700) This staff’s allegiance on Harris is dumbfounding, but also makes perfect sense why the Pirates are 1-4 with the 12th ranked scoring offense in the AAC. Double-digit carries in each of the last three games with four rushing TDs in that span, but I’d expect a timeshare with Bond getting more reps and Gunn back in the lineup. SMU is 68th in fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs and 27th in rush D success rate, so I’d be fine with not rostering any ECU runners. QB Alex Flinn ($4,700) is our lowest projected quarterback of the four options on the slate, but he’s cheap, mobile and has a favorable game script with two weeks to prepare for his next opponent. SMU is allowing 19.3 FPPG to opposing QB1s. Colorado transfer WR Chase Sowell ($3,800) had a season-high in routes run and targets (10) vs. Rice in Week 5. Would assume ECU will trot out the same starting trio with Sowell, Johnson and WR Jsi Hatfield ($4,300) who leads the team at 14.4 YPC. Drops (19) have been a MAJOR issue for the ECU receivers.
Injury Notes – RB Marlon Gunn ($3,200) The projected RB1 for ECU this season has not played since Week 3 but is expected to be a go this week per the Pirates’ 247 beat writer. RB Gerald Green ($3,000) has not been fully healthy all season and will likely miss Thursday’s contest.
Tulane vs. Memphis
Point-Spread: Tul -4.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Implied Score: Tul 29.5 – Mem 25
Weather: 79 degrees / 32% rain / 12 mph winds
Tulane:
Top Play(s) – QB Michael Pratt ($7,800) Two clear-cut top-end QB options for this slate with Pratt and Shedeur – it will be a matter of filling in the correct pieces around those two. Must imagine the bye week did Pratt a world of good as he was definitely banged up entering the break. I like the 28-point projection here but will be a decent matchup with this Memphis secondary that is 45th in pass coverage per Pro Football Focus and allowing just 13.5 FPPG to opposing QBs. Brady Cook had the best fantasy output against the Tigers this season, only scoring 24 pts.
Fade – Backups. Barring injury, production is very centralized on the Tulane offense amongst the QB, RB and top three WRs.
Bargain Bin – WR Chris Brazzell II ($4,600) Talented 6-foot-4 redshirt freshman that is second on the team in targets (22) with a 14.5-yard aDOT. 10 of the team’s 11 receiving touchdowns and 60% of the target share come from just three Tulane receivers, one of which being Brazzell.
Pivot Play – RB Makhi Hughes ($5,500) CFF players were distraught when starting Hughes in his most favorable matchup of the season in Week 4 against Nicholls, only to see the freshman produce five fantasy points in the easy victory. Was very cautious the following week against UAB, thinking Tulane would again split carries. Not the case one bit as the staff relied on its freshman, finishing with 123 yards and two scores on 23 attempts. In Tulane’s last three competitive matchups, Hughes has received the bulk of the carries. As for the matchup, Memphis is allowing the 12th most fantasy points in the country to running backs.
Best of the Rest – WR Jha’Quan Jackson ($5,300) and/or WR Lawrence Keys III ($5,700) I do say and/or here because the target share is so centralized amongst the top three, but Memphis has been very good against the pass this season so might limit it to one Tulane wideout. Only Luther Burden has scored 15 or more fantasy points on this secondary.
Injury Notes – n/a
Memphis:
Top Play(s) – RB Blake Watson ($7,000) Memphis isn’t always that productive when running the football, but we’re always going to be heavily invested in an RB option that accounts for 60% of the volume share and is third in the nation in targets among running backs.
Fade – RB Jeyvon Ducker ($3,000) Nobody will consider playing Ducker here, but what a fall from grace for the former NIU transfer and 1,000-yard rusher. Ducker has only played in four games and appears to have fallen to fourth on the depth chart, at best, so I’d imagine some tough conversations are being had behind the scenes about his standing on the team. A transfer could be in the cards.
Bargain Bin – WR Kobe Drake ($3,500) WR3 is unsettled with Joseph Scates and Tauskie Dove both proving to be ineffective. Drake was the preferred option last time out against Boise State with 48 yards on three targets, playing 72% of his reps outside as Scates’ playing time took a small hit as a result.
Pivot Play – WR DeMeer Blankumsee ($4,400) I understand the salary discrepancy between Blankumsee and Roc Taylor ($5,600) but the former has been the target hog in the last two games with 19 of his 32 targets coming in that span. Taylor is not far behind that rate at 15 targets in the same span, but his YPC (15.3) and aDOT (12.7) make him the preferred option from a fantasy standpoint.
Best of the Rest – QB Seth Henigan ($7,500) Would have Henigan as my third option on the slate, but a distant third, and maybe even closer to a fade. Does have two weeks to prepare for this Tulane defense, but this secondary ranks inside the top 10 in fantasy points allowed to opposing QB1s. Jaxson Dart’s 21.78 fantasy points is the most points scored this season vs. the Tulane secondary. Most impressive performance was the last time out, holding UAB’s Jacob Zeno to just 9 fantasy points scored – Zeno was averaging over 30 FPPG this season.
Injury Notes – n/a
Fresno State vs. Utah State
Point-Spread: Fres -4.5
O/U Total: 57.5
Implied Score: Fres 31 – Utah St 26.5
Weather: 41 degrees / 0% rain / 8 mph winds
Fresno State:
Top Play(s) – RB Malik Sherrod ($5,300) A bit of a risky play here but have to think Fresno State will be running the football more with a backup QB likely starting on Friday. Three-straight weeks now that Sherrod has led the team in rushing attempts over Gilliam. Had it not been for a fall camp injury, Sherrod would have entered 2023 as the team’s RB1. Fresno really has not been effective running the football this season, and Gilliam was really only productive because of the heavy volume he was receiving. Despite that, this is a good matchup for Sherrod with Utah State allowing the 22nd most fantasy points to running backs this season.
Fade – RB Elijah Gilliam ($5,600) See above.
Bargain Bin – WR Mac Dalena ($4,000) Clear fourth option among the Fresno State receivers, but is second on the team in routes run and had his best performance of the year against Wyoming with 8-90-1 on 10 targets. His playing time did not fluctuate early in the year when Erik Brooks was healthy.
Pivot Play – WR Jalen Moss ($5,500) A hot commodity during the college fantasy offseason was sophomore Josiah Freeman who Jake Haener promoted as a breakout player at the NFL Scouting Combine. Well, Freeman was beaten out in fall camp by redshirt freshman Jalen Moss who seems to be gaining steam with every passing week. Three touchdowns in the last four games with multiple 100-yard receiving games. Not investing in multiple Fresno State receivers with a backup QB. Utah State has allowed just one receiver this season to score more than 14 fantasy points in a game this season.
Best of the Rest – WR Erik Brooks ($6,800) Brooks’ production has taken a massive hit the last three games, but a report came out that the senior receiver had missed some of last week’s practices with a walking boot on his foot. Did end up playing against Wyoming last Saturday but limited snaps. According to the Fresno State beat writer, Brooks was a full participant in practice. Does that mean we get the same Brooks from the first three games who was seeing double-digit targets? WR Jalen Gill ($6,200) was limited to just 24 yards last week with his most playing time of the season, following three straight games prior of scoring a touchdown.
Injury Notes – QB Mikey Keene ($8,300) Keene was not at practice on Tuesday and is doubtful for Friday. QB Logan Fife ($7,700) is an experienced backup that can move with a favorable matchup, so he’s not eliminated from the player pool, but unlikely that I’ll have much exposure with the high-end QB options in Pratt and Sanders.
Utah St:
Top Play(s) – WR Terrell Vaughn ($7,000) Aside from the one matchup two weeks ago against Connecticut where the Huskies had a clear plan of bracketing Vaughn all game long, the Utah State WR1 has lived up to expectations. Vaughn ranks 6th in the country in targets (62). As we’ve seen over the years with Deven Thompkins, Jonathan Adams and Omar Bayless, the WR1 under head coach Blake Anderson is undefeated.
Fade – RB Robert Briggs ($4,400) Seems evident that Briggs has been relegated to RB2 after a promising freshman season. The 5-foot-6 sophomore does not have game script working in his favor as a 5-point underdog. We’ll also do some box score scouting and it reveals that Briggs has had success against just two teams this season – Idaho State and a Colorado State team who allows the most fantasy points in the country to opposing RBs. Just 30 combined rushing yards in the three other games Briggs has played.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Not playing any Utah State players sub-$5k.
Pivot Play – WR Jalen Royals ($6,000) and/or Micah Davis ($5,100) Everyone ate against a horrid Colorado State defense, but just look at what these two have done recently. Four touchdowns in the last five games for Micah Davis who saw his most extended action of the season on Saturday. Royals has been a monster the last two games with over 320 receiving yards and five touchdowns. No other Utah State receiver caught a pass against Colorado State beyond the top three of Vaughn, Royals and Davis. Multiple Utah State receivers in a lineup is absolutely in play. Three is a stretch but could be a GPP winner with Utah State’s top heavy target share.
Best of the Rest – RB Davon Booth ($5,400) Booth has assumed the RB1 role over Robert Briggs, but similar to his counterpart, the Utah State running backs have ultimately been matchup-dependent. And this matchup with Fresno isn’t great. The Bulldogs are 15th in rush D success rate and allow just 10.4 FPPG to opposing RB1s.
Injury Notes – QB McCae Hillstead ($5,400) Ruled out Saturday so it will be QB Cooper Legas ($5,300) back in the saddle as QB1. While we like the Utah State wide receivers from a volume perspective as the Aggies are 26th in pass play percentage (54.7%), probably not the best matchup for Legas as Fresno allows just 11.5 FPPG to QB1s. Just five teams playing in Week 7 allow fewer fantasy points to starting quarterbacks.
Stanford vs. Colorado
Point-Spread: Col -11.5
O/U Total: 60.5
Implied Score: Col 36 – Stan 24.5
Weather: 42 degrees / 1% rain / 7 mph winds
Stanford:
Top Play(s) – WR Elic Ayomanor ($4,500) Team leader in every receiving category with a positive game script. Ayomanor has truly been the one constant on the Stanford offense this season, averaging just over five targets per game.
Fade – QB Justin Lamson ($4,800) This system under head coach Troy Taylor yielded positive results in his time at Sacramento State, specifically with the quarterback position. Last year’s starter Asher O’Hara (remember him?) averaged 23 FPPG with 219 carries on the ground from the quarterback position. We are seeing that in 2023 with Lamson who has 58 rushing attempts in four games, but even with that rushing volume, has failed to hit over 15 fantasy points in a single contest. This applies to Ben Yurosek below, but we just did not account for how much of a rebuild project Stanford would be when projecting the Cardinal in the preseason.
Bargain Bin – RB Sedrick Irvin ($3,000) Remember that viral video a few weeks ago of Michael Irvin and Deion Sanders hugging on Undisputed? They’ll be on opposite sides of the coin Friday where Irvin’s son could get the starting nod at running back for the Cardinal. While the youngest Irvin received just four carries for minimal yardage in the matchup with Oregon in Week 5, he was trending upward in the two games prior, averaging a combined 7.0 YPC, with 66 yards and a touchdown against Arizona in Week 4. That time in the year where Stanford needs to get a long look at some potential building blocks for 2024 and beyond with this first-year staff. The Buffs are allowing the 58th most fantasy points in the country to opposing running backs – actually better than I thought they’d be.
Pivot Play – TE Ben Yurosek ($5,000) A projected top five fantasy tight end in the preseason, Yurosek has not panned out in 2023, much of which due to inconsistent quarterback play. That said, this is an offensive system under Troy Taylor that featured the TE position heavily at Sacramento State, and Colorado is allowing the fourth most fantasy points in the country to opposing tight ends.
Best of the Rest – WR Tiger Bachmeier ($4,200) The 4-star freshman and brother of Hank Bachmeier won a starting job right out of the gates, ranking fourth on the team in both targets (16) and routes run. He’s an aforementioned building block Taylor and this staff will look to develop the rest of the season. WR Mudia Reuben ($4,300) is second in targets (21) and routes run, with a season-high four receptions against Oregon. Colorado is allowing the sixth most fantasy points in the country to opposing wide receivers. The issue is if Stanford quarterbacks can complete passes with any consistency.
Injury Notes – n/a
Colorado:
Top Play(s) – QB Shedeur Sanders ($9,500) Don’t overthink this one. Should be the player you have the most exposure to on the slate. Highest projection of any quarterback, facing a Stanford defense that is allowing the fourth most fantasy points in the country to quarterbacks. Should be a get-right opportunity after a few lackluster outings.
Fade – WR Tar’Vish Dawson ($3,500) The Auburn transfer seemed to be relegated to the 5th or 6th option in the passing game vs. Arizona State, playing all of three offensive snaps without a single target. Add in the possibility of Travis Hunter this week, and I don’t see a path to relevancy here.
Bargain Bin – WR Javon Antonio ($4,000) Antonio’s playing time was cut in half vs. the Sun Devils last week with the emergence of 4-star freshman Omarion Miller, but it was the fifth-year senior that was far more effective with 5-81-1 on five targets.
Pivot Play – RB Anthony Hankerson ($5,200) or RB Dylan Edwards ($6,200) Probably see at split backfield on Friday, potentially even three ways with Alton McCaskill being back in the mix, so wouldn’t go overboard here. But Stanford ranks 127th in rush D success rate and is 52nd in fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs. Combined 14 targets in the passing game between the two in the previous few weeks.
Best of the Rest – TE Michael Harrison ($4,500) Stanford allows the 14th most fantasy points in the country currently to tight ends, and Harrison has four touchdowns in the last four games. Targeted a season-high nine times last week. WR Xavier Weaver ($6,900) has been trending downward since injuring his ankle late in the Oregon matchup, now with just 46 receiving yards in the last two games. Not sure if that is the root cause or not for the poor results, but his snap counts have not changed so he’s healthy enough to play an entire game.
Injury Notes – WR Travis Hunter ($6,300) Deion Sanders said there is a “tremendous chance” that Hunter is available to play on Friday. Would be a major risk considering how often Hunter plays in his first game back as a double-digit favorite. Not to mention how often Hunter plays on offense to avoid taking additional hits like the dirty play that caused the injury against Colorado State. High risk, high reward. RB Alton McCaskill ($3,300) did not play against Arizona State, but Sanders told the media “You’re definitely gonna see him this week.”
