Louisiana Tech vs. Middle Tennessee
Point-Spread: MTSU -3
O/U Total: 54.5
Implied Score: MTSU 33 – LT 27.5
Weather: 69 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Louisiana Tech:
Top Play(s) – RB Tyre Shelton ($6,900) Nothing on the practice report about Marquis Crosby after he said out last week’s contest against Western Kentucky. We’re at the point where it’s a possible outcome that Marquis Crosby preserves his redshirt as the sophomore back has only played in four games this season. Good for Shelton who has now topped 100 yards rushing in three straight contests. Average MTSU rush defense that is 63rd in fantasy points allowed to running backs this season.
Fade – Anyone outside the Fab Five. Don’t think there is anyone worth rostering outside of the names mentioned in this writeup. I’m sure someone will attempt to roster TE Ryan Rivera ($3,200) after his 41 receiving yards last week, but this isn’t a system that often features the tight end in the passing game. I’d say stick to the primary five options most weeks for the Bulldogs.
Bargain Bin – WR Tru Edwards ($4,100) 50 receiving yards in each of the last two games for Edwards, averaging 15 yards per catch in the last three games combined. Played just 50% of the offensive snaps last week as he’ll rotate with WR Kyle Maxwell ($4,000) opposite Cyrus Allen.
Pivot Play – WR Cyrus Allen ($6,300) I just can’t quit you, Cyrus Allen. Just think about what his production would have been like last week had he not dropped two very catchable passes. Is on the field the same amount of time that WR Smoke Harris ($7,100) is, just hasn’t been able to convert on the opportunities he’s had. I will admit that this might be another Smoke we as four of the top five fantasy scoring WRs to face Middle Tennessee this season have all been slot receivers. I still believe stacking the two together in some GPP lineups is a differentiation that most won’t do.
Best of the Rest – QB Jack Turner ($5,900) Vote of confidence from the coaching staff calling Turner the Louisiana Tech QB1 currently and moving forward. Practice report out of Ruston says that Hank Bachmeier is getting close to full health but has not taken a single first-team practice rep. I’d call it very unlikely Bachmeier plays but doesn’t increase my interest whatsoever in Turner after watching that quarterbacking display a week ago. The ONLY reason Turner is not a fade is the Middle Tennessee secondary that is allowing the third most fantasy points to quarterbacks in all of college football.
Injury Notes – QB Hank Bachmeier ($6,300) See above. Unlikely he plays barring injury to QB1.
Middle Tennessee:
Top Play(s) – WR Elijah Metcalf ($6,300) Metcalf has emerged as MTSU’s new version of Ty Lee or Richie James from year’s past. OK, that might be a bit overboard in the comparison, but Metcalf’s numbers are trending upwards in a big way with 30 of his 43 total targets coming in the last three weeks with three touchdowns. While this is a stingy Louisiana Tech secondary, they also rank 128th in pass D explosiveness with 14 passing plays of 25 yards or more allowed.
Fade – RB Jaiden Credle ($5,600) Frank Peasant’s return to the lineup has relegated NIU transfer Jaiden Credle back to RB2 status, playing just 27% of the offensive snaps last week against Jacksonville State. After being targeted seven times in Week 5, we thought that perhaps even if Credle was the backup, he would start to see consistent work in the passing game, but that didn’t transpire either with just two targets against the Gamecocks.
Bargain Bin – DJ England-Chisolm ($4,100) Call DJ England-Chisolm the G5 version of Notre Dame’s Tobias Merriweather. On the field nearly the entire game, running a ton of routes, but mostly for cardio purposes and a 14% drop rate which is highest on the team despite just 22 targets for the season. That said, he’s still on the field over 58% of the time.
Pivot Play – RB Frank Peasant ($5,800) Louisiana Tech is a below average rush defense having allowed four different running backs this season to score 18 or more fantasy points against them. If Peasant doesn’t make it work on the ground, he’s always a threat catching passes coming out of the backfield, targeted six times last week.
Best of the Rest – QB Nick Vattiato ($7,000) On one hand you have Vattiato taking on the best secondary, on paper, in Conference USA with Louisiana Tech allowing just 172 yards per game through the air. Advanced metrics paint a similar picture with the Bulldogs ranking 8th in pass D success rate. Then you look at the list of quarterbacks faced, and you can see why the numbers are what they are, facing the likes of FIU, UTEP, Northwestern State and Nebraska. Vattiato was also sacked eight times last week so he could rack up the negative yardage on the ground should the Middle Tennessee OL struggle again. An established top four at receiver have emerged for MTSU with Metcalf, England-Chisolm, WR Holden Willis ($$6,000) and WR Justin Olson ($5,600) who combined for 27 of the 43 targets against JSU, all playing at least 67% of the offensive snaps. Two max for MTSU receivers in the same lineup.
Injury Notes – n/a
Liberty vs. Jacksonville State
Point-Spread: Lib -6
O/U Total: 56
Implied Score: Lib 31 – Jax St 25
Weather: 74 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Liberty:
Top Play(s) – QB Kaidon Salter ($8,600) Salter may not show up in optimal lineups at other sites, but I’m taking a QB on a 3-game slate with a 30-point projection and 50-point upside. Even with a below average performance last week against Sam Houston State, Salter still managed two touchdowns and over 23 fantasy points scored. Jacksonville State is only allowing 13.4 FPPG to opposing QBs this season and ranked 37th in pass D success rate, so this is not a gimme matchup by any stretch. The best QB faced all season for Jacksonville State is also Nick Vattiato, which plays a major role as to why the numbers on paper look so good.
Fade – WR Elijah Smoot ($4,100) This is assuming Noah Frith is back and healthy for Tuesday. Smoot did play 79% of the offensive snaps last week vs. Sam Houston State, but that likely gets cut in half with Frith back in the lineup.
Bargain Bin – TE Bentley Hanshaw ($4,300) Not playing anyone sub-$4k on the Flames roster. Hanshaw leads all Liberty skill position players in snaps played this season, while third on the team in receptions (9) and tied for first in touchdowns (3). Jacksonville State is allowing 7.9 FPPG to opposing tight ends.
Pivot Play – WR Treon Sibley ($5,200) Most of the attention for Liberty WRs will go to WR CJ Daniels ($5,600), and for good reason, but I like what Sibley has done this year in somewhat limited action as he splits snaps in the slot with Aaron Bedgood. 76% catch rate on his 17 targets, tied for second on the team, averaging over 24 yards per reception. Slot receivers have absolutely DOMINATED Jacksonville State this season with Jared Brown, Elijah Metcalf and Noah Smith all scoring over 27 fantasy points in their matchup. In total, five receivers have scored 20 or more fantasy points against JSU this season, so either Sibley or Daniels need to be in your lineup tonight.
Best of the Rest – RB Quinton Cooley ($6,800) Cooley did leave last week’s contest with an injury and missed all of the third quarter but did return in the 4th so we’ll assume he’s ready to go here. If Lucas gets ruled out, Cooley shoots up the leaderboard as far as interest level, but this is a 50-50 split backfield when the two are healthy. Jacksonville State ranks No. 1 in rush defense in Conference USA, though did allow 27.2 fpts to Sam Houston’s John Gentry. Took him 30 carries to get there, though, along with 85 yards receiving.
Injury Notes – WR Noah Frith ($4,000) Frith did not play against Sam Houston last Thursday as he was injured in practice. HC Jamey Chadwell said that Frith probably could have played if he needed to, so we will likely see him out there today. RB Billy Lucas ($5,700) is the big question mark on the slate after not playing a single snap against Sam Houston. Very little clarity from Chadwell’s comments, stating “hopefully Billy Lucas comes back this week, he was a guy that was missed.”
Jacksonville State:
Top Play(s) – RB Malik Jackson ($7,400) Top three running backs on the slate are pretty set in stone, with Jackson being one as he’s dominating the touch counts among Jacksonville State RBs. As for the matchup with Liberty…not great. The Flames are allowing just 9.0 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season, though they are ranked 67th in rush D Success rate and 99th in EPA per run play. Tyre Shelton and Nate Noel are locks. If you’re diversifying your RBs, Jackson is the one amongst the top three to change out.
Fade – RB Anwar Lewis ($4,300) Lewis was projected by many to the team’s opening day starter, but injury forced him to miss the first four games. Now healthy, he’s firmly slotted as the No. 2 back behind Jackson, averaging under three yards a carry the last two games. Not the matchup to want an RB2 as a near-touchdown underdog.
Bargain Bin – WR Jamayre Joiner ($3,200) We saw last week Joiner, the former Arizona transfer, dip into WR Quinton Lane’s ($6,000) playing time, as the latter was targeted just once on 18 routes run. Lane hasn’t been particularly effective the last two weeks, so you wonder if the coaching staff is getting looks at other options. I’d rather roll with Joiner over Lane for cost savings (though my preference is neither in a lineup).
Pivot Play – WR Perry Carter ($5,300) Roll with the hot hand, right? Carter has been Jax State’s most effective receiver with 70+ receiving yards in three of the last four games. Eight receivers have scored double-digit fantasy points against the Flames secondary this season.
Best of the Rest – QB Logan Smothers ($5,800) No official update that I’ve seen as to who the starter will be for Tuesday so we do have a projection for Smothers, but I’m assuming the Gamecocks will go with QB Zion Webb ($5,600) getting the nod after coming on in relief last week and performing well. As for the matchup, Liberty is 34th in pass D success rate and giving up just 15.7 FPPG to opposing QB1s. The starter here, whoever it is, can run and Rich Rod does design a lot of QB rush plays, so they’re not eliminated from the conversation, but we need clarity to who that’ll be. And who’s to say both don’t play. TE Sean Brown ($4,500), who is on some NFL Draft radars that I’ve seen, had his best performance of the year with 103 yards and a TD last week, now with consecutive games finding the end-zone. Liberty is allowing just 3.4 FPPG to tight ends but haven’t played a single team that utilizes the position often in the passing game.
Injury Notes – n/a
Coastal Carolina vs. Appalachian State
Point-Spread: App St -6
O/U Total: 61
Implied Score: App St 33.5 – CC 27.5
Weather: 53 degrees / 0% rain / 9 mph winds
Coastal Carolina:
Top Play(s) – WR Sam Pinckney ($5,500) and/or Jared Brown ($5,700) Will never understand the DK algorithm and how it decides that the two Coastal receivers should be cheaper than Quinton Lane. Regardless, you need to have at least one, if not both in your lineup today with the top-heavy target share as the duo accounts for over 50% and four of the team’s seven receiving TDs.
Fade – WR Jameson Tucker ($4,600) Full disclosure, haven’t watched much at all of Coastal this season outside of the opener against UCLA, so I don’t know much about Jameson Tucker aside from that he caught a touchdown against Georgia State in Week 4, before running just six routes last time out against Georgia Southern. Tyson Mobley ($4,100) is the starter over Tucker when healthy.
Bargain Bin – See above on Mobley. Serviceable WR3 that caught 40 passes on 55 targets for five touchdowns a year ago.
Pivot Play – RB Braydon Bennett ($5,500) We mentioned above there is a solidified top three options at RB for the slate. If you swap out Jackson (or any of them for that matter), Bennett is next man up after rushing for 114 yards on 15 attempts in the loss to Georgia Southern. Matchup is favorable against an Appalachian State defense that is surprisingly atrocious against the run, allowing 24 FPPG and ranks 130th in rush D success rate.
Best of the Rest – QB Grayson McCall ($6,000) Season has transpired about the way I expected at least with the uninspiring hire of former NC State OC Tim Beck who was on the verge of getting fired with the Wolfpack. That rant aside, McCall is still an option at this pricing as he’s a dual-threat option with two top-tier G5 receivers to throw to. Numbers are undoubtedly down, though, ranking 76th in pass play success rate and having surpassed 20 fantasy points just once in five games. App State ranks far better defending the pass – allowing 17.7 FPPG to opposing QB1s and 14th in EPA/ per pass play defensively.
Injury Notes – RB Reese White ($5,100) and CJ Beasley ($4,200) Both are questionable for Tuesday with head coach Tim Beck deeming Beasley a true game-time decision. Last week’s performance should have solidified Bennett’s spot atop the depth chart in my eyes, but we’ve seen this be a 3-way split under the previous regime and with the new staff with Beck. Bennett’s value obviously skyrockets if neither player is available.
Appalachian State:
Top Play(s) – RB Nate Noel ($6,500) Will be the highest owned player on the slate, and should have the highest salary on DK. Coastal is allowing 18.8 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season and rank in the bottom third nationally in all rush defense advanced metrics. We questioned in the offseason whether Nate Noel could handle 20 carries a game in 2023 at his 190-pound stature and he’s telling all the doubters to keep their mouths shut after his performances in the first five games. Noel now leads the country (!!!) at 24.6 rush attempts per game.
Fade – Backup RBs. See underlined portion above.
Bargain Bin – WR Dalton Stroman ($3,500) I still stand by my stance that Stroman is the most physically gifted WR on Appalachian State, even if the numbers don’t really prove that. Just fourth on the team in targets but averages 17.2 YPC and a 21-yard aDOT. Big-play ability.
Pivot Play – WR Christan Horn ($5,900) DFS players will likely look to save costs if rostering an App State receiver, looking specifically at WR Kaeden Robinson ($4,700) who converted on all 10 of his targets last week for 112 yards and a touchdown. Horn had an exceptional game in his own right, hitting 124 yards with two scores in the win over ULM. Horn is just third on the team in targets (23) but is second in routes run and tied for the team lead in touchdowns. App State’s defense is that bad this season to where you could roster multiple Mountaineer receivers.
Best of the Rest – QB Joey Aguilar ($7,500) We’ll just have to do our double checks in pregame to assure that Aguilar is the starter with Ryan Burger back at practice. At least two passing touchdowns in all but one game this season for Aguilar, facing a Coastal secondary that allows 18.7 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. I think he’ll see low ownership among the QB options. WR Dashaun Davis ($5,100) is second on the team in targets (25) but a distant third among receivers in routes run. TE Eli Wilson ($3,200) is tied for second on the team in touchdowns (2) and third in routes run. Just one tight end this season has scored more than four fantasy points against the Chants.
Injury Notes – QB Ryan Burger ($7,600) Burger returned to practice this week but would be a shocker if he got the start on Tuesday. Burger was the favorite coming out of fall camp until the injuries set in. I think in a week when Appalachian State plays next we’ll have more questions as to who will be under center. Not today.
