Florida State vs. Duke
Point-Spread: Duke -3.5
O/U Total: 42.5
Implied Score: Duke 23 – FSU 19.5
Weather: 59 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
Florida State:
Top Play(s) – RB Lawrance Toafili ($4,500) Toafili saw the most carries for FSU for the third straight game following the Roydell Williams injury. The Blue Devils allow quite a bit of fantasy points too, to opposing running backs, with five players scoring 19 or more points this season. Three of which are very pedestrian fantasy running backs as well in Cam Porter, Jaiden Credle and Cam Edwards.
Fade – QB Brock Glenn ($5,900) Rule No. 1 this season is don’t play Florida State quarterbacks. And Rule No. 2 is don’t play quarterbacks in a potential timeshare. We only saw Brock Glenn vs. Clemson, but the rumor mill is churning again this week that we could see freshman Luke Kromenhoek get a few series depending how the game flows.
Bargain Bin – TE Landen Thomas ($3,400) Not surprising that in a lost season, Florida State is starting to play its freshmen more and more. Thomas played a season-high 57% of the snaps vs. Clemson in Week 6, finally surpassing Kyle Morlock who has been ineffective in 2024. Thomas had eight targets against the Tigers.
Pivot Play – WR Malik Benson ($4,200) Benson continues to lead the team in routes run, targets (32) and is tied atop the leaderboard with 18 receptions.
Best of the Rest – WR Ja’Khi Douglas ($4,600) and WR Hykeem Williams ($3,300) The top trio of Benson, Douglas and Williams have separated themselves from the pack, all playing over 64% of the team’s snaps against Clemson in Week 6. Mixed bag of results from the group, but if trying to roster an FSU receiver, it would be one of those three.
Injury Notes – n/a
Duke:
Top Play(s) – RB Star Thomas ($5,700) Thomas is listed by default as there are no strong options on the Duke side. Florida State is hit or miss against the run, ranking 63rd in success rate but have allowed over 200 yards on the ground in each of its last two games. Five running backs have scored 17 or more fantasy points against the Seminoles this season. That said, Thomas had his lowest output of the season last time out vs. Georgia Tech, and opening day starter Jaquez Moore could return from injury.
Fade – WR Javon Harvey ($3,400) The Old Dominion transfer can barely see the field, playing just 24% of the snaps vs. Georgia Tech in Week 6 with one target.
Bargain Bin – TE Nicky Dalmolin ($3,000) Just three receptions in the last two weeks for Dalmolin but has been on the field over 90% of the time in both games, and has already shown us this season he has ability with 100 yards and two scores in Week 4 vs. Middle Tennessee. FSU is giving up 11.1 FPPG to opposing tight ends.
Pivot Play – WR Jordan Moore ($6,500) Moore’s production has taken a hit lately as Murphy’s numbers have fallen. But Moore is one of the true slate-breaking potential wide receivers on the slate. For as bad as Florida State has been against the pass, they don’t allow a ton of fantasy points to receivers. Just one (Antonio Williams) has scored more than 15 fantasy points vs. the Seminoles this season. If not Moore, WR Eli Pancol ($4,800) is the next best option with a team-high five receiving touchdowns and second on the team in targets.
Best of the Rest – QB Maalik Murphy ($7,600) The book seems to be out on Murphy who has trended downwards since Week 1, with his passing numbers declining with each passing week and failing to score 20 fantasy points since mid-September. That said, FSU ranks 110th in pass D success rate and 122nd in EPA per pass play defensively. Maybe we week of helps Murphy recalibrate in preparation of facing a woeful secondary.
Injury Notes – RB Jaquez Moore ($4,800) Was trending towards playing two weeks ago before Duke’s bye week. Another week or so of rest could result in Moore’s return to the lineup.
Oregon vs. Purdue
Point-Spread: Oreg -27
O/U Total: 60
Implied Score: Oreg 43.5 – Purd 16.5
Weather: 58 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
Oregon:
Top Play(s) – RB Jordan James ($7,500) I’d like to say this is a week to sit Jordan James given the blowout that is likely to ensure, but Oregon in the four games that Oregon has won by double-digits this season, the RB1 has scored at least 22 fantasy points in each contest. Five running backs have scored 20 or more fantasy points vs. Purdue this season, and a combined 60 points allowed the past two games to Josh McCray and Tawee Walker.
Fade – WR Traeshon Holden ($5,400) Wild that Holden was the second player last weekend to be ejected for spitting in college football. And then had AI write his public apology on social media. No official announcement as of Wednesday writing this, but if Oregon were to suspend Holden for a quarter or a half, this would be the game to do it against lowly Purdue.
Bargain Bin – TE Terrance Ferguson ($4,000) Third on the team in targets (29), receptions (20), receiving yards and fourth in routes run. Probably time that Ferguson finds the end-zone for the first time this season vs. the Boilermakers. WR Justius Lowe ($6,400) came on in place of Holden in the Ohio State game and would start if he were to be suspended for any amount of time.
Pivot Play – WR Evan Stewart ($5,500) Finally we saw the Evan Stewart that was expected when he was a first and second round draft pick CFF drafts this offseason. Season-highs with 149 yards on seven receptions against an elite Ohio State secondary. Purdue is NOT elite, and Stewart could be more of a factor should Holden be disciplined this week by the team.
Best of the Rest – QB Dillon Gabriel ($9,600) and WR Tez Johnson ($7,900) Best QB / WR duo on the slate, and you didn’t need me to tell you that. Not surprisingly, Purdue gives up a lot of points to both positions. QBs are averaging 28.3 FPPG this season vs. the Boilermakers. Five receivers have scored at least 16 fantasy points against Purdue, including slot man Trech Kekahuna from Wisconsin who had a season-best 31 fantasy points two weeks ago. Tez Johnson also plays the slot, if you didn’t know.
Injury Notes – n/a
Purdue:
Top Play(s) – TE Max Klare ($4,700) Season-highs from Klare against Illinois who converted on all six of his targets for 133 yards. We’re most interested in the pass-catchers on the Purdue side if forced to choose an option, and Klare is the best of the bunch.
Fade – QB Ryan Browne ($6,400) I need multiple pieces of evidence before buying into a quarterback facing a top two team in the country. Although, the one piece of evidence is pretty damn good from Browne, who compiled over 400 yards of total offense and three touchdowns in the overtime loss to Illinois. We’ll always be mildly interested in a quarterback that ran for 129 yards on 18 attempts, but again, different level of competition this week with the Ducks.
Bargain Bin – WR Jahmal Edrine ($4,300) The expected WR1 for the Boilermakers in the preseason found the end-zone for the first time vs. Illinois last Saturday, playing 82% of the offensive snaps. He’s capable of a big play or two, averaging over 17 yards per catch in 2024.
Pivot Play – RB Devin Mockobee ($5,000) I might be less interested in Mockobee than I am Ryan Browne, but the Oregon run defense is the lesser of the two defensive components for the Ducks. Oregon is 77th in rush D success rate and allowing 24 FPPG to opposing backfields.
Best of the Rest – WR Jaron Tibbs ($4,000) Not all that productive, averaging 2.8 receptions on 3.6 targets per game in 2024, but Tibbs is on the field a lot, playing over 80% of snaps the last three weeks. Second on the team in targets and receptions.
Injury Notes – RB Malik Sherrod ($5,100)
Oklahoma State vs. BYU
Point-Spread: BYU -9.5
O/U Total: 53.5
Implied Score: BYU 31.5 – Ok St 22
Weather: 47 degrees / 61% rain / 7 mph winds
Oklahoma State:
Top Play(s) – WR De’Zhaun Stribling ($6,600) The BYU secondary is one of the best in the Big 12, so playing any of the Oklahoma State passing game components is a risk. But Stribling has been the team’s best fantasy receiver, scoring four touchdowns in the last four games. We’ve seen receivers find some success against the Cougars this season, where three Baylor wideouts scored 16 or more fantasy points vs. BYU a few weeks ago.
Fade – QB Alan Bowman ($7,800) While no official announcement, we’ve already made the switch from Bowman to Garrett Rangel this week as there were some rumors that the former QB1 had quit the team. That turned out to be a false rumor, unsurprisingly, but the two quarterbacks are sharing reps in practice. We believe Rangel gets the nod.
Bargain Bin – n/a – Nobody below $5.3k unless there’s an injury note that pops up pregame.
Pivot Play – RB Ollie Gordon ($8,500) I was watching the West Virginia game where Ollie Gordon suffered the injury and remember the TV announcer speculating that it might be the last time we see the Oklahoma State RB1 this season. No news is good news? I haven’t seen any updates as far as Gordon’s playing status so we’re proceeding under the impression he’s good to go. BYU doesn’t allow many fantasy points to running backs, but the Cougars are just ok defending the run, ranking 69th in EPA per rush play defensively.
Best of the Rest – WRs Brennan Presley ($6,900) and / or WR Rashod Owens ($5,300) As we alluded to above, we’ve seen prior where wide receivers have success against this secondary despite the numbers, and the pass-happy game script for Baylor in their matchup with BYU allowed multiple receivers to score 16 or more fantasy points. Top three combine for 65% of the target share and 11 of the 14 receiving touchdowns.
Injury Notes – n/a
BYU:
Top Play(s) – RB LJ Martin ($5,100) Martin made his return last week vs. Arizona and found the end-zone twice, both rushing and receiving. We’d imagine his workload will steadily increase with each passing week since coming back from injury. And this is as good a matchup as it gets as Oklahoma State is 131st in rush D success rate and giving up 33 FPPG to opposing backfields.
Fade – RB Miles Davis ($3,700) Davis had a huge 37-yard run in the Week 2 matchup with SMU that clinched the game for the Cougars, but that came with LJ Martin out of the lineup as he was injured earlier in the contest. Davis played zero snaps with Martin back from injury.
Bargain Bin – RB Hinkley Ropati ($3,900) We prefer Martin over Ropati because he’s the better player, but the latter played more last week against Arizona, rushing for 65 yards on nine attempts with 57% of the snaps. To repeat, Oklahoma State is the WORST rush defense in the country among P4 teams. If BYU gets big, they’re pounding the rock.
Pivot Play – QB Jake Retzlaff ($7,400) Shortage of QBs on this slate outside of Gabriel so a dual-threat like Retzlaff is absolutely in play against an Oklahoma State defense that is giving up 24.9 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. Those QBs are scoring around 22% above their seasonal averages when facing the Cowboys.
Best of the Rest – WRs Darius Lassiter ($5,100) or WR Chase Roberts ($5,800) 44% of the team’s targets and six of the 15 receiving touchdowns for BYU have come from Lassiter and Roberts who are the established top two, playing over 70% of the team’s offensive snaps. TE Keanu Hill ($3,700) is third on the team in targets (21), facing a defense that allows 12.3 FPPG to opposing tight ends.
Injury Notes – WR Kody Epps ($3,600) Epps has not played in two weeks and deemed questionable.
Fresno State vs. Nevada
Point-Spread: Fres St -2.5
O/U Total: 50.5
Implied Score: Fres St 26.5 – Nev 24
Weather: 46 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Fresno State:
Top Play(s) – RB Elijah Gilliam ($4,700) Gilliam will get the nod again in place of the injured Malik Sherrod on Friday after rushing for 120 yards on 20 attempts in the loss to Washington State. Nevada’s run defense is trending downward fast, now ranked 110th in success rate after allowing 150+ and three scores to Oregon State’s Anthony Hankerson last weekend.
Fade – n/a. All healthy Fresno State players are priced appropriately.
Bargain Bin – WR Raylen Sharpe ($4,900) Sharpe has emerged as the team’s WR1 over the last few weeks with 35 targets in the last four games. One of the better bargains on the slate considering he’s cheaper than Dalena and Moss, yet more productive than both.
Pivot Play – WR Mac Dalena ($6,000) or WR Jalen Moss ($5,000) I don’t know that stacking multiple Fresno State receivers in a lineup together is the optimal play, but we do know that the Bulldogs are lacking depth at the position. Josiah Freeman will be out multiple games, WR5 Chedon James may redshirt and WR6 Tim Grear only played 16 snaps vs. Wazzu. You’ll see Dalena, Moss and Sharpe on the field for the entirety of the game in my opinion.
Best of the Rest – QB Mikey Keene ($6,600) We broke our rule last week and touted Mikey Keene. As per usual, Keene threw a lot of passes and did not produce many fantasy points as is customary. Nevada is 105th in pass D success rate, so I don’t think Keene can be ruled out, but the Wolfpack are allowing just 16.7 FPPG to quarterbacks this season. Which is basically Keene’s median performance.
Injury Notes – RB Malik Sherrod and WR Josiah Freeman will not play on Friday, and neither player is expected back anytime soon.
Nevada:
Top Play(s) – QB Brendon Lewis ($8,000) Kudos to Lewis for turning his collegiate career around, now averaging over 65% completion percentage with nine passing touchdowns. And now, Lewis is one of the better fantasy quarterbacks around, scoring over 20 fantasy points in all but one game this season. Nevada is better against the run than the pass, allowing 19.4 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. Lewis’ rushing ability makes him an option every week.
Fade – Sean Dollars ($4,600) Not sure why they continue to price Dollars this way, but he hasn’t played a single snap in two games. Wondering if he’s preserving the redshirt to enter the portal again.
Bargain Bin – WR Marcus Bellon ($4,000 The UTEP transfer is third on the team in targets (23), receptions (20) and routes run.
Pivot Play – RB Savion Red ($5,800) I still remember back to Week 0 vs. SMU when the broadcast said that the coaching staff believes Red to be one of the best running backs in the Mountain West. He looked it vs. Oregon State with 137 yards and four touchdowns. We need to see more consistency with his rushing volume, though, as the former Texas transfer averaged just 11 touches per game in the first six contests.
Best of the Rest – WR Cortez Braham ($4,100) or WR Jaden Smith ($5,200) Fine with either receiver as an option because Nevada does not rotate at wide receiver. Smith has been the hot hand of late with three touchdowns in the last three games, though he was shut out vs. Oregon State as the Wolfpack completed just five passes. Braham still leads the team in receptions and targets. Behind the top three receivers, no other wideout has more than a single catch all year.
Injury Notes – n/a
