Louisville vs. Miami
- Point-Spread: Mia -13.5
- O/U Total: 52.5
- Implied Score: Mia 33 – UL 19.5
- Weather: 78 degrees / 1% rain /14 mph winds
Louisville:
Top Play(s) – WR Chris Bell ($6,900) After a slow (ish) start to the season, Bell is looking like the prototypical Jeff Brohm WR1 that we’re accustomed to seeing the last few weeks with a combined 22 receptions on 28 targets with 300+ receiving yards and three scores vs. Pittsburgh and Virginia. Miami hasn’t given up a ton of fantasy points to opposing receivers this season, but the big-play threats seem to give the Canes trouble over the top, ranking 79th in explosive plays allowed in the passing game. Chas Nimrod had 100+ yards, while Duce Robinson put up 87 yards on just six catches.
Fade – QB Miller Moss ($8,200) We were fading Moss here regardless at $8.2k with a 14-point projection. That was crystalized on Tuesday during Jeff Brohm’s weekly radio hit with the local media where he came out and said “we’ll most likely use two quarterbacks” against Miami. Probably some gamesmanship there to get the Canes to plan for multiple QBs, but the projection with or without factoring in two quarterbacks doesn’t warrant playing Moss here.
Bargain Bin – TE Jaleel Skinner ($3,100) If Louisville is not throwing to Bell or Caullin Lacy (rare), it’s usually in the direction of Skinner who has caught seven passes in the last two games. Miami is allowing 12.5 FPPG to the tight end position.
Pivot Play – RB Isaac Brown ($6,200) Sophomore slump for Brown who has just 106 rushing yards over the last three games but largely attributed to not being healthy for the better part of the last month. Brown looked improved against Virginia in Week 6, averaging almost six yards per carry, and had a bye week to get healthy. The most yards any running back has had against Miami this season is 47 by FSU’s Gavin Sawchuk, so expect Brown to have very little ownership.
Best of the Rest – WR Caullin Lacy ($6,200) If choosing between the two Louisville receivers, the strong lean is towards Bell as he fits the prototype that has given this Miami secondary the most troubles. But Louisville doesn’t really throw to anyone outside of this duo, so Lacy is considerable. Bell and Lacy combine for 55% of the team’s receiving production and 47% of the target share.
Injury Notes – n/a
Miami:
Top Play(s) – WR Malachi Toney ($4,900) One of two Miami receivers that is severely underpriced on the slate, coming off his best performance of the season with 107 yards and two touchdowns vs. Florida State. Toney’s efficiency is what stands out the most, catching at least six passes in four of five games played with an 81% catch rate and zero drops. Slot receivers have given Louisville trouble the last two games with Virginia’s Cam Ross (4-43-1) and Pittsburgh’s Cataurus Hicks (4-113-1).
Fade – RB CharMar Brown ($5,000) Will be intrigued to see how the RB rotation shakes out this week for the Canes as we saw Jordan Lyle get his first string of action since Week 1 coming back from injury. Brown’s production suffered as a result against FSU with just 19 yards on eight attempts, only one more than Lyle received (7). $5.0k for a backup running back that might still be splitting time isn’t that appealing.
Bargain Bin – TE Elija Lofton ($3,500) or WR Keelan Marion ($3,100) Miami pass-catchers beyond Daniels and Toney are low-ceiling / low-floor options, but a small argument can be made for both. Lofton’s usage has increased over the last two weeks with seven of his 11 receptions this season coming in that span. Marion is still holding onto a starting job, playing over 60% of the team’s offensive snaps. You have to wonder if his starting spot is in jeopardy, though, coming out of the bye week with just eight receiving yards in the last two games. Might be Joshua Moore time sooner rather than later.
Pivot Play – WR CJ Daniels ($4,200) Daniels is playable with or without Toney, as the duo combines for 49% of the team’s receiving production and eight of the 11 receiving touchdowns. Like Toney, Daniels has been incredible efficient with an 82% catch rate and at least four catches in all five games played.
Best of the Rest – RB Mark Fletcher ($7,900) There aren’t many good RB options on the slate, so Fletcher is certainly in play. But the junior back averaged just 3.3 yards per carry his last time out, and now there’s another option in the backfield to account for with Jordan Lyle. QB Carson Beck ($7,600) is a Heisman frontrunner, but we like some other QB options on the slate better (Walker Eget / Bryson Barnes). Louisville’ secondary is 7th in success rate, allowing just 17 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks this season.
Injury Notes – n/aQ
Nebraska vs. Minnesota
- Point-Spread: Neb -7.5
- O/U Total: 46.5
- Implied Score: Neb 27 – Minn 19.5
- Weather: 66 degrees / 12% rain / 9 mph winds
Nebraska:
Top Play(s) – RB Emmett Johnson ($7,600) Lock in the volume play at the position without a ton of options on the slate. Johnson is tied for 10th nationally in rushing attempts per game (17.5) and has scored double-digit fantasy points in every game this season due in large part to his usage in the pass game with 24 receptions on 29 targets. Minnesota is slightly below average for B1G standards defending the run, ranked 74th in success rate and 80th in explosive plays allowed on the ground.
Bargain Bin – WR Nyziah Hunter ($3,900) The Raiola / Hunter connection is heating up the last several weeks with a combined 218 yards and three touchdowns vs. Michigan State and Maryland. There is zero reason that Hunter should have a lower salary than Dane Key. That said…
Pivot Play – WR Dane Key ($4,300) or WR Jacory Barney ($3,600) Hunter is the best WR play for Nebraska, but the numbers show how evenly spread out the targets are for the Cornhuskers, with the WR1-3 separated by a mere six catches. Hunter will have significantly higher ownership than Key/Barney if looking for leverage against the field in GPP. Boundary receivers seem to give Minnesota the most trouble this season which favors Key (and Hunter) in this spot. Carnell Tate went for 150+ yards, while Rutgers’ KJ Duff posted 84 yards and a touchdown on six catches.
Best of the Rest – QB Dylan Raiola ($6,700) Raiola makes more sense to me than Carson Beck or Miller Moss at a significantly lesser cost with a marginally higher projection. The Gophers are a middle of the road pass defense, ranked 9th in the B1G in yards allowed through the air, and are giving up 21.7 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks.
Injury Notes – n/a
Minnesota:
Top Play(s) – RB Darius Taylor ($5,400) The run game is an issue for the Gophers, but here’s the positive spin on playing Taylor this week. First and foremost, he’s cheap, and for good reason you could argue, averaging less than two yards a carry over the last two games. Taylor’s involvement in the passing game last week is a plus, catching six passes on eight targets vs. Purdue. No other Minnesota running back carried the football against the Boilermakers, so no competition for carries. Most importantly, this is a terrible Nebraska run defense, ranked second to last in the conference in yards allowed on the ground and 90th in success rate.
Fade – QB Drake Lindsey ($7,000) There’s really no reason to play Lindsey on this slate, unless a game stack thinking this game could shoot out (it won’t). Lindsey is priced higher than Raiola, yet with a significantly lower projection (14.7 fpts). The Cornhuskers are giving up just 16.9 FPPG to quarterbacks this season.
Best of the Rest – Minnesota Pass-Catchers. Four options to choose from, all relatively similar in projection and cost. Le’Meke Brockington leads the team in targets (33), receptions (23) and has scored a touchdown in two of the last three games. He’s the preferred option. Javon Tracy is second in targets and receptions, while leading the Gophers in routes run. Jalen Smith is the upside shot, with a 38% catch rate (yuck) but averages 21.2 YPC with a 16.8 aDOT. Tight end Jameson Geers leads the team in touchdown (3), while Nebraska is allowing 8.5 FPPG to the position this season. Max one Minnesota pass-catcher per lineup.
Injury Notes – n/a
San Jose State vs. Utah State
- Point-Spread: Utah St -3.5
- O/U Total: 64.5
- Implied Score: Utah St 34 – SJSU 30.5
- Weather: 51 degrees / 1% rain / 7 mph winds
San Jose State:
Top Play(s) – WR Danny Scudero ($8,000) Nick Nash 2.0. Don’t even think about it, just insert Scudero in all lineups. Nation’s leader by a WIDE margin in targets (89), yards (854) and second in receptions (50) behind only Florida Atlantic’s Easton Messer.
Fade – RB Steve Chavez-Soto ($5,700) or RB Lamar Radcliffe ($4,400) If you want a small bit of exposure for fear of missing out on any SJSU player against this terrible Utah State defense…I get it. But the fact of the matter is that San Jose State is 136th out of 136 teams in rush play percentage. It’s a split backfield for a team that doesn’t run the ball.
Bargain Bin – WR Matthew Coleman ($3,400) He’s not dead yet, folks. I was sure that Coleman would be a transfer casualty after not winning the starting slot receiver role, and I suppose technically he still could after playing in just four games this season. But it doesn’t seem like he will after catching six passes on nine targets last week vs. Wyoming. When San Jose State goes to four-wide, Coleman is the second slot receiver on the field.
Pivot Play – QB Walker Eget ($8,000) Eget has been on a heater of last, scoring 25 or more fantasy points in each of his last three games, including a 473-yard performance against a power conference opponent in Stanford. He’s arguably the top QB option on the slate, facing a Utah State defense that is allowing 32 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks this season.
Best of the Rest – WR Kyri Shoels ($5,600) and / or WR Leland Smith ($5,300) Multiple WRs from San Jose State in the same lineup is not only an option, but a good one at that, with the high game total and the frequency at which the Spartans throw the football. Shoels had a down week against Wyoming, but is rarely leaving the field, playing well over 90% of the team’s offensive snaps over the last four games.
Injury Notes – WR Danny Scudero (Quest.); QB Walker Eget (Quest.)
Utah St:
Top Play(s) – QB Bryson Barnes ($7,800) Barnes is theCFFSite’s second highest projected quarterback of the entire weekend on college fantasy football, facing a San Jose State secondary that is 100th in pass D success rate and 106th in explosive pass plays allowed. Just make sure to do your due diligence in the pregame to ensure Barnes is a go because he left the game last week against Hawaii momentarily due to injury.
Bargain Bin – TE Broc Lane ($3,800) It was a quiet month of September for Lane, but his production has spiked in the last two weeks with a combined 146 receiving yards on 14 targets. HC Bronco Mendenhall called him the best tight end in the conference in the preseason, and it’s starting to show. San Jose State is giving up 13.2 FPPG to tight ends.
Pivot Play – RB Miles Davis ($5,600) or RB Javen Jacobs ($4,400) Definitely don’t stack both, but either Davis or Jacobs are viable options. Davis will see the heaviest ownership as he’s had multiple 100+ yard rushing performances in the last three weeks. That said, it seems like Jacobs and Davis have alternating weeks of being the lead back at times. Both are utilized in the passing game, ranked third and fourth on the team in targets / receptions with a combined five receiving touchdowns.
Best of the Rest – WR Brady Boyd ($5,100) or WR Braden Pegan ($5,900) Tight rotation at receiver with Pegan and Boyd playing the majority of the game, with Utah State running primarily 12 personnel with two tight ends on the field. No other wide receiver on the Utah State team has more than 102 receiving yards for the season. I’d lean against stacking the two together, but it is possible for GPP. San Jose State is giving up 43.2 combined fantasy points per game to wide receivers.
Injury Notes – n/a
North Carolina vs. California
- Point-Spread: Cal -10.5
- O/U Total: 47.5
- Implied Score: Cal 29 – UNC 18.5
- Weather: 65 degrees / 0% rain / 1 mph winds
North Carolina:
Play at your own risk. Maybe the Heels surprise us coming out of the bye week with newfound energy and offensive adjustments – we gotta see it to believe it first. Out on the quarterback. RB Benjamin Hall ($3,300) is preferred over RB Demon June ($4,700) based on salary and Hall finding the end-zone last time out against Clemson in Week 6. WR Jordan Shipp ($3,400) is easily the top play on the UNC side with a team-best 18 receptions on 23 targets as the only consistent offensive option North Carolina has had this season. Freshman WR Shanard Clower ($3,000) has seen increased playing time in the last two games with four receptions on six targets against both UCF and Clemson.
Cal:
Top Play(s) – TE Mason Mini ($4,600) Mini has been arguably the most consistent fantasy tight end in the country, with four or more receptions in all but one game played this season. Mini is ninth among fantasy tight ends this season in fantasy points scored. And has a dream matchup against a North Carolina defense that is allowing 16.7 FPPG to opposing tight ends, second most in the country behind Syracuse.
Bargain Bin – WR Jordan King ($3,000) King has played over 60% of the team’s snaps in each of the last two weeks, with seven of his 11 receptions coming in the span as he’s solidified himself as the WR3 behind de Jesus and Grizzell.
Pivot Play – RB Kendrick Raphael ($6,600) It was a struggle running the football against the Duke front in Week 6, but Raphael still managed two rushing TDs in the loss. Most notable was the rushing distribution with Raphael getting 18 carries compared to just three for the next closest Cal running back. UNC has been far better against the run than the pass, ranking 17th in rush D success rate.
Best of the Rest – QB Jaron Sagapolutele ($7,600) Sagapolutele is hitting the freshman wall, scoring a combined 29 fantasy points over the last three games. Perhaps the bye week came at a good time in the season, and a timely opponent as well with North Carolina ranked 125th in pass D success rate and allowing 21 FPPG to quarterbacks. He’s my QB5 on the slate behind Barnes, Eget, Beck and Raiola. WR Jacob de Jesus ($6,600) and WR Trond Grizzell ($4,400) are 1 and 2, respectively, in targets and receptions. One could argue Grizzell is the better value, averaging over 16 yards per catch and a 15.9 aDOT.
Injury Notes – WR Mark Hamper (questionable)
Mike’s DK Core Four:
- WR Danny Scudero, San Jose State
- RB Emmett Johnson, Nebraska
- QB Bryson Barnes, Utah State
- QB Walker Eget, San Jose State
Mike’s FD Core Four:
- WR Danny Scudero, San Jose State
- RB Emmett Johnson, Nebraska
- QB Bryson Barnes, Utah State
- RB Darius Taylor, Minnesota
