Kansas State @ Texas Tech
Point-Spread: PK
O/U Total: 60.5
Weather: 76 degrees / 0% rain / 14 mph winds
Kansas State:
I assume Skylar Thompson will have one of the highest ownership percentages on a slate where quarterbacks are few and far in-between at just $6k, having scored 20+ fantasy points in each of the last two games. We also have Thompson projected at 23 points this week, which at this juncture, I’d probably take at that pricing. But how much upside does Thompson have against a Texas Tech defense that is surprisingly good at defending the pass, allowing under 130 yards in the last two games. For Thompson to reach value, he needs to throw the ball well because it appears he’s being cautious with his legs following the non-contact injury suffered in Week 2. Just eight carries over the last two weeks. Outside of the 50-point performance from Casey Thompson against Tech earlier in the year, the highest fantasy output from a QB was 25 fpts from Clayton Tune in the opener.
Of course, if K-State finds success on the ground (they will), that will open up opportunities for Thompson in the passing game. That leads us to Deuce Vaughn who should be featured against a Tech defense that allowed Texas and TCU to rush for 300+ yards and a combined nine touchdowns. Advanced data heavily supports the Wildcats’ rushing attack in this matchup, ranking 24th in Line Yards, 2nd in Offensive Power Success and 7th in Rush Play Success Rate, whereas the Raiders are 106th in Defensive Rush Play Success Rate. Touches are way up this year for Vaughn, averaging 18 carries per game and 3.8 receptions. Also averaging 5.5 targets per game, including a season-high 13 against Oklahoma in Week 5.
When the Wildcats take to the air, its going in two directions, either to Philip Brooks or Malik Knowles who account for 46 percent of the target share and four of the team’s seven receiving touchdowns. Neither player has scored more than 19 fantasy points this year in a low-volume passing offense that features their RB1 regularly in the scheme.
Texas Tech:
We have a lower projection on Henry Columbi this week, but actually think he should be able to out-produce last week’s underwhelming total due potential game script here as a pick’em. Columbi scored two touchdowns last week against Kansas while completing 75 percent of his throws, but was not needed much in the second half due Tech being up by such a big margin. The Wildcats have really struggled to get after opposing QBs the last few weeks, allowing Spencer Rattler and Brock Purdy to complete over 80 percent of their passes. On the season, Kansas State is 120th in Pass Play Success Rate defensively. To K-State’s credit, it seems as though they are giving up a lot of junk underneath to avoid allowing the big play, ranking 64th in Pass Play Explosiveness and have given up just one 30-point performance to an opposing QB this season. At $6,300, I think Columbi is a decent dart throw that should have low ownership after his disappointing output a week ago.
Don’t have an update on Tahj Brooks at the current moment, and he wasn’t suited up at all last week against Kansas so I assume this will be Sa’Rodorick Thompson’s show again on Saturday. Thompson is seeing more than double the carries that backup Xavier White receives which we like. Hasn’t been featured much in the passing game this year which is surprising given Thompson had 61 career receptions coming into the year – just four targets in five games. Kansas State’s defense has struggled defending the run since Big 12 play began, and are now allowing 20.0 FPPG this season to opposing RB1s. Texas Tech is 13th this season in Rush Play Success Rate and 30th in Line Yards so this matchup does favor the Raiders slightly. I wouldn’t advise it, but we do have White projected at 10 fantasy points this week at $3,800. He’s averaging just over eight touches a game.
For those that think Kaylon Geiger is the new WR1 over Erik Ezukanma…please stop. He’s out-targeted Geiger the last two weeks. This is more a product of Columbi spreading the ball around to numerous receivers, including both Myles Price and Trey Cleveland who have 15 combined targets the last two games. Because of the price difference and our projection, I’d probably look to Geiger first here, but really minimal discrepancy between he and Ezukanma in terms of fantasy value for me. 6-foot-8 FR tight end Mason Tharp has taken over the TE1 job from Travis Koontz, and has five receptions on six targets in the last two games.
Oklahoma @ Kansas
Point-Spread: Okla -38.5
O/U Total: 66.5
Weather: 64 degrees / 10% rain / 7 mph winds
Oklahoma:
I understand the trepidations of rostering Caleb Williams this week against an inferior opponent with concerns about playing time, but just look back over the years at OU quarterbacks in these types of matchups. Rarely, if ever, do you see an occasion where the QB doesn’t reach / surpass value despite the blowout nature of the game. I’ll have plenty of exposure to Williams, projected at around 33 fantasy points this week, given the high floor / high ceiling value he possesses with this matchup. Hopefully this doesn’t bite me in the ass, but I’ll be full-fade of Kennedy Brooks here despite him taking over as the lead back, averaging 20 carries over the last three weeks. Looking back at those same examples we used with Oklahoma QB1s in blowouts, the highest carry total for the RB1 in blowouts is 11. I suspect Riley will look to keep Brooks fresh here, getting plenty of run for Eric Gray and possibly Marcus Major who was ruled eligible two weeks ago. $5,200 is too expensive for Gray here so I’ll be fading the entire backfield.
Well looky here, we’ve seen an uptick in Marvin Mims’ snap counts of late, on the field about 66 percent of the time over the last two games. With Williams at QB, we’ve seen a change with the target distribution as it appears Mims, Jadon Haselwood and Michael Woods have separated themselves, accounting for 81 percent of the targets that have gone to Oklahoma receivers the last two weeks. Haselwood was the beneficiary last week, finally coming through with three receiving touchdowns as he continues to lead the team in targets and snaps on the season. It was bound to happen eventually. Woods is still firmly in the mix, averaging five targets a game, and cheap at $4,400.
Kansas:
Implied total of 14.5 means this is mostly a stay-away spot. Devin Neal won’t find any traction against the Sooners’ run defense that ranks 19th in the country. Head coach Lance Leipold called out QB1 Jason Bean, saying he has plateaued after a strong start to the year. Projections have Miles Kendrick in as the starter this week, which decreases my interest even more if that’s actually the case. Receivers are cheap, but the snap count share is relatively even between the top five options, so pick a name out of a hat here. Kwamie Lassiter would be my top choice as he sees the field more than anyone else and is tied for the team lead in targets (31) with Trevor Wilson. Luke Grimm, Steven McBride and Lawrence Arnold will all play extensively as well.
Cincinnati @ Navy
Point-Spread: Cin -28
O/U Total: 48.5
Weather: 63 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Cincinnati:
Fair to say that Desmond Ridder has been a disappointment this season from a fantasy perspective? In terms of real football, Ridder’s outstanding with 13 touchdowns, two interceptions, completing 64 percent of his passes and increased his YPA average to 8.6. But this was the warning sign we gave in the preseason where his 12 rushing touchdowns last year in this offensive system were an outlier, and it’s playing out exactly as predicted with Ridder averaging just six carries per game – down from 9.8 in 2020. Could Ridder breakout this week against Navy? Of course. 38 implied points against a defense that ranks 109th in the country. But playing the storyline game…does Cincinnati need to put Ridder in harm’s way much against an inferior opponent with a CFP berth up for grabs? Nope. Last week’s plan of riding RB1 Jerome Ford worked out just fine with 189 rushing yards and four scores against UCF. The eight attempts from backup Ryan Montgomery were the most any running back not named Ford had all season in a game, which boosts Ford’s value not sharing carries in the Cincy backfield. We have WR1 Alec Pierce projected at 15 fantasy points this week after finding the end-zone for the third time in four games, but willing to spend up to $6,700 for a receiver that had just two targets last week in the blowout win? To be fair, Pierce also had 93 yards and a TD on eight targets the prior game against Temple, also a blowout. Risky proposition either way. Little to no interest in any other Cincy pass-catcher.
Navy:
Implied total of 10.25 and no player projected to score more than 10 fantasy points this week. Let’s all save some time in our daily lives and move on.
Northwestern @ Michigan
Point-Spread: UM -23.5
O/U Total: 51
Weather: 51 degrees / 2% rain / 9 mph winds
Northwestern:
The Wildcats got it done with the pass last week against Rutgers, with quarterback Ryan Hilinski throwing for a season-high 267 yards and two touchdowns to secure Northwestern’s first conference victory of the year. Three starts in since taking over the starting job, Hilinski has completed nearly 60 percent of his passes and was finally able to threaten a defense down the field with five completions of 19 yards or more against the Knights. Also playing a role in Northwestern’s newfound success with the pass is receiver Stephon Robinson Jr., who topped 100 receiving yards for the second straight week. WR2 Malik Washington was targets seven times last week, resulting in 5-84-1. We have both receivers topping double digit fantasy points this week, but not by much – I have a difficult time seeing how NW will generate touchdowns on Saturday…yes, said by the Michigan homer here.
Often the source of any offensive success this season for the Wildcats, the ground game combined for just 135 yards on 48 attempts as opponents have loaded the box the last two weeks. After averaging more than 300 rushing yards per game as a team through the first month of the season, Northwestern has been limited to just 2.1 yards per carry against Nebraska and Rutgers. For the Wildcats to pull off the upset Saturday, the offensive line will have to be at its best against a Wolverines front that has 14 sacks through six games and limiting opponents to just 3.5 yards per attempt on the ground. Northwestern’s pass protection has been an issue this season with 13 sacks allowed, which doesn’t help Hilinski here. Easy fade with Evan Hull at $6,200 given the matchup, and that he gave way to Andrew Clair against Rutgers who was far more effective on half the rushing attempts.
Michigan:
I’ll be sprinkling in both Blake Corum and Hassan Haskins in my lineups all over this Main Slate. Best rushing offense in the Big Ten vs. worst rush defense in the conference. Pretty simple. Like some of Northwestern’s opponents, teams have loaded the box against the Wolverines of late and have had some success as Michigan is averaging just 3.45 yards per carry over the last three weeks. Against Nebraska, we saw a performance reminiscent of the first month of the year from the backfield duo of Blake Corum and Hassan Haskins, combing for 212 yards and three scores on the ground, averaging well over six yards a carry. We get a price savings with Haskins which will inflate his ownership in both cash and GPP, but we have both RBs projected above 20 fantasy points this week so you really can’t go wrong with either.
With eight- and nine-man fronts from opposing defenses, quarterback Cade McNamara has been forced to do more in recent weeks and has been mostly up to the task. The junior quarterback has thrown the ball 66 times in the last two games, more than he did in the first four weeks of the season combined. McNamara threw for a season-high 255 yards against the Cornhuskers, though he did toss the first interception of his career, which was only the second turnover the Wolverines have had all season. If there has been a bright spot for the Northwestern defense in 2021, it would be the play of the secondary which ranks 37th in coverage grades, per Pro Football Focus, and he held opponents under 200 passing yards four times already this year. Receiver situation remains the same with Roman Wilson’s status still unknown: Cornelius Johnson ->Daylen Baldwin->Mike Sainristil. Baldwin, the D3 transfer that had an Ohio State offer, seems to be trending upwards with his involvement in the offense, seeing a season-high in snaps and targets (13) vs. Nebraska.
Illinois @ Penn State
Point-Spread: PSU -24
O/U Total: 45.5
Weather: 49 degrees / 8% rain / 6 mph winds
Illinois:
Implied total of 11.25. We can bypass this one. No interest in whoever starts at quarterback – sounds like it will be Artur Sitkowski last I saw. Penn State ranks 26th in the country at stopping the run, holding their last three opponents to under three yards per attempt. Why spend up to $5,700 for Chase Brown when you can just pivot to a cheaper Hassan Haskins in a far better matchup. WR1 Isaiah Williams continues to dominate the team target share (28%) and was targeted nine times in Week 6 vs. Wisconsin. He’s the only Illini player you could make a realistic argument for rostering at $3,700.
Penn State:
If this were Michigan or Ohio State, I think Sean Clifford would be the QB here. Alas, with the pitiful Illini coming into town and the Penn State defense playing at a championship level, it’s more likely we see Ta’Quan Roberson and Christian Veilleux get the bulk of the work on Saturday. This is a fade for me with the lack of clarity and cheaper options available to us with Skylar Thompson and Henry Columbi as previously mentioned. Roberson’s dual-threat ability adds some appeal, but that goes away pretty quickly after watching him throw against Iowa two weeks ago. Indecisive at the moment about how to attack Jahan Dotson at his $7,200 salary. The clear WR1 was a security blanket for the young QB against Iowa, accumulating 17 targets on the day. Will he be needed against Illinois? My assumption is no, particularly with the interesting comments from head coach Bret Beilema this week about his current roster. I can’t imagine that resonates to well with the current players, and this feels like a team already looking towards 2022. KeAndre Lambert-Smith has had four or more targets in every game this season. Slot receiver Parker Washington hovers around the LOS with an aDOT this season of just 7.9, and sits second on the team with 28 receptions on 36 targets.
The Penn State backfield is where my attention will be leading up to game time as we have injury news to monitor with John Lovett and Devyn Ford who left the contest against Iowa. Head coach James Franklin said they’ll rotate “all the guys that are available” and would help us if we knew that it was down to two in Noah Cain and Keyvone Lee. Cain still projects as the top running back here for the time-being, but has not been productive, averaging under 2.5 yards per carry over the last five games. Albeit in limited action, Lee has been the more effective rusher of the two, seeing a season-high in carries vs. Iowa after rushing for 74 yards on eight carries the previous week against Indiana. I’m reading mixed messages from different writers here as to who the better play would be between the two – with one 247 writer predicting Lee produces Penn State’s first 100-yard rushing effort of 2021. Maybe the simplest answer for us is to avoid this situation entirely since the Nittany Lions rank 95th in the country in rushing and 104th in Run Play Success Rate. I just can’t help but think that Penn State will try and get some momentum going with the running game on Saturday with a backup QB likely under center.
Wake Forest @ Army
Point-Spread: WF -3
O/U Total: 52.5
Weather: 50 degrees / 15% rain / 5 mph winds
Wake Forest:
Finding success against the Army defense is generally easier via the pass versus the run this season, but this is a Top 40 scoring defense that has allowed over 30 points just once this season. And you’re unlikely to see a ton of snaps as an offense with the Knights leading the country in TOP. Sam Hartman continues to find himself in the mid-salary range of quarterbacks, meaning he’ll see fairly low ownership in GPPs. Army is allowing 21.1 FPPG to opposing QBs this season, heavily swayed by the 45-point performance from Bailey Zappe in Week 2. The Knights are 72nd in Pass Play Success Rate defensively and have forced just four interceptions this season so the secondary doesn’t create a ton of havoc.
We don’t have a single WF running back projected to score more than 10 points this week. Army ranks fourth in the country at stopping the run, giving up around 70 YPG on the ground and are allowing just 10.8 FPPG to opposing RB1s on the year. Wake Forest hasn’t exactly succeeeded this year on the ground, ranking 86th in Run Play Success Rate and 58th in Line Yards so this isn’t a matchup of particular interest, especially with a committee approach between Christian Beal-Smith, Christian Turner and Justice Ellison. The one lone argument here for CBS is that he did see the bulk of the carries against Syracuse in Week 6 with 17 attempts. Still averaged under four yards per attempt, which he’s done in each of the last three games.
Most of my interest in WF lies with the receivers this week in Jaquarii Roberson, A.T. Perry and Taylor Morin. After a small bump in the road, Roberson is back to posting double-digit targets which he has the last two games. Perry has found the end-zone in five of the six games played this year, and the highest aDOT on the team at 17.5. Both players project at around 15 points this week. Army does rank 80th in Pass Play Explosiveness which might give the slight edge to Perry and his big-play ability. Wide range of outcomes for Mortin who sees equal snaps to both Roberson/Perry, but less volume (25 targets) and just two scores.
Army:
Surprised to see Army with a 24.5 implied total here as the Knights haven’t hit that mark in any of the last three games, and that includes two MAC opponents. We’ll have to monitor the QB situation here with starter Christian Anderson who was not dressed for the Wisconsin game last week, but has practiced. Tyhier Tyler started in place of Anderson against the Badgers and displayed plenty of toughness against one of the best run defenses in the country, rushing for 90 yards on 16 carries and a TD. There isn’t a ton of talent in the Army backfield so they’ve utilized the QB position more in the running game than they have in recent years, averaging nearly 18 attempts per game. If heavily invested in knowing who the Army starting QB will be on Saturday, @salinterdonato is the feed to follow on Twitter.
Army should find some success this week on the ground against a Wake Forest run defense that’s given up a combined 566 rushing yards in the last two weeks. Not working in Army’s favor is that WF is coming off a bye week so they had extra time to prepare for the triple-option offense. Fullback Jakobi Buchanan continues to see the most reps in the backfield, averaging around 10 carries a game, but has been largely ineffective at 3.1 YPC. At $3,200, all we need is for him to fall into the end-zone once. I don’t always lean on what beat writers say, but the aforementioned Sal Interdonato did mention in a pregame writeup that “I think they will test Wake Forest up the middle with their fullback and see what that opens up with the triple option.” Tyson Riley and Anthony Adkins see rotational reps at the position. Slot-back Tyrell Robinson is a really talented player, but plays in the wrong scheme. Has not had more than eight touches in a game all season.
Wisconsin @ Purdue
Point-Spread: Wisc -3.5
O/U Total: 40.5
Weather: 54 degrees / 4% rain / 6 mph winds
Wisconsin:
We mentioned in last week’s writeup how well the Purdue defense has played this season against both the run and pass, so we’re unlikely to have a ton of exposure to Wisconsin players this week with an implied total of 21.5. Graham Mertz finally surpassed double-digit fantasy points in a game for the first time all season, but unsurprisingly, neither of his two touchdowns came via the pass. Purdue is fourth (!) in the country in Pass Play Success Rate defensively and giving up the second-least fantasy points in the country (another !!!) behind only Wisconsin. Easy fade for Mertz and the entire Wisconsin passing game where none of the receivers project to score more than nine fantasy points.
The Boilermakers have also been up to the task this year at stopping the run, ranking 23rd in Rush Play Success Rate and fifth in the Big Ten, allowing 114.6 YPG. Chez Mellusi out-snapped Braelon Allen by one play last week, with both players notching 16 carries against Army. Difference here was productivity as Allen topped 100 yards with a touchdown, and has had the higher YPC between the two in each of the last two weeks. Wisky’s offensive line has played better in recent weeks, now ranking 32nd in Line Yards and 27th in Rush Play Success Rate, so I wouldn’t discount Allen here despite how good the Purdue run defense has been.
Purdue:
Projections call for Aidan O’Connell to reach 19 fantasy points, throwing for 285 yards and two touchdowns. I struggle to see that against a Wisconsin defense that is allowing just 12.6 FPPG to opposing QBs this season and 3rd nationally in Defensive Pass Play Success Rate. He’s cheap enough at $5,900 that I can’t ‘X’ him out of the player pool of quarterbacks, but I doubt I’ll have any exposure when I can spend $100 more for Skylar Thompson. I will ‘X’ out running back King Doerue against the No. 1 rush defense in the Big Ten. Doerue isn’t used much in the passing game – just one target against Iowa – and Purdue ranks 109th in the country in Rush Play Success Rate. Clear fade. David Bell is probably our only realistic option here, receiving double-digit targets in four of the five games played this season. For as good as the Wisconsin pass defense has been this season, the Badgers’ defensive backs struggle with athleticism which Bell has plenty of. Kevin Austin, Cornelius Johnson and Jahan Dotson all scored 18 or more fantasy points against the Wisconsin secondary. Right around where we have Bell projected at this week. Slot receiver T.J. Sheffield had his best performance of the season against Iowa, converting all eight of his targets with a touchdown. Michael Mayer found some success against the Badgers earlier in the year with 13.1 fantasy points. Maybe Payne Durham could put up a similar number? 5-15-0 on seven targets last week vs. the Hawkeyes.
Oklahoma State @ Iowa State
Point-Spread: ISU -7
O/U Total: 47
Weather: 58 degrees / 2% rain / 10 mph winds
Oklahoma State:
Spencer Sanders has had some success against this Iowa State defense in the past, completing 68 percent of his passes in the previous two matchups with 111 rushing yards and four combined touchdowns. Shot-in-the-dark GPP play at $6,500, projected at around 20 fantasy points, but not rushing to roster him against the Cyclones who are allowing just 15.3 FPPG to opposing QBs this season. Sanders has thrown for more than 200 yards just once in 2021, and the 7.4 y/att is the lowest mark of his career. Jaylen Warren continues to be an elite volume-eater in the OK State backfield, averaging 32 attempts over the last month, but not sure it’s worth spending up to roster him this week where the Cyclones are allowing just 9.6 FPPG to opposing RB1s on the year. Deuce Vaughn posted the highest point total of any running back this season against Iowa State at just 14.5. OSU is 120th in Line Yards and 94th in Stuff Rate, making it all the more impressive what Warren has done this season despite getting little help from his offensive line. Just three options to choose from in the passing game with Tay Martin, Brennan Presley and Rashod Owens who combined for 22 of the 30 team targets last week vs. Texas and are dominating the snap counts among the receivers.
Iowa State:
Brock Purdy projects as one of the lowest QBs on the slate at 15.9 fantasy points, facing a superb Oklahoma State secondary that ranks 16th in PFF coverage grades, is 30th in Defensive Pass Play Success Rate and allowing just 14.7 FPPG to opposing QBs this season. Hank Bachmeier posted the highest point total of the season against OSU at just 17.1. To his credit, Purdy has performed much better since his disastrous outing against Iowa, completing over 80 percent of his passes in the last month with nine passing touchdowns. Problem is – seven TDs came against UNLV and Kansas.
What else can we say about Breece Hall that hasn’t already been said? Two rushing TDs in each of the last four games. Has found paydirt in every game this season. Seeing plenty of work in the passing game with 21 receptions on 23 targets, and on pace to blow away what he’s done as a receiver the previous two seasons. Sits second among projected RBs on the main slate behind Jerome Ford because of the matchup where Oklahoma State is 16th in the country at defending the run, allowing just 2.99 YPC on the season. Last week was the first time all year a team averaged more than four yards a carry against the Cowboys. Bijan Robinson found the end-zone three times last week against this same defense, rushing for 135 yards on 21 carries, so we shouldn’t discount Hall here despite the tough matchup on paper.
If we don’t like Purdy this week, we probably won’t have much interest in the Iowa State receivers either. The plus side is we are seeing the same target share we did a year ago with Xavier Hutchinson and tight end Charlie Kolar accounting for 51 percent of the targets if we exclude Hall. Of the two, I’d side with Kolar here based on pricing, despite the Cowboys allowing just 1.0 FPPG to opposing tight ends this season. They have not faced a team yet this year that utilizes the position much in the passing game outside of the Hawkeyes. Kolar has at least four receptions in every week.
LSU @ Mississippi
Point-Spread: Miss -8
O/U Total: 76.5
Weather: 76 degrees / 3% rain / 7 mph winds
LSU:
These high game totals haven’t exactly worked out for anyone the last few weeks. Does LSU / Ole Miss live up to the hype from a fantasy perspective? Line has jumped slightly to 76.5 since the start of the week. I’d be lying to you if I knew what to expect from Max Johnson and this passing game here. Was last week what we should anticipate from the LSU offense moving forward with the youth and inexperience at WR, as Johnson had a season-low 24 passing attempts? Still managed to throw three touchdown passes in a game for the fifth time this season, and Ole Miss remains a bottom-tier pass defense, ranking 85th in Pass Play Success Rate and allowing 35.5 FPPG to opposing QBs. We only have Johnson projected at 22 fantasy points this week, but could be a strong pivot in GPPs where players are likely to flock towards Tyrion Davis-Price. The Rebels have certainly noticed what TDP has done on the ground of late and will likely game-plan towards shutting down the run to see if this inexperienced collection of receivers can beat them through the air. The LSU offensive line still grades out poorly for the season, but they’ll have the advantage against an Ole Miss front that is 125th in Run Play Success Rate 109th in Defensive Line Yards. Best part about TDP has done is the volume share in the LSU backfield where he’s accounted for 80 percent of the total rushing attempts over the last two weeks.
One of our featured Discorders and resident LSU fans confirmed our belief that we shouldn’t fully trust the three-touchdown performance last week from Jaray Jenkins, and expect this to be a committee approach of sorts between him, Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. That trio dominated the target/snap counts last week against Florida with Kayshon Boutte and Deion Smith out of the lineup (Smith is out again this week per Orgeron). Nabers led the way with six targets. Everyone’s popular punt play against Florida last week, tight end Jack Bech, failed to contribute much with two receptions on three targets, but has been the most consistent LSU pass-catcher not named Boutte this season. Once again, he’s best served as an option on FanDuel at $5,400.
Mississippi:
The line is down to -8 now, so does Vegas know something we don’t here regarding the status of quarterback Matt Corral? This probably has more to do with the mounting injuries on the offensive side of the ball for Ole Miss where Corral is banged up, guard Ben Brown is questionable as is wide receiver Braylon Sanders, WR Jonathan Mingo and tight end Chase Rogers are both already confirmed out. We still have Corral as the second-highest projected QB on the slate, going against an LSU defense that is allowing 32.1 FPPG this season to opposing quarterbacks, but there is just a ton of uncertainty here even if he plays. 30 carries certainly won’t happen again, meaning more touches in the Ole Miss backfield. That also means deciding between a three-man committee with Jerrion Ealy back in the lineup following his concussion. Ealy saw the least amount of carries and snaps between the three options against Tennessee with the staff likely easing him back in, but Lane Kiffin has shown over the years that he’s the preferred guy when healthy. His price-point makes him a worthwhile punt on both sites with Ole Miss potentially leaning on the backfield with Corral less than 100 percent.
Snoop Conner led the team in carries last week and fell into the end-zone twice while averaging just 2.4 YPC. The backfield trio combined for 14 targets vs. the Vols with Henry Parrish Jr. accounting for half of those. LSU is allowing 20.1 FPPG to opposing RB1s on the year, with four different running backs topping 20 fantasy points, but we don’t have a ton of clarity as to how the distribution of carries will shake out here…outside of all three will be heavily involved. Dontario Drummond remains the top target for the Ole Miss offense, but he’s overpriced here at $7,800 as his production has taken an extreme hit with his move outside due to the Mingo injury. The telecast last week also indicated that Drummond may not be 100 percent healthy either. Slot receiver Jahcour Pearson easily should have hit last week had it not been for three drops. Was second among receivers with five targets and played 88 of 103 snaps. I’ll be very tempted to take a shot here again, hoping he can hold onto the damn ball. Dannis Jackson came on for the injured Sanders and converted his two targets, one of which resulted in a touchdown. Not going crazy here with Ole Miss receivers despite pricing with nine different pass-catchers nabbing a reception last week. Tight end Casey Kelly saw his first extended action of the season, finishing with three catches on four targets.
Oregon @ UCLA
Point-Spread: UCLA -1
O/U Total: 60.5
Weather: 70 degrees / 1% rain / 7 mph winds
Oregon:
As the projections indicate, this is clearly a two-man offensive show right now for the Ducks with QB Anthony Brown and RB Travis Dye who accounted for three of the four touchdowns last week against Cal. I feel comfortable in saying the UCLA defense will put the onus on Brown to win this game on the road. The Bruins come in with the ninth-ranked run defense in the country, having limited both Arizona and Washington to under three yards a carry the last two games. With CJ Verdell out of the lineup, Dye has dominated the volume in the Ducks’ backfield with 19 attempts vs. Stanford and 18 last week against Cal where no other back had more than two carries, indicating they’ll likely ride their senior in competitive matchups as this should be. Always an exceptional pass-catcher, Dye was also the team leader last Friday with eight receptions on nine targets. While UCLA is stout against the run, Oregon’s offensive line should matchup well as they’re 16th in Line Yards and 23rd in Run Play Success Rate. As for Brown, love the floor he provides, hitting 20 fantasy points in five of the six games played this season, and is averaging 12 rushing attempts over the last three weeks. As is the case every week with Oregon…just say no to any of their wide receivers. Johnny Johnson has the highest target share at just 14 percent.
UCLA:
After arguably the worst performance of his career, Dorian Thompson-Robinson had a bounce-back performance at Washington last week, completing 81 percent of his passes for 183 yards and two TDs, while adding 87 yards and another score on the ground. Projections like DTR this week at around 25 fantasy points, and I think he’ll have low ownership with his salaries on both DFS sites. Despite all of the individual talent on the Oregon defense, they have not performed up to expectations, ranking 100th in Pass Defense Success Rate and 102nd in Sack Rate despite having one of the best pass rushers in the country. Opposing QBs are averaging 28.7 FPPG against the Ducks this season. No update that I’ve seen on WR1 Kyle Philips who did not play against Washington. Offense didn’t appear to miss a beat without Philips, with Kam Brown stepping up with 3-27-1 on four targets. Logan Loya started in Philips’ place in the slot, but was targeted just once. Kazmeir Allen, listed as a running back on DK, had a season-high five receptions on six targets, but would only be a longshot option if Philips were confirmed out. TE1 Greg Dulcich is priced down at $4,800 despite topping double-digit fantasy points in four of his five games played. Second on the team in targets with 33. RB1 Zach Charbonnet continues to dominate the touches in the UCLA backfield with exactly 21 rushing attempts in the last three games and over 100 yards rushing in three of the last four. Don’t see any major advantages for UCLA here against an Oregon run defense that sits middle of the pack in the Pac-12 at 137.6 YPG allowed and a middling 53rd in Rush Play Success Rate.
Clemson @ Pittsburgh
Point-Spread: Pitt -3.5
O/U Total: 47.5
Weather: 56 degrees / 10% rain / 8 mph winds
Clemson:
Keep our eyes peeled here for the status of Will Shipley who is ahead of schedule in his rehab, with Dabo Swinney calling him a game-time decision as he looked better than anticipated at this point in the process. Not that we would consider playing him at all at $6,300 where Shipley isn’t 100 percent, but that could affect the volume of current RB1 Kobe Pace who is averaging 17 touches a game over the last two weeks. Pace has been effective, averaging over 5.5 yards a carry, but this isn’t the best of matchups for a marginal talent as Pitt ranks 8th nationally in Rush Play Success Rate. The Panthers are allowing 15.1 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season, but the two players who had the most success – Jahmyr Gibbs and Sean Tyler – really hurt the Pitt D with their pass catching ability. Pace isn’t likely to factor in much as a receiver.
Injuries a plenty at WR with Joe Ngata now confirmed to be OUT on Saturday and both E.J. Williams and Frank Ladson are considered doubtful at this point. Yeeesh. That means we are looking at a starting trio of Justyn Ross, Ajou Ajou and Beaux Collins in the slot. Ross is averaging just over seven targets a game on the year, but has hit double-digits in two of the last three weeks. Ajou and Collins are both talented 4-star prospects, but haven’t seen them enough in game action to warrant a ton of consideration, particularly with how the Clemson offense as a whole has looked. I think a strong pivot could be towards tight end Davis Allen who had eight receptions on nine targets vs. Syracuse. Tennessee’s Jacob Warren was the only tight end to give this Pitt defense much trouble, racking up 16.5 fantasy points. Now down multiple starters at receiver, I can’t see any way in which we fire up D.J. Uiagalelei this week, projected at just 17.5 fantasy points. DJU has failed to crack that mark in four of six games. We are seeing the sophomore QB run a bit more which outsiders were calling for, rushing 23 times over the last two weeks.
Pittsburgh:
Clemson has shut down opposing QBs for the most part this season, allowing just 17.5 FPPG with the two outliers being Devin Leary (game went to overtime) and Garrett Shrader (not exactly a quarterback). Projections still like Kenny Pickett as a Top 20 fantasy option this week, which I think makes him a viable GPP option with folks steering away from the Clemson defense, but this is one of the lowest implied totals for Pittsburgh all season. Gut instinct says to fade here as the Tigers are 15th in Pass Play Success Rate defensively. Five receptions in every game this season for WR1 Jordan Addison, but failed to find the end-zone for the first time this year against Virginia Tech last week. That’s what happens when Addison isn’t breaking off a long reception, and was limited to his lowest aDOT of the season at 8.3. The Tigers were able to hold Addison in check last year with 5-41-1 on nine targets. I’d rather spend up on running backs in this slate, so I’ll be fading Addison personally as I don’t see a ton of upside here for his price point. Taysir Mack and Jared Wayne combined for nine receptions on 16 targets last week against the Hokies, second the second and third-most snaps, respectively. Tight end Lucas Krull saw the second-most snaps of any skill position player not named Kenny Pickett last week, but his production has fallen off the last three weeks, coincidentally as FR Gavin Bartholomew has seen his playing time increase. Trae Barry and Brock Bowers had a fair amount of success against Clemson, both topping double-digit fantasy points.
Maryland @ Minnesota
Point-Spread: Minn -4.5
O/U Total: 53.5
Weather: 50 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
Maryland:
I don’t think there was a team in the country that needed a bye week more than Maryland after back-to-back losses, along with the surplus of injuries. Starting at receiver, the Terps will be down both Dontay Demus and Jeshaun Jones on Saturday, leaving Rakim Jarrett and a smorgasbord of backups available to us to select from this week. Seven different receivers had at least one reception against Ohio State, with Carlos Carriere leading the way with 5-35-1 on six targets. On this week’s game notes, Carriere sits on the second line of the depth chart behind Darryl Jones – the two split snaps against the Buckeyes. In place of Jeshaun Jones, Brian Cobbs moved up to the starting line and is probably the best “bang for your buck” option at $3,200. New WR1 Rakim Jarrett gets a major salary increase despite converting on just one of his four targets against OSU – though that went for a 43-yard touchdown. Tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo has seen an uptick in targets the last three game (14), with 12 receptions in that span.
I’m out on Tayon Fleet-Davis against one of the better run defenses in the country where the Gophers are allowing just 86 yards per game on the ground and 12.1 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Challen Faamatau and Peny Boone dipped into his workload against the Buckeyes. That leaves just Taulia Tagovailoa who carved up this Minnesota team last season with 470 total yards and five touchdowns. You trust him in this spot, on the road, without two starting receivers, with the way he’s been playing of late with seven interceptions in his last two appearances? Gophers are just 62nd in Pass Defense Success Rate, but have allowed just a single quarterback to score more than 23 fantasy points against them this season (CJ Stroud). I simply don’t trust Tagovailoa, particularly in a road spot where he’s traditionally struggled.
Minnesota:
Projections don’t immediately jump out at you with no Minnesota player projected to score more than 17 fantasy points this week but on a per dollar basis for DFS, I think we have a couple directions to go here. For one, Maryland has been decimated by injuries on both sides of the ball. Defensively, they’ll be without their top pass rusher, top cornerback and their second-best corner has a lingering hamstring injury. Bodes well for Tanner Morgan and this passing game that showed life last week vs. Nebraska where the senior QB completing 20-of-24 passes for 209 yards and two scores. Threw two interceptions as well, but that’s the best Morgan has looked maybe since 2019? Very risky proposition starting Morgan at any point, but remember what Spencer Petras was able to do against this Maryland defense on the road a few weeks back? The Terps are allowing 28.5 FPPG to opposing QBs this season and 56th in Pass Play Success Rate.
Top target Chris Autman-Bell had a career day with 11 receptions on 12 targets for 103 yards and a score. Probably foaming at the mouth looking at the Maryland Injury Report we indicated above. Mike Brown-Stephens also had a good day with 3-58-1 on five targets, but his value would take a dive if Daniel Jackson returns from injury. My assumption is that the backfield distribution this week will look similar to what it did against Nebraska with 17-7-7 between Bryce Williams, Ky Thomas and Mar’Keise Irving, as well as sprinkling some Cole Kramer in down near the goal-line. Maryland is far better at defending the run vs. the pass, ranking 43rd in Rush Play Success Rate, but they aren’t any better than Nebraska in said category, and Williams managed to be productive with 127 yards and a TD.