Tennessee @ Alabama
Point-Spread: Ala -25
O/U Total: 68
Weather: 66 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Tennessee:
It was confirmed Friday that Hendon Hooker would be OK to start vs. Alabama after suffering a knee bruise against Ole Miss. What’s made Hooker such an upgrade for UT at the position is his ability to run, or at least the threat of it, averaging over 17 rushing attempts in the last four games. Does a knee bruise hamper that ability? In five starts, Hooker is averaging nearly 289 yards of total offense with 18 total TDs and just one interception, ranking fifth in the country in passer rating. We already have one example of an average quarterback this season putting up numbers against this Tide defense with Zach Calzada, but I doubt Nick Saban lets something like that happen again. Calzada was the only QB this season to top 23 fantasy points against the Bama this season. Projected at just 19 fantasy points this week, I’ll be fading Hooker and live with the results if he pops off.
Sounds as though the Vols will have both Tiyon Evans and Jabari Small available to them on Saturday. Evans is considered questionable, but seeing some indications he’ll give it a go, while Small played 80 snaps last week, but has a lingering shoulder injury. Tennessee has the fifth-most carries in FBS, and the offensive line has performed well without one of their key pieces in Cade Mays as they rank 17th in Line Yards and 8th in Rush Play Success Rate. The Tide can match strengths with the Vols, ranking 20th in in Success Rate on the ground defensively and allow just 10 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Could see some lower ownership numbers here which make them GPP viable.
UT rotates four receivers, but the two primaries are Cedric Tillman and Velus Jones Jr. who combined for 13 receptions on 17 targets vs. Ole Miss last week. Jones has accounted for at least six catches in each of the last three weeks, while Tillman has also seen a bump in targets (22) over that three-week span with a pair of touchdowns. JaVonta Payton is on the field the same amount as those two, but converted on just 45.5 percent of his total targets (22). His touchdown streak came to an end last week at four straight.
Alabama:
No way of knowing for sure, but most of the Tennessee beat writers expect the Vols to play two deep safeties and force Bryce Young and this offense to methodically march down the field. Easier said than done. That defensive strategy should bode well for RB1 Brian Robinson Jr. who’s taken on the workhorse role since the Jase McCellan injury, averaging 29 touches per game over the last three weeks. The Vols’ run defense has played well at times, including their Week 5 performance against Missouri, holding Tyler Badie and Co. to under 75 yards. They’ve also been gashed by both Florida and Ole Miss, allowing over 275 total yards on the ground. What’s the similarity between those two performances? It was Emory Jones and Matt Corral giving the Vols fits, not the running backs. I trust the workload for Robinson this week and the 28-point projection, but just one running back has topped 20 fantasy points against UT this year.
With that in mind, might we see Young force the issue a bit more with his legs this week? He did a bit against Mississippi State with 18 yards on six carries, but I don’t think we can count on rushing production here. Floor is extremely high as Young has had three or more passing touchdowns in six of the seven games played. Tennessee has allowed three 30+ point performances this season to opposing QBs, but two were the aforementioned Corral/Jones who did damage with their legs. No difference in projections between Jameson Williams and John Metchie. Minimal disparity in targets with 20 for Metchie and 15 for Williams in the last two weeks. Where I think I’d side with Metchie is the potential defensive game-plan of two-high safeties for the Vols if those beat writers are correct. If Williams isn’t beating teams over the top, his value decreases. Both are obviously still in play – just trying to find an edge of choosing one or the other. Tight end Jahleel Billingsley is a GPP play only with six targets in the last two games, resulting in goose eggs. Tennessee has had some trouble defending the position this season, allowing 8.1 FPPG.
San Diego State @ Air Force
Point-Spread: AF -3
O/U Total: 39
Weather: 59 degrees / 2% rain / 8 mph winds
San Diego State:
Why is this game on the Night Slate with this total? If Greg Bell couldn’t run find running room against San Jose State, he’s in for a long night against this Air Force defense that is allowing just 10.8 FPPG to opposing RB1s, and just one 100-yard rusher so far. In matchups like this, I typically lean towards the advanced data which, again, favors Air Force here as SDSU is just 77th in Rush Play Success Rate and 87th in Line Yards. Conversely, Air Force has a slight edge sitting 65th in Defensive Rush Play Success Rate but is 45th in Stuff Rate and 10th in Rush Play PPA. No interest in quarterback Jordan Brookshire. Wide receiver Jesse Matthews got a small price bump after finding the end-zone twice last week. 6-foot-6 tight end Daniel Bellinger is the team’s most talented pass-catcher with seven receptions on 11 targets in the last two games.
Air Force:
While I prefer the Air Force ground game in this matchup, the Aztecs have been equally good, if not better, at stopping the run, allowing the fewest fantasy points to running back in the country so far this season. Brad Roberts has taken over the top spot nationally, averaging 25.4 att/g and has topped 20 fantasy points in each of the last three games. Worth spending $7,400 to roster him? I don’t see it, despite his 20-point projection. San Diego State is 1st in Rush Play PPA, 1st in Rush Play Success Rate, 1st in Rush Play Explosiveness. That’s a lot of firsts. Maybe Air Force takes to the air more given the matchup? Micah Davis is too expensive at $5k, but only averages around eight touches a game as a receiver and rusher. Do we look to QB Haaziq Daniels at $6,200 as a punt play? In Roberts’ worst performance of the season against FAU, Daniels did have a season-high 164 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. With the Aztecs keying in on Roberts, will that open up opportunities for Daniels? Maybe we just stop overthinking this and avoid the matchup with a 39 o/u total.
South Carolina @ Texas A&M
Point-Spread: A&M -19.5
O/U Total: 45.5
Weather: 77 degrees / 4% rain / 13 mph winds
South Carolina:
Implied total of 12 and we’re back to the former team manager in Zeb Noland after Luke Doty had season-ending surgery, so this is mostly a stay-away spot. A&M is allowing 18.8 FPPG to opposing QBs this season, and have really shut down everyone outside of the upper-echelon fantasy options. South Carolina is banged up in the backfield where MarShon Lloyd and Kevin Harris have practiced this week and will be on the trip, but both nursing ankle injuries. Zaquandre White doesn’t sound like he’s 100 percent either. Juju McDowell didn’t even get a carry last week. If you struggle to run on Vanderbilt, you won’t have a good time with the Aggies. Heavy tight end usage last week with Jaheim Bell and Nick Muse combining for eight receptions on 12 targets with two of the three receiving touchdowns. Not a one-off either as the two combined for 11 targets the prior week as well. At receiver, Jalen Brooks is out, so we’re looking at Josh Vann, Xavier Legette and Dakereon Joyner. The trio combined for 19 targets a week ago. Just providing some context – not advising starting anyone here.
Texas A&M:
I don’t mind Zach Calzada here at $6,800, as he’s looked improved over the last two weeks with five passing touchdowns, but teams have struggled at times throwing the ball against this South Carolina defense. Allowing just 18.8 FPPG to opposing QBs and 66th in Pass Play Success Rate. Much easier to dominate the Gamecocks on the ground where Georgia, Kentucky and Tennessee all averaged over five yards a carry as a team in recent weeks. USC isn’t Missouri so I don’t think both Isaiah Spiller and Devon Achane both run wild, but we’ll want exposure to at least one option here in the backfield, with the lean towards Spiller as he’s dominated the volume in most games this year. Achane provides added value with his receiving ability, averaging three targets per game with 18 receptions. At receiver, we get a major price bump for Ainias Smith at $6,300 after scoring a combined 45 fantasy points in the last two weeks. Always an option as the No. 1 target for the Aggies, but sounds as though vertical threat Caleb Chapman could be back this week which adds another body to the mix. Targets were really spread out last week in the Mizzou blowout with seven different players tallying between 3-4 targets. Do we see similar distribution this week in what should be another wide margin on the scoreboard? Tight ends are averaging just 1.6 FPPG this season against South Carolina this year and we don’t have a strong projection on Jalen Wydermyer at just 9.7 fantasy points so probably avoiding there. His targets have dropped since the first month of the season.
NC State @ Miami
Point-Spread: NC St -3.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Weather: 79 degrees / 38% rain / 7 mph winds
NC State:
We don’t have a NC State player with a projection above 19 fantasy points this week, so not a ton of interest here because of how spread out the projection is at both receiver and running back. We knew coming into the season that NC State will share carries in the backfield between Ricky Person and Zonovan Knight, no matter the talent discrepancy between the two players. It’s a near dead-even split between the two in terms of rushing attempts this season. NC State should have the edge in the trenches, ranking 20th in Line Yards, taking on one of the worst tackling teams in the country, but the division of carries continues to put a cap on both player’s value.
Quarterback Devin Leary is one of the most underrated players in the country, completing over 61 percent of his passes in every game this season with 15 touchdowns and just two interceptions. Because he doesn’t offer any upside with his legs, the fantasy value with Leary is limited. His best performance against Clemson where he threw for four touchdowns resulted in just 22.3 fantasy points because of -22 yards rushing and a lost fumble. Bust rate is extremely low so don’t mind him in any DFS format, but you know what you’re getting here for better or worse. Miami is 75th in Pass Play Success Rate defensively and the second worst coverage team in the ACC per Pro Football Focus. They have had some success in recent weeks, holding a pair of elite fantasy QBs in Brennan Armstrong and Sam Howell to just three passing touchdowns combined. Think of NC State receivers like you do the Oregon receivers, just with better production. Emeka Emezie is the team’s WR1 but has been quiet of late with six catches in the last two games. Thayer Thomas has been consistent with at least four receptions in each of the last five games with four TDs in the span. WR3 Devin Carter averages five targets a game, with three receiving scores in the last three weeks.
Miami:
Projections hate Tyler Van Dyke again this week at just 16 fantasy points, and hard to argue after he completed just 44 percent of his throws with three interceptions against a below average North Carolina defense. NC State’s pass defense is allowing just 201 yards per game this season and second in the ACC in pass efficiency. I don’t know what happened against Louisiana Tech where they allowed 40 fantasy points to Austin Kendall, but have been solid otherwise, allowing 22.1 FPPG to opposing QBs and 17th in Pass Play Success Rate. The Wolfpack also lead the ACC in interceptions. I initially thought that with a new quarterback, he’ll lean on his safety valves that play close to the LOS – aka Mike Harley and his tight ends. Not the case as he’s peppered both Charleston Rambo and Keyshawn Smith with targets since taking over. Rambo was silent for the most part last week with 4-35-0, but has had at least eight targets in every game aside from Central Connecticut State. Not sure what led to this outcome, but Smith was targeted 15 times (!) with seven receptions against UNC last week. I’ll have to talk with Joe because the 1.6 fantasy projection there is off unless I missed some news. I think all three receivers are in play here with a positive game script and their pricing is very reasonable. No need whatsoever to pair with TVD.
I think I’ll be fading Jaylan Knighton, for the most part, on this slate with how good the NC State rush defense is. Yes, I know Knighton will be getting most of the volume now that Cam’Ron Harris is out for the season, but the Wolfpack are 6th in Rush Play Success Rate and they haven’t allowed a 100-yard rusher all season. For context, NC State hasn’t faced a team yet this year ranked in the Top 60 nationally in rushing either, so competition has played a part in their success. Is Knighton capable of breaking out here? Won’t get any help from the offensive line that is 116th in Line Yards and just 83rd in Rush Play Success Rate. Knighton gives us value as a pass-catcher – 2-73-1 last week vs. UNC on three targets so he doesn’t have to get it all done on the ground.
West Virginia @ TCU
Point-Spread: TCU -4.5
O/U Total: 57.5
Weather: 80 degrees / 1% rain / 17 mph winds
West Virginia:
I hate that we are seeing the same drop-off in production from Leddie Brown that we saw a year ago. Averaging under four yards a carry in each of the last three games with a single rushing touchdown. I don’t care. I’m firing up Leddie this week against a TCU run defense that has allowed the most fantasy points in the country to opposing RB1s this season at 28.7 FPPG and 102nd in Rush Play Success Rate defensively. Maybe a moot point, but I also like WVU coming off a week of rest here in preparation for this matchup trying to fix some of the long-standing issues, including the offensive line that is 90th in Line Yards. I’d stay away from the West Virginia passing game as Jarret Doege is on the verge of being replaced by backup Garrett Greene, who has seen reps in the past few games. WRs again here are just like Oregon, but marginally better production. Winston Wright is the safest option and our highest projected at 12.3 fantasy points, but with the target share distributed evenly between the top four, I’d rather take a shot on someone like Isaiah Esdale, Sam James or Bryce Ford-Wheaton. Esdale is the most intriguing of that group at $3,800. Snap counts have remained consistent for him over the last four games, but targets have jumped over the last two (12) with 11 receptions and a 100-yard performance against Texas Tech.
TCU:
Injuries to monitor here before game time but sounded as though both Max Duggan and Zach Evans should be available this week. We’ll see pregame how they’re looking. Evans makes me weary because of how Keandre Miller has played in his absence and Gary Patterson’s previous habits to distribute carries. We’ve seen one running back dominate most of the touches in the backfield this season finally, but if Evans isn’t 100 percent, do we get a timeshare? The other question…does it matter? Evans is talented, yes, so the level of defense shouldn’t necessarily matter, and had four-straight 100-yard performances prior to the injury. BUT, the West Virginia run defense is very good as well, ranking 27th in Rush Play Success Rate, 16th in Defensive Line Yards and 18th overall. No running back has scored more than 19 fantasy points against the Mountaineers this season. Want to know why that’s the case. Mountaineers are allowing just 0.73 yards per carry when teams get into the red-zone this season. Absurd. I think we need a full clearance of health pregame in order to feel comfortable with rostering Evans, but could be a leverage play in GPPs if players are scared off by the injury.
Duggan is coming off one of the better performances of his career last week against Oklahoma, so his pricing is up at $7,800. Decent projection of 24.8 fantasy points, facing a West Virginia defense coming off their worst performance of the year, allowing 47 fantasy points to Gerry Bohanon in the blowout loss two weeks ago. The Mountaineers are giving up 27.8 FPPG to opposing QBs this season, and 80th in Pass Play Success Rate. Numbers are down slightly this year for Duggan on the ground, averaging just 10 rushing attempts per game (11.6 LY) and less than his season average in each of the last two weeks. At receiver, do we trust Quentin Johnston to replicate his three-touchdown performance from last week? Not even replicate, just give us one? That’s always been the issue with Johnston and this entire TCU passing game the last year and a half. Johnston will have a significant height advantage against the smaller WVU corners that stand just 5-foot-11. Derius Davis and Taye Barber saw the same number of snaps last week vs. Oklahoma with a combined seven targets.
USC @ Notre Dame
Point-Spread: ND -7.5
O/U Total: 59
Weather: 46 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
USC:
So we’ll start with the obvious in Drake London. Coming off his best performance of the season against a decent Utah defense with 16-162-1 and a season-high 20 targets! Averaging 14 targets per game on the season which dwarfs any other receiver in college football. Three of his five receiving touchdowns have come on the road this season. Notre Dame will obviously shadow London with two or three defenders, but guess what, other teams have already tried said strategy and it hasn’t mattered. WR1s are averaging 18.3 FPPG against the Irish this season, but they’ve been all shapes and sizes between Devin Maddox, Alec Pierce, David Bell and others so nothing to glean there. The Irish pass defense is 33rd in Success Rate and 5th in Pass Play Explosiveness so I don’t expect yards to be easy to come by for the USC pass offense. For those reasons, I’ll be out on quarterback Kedon Slovis as there is at least the threat that Jaxson Dart could play this week. I don’t expect it, but am reading mixed reports as to whether or not Dart will be available. To his credit, Slovis has improved of late, completing 64 percent of his passes the last three games, and coming off a 28-point performance against Utah in Week 6. Notre Dame is allowing just 19 FPPG to opposing QBs on the season. Keaontay Ingram has taken the lead in the USC backfield, averaging 17 touches per game over the last three, but still seeing plenty of Vavae Malepeai and TCU transfer Darwin Barlow as well. I’d go in Ingram’s direction if choosing one, and his pricing on FanDuel is far more appealing, but the timeshare scares me off and Notre Dame is 26th in Rush Play Success Rate. Three remaining options in the USC passing game are Gary Bryant Jr., Tahj Washington and Texas transfer Malcolm Epps. Freshman tight end Michael Trigg is out due to injury, and Epps stepped in vs. Utah with 2-59-1 on three targets. Bryant Jr. has found the end-zone in three of the last four games with 22 targets in that span. Slot receivers Devin Maddox and Jackson Anthrop both posted 16+ fantasy points against the Irish earlier in the year.
Notre Dame:
Out on the quarterbacks here as Brian Kelly is intent on rotating Jack Coan and Tyler Buchner. If Coan was the quarterback for the entirety of the game, I could potentially make the argument that Cam Rising, Chance Nolan and Tanner McKee all topped 30 fantasy points against this same USC defense this year, and they’re not much of an improvement over the Irish QB. The Trojans are dreadful against the pass, ranking 127th in Pass Play Success Rate. If we like the Notre Dame passing game potentially, but out on the quarterbacks, maybe we look to the receivers? Michael Mayer will be full go this week with a healthy projection at 15 fantasy points. Like his salary more on FanDuel. The Trojans have not fared well against opposing tight ends this season, allowing 10.1 FPPG. Kevin Austin Jr., Avery Davis and Braden Lenzy are dominating the snap count share among the receivers, with Austin projected at 11.1 points this week. Davis has been targeted 23 times in the last three games alone. The Trojans can be stingy when it comes to defending the run, ranking 32nd in Rush Play Success Rate and haven’t allowed an opposing RB to top 18 fantasy points in a game all season. Notre Dame’s offensive line continues to rate poorly, ranking 127th in Line Yards and 129th in Stuff Rate. So I’m conflicted with Kyren Williams. The projections say that shouldn’t be the case with Williams at 23.2 fantasy points this week, including 103 yards on the ground. That increases my interest in GPPs at $7,200 where I don’t think he’ll see a high ownership rate. Williams continues to be a major factor in the passing game with 19 receptions on 21 targets.
Georgia Tech @ Virginia
Point-Spread: UVA -6.5
O/U Total: 65.5
Weather: 57 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
Georgia Tech:
Jeff Sims and Jahmyr Gibbs popped for me when looking at the projections this week. Biggest cause for concern for me with Gibbs is the offensive line that has dealt with a number of injuries, and the results have been inconsistent as a result. 118th in Rush Play Success Rate and 88th in Line Yards. Maybe Gibbs doesn’t get things going on the ground, but can make up for it as a pass-catcher with 207 receiving yards in the last two games with nine targets in that span. Has had at least two receptions in every game this season. Virginia is dead last in the ACC at 188 YPG allowed on the ground, and giving up 20.4 FPPG to opposing RB1s. That also works in the favor of Sims who has four rushing TDs since being re-instituted as the starting quarterback. Still an enigma as a thrower, completing 63 percent of his passes with six TDs in the last three games, but still is turning the ball over at a high rate. UVA is a middle-of-the-road pass defense, allowing 26.1 FPPG to opposing QBs, and are 93rd in Pass Play Success Rate. Have forced just four interceptions this season which helps the cause for Sims. Kyric McGowan and Malachi Carter as the safest options at WR, tied for the team lead with 30 targets a pieice. McGowan sits atop the leaderboard with four receiving touchdowns. Aside from those two, we’ve seen a rotation of Nate McCollum, Kalani Norris and Adonicas Sanders, but the production/snap counts are far from consistent. Realistically, our focus is Sims, Gibbs, and a sprinkle of McGowan. That’s it.
Virginia:
Feel like we’ve had Virginia on a DFS slate so much that there isn’t much more I can add here that we don’t already know. Brennan Armstrong has attempted 100 more passes than the next closest ACC quarterback this season so we never worry about passing volume. Averaging six less rushing attempts this year compared to last due to lingering knee issues. Favorable matchup against a Georgia Tech pass defense that is 92nd in Pass Success Rate and allowing 27 FPPG to opposing QBs. Tech has been very good at stopping the run, so I do wonder if they’ll drop another defender into coverage as they don’t really have to worry about the UVA run game. The Hoos are 123rd in the country in rush attempts per game so we aren’t focused one bit at the UVA backfield. Nobody had more than five carries last week against Duke. Latest I’ve seen, everyone is healthy at receiver so expect to see your usual suspects in Billy Kemp, Dontayvian Wicks, Jelani Woods and football player Keytaon Thompson. That foursome combined for 35 of the 43 targets against the Blue Devils – and that was in a blowout situation. Ra’Shaun Henry was relegated to his backup role with just two targets. Tech is allowing 10.1 FPPG to opposing TE’s this season and Woods does have an enticing price point on FanDuel. All four are viable.
Ohio State @ Indiana
Point-Spread: OSU -21
O/U Total: 59.5
Weather: 51 degrees / 24% rain / 5 mph winds
Ohio State:
No hotter offense in the country than the Buckeyes who are now the highest-scoring team in the nation, scoring at least 40 points in five of six games and 50+ in the last three. After the results of the early games, should we be worried about a team going on the road, coming off a bye week, with a massive game the following week against Penn State. We are seeing plenty of examples today already of teams looking ahead. Beating the Indiana offense is a bit easier through the air as the Hoosiers are 61st in Pass Play Success Rate, allowing over 24 FPPG to opposing QBs. CJ Stroud has been on a tear since reclaiming his starting job, tossing five touchdowns in each of the last two games. I’m still a bit tentative because this Indiana defense held Bailey Zappe, Desmond Ridder and Payton Thorne well below their seasonal averages. The Hoosiers are also an above-average run defense, ranking 36th in Rush Play Success Rate, and held Kenneth Walker to just 3.65 YPC last week. Difference here being the elite Ohio State offensive line that is 3rd in Line Yards, 13th in Stuff Rate and 16th in Rush Play Success Rate. TreVeyon Henderson’s workload has been sporadic with three consecutive blowouts, and it sounds as though Miyan Williams could potentially be back this week. His return could result in a depressed ownership rate for Henderson. On the year, Indiana is allowing just 14.1 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Minimal difference in the projections for Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson. Olave has five TDs in the last three weeks. Wilson’s been equally productive with six TDs in six games, but is seeing a decline in his targets, averaging just five in the last three weeks. Seems to coincide with WR3 Jaxon Smith-Njigba who has had at least six targets in each game during that three-game span.
Indiana:
I wouldn’t get cute with Indiana players today aside from some of the pass-catchers. Since the Oregon loss, Ryan Day made a staff change that has led to improved results, allowing just 12.3 PPG over the last three games. The secondary play has captained the resurgence with nine interceptions. Looks like Jack Tuttle will get another start this week and is one of our lowest projected QB of the slate at just 12.7 fantasy points. Not surprising given his performance a week ago, throwing for just 188 yards and two interceptions on 52 attempts. Woof. In what should be a similar game script, that aids the Indiana pass-catchers, primarily Ty Fryfogle and Peyton Hendershot. With DJ Matthews out for the season, Fryfogle has moved back to the slot and has had three-straight games of double-digit targets, with at least eight targets in every game this season. Same goes for Hendershot who is inexpensive at $3,800 with 21 of his 24 receptions coming in the last four games. I wouldn’t go after any other Indiana receivers but just to cover our bases, Javon Swinton had six targets against the Spartans. Miles Marshall had a season high nine targets with 19 total in the last three games. I don’t have a ton of interest in Stephen Carr at running back against an Ohio State rush defense that is 10th in Run Play Success Rate. Hoosiers are 100th in Line Yards and the 12th ranked run offense in the Big Ten. The biggest proponent for Carr is that he will see ALL the carries in the Indiana backfield – we love volume – and had a season high nine targets last week which boosts his value if we think Indiana will have a similar game script.