Texas vs. Kentucky
- Point-Spread: Tex -12
- O/U Total: 43
- Implied Score: Tex 27.5 – UK 15.5
- Weather: 73 degrees / 18% rain / 10 mph winds
Texas:
Top Play(s) – RB Tre Wisner ($6,500) Wisner is slightly underpriced on DK and severely underpriced on FanDuel, so proceed accordingly. CJ Baxter is doubtful and unlikely to play, while we got news this week that backup Jerrick Gibson is no longer with the program after getting just one rushing attempt in the last two games. Wisner didn’t find the end-zone vs. Oklahoma last week, but accounted for 22 of the 27 rushing attempts that went to Texas RBs. If the Longhorns have rushing touchdowns on Saturday night, the only player likely to vulture them away is Arch Manning.
Fade – QB Arch Manning ($8,500) Two squads in the bottom half of the country in pace, with a Kentucky team that is going to want to slow the game down drastically to limit possessions because the offense cannot hang with the Longhorns. If you’re spending up to this level of salary, you’d be better off going with options in matchups that could potentially shoot out like USC / ND or Pitt / Syracuse. Manning has yet to score more than 21 fantasy points this season against a P4 opponent.
Pivot Play – WRs. No Texas pass-catcher had more than 55 yards last week against Oklahoma with the targets evenly dispersed amongst the starters. Boundary receivers have given the Kentucky defense the most issues this season with Ole Miss’ Harrison Wallace and South Carolina’s Vandrevius Jacobs both topping 100 yards receiver against the Wildcats. Eastern Michigan’s Terry Lockett Jr. also had 90 yards and a score. Ryan Wingo and Emmett Mosley were the primary boundary receivers against Oklahoma last week.
Injury Notes – RB CJ Baxter (doubtful)
Kentucky:
Top Play(s) – WR Kendrick Law ($3,900) The former Alabama transfer has seen an uptick in production the last two games with 11 or his 19 receptions this season coming in that two-week span. Law’s speed can be a difference maker against any defense and you’d figure game script should work in favor of the receivers with Kentucky being a double-digit dog.
Fade – QB Cutter Boley ($6,000) Needs no explanation. The Longhorns are allowing just 9.5 FPPG to quarterbacks this season.
Bargain Bin – WR Ja’Mori Maclin ($3,300) or WR Hardley Gilmore IV ($3,300) Law has been the most productive Kentucky receiver lately, but the Wildcats are typically in 12 personnel for three fourths of the game, playing primarily two tight ends on the field. That means two WRs on the field, which have been mostly Maclin and Gilmore. Limit all lineups to just one Kentucky wideout, preferably none.
Pivot Play – RB Seth McGowan ($4,600) McGowan should really be the only Kentucky running back getting carries as Dante Dowdell has averaged less than 2 yards per carry in each of the last two games. McGowan struggled against Georgia but had scored a touchdown in each of his previous four games prior to that. Texas is allowing just 14 FPPG to opposing backfields, so limit any exposure you have to McGowan.
Injury Notes – RB Jamarion Wilcox (out), WR Troy Stellato (questionable)
Penn State vs. Iowa
- Point-Spread: Iowa -3
- O/U Total: 40
- Implied Score: Iowa 21.5 – PSU 18.5
- Weather: 65 degrees / 41% rain / 8 mph winds
Penn State:
Top Play(s) – RB Kaytron Allen ($5,600) Allen has been just about the only positive development this season for the Nittany Lions, having found the end-zone in every single game to date. Iowa ranks No. 1 in the B1G in yards allowed per game on the ground, having limited all three conference opponents faced to under four yards a carry. Allen is the top play for Penn State, but far from a top option on the slate.
Fade – RB Nick Singleton ($6,000) At this point in the year, with Singleton already having been “demoted” to RB2, it would not surprise us to see him soft-out to preserve whatever NFL future he might have now that the Penn State season is in the trash bin. Singleton does have six rushing touchdowns but is averaging three yards per carry less than his backfield counterpart.
Best of the Rest – WR Devonte Ross ($3,800) Ross had his best performance of the season last week, converting on all seven of his targets for 115 yards. No other Penn State pass-catcher had more than 10 receiving yards against Northwestern. WR Kyron Hudson ($4,200) and WR Trebor Pena’s ($3,600) playing time hasn’t changed much week to week, so they remain longshot options, but we don’t know for certain how the rotations will be with the head coach no longer around. That’s probably not a risk worth taking with this lifeless offense.
Injury Notes – n/a
Iowa:
Wash, rinse, repeat…. RB Kamari Moulton ($6,900) is the only notable name to know on the Iowa side, facing a Penn State defense that has fallen to 15th in the B1G in yards allowed per game on the ground. Maybe the team rallies after James Franklin’s firing, but the Nittany Lions had multiple opportunities to save their season after the Oregon loss…and failed miserably. If you predict a blowout, which is entirely possible for a downtrodden team at night at Kinnick Stadium, perhaps RB Xavier Williams ($3,300) becomes an option as he rushed for 55 yards and two scores last week in the beatdown of Wisconsin.
Maryland vs. UCLA
- Point-Spread: UCLA -3.5
- O/U Total: 51.5
- Implied Score: UCLA 27.5 – MD 24
- Weather: 78 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Maryland:
Top Play(s) – WR Shaleak Knotts ($3,800) or WR Octavian Smith Jr. ($3,700) Maryland is 6th in the country and 1st in the Big Ten in pass play percentage at a 61% clip. Knotts and Smith lead the Terps in routes run this season, while tied for second on the team in targets (35). Knotts gets the edge given the touchdown disparity between the two as he leads the team with five scores, while Smith has yet to find the end-zone.
Fade – RBs. Maryland has the worst rush offense in the B1G, and while UCLA currently still ranks near the bottom of the country in run defense, they’ve improved significantly during this mini win streak. Not a complete fade because they’re relatively inexpensive but limit your interest in DeJuan Williams or Nolan Ray in what appears to be a hot-hand situation with no clear-cut starter between the two.
Pivot Play – TE Dorian Fleming ($5,500) Shame that Fleming isn’t cheaper and priced in the range of the Maryland receivers. UCLA has cleaned up their act a bit, but have been cooked this season by opposing tight ends, allowing nearly 17 FPPG to the position. Four different tight ends facing the Bruins this season have recorded at least 35 receiving yards and a touchdown in their respective matchups.
Best of the Rest – QB Malik Washington ($7,300) Like Washington here as a potential QB option that goes overlooked by the masses in DFS. UCLA’s resurgence should lead to a back and forth, competitive matchup, while the Bruins still rank near the bottom of the country in almost every single defensive statistical category. Add that Maryland cannot run the football, and we expect a high number of passes thrown on Saturday evening. WR Jalil Farooq ($5,000) is a pivot option away from the cheaper Maryland receivers, as he leads the team in targets (39) and receptions (27).
Injury Notes – n/a
UCLA:
Top Play(s) – QB Nico Iamaleava ($7,800) Iamaleava has played his best two games as the Bruin in the last two weeks and potentially in his collegiate career. While the offensive revival has been fun to witness, the issue for DFS is they’re starting to get contributions from everyone. Good for UCLA, not so good for fantasy purposes. Iamaleava only scored 19 fantasy points vs. Michigan State last week but did not need to utilize his legs with UCLA having a comfortable lead. That’s unlikely to be the case on Saturday with the spread being just a field goal.
Fade – WR Mikey Matthews ($3,600) Matthews has fallen out of favor with the UCLA WR room being at full strength. The Utah transfer was targeted four times last week against MSU but came in the second half with the game in hand already. Matthews has played just 34% of the team’s offensive snaps over the last three weeks.
Bargain Bin – WR Rico Flores Jr. ($3,000) Flores’ production isn’t jumping off the page with just 10 catches in three games, but has been on the field 85% of the time in that span since coming back from injury. WR Titus Mokiao-Atimalala ($3,100) has caught a touchdown in three of the last four games.
Pivot Play – RBs. Full-on committee here that also shares the rushing distribution with the quarterback, but we want a piece of the UCLA backfield with the way the Bruins have been churning out yards the last two games with a combined 500+ rushing yards and five touchdowns over the previous two weeks. Maryland is no slouch defending the run, having allowed just two rushing touchdowns the entire season, but did give up 176 yards to Emmett Johnson last weekend. RB Jalen Berger ($4,400) is the hot hand at the moment, coming off a three-touchdown performance against Michigan State, but how much of that was the coaching staff giving the former Spartan a revenge spot? Having some exposure to either Berger, RB Jaivian Thomas ($5,100) or RB Anthony Woods ($3,400) makes some sense here.
Best of the Rest – WR Kwazi Gilmer ($6,200) While I still have an affinity towards Gilmer from the preseason as a projected breakout player, it’s more fiscally responsible to roster one of the other UCLA receivers in this spot. Gilmer still leads the team in routes run, receptions (26) and targets (44), but has yet to score more than 20 points in a game this season.
Injury Notes – n/a
Tennessee vs. Alabama
- Point-Spread: Ala -8
- O/U Total: 58
- Implied Score: Ala 33 – Tenn 25
- Weather: 80 degrees / 11% rain / 10 mph winds
Tennessee:
Top Play(s) – n/a. We don’t have a Tennessee player projected to score over 20 fantasy points against the Tide, and don’t view any Vol as a must-own on the slate. Of the three SEC matchups for Saturday night, this is the one with the best chance to be a shootout, so while there may not be a top play, we’ll want some exposure.
Fade – QB Joey Aguilar ($8,100) Alabama has fared well against quarterbacks this season, allowing just 14 FPPG to the position. The Tide also do a great job at limiting explosives, allowing just 6.1 yards per attempt to opposing QBs. Not sure Aguilar is good enough to dink and dunk his way for extended drives against this Tide defense. Best use of Aguilar is likely with game stacks in GPPs with Alabama exposure.
Bargain Bin – RB Peyton Lewis ($3,200) Lewis rumbled for two touchdowns against Arkansas last week and his role could be expanded if DeSean Bishop is less than 100% after he was banged up late in the second half vs. the Razorbacks. Bishop is officially listed as probable, but one to watch in the pregame potentially. RB Star Thomas ($4,500) is also in play, especially if Bishop were to surprisingly miss the contest. Tennessee is fourth in the conference in rushing touchdowns (17), while facing the 13th ranked SEC defense in yards allowed per game on the ground.
Pivot Play – TE Miles Kitselman ($4,700) Kitselman’s usage is up the last two games with a combined nine receptions on 16 targets. The Tide allowed 38 yards and a touchdown last week to Missouri tight end Brett Norfleet, though are limiting opposing TEs to just 6.5 FPPG.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Not a lot of separation between Tennessee’s top three receivers, all of which have between 25 and 32 catches on the season. Chris Brazzell gets top billing in projections with his 7 receiving touchdowns, but it could be any one of Brazzell, Mike Matthews or Braylon Staley any given week. The leading receiver for Alabama’s last four opponents have all played on the boundary (outside), which would favor either Brazzell or Matthews.
Injury Notes – RB DeSean Bishop (probable)
Alabama:
Top Play(s) – WR Germie Bernard ($5,900) and / or WR Isaiah Horton ($4,500) Every Alabama receiver is unpriced, except for the one that had zero yards receiving last week against Missouri (see below). Sounds like this could be a high scoring affair, but one that could be limited on possessions as both sides will attempt to limit any explosive plays. That plays into the hands of a Germie Bernard who tends to operate with short to intermediate routes in the middle of the field. I’d look to have one Bama wideout in all of my lineups.
Fade – WR Ryan Williams ($7,200) Not sure exactly what’s going on here but Williams played a season-low 36% of snaps last seek against Missouri and was held without a catch. Some will undoubtedly be tempted to play Williams after remembering his performance last year against the Vols with 8 catches for 73 yards and a touchdown on 19 targets. But quite frankly, Alabama doesn’t need Williams to thrive offensively with Germie Bernard, Isaiah Horton and the emergence of Lotzeir Brooks.
Bargain Bin – Freshmen. Kevin Riley could see an increased role this week with Jam Miller less than 100%, but Miller was upgraded to probable on Thursday so he’s likely to play. Lotzeir Brooks’ role continues to expand as Ryan Williams sees less and less playing time, tying his season-highs last week with four catches on six targets for 58 yards. He’s an option at min pricing.
Pivot Play – RB Jam Miller ($8,600) Probably cannot risk playing Miller in this scenario as the second-highest priced running back on the slate with possible injury concerns. That said, he’s the prototypical pivot play that will be severely under-owned. Tennessee’s secondary grabs the headlines for their poor play, but the metrics show that the run defense is actually worse, ranking 110th in success rate. If we get word that Miller is less than 100%, Kevin Riley jumps to the top of the list of potential bargain bin options.
Best of the Rest – QB Ty Simpson ($8,700) High floor option with one of the Heisman frontrunners as Simpson has scored 19 or more fantasy points in all six of his starts, facing one of the worst secondaries in the conference. Two of the three SEC quarterbacks Tennessee has faced this season have both scored more than 30 fantasy points against the Vols.
Injury Notes – RB Jam Miller (probable)
Pittsburgh vs. Syracuse
- Point-Spread: Pitt -10.5
- O/U Total: 54.5
- Implied Score: Pitt 32.5 – Syr 22
- Weather: Dome
Pittsburgh:
Top Play(s) – RB Desmond Reid ($6,600) The last-minute pivot to Reid paid off in spades for folks, scoring 40+ points in the win over Florida State, looking like the 2024 version of Desmond Reid that was a top five fantasy back. Reid is again listed as questionable this week, but as we saw last Saturday, that doesn’t mean anything when it comes to the star running back. Syracuse doesn’t do much of anything well defensively, so Reid should be able to exploit the Orange defense both as a runner and receiver. Syracuse is giving up around 37 FPPG to opposing backfields.
Fade – RB Juelz Goff ($3,900) It appears Goff may have lost his RB2 job to 4-star freshman Ja’Kyrian Turner, who wound up rushing for 44 yards and two scores against FSU last Saturday. Only way Goff hits value this week is due to injury, which we cannot predict.
Bargain Bin – WR Cataurus Hicks ($3,000) Feast or famine this season for Hicks, and mostly famine lately with exactly zero receiving yards in each of the last two games. The only argument in favor of Hicks is that he’s still on the field as Pitt does not rotate at receiver, playing over 60% of the offensive snaps.
Pivot Play – RB Ja’Kyrian Turner ($4,100) We know at 175 pounds that Desmond Reid cannot handle a 20-carry workload on a weekly basis, especially if getting 10+ targets in the passing game. Turner spelled Reid throughout the game last week, running for two scores and was prevalent in the passing game as well, with four receptions on five targets. He’s the heir apparent to Reid after this season.
Best of the Rest – QB Mason Heintschel ($9,100) The freshman passed another test last weekend, going on the road and leading the Panthers to an upset victory over Florida State. It was far from perfect, tossing two interceptions and two fumbles, but the fantasy production was there, throwing for over 300 yards while adding another 82 yards on the ground. There’s a limited amount of QB options on the slate, so spending up for Heintschel does make some sense. Syracuse did have two weeks to prepare for the freshman coming off their bye week which gives me some pause.
Injury Notes – RB Desmond Reid (questionable)
Syracuse:
Top Play(s) – WR Johntay Cook ($6,100) Yes, Syracuse is a train wreck without Steve Angeli, but Rickie Collins seems to prefer throwing to Cook more than any other wideout, now with 31 targets combined over the last three games.
Fade – RB Yasin Willis ($6,300) Pitt has the No. 1 rush defense in the ACC, allowing just 83.5 yards per game on the ground, are 9th nationally in rush D success rate and are giving up a combined 19 FPPG to opposing backfields. Willis might get there on pure volume, and there are injuries mounting on the Pitt defense, but the matchup and projection doesn’t dictate playing Willis.
Bargain Bin – TE Dan Villari ($3,400) Good matchup against a Pitt defense that is allowing a ton of fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season (17.9). And if by off chance Rickie Collins ever went down with injury (hope not, but if…) Villari would probably be the next guy off the bench, as he played wildcat QB for the team two seasons ago.
Pivot Play – QB Rickie Collins ($7,100) It might be ugly, and you could be second-guessing yourself the minute the game starts, but there’s reason to possibly play Collins here. First and foremost, both teams want to play fast, ranked in the top 30 in plays per game – Syracuse is second nationally at 80 plays per game. Collins showed off his legs last time out against SMU with 82 yards on seven attempts. Game script is in Collins’ favor as a double-digit dog. And Syracuse loves to throw the ball, ranked 15th in the country in pass play rate. As the saying goes in CFF and CFB DFS, you can suck as player and still be a good fantasy option.
Best of the Rest – WR Darrell Gill Jr. ($4,000) Darrell Gill yards against Colgate – 152. Darrell Gill yards in the three games since Colgate – 73. Gill could be an option if Syracuse is without Justus Ross-Simmons who is questionable for Saturday.
Injury Notes – WR Justus Ross-Simmons (questionable)
USC vs. Notre Dame
- Point-Spread: ND -9.5
- O/U Total: 60.5
- Implied Score: ND 35 – USC 25.5
- Weather: 66 degrees / 76% rain / 11 mph winds
USC:
Top Play(s) – RB King Miller ($3,000) Mispricing by DraftKings (FanDuel is accurate) not accounting for the fact that Waymond Jordan is out for at least a month and his backup, Eli Sanders, is expected to miss the rest of the season due to injury. Miller stepped in to rush for 158 yards and a touchdown vs. a Michigan run defense that was in the top half of the Big Ten prior to Saturday. Salary relief is the biggest reason to roster Miller, not necessarily the matchup as this is a Notre Dame defense that limited one of the nation’s leading rushers to under 50 yards on the ground last week in NC State’s Daylan Smothers.
Fade – QB Jayden Maiava ($8,500) The ND defense is trending upwards in a big way, both against the run and the pass, holding the last three opponents to just one passing touchdown with eight interceptions. We’re also looking at cooler temperatures and an 80% chance of rain.
Bargain Bin – WR Ja’Kobi Lane ($4,600) USC doesn’t have a third and fourth option in the passing game like they have in previous seasons, so rostering Lane or Makai Lemon are really the only options. Lane is again underpriced, as he made his return against Michigan following a nagging injury, and caught a touchdown on seven targets. His 79.7% snaps played in Week 7 were the most since Week 4, so Lane is healthy.
Pivot Play – RB Bryan Jackson ($3,500) Every USC game preview you read has King Miller as the starter. And rightly so after the performance last week against Michigan. But when you zoom out to look at Miller vs. Jackson, we do have a walk-on (Miller) vs. a former 4-star recruit (Jackson). It is not out of the realm of possibilities that the recruiting services were accurate, and Jackson is the better talent of the two. He also looked good in spot duty, rushing for 35 yards and a score on five carries.
Best of the Rest – WR Makai Lemon ($7,400) Lemon is now second in the country behind Danny Scudero in receiving yards (682), while tied for seventh in receptions (44) and 12th in targets (56). Playing Lemon and Lane together in a lineup (without Maiava) is one option, as the duo combines for 51% of the team’s receiving production and eight of the 14 touchdowns. On average, Notre Dame is giving up 37 FPPG to opposing WR groups, which we would most certainly take if that’s what Lemon and Lane combined for on Saturday.
Injury Notes – RB Waymond Jordan (out), RB Eli Sanders (out)
Notre Dame:
Top Play(s) – RB Jeremiyah Love ($9,100) Highest projected running back on the slate and second highest projected running back of the entire weekend, behind only Jacksonville State’s Cam Cook who already rushed for three touchdowns in his mid-week matchup. Love is just ahead of Desmond Reid on projections by the ever-so-slightest of margins, which speaks to how good of a play Reid is at his modest $6.6k salary. USC is 127th nationally in rush D success rate.
Fade – QB CJ Carr ($8,300) The projection isn’t worth the cost at just 18.5 fantasy points. And the weather is going to be a serious issue. As of writing this, it looks like 68% chance of rain at game time and that percentage is only increasing as the game goes on. Expect to see a heavy dosage of Love and Price if that remains the case.
Bargain Bin – WR Will Pauling ($3,500) We’re seeing this all over the country with several examples of transfers starting to find their footing with their respective teams. Pauling is near the top of that list after a slow start, now having scored a touchdown in three straight games. The Wisconsin transfer had a season-high 105 yards last week against NC State.
Pivot Play – RB Jadarian Price ($5,400) If there is a situation to play Price, with or without Love in the same lineup, this is it. USC can’t defend the run, and the weather might force this to be a run-heavy offensive script for the Irish. Price can hit value in normal circumstances. This might not be normal circumstances if there is a downpour.
Best of the Rest – Remaining ND Pass-Catchers. The Irish has shortened their rotation at receiver, so the only options to choose from are Pauling, Malachi Fields or Jordan Faison. That trio played over three fourths of the game vs. NC State last week. KK Smith was the only other Irish receiver to record a reception last Saturday, and those came in garbage time with the game in hand. TE Eli Raridon ($4,400) posted a season-high 109 yards on seven receptions last week and plays over 95% of the team’s offensive snaps. The weather will determine how much we’re interested in the Notre Dame passing game.
Injury Notes – n/a
Missouri vs. Auburn
- Point-Spread: Mizz -2
- O/U Total: 44
- Implied Score: Mizz 23 – Aub 21
- Weather: 75 degrees / 2% rain / 7 mph winds
Missouri:
Top Play(s) – WR Kevin Coleman Jr. ($5,700) Missouri doesn’t have many options to choose from here with just two players projected to score double-digit fantasy points on Saturday. Tough sledding against Auburn in the run game, but teams can throw on the Tigers, allowing 226 YPG through the air. Coleman makes the most sense, particularly on DK with the PPR scoring settings, though even he’s struggled against SEC opponents so far with just 22 receiving yards in two conference matchups. Slot receivers have had some success against Auburn this season – Zachariah Branch had nine receptions vs. the Tigers last week, and Oklahoma’s Isaiah Sategna had 100+ yards with a TD.
Fade – RB Ahmad Hardy ($7,700) Hardy has been everything Missouri could have asked for out of the portal, but that came crashing to a halt when facing one of the upper echelon teams in the SEC, rushing for just 52 yards against the Tide last week. And Auburn is better against the run than Alabama is, ranked No. 1 in the country in rush D success rate. Tough to rationalize spending up for Hardy in this matchup, where he’s also splitting carries with RB Jamal Roberts ($4,200).
Bargain Bin – TE Brett Norfleet ($3,500) From a point per dollar standpoint, Norfleet might make the most sense among the Missouri options given he’s the team’s top red-zone threat with five receiving scores. Auburn is giving up 7.6 FPPG to tight ends this season.
Pivot Play – QB Beau Pribula ($6,600) Should have known that Pribula’s September performances were an illusion, beating up on bad defenses and G5 opponents. And while he’s come back to earth, Pribula has hit value from a fantasy standpoint against SEC foes, scoring 19 points against South Carolina and then 24.8 fantasy points last week against Alabama, with a combined 133 rushing yards in those two matchups. Auburn gives up just 14.5 FPPG to opposing QBs, but this is not a steep price to pay for a dual-threat quarterback.
Injury Notes – n/a
Auburn:
Top Play(s) – RB Jeremiah Cobb ($4,200) Missouri is No. 1 in the conference in rush yards allowed per game and giving up just 13.6 FPPG to running backs this season. The dynamic in the Auburn backfield has changed, though, with Damari Alston leaving the program. Maybe a freshman RB gets one or two carries, but the only player Cobb will really be sharing rushing attempts with now is Jackson Arnold. That’s worth playing at $4.2k even against a good / great run defense. RB Omar Mabson II ($3,000) likely slots into the RB2 role now.
Fade – QB Jackson Arnold ($7,700) When do we see Deuce Knight? It has to happen at some point, right? Arnold has failed to throw more than 200 yards in four of six games this season, with Hugh Freeze’s job hanging in the balance after a three-game losing streak. You know what can save jobs? A freshman quarterback beating an SEC opponent.
Bargain Bin – WR Perry Thompson ($3,200) The former 5-star got the start last week over Malcolm Simmons and was targeted six times against Georgia, resulting in minimal yardage. His 62% snaps played was the most Thompson has been on the field all season, which is particularly notable given it was against Georgia and not a cupcake.
Best of the Rest – WR Cam Coleman ($6,500) or WR Eric Singleton Jr. ($5,200) Missouri has a sound secondary, ranked third in the conference in yards allowed per game (151.2). But the Tigers are 117th in explosive plays allowed which Coleman or Singleton have the talent to exploit. Maximum one Auburn receiver per lineup given Arnold’s struggles.
Injury Notes – RB Damari Alston (out), RB Durell Robinson (out), WR Horatio Fields (out)
Utah vs. BYU
- Point-Spread: Utah -3.5
- O/U Total: 49.5
- Implied Score: Utah 26.5 – BYU 23
- Weather: 60 degrees / 1% rain / 2 mph winds
Utah:
Top Play(s) – QB Devon Dampier ($6,800) Dampier is underpriced on DraftKings and will be the QB I have the most exposure to on that platform. BYU defense is no slouch, ranked in the top third of the B12 in both run and pass defense, but Dampier has been excellent at taking what defenses give him this season, beating teams via his arm or legs. Opposing QBs are scoring just 15.5 FPPG against the Cougars this season, so Dampier isn’t a must-play, but the salary is too cheap for a dual threat quarterback. FanDuel, he’s not as much a priority.
Bargain Bin – TE Dallen Bentley ($4,000) The offensive coaching staff changed over the offseason, but the utilization of the tight end position remains a constant for Utah. Bentley is second on the team in routes run, targets (32), receptions (24) and first in touchdowns (3).
Pivot Play – RB NaQuari Rogers ($5,000) Utah has the eighth best rush offense in the country, so having exposure to Dampier or one of the Ute running backs makes some sense. But it is an evenly split 55-45 backfield between Rogers and his counterpart RB Wayshawn Parker ($4,800). Rogers holds a signficant edge over Parker in that he’s got a 21-12 advantage in red zone carries this season. Rogers is far likelier to find the end zone.
Best of the Rest – WR Ryan Davis ($5,800) Davis was a relative non-factor last week against Arizona State, because he didn’t have to be a factor in the 42-10 blowout in non-passing weather conditions. The weather forecast looks better this Saturday in Provo, and Davis remains the clear top target in the Utah passing game with 39 receptions on 46 targets. No other Utah receiver has more than nine catches this season.
Injury Notes – n/a
BYU:
Top Play(s) – RB LJ Martin ($8,000) We’re finally seeing what a healthy LJ Martin is capable of, with four 100-yard rushing performances in six games played. And the BYU staff seems to be ramping up his workload with 20+ rushing attempts in each of the last two games. In Utah’s lone loss this season to Texas Tech, they allowed 67 rushing yards and two touchdowns to Red Raider RB1 Cameron Dickey.
Bargain Bin – TE Carsen Ryan ($3,200) or WR Cody Hagen ($3,100) BYU ran tight rotations last week in a competitive matchup with Arizona and you’d think that would be no different here. Ryan and Hagen combined for just 11 yards and were targeted just three times each but were on the field for over 75% of the team’s offensive plays.
Pivot Play – QB Bear Bachmeier ($6,300) A 21-point projection at $6.3k would normally be an auto play. The Utah defense is the reason for pause, allowing just 13 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks this season. Bachmeier’s rushing ability is why he’s in play at this cost, with 234 yards in the last three games, and averaging 16 rushing attempts per game in conference play. Having two legitimate WRs to throw to has also been a huge development for this BYU passing attack.
Best of the Rest – WR Chase Roberts ($4,900) or WR Parker Kingston ($5,300) 60% of BYU’s receiving production and five of the eight receiving touchdowns have come from either Roberts or Kingston. The latter has emerged as a legitimate WR1B over the last two weeks with multiple 100-yard receiving performances. Boundary receivers have given Utah the most fits in the last three games, which would favor Roberts here, who also likely sees lower ownership because of Kingston’s recent emergence.
Injury Notes – n/a
Mike’s DK Core Four:
- RB Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame
- RB Desmond Reid, Pittsburgh (assuming healthy)
- RB Devon Dampier, Utah
- RB King Miller, USC
Mike’s FD Core Four:
- RB Tre Wisner, Texas
- QB Ty Simpson, Alabama
- RB Desmond Reid, Pittsburgh (assuming healthy)
- WR Johntay Cook, Syracuse
