TCU vs. Kansas State
Point-Spread: K-State -6.5
O/U Total: 59.5
Implied Score: K-State 33 – TCU 26.5
Weather: 71 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
TCU:
Top Play(s) – QB Josh Hoover ($7,500) Availability is the best quality in football, and unfortunately for Chandler Morris, two straight years he’s been unable to remain healthy. Doesn’t look like he’ll be getting his job back either after Hoover threw for 439 yards and four touchdowns in the blowout win over BYU. The redshirt freshman quarterback has been described as a “slinger” by his coaches, and his arm strength is very noticeable when compared to Morris. Kansas State ranks 113th in yards allowed through the air but are only giving up 17.8 FPPG to quarterbacks.
Fade – WR Dylan Wright ($5,200) Nine different receivers caught a pass last week against BYU so we’re already not inclined to have much exposure to Horned Frogs pass-catchers. You might think the blowout was the reason why, but TCU has spread the ball around all season. Also notable when a QB change happens is who seemingly has the best connections with the new starter. Wright had just one catch on four targets. We’ll look elsewhere for Hoover pairings.
Bargain Bin – TE Jared Wiley ($4,200) Team leader in touchdowns (4), second in routes run, second in targets (31) and second in receptions (21). Kansas State hasn’t allowed a tight end to score more than seven fantasy points in a game this season, but there aren’t a lot of teams in the Big 12 that utilize the position in the passing game like TCU does.
Pivot Play – WR Savion Williams ($5,700) Is it coincidence that Savion Williams’ best performance of the season came with Hoover starting at quarterback? 6-77-1 on nine targets and now has found the end-zone in back-to-back games. Kansas State is allowing the 20th most fantasy points to wide receivers among teams playing in Week 8.
Best of the Rest – John Paul Richardson ($6,100) Connection was strong between JRP and Hoover against BYU, catching six passes on eight targets for 104 yards and a touchdown. The former Oklahoma State transfer now leads the team in targets (38), receptions (27) and yards (400) with a 71% catch rate. WR Jaylon Robinson ($4,500) is fourth in targets and third in routes run and had a season-high seven receptions last week. Everybody seemingly benefited from the QB change. RB Emani Bailey ($6,900) doesn’t have any challengers for carries in the TCU backfield which is a plus, but this isn’t the best matchup as Kansas State is 7th in rush D success rate.
Injury Notes – n/a
Kansas State:
Top Play(s) – TE Ben Sinnott ($5,300) The one known commodity on the Kansas State offense right now. Even with the run-heavy approach from the Wildcats last week, Sinnott still managed to convert on all six of his targets for 72 yards. Upgraded with Will Howard at QB.
Fade – WRs Not Named Phillip Brooks. This is especially true if we get a shocker and see Avery Johnson under center in pregame warmups with the first-team offense. 11 of the 18 targets last week went to either Brooks or Sinnott who now account for 49% of the team’s target share. Next closest receiver has less than half the targets Brooks does this season.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Not playing any Kansas State options below $5.0k.
Pivot Play – Kansas State Starting QB. Very curious to see what happens with the Kansas State QB job tonight and moving forward after the true freshman Avery Johnson ran for 88 yards and five touchdowns, leading the Wildcats to a win over Texas Tech. Interesting quote from Chris Klieman about QB Will Howard, stating that “He plays for Kansas State, not Will Howard University.” Am I taking that out of context or is that a shot at Howard? From reading up on the situation, it sounds as though Howard will get the nod again tonight, but on a short leash. Even if playing well, expect Johnson to get some running packages.
Best of the Rest – RBs. What a mess. After DJ Giddens seemingly took the starting job from Treshaun Ward against Oklahoma State, we’re back to the 50-50 split in the KSU backfield where the coaching staff will simply ride the hot hand. Ward gets the higher projection at a cheaper price this week, but is there some recency bias in the projection? TCU is an average B12 rush defense, ranked 51st in rush D success rate and allowing 17.2 FPPG to RB1s. Good number if we knew who the true RB1 actually was.
Injury Notes – n/a
Texas Tech vs. BYU
Point-Spread: TT -3.5
O/U Total: 50.5
Implied Score: TT 27 – BYU 23.5
Weather: 74 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
BYU:
Top Play(s) – RB LJ Martin ($5,700) BYU’s offensive line combination combined with Martin’s inexperience as a true freshman is resulting in major struggles running the football. The Cougars are 128th nationally in rush play success rate. Reading the BYU Mailbag, the team’s beat writer did say that they’re going to lean more into the running game on Saturday despite the struggles, because of how the passing game is unperforming. Can Martin run on Tech? I have my doubts as the Red Raiders have allowed just one RB to top 15 fantasy points against them all year.
Fade – TE Isaac Rex ($4,900) I don’t like the way Rex’s numbers are trending with just two targets in each of the last two games. What happened? BYU got healthy at receiver is what happened with Kody Epps and Keanu Hill back in the lineup. Too congested for a tight end at this pricing.
Bargain Bin – WR Kody Epps ($3,300) Way too cheap here for what is BYU’s most talented receiver. First game back since Week 3 for Epps and he already played the third most snaps of any BYU receiver against TCU, catching a pair of passes on four targets.
Pivot Play – WR Chase Roberts ($4,700) Partially due to health among the BYU receivers, but Roberts has been the Cougars best pass-catching option, leading the team in every major receiving category. Four WRs have scored at least 19 fantasy points against Tech this season, all of which have been boundary receivers like Roberts. Six different BYU receivers were targeted at least three times last week so it’s not imperative to have any in your lineups Saturday, but they’re all modestly priced.
Best of the Rest – QB Kedon Slovis ($7,100) Kilani Sitake is now the latest in a long line of coaches to figure out that Kedon Slovis ain’t it, man. Checked into the BYU chatter to see if there was any mention of Slovis possibly getting replaced at any point and doesn’t sound like any of the backups have made enough waves to possibly challenge for the QB1 job. So we’ll see Slovis on Saturday and likely get the same results we have the last 2-3 years now. Why we can’t outright fade Slovis? Texas Tech is allowing the eighth most fantasy points to QB1s amongst teams that are playing today. I can’t believe I’m talking myself into Slovis being a strong GPP play, but here we are…
Injury Notes – n/a
Texas Tech:
Top Play(s) – RB Tahj Brooks ($6,500) Run the dang ball, coach. This one is straight-forward. Quarterback situation is a mess health-wise, and Brooks has been the team’s best offensive player all season. 15+ carries is a lock, and I’d say Brooks should get closer to 25 touches if Behren Morton is unavailable. BYU has been strong defending the run this season, allowing just 12 FPPG to RB1s. But Tech has the advantage here in the trenches. Feed Brooks.
Fade – RB Cam’Ron Valdez ($4,000) This is no backfield split like we’ve seen in year’s past with Brooks and Sa’Rodorick Thompson. 84% of the rushing attempts by Texas Tech running backs have been by Brooks.
Bargain Bin – WR Coy Eakin ($4,000) Eakin played the most snaps of any Tech receiver in each of the last two games and hit double-digit fantasy points in both contests. Season-high 102 yards on seven targets last week against Kansas State. BYU allowed multiple TCU receivers to score over 20 fantasy points last week, something the Horned Frogs hadn’t done all season.
Pivot Play – WR Jerand Bradley ($5,400) Bradley became an afterthought with Behren Morton at QB but had a good connection with Jake Strong last week with five receptions and a touchdown on 10 targets. Bradley’s viability on Saturday might depend on who is under center.
Best of the Rest – WR Myles Price ($5,000) Price has been Tech’s most consistent receiver the last three weeks since Morton’s insertion as the starting quarterback. Nearly 60% of his season long targets have come in that 3-game span. If Morton plays, my interest in Price increases. Far more value on DK vs. FD as a high-volume slot receiver that catches most of his passes within the first down markers.
Injury Notes – QB Behren Morton ($6,300) We’re projecting Jake Strong to get the nod on Saturday for now, but there is no official word (as of this morning) who will start for the Red Raiders on Saturday. Shame that Morton is on the mend too, as this would be a strong matchup with a bad secondary that just allowed 400 passing yards to a QB making his first-career collegiate start.
Mississippi vs. Auburn
Point-Spread: Miss -6.5
O/U Total: 55.5
Implied Score: Miss 31 – Aub 24.5
Weather: 70 degrees / 0% rain / 8 mph winds
Mississippi:
Top Play(s) – RB Quinshon Judkins ($6,600) Quinshon coming off of a bye week of rest? Yes, please. This is a bottom-half SEC rush defense for Auburn, rankings 104th in rush D success rate and allowing 16 FPPG to RB1s. A running back has yet to score 20 fantasy points on the Tigers this season, but six have scored at least 14 fantasy points, including five from the SEC.
Fade – WR Zakhari Franklin ($5,900) Use Franklin as a cautionary tale of the transfer portal. Health has been a factor sure, but the UTSA transfer wouldn’t be among the top three options for Ole Miss with how Watkins, Dayton Wade and Tre Harris are performing. Did not play against Arkansas and is questionable for tonight.
Bargain Bin – TE Caden Prieskorn ($4,100) Don’t understand how this can happen, but Caden Prieskorn wasn’t targeted a single time against Arkansas in Week 6. That said, the former Memphis transfer did play all 72 offensive snaps. He’ll have a far bigger role over the middle of the field if Jordan Watkins does sit. Auburn has generally done well this season against tight ends but did allow over 30 fantasy points to Brock Bowers.
Pivot Play – WR Tre Harris ($7,500) Will likely see little ownership on Saturday with the “probable” tag on DK + the highest salary of any WR on the slate + a poor performance against Arkansas with one reception on five targets. Auburn is far better against the pass than the run, but when healthy this season, Harris has been the team’s most explosive playmaker. GPP option.
Best of the Rest – QB Jaxson Dart ($9,500) Auburn being projected to score three + touchdowns in this matchup is good for Dart in that the Rebels will be forced to keep putting points on the board. This feels like a Quinshon game, though, with injuries at WR and a strong secondary for the Tigers. Auburn is limiting opposing QB1s to just 15.5 FPPG this season. WR Dayton Wade ($6,200) has been rock solid for the Rebels in 2023, second on the team in targets, receptions, yards, and routes run. He’ll potentially kick inside if Watkins sits, which could lead to more target volume.
Injury Notes – WR Jordan Watkins ($6,500) Ole Miss beat writer said on Friday that he does not anticipate Watkins playing tonight, despite Lane Kiffin stating that he would. We’ll monitor pregame as this obviously affects our interest in the Ole Miss receiver room.
Auburn:
Top Play(s) – RB Jarquez Hunter ($5,400) Multiple beat writers who cover Auburn are projecting the Tigers to score 30+ points tonight. Can somebody tell me where all these points are coming from with this inept passing game, which is in turn, trickling down and forcing opposing defenses to stuff the box. And reading up on the game, the primary reason given as to why is that it’s a night game at Jordan-Hare Stadium. That’s it? SEC delusion at its finest. Hunter is the only trustworthy offensive option Auburn has, and even that’s a stretch, rushing for a touchdown in three of the last four games played. The Rebels are average across the board defending the run.
Fade – QB Payton Thorne ($6,200) For obvious reasons…Payton Thorne is the worst quarterback in the SEC. We’ll probably see some Robby Ashford in spurts too like we have all season. FWIW – Ole Miss has a terrible secondary, ranking 120th in pass D success rate and is allowing 24.2 FPPG to QB1s. That’s heavily swayed by the 47-point performance from Jayden Daniels, though.
Bargain Bin – TE Rivaldo Fairweather ($3,800) The athletic FIU transfer has not had the impact some thought he would this season under Hugh Freeze but is second on the team in both targets (22) and receptions (16). Ole Miss has been cooked by a few tight ends this season, namely Arkansas’ Ty Washington who caught seven passes and two scores against this Rebels defense.
Pivot Play – WR Jay Fair ($4,400) Fair has been Auburn’s best receiver by a longshot this season, leading the team with 21 receptions on 30 targets and a third of the team’s receiving touchdowns. Vegas somehow predicts Auburn to score three touchdowns tonight – Auburn fans expect more than that – so if anyone is going to contribute to that at the receiver position, it would be Fair.
Best of the Rest – QB Robby Ashford ($6,100) Feels like malpractice if this coaching staff continues to trot Payton Thorne out there each week expecting different results. We’ll have to monitor pregame warmups because we know Ashford’s legs can be a game-changer to any offense. Again, Auburn is somehow getting three touchdowns tonight if Vegas is correct. Best way to do that is get Ashford under center and run the football.
Injury Notes – n/a
Duke vs. Florida State
Point-Spread: FSU -14.5
O/U Total: 49.5
Implied Score: FSU 32 – Duke 17.5
Weather: 71 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Duke:
Top Play(s) – RB Jordan Waters ($6,400) By default since Waters has found the end-zone in literally every single game this season. Teams have been able to run on the Seminoles this season as FSU ranks 10th in the ACC in yards allowed on the ground, are 94th in EPA per rush play defensively, and giving up 17 FPPG to RB1s.
Fade – QB Henry Belin IV ($6,600) If you’re able to complete just 33% of your passes against NC State, I can’t imagine much more success will take place against an FSU defense that has been living in opposing backfields lately. The Seminoles are allowing just 16.6 FPPG to QB1s this season, limiting quarterbacks to eight fantasy points fewer than their seasonal average.
Bargain Bin – RB Jaquez Moore ($4,000) Waters is the definitely the preference of the two Duke running backs, but Moore should see 10+ touches on Saturday – assuming the game isn’t out of hand – and is averaging over five yards a carry in 2023. I thought Moore would be closer to $5k than his current salary.
Pivot Play – WRs. Jordan Moore and Jalon Calhoun are one of the better WR duos in the ACC, but you see the limitations with Henry Belin under center instead of Leonard. Just four completed passes last week, though one went to Calhoun for 65 yards and a score. Moore was targeted five times, converting just once. I can’t jump on board with the Duke passing game in this matchup. Florida State is allowing the 13th fewest fantasy points to wide receivers among teams playing in Week 8.
Best of the Rest – n/a. This is likely a full-team fade with little interest in the Blue Devils if Riley Leonard is not in the lineup.
Injury Notes – QB Riley Leonard ($8,300) Barring a surprise on Saturday, the expectation is that Leonard will sit for the second straight game, though does sound like he’s closer to a return. After watching FSU’s pass rush harass quarterbacks the last few weeks, I wouldn’t want to risk injury either if I’m Leonard.
Florida State:
Top Play(s) – QB Jordan Travis ($9,200) QB options are slim, and Travis probably has the highest floor of the options for the night slate. The trouble is that this isn’t a great matchup for him either, facing a Duke secondary that is playing at an elite level, ranking 15th in pass D success rate, 5th in EPA per pass play defensively and allowing just 11.2 FPPG to quarterbacks.
Fade – WR3. Whoever it is at this point. Destyn Hill was seen in a boot last week against Syracuse. Winston Wright is transferring out. And the top two WRs dominate the FSU target share at 44%. Would not risk against a top-tier secondary.
Bargain Bin – TE Jaheim Bell ($4,200) Bell looked explosive coming back from injury in Week 7, catching four passes on six targets for 87 yards. Overall numbers for Duke against tight ends this season are good, but the Blue Devils did allow 19 fantasy points to Mitchell Evans a few weeks ago. Bell is now the de facto WR3 for the Seminoles.
Pivot Play – RB Trey Benson ($7,000) Duke is an above average defensive unit when stopping the run but have had their struggles against the elite RBs faced this season, allowing 26 fantasy points to both Audric Estime and Will Shipley. They’ll rotate plenty unfortunately, with Lawrance Toafili consistently in the mix, but like the way Benson is trending lately after a brief lull in Week’s 3-4.
Best of the Rest – QB Jordan Travis ($9,200) QB options are slim, and Travis probably has the highest floor of the options for the night slate. The trouble is that this isn’t a great matchup for him either, facing a Duke secondary that is playing at an elite level, ranking 15th in pass D success rate, 5th in EPA per pass play defensively and allowing just 11.2 FPPG to quarterbacks. Would not stack WR Keon Coleman ($7,000) and WR Johnny Wilson ($5,800) together in a lineup against a Duke secondary allowing the eighth fewest fantasy points to WRs in the country, but both players are talented enough to produce against any defense.
Injury Notes – n/a
Michigan vs. Michigan State
Point-Spread: UM -24.5
O/U Total: 45.5
Implied Score: UM 35 – MSU 10.5
Weather: 46 degrees / 65% rain / 10 mph winds
Michigan:
Top Play(s) – RB Blake Corum ($8,100) Corum is always going to Michigan’s top play in these blowout scenarios with poor weather conditions. But I won’t feel the need to roster Corum on Saturday night for a few reasons. The Spartans don’t do much well, but the run defense has been stout in 2023, ranking 26th in rush D success rate and are allowing the second fewest fantasy points in the country to running backs. Secondly, Michigan is fully trying to avoid wear and tear on its star running back this season after what occurred late last year with the injury in Week 12. This game was chippy a year ago, and Michigan can’t afford to lose it’s best player for any stretch if they hope to win the natty. 15 carries and a couple of scores is the expectation, hopefully resulting in Corum sitting for the 4th quarter (says this Michigan fan).
Fade – RB Donovan Edwards ($4,900) A small corner was turned last week with Edwards finding the end-zone for the first time this season. Should be a confidence booster for the remainder of the season, but Edwards still managed only 2.2 yards per carry against an inferior opponent. For CFF’ers reading our DFS pieces, even freshman Benjamin Hall outperformed Edwards last week by a significant margin. Good for Hall, bad for the junior RB.
Bargain Bin – TE Colston Loveland ($4,100) The Spartans were awful at defending the tight end position throughout the entire Mel Tucker tenure, and those trends continue even under the interim staff. MSU is allowing the sixth most fantasy points in the country to tight ends. Loveland has found the end-zone in each of the last two games.
Pivot Play – RB JJ McCarthy ($7,900) 23 fantasy points or more for McCarthy in the last three games who seems to have shaken off some of the rust in September, now having completed over 70% of his passes in the last four games with zero turnovers. Considering the poor weather conditions expected, I don’t think there is a ton of upside to McCarthy on Saturday as Wolverines will just want to get out of a potential hostile environment healthy and move onto the next opponent.
Best of the Rest – Michigan Pass Catchers. The Wolverines completed passes to 11 different players last week against Indiana. Seven the week before that. And 11 the week before that. If interested in having McCarthy in your lineup, there is no need to stack him with anyone else.
Injury Notes – RB Kalel Mullings ($3,100) Jim Harbaugh stated that Mullings is expected back “soon” but no further updates outside of that. We’ll find out two hours before game time on the injury report.
Michigan State:
The Wolverines won’t need to steal signs to put a beatdown on their in-state rivals on Saturday evening in East Lansing. Lowest implied team total on the slate by a wide margin.
Clemson vs. Miami
Point-Spread: Clem -3
O/U Total: 48.5
Implied Score: Clem 26 – Mia 22.5
Weather: 78 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Clemson:
Top Play(s) – RB Will Shipley ($6,300) Volume, volume, volume play. This isn’t the best matchup for Shipley, facing a Miami defense that is 14th in rush D success rate and allowing just 14.6 FPPG to opposing RB1s. But look at the touch counts for Shipley since the FAU game in Week 3. 22, 20 and 20 in the last three games. Sure, we want plus matchups against poor defenses, but volume is king in fantasy football.
Fade – WR Adam Randall ($3,200) There is going to be a mutual breakup at the end of the season between Clemson and the former 5-star receiver after running just four routes total in each of the last two games. Randall has fallen out of favor and doesn’t sound like he wants to remain with the team either.
Bargain Bin – TE Jake Briningstool ($3,900) Briningstool is the bargain bin placeholder for Clemson the remainder of the year as the cheapest, realistic option for the Tigers each week. Three receptions in five of the last six games.
Pivot Play – WR Tyler Brown ($5,500) I am most curious to see how this dynamic shakes out with Antonio Williams returning to the lineup on Saturday and how that affects Brown and his production being that both are slot receivers. Does someone shift outside? Are Williams or Brown relegated to second-string? Receivers have fared well against the Canes this season, with the WR1 averaging over 22.7 FPPG. Bodes well for whomever gets the majority of the playing time in the slot, or perhaps WR Beaux Collins ($4,800) who leads the Tigers in routes run and targets.
Best of the Rest – QB Cade Klubnik ($7,800) Not an all-out fade, but just not a lot of interest here with Klubnik, with a 20.1-point projection facing a Miami defense that ranks in the top half of the ACC in pass defense. The Canes are allowing just 18.1 FPPG to QB1s and those quarterbacks are scoring around 5.3 fantasy points less than their seasonal average against Miami. Working in favor of Klubnik is he’ll have his full compliment of receiving options at his disposal.
Injury Notes – WR Antonio Williams ($5,000) Lot of question marks here that I’ll likely just avoid entirely. Williams has been full-go in practice all week. Does he start and where? Williams has typically lined up in the slot previously, but that spot has been held down in his absence by what appears to be a better player in Tyler Brown.
Miami:
Top Play(s) – WR Xavier Restrepo ($6,700) We shouldn’t be surprised that a Miami receiver has become an elite fantasy option this season under OC Shannon Dawson. Six 100-target seasons in the last nine years from the WR1 under Dawson, including five 1,000-yard seasons as well. Restrepo is well on his way to hitting both, especially after the last two weeks with a combined 229 receiving yards on 31 targets. I look at the 12-108-0 peformance that another slot receiver in LaJohntay Wester had against Clemson earlier in the season, and think that is replicable by Restrepo.
Fade – Henry Parrish ($5,500) You’ll take shots on players in questionable situations if the matchup is right. I wouldn’t say that is the case against the Tigers who are allowing just 14.3 FPPG to RB1s and 41st in rush D success rate. Parrish had a crucial fumble last week against UNC and you wonder if that might result in Don Chaney Jr. or Ajay Allen getting more run on Saturday. Double digit carries for Parrish in each of the last three games so at least he hasn’t completely fallen off the radar like he did in the second half of last season.
Bargain Bin – WR Jacolby George ($4,400) Mispricing by DK as George should not be $2.3k cheaper than Xavier Restrepo. And this allows for you to potentially stack the two together because of the price difference, so it works out in a sense. Second on the team in targets (40), receptions (29) and first in touchdowns (5), averaging nearly 16 yards per catch. A receiver that has caught at least five passes in all, but one game should not be this cheap.
Pivot Play – QB Tyler Van Dyke ($6,400) Too cheap to ignore here in this spot, but TVD has not played well the last few games, tossing five interceptions against Georgia Tech and UNC. Also sounds like Van Dyke has had a wrap on his leg in practice and may not be 100%. Jordan Travis and Riley Leonard are the only two quarterbacks to have topped 20 fantasy points this season against Clemson.
Best of the Rest – WR Colbie Young ($4,100) I don’t believe Young has been fully healthy the last couple weeks, and that has resulted in increased playing time for both WR Isaiah Horton ($3,600) and Brashard Smith ($4,000). A tweet from a writer covering the Canes indicates that the increased workload for both should continue behind the top three, with Horton surpassing Young in snaps played vs. North Carolina. I’d consider this more of a reason to fade Young than start Horton, but notable, nonetheless.
Injury Notes – RB Mark Fletcher ($5,000) Fletcher is expected to miss a few more weeks with a foot injury.
Utah vs. USC
Point-Spread: USC -7
O/U Total: 53.5
Implied Score: USC 30 – Utah 23
Weather: 74 degrees / 0% rain / 13 mph winds
Utah:
Top Play(s) – RB Ja’Quinden Jackson ($5,300) Jackson didn’t get the spotlight last week, but that was about as promising a performance as you could’ve asked for coming back from injury. 94 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries. Most importantly, Jackson came out of last week’s game fully healthy. Jackson has a favorable matchup with a USC defense that is allowing 19 FPPG to opposing RB1s and 91st in rush D success rate. ***Not sure if this gets corrected or not (probably not now that its Friday night), but shame on DraftKings for not including RB Sione Vaki in the player pool. Utah has a history of doing this, converting defensive players into productive running backs (Eric Weddle). Vaki played both sides of the ball against California, finishing with 158 yards on 15 carries and two scores in the win over California. Ja’Quinden Jackson is back in full force, but has Vaki surpassed Jaylon Glover on the depth chart?
Fade – QB Bryson Barnes ($7,600) I think last week’s performance from Barnes against California was his fantasy peak. And that’s not meant to disparage Barnes as it was a strong outing, completing 71% of his passes with over 170 total yards and a touchdown. But that’s about as much as this Utah staff will ask of with its backup quarterback.
Bargain Bin – TE Landen King ($3,100) The extreme of extreme longshots here but the Auburn transfer did play 42 snaps last week against California, though he wasn’t targeted a single time. Coaches have praised King’s athleticism but that hasn’t translated to the field with his production. King steps in for the injured Thomas Yassmin who is also out for the season.
Pivot Play – WR Mikey Matthews ($5,100) The true freshman now leads the team in targets (31) with at least six in each of the last three games. Probably too expensive still for a player on a team that will pass the football a maximum of 25 times on Saturday, but we need to fill space here.
Best of the Rest – WR Money Parks ($4,800) or WR Devaughn Vele ($4,900) Those that have been playing CFB DFS know what to expect here. Both Parks and Vele are on the field the majority of the game but hit or miss whether any production comes with it as both are averaging around two catches per game. Wide receiver groups are averaging a combined 42.6 FPPG against the Trojans this season.
Injury Notes – Cam Rising / Brant Kuithe Sounds like we should stop asking questions about their potential return to the field. Legitimate discussions are being had about Cam Rising redshirting this season. Kuithe has an NFL future and really should be prepping for that at this point.
USC:
Top Play(s) – QB Caleb Williams ($10,500) We’ve said this before several times over with players on other slates, but it doesn’t make sense fiscally to spend this much salary capital to roster Williams in this matchup. Williams still gets the nod as USC’s best play because we sure as hell aren’t rostering any RBs against the Utes front seven, and the Trojans spread the ball around too much to focus on one WR. For as good as the run defense is for Utah, the secondary has been even better. 3rd in pass D success rate, allowing only 13.7 FPPG to QB1s.
Fade – RB Marshawn Lloyd ($7,300) Figured we’d give Dorian Singer a break as he’s been a punching bag for the DFS fade section in 2023. A plethora of RB options again on the night slate that there is simply no reason to force spending up for Lloyd in a bad matchup. While not as dominant as year’s past, the Utah defense still ranks 34th in rush D success rate, 23rd in EPA per rush play and allowing only 10.4 FPPG to RB1s.
Bargain Bin – WR Michael Jackson III ($3,400) Makes no sense in analyzing snap counts or routes run for the USC receivers – there are seven of them and they’ll rotate evenly throughout the game each week. Jackson is the cheapest of the bunch, coming off a season-high six receptions on six targets.
Pivot Play – WR Zachariah Branch ($4,800) We all saw that punt return against Notre Dame, right? Played just 36% of the offensive snaps against the Irish with just two targets in the passing game, but that explosiveness and game-changing ability was on full display, even if for a short while. Sounds like the coaching staff will ramp up his playing time again this week to give the offense a jumpstart after last week’s poor performance.
Best of the Rest – WR Brenden Rice ($5,300) or WR Tahj Washington ($5,800) Target counts are evenly distributed amongst the USC receivers, touchdown equity is not. 13 of the 24 touchdowns this season by Trojan wideouts belong to either Rice or Washington who are both averaging over 19 yards per reception. If there has been one area of concern for the Utes defense, opposing receivers have found some level of success. Oregon State’s Silas Bolden scored 33 fantasy points against the Utes. Would not stack USC receivers together, but will mix in both Rice and Washington separately in GPP lineups (without Williams).
Injury Notes – n/a
