Kansas vs. Baylor
Point-Spread: Baylor -9.5
O/U Total: 58.5
Implied Score: Baylor 34 – KU 24.5
Weather: 76 degrees / 0% rain / 23 mph winds
Kansas:
Top Play(s) – QB Jason Bean ($7,300) This game total has dropped about four points already throughout the week, with Baylor now a 9.5-point favorite (was 8.5 on Monday). That makes me wary in rostering any KU players this week. Baylor’s D is weakest in the secondary where almost every team they’ve faced this season has been able to throw on them. 86th in pass play success rate and 23.5 FPPG allowed to opposing QB1s.
Fade – WR Luke Grimm ($6,500) Another player like Steven Anderson (Tulsa) that I simply don’t understand why their salary is always this high? Solid player, leads the team in targets (38) and receptions (26) but has not scored more than 20 fantasy points all year long. Just 23% target share. Absolutely makes sense to bargain hunt if rostering a KU receiver.
Bargain Bin – TE Mason Fairchild ($3,700) Apparently Jason Bean likes throwing to tight ends more than Jalon Daniels did. Nine of Fairchild’s 13 receptions this season have come in the last two games with three touchdowns. Baylor has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends in the country, though the Big 12 isn’t exactly known for its superior tight end play.
Pivot Play – RB Devin Neal ($5,300) Baylor is third in the Big 12 in rush defense and 12th in rush play success rate but were absolutely gashed on the ground last week against West Virginia for over 200 yards and three scores. Opposing RB1s are averaging 18.7 FPPG against the Bears and Kansas has the offensive line that can hold up in the trenches with Baylor. I know Kansas loves their depth, but I wish we saw Neal get more than 10.8 attempts per game because he’s averaging close to seven yards a pop. If there weren’t a surplus of RB options on the slate, I’d like Neal a bit more this week.
Best of the Rest – WR Lawrence Arnold ($5,500) Arnold scored twice last weekend against Oklahoma and leads the team in routes run in 2022. 13 targets in the last two games. WR Quentin Skinner ($4,400) presents great height at 6-foot-5 and is a staff favorite. Followed up his two-touchdown performance against TCU with a dud against the Sooners. Averages just 3.2 targets per game.
Injury Notes – QB Jalon Daniels The Kansas QB1 is not practicing right now according to Lance Leipold, so we don’t expect to see him this week. Early November was the anticipated return date.
Baylor:
Top Play(s) – RB Richard Reese ($5,900) With the surplus of RBs on the slate, someone like Reese I think can go under the radar despite a terrific matchup. KU was gashed left and right last week by Oklahoma on the ground for nearly 300 yards and five touchdowns. The Jayhawks are 113th in rush play success rate defensively and allowing 18.9 FPPG to opposing RB1s, now facing one of the better O-lines in the conference. We saw Qualan Jones dip into the carry distribution a bit last week, but no reason to think Reese is not the RB1 right now.
Fade – QB Blake Shapen ($6,900) HC Dave Aranda said on his weekly radio show that Shapen is back at practice this week and has looked good since suffering the concussion against WVU. While a positive development for the Baylor offense, we don’t need to mess around a roster him at this price where guys like Jaxson Dart, Behren Morton and others are cheaper with higher projections.
Bargain Bin – RB Qualan Jones ($3,000) We can dismiss it, but Jones did get 10 carries last week for 41 yards and a touchdown. As a near double-digit favorite, with potentially a less-than-100 percent quarterback, Baylor may lean on the ground game Saturday. Jones is projected at over 10 fantasy points this week.
Pivot Play – WR Gavin Holmes ($4,900) Anyone that goes for 210 yards on seven receptions the prior week deserves consideration. And it’s not a total outlier in that Holmes has scored a TD in three of his last four games. The 210 yards is absolutely an outlier, and would not expect a repeat performance from a WR that averages 3.6 targets per game for the season.
Best of the Rest – WR Monaray Baldwin ($7,500) Baldwin is the cautionary tale that we could see playout with Holmes this week. The sophomore wideout followed up his 174-yard, two touchdown performance against Oklahoma State with 2-42-0 vs. West Virginia. Baylor does not have wide receiver with more than 13% target share on the year. Ben Sims ($4,600) is the team leader in that category (28) but he was usurped by Drake Dabney ($3,700) last week who posted five catches on seven targets. Probably best to just not invest in the Baylor passing game.
Injury Notes – RB Craig Williams Aranda said that Sqwirl is likely out again this week.
Syracuse vs. Clemson
Point-Spread: Clem -13.5
O/U Total: 49.5
Implied Score: Clem 31.5 – Syr 18
Weather: 67 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
Syracuse:
Top Play(s) – QB Garrett Shrader ($6,100) Let the overthinking commence! Bad matchup against a top-tier defense and a low implied team total. But we also have a very reasonable price and one of the best dual-threats in the country. Probably wouldn’t be in my cash game lineup, but for multi-entry GPP, I feel like we must consider Shrader in this spot simply because of cost. It’s not like the Clemson D has shut down opposing QBs. Hell, Jordan Travis scored 37 Fpts on em’ last week, and are allowing 26.2 FPPG on the year.
Fade – Anyone outside the Big 3. Against NC State, Shrader and Sean Tucker got every single carry in the running game. And hybrid receiver Orondre Gadsden had 141 of the team’s 210 receiving yards. No player outside of that trio is projected at more than seven fantasy points this week.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – RB Sean Tucker ($6,900) Strength of the Clemson defense is on the line, wreaking havoc in opposing backfields. The Tigers are 21st in rush play success rate, have allowed the third fewest fantasy points to opposing RB1s in the country and are fifth overall in yards allowed on the ground. Tucker gets it done in multiple ways – 24 receptions on 31 targets – but this is not the week we play him in DFS.
Best of the Rest – WR Orondre Gadsden ($6,300) Take out Sean Tucker’s 31 targets and Gadsden would account for over 30% of the team share among the remaining Syracuse pass-catchers. The sophomore hybrid has emerged as the team’s top playmaker, essentially playing the Keytaon Thompson role on Robert Anae’s offense as Gadsden runs 76.6% of his routes from the slot at 6-foot-5. Has five of the team’s 12 receiving touchdowns.
Injury Notes – n/a
Clemson:
Top Play(s) – RB Will Shipley ($6,800) Syracuse is No. 1 in the ACC in yards allowed per game and scoring, so the Clemson offense has its work cut out for them this week. Of the defensive components, Syracuse is probably more vulnerable against the run, ranking 35th in success rate. Still top-third range in the country and are giving up just 13.3 FPPG to opposing RBs. So Shipley is absolutely not a must-play this week, but game script works in his favor here and he’s seen his usage rates at a receiver increase in the last month.
Fade – WR Joe Ngata ($4,900) Still technically the starter, but now Adam Randall is full on his heels for the starting job having played 23 or more offensive snaps in each of the last two games. Meanwhile, Ngata’s snap counts and routes run each game are trending in the wrong direction the last three weeks.
Bargain Bin – TE Davis Allen ($3,700) 16 of Davis’ 22 targets and all three of his receiving touchdowns have come in the last four games. Syracuse did struggle to cover Purdue’s Payne Durham earlier in the year, allowing 29 fantasy points.
Pivot Play – WR Antonio Williams ($5,300) Sits third on the team in targets (28) but leads all WRs with an 85.7% conversion rate. The starting slot receiver logs over 40 offensive snaps per game, 93% of which come in the slot, and is second on the team in yards per route run (2.24). Much of his action is coming around the LOS with a 8.6 aDOT and only averages four targets a game, so not a priority play, but the freshman is looking like a future star.
Best of the Rest – QB D.J. Uiagalelei ($7,400) DJU has been excellent this season, but I’m not comfortable with him here in this spot. Syracuse is No. 1 in the ACC in pass defense, 4th in the country in pass play success rate and giving up just 16.6 FPPG to opposing QBs. WR Beaux Collins played 43 of 68 offensive snaps against Florida State but logged just one target and gave way to EJ Williams for a third of the game.
Injury Notes – n/a
Iowa vs. Ohio State
Point-Spread: OSU -29.5
O/U Total: 49.5
Implied Score: OSU 39.5 – Iowa 10
Weather: 65 degrees / 0% rain / 10 mph winds
Iowa:
DFS content creators might be the only people on Earth that enjoy seeing Iowa on the slate because we get some time back in our day not spent analyzing this lifeless offense.
Ohio State:
One of the rare instances in which a team is projected at just under 40 points and I don’t think we have to roster anyone for the Buckeyes. C.J. Stroud ($9,200) is very pricy, and a 39.5-point total is actually low for Ohio State. Iowa is second in the country in FPPG allowed to opposing quarterbacks and think they can do just enough defensively to where the $9.2k price tag for Stroud isn’t worth it. Miyan Williams ($7,200) throws a wrench into the backfield with TreVeyon Henderson ($8,000). Last time both were in the lineup at the same time, it was a 21-11 attempt advantage for Henderson with both topping 100 yards rushing against Wisconsin. That was before the Miyan Williams five-touchdown performance, so how does the staff want to distribute carries now? Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($7,000) being back would kick Julian Fleming ($5,200) to the curb one would think, but he’s also coming off a 4-81-1 performance against Michigan State so how does the staff juggle that? Marvin Harrison Jr. ($7,600) might be my personal favorite play of the bunch, given how the Hawkeyes lack of athleticism on the back end typically struggles against big physical receivers (Xavier Hutchinson, David Bell last year). With all this star-power returning, watch it be TE Cade Stover ($3,000) who winds up being the best bang for your buck play for the Buckeyes. Is averaging 3.8 targets per contest.
Cincinnati vs. SMU
Point-Spread: Cin -3.5
O/U Total: 58.5
Implied Score: Cin 31 – SMU 27.5
Weather: 75 degrees / 0% rain / 17 mph winds
Cincinnati:
Top Play(s) – RB Charles McClelland ($6,100) Essentially by default as he’s the only surefire starter we know that is playing on Saturday as Cincinnati is the walking wounded on offense. Monster performance in Week 6 against USF with 179 yards and two scores against USF. The Mustangs aren’t much of an improvement defensively, ranking 121st in rush play success rate and allowing 21.1 FPPG. Biggest concern here is Corey Kiner’s return to the lineup. Last time we saw both healthy, it was a 55-45 split in carries.
Fade – QB Ben Bryant ($7,500) Plenty of other QBs to choose from this week at a lower price. Bryant has failed to throw for more than 200 yards in each of the last two games, though he did get time to heal during the bye week after suffering a concussion against USF. HC Luke Fickell said he’s hopeful Bryant can play. QB Evan Prater ($6,500) becomes interesting in this matchup should Bryant sit.
Bargain Bin – TE Josh Whyle ($4,000) Would’ve debated Whyle more if he’d been in the $3k range considering he’s caught just 15 passes on just 3.8 targets per game. But SMU has struggled to defend the tight end position this season, allowing 10.8 FPPG which is tied for eighth-most on the country.
Pivot Play – WR Tre Tucker ($6,200) I would say this is dependent on Tyler Scott’s status, but Tucker has been averaging 6.8 targets per game even with the WR1 in the lineup. With Scott out against USF, Tucker became the primary target, catching seven passes for 64 yards on a team-high nine targets. Bryant starting at QB might actually be the bigger determining factor on whether to roster Tucker or not.
Best of the Rest – RB Corey Kiner ($5,400) Too pricy to consider at $5.4k as the RB2 to McCelland, particularly after his performance a week ago. The LSU transfer did play well in Week 5 vs. Tulsa with 106 yards and a touchdown on 12 attempts. WR Jadon Thompson ($4,900) saw his most extensive playing time of the season with Scott out of the lineup, logging 44 offensive snaps, finishing with 3-40-1 on three targets.
Injury Notes – WR Tyler Scott ($7,300) No definitive updates here unfortunately, but Luke Fickell stated that he is hopeful Scott can play Saturday after suffering a sprained ankle against USF. While we have confirmation both Ben Bryant and Corey Kiner are back at practice, we cannot say the same about Scott.
SMU:
Top Play(s) – WR Rashee Rice ($7,900) Tied for fourth in the country in targets (81) and has a whopping 34% of the team’s total target share for the season. It came out Wednesday that Rice was not at practice as he deals with a toe injury and is considered week-to-week. A big thank you to the SMU beat reporter that clarified by saying that’s been the case essentially most of the season and that there’s no way he’ll miss this Cincinnati matchup.
Fade – WR Moochie Dixon ($4,800) Whoever is the next highest priced WR for SMU, that’s the one you typically fade given Rice’s dominance. Dixon played all of five offensive snaps against Navy last week as it looks like the coaching staff is giving some opportunities to younger players to make an impact.
Bargain Bin – WR Dylan Goffney ($3,000) Sometimes it takes a while for younger players to grasp a coach’s offensive principles, but it is a wonder why Goffney and Roderick Daniels weren’t on the field earlier in the year. After seeing a season-high 64 snaps against UCF the week prior, Goffney hit the century mark in receiving yards vs. Navy on four targets. Not prioritizing SMU receivers outside of Rice, though. Of Mordecai’s 20 completions last week, nine different players caught passes.
Pivot Play – QB Tanner Mordecai ($7,600) Mordecai’s best performance of the year last week against Navy with over 400 yards of total offense and four touchdowns. The fantasy output hasn’t always been great, but Mordecai continues to rack up the yardage, now third in the country in pass yards per game, and is ninth in attempts per. This is far from the No-Fly Zone of last year that Mordecai will face, giving up over 24 FPPG to opposing QBs, but the Bearcats are allowing under 200 YPG through the air and 15th in pass play success rate.
Best of the Rest – n/a. Barring late news that changes a situation, nobody else on SMU is worthy of consideration besides the ones listed.
Injury Notes – RB Tre Siggers ($6,000) Will need to monitor pregame as Siggers was unavailable last week against Navy. As of Tuesday, it looks like Siggers still had not practiced with the team yet. Backup Velton Gardner ($4,800) didn’t play against Navy either, though he was at practice on Tuesday so appears he will at least be available.
UNLV vs. Notre Dame
Point-Spread: ND -26.5
O/U Total: 47.5
Implied Score: ND 37 – UNLV 10.5
Weather: 71 degrees / 0% rain / 17 mph winds
UNLV:
Props to UNLV for not being the lowest-implied total on the slate. That distinction belongs to, who else, Iowa.
Notre Dame:
Top Play(s) – TE Michael Mayer ($5,000) Wash, rinse, repeat. If you’re giving us Michael Mayer at $5k each week, we should just take it and move on to setting the rest of our lineup. Should be one of the higher ownerships of the slate if you want to fade for GPP purposes. UNLV has been outscored 82-14 in the last two games, so maybe Mayer’s usage goes down in the impending blowout.
Fade – ND Backfield. Three-way split between Audric Estime, Chris Tyree and Logan Diggs that is sure to continue as a four-touchdown favorite. All three could be productive, but nobody will see the workload to match value of their salary.
Bargain Bin – QB Drew Pyne ($5,000) I was going to bypass this Notre Dame writeup after Michael Mayer, but there is a decision to make here with Pyne sitting at $5k. UNLV’s defense shouldn’t provide much resistance. The Rebels are allowing just 24 FPPG to opposing QBs this season, but when you give up 21 fantasy points to Miles Kendrick, you’re susceptible to any quarterback. Does Tommy Rees and the offensive staff look to this matchup as a confidence booster and get Pyne throwing the football? Or will they take the conservative approach?
Pivot Play – WR Lorenzo Styles ($4,200) Production hasn’t been there in 2022, but its more a product of poor quarterback play rather than a reflection on Styles. Second on the team in targets (31) and receptions (21), and third in routes run. UNLV is only allowing 14.4 FPPG this season to opposing WR1s and are 69th in pass play success rate. The Rebels have been better defending the pass rather than the run this season.
Best of the Rest – WR Tobias Merriweather ($3,000) The 4-star freshman had just two targets on 10 offensive snaps but does that change moving forward after catching a 41-yard touchdown in his second game of the season. It’s not like ND is stocked with offensive playmakers.
Injury Notes – n/a
West Virginia vs. Texas Tech
Point-Spread: Tx Tech -6.5
O/U Total: 65.5
Implied Score: Tx Tech 36 – WVU 29.5
Weather: 82 degrees / 0% rain / 19 mph winds
West Virginia:
Top Play(s) – WR Kaden Prather ($5,800) The sophomore receiver was in my initial DFS builds this week as he’s assumed the WR1 role for the Mountaineers. Last four games, Prather has posted 28-269-3. Bryce Ford-Wheaton in that stretch? 20-214-0.
Fade – Anyone Beyond Top 3 WRs. This was the case for USC receivers under Graham Harrell and has translated over to West Virginia. Prather, BFW and Sam James have combined for 67% of the team’s total target share in 2022. Nobody else is involved in the West Virginia passing game.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – RB Tony Mathis Jr. ($5,700) We’ll touch on the primary RB injury below, but my assumption for Saturday is that Tony Mathis Jr. will start and get the majority of the snaps after his outstanding performance against Baylor. Tech ranks ninth of 10 teams in the Big 12 in rush defense, are giving up the eighth most FPPG to opposing RBs (22.6) in the country, and are 60th in rush play success rate.
Best of the Rest – QB JT Daniels ($7,100) Potential for this game to shootout so I would only play Daniels (a non-runner) in a game-stack situation. Tech is strong on the backend, ranked second in the Big 12 in YPG allowed through the air and 17th in pass play success rate. Daniels has surpassed 20 fantasy points just once this season.
Injury Notes – C.J. Donaldson ($5,100) As of now, I’m constructing lineups that Donaldson will not play, or will be in a very limited role on Saturday. HC Neal Brown said, as of Tuesday, that Donaldson had not practiced in pads this week since he hasn’t had any contact since the Texas game where he suffered the concussion. With how the running game looked last week, the Mountaineers don’t need to rush their star player back.
Texas Tech:
Top Play(s) – QB Behren Morton ($6,700) While I’m biased towards Morton, everything you read and listen to suggests it will be the redshirt freshman getting the nod on Saturday…and no I am not threatened by the possibility of Donovan Smith or Tyler Shough playing. Morton is getting the majority of the first team reps in practice and is said to be moving around the pocket better on the injured ankle. Could even get a discount here on ownership %’s if others are scared of the possibility of multiple QBs.
Fade – RB Tahj Brooks ($5,400) This still will always ride the hot hand in the backfield whether its Brooks or SaRodorick Thompson ($4,700). While the carry distribution has been mostly even all year, Thompson has outperformed Brooks in the last four games, averaging 5.5 YPC compared to just 2.5 YPC for Brooks. That came to a head against Oklahoma State where Thompson dominated the touches in the Tech backfield with 20 attempts for 87 yards and a score. Hot hand will always get the nod in the eyes of the staff, but for most of 2022, that’s been SaRodorick Thompson.
Bargain Bin – WR Xavier White ($4,400) This play is dependent on Myles Price’s availability Saturday as he deals with a sprained ankle. After what we saw in Week 6, probably not a situation where Price needs to rush back with White filling in admirably, converting his nine targets into 8-62-1. If Price is out, White is close to ‘lock’ territory.
Pivot Play – WR Jerand Bradley ($4,500) Two weeks later and still in shock that my Jerand Bradley under props went up in flames after one drive vs. Oklahoma State. Cavalcade of reasons why that occurred, with Morton getting the surprise start and providing a significant upgrade at the QB position, to starter J.J. Sparkman sitting out with a thumb injury. After playing just 13 snaps the week prior, Bradley 89 of 108 snaps against Oklahoma State, leading the team with 119 yards on nine targets. Assuming Sparkman is out again, Bradley is back in play for us.
Best of the Rest – WR Trey Cleveland ($5,000) Should not be the forgotten man in the WR room as he led the Red Raiders with 15 targets vs. Oklahoma State. The player that’s been trending upwards the most, aside from Morton, in the last two games with 198 combined receiving yards and 22 of his 32 targets coming in that stretch. Played 67% of the offensive snaps in Week 6, second among receivers behind only Bradley.
Injury Notes – Myles Price and J.J. Sparkman watch. Those two directly impact Xavier White and Jerand Bradley, respectively.
UCLA vs. Oregon
Point-Spread: Oreg -6.5
O/U Total: 71.5
Implied Score: Oreg 39 – UCLA 32.5
Weather: 51 degrees / 100% rain / 6 mph winds
UCLA:
Top Play(s) – RB Zach Charbonnet ($6,700) My assumption here is highest ownership of the slate given pricing and production. Our 20-point projection is lower that some other models I’ve seen around, likely given to Oregon being relatively strong in defending the run, ranking 27th in explosiveness and 28th in rush play success rate. Still, there’s no reason to expect Charbonnet won’t see his full workload against the Ducks and the price is very appetizing.
Fade – WR Kazmeir Allen ($5,400) UCLA employs two tight end sets often, so we typically only see two wide receivers on the field for the Bruins at one time. Allen did have a team-high six receptions on seven targets in the win over Utah two weeks ago but was on the field just half the time. Against the Utes, Allen’s aDOT was -1.9, bringing his seasonal average to just 0.7 yards. Everything is at or behind the line of scrimmage, so we need heavy targets for him to have a chance at matching value.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson ($7,900) Focus will be on Charbonnet for most DFS players, but DTR is squarely in play, and I’d suggest even rostering him with his star running back in GPPs. Oregon is allowing 28.1 FPPG to opposing QBs this season and are 102nd in pass play success rate. Why play DTR with Charbonnet potentially? The duo has had a hand in 77% of the team’s total offensive production.
Best of the Rest – WR Jake Bobo ($6,800) The Duke transfer has been very effective of late with four of his five touchdowns coming in the last two games. Isn’t seeing the target share that we thought prior to the year, averaging just 5.0 targets per, but Bobo’s been very effective running both outside in the slot, sharing the same route tree that Greg Dulcich ran a year ago. 80% conversion rate on his targets and just one drop in 2022. Beyond Bobo and Allen, no UCLA WR has more than 8% target share.
Injury Notes – n/a
Oregon:
Top Play(s) – QB Bo Nix ($9,300) The spend up for Nix worth it? 32 or more fantasy points in each of the last five games. Healthy 28.8-point projection this week. Nix is completing 70% of his throws and averaging a career-best 8.8 yards per attempt. On the ground, Nix is also setting a career-high with over eight yards a carry, and over 15 yards per carry in the month of October. Oregon’s quick RPO offense should also be able to neutralize UCLA’s strong pass rush. I won’t have a ton of exposure to Nix just because of pricing alone (and the rain contributing in that decision a bit), but there aren’t many other arguments not to play Nix this week.
Fade – WR Troy Franklin ($7,000) If we’re spending up for any Oregon player, it would be Nix. Much like the running back situation, the Ducks spread the ball around in the passing game where Franklin only accounts for 17% of the team’s total share and is second in routes run behind Chase Cota. Add in 100% chance rain, and I don’t see Franklin being able to reach/surpass value.
Bargain Bin – RB Jordan James ($3,000) We haven’t seen Oregon play a one-score game since late September, so it’s tough to get the full scope, but we have seen the 4-star FR on the field more with every passing week. James has now found the end-zone in each of the last three games, seeing a season-high 10 carries vs. Arizona. Not sure the Oregon staff places their trust in the FR in such a pivotal matchup.
Pivot Play – RB Bucky Irving ($5,500) It really is a shame that the Oregon staff is now spreading the football around to four different running backs. What would Irving’s numbers be like if he were seeing 20 carries a game? Maybe not as effective in that capacity, or maybe a 1,500-yard rusher. Who’s to say? But Irving has been excellent, averaging over five yards a carry in every game this season with the exception of the opener vs. Georgia. If the conditions are really sloppy on Saturday, maybe we see the Ducks lean on the run moreso than usual.
Best of the Rest – WR Kris Hutson ($3,500) Seemingly on the outs to start the year, Hutson appears back in good graces, with 13 of his 18 targets coming in the last three games. Very limited upside with RB Noah Whittington ($4,000) who will not win you a GPP, but is averaging 8.8 rushing attempts and 6.3 YPC this season. WR Chase Cota ($4,800) is first on the team in routes run and a close second in targets (28).
Injury Notes – RB Byron Cardwell ($4,700) Same story each week. Cardwell looks close to playing, and then does not see the field. At this point, we’re looking at a redshirt or transfer candidate and don’t expect to see him the remainder of the year if I were wagering.
Texas vs. Oklahoma State
Point-Spread: Tex -6.5
O/U Total: 61.5
Implied Score: Tex 34 – OK St 27.5
Weather: 86 degrees / 0% rain / 23 mph winds
Texas:
Top Play(s) – WR Xavier Worthy ($6,100) Target distribution really hasn’t changed much for Worthy whether Quinn Ewers was in the lineup or not. Production has, though, as five of the six touchdowns for Worthy this season have been thrown by Ewers. Arguably the best matchup of the season this week for Worthy facing the worst pass defense in the Big 12. The Cowboys have actually allowed the single most fantasy points per game (29.2) to opposing WR1s in the entire country.
Fade – RB Roschon Johnson ($5,400) This really is not a detriment to Roschon either, as he’s averaging over five yards a carry on the season, and six yards per attempt in each of the last two games. But with the roadblock of Bijan Robinson ahead of him on the depth chart, there’s simply no reason to roster him at $5,400. Texas’ offensive line is improving with every passing week, which does bode well for the running game as a whole moving forward.
Bargain Bin – TE Ja’Tavion Sanders ($3,700) Sanders is on the field damn near every offensive snap, is tied for second in both targets (36) and receptions (28) and third in routes run. Oklahoma State has allowed three tight ends this season to score nine or more fantasy points.
Pivot Play – RB Bijan Robinson ($9,400) We know 20 fantasy points is a lock for Bijan Robinson each week. We need 40 at this price. Roschon getting 10+ attempts as he has the last two games (in close matchups) might be the roadblock to keep that from happening. Oklahoma State has been just ‘ok’ defending the run in 2022, ranking 50th in rush play success rate, and are allowing 22.1 FPPG to opposing running backs.
Best of the Rest – QB Quinn Ewers ($6,400) Slow start for Ewers last week, but still managed to throw for three touchdowns with zero interceptions against the best defense in the Big 12. Oklahoma State is not that, but this is Ewers’ first collegiate start in a true road environment. Statistically the worst pass defense in the Big 12, allowing 33.4 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks.
Injury Notes – n/a
Oklahoma State:
Top Play(s) – QB Spencer Sanders ($7,800) We’re projecting Sanders as if he’s playing this week until we are told otherwise because “he’s a tough motherf**ker.” If Sanders doesn’t play, we can throw out every single Oklahoma State player as a potential option, but this is a huge Top 25 matchup at home for a senior QB. Don’t see a way in which he doesn’t suit up. One stat I found that I thought was notable because of his shoulder injury. Last two weeks, Sanders is completing 36.8% of his intermediate passes and 33.3% of his deep passes – both worst in the conference. That’s where his injury is impacting him and the offense most.
Fade – WR Braydon Johnson ($6,700) Based on the stat above, if Texas is smart, they will not play soft coverage and force Sanders to beat them over the top. That’s where Johnson impacts the game most with a 19.9 YPC average and aDOT of 18.7. While Johnson had eight targets vs. TCU, that resulted in just three receptions. Sanders not being effective throwing deep effects Johnson the most, and he’s simply to pricey anyways.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – WR Brennan Presley ($6,100) Short to intermediate routes make sense for a quarterback with a bum shoulder. That’s where Presley thrives, though is only averaging around five receptions per game with one touchdown. We need more volume for Presley to be worth the cost, particularly with an aDOT of just 6.9 on the season. Fellow slot receiver John Paul Richardson ($4,400) has seen his activity increase of late with 20 targets in the last three weeks. Again, short to intermediate routes.
Best of the Rest – RB Dominic Richardson ($6,500) Would make sense, right? Banged up Sanders means more carries for Richardson. And we’ve seen that the last three weeks with 19 or more attempts in all three games. But then Mike Gundy comes out and says we’re wanting to limit Richardson’s workload moving forward, so we’ll see more Jaden Nixon and freshman Ollie Gordon. I’d strong lean towards not playing Richardson this week against an improving Texas run defense that is now up to 7th in rush play success rate. Oklahoma State’s OL has not been very good, and Richardson is averaging under four yards per attempt.
Injury Notes – WR Jaden Bray ($4,700) Don’t ask me. We won’t have any idea on Bray’s status until at least Saturday morning.
Boston College vs. Wake Forest
Point-Spread: WF -20.5
O/U Total: 60.5
Implied Score: WF 40.5 – BC 20
Weather: 67 degrees / 0% rain / 4 mph winds
Boston College:
I suppose you could make a small argument for QB Phil Jurkovec ($5,600) at price. We’re getting around three touchdowns projected on Saturday for BC, and the Eagles sure as hell aren’t producing that via the ground where Boston College is dead last by a mile in the ACC in rushing. Wake Forest is allowing 30.5 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks on the season and a mediocre 63rd in pass play success rate in 2022. BC should find at least some success passing the ball on the Deacs. Best play each week is WR Zay Flowers ($5,900) who probably shouldn’t have been so loyal in the offseason and took that NIL money elsewhere. Averaging 10.3 targets per game in 2022 and we’ve now seen four different opposing WRs score 20 fantasy points or more this season against WF. Two of which came from Liberty and Army.
Wake Forest:
Top Play(s) – QB Sam Hartman ($8,900) Wake Forest’s newfound success of running the football has put a dent in Hartman’s fantasy stock, but I’m sensing a bounce back this week as BC’s best attribute on defense is stopping the run. BC is middle of the road across the board at defending the pass, ranking 36th in success rate, 99th in explosiveness allowed and giving up over 24 FPPG to opposing QBs. Implied team total for BC has me thinking they can keep up a bit on Saturday to where WF will need to throw.
Fade – WRs not named AT Perry ($7,400) That quote from the team’s WR coach a few weeks back still sticks out in my head, and it’s playing out as such this season too. Outside of Perry, four different WF wideouts have 20 or more targets in 2022, with Donavon Greene accounting for just 14% target share. Last year, that number was 23% for the WR2 for the Deacs. Ball is being spread around to where nobody is a viable option beyond Perry.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – RB Justice Ellison ($6,200) Overall numbers are still abysmal, but Wake Forest has run the ball with great success the last six quarters. Ellison has been at the forefront, averaging over seven yards an attempt the last two games, scoring a rushing TD in each. BC is not great in any area defensively, but are giving up just 13.3 FPPG to opposing RBs this season with only one back surpassing 20 fantasy points. As with every Dave Clawson offense, the RB1 does not see a heavy workload with Ellison averaging just 13.5 att/g.
Best of the Rest – n/a. Could get lucky with guessing/hitting on one of the other Wake Forest receivers beyond Perry. But the play here is either pairing Hartman/Perry together, or simply play Hartman naked. My general WF interest is strictly in the three players listed above.
Injury Notes – n/a
Purdue vs. Wisconsin
Point-Spread: Wisc -2.5
O/U Total: 51.5
Implied Score: Wisc 27 – Pur 24.5
Weather: 75 degrees / 0% rain / 18 mph winds
Purdue:
Top Play(s) – QB Aidan O’Connell ($6,100) Preface by saying I don’t view any Purdue player as a must in this slate. Wisconsin is only allowing 20.4 FPPG to opposing QBs this season, but that number jumps to 27.1 FPPG in Big Ten play. Badgers are also 77th in pass play success rate defensively so this is not the dominant group we’ve seen in the past. AOC is the surest thing we know can produce on the Purdue offense right now.
Fade – RB Devin Mockobee ($5,800) Big distinction here for me between DFS and CFF when deciding to play Mockobee. The walk-on sophomore has been a revelation for the Boilermakers, scoring double-digit fantasy points in every game played in 2022. The 30 rushing attempts last week, though, is a complete outlier and we will not see that again. Wisconsin’s defense is far from impenetrable, allowing 15.9 FPPG to opposing RB1s, but are 14th in rush play success rate. Still stout inside. Odds are that Mockobee gets double-figure fantasy points on Saturday, but not enough to make a dent in a GPP.
Bargain Bin – WR Andrew Sowinski ($3,000) Kudos to you if you predicted Andrew Sowinski having a bigger impact in a mid-October Purdue game than Tyrone Tracy. The walk-on receiver played 51 of 103 offensive snaps last Saturday and caught four passes on five targets in the win. I have no idea if this will continue, but his playing time has increased the last two games, with Jeff Brohm calling Sowinski a “dependable guy.”
Pivot Play – WR Charlie Jones ($7,800) Viewing Jones in the same light as Spencer Sanders. We’re considering him a go until he’s ruled out. HC Jeff Brohm stated Jones is banged up again this week and will limit his reps, but he will play on Saturday. Having a hard time fading Jones still considering he’s been less than 100% all year, yet still put up 12-132-2 on 15 targets last week vs. Nebraska.
Best of the Rest – WR T.J. Sheffield ($4,900) Take out the Indiana State game, and Sheffield is averaging 5.6 targets per game, finding the end-zone twice against Nebraska last Saturday. Third on the team in targets (34) and third in routes run behind just Jones and tight end Payne Durham.
Injury Notes – See above on Charlie Jones.
Wisconsin:
RB Braelon Allen ($7,400) or bust. Same mantra every week. Tough matchup for Allen against one of the best run defenses in the Big Ten in Purdue who allows just 12.5 FPPG to opposing RB1s and 9th in rush play success rate on the year. 23 and 29 carries for Allen in the two games since the Paul Chryst firing, and that should continue with backup Chez Mellusi already ruled out for Saturday. Wisconsin is also getting a boost with its starting right tackle returning to the lineup. Only thing I’ll say on the Badgers’ passing game. Purdue is coming off a game where they allowed 287 passing yards on just six completions. They’re vulnerable on the backend.
Memphis vs. Tulane
Point-Spread: Tul -7.5
O/U Total: 56.5
Implied Score: Tul 32 – Mem 24.5
Weather: 81 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Memphis:
Top Play(s) – QB Seth Henigan ($6,200) Henigan might actually have some time to stand in the pocket Saturday as Tulane has accumulated just eight sacks this season. Don’t necessarily love the matchup for Henigan against what is statistically the second-best pass defense in the AAC. Tulane has allowed four different quarterbacks this season to score 20 or more fantasy points against them and are 61st in pass play success rate. Henigan is running more this season, already with two more rushing attempts than he had in all of 2021, and has boosted his completion percentage to 65%. Game script should favor Henigan here as well, similarly to what we saw with Clayton Tune a few weeks back where Houston needed two touchdown drives in the fourth quarter to tie the game, resulting in some garbage time fantasy numbers.
Fade – RBs. All of them. It should be considered a crime what Ryan Silverfield has done to this once-dominant Memphis rushing attack. 92nd in line yards, 114th in stuff rate and 70th in rush play success rate. Tulane is 6th in the AAC in yards allowed per game on the ground but 14th in rush play success rate. They’ll have the decided advantage in the trenches.
Bargain Bin – WR Joe Scates ($3,000) The Iowa State transfer has seen his playing time steadily rise with each passing week and had his best game of the season with 5-112-1 on five targets against East Carolina. Considered the fastest of the Memphis receivers, 13 of Scates’ 19 targets have come in the last three games. I tend to have a rule about playing min-priced players after the first month of the season in that…I won’t play them. Scates won’t make my lineups, but there have been worse min-priced plays.
Pivot Play – TE Caden Prieskorn ($5,700) A tight end priced higher than Michael Mayer? That’s how good Prieskorn has been in 2022, ranking third on the team in targets (37), first in receptions and touchdowns, and first in total routes run.
Best of the Rest – Remaining WRs. Total guessing game here with no WR accounting for more than 17% target share, and they’re all in the $5k range where we don’t need to roster anyone. Six different receivers played over 26% of the offensive snaps last week against East Carolina, and only one scored double-digit fantasy points.
Injury Notes – RB Brandon Thomas ($5,200) Thomas sat out last week with an undisclosed injury and is considered a game-time decision.
Tulane:
Top Play(s) – QB Michael Pratt ($6,300) Will be another popular play on the slate as one of two optimal QBs at his pricing. Tough to argue against it with the way Pratt is playing the last two weeks, completing 72% of his passes, seven total touchdowns and topped 300 yards in consecutive games. Three of those seven scores have come on the ground. Granted, Pratt rushed for a net loss of one yard in those two performances. However, that came on 25 rushing attempts, which is a very positive sign for future fantasy value. Memphis is dead last in the AAC in yards allowed through the air.
Fade – WRs. In a weekday slate, maybe we’ll analyze the Tulane wide receivers. Not on a main. No receiver has more than 14% target share on the season. Take your pick between five different, yet relatively equal options.
Bargain Bin – TE Tyrick James ($4,200) Nice stretch of games here lately from James with four touchdowns in the last six weeks, and a season-high 5-79-0 on five targets against USF. Probably not spending $4.2k on a tight end, but Memphis has struggled to defend the position this season, allowing 10.9 FPPG which is the seventh worst mark in the country.
Pivot Play – RB Tyjae Spears ($5,700) Memphis is far better defending the run vs. the pass, ranking 49th in rush play success rate, but have allowed 17.1 FPPG to date against opposing RB1s. And haven’t exactly faced death row this season in terms of rush offense. The Tigers were gashed last week by Keaton Mitchell, and have allowed their last two opponents to average over four yards a carry. Pratt will be the popular Tulane play this week in GPPs/Cash, yet Spears is their best player on offense.
Best of the Rest – n/a
Injury Notes – n/a
Arizona State vs. Stanford
Point-Spread: Stan -2.5
O/U Total: 53.5
Implied Score: Stan 28 – Az St 25.5
Weather: 61 degrees / 5% rain / 7 mph winds
Arizona State:
Top Play(s) – RB Xazavian Valladay ($6,600) Very straightforward play here. Attainable price. Valladay is getting 60% market share in the Sun Devils backfield. Stanford cannot defend the run, ranking 118th in overall rush defense and 116th in rush play success rate defensively. Kudos too for Valladay this season as the advanced metrics absolutely hate the Arizona State offensive line, ranked 119th in stuff rate and 104th in line yards. FWIW – Valladay did not practice on Wednesday, assumed to be a rest day, but something to monitor.
Fade – QB Emory Jones ($6,500) Was going to put Jones in another section of this writeup, but I sat back and thought to myself, am I going to confidently put him in any of my multi-entry GPP lineups? Jones hasn’t scored over 22 fantasy points in any game this season. In argument for Jones, the coaching staff has said there will be “no quick hook” as he returns from injury, so he’s expected to play the entirety of the game. Stanford also is allowing 30.5 FPPG to opposing QBs this season.
Bargain Bin – WR Giovanni Sanders ($3,100) The starting slot receiver has scored double-digit fantasy points just twice this season, but leads the team in routes run in 2022, playing over 60% of Arizona State’s offensive snaps. Season-high six targets against Washington in Week 6, and accounted for at least two receptions in each of the last five games.
Pivot Play – WR Elijah Badger ($7,200) Before seeing his salary, I thought Badger would be squarely in play for us as a mid-$5k receiver. Damn. Too expensive for my tastes here but should recognize how good the sophomore wideout has been, now seventh in the Pac-12 in receptions after his 7-53-2 performance against Washington two weeks ago. The Cardinal are allowing 23.2 FPPG to opposing WR1s on the season with multiple 30-point performances from fellow Pac-12 receivers.
Best of the Rest – WR Bryan Thompson ($4,200) The former Utah transfer has seen an uptick in playing time the last two weeks with 10 of his 13 targets coming in that span. Over 70 yards receiving in both games and an aDOT over 19 yards. Just need one big play to match value.
Injury Notes – Think he’s good to go, but just in case, do your double-checks on Saturday for Valladay as noted above.
Stanford:
Top Play(s) – RB Casey Filkins ($5,800) Anyone noticed a difference since Filkins took over the starting job for the injured E.J. Smith? Me neither. Double-digit fantasy points in all six games played and the same effectiveness as Smith in the receiving game as well. Don’t have the exact number but NOBODY is threatening Filkins for carries either right now. Has to be above 90% market share in the Stanford backfield since assuming a starting role. Filkins was in my personal optimal lineup, facing an Arizona State defense that is allowing the fifth most FPPG to opposing RB1s in the country.
Fade – QB Tanner McKee ($5,400) Same argument here really as it is with Emory Jones. This game actually might get into the high 20s or 30s for both teams, but do you realistically see McKee as one of your QB options? The junior quarterback hasn’t surpassed 20 fantasy points since the opener against Colgate. Projection of 20 fantasy points this week does put McKee in play at his price, but I’m not going there personally, especially down his No. 1 receiver.
Bargain Bin – TE Ben Yurosek ($3,000) Can’t say I’ve stayed completely up to date with all happenings Stanford this season, but what the hell has happened to the preseason Top 5 tight end? Targets are down, YPC and aDOT are down significantly from 2021. Hate to say it, but does the loss of Michael Wilson now open things up in the middle of the field more for Yurosek now? Helped last year when Wilson was limited to just four games due to injury.
Pivot Play – WR Elijah Higgins ($4,400) Everyone jumps a notch on the pecking order with the Wilson injury. Higgins is a close second on the team in targets (30) and receptions (24), while playing 76% of the team’s offensive snaps. Led the Cardinal with 88 yards receiving in the win over Notre Dame. No reason he should be priced lower than Brycen Tremayne ($4,900).
Best of the Rest – WR John Humphreys ($3,000) The 6-foot-5 junior stepped in last year when Michael Wilson was injured and was moderately successful with 21 receptions on 35 targets. Minimal impact this season, but he’s the likeliest candidate to step into the starting lineup.
Injury Notes – WR Michael Wilson ($6,200) No official timetable, but head coach David Shaw stated that Wilson is likely out for the season. We know for sure Wilson is out this week.
Mississippi vs. LSU
Point-Spread: LSU -2.5
O/U Total: 66.5
Implied Score: LSU 34.5 – Miss 32
Weather: 81 degrees / 0% rain / 11 mph winds
Ole Miss:
Top Play(s) – RBs Tough to go against the running game as the top play considering Ole Miss is fifth in the country in rush play percentage and third in yards per game on the ground. Simply does not matter if Quinshon Judkins is splitting time with Zach Evans, they’re both eating each and every week. LSU is only allowing only 13.8 FPPG to opposing RB1s on the year but are 91st in rush play success rate, so I’m not really threatened by the notion LSU can top Ole Miss on the ground. 69th overall in yards allowed per game on the ground and 104th with 11 runs given up of 20 yards or more on the year.
Fade – WRs beyond the Top 3. We have clear separation at the top of the WR depth chart for Ole Miss with Jonathan Mingo, Malik Heath and Jordan Watkins accounting for 56% of the team’s total target share. That number rises to 65% if discounting Michael Trigg’s targets who is now out for the season. No receiver beyond that trio played more than 36% of the offensive snaps against Auburn last weekend.
Bargain Bin – WR Jordan Watkins ($4,000) Watkins has solidified his spot as the top slot-man with 16 of his 25 targets coming in the last three games.
Pivot Play – QB Jaxson Dart ($6,700) Obviously easier said than done, but LSU has to sell out to stop the run against Ole Miss and force the inexperienced QB with an average set of WRs to beat them. Our 16-point projection suggests completely staying away from Dart this week but I’m intrigued. Four different quarterbacks have scored 28 fantasy points or more against the Tigers this season, all of which were dual-threats which Dart obviously is. Dart’s 9.2 yards per attempt average is third in the SEC and should attempt some deep shots against a secondary that is 121st in explosiveness allowed via the pass.
Best of the Rest – WR Jonathan Mingo ($6,600) Mingo was shut out against Auburn on four targets, but figure he’ll make more of an impact in a game where Ole Miss will likely need to throw it more than 19 times. Leads the Rebels in targets (28), routes run, yards per catch (23.0) and aDOT (17.2). Those types of downfield threat’s have given LSU problems this year as indicated above.
Injury Notes – n/a
LSU:
Top Play(s) – QB Jayden Daniels ($7,700) Ole Miss beat writers sure think Daniels is in for a big day, with multiple persons suggesting 250+ passing yards and 100 on the ground. Projections look like they agree here as we’ve seen some slippage in the last few weeks from the Rebels defense, particularly given up nearly five touchdowns to Auburn. Overall, Ole Miss is only allowing 16.8 FPPG to opposing QBs.
Fade – RB Josh Williams ($3,000) Surprised to see that Williams has not been boosted after rushing for 100 yards last week against Florida. I’m likely fading here, though, with Goodwin now back in the lineup. I’m not sure if just John Emery gets bumped down here or if Williams also takes a back seat to the more talented sophomore.
Bargain Bin – WR Brian Thomas Jr. ($3,800) Daniels and the LSU passing game pushed the ball further downfield against Florida last week, and the 6-foot-4 Thomas had one of his better games of the season with two crucial catches on three targets, including a touchdown. Not surprisingly, Daniels’ 10.9 yards per attempt (the highest average for him during SEC play), resulted in season-highs for a number of the LSU receivers. Thomas was still a distant fourth among LSU receiver in offensive snaps against Florida.
Pivot Play – WR Kayshon Boutte ($5,300) Speaking of season-highs, Boutte is rounding into form with back-to-back double-digit fantasy performances with six receptions on eight targets in each of the last two games. Fatherhood seems to be suiting him well.
Best of the Rest – WR Malik Nabers ($5,800) Nabers remains the team leader in targets (45) and routes run this season, playing the most offensive snaps of any LSU receiver. WR Jaray Jenkins ($4,800) probably doesn’t see near the targets he should (22) with an 81% conversion rate with four receiving touchdowns in 2022. I would max out at one LSU wide receiver to pair with Daniels this week if looking to stack, but would not go more than that. Also, stacking with Daniels is not necessary where Nabers accounts for just 19% target share.
Injury Notes – RB Armoni Goodwin ($4,600) Goodwin will play on Saturday, per Brian Kelly. Jack Bech participated some in practice this week but is dealing with a lingering back issue.
