LSU vs. Arkansas
Point-Spread: LSU -2.5
O/U Total: 56.5
Implied Score: LSU 29.5 – Ark 27
Weather: 69 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
LSU:
Top Play(s) – WR Aaron Anderson ($5,000) Anderson won’t break any DFS slates, but he’s the model of consistency when it comes to fantasy receivers. The former Alabama transfer has had at least 60 yards in every game in 2024. LSU spreads the ball around enough there you’re not going to get 20+ fantasy performances, but in PPR settings, Anderson is hitting double-digit fantasy points weekly.
Fade – RB Kaleb Jackson ($3,600) I don’t think there was any injury-related news last week with Jackson, so it was a healthy scratch against Ole Miss as the sophomore did not play a single snap. Hitting the portal in 3, 2, 1…
Bargain Bin – TE Mason Taylor ($4,000) Disappointed that Taylor did not hit the over on his prop line with all the injuries at receiver, but this is too low a salary for a tight end averaging over seven targets per game. Arkansas has struggled to defend the position, where tight ends are averaging around 30% more than their seasonal fantasy averages when facing the Razorbacks.
Pivot Play – RB Josh Williams ($4,000) over RB Caden Durham ($5,500) We know who the better player is, that is not in question, but who is the better value? Durham held a slight edge over Williams last week vs. Ole Miss, playing 51% of snaps with 13 rushing attempts and three receptions. Is that a $1,500 difference from nine attempts, 46% snaps played and three receptions for Williams? Arkansas’ strength on defense is limiting the run, ranked 18th in success rate and allowing 18 FPPG to opposing backfields, so it’s not necessary to have either player.
Best of the Rest – QB Garrett Nussmeier ($8,800) Safest QB on the slate, scoring 20 or more fantasy points in all but one game this season. WR Kyren Lacy ($7,500) has not been as consistent as Anderson but has the slate-breaking ability of the LSU receivers, now with 24 targets and over 200 receiving yards in the last two games. Notable that came without WR CJ Daniels ($4,500) in the lineup and he is expected to play Saturday. Daniels was leading all LSU receivers in routes run prior to the injury.
Injury Notes – WR Chris Hilton ($4,000) As has been the case all year, Hilton is questionable for Saturday.
Arkansas:
Top Play(s) – WR Andrew Armstrong ($6,800) This Hog has been a target Hog for Arkansas this season, hitting double-digit targets in all five games played with three 100-yard rushing performances. Three receivers have scored at least 19 fantasy points against LSU this season, two of which coming last week.
Fade – WR Tyrone Broden ($3,800) Somehow Broden is still getting over 80% of the team’s offensive snaps despite converting on just 29% of his targets. Let’s reiterate that. Broden has 31 targets this season. He’s caught nine passes.
Bargain Bin – WR Isaiah Sategna ($4,500) Much of the focus is on Armstrong and rightfully so, but Sategna seems to be coming on of late with a breakout performance forthcoming. 70+ receiving yards in three of the last five games, with a combined 14 targets in the last two weeks.
Pivot Play – RB Ja’Quinden Jackson ($6,800) The Utah transfer has accounted for one rushing touchdown in all six games and has seen increased usage in the passing game with six of his 11 targets coming in the last two games. With Rodney Hill declared out, the only depth behind Jackson this week is a true freshman. Three running backs have scored 18 or more fantasy points against LSU this season.
Best of the Rest – QB Taylen Green ($7,200) Won’t rule out Taylen Green this week with a 21.6-point projection at $7.2k, but he’s been questionable this week with a bone bruise on his leg. That’s notable given the lack of rushing production the last two weeks with a combined 1 yard on 22 attempts. And Green isn’t all that attractive of a fantasy prospect if he can’t run.
Injury Notes – n/a
Georgia vs. Texas
Point-Spread: Tex -5
O/U Total: 57
Implied Score: Tex 31 – UGA 26
Weather: 82 degrees / 2% rain / 6 mph winds
Georgia:
Top Play(s) – RB Trevor Etienne ($5,600) Etienne’s prop line started out this week in the 70s and has dropped about 8 yards since open, signaling the confidence in Georgia’s ability to run the ball on Texas tonight. That said, Etienne’s involvement in the passing game is really boosting his projection this week with 12 receptions on 12 targets in the last two games combined. Impressive stuff.
Fade – QB Carson Beck ($7,800) Beck actually has a similar projection to Quinn Ewers this week at $900 cheaper. Still think it doesn’t make sense going against a secondary that is No. 1 nationally in success rate, allowing just 5.8 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. Not just good numbers, those are dominant.
Bargain Bin – TE Lawson Luckie ($3,800) Just as we all predicted in the offseason. Bring back Oscar Delp, bring in Ben Yurosek via the transfer portal and its Lawson Luckie that is TE1. Three touchdowns in the last five games for Luckie.
Pivot Play – Multiple UGA receivers. The thought behind multiple UGA receivers in a lineup is that this game rivals the Alabama matchup from earlier in the year where Georgia is in a trailing position and needing to throw as a 5-point underdog. The viability to that this year is Georgia finally not rotating much at receiver with Dom Lovett, Arian Smith and Dillon Bell separating from the pack. OR, you could go zero Georgia receivers in a lineup too because Texas is giving up just 18 fantasy points per game combined to opposing wideouts. Lot of directions to go.
Best of the Rest – n/a. Etienne and / or one of the receivers is the best strategy for incorporating Georgia players in your DFS lineups.
Injury Notes – n/a
Texas:
Top Play(s) – RB Tre Wisner ($5,000) We weren’t exactly sure how the Red River Rivalry game would play out for the Texas backfield, though had an inkling that the tide was shifting in favor of Wisner. Touches were about equal between Wisner and RB Jaydon Blue ($6,000) but the production was overwhelmingly in favor of the former, as Wisner rushed for 114 yards and a touchdown on 13 attempts. Wisner is garnering some Jonathon Brooks comparisons with his body type and running style.
Fade – RB Jaydon Blue ($6,000) To reiterate, nothing really changed much with Blue’s usage last Saturday, on the field about 42% of the time, but it just feels like the momentum has shifted this point to Wisner as the team’s top back. Against the two best rush defenses faced this season, Blue averaged less than 3.2 yards per carry.
Bargain Bin – TE Gunnar Helm ($3,500) Helm has arguably been Texas’ most trustworthy fantasy option among the team’s pass-catchers, with 21 receptions on 23 targets. What we like about Helm this week is his usage in the Longhorns’ two biggest wins this season over Michigan and Oklahoma where Helm combined for 12 receptions, 13 targets and over 90 yards receiving in both games.
Pivot Play – WRs. Steve Sarkisian has consistently had 1,000-yard receivers in his offenses dating back to his days at Alabama and USC. Not this year. Isaiah Bond leads the way with just 16% of the team’s target share as the Longhorns are spreading the ball around to their receivers, backs and tight ends. Good for a team offensively as a whole, but bad for fantasy purposes. Limit one Texas receiver in a lineup between Isaiah Bond, Matthew Golden or the two freshmen in Ryan Wingo and DeAndre Moore Jr.
Best of the Rest – QB Quinn Ewers ($8,700) A 21-point projection at this salary doesn’t make Ewers that appealing of an option this week honestly. Nothing special about the Georgia defense this year, ranking 51st in pass D success rate and allowing 18 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. But we feel its better to spend up $100 to grab Garrett Nussmeier instead with the higher projection and better matchup.
Injury Notes – n/a. Isaiah Bond is looking likely to play on Saturday.
UCF vs. Iowa State
Point-Spread: ISU -13.5
O/U Total: 50.5
Implied Score: ISU 32 – UCF 18.5
Weather: 71 degrees / 0% rain / 8 mph winds
UCF:
Top Play(s) – WR Kobe Hudson ($5,500) Please don’t feel the need to have any UCF players in your lineups this week. Hudson gets top billing because of his reasonable price tag, and potential connection with Brown at quarterback with a 7-114-1 on a season-high 13 targets last week.
Fade – WR2. Now we know why Gus Malzahn brought in three transfer receivers over the offseason – none of which have done much of anything to this point. Ja’Varrius Johnson and Trent Whittemore played over 68% of the snaps last week vs. Cincinnati and combined for a whopping 14 receiving yards on four targets. Brutal.
Bargain Bin – TE Randy Pittman ($3,000) You think a player is trending in the right direction and then serves up a goose egg platter the next week. Pittman is second on the team in targets and had three straight games of at least three receptions prior to the Cincinnati game where he was held out of the box score. Some Big 12 tight ends have found success against Iowa State this season with Michael Trigg (18 fpts) and Kole Taylor (11 fpts).
Pivot Play – QB Jacurri Brown ($8,000) The former Miami transfer was the better of the two QBs that played for UCF on Saturday, but this QB situation does not appear to be settled just yet after scoring 13 points in the loss to Cincinnati as the Knights are on a 3-game skid. Brown’s rushing ability is most intriguing, with 110 yards on 13 attempts. Iowa State is a bad matchup, allowing just 12.2 FPPG to opposing QBs.
Best of the Rest – RB RJ Harvey ($9,400) You’re seeing the impacts of what poor QB play can have on one of the best fantasy running backs in the country. Steady decline in production for Harvey the last few weeks, averaging just five yards a carry in the last three games and failing to hit the century mark in that span. Harvey isn’t a total fade because the Iowa State run defense is just average. 7th in the Big 12 in yards allowed per game on the ground and 88th in success rate.
Injury Notes – n/a
Iowa State:
Top Play(s) – WR Jayden Higgins ($6,200) or WR Jaylin Noel ($5,200) Prefer just one in a lineup, but possible to stack both Higgins and Noel together as they account for 60% of the target share and eight of the 10 receiving touchdowns. UCF allows close to 50 fantasy points per contest to opposing receivers.
Fade – RB Abu Sama ($3,500) Transfer waiting to happen at this point. Such high hopes for Sama in his sophomore season, but his playing time continues to drop, with a season-low two carries vs. West Virginia last week. If playing time is based on how you practice for Matt Campbell, I can’t imagine Sama is that motivated after being demoted.
Bargain Bin – RB Carson Hansen ($3,000) Swing and a miss by DraftKings having Hansen listed a min pricing after rushing for 90+ yards in each of the last two games. Hansen is close to a lock at this price and the potential game script as a two-touchdown favorite, but it should be noted this remains a committee with Jaylon Jackson, and minimal appearances now by Abu Sama. HC Matt Campbell indicated the player with the best week of practices will end up getting the most carries on Saturday. Don’t be shocked if it’s not Hansen.
Pivot Play – RB Jaylon Jackson ($3,600) Hansen is clearly the best value, but don’t discount Jackson who has double-digit carries in each of the last four games. Iowa State will ride the hot hand.
Best of the Rest – QB Rocco Becht ($6,300) Should be a good matchup for Becht this week, though not sure if UCF has the offense to keep up with Iowa State to force the QB1 to keep chucking. UCF is allowing just 20 FPPG to quarterbacks but rank 114th in pass D success rate and 96th in EPA per pass play.
Injury Notes – n/a
Kansas State vs. West Virginia
Point-Spread: KSU -2.5
O/U Total: 55.5
Implied Score: KSU 29 – WVU 26.5
Weather: 62 degrees / 0% rain / 1 mph winds
Kansas State:
Top Play(s) – RB DJ Giddens ($7,500) Wayyy too cheap for a player that has at least 80 rushing yards in all six games this season. West Virginia is 22nd in rush D success rate, but also giving up 28 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. Usage in the passing game is up for Giddens lately with 60 receiving yards in the last two games.
Fade – WRs Not Named Jayce Brown. Between Jadon Jackson, Keagan Johnson and Dante Cephas, the trio has combined to score double-digiti fantasy points once all season.
Bargain Bin – RB Dylan Edwards ($4,000) Of the three receivers we mentioned above, Edwards has better receiving numbers than two of them. You’re locked into about 10 touches per game from Edwards as a runner or receiver, and always a threat to score with his game-breaking speed. West Virginia allowed 60 receiving yards and two touchdowns to a similar player in Desmond Reid earlier in the year.
Pivot Play – QB Avery Johnson ($7,800) After the low point of the season against BYU, Johnson has looked better in recent weeks, completing 63% of his throws with a combined 60 fantasy points in wins over Oklahoma State and Colorado. What I never expected to see was -15 rushing yards from Johnson at any point in his college career like he had against the Buffs. West Virginia is 129th in EPA per pass play and 100th in pass D success rate, so Johnson should keep the momentum going throwing the ball.
Best of the Rest – WR Jayce Brown ($5,000) If pairing Johnson with a Kansas State pass-catcher, Brown is essentially the only option with 35% of the team’s receiving production for the year. Targets have gone up the last three games with 24 coming in the last three games with three touchdowns in that span. Here’s another nod in favor of inputting Brown in your lineups – West Virginia’s top nickel back, Aubrey Burks, is potentially out for this game. That would leave Brown matched up with a backup in the slot.
Injury Notes – n/a
West Virginia:
Top Play(s) – QB Garrett Greene ($7,200) The rushing volume / production is keeping Greene relevant this season as a fantasy quarterback, now with double digit rushing attempts in each of the last four games, while surpassing 80 rushing yards in each of the last three weeks. Greene will need to be good on the ground again to hit value because Kansas State isn’t allowing much through the air, with opposing QBs averaging just 16.3 FPPG against the Wildcats.
Fade – WR Preston Fox ($3,400) The injury suffered back in Week 3 seems to have kicked Fox out of the starting rotation because his playing time has diminished since. Once playing over 60% of the team’s snaps, that’s been reduced to just 20% over the last two weeks. That tends to happen when you have a 24% catch rate.
Bargain Bin – TE Kole Taylor ($3,100) Second on the team in receptions (18), third in targets (23), first in touchdowns (2) and first in routes run.
Pivot Play – RB Hudson Clement ($4,500) The one true slate-breaking receiver that West Virginia has on the roster, as evidenced by his 150-yard performance against Kansas three weeks ago. We rarely target West Virginia receivers in DFS, but this could be a week that makes sense. Among teams playing this week, Kansas State allows the 7th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. The other option would be WR Traylon Ray ($3,500) who is second on the team in targets and receptions.
Best of the Rest – RBs. Projections don’t really indicate we should focus our attention on the WVU backfield, not to mention the prop market has both CJ Donaldson and Jahiem White set under 51 rushing yards this week. Kansas State is 16th in EPA per rush play defensively and 17th in in success rate. Limiting opposing backfields to just 22.4 FPPG.
Injury Notes – n/a
Iowa vs. Michigan State
Point-Spread: Iowa -5.5
O/U Total: 39.5
Implied Score: Iowa 22.5 – MSU 17
Weather: 62 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Iowa:
Weekly question of if its worth it to spend up for RB Kaleb Johnson ($9,100)? The answer is typically yes, and no different this week as Iowa is a 5.5-point favorite. That said, the strength of the MSU defense is stopping the run, ranking 30th in rush D success rate and have allowed just two running backs all year to score more than 11 fantasy points in a game. That said, in losses this season, Michigan State is giving up 183 yards per game on the ground. TE Luke Lachey ($3,200) is the only other option on the Iowa side, facing a defense that has historically struggled to defend the tight end position. Three B1G tight ends have already scored 10 or more points this season vs. the Spartans.
Michigan State:
Top Play(s) – WR Montorie Foster Jr. ($3,800) The most trusted of the Michigan State receivers, leading the Spartans in targets (44), receptions (22) and routes run. We mentioned this point last week and it came to fruition with Washington’s WR Denzel Boston – receivers have found a good bit of success against this Hawkeye secondary. Five different wideouts have scored at least 20 fantasy points vs. Iowa this season.
Fade – RBs. We don’t play running backs facing Iowa this season, specifically those that are in a committee. The Hawkeyes are allowing a combined 14.4 FPPG to opposing backfields, with just one player scoring double-digit fantasy points all season. Nate Carter and Kay’Ron Lynch-Adams are splitting carries each week.
Bargain Bin – WR Nick Marsh ($3,700) Foster is the WR1, but the true freshman is the upside play among the MSU wideouts with a 36-point fantasy performance already on his resume back in Week 2 vs. Maryland. Big play waiting to happen at 20.0 yards per reception.
Pivot Play – TE Jack Velling ($3,100) Velling has not had the impact most were expecting in the preseason. While second on the team with 19 receptions on 30 targets, the 6-foot-5 tight end has yet to score a touchdown in 2024 after nabbing eight a year ago.
Best of the Rest – WR Jaron Glover ($3,900) There’s an argument to be made for Glover given that he’s the highest projected receiver with this highest salary on DK with a team-high 2 receiving touchdowns. That said, Glover played just 36% of snaps vs. Oregon last time out as MSU ran a lot of two-tight end sets. QB Aidan Chiles ($6,100) is not an option with a 14.6-point projection.
Injury Notes – n/a
Kentucky vs. Florida
Point-Spread: UK -1.5
O/U Total: 42.5
Implied Score: UK 22 – UF 20.5
Weather: 72 degrees / 19% rain / 11 mph winds
Kentucky:
Top Play(s) – WR Dane Key ($5,000) We’re so used to Kentucky spreading the ball around between three pass-catchers equally over the last few seasons. Not the case in 2024 where Key accounts for 39% of the target share and 45% of Kentucky’s total receiving yards. 20+ fantasy points in three straight weeks.
Fade – QB Brock Vandagriff ($5,100) Five straight weeks running now that Vandagriff has failed to score more than 15 fantasy points in a game. Florida’s strength on defense is defending the pass, ranked 37th in success rate and giving up just 17.8 FPPG to quarterbacks.
Bargain Bin – WR Barion Brown ($3,400) At this point, Barion Brown is going to end up being one of those players that is better at the NFL level than he is in college. The talent is there, but Brown went to the wrong school if looking for stats. The junior receiver is second in targets (26), receptions (20) and tied with Key with two touchdowns.
Pivot Play – RB Chip Trayanum ($4,800) The former Ohio State transfer was upgraded to probable this week and looks to make his season debut on Saturday. Trayanum was going to be the team’s RB1 if he was healthy back in August, so maybe he assumes his starting role immediately out of the gates? Seems unlikely given the way Demie Sumo has played this season, but you never know with some coaches.
Best of the Rest – RB Demie Sumo ($4,500) The likeliest scenario with the Kentucky running backs is that Sumo retains his RB1 job for another week, and the staff gives Trayanum a few sporadic touches to get his feet wet in his first game action of the season. This is a favorable matchup for the Kentucky running game as the Gators are 92nd in success rate and allowing around 30 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields.
Injury Notes – n/a
Florida:
Top Play(s) – WR Eugene Wilson ($5,500) First game back from injury and Wilson played 80% of the team’s snaps with a team-best eight targets. Slot receivers like Wilson have found the most success this season vs. Kentucky, with three of the four highest scoring wideouts to play the Wildcats all lining up inside. The fourth was Tre Harris.
Fade – RBs. Montrell Johnson avoided a season-ending injury last week vs. Tennessee but doesn’t sound like he’ll be available vs. Kentucky. As for next man up, 4-star RB Jadan Baugh ($3,200) should be given the first chance with his involvement the last few games, but we’ll see both Ja’Kobi Jackson and Treyaun Webb get carries as well. This is not the matchup for any Florida running back, facing a Kentucky defense that is 14th in rush D success rate.
Bargain Bin – WR Chimere Dike ($3,800) Wilson’s return to the lineup doesn’t really change the dynamic for Dike as he’s cemented at one outside spot, leading the Gators in routes run this season. Dike’s 79% catch rate is highest among Florida wideouts and still averaging over 18 yards per catch which is tough to do.
Pivot Play – WR Elijhah Badger ($4,500) At least four targets in all six games played this season for Badger who is first in receptions (19), touchdowns (2) and yards per catch (19.8).
Best of the Rest – QB DJ Lagway ($5,000) The secondary is the weaker of the two defensive components for the Wildcats, ranked 66th in success rate and 51st in EPA per pass play. That said, this is the freshman’s first SEC start against a team that is allowing just 11 FPPG to quarterbacks. I’ll pass.
Injury Notes – Montrell Johnson hasn’t officially been ruled out, but closer to doubtful than questionable.
SMU vs. Stanford
Point-Spread: SMU -16.5
O/U Total: 53.5
Implied Score: SMU 35 – Stan 18.5
Weather: 80 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
SMU:
Top Play(s) – QB Kevin Jennings ($6,700) Normally, this would be Brashard Smith but there are plenty of good RB options on the slate. Jennings seems to be settling into his role as QB1 after compiling nearly 400 yards of total offense in the win over Louisville, showing off his dynamic ability on the ground with 113 yards rushing. 21 or more fantasy points scoring in four of the last five games. Stanford is allowing 29 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks.
Fade – RB LJ Johnson ($4,000) It was the first game back from injury for Johnson and he did still find the end-zone vs. Louisville in Week 6 but did so on just 13 offensive snaps. RB Roderick Daniels ($3,300) doubled Johnson’s playing time and seems to have assumed the RB2 role ahead of Johnson.
Bargain Bin – Daniels is the best bargain option for the Mustangs, finding the end-zone in each of the last two games with a WR designation on DraftKings which makes him more appealing as a running back. If choosing another option, it would obviously be TE RJ Maryland ($3,800) coming off one of his better performances with 6-83-0 on seven targets against Louisville. Stanford is allowing 12.6 FPPG to opposing tight ends.
Pivot Play – WRs. Recency bias leans towards WR Key’Shawn Smith ($3,600) who had 53 yards and a touchdown vs. Louisville, running the most snaps of any SMU receiver. WR Jordan Hudson ($4,700) has three receiving touchdowns in the last five games.
Best of the Rest – RB Brashard Smith ($7,600) Smith is still a good option this week with SMU being double-digit favorites, but the Stanford run defense is solid, ranking 56th in success rate and 5th in the ACC in yards allowed on the ground.
Injury Notes – n/a
Stanford:
Top Play(s) – WR Elic Ayomanor ($5,000) By default here with the offense in flux at multiple positions. Team leader in targets (55), receptions (27), yards (333) and touchdowns (3) with at least three receptions in every contest. Though, reading some of the material from diehard Stanford fans (yes, there are some), it sounds like Ayomanor’s mind may be elsewhere with the season trending downwards.
Fade – QBs. Ashton Daniels is the likely starter and should have double-digit rushing attempts if he plays the entirety of the contest, which is appealing for a QB at this salary. But Justin Lamson continues to get snaps as we saw last week, and 4-star freshman Elijah Brown is getting closer and closer to full health. When that happens (maybe now?), Brown will likely get a start before season’s end.
Bargain Bin – RB Chris Davis Jr. ($3,100) Davis held a 10-3 rushing attempt advantage over the RB2 against Notre Dame last week with Micah Ford out of the lineup. The freshman has been impressive in limited duty, averaging nearly seven yards per carry on 36 attempts. SMU is stout against the run, but if we get word (somehow) that Ford is out, Davis should be the team’s top ball-carrier again outside of the QB.
Pivot Play – TE Sam Roush ($3,200) I thought Roush would find the box score more this season as the team’s top tight end, and he’s also playing over 90% of the team’s offensive snaps for the season. But the production hasn’t come with that, averaging just 2.7 targets per game with one touchdown. That said, SMU has struggled to defend tight ends, allowing four players to score at least seven fantasy points this season.
Best of the Rest – WR Ismael Cisse ($4,000) or WR Emmett Mosley ($4,300) The hope is that Stanford can find a quarterback at some point, because the WR corps is as dynamic as it gets in the ACC with Ayomanor, Cisse and the true freshman Mosley, all of whom played over 70% of the snaps vs. Notre Dame. All three are options but are risks because of the ineptitude of the QB position right now.
Injury Notes – RB Micah Ford ($3,800) Good luck finding any sort of Stanford news these days. Ford was ruled out vs. Notre Dame, and since the ACC doesn’t have standardized injury reports, nor does Stanford have any football coverage, we likely won’t know of Ford’s status for Saturday night.
