Rice vs. Tulsa
Point-Spread: Tulsa -3.5
O/U Total: 56.5
Implied Score: Tulsa 30 – Rice 26.5
Weather: 72 degrees / 0% rain / 8 mph winds
Rice:
Top Play(s) – WR Luke McCaffrey ($6,900) Receivers are rarely a lock on a slate because of the surplus of options, particularly for Thursday’s two-gamer, but McCaffrey has the GPP winning upside you need. The unfortunate part is the boom/bust potential we’ve seen out of the Rice WR1 with three performances of 29 fantasy points or more. On the flipside, three performances of three receptions or less. Not surprisingly, McCaffrey leads the Owls with 26% target share, six of the team’s 16 receiving touchdowns and has been on the field for 86% of the offensive plays Rice has run this season.
Fade – WR Braelen Walker ($5,700) From a price per offensive snap viewpoint, Walker’s salary makes sense as the sophomore receiver has run the second most routes on the team behind McCaffrey. From a production standpoint, I don’t understand why Walker’s priced so highly as the fifth option in the Rice passing game, with an aDOT of just 6.9 yards. He needs volume if running all routes within 7 yards of the line of scrimmage, yet averages just 3.2 targets per.
Bargain Bin – TE Boden Groen ($3,800) Uptick in playing time and targets the last three games for Groen. Tulsa is allowing just 5.2 FPPG to tight ends this season but allowed a combined 18 fantasy points to Temple TE’s in Week – the only team the Golden Hurricane have faced this season that really utilize the position in the passing game.
Pivot Play – RB Dean Conners ($4,800) Rice can’t run the football worth a damn, simple as that. 113th in rush success rate and 100th in EPA per rush play. Conners isn’t your conventional running back, now third on the team with 24 receptions on 29 targets – 19 of which have come in the last three games. More value on DK than FD with the full-point PPR scoring setting.
Best of the Rest – QB JT Daniels ($7,400) Every season over the last four years, Rice has increased the volume at which they throw the football. Mostly because of how inept the Owls have been at running the football. But Rice has once again increased that frequency, now ranking fifth in the country, throwing the football 64.2% of the time. Daniels is a negative running the football but should find success against a Tulsa secondary that is 123rd in pass D success rate. WR Rawson MacNeill ($4,600) is yet another in a growing line of tall, white receivers that are thriving with the Owls (see Brad Rozner in 2022). 27 of his 30 targets have come in the last three games. Tulsa is allowing the third most fantasy points in the country to opposing WR groups.
Injury Notes – n/a
Tulsa:
Top Play(s) – RB Anthony Watkins ($6,200) Been a bit of a revolving door at times in the Tulsa backfield this season, but Watkins has been the most consistent with double digit carries in each of the last five games. Not always effective, averaging 3.9 YPC, but volume is key in CFB DFS. Shared carries in Week 6 with Tahj Gary, who coincidentally is out for Thursday, meaning 15+ carries is likely a lock here for Watkins. Not the best matchup against a Rice defense that has allowed one running back to top 12 fantasy points against them this season (Jonathon Brooks).
Fade – QBs. Admittedly don’t have a great read here. Both Cardell Williams and Braylon Braxton played against FAU after Williams tossed a pair of interceptions. Both are healthy entering Thursday according to HC Kevin Wilson. The possible split has me leaning towards avoiding the headache of a possible two-QB rotation.
Bargain Bin – WR Kamdyn Benjamin ($3,400) Pretty cheap at $3.4k for being Tulsa’s second leading target-getter with 40 or more receiving yards in each of the last four games. Season-high in routes run against FAU in Week 6 with Marquis Shoulders out of the lineup.
Pivot Play – WR Malachai Jones ($4,300) Jones was only targeted one time on 27 offensive snaps in Week 6 against FAU, but this is a player just coming back from injury after missing four games and was widely considered to be Tulsa’s WR1 entering 2023. Wonder if a week off has Jones at full strength and should see an increase in usage with Marquis Shoulders out of the lineup. Was fourth on the team last season with 37 receptions on 63 targets.
Best of the Rest – WR Devan Williams ($5,500) Team leader in targets (30) and receptions (19). Rice has been averaged defending the pass this season, but are allowing 22.1 FPPG to opposing WR1s, namely a 42-point performance to South Florida’s Naiem Simmons. RB Braylin Presley ($4,100) Another player this season that we expected more from as a P5 Oklahoma State transfer and former 4-star recruit. More of a gadget player than full-time WR or RB, Presley was targeted a season-high seven times against FAU despite playing just 27% of the team’s offensive snaps. Probably not a risk worth taking but could play a bigger role in the lineup with Shoulders out.
Injury Notes – RB Tahj Gary ($4,500) The former Virginia Tech transfer suffered a knee injury last week and is expected to be sidelined for an extended period according to The Tulsa World. In that same game preview, it was mentioned that WR Marquis Shoulders ($6,500) suffered a foot injury the kept him out last week and for the indefinite future. That also sounds long-term.
James Madison vs. Marshall
Point-Spread: JMU -3.5
O/U Total: 51.5
Implied Score: JMU 27.5 – Mar 24
Weather: 63 degrees / 37% rain / 11 mph winds
James Madison:
Top Play(s) – QB Jordan McCloud ($7,700) Top QB option on the slate. If it hasn’t been already, I’m ready to declare it – James Madison HC Curt Cignetti is a quarterback whisperer. If you turn Jordan McCloud and Todd Centeio into near elite CFF QB options, you’re a whisperer. 30+ fantasy points in each of the last three games. As for the matchup with Marshall, I’m conflicted. The Herd allow 22.9 FPPG to quarterbacks but are 2nd in pass D success rate. Still believe McCloud is the best option of the four, but far from a lock.
Fade – RB Latrele Palmer ($3,800) A former 800-yard rusher back in 2021 with JMU, Palmer has been relegated to RB3 for the Dukes and didn’t play a single snap last week against Marshall for whatever reason (No injury tag).
Bargain Bin – WR Elijah Sarratt ($3,400) and/or Reggie Brown ($3,700) DK mispriced the James Madison receivers, simple as that. Stack the two together or separate them in individual lineups, both are potential options. There is no Kris Thornton this year for the Dukes, but Surratt is starting to assert himself as the team’s top target with three touchdowns in the last four games. Best performance of the season against Georgia Southern with 5-10-5-1 on eight targets. Brown was very good as the WR2 last season next to Thornton, and has been solid again, leading the team with 37 targets and three touchdowns. The drops have been infuriating with a team-high five.
Pivot Play – RB Kaelon Black ($5,000) I’d probably limit my JMU exposure to just three in a lineup with the implied team total at just 27.5 and such a tight spread. From just a rushing perspective, Black probably isn’t worth $5, but his usage in the passing game is intriguing, now with three or more receptions in four of six games played this season. Marshall is allowing 20.5 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season and are 90th in rush play success rate. If you’re looking for an even longshot GPP pivot, backup RB Ty’Son Lawton ($4,700) averages just 8.1 carries per game yet has a 10-7 advantage over Black in red-zone carries.
Best of the Rest – WR Pheonix Sproles ($3,200) Dirt cheap for a player that is second on the team in routes run and averages nearly five targets a game. Clear separation between the top three receivers on JMU and the backups as they don’t rotate much. TE Zach Horton ($3,000) is tied for second on the team with two receiving touchdowns, leads all JMU players in routes run and 66% of his receptions have come in the last two games.
Injury Notes – n/a
Marshall:
Top Play(s) – RB Rasheen Ali ($6,700) The determining factor of the entire slate is Ali’s potential value against the top ranked James Madison run defense with ranks No. 1 in the country in success rate. One area Ali could exploit if not on the ground is as a receiving threat where he does average four targets per game with 70 yards receiving combined in the last two weeks. Fellow Sun Belter La’Damian Webb had seven receptions in his matchup with JMU coming out of the backfield. Virginia’s Kobe Pace had a 75-yard receiving touchdown.
Fade – WR Talik Keaton ($3,600) The fifth-year senior is an experienced player for the Herd with 68 career receptions since 2019 but has fallen out of favor and now looks like the eighth receiver in a seven-man rotation. That’s a steep nosedive on the depth chart.
Bargain Bin – WR Darryle Simmons ($3,300) Simmons has been around the block, now in his fourth collegiate season with stops at Virginia Tech and Stephen F. Austin. Slow start in his transition to Marshall, but that’s picked up in the last three games with 19 of his 22 targets coming in that span.
Pivot Play – QB Cam Fancher ($7,100) I left Fancher for dead after throwing for 90 yards in the bowl game victory over Connecticut last season. Just twice in seven starts in 2022 did Fancher throw for more than 260 yards in a game. The junior quarterback has already done that four times this season and has dual-threat ability with double-digit carries in four of six games played. JMU’s secondary is one of the better groups in the Sun Belt, ranking 26th in pass D success rate and allowing just 19.7 FPPG. I’d put Fancher third among the QB options, but its close because of his rushing ability.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Have fun deciphering this situation as Marshall will rotate seven different receivers throughout the game. Caleb Crooms leads the team in targets, receptions, and touchdowns, as well as drops. At least four receptions in each of the last four games, but everything is within five yards of the LOS with a 4.4 aDOT and 8.6 yards per catch average. There are concentrated target shares for both Rice and James Madison that I’d rather select from than this crapshoot of a situation.
Injury Notes – TE Cade Conley ($4,500) The Central Michigan transfer was expected to be cleared to play last week against Georgia State but did not see the field. Was an integral part of the Marshall passing game prior to the injury with 18 receptions on 21 targets.
