Middle Tennessee vs. Liberty
Point-Spread: Liberty -13.5
O/U Total: 55
Implied Score: Lib 34 – MTSU 21
Weather: 57 degrees / 0% rain / 2 mph winds
Middle Tennessee:
Top Play(s) – QB Nick Vattiato ($7,000) Third best QB option on the slate at a reasonable price, so if you spend up at the skill positions and fade one of Reed and/or Salter at QB, Vattiato is the choice with a 23-point projection. My priority on the slate is to make Salter and Reed work, though, as this is the best pass defense in CUSA with Liberty, allowing just 14.9 FPPG to opposing QBs. Middle Tennessee is 19th nationally in pass play percentage (55.5%).
Fade – WR DJ England-Chisolm ($4,100) Season-low last week in playing time as England-Chisolm was targeted just twice against Louisiana Tech. The senior gave way to WR Zack Dobson ($3,500), a former 3-star recruit who’s always had the talent but has been buried on the depth chart over his five-year career. Converted on all six of his targets.
Bargain Bin – See above on Dobson.
Pivot Play – Stack Two MTSU receivers without Vattiato. Two Sam Houston State receivers combined for 42 fantasy points in their matchup with Liberty. Same for Buffalo and New Mexico State, with multiple receivers hitting double-digit fantasy points. This is a stingy Liberty secondary, but game script aids fantasy production for opposing WRs and should here as well with MTSU being a double-digit underdog. WR Elijah Metcalf ($6,800) has had four touchdowns in the last four games with 13 more targets than the next closest MTSU receiver. WR/TE Holden Willis ($6,300) has been targeted 31 times in the last four games alone – 35 targets for the season.
Best of the Rest – RB Jaiden Credle ($6,000) Only an option if Peasant is out. MTSU is a pass-first offense in a game they’re double-digit underdogs. Liberty is allowing the 12th fewest fantasy points in the country to opposing backfields. WR Justin Olson ($5,600) has developed into a reliable third option in the passing game with 22 of his 36 targets coming in the last three weeks. He’s surpassed WR Javonte Sherman ($3,200) on the depth chart, despite Sherman being the listed starter.
Injury Notes – RB Frank Peasant ($5,700) As of Tuesday morning writing this, I haven’t seen an update on Peasant, who missed last week’s contest against Louisiana Tech. The MTSU staff writer (Sam Doughton) has been excellent at announcing pregame information on Twitter, so I suggest following him if looking for Blue Raider info.
Liberty:
Top Play(s) – QB Kaidon Salter ($8,600) Salter hasn’t played up to expectations the last few weeks after dominating the competition in the month of September. This could be a get-right spot against the Middle Tennessee defense that is 115th in pass D success rate and allowing the third-most fantasy points in the country to opposing QBs.
Fade – RB Billy Lucas ($5,400) If you’re looking for a “fade Mike” selection, this might be the best opportunity. Lucas did receive eight carries last week in his return from injury, while Quinton Cooley dominated the volume share in the Liberty backfield. Will the backfield splits remain that way with Cooley’s hot streak, or will Lucas’ return allow Liberty to revert back to the 50-50 split we saw prior to his injury?
Bargain Bin – WR Noah Frith ($3,800) Unfortunately, we’re not going to find out (most likely) any update on WR Elijah Smoot ($4,300) who wound up playing just a single snap last week against Jacksonville State. Should he be out, former starter Noah Frith will get the start opposite Daniels on the outside. While the 6-foot-4 senior lost his starting job to a better player, this is a receiver with 80 receptions in his career.
Pivot Play – WR CJ Daniels ($6,000) Folks will be down on Daniels this week after his dud against Jacksonville State with 18 yards and a drop on five targets. Still would argue he’s probably the third best WR option on the slate outside of Corley and Lacy, leading the Flames in every receiving category (drops too unfortunately). MTSU is allowing 21.3 FPPG to opposing WR1s.
Best of the Rest – RB Quinton Cooley ($6,800) You’re reviewing 50-60 games each week and you tend to gloss over a player or two, not realizing how well a player has been performing for a stretch of time. Cooley is that player this week with four 100-yard rushing efforts in the last five games. This past week’s performance was promising for his season-long outlook in that Billy Lucas returned from injury, yet Cooley still saw a season-high 28 attempts on the ground. Liberty is the clear head of the class in C-USA, so expect game scripts the rest of the year to work in Cooley’s favor. Middle Tennessee has one of the better run defenses for CUSA standards, allowing just 11 FPPG to opposing RB1s. WR Treon Sibley ($5,200) has been an worthy counterpart to CJ Daniels at receiver, tied for the team lead in touchdowns (3) and second in targets, receptions and yards with a 80% catch rate.
Injury Notes – n/a
Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State
Point-Spread: WKU -7
O/U Total: 60.5
Implied Score: WKU 34 – Jax St 27
Weather: 57 degrees / 1% rain / 2 mph winds
Western Kentucky:
Top Play(s) – WR Malachi Corley ($7,800) and QB Austin Reed ($9,000) 100% exposure, and you make everything else fit around the Western Kentucky star duo. Floor and upside, facing a Jacksonville defense that has allowed 30 or more points in each of the last three games.
Fade – RB Davion Ervin-Poindexter ($4,300) If this were a 12-game slate, I’d say fade the entire WKU running back group as this is a 4-way backfield split on a team that runs the ball just 36.4% of the time – 129th in the country. For a three-game slate and a touchdown favorite, we’ll need to mix in at least one of the WKU rushers somewhere. Ervin-Poindexter appears to be on the low end of the totem pole since fumbling twice in the Week 3 matchup against Ohio State. In the last three games, just six total carries.
Bargain Bin – WR Jimmy Holiday ($4,000) Its very evident that the reason this WKU offense isn’t functioning at peak levels similar to 2022 is the lack of a competent WR2 next to Corley. Dalvin Smith was expected to be that guy, but injuries have been a setback. It’s most certainly possible to not have exposure to any WKU receivers outside of Corley. Holiday, the Tennessee transfer, is somewhat intriguing from the standpoint that he’s seen his playing time increase the last two games, though resulting in just 70 receiving yards.
Pivot Play – WR Dalvin Smith ($5,200) In his return from injury, Smith played 44% of the offensive snaps against Louisiana Tech with four targets. Conventional thinking would be that Smith’s reps would increase the following week as he gets more comfortable following the time off. Nope, just 26% of the snaps played in Week 6. Unfortunately, we’re not sure whether that drop is performance or health related. Here’s to hoping it’s the latter and that the week of helped Smith regain the form that we saw in Week 1 with 97 yards on 11 targets. WKU needs someone to pair with Corley for the passing game to function closer towards last year’s level and Smith is that guy. Or maybe this is all just wishful thinking.
Best of the Rest – RB Markese Stepp ($4,600) The former Nebraska and USC transfer has been the one constant among the WKU running backs with between 6-9 rushing attempts in each of the last four games. Jacksonville State has allowed 28 and 27 fantasy points to RB1s in the last two games. WR Easton Messer ($5,800) was the only receiver I had confidence in outside of Corley coming into the Louisiana Tech matchup with 26 targets and a 88.5% catch rate. It looks like WKU was trying something new, though, with Dalvin Smith lining up in the slot, which cut into Messer’s playing time. We’ll reiterate that it’s probably not necessary to roster anyone here outside of Corley among the WKU receivers.
Injury Notes – n/a
Jacksonville State:
Top Play(s) – RB Anwar Lewis ($4,200) Might have the highest ownership on the slate among players not named Austin Reed, Malachi Corley and Caullin Lacy. Malik Jackson is expected to sit on Tuesday, meaning Lewis, the projected RB1 coming into the season had it not been for injury, is likely to get the start. Should be noted that an article from the Anniston Star indicates that Lewis still isn’t 100% either currently, and that he’ll get some help in the Jax State backfield. WKU is allowing the 17th most fantasy points in the country to opposing RBs and are 96th in rush D success rate.
Fade – WR Quinton Lane ($5,100) G5 version of Notre Dame’s Tobias Merriweather. Gets a ton of playing time for little to no reason at all yet is still priced as if he’s one of the top WR options on the slate. Eight targets in the last three games for a grand total of 23 receiving yards.
Bargain Bin – WR Jamarye Joiner ($3,200) Thought Joiner would have a bigger impact this season given he’s a P5 transfer from Arizona with previous knowledge of Rich Rod’s offensive system. Playing time has increased in the last two games, including a season high six targets last week against Liberty. Joiner is also a former quarterback; in case you might think Jacksonville State might dip into the bag of tricks with potentially starting their third-string QB tonight.
Pivot Play – WR Perry Carter ($5,700) The former Louisiana-Monroe transfer has solidified himself as WR1 with four or more targets in each of the last six games, and 70 or more yards in four of the last five. WR1s are averaging 19.7 FPPG against the Hilltoppers this season.
Best of the Rest – RB Reggion Bennett ($3,000) or J’Wan Evans ($4,900) When healthy, Jacksonville State has typically leaned on a bell-cow at RB, whether that be Jackson or Lewis. So assuming he’s good to go and remains that way for the entirety of the game, we would assume Lewis gets the lion’s share of the work. But as noted above, the game preview in the Anniston Star did say that Lewis isn’t 100%. Bennett is fourth among RBs in rushing attempts in 2023, while Evans does have four rushing touchdowns on the year – although played just four offensive snaps against Liberty in Week 7.
Injury Notes – QBs. Game-time decision here for both Zion Webb and Logan Smothers as the former is dealing with a concussion-related injury while the latter has an ankle injury. Vegas is somehow still projecting Jacksonville State at close to four touchdowns on Tuesday, so maybe we’ll see one of the two. If not, QB Ashton Frye ($4,500) would get the starting nod. Made brief appearance last week, completing 5-of-11 passes for minimal yardage, along with 23 rushing yards on five attempts. RB Malik Jackson ($7,300) is expected to sit. TE Sean Brown ($4,700) is like a box of chocolates – you never know what you’re gunna git. 103 receiving yards and a touchdown in Week 6, followed by a goose egg against Liberty despite playing over 90% of the offensive snaps.
Southern Mississippi vs. Southern Alabama
Point-Spread: USA -17.5
O/U Total: 53.5
Implied Score: USA 35.5 – USM 17
Weather: 78 degrees / 9% rain / 10 mph winds
Southern Mississippi:
Top Play(s) – RB Frank Gore Jr. ($5,100) Workload should not be an issue as Gore Jr. now has 20+ carries in each of the last three games. Comments from the staff a few weeks back noted that they needed to make it a priority to get their best player the football, and they’ve done just that. Would not be surprised either to see the super-back formation break out on primetime with Gore Jr. in at quarterback, as he’s somehow still the team’s best option at that position too. Volume-wise, Gore is a good play. Matchup-wise, not so much. South Alabama allows the fifth fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs in the country.
Fade – QBs. Truly do not even bother with this. Southern Miss is 108th in pass play success rate facing arguably a top 2 defense in the Sun Belt. I’m not sure Billy Wiles will keep his starting job in this game should he get off to a slow start.
Bargain Bin – WR Latreal Jones ($3,300) Double-digit fantasy points in three of the last four games for Jones who might be the best spend-down option on the slate. Second on the team in routes run and targets (38). WR Davis Dalton ($3,100) Extreme longshot here is Dalton who returned from injury in Week 6 and caught two passes on just two routes run. Reading the Southern Miss boards, they seem to want to see more of this 6-foot-3 redshirt freshman.
Pivot Play – WR Jakarius Caston ($4,600) Southern Miss fans have mixed opinions on Caston, thinking he’s better suited to play the slot position at just 6-feet even. 19 of his 40 targets this season have come in the last two weeks. Will likely see minimal ownership as DFS players look to spend up for Corley and Lacy, while spending down for similar value with Latreal Jones. Four receivers have hit 20 fantasy points this season against this South Alabama secondary.
Best of the Rest – WR Tiaquelin Mims ($4,000) A close third behind Jones and Caston in targets (29), receptions (18) and routes run among Southern Miss receivers. Very little rotation behind the top three. Would not stack multiple receivers together in the same lineup, but you can make the argument for either of the three if entering 20+ lineups.
Injury Notes – n/a
South Alabama:
Top Play(s) – WR Caullin Lacy ($7,000) The senior slot receiver has always had talent but been overshadowed the last few years by some very good players like Jalen Wayne and Jalen Tolbert. Now the featured option in the South Alabama passing game, Lacy has 20 more receptions than the next close Jaguar receiver with half (6) of the team’s receiving touchdowns in 2023. Slot receivers like Lacy have dominated the Southern Miss defense this season with Joey Hobert (Texas State) and Courtney Jackson (Arkansas State) combining for over 50 fantasy points in their matchup with the Golden Eagles.
Fade – WR Javon Ivory ($4,300) For his price point, the former Memphis transfer isn’t an all-out fade, ranking third on the team in targets (21). Below 50% catch rate, though, for Ivory and over 50% of his production came in one game vs. James Madison. Been a complete non-factor in games outside of that one.
Bargain Bin – TE Lincoln Sefcik ($3,500) Tied for third on the team in receptions (12), fourth in targets (13) and fifth in routes run as he shares the tight end position with DJ Thomas-Jones ($3,200). Southern Miss allows the 10th fewest fantasy points in the country to tight ends, but there aren’t many teams that utilize the position in the Sun Belt.
Pivot Play – QB Carter Bradley ($7,100) High floor, low ceiling play at QB as Bradley is a net negative running the football so all of the fantasy production he’ll give us will come via his arm. 74th in pass D success rate is Southern Miss, allowing the 14th most fantasy points to opposing QBs among teams playing in Week 8.
Best of the Rest – RB La’Damian Webb ($6,200) Haven’t caught many games of South Alabama this season but sounds like they’ve been doing some wonky things in the backfield, such as Webb not being out there with the starting unit at times. So, if that happens tonight, don’t go tilting off the rails. Still the team leader in every rushing category with eight of the team’s 13 rushing TDs. Southern Miss is a below-average rush defense, allowing the 18th most fantasy points in the country to running backs. Not opposed to pivoting off Webb to either Kentrel Bullock ($5,000) or Marco Lee ($4,000) given South Alabama is a 17-point favorite. Both are P5 transfers with two rushing touchdowns a piece. This staff has been more willing to rotate the RBs than they did a year ago. WR Jamaal Pritchett ($4,900) is the pivot off of Caullin Lacy and would not stack the two together.
Injury Notes – n/a
