Navy @ Tulsa
Point-Spread: Tulsa -11
O/U Total: 47
Weather: 56 degrees / 0% rain / 10 mph winds
Tulsa:
One injury to monitor here with receiver Keylon Stokes who is listed on the game-week depth chart, but that was the case two weeks ago against South Florida where he wound up not playing. Josh Johnson has emerged this season as the team’s WR1 with 32 percent of the team target share – no receiver accounted for more than 24 percent last year – and has seen double-digit targets in four of the last five weeks. With Stokes out, the trio of Johnson, JuanCarlos Santana and Sam Crawford Jr. dominate the snap counts, on the field 91 percent of the time in Week 7 vs. USF with WR4 Ezra Naylor II rotating in sparingly. This should be a good week to start Davis Brin in your DFS lineups, projected much higher (21.6) than his season-long average, facing a Navy defense that allows a 64.5 completion rate to opposing QBs and has given up at least two passing touchdowns in each of the last four games. Navy is also 112th in Pass Play Success Rate defensively.
Only reason I see Brin not producing a decent stat-line this week would be the Hurricane dominating the LOS with their running game, but not sure that happens against the No. 2 rush defense in the AAC. That ranking is definitely inflated, as the Midshipmen are just 63 in Rush Play Success Rate, but they did limit both SMU and Cincinnati to under 100 yards rushing as a team. At first glance, I think our projection between Shamari Brooks and Deneric Prince is off, with Brooks currently sitting at 18.7 fantasy points, more than double the projected output for Prince. As has been the case this season when both are healthy, and they currently are, the snap counts and volume are near split between the two. At current pricing on DK, give me Prince, who rushed for 110 yards and a TD on 19 carries vs. USF. That is no slight to Brooks who now has three 100-yard rushing performances in the last four games, but I’ll take the cheaper of the two (and more talented) at those salaries.
Navy:
One reason for the minor improvements on offense in recent weeks has been the stability at the quarterback position where sophomore Tai Lavatai has taken every offensive snap in three of the last four games. This still isn’t the Navy offense of old under the likes of Keenan Reynolds or Malcolm Perry under center, but 24 points per game in the last four weeks, including a near-upset of Cincinnati, is a drastic upgrade from where the Midshipmen were at the start of the year. Lavatai is averaging 18 carries per game in that span with four rushing scores.
James Harris continues to be listed as the starter at fullback, but it’s Isaac Ruoss who is seeing the bulk of the workload at the position with a 37-20 edge in rushing attempts the last two games. Top slot-back Carlinos Acie would be the only other Navy rusher that I’d give consideration to with 177 of his 206 rushing yards coming in the last four games. Former quarterback turned slot-back Chance Warren is the pass-catching option between the two, and did have a seaon-high four targets vs. Cincinnati. Averages less than two targets a game so an extreme punt-play. Not in a hurry to roster any Navy rusher, including Lavaitai, with the Tulsa defense allowing just 3.82 YPC on the season, and make a living in opponents’ backfields with 48 TFLs which is fourth-best in the conference.
UNLV @ Nevada
Point-Spread: Nev -20.5
O/U Total: 58
Weather: 53 degrees / 1% rain / 5 mph winds
Nevada:
No reason not to have Carson Strong as a lock for our lineups. UNLV allows 33.2 FPPG to opposing QBs this season and are 124th nationally in pass defense, allowing 289 yards per game through the air. If you’re worried about a potential blowout limiting Strong’s production, he’s posted two 30+ point performances in the three Nevada wins of 10 points or more this season. Nothing about the UNLV defense should deter us from rostering RB1 Toa Taua this week – it’s a matter of what kind of workload he’ll receive. Averages just over 13 touches per game this season, but nothing that I can see stands out for what determines how many carries he’ll receive each week. The Rebels allow 17.5 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season, but actually sit 36th in Rush Success Rate this season, so it’s far easier to beat this UNLV defense via the pass than the run.
That means fire up the Nevada pass-catchers with Romeo Doubs and Cole Turner leading the way. Both are projected at over 19 fantasy points this week and need no introduction. It’s the remaining trio of Justin Lockhart, Tory Horton and Melquan Stovall we need to dissect a bit. Lockhart has no doubt been a pleasant surprise filling in due to injuries to both Horton and Elijah Cooks, with 22 of his 26 catches coming in the last four weeks. But the team beat writer has stated that with a level playing field, Horton is the preferred option to Lockhart, and we saw that reflected with the snap counts against Fresno State with Horton leading the way in that category. Was also productive with 6-49-0 on eight targets, though did have a drop. Stovall saw minimal activity his way with just two targets last Saturday, despite having 13 receptions and over 200 receiving yards the previous two weeks. Just a product of circumstance when Nevada has its full complement of weapons.
UNLV:
The Rebels may be winless still, but have played better of late over the last month, averaging 24 PPG and narrow losses to a pair of ranked opponents in UTSA and Fresno State. Last week against San Jose State was just the third time this season where a UNLV quarterback has thrown for more than 150 yards in a game and just the first time all year only one QB saw snaps with Cameron Friel. The 3-star true freshman out of Hawaii had his best performance of the season, completing 20-of-29 passes for 240 yards and a score against San Jose State. We’ll see what the projections say, but this isn’t a terrible matchup against a Nevada defense that is allowing 27 FPPG to opposing QBs this season, including a pair for 40+ point performances to two middling talents in Jonah Johnson and Hank Bachmeier. Not sure I trust a true freshman on the road against a conference title contender after just one above-average start.
Truly just two receivers of interest here for us is Kyle Williams and fellow starter Steven Jenkins. Williams accounts for 28 percent of the target share with at least eight targets in each of the last three games. Jenkins posted a season-high six receptions on seven targets against San Jose State and has a receiving touchdown in three of the last four weeks. Doesn’t appear as though slot receiver Kilinahe Mendiola-Jensen played against SJSU, and unsure of the reason why. Did have nine receptions on 15 targets in the two games prior so we’ll need to check in on his status.
Charles Williams remains the centerpiece of the offense with three 100-yard rushing performances, sitting 12th in the country, averaging 20.7 attempts per contest. There is nothing special with this Nevada run defense, allowing 20.2 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season and are 86th in Rush Play Success Rate. Don’t see any reason as to why 15+ fantasy points this week isn’t a realistic expectation given expected volume and matchup.