Kentucky vs. Tennessee
Point-Spread: Tenn -11.5
O/U Total: 61.5
Implied Score: Tenn 36.5 – UK 25
Weather: 66 degrees / 0% rain / 1 mph winds
Kentucky:
Top Play(s) – QB Will Levis ($7,100) How does HC Mark Stoops play this matchup with the Vols? One of the slower-paced offenses in the country, Stoops opted to get in a high-scoring affair last year with Tennessee in a 45-42 loss. O/U total suggests we might see the same on Saturday evening. Levis is spreading the ball around more in 2022, unlike last year with just Wan’Dale Robinson, so we’ll lean on the QB here as our top play. Tennessee is allowing over 25 FPPG to opposing QBs on the year.
Fade – RB Chris Rodriguez ($7,100) The good? C-Rod gets FED. 23.3 carries per game since returning from suspension. Kentucky is 46th in rush play percentage. The bad? Kentucky is an 11.5-point dog against a Top 10 rush defense in the country. Just two running backs have scored more than 11 fantasy points against the Vols all year long. Probably not set up for a big Chris Rodriguez performance on a slate that we have a ton of RB options.
Bargain Bin – WR Rahsaan Lewis ($3,000) Mentioning Lewis here as a caution to fade despite his 4-42-1 performance against Mississippi State. Tayvion Robinson ($5,400) is back on the depth chart after sitting vs. the Bulldogs and will start this week.
Pivot Play – WR Barion Brown ($5,000) Don’t look now, but the freshman is now leading Kentucky in targets (37), coming off a season high 7-62-0 performance in Week 7. Just box score scouting here but looks like Brown did benefit from Tayvion Robinson not being in the lineup as he played a season-high 41% of his snaps in the slot. That won’t happen again with Robinson returning.
Best of the Rest – WR Dane Key ($4,900) Was looking at the WR1 at one point in time but looks to be relegated to WR3 with less than 32 receiving yards in each of the last four games. Point we wanted to get across here is that between Robinson, Key and Brown, that trio combines for over 50% of the team’s target share. If looking to pair a WR with Levis, those three are the only selections.
Injury Notes – n/a
Tennessee:
Top Play(s) – QB Hendon Hooker ($7,800) Think its safe to say that Hendon Hooker is matchup proof with the way he’s performing in the second year of Josh Heupel’s offense. No. 1 scoring offense in the country, top 10 in success rate and top 25 in pace. Everything you want in a fantasy quarterback. Hooker had no issues carving up this Kentucky defense a year ago with 300+ passing yards and four TDs. The Wildcats just don’t have any real weaknesses on defense in 2022, and are allowing the fourth fewest FPPG to opposing QB1s in the country so far.
Fade – RB Jabari Small ($6,400) 20+ carries just once this season for Small in the blowout of LSU earlier this year, and reading up on most game previews, the consensus appears to be Kentucky will keep this closer than the Vegas line. Just one RB has scored 20+ fantasy points against the Wildcats this season, and UK is 18th in rush play success rate. Tennessee will throw to move the ball on Saturday.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – WR Jalin Hyatt ($7,000) Are we sure Jalin Hyatt gives back his WR1 mantle now that Cedric Tillman is back in the lineup? The nation’s leader in receiving touchdowns this season (12) and the rest of the Tennessee WRs should give this Kentucky secondary all sorts of issues because of their ability to stretch the field. While the Wildcats are top 20 in pass play success rate defensively, they’re prone to the big play where they rank 98th in explosiveness allowed. That plays right into the hands of Tennessee’s passing offense that leads the country at 11.4 yards per attempt.
Best of the Rest – WR Bru McCoy ($5,700) McCoy took a backseat to Hyatt the last two games, with just four combined receptions on nine targets. Production wasn’t there, but McCoy was on the field for every offensive snap vs. Alabama and 88% of the snaps against Tennessee-Martin. It should be Ramel Keyton ($4,500) that gets downgraded with the Tillman return.
Injury Notes – WR Cedric Tillman ($6,500) Confirmed on Friday that Tillman will play.
USC vs. Arizona
Point-Spread: USC -14.5
O/U Total: 75.5
Implied Score: USC 45 – Zona 30.5
Weather: 81 degrees / 0% rain / 2 mph winds
USC:
Top Play(s) – QB Caleb Williams ($9,800) We know Caleb Williams is going to steamroll Arizona, regardless of if he has his top WR or not. The decision comes down to if should we spend up? Initial lean is yes as the spread at 14.5-points is just close enough to where we should see Williams for the entirety of the game. Arizona is allowing 33.1 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season – the sixth highest mark in the country. Williams is also in the Heisman Race so there is some additional motivation in that sense.
Fade – RB Austin Jones ($5,200) Was some concern in the summer about a possible RBBC with the influx of talent brought into the USC backfield. Those concerns have been squashed with Travis Dye ($7,800) seeing over 51% of the backfield market share. Implied team total is also high enough to where I don’t mind playing both Caleb Williams and Dye in the same lineup. Just one RB has scored more than 20 fantasy points against Arizona this season, but the Wildcats are 123rd in rush play success rate. This is a terrible defense all around.
Bargain Bin – WR Brenden Rice ($3,100) We’ll probably see USC rotate their WRs a bit more than normal on Saturday without Jordan Addison, but Rice is going to be the popular punt play of the group. Why? He’s on the field more than anyone else sans Mario Williams ($6,800), ranking third on the team in both routes run and targets (26). Eliminating the first two games of the year, Rice has averaged 4.8 targets per game over the last five weeks. I’ll probably fade Rice if he winds up looking like the popular punt play of the slate.
Pivot Play – WR Tahj Washington ($4,200) Could we see Washington be the preferred option in the passing game over Rice? The former Memphis transfer has played 50% or more of the offensive snaps in each of the last four games and out-targeted Rice 6-4 in the matchup with Utah.
Best of the Rest – n/a
Injury Notes – WR Jordan Addison ($8,500) 247Sports USC beat writer mentioned that he’s heard from multiple sources that Addison will not play this week. They’re getting him prepared to play vs. California.
Arizona:
Top Play(s) – WR Jacob Cowing ($7,800) While USC is No. 1 in the nation in pass play explosiveness allowed, they’re also 104th in success rate. Aka, they’re willing to give up plenty of underneath junk in order to avoid the big play over the top. That should play well for Cowing who leads the team with 53 receptions on 77 targets, with an aDOT of just 9.5. Everything is within the 10 yards of the LOS.
Fade – n/a. See injury notes below.
Bargain Bin – TE Tanner McLachlan ($3,400) A player I hadn’t heard of until September of this year, McLachlan is tied for 21st among tight ends in targets (32) and faces a USC defense that has a 42-point performance by a tight end on its resume with Dalton Kincaid in Week 7.
Pivot Play – WR Dorian Singer ($5,900) This might be a scenario where we can play two Arizona receivers in the same lineup. Singer is now third in the Pac-12, averaging over 86 yards per game and exactly eight targets per, even as the second fiddle to Cowing.
Best of the Rest – QB Jayden de Laura ($7,000) A few things working in JDL’s favor for Saturday. Game script as a two-touchdown underdog. Arizona is second in the Pac-12 in pass attempts per game (41.4). To my surprise, only one QB has surpassed 25 fantasy points against this secondary which is impressive. WR Tetairoa McMillan ($5,000) is too cheap for a player that has found the end-zone five times in the last four weeks. Averages just under eight targets per game. The WR trio combines for 68% of the team’s target share, so a strategy of rostering multiple Arizona receivers is more than viable.
Injury Notes – RB Michael Wiley ($5,000) Wiley only played 17 snaps vs. Oregon in Week 6 and did not play at all in Week 7. I cannot locate a clear reason as to why but assume it is injury related. HC Jedd Fisch said this week he expects seven true freshmen to start on Saturday. I would venture to guess that RB Jonah Coleman ($4,600) after seeing the bulk of the carries vs. Washington. USC is 99th in rush play success rate so Arizona should have some semblance of production on the ground.
Coastal Carolina vs. Marshall
Point-Spread: Marsh -2.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Implied Score: Marsh 28.5 – Marsh 26
Weather: 60 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Coastal Carolina:
Top Play(s) – WR Jared Brown ($4,300) Second on the team in targets (39) but arguably has been the team’s best offensive player outside of the quarterback, now with all five of his receiving touchdowns coming in the last four games. Don’t see Coastal having a ton of success running the football in this matchup so we should see them throw the ball more than normal.
Fade – RBs. Reese White returned to the mix last week and there was a 50-50 split in carries between he and CJ Beasley. In this particular matchup with a team in Marshall that allows just 10.2 FPPG to opposing RB1s, we’d only have the slightest interest if there was one guy in the CCU backfield to trust. Not the case with White back.
Bargain Bin – TE Xavier Gravette ($4,200) Coastal does not have an Isaiah Likely in 2022 at tight end, but Gravette’s production has increased since coming back from injury in Week 4, now with 12 receptions on 15 targets in the last four games.
Pivot Play – QB Grayson McCall ($7,600) Our gut tells us that CCU will not be able to run the ball against Marshall on Saturday, and as a 2.5-point dog, that should result in 25+ pass attempts for Grayson McCall. He’s already up from 21.9 att/g a year ago to 27.7 att/g in 2022. While Marshall is top 10 in pass play success rate defensively, they’ve also allowed a 40-point performance to Matt McDonald and 28 fantasy points to Lousiana’s Ben Wooldridge. If they can get it done against the Herd, so can McCall.
Best of the Rest – WR Sam Pinckney ($6,600) Not exactly Jaivon Heiligh-like dominance, but Sam Pinckney has been the target hog we expected coming into the year with 33.3% of the share. Take out the Week 1 game against Army and Pinckney is averaging 10 targets per over the last six weeks with three 100-yard performances. WR Tyson Mobley ($5,500) is second on the team in targets (29), receptions (20), and touchdown (3), while also the team leader in routes run in 2022.
Injury Notes – Actually sounds like Braydon Bennett will play in 2022, thanks to a helpful post from a Discord member, but is confirmed out for this weekend, along with Aaron Bedgood.
Marshall:
Lock in Khalan Laborn ($6,300) and worry about the rest of your lineup. Second in the country in attempts per game (26.8) and third in rush yards per game (143.1). He is the Marshall offense, and gets a beautiful matchup with a Coastal defense that allows over 19 FPPG to opposing RBs.
UAB vs. Florida Atlantic
Point-Spread: UAB -4.5
O/U Total: 46.5
Implied Score: UAB 25.5 – UAB 21
Weather: 80 degrees / 62% rain / 19 mph winds
UAB:
We’d dig deeper into UAB on a two or three-game slate, but only one name needed for a night slate, and that’s DeWayne McBride ($8,500). We have a TON of running backs on the slate, so it begs the question, is McBride a lock? The lean here is no, but you’ll get plenty of leverage by rostering McBride because he’ll be largely ignored tonight at his salary. Florida Atlantic is only 80th in rush play success rate but are allowing just 12.8 FPPG to opposing running backs this season so the Owls’ defense is far from a push over. Then again, McBride is matchup-proof, leading the nation in rush yards per game and having topped the century mark in every game played in 2022. Probably not looking at WR Trea Shropshire ($4,900) with a backup QB in Jacob Zeno ($4,800) getting the starting nod Saturday, but the WR1 does lead the country in yards per catch at 24.3. This would be the second straight year he leads the nation in that category. He’s usually good for at least one explosive play per game.
FAU:
It is a home night game for FAU, but this is a team that has lost four out of its last five and the folks are wanting Willie Taggart ousted. Does the team come out fighting with a bowl berth still attainable or will this go off the rails? Only see two potential options here in WR LaJohntay Wester ($6,100) and RB Larry McCammon ($4,900). Wester has assumed the alpha role among the FAU receivers, now with over 30% of the team’s target share, averaging 10.3 targets per over the last six weeks. Was on a string of five straight games of finding the end-zone before being shut out in the last two. UAB is surprisingly below-average at defending the run this year, ranking 94th in rush play success rate and allowing over 16 FPPG to opposing RB1s. McCammon has been impressive for much of the year, seeing double-digit carries in every game and averaging nearly six yards a pop. Brief mention goes to WR2 Jahmal Edrine ($4,500) who’s posted 40 receiving yards or more in all but one game this season and leads FAU in routes run in 2022.
Mississippi vs. Texas A&M
Point-Spread: Miss -1.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Implied Score: Miss 28 – A&M 26.5
Weather: 61 degrees / 48% rain / 9 mph winds
Mississippi:
Top Play(s) – RB Quinshon Judkins ($6,800) The advanced numbers like the A&M rush defense a bit more than a high-level view where the Aggies are 12th out of 14 teams in the SEC in yards allowed on the ground. The big question here is if Zach Evans ($6,100) plays or not. Was suited up last week against LSU but did not see the field as he appeared to have a big brace on his leg. Lane Kiffin provides zero updates with injuries so we’re in the dark yet again. Should Evans sit, Judkins is a lock after getting 25 of the 32 total team carries vs. LSU.
Fade – QB Jaxson Dart ($6,600) Couple of things here. One, the projection isn’t great at just 17 fantasy points. Two, Kiffin mentioned this week that he wants to start limiting the amount of hits Dart is taking in the running game, and we saw that against LSU with just five designed rushing attempts. Lastly, this is one of the best secondaries in the country, ranking 13th in success rate.
Bargain Bin – WR Jordan Watkins ($4,500) Watkins has seen more and more playing time as the season has gone along, with 19 of his 32 targets coming in the last three games. We mentioned this last week that Ole Miss’ starting trio of receivers are starting to perform better of late. And they’re dominating the team target share at 66%.
Pivot Play – WR Malik Heath ($6,400) Not sure what happened against Auburn two weeks ago where Heath put up a goose egg, but he’s been Ole Miss’ best and most consistent receiver in 2022. Second on the team in targets and routes run, but posted a season-high 8-145-0 on nine targets vs. LSU last Saturday.
Best of the Rest – WR Jonathan Mingo ($6,000) Mingo is the team’s leader in targets and the top deep threat with an aDOT of 17.6. But his production is too damn inconsistent with a conversion rate of just 57.6%. 42% of his receiving production came in one game. I’d rather get guaranteed points with Malik Heath. Though, it’s really not necessary to roster any Ole Miss receivers for a team that passes the ball just 36% of the time.
Injury Notes – n/a
Texas A&M:
Top Play(s) – RB Devon Achane ($6,000) This slate is just ridiculous with the amount of potential running backs at our disposal. Achane is close to ‘lock’ territory, garnering 70% of the team’s backfield market share. So much for those concerns about his small stature and handling a 20+ touch per game workload in the SEC. The Ole Miss defense has gone off the rails the last two weeks, allowing over 550 combined rushing yards with eight touchdowns against Auburn and LSU – not exactly two teams with dominant running games.
Fade – QBs. We’re getting Source Wars from the Texas A&M “insiders” with one site claiming it will be Haynes King, and the other saying it will be 5-star freshman Conner Weigman. In the words of Stephen A. Smith and his infamous GIF…”we don’t care.”
Bargain Bin – WRs Evan Stewart ($4,600) and Moose Muhammad III ($4,200) Both are viable options at their price points, and could see even more attention now that WR3 Chris Marshall is suspended from the team. Muhammad is averaging 7.6 targets per game over the last three weeks. Stewart has been excellent all year, averaging 10 targets per, with a combined 26 over the last two games alone. The hope is whichever starting quarterback can play well enough to support these two studs.
Pivot Play – n/a
Best of the Rest – n/a
Injury Notes – See above regarding the quarterbacks. Stayed tuned.
Arizona State vs. Colorado
Point-Spread: Az St -13.5
O/U Total: 47.5
Implied Score: Az St 30.5 – Col 17
Weather: 58 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Arizona State:
Top Play(s) – RB Xazavian Valladay ($6,700) Valladay is going to be ignored because of the surplus of RB options on the slate. But he has the BEST matchup of any running back this week, facing a Colorado defense that is giving up the most fantasy points (26.9) to opposing RB1s in the entire country. Valladay should feast on this lifeless defense that allowed over 40 fantasy points last week to a true freshman making his first start.
Fade – Everyone beyond the Top 3. Beyond Valladay, Emory Jones and Elijah Badger, we don’t have an Arizona State player projected to score more than seven points.
Bargain Bin – n/a.
Pivot Play – WR Elijah Badger ($6,900) We’re spending up on RBs and QBs on this slate, so it’s unlikely we see Badger with a high ownership rating. The junior receiver has quietly turned into one of the best wideouts in the Pac-12, now 10th in the conference in yards per game (70.0) with three of his four receiving touchdowns coming in the last two weeks. Was targeted nine times in each of the last two games.
Best of the Rest – QB Emory Jones ($6,200) Totally hypothetical on my part, but I wonder if we see some of backup Trenton Bourguet this week. Emory Jones was a portion of why ASU lost last week to Stanford, completing only 54% of his passes with multiple turnovers. Last time we saw Bourguet, he led the upset win over Washington, throwing three touchdowns. Don’t think there’s been any public hint of a switch, but I wouldn’t be shocked if a change happened.
Injury Notes – n/a
Colorado:
Just one player projected to score more than 10 fantasy points and we’re most certainly not starting QB J.T. Shrout in any of our lineups. The lone intriguing piece here is WR Jordyn Tyson ($3,000) at min pricing. Are we advising playing him? No. But the 6-foot-2 true freshman has gotten seven targets in each of the last two games. Would it shock me to see Tyson outperform USC’s Brenden Rice this week at their min salaries? Nope, and the ownership percentages will be drastically different between the two.
Baylor vs. Texas Tech
Point-Spread: Tx Tech -2.5
O/U Total: 60.5
Implied Score: Tx Tech 31.5 – Bay 29
Weather: 59 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Baylor:
Top Play(s) – RB Richard Reese ($5,900) The star freshman now ranks second among all first-year players in the country with nine rushing touchdowns and rushing yards (643). Career-high 31 attempts for 186 yards in the win over Kansas last week and benefitted from the best performance of the year from the Baylor offensive line. Tech is a middle of the road run defense, ranking 58th in rush play success rate and allowing over 18 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Baylor’s OL is 17th in stuff rate and 23rd in line yards so they should be able to control the LOS.
Fade – WRs. If you want to play musical chairs as to which Baylor receiver pops off this week, be my guest. No wideout has more than 14% of the total target share.
Bargain Bin – TE Ben Sims ($4,400) The most consistent of the Baylor pass-catchers, posting 30 receiving yards or more in all but one game this season, and the team leader in targets (32). Very low upside here.
Pivot Play – WR Gavin Holmes ($5,100) Yes, I know what I said about the Baylor receivers. But if we’re playing the potential slate-breaking game, you might consider spending up just a bit for someone like Holmes who does have a 200-yard game on his resume this season, than go with the safe play in Ben Sims. Most extensive playing time of the year the last two weeks for Holmes with 50% of his targets this season coming in that span. You also run the risk of a goose egg as he’s posted 20 yards or less in half the games played in 2022.
Best of the Rest – QB Blake Shapen ($6,400) 18-point projection probably won’t get it done for us in what should be a high-scoring slate. Only way you play Shapen in my opinion is in a game stack with Behren Morton where you’re projecting this game to shoot out. Baylor is Top 40 nationally in pace, facing the No. 1 team in pace, so there is a non-zero chance that occurs? Tech is 18th in pass play success rate and allowing 24.9 FPPG to opposing QBs.
Injury Notes – WR Monaray Baldwin ($7,100) Only played 18 snaps vs. Kansas last week before leaving the game due to injury. HC Dave Aranda said that they won’t know until Thursday about his status, essentially meaning we won’t know until this afternoon. RB Craig Williams sounds like he is probable. Taye McWilliams is still a week or two out from returning. Neither will be much of a factor even when they do return to the field.
Texas Tech:
Top Play(s) – QB Behren Morton ($6,800) Block out the nonsense and obvious coach-speak from the staff. Absolutely idiotic decision by the coaching staff if they were to purposefully play Tyler Shough this week. Morton is the guy now and moving forward that you build a program around. Shough is an injury-prone senior that is not part of the future. Morton struggling against Baylor…different story. But I don’t see that happening either as their secondary has been torched all year long, allowing 23.9 FPPG to opposing QBs and 77th in pass play success rate.
Fade – RBs. You know where the rushing props this week stand for both SaRodorick Thompson and Tahj Brooks? Around 40 yards for each. The two weeks prior to last it was Thompson getting the bulk of the work. Last week it was Brooks. No rhyme or reason to how the backfield shakes out here with the staff always reverting to the “hot hand” approach. Baylor is No. 2 in the Big 12 in yards allowed on the ground and 18th in rush play success rate. Easy fade for this slate.
Bargain Bin – WR Nehemiah Martinez ($3,000) Price’s return to the lineup impacts Martinez more than it would White, in my opinion (more on that below). If Price is out again, Martinez deserves heavy consideration, coming off a season-high 6-52-0 on seven targets vs. West Virginia.
Pivot Play – WR Xavier White ($4,600) Doesn’t matter to me if Myles Price is back in the lineup or not. Inside receivers combined for 16 receptions on 19 targets last week. Remember last year with OC Zach Kittley at Western Kentucky. Malachi Corley was the WR2 in the slot and still caught 75 passes as a freshman. Not to mention White has been more effective than Price was when in the lineup. I’d start White confidently again this week.
Best of the Rest – Outside receivers. I think we’re at the point where we have to accept that Tech doesn’t have “a guy” on the outside like Kittley had a year ago with Mitchell Tinsley. Jerand Bradley ($4,700), Loic Fouonji ($3,700) and Trey Cleveland ($4,800) all played 50% or more of the offensive snaps last week, and J.J. Sparkman ($3,800) is back on the depth chart which could muddy the waters further.
Injury Notes – WR Myles Price ($5,600) Price is back on the depth chart and probable to play, but no confirmation as of Saturday morning.
Michigan State vs. Michigan
Point-Spread: UM -22.5
O/U Total: 62.5
Implied Score: UM 38.5 – MSU 16
Weather: 53 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Michigan State:
Top Play(s) – WR Jayden Reed ($5,800) Michigan statistically has the best secondary in the Big Ten and fifth in the country, allowing 164.1 yards per game through the air. Jayden Reed is talented enough to expose them if Payton Thorne can get him the ball consistently. Since coming back from injury, Reed is averaging 8.3 targets per game and has scored a touchdown in three of the last four weeks. I think it bodes well for the passing game that Michigan State’s OL has at least done a good job in pass pro, allowing just 1.7 sacks per game. Thorne should have some time to throw Saturday.
Fade – RB Jalen Berger ($5,800) MSU is 12th in the Big Ten in rushing. Not having a Kenneth Walker type back is obviously part of the problem, but the OL is 91st in line yards, 93rd in stuff rate and 74th in rush play success rate. It’s a bottom-third group in the Big Ten going against the stout Michigan front. Good luck.
Bargain Bin – n/a.
Pivot Play – WR Keon Coleman ($5,300) In the same vein as Reed, Coleman is more than talented enough to give the Michigan secondary some trouble. The duo now combines for 43% of the total target share with over half of the team’s receiving touchdowns on the year. Michigan is allowing the fewest fantasy points per game in the country to opposing WR1s at just 9.7.
Best of the Rest – QB Payton Thorne ($6,100). MSU’s passing game has been marginally better than the rushing attack, but still just eighth in the conference in yards per game. Veteran quarterback Payton Thorne is completing 65.4% of his passes with 11 touchdowns, but his yards per attempt (7.2) and QB rating (136.65) are both down considerably from 2021. Schedule has contributed, but Michigan is second in the country, allowing just 14.6 FPPG to opposing QBs. The sticky coverage combined with 24 team sacks gives opposing offenses fits.
Injury Notes – n/a
Michigan:
Top Play(s) – RB Blake Corum ($7,900) Do I really need to explain the reasons to roster Corum this week? Bold prediction. Michigan gets revenge for last year’s Kenneth Walker performance by getting 4-5 touchdowns for Corum on the ground.
Fade – n/a. Everyone is viable at this pricing.
Bargain Bin – WR Andrel Anthony ($3,100) Do I have the guts to actually insert Anthony into my lineups? Nope. But his playing time has increased the last two weeks, now essentially sharing time with Cornelius Johnson ($3,800 on the outside. Remember last year when Anthony had two touchdowns against the Spartans? Repeat performance?
Pivot Play – QB J.J. McCarthy ($6,000) Sophomore quarterback J.J. McCarthy continues to play proficient football, now having completed 70% of his passes in each of the last three games, though he’s not being tasked to do much with how the running game is performing. Saturday’s matchup will present opportunities for McCarthy in the passing game, facing an MSU secondary that is struggling for the second-straight year. Far from the 324.8 yards per game allowed in 2021, but the Spartans still rank 13th in the Big Ten in yards given up through the air.
Best of the Rest – RB Donovan Edwards ($5,500) The Penn State performance is what we were expecting from Edwards and the entire running game for much of the year. Just bludgeoned the Nittany Lions for over 400 yards on the ground and now boast the No. 7 rushing attack in the country, behind an offensive line that is improving with every week. WR Ronnie Bell ($5,800) continues to pace the Michigan receivers with 27% of the target share and 35 receptions. WR1s are averaging 20.8 FPPG against the Spartans. TE Luke Schoonmaker ($3,700) was quite against Penn State but had 10 targets the prior game. 20 of his 23 receptions have come in the last four weeks, and Michigan State has allowed five tight ends to score over seven fantasy points against them in 2022. Might not seem like a lot, but Michigan State has struggled to defend that position for the last year and a half.
Injury Notes – n/a
Pitt vs. North Carolina
Point-Spread: UNC -3.5
O/U Total: 65.5
Implied Score: UNC 34.5 – Pitt 31
Weather: 70 degrees / 0% rain / 12 mph winds
Pitt:
Top Play(s) – RB Israel Abanikanda ($7,700) 28 and 37 caries for Abanikanda the last two games, and Rodney Hammond was back in the lineup last week too. I remember a Pat Narduzzi quote from a few weeks back when discussing Hammond’s return that essentially said we’re not turning back with the way Izzy is running right now. The defensive numbers aren’t as eye-popping for UNC against the run, but still rank 100th in rush play success rate and allowing 18.4 FPPG.
Fade – QB Kedon Slovis ($5,900) 12.5-point projection. Don’t care what defense he’s facing. No thanks. FWIW – North Carolina has given up THE MOST fantasy points to opposing QB1s in the country.
Bargain Bin – TE Gavin Bartholomew ($4,000) WR3 Bub Means played just one snap last week vs. Louisville. By design or injury, I’m not sure. But as a result, Pitt ran a lot of 12-personnel, meaning two tight ends on the field. If that’s the case again, Bartholomew is the third option in the passing game. We know UNC is poor in all defensive categories, but they’ve allowed the most points in the country to opposing TE1s this season.
Pivot Play – Pitt WRs. We don’t have interest in Slovis, but still have him projected over 200 passing yards against this UNC secondary in a game where Pitt is projected to score four touchdowns. North Carolina is 40th in total fantasy points given up this season to opposing WR groups. Neither Jared Wayne nor Konata Mumpfield have been particularly impressive this year, but the duo combines for 43% of the team’s target share and should a handful of targets tonight.
Best of the Rest – n/a
Injury Notes – n/a
North Carolina:
Top Play(s) – QB Drake Maye ($7,900) Too cheap a price to pay for our QB3 for the weekend, projected at over 31 fantasy points. There are a few concerns, though. Pitt is 10th in time of possession, wanting to run the football and slow the game down. The Panthers are also 22nd in pass play success rate and giving up just 22.0 FPPG to opposing QB1s.
Fade – RBs. Makes zero sense to risk trotting out any of the UNC running backs on this type of slate. They’re rotating 2-3 backs each week.
Bargain Bin – RB Caleb Hood ($3,000) On that note, Hood did lead the Heels with 11-52-0 in the narrow win over Duke in Week 7. That was the second-straight game in which Hood out-snapped Omarion Hampton. We’re not playing Hood this week, but maybe a situation to monitor for a future DFS slate.
Pivot Play – WR Antoine Green ($3,800) Surprised to see Green priced this low as all he’s done is produce since coming back from injury, establishing himself as the clear WR2 next to Downs. Four touchdowns in four games with multiple 100-yard performances. Clear deep threat for Maye with an aDOT of 24.7 on the season. His aDOT has not been lower than 20 yards in any game played this season. Projection of 13 fantasy points this week puts Green squarely in the mix.
Best of the Rest – WR Josh Downs ($8,000) Averaging just 8.3 targets per game which is down significantly from 11 targets per a year ago but makes some sense with UNC having more weapons this season in the passing game. Since we’re spending up with all the running backs, I think Downs will see very little ownership, making him a strong GPP play.
Injury Notes – n/a
