Texas @ Baylor
Point-Spread: Bay -2.5
O/U Total: 61.5
Weather: 66 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Texas:
Bijan Robinson is always in play no matter the pricing. It’s worked more often than not this season, so why stop now? Road matchup at Baylor doesn’t overly scare me, as the Bears are 61st in Rush Play Success Rate and sixth in the Big 12, allowing 134 YPG. Baylor did shut down both BYU and West Virginia in recent weeks, holding both teams to under 100 yards total on the ground. But we have evidence of Breece Hall scoring 47 fantasy points against this defense, and 26 points from Jaylen Warren. Robinson is right there in that category in terms of talent and volume. Quarterback Casey Thompson’s projection is near level with Tyler Van Dyke at a slightly higher pricing and a worse matchup. Baylor is allowing just 18.7 FPPG to quarterbacks this season and just one performance of over 20 fantasy points. Decent implied total here of 29.25 so Texas should be able to score in this one, but I’d save Thompson for GPPs only in game stacks.
Jordan Whittington had surgery on his broken clavicle and won’t be back in the foreseeable future, so we do have a centralized target tree of WR1 Xavier Worthy and Joshua Moore as the primary options. The two combined for 17 of the 25 targets against Oklahoma State, with no other receiving having more than two. The two belonged to Marcus Washington, who started in the slot in place of Whittington, and did have a 58-yard reception against the Cowboys. Kelvontay Dixon was the fourth receiver in the rotation but was on the field for just 13 offensive plays. I wouldn’t risk it this week, especially with him not being min priced, but the staff indicated during the bye that they’ll be looking for ways to get Alabama transfer Keilan Robinson involved more in the offense with the inconsistencies/injuries at receiver. Might see some time in the slot alongside Washington – where we thought he should be all along.
Baylor:
Gerry Bohanon continues to feel underpriced here at $7,200 for a quarterback averaging 23.1 FPPG this season and projected at just under 25 fantasy points this week. I would say we run the risk of Baylor finding traction on the ground against a porous Texas run D like they did two weeks ago against BYU where Bohanon posted his second-lowest output of the season, but the junior QB still attempted 28 passes that Saturday which is well above his season average. Just got unlucky by three rushing touchdowns from starting RB Abram Smith. Texas’ implied total signifies to me that chances are low Baylor can be solely reliant on the run to win this game. Speaking of Smith, it was a career-high for him in Week 7 with 188 yards and three scores on 27 carries, finally seeing some separation between him and backfield mate Trestan Ebner who had just 11 attempts. Up until that point, we were looking at a 55-45 percent split between the two. The projections look to reflect more what we saw in Week 7 vs. the entirety of the season which brings some risk for me here with Smith. I wouldn’t jam him in our lineups with the chance we see a similar game script as we did the first six games, but both RBs are viable against 114th ranked rush defense in the country. Baylor’s offensive line has taken a step back since the first month, but still rank 3rd nationally in Line Yards and 12th in Rush Play Success Rate.
If you play Bohanon, I think you stack him with WR1 Tyquan Thornton and vice versa as the senior wideout dominates the team target share at 30 percent. WR2 R.J. Sneed had his best performance of the season against BYU with 6-72-0 on six targets, but his production has been sporadic for much of the year. One notable trend I do see with the Texas defense is their struggles with smaller slot receivers this year. Marvin Mims, Kaylon Geiger, Myles Price and Brennan Presley all scored 13 fantasy points or more against the Longhorns. Bodes well potentially for Baylor’s slot receiver in Sneed. Tight end Ben Sims seems to be incorporated in the passing offense more in recent weeks with two touchdowns in Week 6 vs. West Virginia and a season-high six targets against BYU. WR3 Drew Estrada gets a bump up from $3,100 to $4k despite a goose egg last time out.
Michigan @ Michigan State
Point-Spread: Mich -4
O/U Total: 50.5
Weather: 52 degrees / 20% rain / 9 mph winds
Michigan:
Don’t even tempt yourself with Cade McNamara at $5,300, despite the Spartans ranking last in the Big Ten by a wide margin in pass defense. Numbers are inflated by early-season opponents as the Spartans are 65th in Pass Play Success Rate this season, indicating they are far better than the overall numbers. No doubt in this rivalry game with so much focus on the running games that both teams are going to take their shots in the passing game, but I can promise you that you’ll be left disappointed if rostering McNamara in DFS. The Spartans have allowed just five passing plays of 30 yards or more this season so expect a lot of methodical drives from the Wolverines.
Similar situation at receiver where everyone is priced down this week. Cornelius Johnson remains the WR1, leading the Wolverines with 30 targets, but is not a possession receiver that will attract a high volume of targets. His 18.6 aDOT is why he’s averaging 18.4 yards per reception, but we just covered how good MSU is at limiting the big play through the air. Does someone like Mike Sainristil become more attractive to us at $3,400, coming off a season high six targets last week? MSU will give up plenty of underneath junk, allowing 66.7 percent of passes to be completed within 20 yards of the LOS against P5 opponents (per PFF). Daylen Baldwin was emerging as the team’s No. 2 target behind Johnson, notching 13 targets in Week 6 against Nebraska, but his role is minimized now that Roman Wilson is back in the lineup.
We know what to expect at this point from the Michigan running backs. This will be a 55-45 split in favor of Hassan Haskins, but Blake Corum will continue to outproduce him on slightly less carries. I really like Corum here as opposed to Haskins despite the pricing, as the sophomore back is featured often in the passing game, with nine catches on nine targets in the last two weeks alone. We already discussed MSU giving up the underneath routes, and if there is a trick pass play or screen called by the Wolverines, Corum is the likelier option of the two to be on the receiving end
Michigan State:
If wanting to choose one of the two quarterbacks in this matchup, I’ll select Payton Thorne who has the better collection of receivers, and has shown some upside this season with four performances of 26 fantasy points or more. If you take advantage of this Michigan defense, there’s a better chance it happens via the pass vs. the run as the Wolverines are 33rd in Pass Play Success Rate. A very good mark, but the Wolverines rush defense is really rounding into form of late, ranking 14th in Rush Play Success Rate and are the No. 1 rated group per Pro Football Focus. Michigan is allowing just 116 yards per game on the ground and have given up just 19 running plays of 10 yards or more – ninth-best in the country. Overall, the Wolverines are allowing just 10.6 FPPG to opposing RBs this season. I do think that means we fade Kenneth Walker here is the matchup isn’t great and his attainable salary at $6,700 will lead to a higher ownership in GPPs. Walker remains the nation’s leader in rushing yards per game at 142.4 and his 21.7 att/g is eight in the country so you know he’ll get the rock. Jayden Reed and Jalen Nailor continue to dominate the team target share at 55 percent, so it’s not necessary to stack Thorne with them. Don’t think there is one characteristic about either that play would differentiate them from the other as a better play, aside from Nailor being the team leader with 56 targets. We’ve seen both players break the slate at one point this season. WR3 Tre Mosley has seen at least four targets in each of the last four games.
Iowa @ Wisconsin
Point-Spread: Wisc -3
O/U Total: 36
Weather: 52 degrees / 4% rain / 8 mph winds
Iowa:
Wisconsin ranks No. 2 in total defense, 17th in scoring defense, 10th in pass defense and are the No. 1 overall rush defense in the country. The one positive I can say here is that Spencer Petras has a higher projection than Cade McNamara at a lower price-point – if you were tempted to choose either player. Strongly advise against that. Sam LaPorta is relatively-cheap at $3,700 as he leads the team in targets (44) and receptions (28). Tyler Goodson found some success against this Wisconsin defense last year with 106 yards and a TD on 11 carries, but the Iowa offensive line is a shell of what it was a year ago, ranking 128th in Line Yards and 130th in Stuff Rate. Go ahead and ‘X’ Goodson out of the player pool.
Wisconsin:
Only player here that is projected to score double-digit fantasy points this week is true freshman Braelon Allen who has now rushed for 100+ yards in each of the last three games. Chez Mellusi dominated the touches last week in the backfield with 28 attempts compared to just 11 for Allen, but the two fumbles from the freshman had everything to do with the disparity. Against Army in Week 7, despite another fumble from Allen, the carries were dead even between the two runners. Unless we see any indication that the Wisconsin staff will be riding Mellusi with Allen’s fumbling issues, we’ll side with the true freshman here. Graham Mertz hasn’t thrown for more than 115 yards in the last four weeks so we don’t even need to dig into the Wisconsin passing game.
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