***There will not be a DFS writeup for the Saturday late slate this week***
Miami @ Pittsburgh
Point-Spread: Pitt -9
O/U Total: 61
Weather: 57 degrees / 27% rain / 3 mph winds
Miami:
This game was one that stuck out initially as a potential game-stack, but looks like the weather might damper that enthusiasm in rostering players here with plenty of rain expected. Projections like Tyler Van Dyke a bit more this week after his four-touchdown performance a week ago against NC State, but on the road against a tough Pitt defense in inclement weather won’t be an easy task. The Panthers have generally been solid this year against opposing quarterbacks, outside of the Western Michigan mishap, allowing just 22.4 FPPG and are sitting fourth in the ACC in pass defense, giving up 209 YPG through the air. General rule the past year and a half is to avoid starting running backs against this Pitt defense that is allowing just 13.8 FPPG to RB1s this season and are 20th nationally against the run, but I think Jaylan Knighton is considerable this week at $7,900. Averaging 23 touches per game over the last two weeks since taking over the starting job and has eight receptions on nine targets as a receiver coming out of the backfield. Two best performances from a running back this season against Pitt were Sean Tyler and Jahmyr Gibbs who combined for 136 receiving yards and a touchdown.
I’m still surprised by Van Dyke favoring the outside receivers in this offense since taking over the starting role with Charleston Rambo and Key’Shawn Smith being targeted a combined 36 times in the last two weeks alone. Production hasn’t necessarily been there for Smith, with just 104 yards receiving in that two-game span and has yet to find the end-zone this season, but that volume at $3,700 makes him very enticing. Rambo is best-served as a GPP option as he runs very hot/cold with his production, but has posted two games of 36 fantasy points or more this season. Mike Harley’s output this season has been fairly steady, but is the clear third option in the passing game if the last two weeks are any indication. Just five catches on nine targets. Pitt has defended the tight end position extremely well this season, allowing just 2.1 FPPG and just one player (Jacob Warren) topping double-digit fantasy points. Will Mallory hasn’t had the season we expected, but was able to find the end-zone last week for the first time on four targets.
Pittsburgh:
Major injuries to monitor here with both Jordan Addison and Izzy Abanikanda looking very questionable according to Pat Narduzzi. As of Thursday, Narduzzi stated that both will be game-time decisions, but Addison has a better shot at playing than Abanikanda does currently. Attention always goes to the passing game in a Mark Whipple offense, especially how Addison has been performing to date, but I think we need to give a strong look to the backfield here if Abanikanda is indeed out. A.J. Davis has hit the portal, so we could be down to just two options here with Vincent Davis and freshman Rodney Hammond. From a pure talent standpoint, easy decision with Hammond who is now averaging over six yards a carry on the season. Davis is the trusty veteran who’s consistently seen more snaps each week. Given how Whipple runs his offense, we’re likely to see a heavy dosage of both players, and our projections this week reflect that. Miami now sits fifth in the ACC against the run, allowing 145 YPG, but are just 79th in Rush Play Success Rate. Don’t think we go crazy here given Pitt is a pass-first offense and their rotational habits in the backfield, but this is a spot to go cheap potentially.
I tried to look at the game logs to see who would benefit most if Addison were out, and I’m not exactly sure at this moment. Jared Wayne is fourth on the team in targets, and PFF indicates he has shifted to the slot at times this season, including 73.9 percent of the snaps against Clemson last week. I thought that might be former Hawaii transfer Melquise Stovall, who played that position primarily at his previous stop, but he’s been in that role just 18.3 percent of the time this season. Eight of his 15 targets have come in the last two games. Taysir Mack has been the most consistent of the bunch outside of Addison, with 22 receptions on 39 targets with three touchdowns coming in the last four games. Lucas Krull’s production has dipped severely these last two games as the team is getting backup Gavin Bartholomew more involved in the offense. The Hurricanes are allowing just 3.8 FPPG to opposing TE’s this season but really haven’t faced any teams that utilize the position outside of Alabama, and Cameron Latu had a field day against Miami. And then there is the potential Heisman candidate in Kenny Pickett who really projects well this week at 28.8 fantasy points. With the weather and Jordan Addison uncertainty, I’m more likely to stay away here at his pricing. The Hurricanes are allowing 31.3 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season and Pickett has proven a lot of people wrong at many points this season. As yet to have a game under 21 fantasy points in 2021 so the consistency has been there.
Texas @ Baylor
Point-Spread: Bay -2.5
O/U Total: 61.5
Weather: 66 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Texas:
Bijan Robinson is always in play no matter the pricing. It’s worked more often than not this season, so why stop now? Road matchup at Baylor doesn’t overly scare me, as the Bears are 61st in Rush Play Success Rate and sixth in the Big 12, allowing 134 YPG. Baylor did shut down both BYU and West Virginia in recent weeks, holding both teams to under 100 yards total on the ground. But we have evidence of Breece Hall scoring 47 fantasy points against this defense, and 26 points from Jaylen Warren. Robinson is right there in that category in terms of talent and volume. Quarterback Casey Thompson’s projection is near level with Tyler Van Dyke at a slightly higher pricing and a worse matchup. Baylor is allowing just 18.7 FPPG to quarterbacks this season and just one performance of over 20 fantasy points. Decent implied total here of 29.25 so Texas should be able to score in this one, but I’d save Thompson for GPPs only in game stacks.
Jordan Whittington had surgery on his broken clavicle and won’t be back in the foreseeable future, so we do have a centralized target tree of WR1 Xavier Worthy and Joshua Moore as the primary options. The two combined for 17 of the 25 targets against Oklahoma State, with no other receiving having more than two. The two belonged to Marcus Washington, who started in the slot in place of Whittington, and did have a 58-yard reception against the Cowboys. Kelvontay Dixon was the fourth receiver in the rotation but was on the field for just 13 offensive plays. I wouldn’t risk it this week, especially with him not being min priced, but the staff indicated during the bye that they’ll be looking for ways to get Alabama transfer Keilan Robinson involved more in the offense with the inconsistencies/injuries at receiver. Might see some time in the slot alongside Washington – where we thought he should be all along.
Baylor:
Gerry Bohanon continues to feel underpriced here at $7,200 for a quarterback averaging 23.1 FPPG this season and projected at just under 25 fantasy points this week. I would say we run the risk of Baylor finding traction on the ground against a porous Texas run D like they did two weeks ago against BYU where Bohanon posted his second-lowest output of the season, but the junior QB still attempted 28 passes that Saturday which is well above his season average. Just got unlucky by three rushing touchdowns from starting RB Abram Smith. Texas’ implied total signifies to me that chances are low Baylor can be solely reliant on the run to win this game. Speaking of Smith, it was a career-high for him in Week 7 with 188 yards and three scores on 27 carries, finally seeing some separation between him and backfield mate Trestan Ebner who had just 11 attempts. Up until that point, we were looking at a 55-45 percent split between the two. The projections look to reflect more what we saw in Week 7 vs. the entirety of the season which brings some risk for me here with Smith. I wouldn’t jam him in our lineups with the chance we see a similar game script as we did the first six games, but both RBs are viable against 114th ranked rush defense in the country. Baylor’s offensive line has taken a step back since the first month, but still rank 3rd nationally in Line Yards and 12th in Rush Play Success Rate.
If you play Bohanon, I think you stack him with WR1 Tyquan Thornton and vice versa as the senior wideout dominates the team target share at 30 percent. WR2 R.J. Sneed had his best performance of the season against BYU with 6-72-0 on six targets, but his production has been sporadic for much of the year. One notable trend I do see with the Texas defense is their struggles with smaller slot receivers this year. Marvin Mims, Kaylon Geiger, Myles Price and Brennan Presley all scored 13 fantasy points or more against the Longhorns. Bodes well potentially for Baylor’s slot receiver in Sneed. Tight end Ben Sims seems to be incorporated in the passing offense more in recent weeks with two touchdowns in Week 6 vs. West Virginia and a season-high six targets against BYU. WR3 Drew Estrada gets a bump up from $3,100 to $4k despite a goose egg last time out.
Cincinnati @ Tulane
Point-Spread: Cin -27
O/U Total: 62
Weather: 63 degrees / 0% rain / 13 mph winds
Cincinnati:
Which team in the country is allowing the most FPPG to opposing quarterbacks this season? That would be Tulane at 39.3, having already given up performances of 60+ points, 40+ points twice and five total of over 30+ fantasy points this season. Desmond Ridder is now priced down to just $8,200, nearly $1k less than his backfield mate Jerome Ford, and sure to see one of the highest ownerships of the slate with Cincy’s implied total of 43.25 in what looks to be one of the safer games this season in terms of weather forecast. Ford currently sits with the higher projection of the two players, but the difference is minimal compared to the $900 disparity in salary. We definitely hit the nail on the head this offseason on Ridder’s regression as a runner, but last week’s game against Navy was surprising even to me with just five rushing attempts for the QB1 despite it being a competitive contest. Right at this point in the season last year is where the coaching staff really started to turn Ridder loose on the ground with 12 rushing TDs in the final six games. Maybe we see something similar this year as well? Great matchup here for Ford, obviously, against a Tulane run defense that is 9th out of 11 teams in the AAC and has allowed a league-high 20 rushing TDs.
As is the case each week, Cincinnati receivers are strictly designated for GPP only. Anyone who rostered Josh Whyle last week caught a lucky break as the TE1 caught his first two touchdown passes since the opener. Whyle has consistently been the fourth or fifth option in the passing game this season, and sometimes not even the primary tight end either. Alec Pierce remains the only trustworthy WR on a week-to-week basis, now with at least eight targets in four of the last five games. Michael Young, Tre Tucker, Tyler Scott and Leonard Taylor are all rotational pieces with very limited upside.
Tulane:
Michael Pratt remains in concussion protocol and is questionable for Saturday’s matchup. I couldn’t tell you off hand by memory who the backup is. Oh, it’s a true freshman in Kai Horton? Against the No. 1 ranked pass efficiency defense in the country? No thanks. Pratt being out would also eliminate our interest in any of the receivers here. If Pratt were to play, Tulane does have some talented pass-catchers with Shae Wyatt and Deuce Watts who combined for three touchdowns on 14 targets last week against SMU. Wyatt now has eight targets in each of the last two games. Tight end Tyrick James was quiet against the Mustangs, but remains tied for the team lead with three touchdown receptions and second in targets (31). If game planning against the Cincinnati defense, you would attack the Bearcats via the ground, but this is still a top 50 unit against the run, allowing just 3.32 YPC. Both Cameron Carroll and Tyjae Spears had some success last week against SMU, both rushing for over 80 yards, but the carries were split evenly between the two as its been for the majority of the season. With a negative game-script and a below-average offensive line blocking ahead of them, just think the best use of our resources is to fade Tulane as a whole.
Indiana @ Maryland
Point-Spread: Mary -5
O/U Total: 49.5
Weather: 63 degrees / 27% rain / 8 mph winds
Indiana:
Doesn’t appear as though the Hoosiers will have either Michael Penix Jr. or Jack Tuttle available to them this week, meaning true freshman Donaven McCulley will likely get the nod against the Terps. The former 4-star recruit looked out of his element last weekend against Ohio State, completing just 1-of-6 passes, but has been getting the bulk of the first-team work in practices according to the head coach Tom Allen. McCulley could offer some value potentially with his legs, averaging over six yards a carry with 1,089 rushing yards during his three-year high school career, but would’ve liked to see him in the $5k or less range to even remotely consider rostering him. Too risky a proposition with a true freshman in his first start on the road against a desperate team.
Nothing worked for the Indiana offense against the Buckeyes last week following the Tuttle injury, throwing the entire game plan out of whack. Particularly on the ground where the Hoosiers gained just 66 yards on 27 carries (2.4 YPC), with RB1 Stephen Carr posting a season-low 13 yards on 10 attempts. Still led the team in carries, and dominating the volume share in the Indiana backfield now that both backups have entered the portal. I really like his 18.5-point projection at just $5,500 against a Maryland defense that ranks 13th in the Big Ten, allowing over 154 yards per contest and giving up 23.1 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Only player that would dip into the rushing column that could alter Carr would be McCulley. With a raw true freshman under center most likely, I’ll be out on the pass-catching options, and there are only two worth mentioning in receiver Ty Fryfogle and tight end Peyton Hendershot who account for 45 percent of the target share.
Maryland:
Betting line has grown from 3.5 at the start of the week to 5.5 as of writing this on Thursday evening. That has more to do with the Indiana injuries than the Maryland side as the Terps are who they thought they were with an overrated quarterback and below-average coaching staff. With that said, the pricing on Taulia Tagovailoa is enticing at $6,500, projected at 22.9 fantasy points this week which is higher than some of the previous quarterbacks (TVD, Thompson) in this writeup with a higher salary. Tagovailoa does tend to play better in front of the home crowd, and if you beat this Indiana defense, it’s typically via the pass as they’re 90th in Pass Play Success Rate and 108th in Pass Play PPA. I do think Tagovailoa does get a very slight pass being down two of his top three receivers due to injury, and he doesn’t have a ton to work with beyond Rakim Jarrett, who has also been somewhat of a disappointment as the new WR1. His streak of three-straight games with at least one touchdown came to an end last week at Minnesota, and finished with just four receptions.
Drops have plagued Jarrett in his sophomore season with four in the last four games. With all the focus on Brian Cobbs as the “next man up” last week, it was former Nebraska transfer Marcus Fleming who led the team with 5-62-1 on six targets. If wanting to stack the Maryland passing game (not suggested), Jarrett/Fleming would be the top options as it appears to be a three-way split opposite Jarrett on the outside with Cobbs, Darryl Jones and Carlos Carriere all rotating. The Hoosiers have struggled to defend opposing tight ends, allowing 10.8 FPPG this season, so could be a decent day for Chigoziem Okonkwo. 19 of his 23 targets have come in the last four games. The shine has apparently worn off of Tayon Fleet-Davis who has not hit double-digit fantasy points in any of the last three games, and is now splitting snaps with backup Challen Faamatua. Despite last week’s showing, Indiana has been above-average this season at defending the run, ranking 46th in Rush Play Success Rate. I’ll favor the Indiana RB1 over the Maryland RB1 with near identical pricing.
Michigan @ Michigan State
Point-Spread: Mich -4
O/U Total: 50.5
Weather: 52 degrees / 20% rain / 9 mph winds
Michigan:
Don’t even tempt yourself with Cade McNamara at $5,300, despite the Spartans ranking last in the Big Ten by a wide margin in pass defense. Numbers are inflated by early-season opponents as the Spartans are 65th in Pass Play Success Rate this season, indicating they are far better than the overall numbers. No doubt in this rivalry game with so much focus on the running games that both teams are going to take their shots in the passing game, but I can promise you that you’ll be left disappointed if rostering McNamara in DFS. The Spartans have allowed just five passing plays of 30 yards or more this season so expect a lot of methodical drives from the Wolverines.
Similar situation at receiver where everyone is priced down this week. Cornelius Johnson remains the WR1, leading the Wolverines with 30 targets, but is not a possession receiver that will attract a high volume of targets. His 18.6 aDOT is why he’s averaging 18.4 yards per reception, but we just covered how good MSU is at limiting the big play through the air. Does someone like Mike Sainristil become more attractive to us at $3,400, coming off a season high six targets last week? MSU will give up plenty of underneath junk, allowing 66.7 percent of passes to be completed within 20 yards of the LOS against P5 opponents (per PFF). Daylen Baldwin was emerging as the team’s No. 2 target behind Johnson, notching 13 targets in Week 6 against Nebraska, but his role is minimized now that Roman Wilson is back in the lineup.
We know what to expect at this point from the Michigan running backs. This will be a 55-45 split in favor of Hassan Haskins, but Blake Corum will continue to outproduce him on slightly less carries. I really like Corum here as opposed to Haskins despite the pricing, as the sophomore back is featured often in the passing game, with nine catches on nine targets in the last two weeks alone. We already discussed MSU giving up the underneath routes, and if there is a trick pass play or screen called by the Wolverines, Corum is the likelier option of the two to be on the receiving end
Michigan State:
If wanting to choose one of the two quarterbacks in this matchup, I’ll select Payton Thorne who has the better collection of receivers, and has shown some upside this season with four performances of 26 fantasy points or more. If you take advantage of this Michigan defense, there’s a better chance it happens via the pass vs. the run as the Wolverines are 33rd in Pass Play Success Rate. A very good mark, but the Wolverines rush defense is really rounding into form of late, ranking 14th in Rush Play Success Rate and are the No. 1 rated group per Pro Football Focus. Michigan is allowing just 116 yards per game on the ground and have given up just 19 running plays of 10 yards or more – ninth-best in the country. Overall, the Wolverines are allowing just 10.6 FPPG to opposing RBs this season. I do think that means we fade Kenneth Walker here is the matchup isn’t great and his attainable salary at $6,700 will lead to a higher ownership in GPPs. Walker remains the nation’s leader in rushing yards per game at 142.4 and his 21.7 att/g is eight in the country so you know he’ll get the rock. Jayden Reed and Jalen Nailor continue to dominate the team target share at 55 percent, so it’s not necessary to stack Thorne with them. Don’t think there is one characteristic about either that play would differentiate them from the other as a better play, aside from Nailor being the team leader with 56 targets. We’ve seen both players break the slate at one point this season. WR3 Tre Mosley has seen at least four targets in each of the last four games.
Iowa @ Wisconsin
Point-Spread: Wisc -3
O/U Total: 36
Weather: 52 degrees / 4% rain / 8 mph winds
Iowa:
Wisconsin ranks No. 2 in total defense, 17th in scoring defense, 10th in pass defense and are the No. 1 overall rush defense in the country. The one positive I can say here is that Spencer Petras has a higher projection than Cade McNamara at a lower price-point – if you were tempted to choose either player. Strongly advise against that. Sam LaPorta is relatively-cheap at $3,700 as he leads the team in targets (44) and receptions (28). Tyler Goodson found some success against this Wisconsin defense last year with 106 yards and a TD on 11 carries, but the Iowa offensive line is a shell of what it was a year ago, ranking 128th in Line Yards and 130th in Stuff Rate. Go ahead and ‘X’ Goodson out of the player pool.
Wisconsin:
Only player here that is projected to score double-digit fantasy points this week is true freshman Braelon Allen who has now rushed for 100+ yards in each of the last three games. Chez Mellusi dominated the touches last week in the backfield with 28 attempts compared to just 11 for Allen, but the two fumbles from the freshman had everything to do with the disparity. Against Army in Week 7, despite another fumble from Allen, the carries were dead even between the two runners. Unless we see any indication that the Wisconsin staff will be riding Mellusi with Allen’s fumbling issues, we’ll side with the true freshman here. Graham Mertz hasn’t thrown for more than 115 yards in the last four weeks so we don’t even need to dig into the Wisconsin passing game.
Iowa State @ West Virginia
Point-Spread: ISU -7.5
O/U Total: 48
Weather: 55 degrees / 77% rain / 3 mph winds
Iowa State:
Overall numbers for the West Virginia rush defense are rock solid, allowing just 3.16 yards per carry, in the 40s range of Defensive Rush Play Success Rate and haven’t allowed a single RB to top 20 fantasy points in a game this season. Of late, there have been some leaks, allowing over 4.3 YPC to both Baylor and TCU. Breece Hall projects well at 24 fantasy points, and continues to be one of the nation’s leaders in touches, averaging 22.1 carries per game. Jerome Ford and Bijan Robinson both project higher this week at relatively similar price-points so I think you’ll see lower ownership in GPPs. Teams have had far more success through the air against the Mountaineers, where opposing QBs are averaging 26 FPPG this season and are 81st in Defensive Pass Play Success Rate. He’s not getting any headlines, but Brock Purdy is really having a superb season considering how it started with the benching against Iowa. Completing a career-high 75 percent of his passes and hasn’t thrown an interception in the last three weeks. Implied total doesn’t suggest that this becomes a high-scoring affair, but Purdy remains a cheap option at just $6,400 who is unlikely to bust with how proficient he’s been the last month and a half.
This is the exact same situation from a year ago still with Xavier Hutchinson and Charlie Kolar dominating the target share, with no other pass-catchers being relevant. As good as Hutchinson was last year even, he never had any slate-breaking performances. We now have two games’ worth of evidence that is possible, including last week against a very good Oklahoma State secondary, catching all 12 of his targets for 125 yards and two scores. Kolar does not have said ability to break a slate, but has been Mr. Consistency for the Cyclones with at least four receptions in every game this season. The Big 12 is not known for its surplus of tight ends, but both Ben Sims (Baylor) and Chigoziem Okonkwo (Maryland) topped double-digit fantasy points against the Mountaineers earlier in the year.
West Virginia:
This feels like a complete fade spot of the Mountaineers with a 20.75 implied total going against the best defense in the Big 12. The Cyclones allow just 9.5 FPPG to opposing RBs this season and are 23rd in Rush Play Success Rate. West Virginia’s offensive line isn’t doing a tremendous job blocking – 77th in Line Yards – and are really getting to the second-level of the defense. Leddie Brown is now priced up here at $7,400 coming off his 33.4-point performance against TCU, but is 4.6 YPC against that defense really that impressive? Leddie’s usage is down this season as well, averaging just 17 carries per game. I can’t rationalize playing Jarret Doege either at $5,400, despite completing over 75 percent of his passes the last four games? What has that resulted in? Just two passing touchdowns and a 10.8 FPPG average in that span. The Iowa State secondary can be shaky at times – 71st in Pass Success Rate defensively – but still one of the better groups in the conference. Always run the risk of Garrett Greene replacing Doege too if he’s ineffective. Stay away. We have five receivers this week projected between 6-8 fantasy points for the Mountaineers, which is a reflection on how much Doege spreads the ball around each week. If selecting one, I would strongly lean towards either Winston Wright or Bryce Ford-Wheaton, but it’s a total crapshoot here in a bad matchup.
Georgia @ Florida
Point-Spread: UGA -14
O/U Total: 51
Weather: 71 degrees / 0% rain / 16 mph winds
Georgia:
Georgia may be the best team in the country but are truly my least favorite to cover from a fantasy perspective. Very little consistency as to where the ball is going, and we can’t utilize any run-back candidates on the other side because of how good their defense is. Plus, I hate watching SEC football (sorry, not sorry). We have no idea who is going to start at QB between Stetson Bennett and JT Daniels. Beat writers don’t know and doesn’t sound like the team even knows yet. With the chance both play, and seems like a potentially realistic option, just fade this. We do have some situations developing in the backfield after unfortunate circumstances as Kendall Milton suffered an MCL sprain that will keep him out this weekend. But we remove one piece and just add another as James Cook indicated that Kenny McIntosh will be available this week, just adding to the stable of backs UGA already utilizes. Zamir White has found the end-zone each of the last five games, and his stats are starting to look eerily familiar to last season. Averaging 12 carries a game, finding the end-zone once or twice a week, and not utilized at all as a receiver. Cook is cheap enough at $4,600 that I’d consider him, but very little upside because of his infrequent workload, and is downgraded with McIntosh likely to play.
I’ll pass on UGA receivers here as Jermaine Burton, Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint and Arian Smith will all be available. Mixed in with Ladd McConkey, AD Mitchell and Kearis Jackson means we haven’t a clue which direction the ball will be going. There is no target hog for the Bulldogs. I didn’t start Brock Bowers against Kentucky and he, of course, went for 101 yards and two touchdowns. Entering Marvin Mims category of never being able to predict his breakout. Gets downgraded for me here as well with Darnell Washington back in the lineup, and reportedly looking much healthier after the bye week. It’s possible we get five touchdowns from UGA from five different players and maybe two different QBs. I have zero interest in anyone here.
Florida:
Yes, I know the rule of completely fading opponents of Georgia. 18.5 implied total suggests we do the same here with the Gators. But Anthony Richardson is just staring me right in the face at $5,900. Dan Mullen must start Richardson this week, right? Right?!?! Expectation from those covering the team seem to indicate that both will see time on Saturday, and the best indication about how Mullen feels about the QB position will be who sees the final snap vs. who gets the first. Fading Jones here, but I might sprinkle Richardson in some lineups because of the upside he possesses – even against a defense like this. Don’t forget, Mullen had two weeks to prepare for this one. Out on the Florida running backs. WR1 Jacob Copeland seemed to complain on social media about the lack of targets he’s getting this year. Does that alter his playing time if coaches saw that? Richardson is the only Florida player I’m considering.
Florida State @ Clemson
Point-Spread: Clem -9.5
O/U Total: 47.5
Weather: 59 degrees / 24% rain / 9 mph winds
Florida State:
I’m surprised to see Florida State with a team total of 19 here on the road. Feels high against a Clemson team that still leads the conference in scoring defense, allowing just 14.5 PPG. FSU’s offense is definitely improved with Jordan Travis at the helm, averaging 41 PPG over the last three games, including a masterful performance at North Carolina. So while we should totally discount Travis with his dynamic running ability, it’s a spot I’ll be fading. The Tigers’ defense has generally done well this season against dual-threats like Garrett Shrader and Jordan Yates, limiting both to under 22 fantasy points. Zero interest in the FSU backfield with Travis dipping into the carry distribution as Jashaun Corbin and Treshaun Ward have split reps in competitive contests of late. Clemson is allowing just 12.0 FPPG to opposing RBs this season and third in the ACC in rush defense. Wide receivers aren’t even worth mentioning here with Travis being a below-average passer and it might be the worst group among P5 teams from a pure talent standpoint.
Clemson:
Is Will Shipley about to be the highest-owned player on both FD and DK this weekend? The true freshman returned early from injury last week and wound up leading the team in carries vs. Pitt, finishing with 52 rushing yards. Shipley projects well this week at 17 fantasy points, and we still have Kobe Pace in there (OUT this week due to COVID) so once that is corrected, that projection will jump up higher. Overall numbers this year for the FSU defense aren’t bad when defending the run, allowing just 13.2 FPPG to opposing RB1s and are middle of the pack in the ACC, but they’ve been gashed the last three weeks. Both Syracuse and North Carolina averaged six yards a carry with over 200 rushing yards as a team, and even lowly UMass hit four yards per attempt. With Shipley garnering most of the workload this week – Phil Mafah likely is the RB2 – he’ll easily surpass his value, IMO.
We currently have D.J. Uiagaleilei listed in our projections this week, but I’ve not seen any indication as to how this situation will be handled internally with backup Taisun Phommachanh seeing time against Pitt last weekend. I assume DJU continues to be the starter but with a short leash. Also think the Clemson offensive line will have problems blocking the FSU front that has 19 sacks this season. And we know DJU has not been good with pressure in his face. Play it safe and stay away here. Sounds like Joe Ngata will be back this week and is off the COVID list, so we have four options in the Clemson passing game. Justyn Ross continues to lead the team with 55 targets, including 19 in the last two games. True freshman Beaux Collins saw a career-high 10 targets against Pitt, but is downgraded with the return of Ngata. I expect he’ll still be an integral part of the rotation, but unplayable now. Tight end Davis Allen has 11 targets in the last two games, and is what we’d consider min priced this late in the season at $3,400. Outside of Michael Mayer’s 27-point performance in the opener, FSU has shut down opposing tight ends for the most part. The Seminoles are 41st in Pass Play Success Rate this season which is much higher than I expected prior to researching.
Colorado @ Oregon
Point-Spread: Oreg -24.5
O/U Total: 49
Weather: 55 degrees / 22% rain / 4 mph winds
Colorado:
We don’t have a single Colorado player projected to score more than nine fantasy points. Tells you all that you need to know. Poor Karl Dorrell who is about to get fired after just two seasons.
Oregon:
Usually the bane of my existence in prior years, I find myself loving the Oregon offense these days because our analysis centers on two players, and two players only in Anthony Brown and Travis Dye. Oregon fans remain insistent on seeing backup Ty Thompson at some point, but Brown the Ducks continue to find ways to win behind their senior quarterback who is averaging 21.6 FPPG this season, topping that mark in each of the last four games. I worry a bit about Oregon not needing to throw the ball much this week facing such an incompetent offense on the other side of the field, but we saw Brown put up 24 fantasy points earlier in the season in a blowout of Arizona. Brown only had six carries last week against a tough UCLA run defense, but still managed 85 yards and a TD with his legs, and is averaging 11 rushing attempts per game over the last month. Crazy stat-line for Dye last week with four rushing TDs despite just 36 yards on the ground. He’s still seeing the bulk of the work in the Oregon backfield with just two carries combined between his backups. 16 receptions on 18 targets in the last three games alone makes him an exceptional play each week. I expect better production this week with a positive game script against a Colorado defense that allows 18 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season and are just 71st in Rush Play Success Rate. As per usual, Oregon receivers are a fade.
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma
Point-Spread: Okla -19
O/U Total: 67
Weather: 71 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Texas Tech:
Ah, the unknown factor that can’t be analyzed with any stats of how a team rebounds following the firing of their head coach. Offensive coordinator Sonny Cumbie stays on as the interim HC so don’t expect many changes on offense here is my assumption. Based on some of the reactions from players and media, the team really likes Cumbie and still have plenty to play for at 5-3 overall so I would think this will still be a motivated Texas Tech team. I’m probably staying away from the QB spot here as we could see a change mid-game if Henry Colombi struggles again. Backup Donovan Smith was predicted as the Team MVP by one of the beat writers, so at least someone expects a change to happen if it hasn’t already – I haven’t seen anything official here. The Oklahoma secondary is struggling at the moment, ranking 80th in Pass Play Success Rate and 109th in PPA so if we don’t have exposure to the quarterback, maybe we target Erik Ezukanma or Kaylon Geiger in this spot? Geiger’s projection sits slightly higher than Ezukanma which makes him the preference of the two at his salary, but the production is trending downwards with just 12 targets in the last three weeks. Myles Price led the way last week with four receptions on four targets.
At running back, Sa’Rodorick Thompson saw his lowest snap count in five weeks now that Tahj Brooks is back in the lineup. Still led the team in carries and found the end-zone twice but averaged just 1.8 YPC against a mediocre Kansas State defense. Those factors, combined with a solid Oklahoma run defense that is 28th in Rush Play Success rate minimize my interest in the Tech backfield. There are a few options (Shipley/Carr) in the $5k range that should produce a similar output.
Oklahoma:
Expected better out of Caleb Williams and the entire Oklahoma offense last week against Kansas, but taking a step back, it was still a true freshman in the first road start of his career. Williams managed to redeem himself with his play in the second half, finishing with 27.1 fantasy points and three total touchdowns, and is our highest-projected QB in the slate. Tech has been marginally better at defending the pass than the run in 2021, allowing 24.9 FPPG to opposing QBs and 74th in Pass Play Success Rate, but Williams has shown he can get it done with his legs with 60+ yards in the last three games with a rushing TD in each contest. Tech should be able to score a bit with Oklahoma, forcing Williams to remain in the game for four quarters. Probably going to see lower ownership percentages with both Jadon Haselwood and Marvin Mims this week given their salaries, with Haselwood now at $6,700 after finding the end-zone four times in the last two games. Argument for both players would be their snap counts as the duo was on the field 85 percent of the time last week vs. Kansas, but also have to take into account that neither Michael Woods nor Mario Williams played. No receiver had more than four targets last week.
You’ll have to go cheap at wide receiver if planning on rostering Williams and RB1 Kennedy Brooks this week, but I believe the matchup dictates playing both if you can with the highest implied total of the slate. Rushing volume is heavily in favor of Brooks over Eric Gray in the last four weeks with the former averaging 21 attempts per game in that span. Gray has just 17 carries combined in those four games. Texas Tech played well against Kansas State last week, limiting the Wildcats to just 2.79 YPC, but have allowed 14 rushing TDs over the five weeks and giving up 19.1 FPPG to opposing RB1s. I’m liking the idea of stacking both Williams/Brooks in GPPs as most lineups probably won’t be able to feature both given their salaries.
TCU @ Kansas State
Point-Spread: KSU -3.5
O/U Total: 58.5
Weather: 68 degrees / 0% rain / 8 mph winds
TCU:
Max Duggan’s 2021 season has unfortunately reflected his entire college career – inconsistent. Who knows what to expect week to week here, but here we go again with another favorable matchup as Kansas State is 110th in Pass Play Success Rate, 75th in Pass Play Explosiveness and just 7th in the Big 12 in yards per game allowed through the air. The Wildcats are giving up just 19.1 FPPG to opposing QBs this season with only Spencer Sanders topping 30 fantasy points against them. Projection for Duggan this week is just OK at 21.7. I’ll throw a couple lineups with him in there in GPPs as he can break the slate if he’s on a heater that day, but no way of knowing when/if that happens. We actually got some consistency last week from WR1 Quentin Johnston who topped 100 yards for the second-straight game and led the team with 10 targets. Kansas State’s pass defense will give up a big play here or there as we indicated above, but the $7k salary on DraftKings is a tough pill to swallow here when we’ll want to spend up at running back this week. TCU rotated five different receivers pretty consistently last week outside of Johnston, so we aren’t interested in anyone else at the position.
Here’s where things get really interesting with the Zach Evans drama that occurred this week, with the sophomore running back apparently deleting all TCU-related content from his social media. Indications in the coming days from beat writers stated Evans was at practice as originally scheduled so all appears to be normal? Still a situation we must monitor here because TCU’s backup, Keandre Miller, is very talented in his own right, averaging 7.5 yards per carry this season, including a 185-yard performance against Texas Tech earlier in the year. Kansas State is allowing 20 FPPG this season to opposing RB1s and the defensive unit has really struggled of late stopping the run, allowing nearly five yards a carry in the last three games. Miller becomes a must here should we get indication that Evans is on a snap count or out.
Kansas State:
Massive projection this week for Deuce Vaughn against this porous TCU rush defense that is allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing running backs in the country, right behind Missouri. The Horned Frogs have allowed over five yards a carry in each of the last five games with multiple touchdowns in each contest. Vaughn struggled to get much going on the ground last week in another favorable matchup with Texas Tech, averaging just 3.5 YPC but still found the end-zone twice on the ground, while adding another seven catches on eight targets with a score through the air. 20 touches per game is the bare minimum for Vaughn each week and don’t mind spending up to his salary here. Don’t understand at all why Skylar Thompson is priced up this week at $7,300 after scoring just 15 fantasy points against Texas Tech. Completing over 70 percent of his passes with six touchdowns since returning from injury in the last three games, but is not seeing the volume on the ground like we’ve seen in the past. If Thompson was closer to his $6k salary that we saw last week, I’d have more interest, but I can’t get behind spending that much at just an 18-point projection. TCU is dreadful against the pass this year too, though, ranking 108th in Pass Play Success rate and allowing 28.6 FPPG to opposing QB1s. Malik Knowles is Kansas State’s most talented receiver, but it’s been Phillip Brooks whose been the most consistent, with at least six targets in the last three games with a pair of touchdowns.
Purdue @ Nebraska
Point-Spread: Neb -7.5
O/U Total: 53.5
Weather: 64 degrees / 0% rain / 10 mph winds
Purdue:
Both offenses in this matchup run so hot and cold that I see a wide range of outcomes here. I really like Aidan O’Connell here at $5,500 with a 22.3-point projection, but the concern here is that Jack Plummer got work towards the end of the game last week in the loss to Wisconsin. Game was out of hand so maybe the Purdue offense was looking for a spark? Good news is that HC Jeff Brohm confirmed after the game that O’Connell will remain the QB1 moving forward so I think we should feel somewhat comfortable rostering him this week if we so choose. Since being instituted as the starter, O’Connell is completing over 70 percent of his passes, topping 300 yards twice so a good chance we hit that scoring bonus. Don’t think there is anything that should scare us off here with regards to the Nebraska pass defense, ranked sixth in the Big Ten and 83rd in Pass Play Success Rate. With David Bell and tight end Payne Durham both healthy, we’re seeing what we got at the start of the year with those two dominating the target share, accounting for 20 of the 35 targets last week against Wisconsin. That was the fifth time in six games where Bell topped double-digit targets, and we’ve seen the slate-breaking ability this year with a pair of 40+ point fantasy outputs. We are projected to get three touchdowns from the Boilermakers this week with an implied total of 22.75, and if we do, it’s a strong likelihood those scores are coming via the pass.
Purdue is 123rd in run play percentage (39.6) this season so not a lot of interest in the Boilermakers’ backfield. There’s also a wrinkle this week as Brohm stated Zander Horvath will be a game-time decision. If Horvath somehow gets the start and is mostly healthy, that becomes interesting as he’s min priced. King Doerue’s projection at 13.1 feels high for a running back that’s averaged less than three yards per carry the last two games and minimally used in the passing game. Purdue has one of the worst run blocking offensive lines in the country and Nebraska is 38th in Rush Play Success Rate so this isn’t a group we need to focus on much.
Nebraska:
Purdue has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs in the country this season. Avoid Adrian Martinez then, right? Not so fast. Lets look at the long list of studs that the Boilermakers have faced. Jack Coan, Tanner Morgan, Steven Krajewski, Chance Nolan, etc. No wonder Purdue is third in Pass Play Success Rate nationally this season – they haven’t played anyone worth a damn. 26-point projection at $8,200 is very reasonable for Martinez who is still averaging 28.2 FPPG this season despite his worst performance of the year against Minnesota. Nebraska got two weeks to prepare for this matchup. Purdue is in the top 25 nationally in Run Play Success Rate defensively, but are fresh off allowing 290 yards on the ground to Wisconsin last week. RB1 Rahmir Johnson is full-go this week after suffering an injury against Minnesota last time out, and has been a revelation in the Nebraska backfield, averaging 25 FPPG, and getting it done both as a rusher and pass-catcher. Purdue is right up there in terms of Rush Play Success Rate and Rush Play Explosiveness allowed, sitting in the top 30 nationally, but this is an above average Nebraska offensive line from a run blocking standpoint, ranking 30th in Line Yards. More than comfortable trotting out Johnson in a lineup. Don’t see any potential slate-breakers with the Nebraska receivers as the distribution is spread evenly amongst 3-4 options. Tight end Austin Allen has found pay-dirt in the last two games, topping 100 receiving yards against the Gophers.
Duke @ Wake Forest
Point-Spread: WF -16.5
O/U Total: 71.5
Weather: 59 degrees / 21% rain / 7 mph winds
Duke:
I think I would take the under team total here for Duke as I’m not seeing how they could score 27 points against a solid Wake Forest defense. Overall numbers are boosted by a very weak non-conference schedule as the Blue Devils are averaging just 10.3 PPG in ACC play and are 12th in the conference now in scoring. Maybe Duke devised a game plan to attack this Wake defense during their bye week. QB Gunnar Holmberg is a perfect example of a player trending downwards, despite completing over 70 percent of his passes on the season. We got a goose-egg against a very suspect Virginia defense his last time out, throwing for just 134 yards and two interceptions. That’s twice in the last three games he’s failed to top 200 passing yards, both of which coming on the road. Where’s this game being played at? With the high game total, we could take a shot with some game stacks in GPP, but I’d rather play things safe and go with RB1 Mataeo Durant at $7,700. Duke is likely to try and play keep-away against this red-hot Wake offense, meaning 20+ touches for Durant should be a near-lock. The Deacs are 121st in Rush Play Success Rate and 120th in Rush Play Explosiveness so the opportunities should be there for Durant to have a big week. Jake Bobo and Jalon Calhoun are the two receivers of interest here, accounting for 48 percent of the team target share. Bobo’s production has trended downward of late but still seeing plenty of passes directed his way with at least seven targets in every game this season. Calhoun doesn’t offer a ton of upside, but has at least five catches in six of the seven games played, and two 100-yard receiving performances in the last three weeks.
Wake Forest:
Fire up everyone in the Wake Forest passing game. The Blue Devils are allowing the second-most fantasy points in the country to opposing QBs so Sam Hartman is an obvious play. We’re even getting some rushing upside from Hartman this year which is a pleasant surprise, with a touchdown in each of the last three games. I’ve stated I’m not a DFS expert per se but my question to one would be if you can run Hartman naked without pairing him with a receiver because we are seeing both A.T. Perry and Jaquarri Roberson at the top of WR salaries. Both obviously very productive and projected highly this week, but this isn’t a situation like Purdue, for example, where we know David Bell is guaranteed double-digit targets each game. WR3 Taylor Morin had just one target last week, but had been an integral part of the passing attack each game leading up to the Army matchup. A stat that shouldn’t surprise anyone – Opposing WR1s are averaging 21.6 FPPG against Duke this season. WR2s are averaging 13.6.
Coaching staff remains intent on starter Christian Beal-Smith as the RB1, seeing the majority of the snaps again vs. Army while rushing for 71 yards and a TD on eight attempts. Justice Ellison continues to be productive as the backup with four TDs in the last five games, averaging over five yards a pop. Because of the committee approach Wake Forest utilizes, I think we avoid this situation, but both backs should find success against the 89th ranked run defense.