Washington vs. Stanford
Point-Spread: UW -26.5
O/U Total: 60.5
Implied Score: UW 43.5 – Stan 17
Weather: 68 degrees / 0% rain / 10 mph winds
Washington:
Top Play(s) – WR Rome Odunze ($8,700) and / or Ja’Lynn Polk ($6,800) No surprise that this duo has dominated the target share in the games which Jalen McMillan has missed. 43 combined targets the last two weeks. We need to have one in our lineups is my opinion, and no qualms about which one you choose. Stacking would be an option if we knew McMillan was out or less than 100% – none of which we know for sure. We want Washington exposure for obvious reasons with an implied total of six touchdowns.
Fade – Backup RBs. Since Week 5, backup Washington running backs have combined for seven rushing attempts. Dillon Johnson has 44 in that same span. We’re not seeing the same split we had a year ago with Cameron Davis and Wayne Taulapapa. This is Johnson’s backfield.
Bargain Bin – TE Jack Westover ($4,000) Shocker – Stanford can’t defend opposing tight ends either. 9.1 FPPG allowed with three different Pac-12 tight ends already having scored more than 10 fantasy points against the Cardinal this season.
Pivot Play – RB Dillon Johnson ($6,800) There isn’t a facet of the Stanford defense that is good at anything. Atrocious against the pass, and almost as bad defending the run, ranking 126th in rush D success rate. Interesting then that the Cardinal are only allowing 14.6 FPPG to RB1s this season and holding a few running backs to under their seasonal averages. Probably because teams are having an aerial assault on this secondary and not even bothering with the run. Just six yards on eight carries against Arizona State for Johnson last week – obviously bad – but still garnering over 50% of the rush volume share. No other Washington RB is challenging Johnson for carries.
Best of the Rest – QB Michael Penix Jr. ($10,700) This is very similar to the main slate and Caleb Williams. Penix is our second highest projected quarterback of the entire weekend in college fantasy, facing a Stanford defense that is allowing the most fantasy points in the country to quarterbacks. But there is a 1.5-point difference between Penix Jr. and Drake Maye yet are worlds apart with their salaries. Fiscally, probably doesn’t make a ton of sense to have Penix Jr. unless you’re stacking the Washington passing offense. WR Giles Jackson ($5,300) is probably too expensive for a fourth string WR, though if we catch wind that McMillan is out, Jackson could be a late pivot. 11 targets in the last two games.
Injury Notes – WR Jalen McMillan ($6,900) McMillan will suit up and play on Saturday night after missing the last three games. How much is anyone’s guess. Would imagine he’ll have lower ownership because most have the same hesitation that I have about the unknown. General rule for me is always wait a game to start a player coming back from injury, but that strategy doesn’t always apply to DFS, looking to gain an edge.
Stanford:
Top Play(s) – WR Eli Ayomanor ($5,900) I thought Ayomanor’s performance against Colorado would be a one-off and that his numbers would taper off vs. a more formidable defense in UCLA. That was only partially correct. Ayomanor didn’t find the end-zone, but posted 8-86-0 on 12 targets, giving him 30 over the last two games. Talented player from what I’ve watched and seems the move back to Ashton Daniels at QB has really boosted his productivity. Very much in play this week as a run-back option with Washington in a game stack or solo with a 17-point projection at just $5.9k.
Fade – RBs. Stanford’s running game is nonexistent. RB E.J. Smith ($4,300) has been one of the biggest busts in college fantasy football this season. Not that we thought he’d be a 1,000-yard running back, but this is a system previously at Sacramento State that threw the ball 76 times in a season to its RB1. We know Smith is an adept pass-catcher out of the backfield, but just 11 targets in seven games played. Avoid.
Bargain Bin – TE Sam Roush ($3,900) Roush, a talented 6-foot-5 sophomore, played all 68 offensive snaps last week in the absence of Ben Yurosek, catching four passes on five targets. Like we mentioned above with E.J. Smith, this is an offensive system under HC Troy Taylor that utilized the tight end position heavily at Sacramento State the last three seasons.
Pivot Play – WR Tiger Bachmeier ($4,200) All of a sudden the Stanford passing game has come alive in the last two games under Ashton Daniels. Not sure where the light switch came on, but the receiver production has been a pleasant surprise. Namely Ayomanor, but the 4-star freshman got into the action last week with 8-75-1 on 11 targets. Game script will be the same again this week as double-digit underdogs, it’s a matter of how much success Daniels has throwing the football. On that note…
Best of the Rest – QB Ashton Daniels ($6,800) We’re not starting Daniels, but can he play well enough to support the talented collection of Stanford pass-catchers. 60% completion rate for Daniels the last two weeks, and you have to love the passing volume with 45 attempts in each game. Just two quarterbacks have scored over 15 fantasy points against the Huskies this season, so this is a good pass defense, but Washington is also 74th in pass D success rate. Not a dominant group.
Injury Notes – TE Ben Yurosek ($4,500) Only update I’ve seen via Twitter from October 17th is that this will be a week-to-week situation with Yurosek who did not play a single snap against UCLA last week. Easy fade as Yurosek is in the E.J. Smith category of CFF Busts in 2023.
Tennessee vs. Kentucky
Point-Spread: Tenn -3.5
O/U Total: 51.5
Implied Score: Tenn 27.5 – UK 24
Weather: 67 degrees / 28% rain / 5 mph winds
Tennessee:
Top Play(s) – WR Squirrel White ($5,800) The White – Joe Milton connection we saw in the bowl game last season against Clemson is finally taking shape. Two 100-yard performances in the last three games for White, with last week being a definite hit on our part noting that slot receivers (particularly from Tennessee) have fared well against Alabama nickel backs. The four highest scoring wideouts vs. Kentucky this season have actually all been outside receivers, but White has been far and away the most consistent of the Vols’ options in 2023.
Fade – RB Dylan Sampson ($5,200) We keep picking on Sampson in these writeups, but he’s simply priced too highly for a RB3. Last two games in competitive matchups he’s combined to score just 10 fantasy points.
Bargain Bin – WR Chas Nimrod ($3,200) Honestly, I hate these types of plays that potentially show up in optimal lineups, yet rarely produce. Nimrod is only being listed here because he’s on the field a lot. That’s it. 49 of 81 snaps played last week against Alabama but failed to receive a single target. I’d probably lean slightly towards WR Kaleb Webb ($3,300) who played 17 fewer offensive snaps than Nimrod but was targeted four times against the Tide. Or better yet, roster neither player.
Pivot Play – QB Joe Milton ($7,500) That first half against Alabama was as good as we’ve seen Milton look since that bowl game last year. Confident and accurate, while taking it to the Tide defense with his legs as well, running over defenders. The Vols will need that version of Milton again vs. this Kentucky defense which has excelled defending the run. Against the pass, not so much, ranking 80th in EPA per pass play and 125th in pass D success rate.
Best of the Rest – RB Jaylen Wright ($5,400) I don’t mind mixing Wright in because of his sheer talent, but this isn’t a great matchup. Three-way backfield for Tennessee facing the 23rd ranked run defense in the country that allows just 12.4 FPPG to RB1s this season. Wright has found the end-zone just once in seven games. WR Ramel Keyton ($4,900) might be one of the more infuriating players in college football as he works himself open several times during games with his infinite number of offensive snaps, but continually has stone hands, dropping passes left and right. Low-owned option that will play 90% of the game. Same goes for WR Dont’e Thornton ($3,900) who might be one of the most physically gifted receivers in the country, yet just ran five routes against the Tide and was essentially benched for dropping a pass in the red-zone. One of the Tennessee beat writers predicted that TE McCallan Castles ($3,200) would find the end-zone for the second straight week.
Injury Notes – n/a
Kentucky:
Top Play(s) – RB Ray Davis ($6,600) Silly me going to the primary Kentucky sports website looking for football news when it is late October and exhibition games are happening in college basketball. We know Davis is Kentucky’s top fantasy option but how is the matchup? The Vols are only allowing 14.9 FPPG to running backs this season and are 13th in rush D success rate. Not great, but what else is Kentucky going to do offensively, throw the football? 15 or more carries in every SEC game this season for Davis so we know the volume will be there.
Fade – QB Devin Leary ($6,200) About as easy as it gets from choosing a fade option. Leary hasn’t cleared 128 passing yards in each of the last three games with his one lone performance over 200 yards against SEC competition coming against one of the worst secondaries in the conference in Vanderbilt. Tennessee is MUCH better than Vanderbilt, ranking 36th in pass D success rate.
Bargain Bin – WR Dane Key ($4,800) Lowest will go on a Kentucky player is Key at $4.8k as he’s first on the team in routes run, second in targets (35) and third in receptions (17). Those that have read these DFS articles this season know the drill by now with Kentucky receivers – unpredictable and rarely hit value.
Pivot Play – WR Barion Brown ($5,200) Team leader in targets (47) and receptions (23), with also the highest aDOT at 16.5. All good until you look at drops and the sophomore leads the team with five and a 48.9% catch rate. I don’t mind mixing in a Kentucky receiver here as the player prop lines have not moved as dramatically as one would think given the recent production from the Kentucky passing game. Obviously, do not stack Wildcats’ receivers together in a lineup. Perhaps the bye week helped cure some of the Kentucky passing game woes.
Best of the Rest – WR Tayvion Robinson ($5,000) Kentucky’s starting slot receiver has gone under 25 receiving yards in each of the last four games and ran a season-low 15 routes against Missouri last week. Seems like he might’ve been in the doghouse after dropping two passes the week prior against Georgia. Kentucky’s opponent this week, Tennessee, is fifth nationally in pass D success rate and seventh overall in yards allowed through the air.
Injury Notes – n/a
Air Force vs. Colorado State
Point-Spread: AF -13.5
O/U Total: 46.5
Implied Score: AF 30 – CSU 16.5
Weather: 25 degrees / 90% rain / 9 mph winds
Air Force:
Short n’ sweet because we’re typing this up on a Friday evening. RB Emmanuel Michel ($6,100) should be your highest owned player on the slate facing a below average Colorado State run defense that is 86th in rush D success rate and allowing 20.6 FPPG to RB1s. Michel didn’t pan out last week with just 69 yards on the ground, but the volume is of most importance for this matchup. 20+ carries in four of the last five games. QB Zac Larrier ($6,500) is a potential punt option at the Superflex as he’s finding his stride throwing the ball of late with four TDs in the last three games, and double-digit rushing attempts in two of the last three. Colorado State allows the seventh most fantasy points in the country to quarterbacks. RB John Lee Eldridge ($4,400) is hit or miss with his production, averaging nearly 10 yards per carry but multiple games of under 30 yards rushing. Major risk, but not the worst GPP strategy to have multiple Air Force players in your lineup given they run the football more than anyone in the country.
Colorado State:
Top Play(s) – WR Tory Horton ($6,000) Of course, DraftKings made one of the best receivers in the country super cheap in a bad matchup so that you must sit and think about best path forward. Horton is second in the country in targets, averaging 12.5 per game, but faces an Air Force secondary that has allowed the fewest fantasy points in all of college football to opposing receivers. Now, that happens when your schedule features the likes of Navy, San Diego State and Wyoming. Air Force also allowed three receivers on Utah State to hit double-digit fantasy points, so it is possible to find success against the Falcons. One more area of concern – take note of the weather. 25 degrees and snowy. Not optimal for an Air Raid offense.
Fade – RB Vann Schield ($4,100) Schield played well with the injuries mounting at running back for Colorado State with touchdowns in three of the last four games and did run for 90 yards last week against UNLV. But the return of Avery Morrow to the lineup diminishes his value, and we don’t like Colorado State’s matchup in the trenches here. 131st in EPA per rush play and 128th in rush success rate offensively for the Rams, facing the No. 1 run defense in the Mountain West.
Bargain Bin – WR Louis Brown IV ($4,900) Cheapest we’ll go with Colorado State players is Brown who is now third on the team in targets (45), receptions (30) and second in routes run. 22 combined targets in the last three games.
Pivot Play – TE Dallin Holker ($5,500) From a FPPG basis, Holker is the best fantasy tight end in the country in 2023. Brock Bowers has two less fantasy points scored in one fewer game, and likely would have held the distinction as TE1, but Holker has been outstanding in 2023. No less than four receptions in any game this season with touchdowns in five of his seven games played. Outstanding production from a tight end.
Best of the Rest – QB Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi ($6,400) Air Force is allowing just 14.4 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks this season – 11th fewest among teams playing this weekend. That said, we hinted above that some of these numbers are inflated when it comes to the Air Force pass defense. And the advanced metrics paint a more accurate picture as the Falcons are 30th in EPA per pass play defensively and 79th in pass D success rate. Still good for a Mountain West team, but not dominant. The biggest deterrent is really the weather for me. WR Justus Ross-Simmons ($5,300) is another “bust” amongst the CFF community this season but had his second-best performance of the season last week with 76 yards and a TD on five targets. Just expected more out of the emerging sophomore.
Injury Notes – n/a
Colorado vs. UCLA
Point-Spread: UCLA -15.5
O/U Total: 60.5
Implied Score: UCLA 38 – Col 22.5
Weather: 72 degrees / 0% rain / 9 mph winds
Colorado:
Top Play(s) – WR Xavier Weaver ($7,000) or WR Travis Hunter ($6,700) 29 combined targets last time out against Stanford with both players catching a pair of touchdowns with over 200 yards receiving between the two of them. I have no strong argument of which to prioritize over the other. But this is not a dominant UCLA pass defense as we saw last week against Stanford. Seven different receivers have scored 16 or more fantasy points against the Bruins this season.
Fade – RB Anthony Hankerson ($5,000) Worst rushing offense in the Pac-12 facing the best rush defense in the Pac-12. Fairly straight-forward. Hankerson has had less than 35 rushing yards in five of seven games played this season.
Bargain Bin – RB Alton McCaskill ($3,200) This is a baseless prediction as I can’t find confirmation to support this claim, but it feels like it’s time to get Alton McCaskill up and running coming out of the bye week. Six carries in Week 7 vs. Stanford, the most he’s had all season. Extra week of rest. Stars aligning?
Pivot Play – WR Javon Antonio ($3,700) I thought Antonio was dead in the water following the USC game with the emergence of 4-star freshman Omarion Miller. Wrong. 81 yards and a touchdown the following week against Arizona State. Versus Stanford in Week 7, Antonio found the end-zone once again, playing 81 of the 86 offensive snaps even with Travis Hunter back in the lineup.
Best of the Rest – WR Jimmy Horn Jr. ($6,600) I wonder if the plan moving forward is to keep Travis Hunter in the slot, as he ran 88% of his routes inside against Stanford. Didn’t have a major impact on Horn’s output as his 60 receiving yards on six targets are right around his seasonal averages. But at $6.6k, I believe Horn is a distant fourth among the Colorado WRs to prioritize. QB Shedeur Sanders ($9,400) won’t see a ton of ownership on Saturday with Drake Maye being a cheaper option in a better matchup. UCLA is allowing the fourth fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks among teams playing this weekend.
Injury Notes – n/a
UCLA:
Top Play(s) – RB Carson Steele ($6,300) The Buffs are only allowing 12 FPPG to RB1s this season, but they don’t grade out well against the run, ranking 91st in success rate and 94th in EPA per rush play. Steele has taken over the UCLA backfield with 20 or more carries in each of the last three games.
Fade – RB TJ Harden ($5,000) Harden still gets 8-12 touches per game but has been relegated to the clear RB2 in recent weeks behind Steele. At $5k, the only way Harden hits value here is either a 30-point blowout in which they rest Carson Steele, or the Ball State transfer got injured at some point during the game.
Bargain Bin – WR Kam Brown ($3,800) Uptick in usage from Brown in recent weeks with 11 of his 18 targets coming in the last three games. Third on the team in routes run.
Pivot Play – QB Ethan Garbers ($8,100) Chip Kelly marches to his own beat and does not care about any outside noise. That was clear as day last week with it being announced an hour ahead of kickoff that Garbers would be getting the starting nod over 5-star freshman Dante Moore. It came out after the game that it was not performance-related, as Moore was dealing with an injury which led to Garbers getting the nod against Stanford. While Garbers did play-mistake free football, he only threw for 240 yards against what is statistically one of the worst pass defenses in all of college football. Same scenario this week with Garbers facing Colorado, but there is a better than 0% chance that Kelly could pull the plug and go back to Moore should there be any struggles on Saturday. To add another layer, Kent State transfer Collin Schlee is finally healthy this season and could potentially play on Saturday as well. Could also be a risk worth taking as Colorado allows the second most fantasy points to quarterbacks in all of college football.
Best of the Rest – WR Logan Loya ($6,500) Why in the world is Loya $900 more than WR J. Michael Sturdivant ($5,600)? Loya is the team’s clear WR2, ranked second on the Bruins in every receiving category, but has not had more than 80 yards receiving in a game once this season. He needs heavy volume to reach value with an 11.5 YPC average and aDOT of 9.9 yards. Six targets a game is not heavy volume. Go with Sturdivant if choosing a UCLA receiver. Not surprisingly, Colorado allows the second most fantasy points in the country to wide receivers.
Injury Notes – n/a
Vanderbilt vs. Ole Miss
Point-Spread: Miss -24.5
O/U Total: 63.5
Implied Score: Miss 44 – Vandy 19.5
Weather: 79 degrees / 19% rain / 6 mph winds
Vanderbilt:
Top Play(s) – WR Will Sheppard ($5,500) Sheppard leads the Dores with 25% target share and 8 of the 19 receiving touchdowns. Last year, Sheppard’s production took a nosedive once Vanderbilt exited the non-conference portion of the schedule. Numbers are definitely down since entering SEC play this season as well, but Sheppard is still averaging 65 yards per game the last four weeks. Five receivers have scored 16 or more fantasy points against Ole Miss this season.
Fade – RBs. Worst rushing offense in the SEC and 129th nationally, averaging just 83 yards per game.
Bargain Bin – WR London Humphries ($4,300) The true freshman appears to have a bright future ahead now with four touchdowns in eight games, including a 49-yard score last time out against Georgia. Humphries was playing heavy snaps in Week’s 3-4 prior to the injury and seems like the Vandy coaching staff ramped up the process against Georgia, playing 50% of the game. Add in a week of rest coming off the bye and I think we see Humphries playing time extend even further.
Pivot Play – QB Ken Seals ($5,900) Seals will get the nod again on Saturday over what appears to be a healthy AJ Swann who was the team’s opening day starter. Seals is a non-runner so he’ll have to accumulate those fantasy points with his arm, but is he an option as the superflex punt QB? Just two quarterbacks have scored more than 17 fantasy points against Ole Miss this season, both of which were running QBs in Haynes King and Jayden Daniels. That said, the secondary for Ole Miss isn’t great, ranking 120th in pass D success rate and 84th in EPA per pass play. Vandy had two weeks to prepare for this matchup.
Best of the Rest – WR Jayden McGowan ($4,800) After a hot start to the season with 70 receiving yards in each of the first four games, McGowan is experiencing the Will Sheppard decline that we saw a year ago in SEC play. Less than 10 receiving yards in three of the last four games. Outside receivers have found the most success against Ole Miss this season, of which McGowan is not, playing 68% of his snaps in the slot.
Injury Notes – n/a
Ole Miss:
Top Play(s) – RB Quinshon Judkins ($6,900) Touchdowns in all but one game for Judkins this year who now has hit 100+ rushing yards in two of the last three games. A volume uptick as well with 18 or more carries in each of the last three weeks. Three SEC running backs have scored 20 or more fantasy points against the Dores.
Fade – WR Jordan Watkins ($6,200) Sounds as though Watkins will again play with a cast on his hand this week like he did against Auburn last Saturday. Just nine offensive snaps vs. the Tigers and did not record a single target.
Bargain Bin – TE Caden Prieskorn ($3,800) These are bold predictions put out there by the Ole Miss beat writer each week, but still like reading these things that come from a person who covers the team on a daily basis. But one of those seven bold predictions this week was two touchdowns from tight end Caden Prieskorn. I think he said the same thing a week ago, and Prieskorn was limited to just two receptions. Season-high 63 yards last week for the former Memphis transfer who played every single offensive snap against the Tigers.
Pivot Play – RB Ulysses Bentley ($4,400) 50 or more rushing yards for Bentley in four of the last five games, and 30 carries in each of the last two weeks. Assuming this becomes a blowout, double-digit rushing attempts is the expectation here.
Best of the Rest – QB Jaxson Dart ($9,800) Tough to fit Dart in our lineups with his inflated pricing, but his performance last year against Vanderbilt sticks out in my head, throwing for 448 yards and three touchdowns in the blowout victory. Vandy is allowing 21.1 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks this season and are the worst pass defense in the SEC. Vanderbilt has also allowed the fourth most fantasy points in the country to wide receivers, so mixing in one of WR Zakhari Franklin ($5,400), Dayton Wade ($5,700) and Tre Harris ($7,400) would be a wise proposition, especially with a banged up Jordan Watkins.
Injury Notes – n/a
Ohio State vs. Wisconsin
Point-Spread: OSU -14.5
O/U Total: 45.5
Implied Score: OSU 30 – Wisc 15.5
Weather: 41 degrees / 11% rain / 7 mph winds
Ohio State:
Top Play(s) – WR Marvin Harrison Jr. ($8,900) We’ve referenced this a time or two on these DFS writeups pertaining to Ohio State. Three Buckeye beat writers give certain over/under predictions for individual prop bets each week. All three went over on 107.5 receiving yards for MHJ. Emeka Egbuka potentially sitting again on Saturday night would make this even more of a possibility. Not to mention MHJ is squarely in the Heisman conversation right now, which always bodes well as teams will look to boost the resume.
Fade – WR Julian Fleming ($5,100) Same story, different week. Fleming caught one pass on five targets last week for nine yards and a crucial special teams error. He ain’t it.
Bargain Bin – WR Carnell Tate ($3,800) This is assuming Emeka Egbuka is limited or out on Saturday. Just 21 receiving yards against Penn State, but was targeted five times in the first half, running the fourth most routes on the team behind MHJ, Stover and Fleming.
Pivot Play – RB TreVeyon Henderson ($6,200) Henderson will be back on Saturday and likely starts after missing the last three games. Wisconsin is allowing just 15.2 FPPG to RB1s this season, but those same running backs are averaging 6.2 fantasy points above their seasonal average when facing the Badgers. Henderson should be well-rested.
Best of the Rest – TE Cade Stover ($4,900) 50 or more receiving yards in all but one game this season where Stover had zero receptions in a game where he was not needed vs. Youngstown State. The Badgers have not allowed a tight end to accumulate more than 20 receiving yards against them this season, but to be fair, the only team Wisconsin has faced that utilizes the position is Iowa. Just two quarterbacks have scored more than 20 fantasy points against the Badgers so I’m probably not looking at QB Kyle McCord ($7,100) here as Wisconsin does grade out well against the pass.
Injury Notes – WR Emeka Egbuka ($6,400) No injury tag for Egbuka as it was reported Friday the junior receiver did travel with the team to Madison. At least one Ohio State beat writer is still not convinced Egbuka will play, despite being dressed in full uniform last week against Penn State. Plenty of WR options on this slate to where we don’t need to risk this.
Wisconsin:
Top Play(s) – RB Braelon Allen ($7,200) I believe the volume will be there for Allen as he’s Wisconsin’s best path to success offensively against this stout Buckeye front. But I’ll be underweight on exposure here because of how good Ohio State has been against the run, allowing just 6.8 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season and 12th in rush D success rate.
Fade – QB Braedyn Locke ($6,000) When a QB is a non-runner and his player prop was listed at just 150.5 yards, you know its an easy fade. The Buckeyes are allowing the third fewest fantasy points in the country this season to quarterbacks.
Bargain Bin – WR Skyler Bell ($3,400) 14 targets in the last two games for Bell who essentially shares the slot position with Will Pauling, running 99.3 percent of his routes inside.
Pivot Play – WR Will Pauling ($4,700) Double-digit targets in each of the last three games for the Cincinnati transfer. Would not go overboard on exposure here, but game script works in Pauling’s favor here, and is preferred on DraftKings because of the scoring settings of full-point PPR. Another fellow slot receiver in Malachi Corley scored the most fantasy points of any receiver the Buckeyes have faced this season.
Best of the Rest – n/a. We’re not interested in anyone outside of Allen, Pauling, and Bell.
Injury Notes – n/a
North Carolina vs. Georgia Tech
Point-Spread: UNC -11.5
O/U Total: 63.5
Implied Score: UNC 37.5 – GT 26
Weather: 70 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
North Carolina:
Top Play(s) – QB Drake Maye ($9,300) Best QB option on the slate with a high game total and a relatively tight spread. At one point in the season, folks thought Drake Maye was no longer considered an elite fantasy option at the position. Oops. 28 or more fantasy points in each of the last five games, boosted by the return of his No. 1 wide receiver. Georgia Tech allows the 10th most fantasy points to quarterbacks among teams playing this weekend.
Fade – RB British Brooks ($4,200) Always thought that Omarion Hampton was the far superior player, but interesting that Brooks is not getting the run he did earlier in the year because he is a favorite of this coaching staff. Just 14 carries in the last three games compared to 58 for Hampton.
Bargain Bin – TE Bryson Nesbit ($3,700) Three touchdowns in the last five weeks for Nesbit who’s had a resurgence of sorts since being in the doghouse with the coaching staff during fall camp. Just one tight end has scored more than six fantasy points against the Jackets this season.
Pivot Play – UNC Triple Stack. Projections indicate it is a viable option to triple-stack the UNC trio of Maye, Omarion Hampton and Tez Walker together with each player projected at over 20 fantasy points. More of a GPP option than cash for obvious reasons. Hampton might be my favorite running back on the slate from a pricing standpoint, facing the worst rush defense in the ACC. He’s fully taken over the UNC backfield over British Brooks, with back-to-back 100-yard performances. HC Mack Brown blamed himself for the loss to UVA last week, not riding the hot hand in Hampton during the second half collapse. Brown vowed that would never happen again. In my head, that means we’re getting a lot of Omarion Hampton carries on Saturday night. No explanation needed for why Tez Walker is an elite WR option.
Best of the Rest – WR Nate McCollum ($6,300) Revenge game storyline for McCollum facing his former team, and his usage increases with Kobe Paysour out of the lineup and not sharing reps in the slot. That said, FOUR drops last week against UVA. Does the coaching staff trust him this week to correct the mistakes? 17 targets in the last two games so the volume is there. WR J.J. Jones ($4,900) leads the team by a wide margin in routes run this season with a 16.7 YPC average. Season-high eight targets last week.
Injury Notes – WR Kobe Paysour ($5,300) Weird that Paysour’s injury tag only pops up with you click on the player. His foot injury won’t keep him out the remainder of the season, but Paysour will not play on Saturday.
Georgia Tech:
Top Play(s) – QB Haynes King ($8,400) Never in a million years before the season would I have predicted that Haynes King would rank 7th among all quarterbacks in fantasy points scored on a per game basis. Just once has King failed to hit 20 fantasy points in a game this season. I also wouldn’t have thought I’d say that the UNC pass defense is actually good either – allowing just 14 FPPG to quarterbacks in 2023 and 33rd in pass D success rate. Just two quarterbacks have scored more than 20 fantasy points against the Heels this season. I like King as an option, but not a must-have. Probably best suited in a game-stack lineup.
Fade – RB Trevion Cooley ($4,700) One big whiff from me in College Fantasy from last year as the former 4-star recruit simply isn’t any good. Under three yards a carry in each of the last four games and lost his starting job to a converted receiver in RB Jamal Haynes ($4,900). As for Haynes, the running game for GT has struggled of late but the UNC rush defense is normally a cure for any ailing rushing woes. 18.3 FPPG allowed to opposing RBs, and Haynes is also fifth on the team in targets (18).
Bargain Bin – WR Christian Leary ($3,100) Super cheap for a player that has scored a touchdown twice in the last three games, coming off a season-high nine targets against Boston College last week. I do believe Leary’s value is diminished as both Eric Singleton and Chase Lane are expected back in the lineup this weekend. But the game script should result in 30+ pass attempts for GT and we know Leary is talented as a former 4-star Alabama transfer.
Pivot Play – WR Malik Rutherford ($4,600) Team leader with 28 receptions on 44 targets but needs volume with an average depth of target at just 8.1 yards. UNC has struggled BIG TIME in defending slot receivers, though, like Rutherford, giving up a combined 60 fantasy points to Xavier Restrepo and Malik Washington.
Best of the Rest – WR Eric Singleton Jr. ($4,100) The true freshman is expected back tonight after missing last week’s contest due to illness. Singleton has been GT’s best receiver this season, finding the end-zone in all but one game with a 17.8 YPC average and 17.7 aDOT. Way too cheap for this talented a player in a game where Georgia Tech is going to have to score.
Injury Notes – n/a
