Florida State vs. Wake Forest
Point-Spread: FSU -20.5
O/U Total: 51.5
Implied Score: FSU 35.5 – WF 15.5
Weather: 76 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
Florida State:
Top Play(s) – WR Keon Coleman ($7,000) See injury portion below as to why Coleman is our top play for the Seminoles this weekend. There will be even more emphasis on getting Coleman the football should Johnny Wilson sit on Saturday, which does sound more precautionary than anything with FSU being a heavy favorite. WR1s are averaging 21.6 FPPG against WF this season.
Fade – RB Trey Benson ($6,800) As a member of the Trey Benson fan club, this is difficult to do so pray for me in these trying times. There’s a surplus of good RB options on the slate, and Benson simply hasn’t lived up to the hype outside of his 200-yard performance against Virginia Tech. I still maintain that for FSU to potentially win the title this season, they MUST get Benson and this running game on track. Not a full fade here but lower your exposure. Too many mouths to feed right now with Lawrance Toafili getting consistent work, and both Jordan Travis and Jaheim Bell getting touches around the goal-line.
Bargain Bin – TE Jaheim Bell ($4,200) If Wilson sits, Bell is the de facto WR2 as the team’s second pass-catching option behind Coleman. Heavy usage since coming back from injury with 12 receptions on 15 targets in the last two weeks.
Pivot Play – WR Kentron Poitier ($3,200) Poitier ran the fifth most routes among FSU players in the win over Duke last week and was second to Coleman among Seminole receivers. He would start in place of Johnny Wilson should he sit.
Best of the Rest – QB Jordan Travis ($9,200) Debating as to which quarterback I prefer between Travis and/or Dillon Gabriel as my top spend-up option. Travis makes the most sense given the higher projection at lower cost, but potentially without one of his top options at receiver too. Wake Forest should really pose no challenge defensively as they’re a middle of the road pass defense, allowing 20 FPPG to opposing QBs and 60th in EPA per pass play.
Injury Notes – WR Johnny Wilson ($6,200) Have not found the exact quote from coaches or beat writers, but the indications I’ve seen are that Wilson is one of three Florida State receivers that could be out on Saturday, along with Destyn Hill ($3,800) and Hykeem Williams ($3,700). Wilson obviously being the most important of the group as the second-leading receiver.
Wake Forest:
Top Play(s) – RB Justice Ellison ($4,800) Expect Wake Forest to lean into the run game with their talented duo of Ellison and RB Demond Claiborne ($4,800) with the passing game in a state of flux. For as good a team as Florida State has been this season, the run defense is the concern on that side of the ball, ranked 89th in EPA per play and allowing 17 FPPG to RB1s. Ellison had a monster performance last year against the Seminoles with 114 yards and a TD.
Fade – QB Santino Marucci ($5,500) We gave HC Dave Clawson so much praise this offseason, believing that his system was plug and play, and that whoever would replace Sam Hartman at QB would keep the train moving. Wrong. We’re out on the entire Wake Forest passing game at this point.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Likely a full-team fade.
Pivot Play – WR Jahmal Banks ($6,300) Downgrades for all WF receivers if Marucci starts on Saturday, which looks to be the case. Banks has at least 50 yards receiving in all but two games this season, leading the team with 56 targets.
Best of the Rest – WR KeShawn Williams ($4,400) If selecting a Wake Forest receiver out of desperation, we’re going cheap with Williams who was the lone wideout to have a good connection with Marucci last week, converting on all six of his targets. His aDOTs have drop significantly over the last month, though, averaging under 5 yards per target.
Injury Notes – QB Mitch Griffis ($6,100) Griffis did return to practice this week, but one of the moderators at the Wake Forest 247Sports site maintained the opinion that Griffis would not play this week. Probably best not to diminish his confidence even further going against this vaunted Florida State pass rush.
Houston vs. Kansas State
Point-Spread: K-St -17.5
O/U Total: 59.5
Implied Score: K-St 38.5 – UH 21
Weather: 38 degrees / 38% rain / 10 mph winds
Houston:
Top Play(s) – QB Donovan Smith ($7,900) It’s not always pretty, but Smith continues to rack up the fantasy points, scoring 27 or more in each of the last three games. And last week was a similar scenario as a two-touchdown underdog facing a better defense in Texas. 40 or more passing attempts in three of the last four games as Houston is really struggling to run the football with any consistency.
Fade – RB Parker Jenkins ($5,000) Jenkins remains the team’s leading rusher but might’ve hit the freshman wall, now with fewer than 30 rushing yards in each of the last two games. To be fair to Jenkins, he’s only received 15 attempts in that span, but this isn’t the matchup to try and push through that wall. Kansas State ranks 16th in rush D success rate and 14th in EPA per rush play defensively. They’ve allowed 20 or more fantasy points to three Big 12 running backs so far, so they’re not a dominant front, but can’t trust Jenkins’ usage right now, particularly as a double-digit underdog.
Bargain Bin – WR Dalton Carnes ($3,500) We’ve seen an uptick in usage from the sophomore slot receiver over the last few weeks, nabbing a season-high 5-68-0 on six targets against Texas. Again, passing volume is resulting for more fantasy success from all of the passing game components.
Pivot Play – WR Joseph Manjack IV ($5,700) Matthew Golden and Sam Brown get the headlines, but Manjack is the most trustworthy receiver on the Houston roster, and he’s displayed that with a 73% catch rate and 50 or more receiving yards in all but one game this season. WR groups average around 43 fantasy points when facing the Wildcats’ secondary, 26th most among teams playing this weekend.
Best of the Rest – WR Matthew Golden ($6,500) or Sam Brown ($6,300) Would probably limit your lineups to just one Houston receiver as the targets are spread fairly evenly between Golden, Brown and Manjack. Brown leads the team in targets (59) and routes run, while Golden has a team-high six touchdowns. Tough to distinguish between the three who the best option is as their usage rates are identical, and Kansas State has allowed big fantasy performances to all shapes and sizes of receivers.
Injury Notes – n/a
Kansas State:
Top Play(s) – RB Treshaun Ward ($5,800) Very slight edge to Ward here was K-State’s top RB option as he’s garnered more carries and been on the field more in each of the last two games. When healthy, Ward has been as dynamic as anticipated, averaging over five yards a carry in all but one game this season. And might’ve remained the starter throughout the season had injuries not popped up. Kansas State, on paper, should have no problem running the football on Saturday facing a Houston defense that is allowing the 13th most fantasy points to opposing RBs.
Fade – QBs. Unfortunately, this situation is unplayable at this point with both Will Howard and Avery Johnson getting extended playing time, likely for the foreseeable future. Potential wet conditions for Saturday give the Kansas State beat writer the impression that it will be majority Howard, but this could easily be a series-by-series situation. If Howard struggles, clearly Kansas State won’t be hesitant to pull the trigger.
Bargain Bin – n/a.
Pivot Play – RB DJ Giddens ($6,500) While Ward is preferred for salary costs, this remains a 55-45 split backfield with Giddens seeing double-digit touches every week. His usage in the passing game is particularly intriguing with a pair of games in mid-October with eight targets in each. Also had 75 receiving yards and a score against TCU last weekend. Will have far less ownership than Ward on Saturday and doesn’t have the injury concerns.
Best of the Rest – WR Phillip Brooks ($6,000) Just two Kansas State players were targeted more than twice last week, one of which being Brooks who leads the team in every receiving category but touchdowns (Sinnott). Six receivers this season have scored 15 or more fantasy points in their matchup with Houston.
Injury Notes – TE Ben Sinnott ($5,200) OC Collin Klien says he expects Sinnott to play on Saturday after being banged up in the TCU matchup. Just one tight end has scored more than 7 fantasy points against Houston this season, and I’ll normally just fade any tight ends on the Main Slate above $5k that aren’t named Brock Bowers.
Oklahoma vs. Kansas
Point-Spread: OU -9.5
O/U Total: 65.5
Implied Score: OU 37.5 – KU 28
Weather: 40 degrees / 32% rain / 10 mph winds
Oklahoma:
Top Play(s) – QB Dillon Gabriel ($9,400) My favorite “spend up” option at the quarterback position this week. The Jayhawks are better at defending the pass than the run, but not by much, ranking 124th in pass D success rate and giving up 23 FPPG to quarterbacks. The list of QBs that have scored 20 fantasy points or more on KU this season are Luke Altmyer, Brendon Lewis, Kedon Slovis and Alan Bowman. Imagine what the Heisman contender can do to this secondary.
Fade – RB Tawee Walker ($5,100) Walker did not suit up last week after what was described as an “in-house suspension.” Thinking he might be out of the dog house potentially, Walker is listed as RB4 on this week’s depth chart, sitting behind a player on Jovantae Barnes that hasn’t played since September.
Bargain Bin – RB Gavin Sawchuk ($4,400) The OU backfield has been as unpredictable as any situation in college fantasy football this season. But we need to uncover how the carries will be distributed Saturday as Kansas has a bottom third rush defense in the country, allowing 22.3 FPPG to RB1s and are 121st in rush D success rate. I’m hopeful this week’s depth chart is accurate because for the first time all year, Gavin Sawchuk now sits in the top spot. Does that mean 20 carries? No, he was the starter last week and only got 10 touches. But you’re willing to risk Sawchuk here given the matchup/pricing.
Pivot Play – WR Jalil Farooq ($6,500) Folks were not happy with Farooq last week, managing just three receptions on five targets for minimal yardage against UCF. Still lead the team in routes run on Saturday so it isn’t a matter of not being on the field. Four different wide receivers have scored 20 fantasy points or more on the KU secondary this season. I’d imagine Farooq will have next to nothing in terms of ownership on Saturday.
Best of the Rest – WR Nic Anderson ($5,800) 1-for-1 replacement with Anderson filling in for the injured Andrel Anthony as he lead the team with 100+ yards on nine targets last weekend. WR Drake Stoops ($6,200) was also targeted nine times, converting on seven, but simply doesn’t offer the big-play ability that Anderson possesses, averaging just 8.6 YPC with an aDOT of just 6.0 against UCF. I would definitely look to pair at least one WR with Gabriel, but two might be stretching things. Trio of Farooq, Anderson and Stoops did combine for 23 of the 36 team targets and rarely came off the field.
Injury Notes – n/a
Kansas:
Top Play(s) – RB Devin Neal ($6,700) Jayhawk basketball has taken over Kansas coverage, so information is more difficult to come by regarding the football team, even in a major matchup like this on Saturday. I’m slightly surprised by our projections for KU this week no player scoring more than 20 fantasy points, despite the Vegas implied total of around four touchdowns. Because of our projections, I have little interest in KU players this week outside of a game stack in hopes this matchup becomes a shootout. And there is the potential to with a 66.5 game total. Neal gets the slight nod as Kansas’ top selection as the team’s best offensive player, but don’t feel great about it as Oklahoma is allowing just 11 FPPG to RB1s. This has also become a 60-40 backfield split with RB Daniel Hishaw Jr. ($5,400) so 20 touches for Neal is unlikely.
Fade – WR Trevor Wilson ($3,900) Two touchdowns in the last three games for Wilson, but his playing time is far too sporadic to warrant consideration. Averages just 6.1 routes run per game and has played just 16% of Kansas’ offensive snaps this season.
Bargain Bin – TE Mason Fairchild ($4,500) Second on the team in targets (26), receptions (18) routes run and first among Kansas skill position players in snaps played this season. Oklahoma did allow 16.7 FPPG to Texas tight end Gunnar Helm in the Red River Rivalry, but that is the only TE to score more than eight fantasy points against the Sooners in 2023.
Pivot Play – WR Lawrence Arnold ($4,800) Team leader in targets (29), receptions (25) and routes run, with game script working in Arnold’s favor as Kansas is a double-digit underdog and will need to throw the football. For as good as the Sooners’ secondary has played this season, they’re allowing 17.9 FPPG to opposing WR1s and allowing nine fantasy points over the receiver’s seasonal average.
Best of the Rest – QB Jason Bean ($6,700) Bean was a GPP winning quarterback last time out, throwing for 410 yards and five touchdowns in the narrow loss to Oklahoma State. As we hinted above, Bean is likely an option for game stacks only this week as the Sooners rank 19th in pass D success rate, 41st in EPA per pass play and just 14.2 FPPG to quarterbacks.
Injury Notes – QB Jalon Daniels ($7,000) Daniels was deemed doubtful on Thursday, and I wouldn’t be shocked if we’ve seen the last of the QB1 in a Jayhawk uniform.
West Virginia vs. Central Florida
Point-Spread: UCF -7
O/U Total: 58.5
Implied Score: UCF 33 – WV 25.5
Weather: 74 degrees / 0% rain / 13 mph winds
West Virginia:
Top Play(s) – QB Garrett Greene ($8,100) Disappointing to see West Virginia losing the last two games in disappointing fashion after such a good start to the year. That said, the offense is doing its part, specifically Greene who now has 103 fantasy points combined over the last three games. Don’t see that stopping on Saturday against the 12th ranked scoring defense in the B12 in UCF.
Fade – RB Jaylen Anderson ($4,100) Been a merry-go-round of sorts at the RB2 spot for the Mountaineers behind CJ Donaldson. Anderson doesn’t have an injury tag but did not see a single snap against Oklahoma State last week, and we saw Justin Johnson go off for 72 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries.
Bargain Bin – RB Justin Johnson ($3,900) I think the West Virginia coaching staff is ready to distribute the carries a bit more in the backfield instead of utilizing solely CJ Donaldson as the primary volume eater. And what better matchup to give WVU running backs a boat load of carries against a UCF defense that is putrid against the run, allowing the third most fantasy points to running backs in college football. I don’t mind Johnson as the pivot to Donaldson on Saturday if you’re willing to risk it.
Pivot Play – WR Devin Carter ($5,100) We mentioned last week that West Virginia has moved the 6-foot-3 Carter inside to the slot in the last two games and has proved to be a brilliant move as the former NC State transfer now has over 170 receiving yards on 17 targets in that span.
Best of the Rest – RB CJ Donaldson ($6,100) Is Donaldson just not that good? Under four yards a carry in each of the last four games, and this is behind one of the most experienced offensive lines in the country mind you. Just a 14.7% breakaway rush rate per Pro Football Focus (Justin Johnson’s is 62.7%). The matchup dictates Donaldson being a must start against this UCF front, but his declining numbers are worrisome.
Injury Notes – n/a
UCF:
Top Play(s) – RJ Harvey ($6,200) We know Harvey is a lock for 15 touches per game, and that increased to 25 last week with a quarterback in JRP that was less than 100 percent with his legs. So if the workload is guaranteed, it all comes down to the matchup for Harvey because his price is very reasonable. West Virginia hadn’t allowed a running back to score more than 17 fantasy points in a game until last week’s explosion by Ollie Gordon II for 53 fantasy points. The Mountaineers are adequate against the run, ranking 45th in rush D success rate and 55th in EPA per run play.
Fade – WR Xavier Townsend ($5,100) Whereas Kobe Hudson or Javon Baker could win you a GPP, I don’t see that level of upside from Townsend who is too expensive for my taste. Third on the team in targets (33), receptions (20) and routes run, but averaging just 9.5 yards per catch with a 7.3 aDOT. You need heavy volume with those numbers and Townsend averages just under five targets a game.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Centralized production for UCF this season among the QB1, RB1 and top three receivers. Would not consider anyone sub $5k for the Knights.
Pivot Play – WR Kobe Hudson ($5,600) Yes, Hudson has trended downward the last three games with just 33 yards on six targets. This coming after three-straight 100-yard receiving performances in the first month of the season. The former Auburn transfer is still out there, leading the team in routes run this season so his playing time has not dipped at all. I simply believe this speaks to the unpredictability and volatility of the UCF receivers, and I also don’t believe there is a single data point out there to help us determine which Knights’ receiver will go off in a certain week. Yes, Hudson is trending down and would be a huge risk that could sink a lineup, but also has GPP winning capabilities.
Best of the Rest – QB John Rhys Plumlee ($7,200) Painfully obvious that Gus Malzahn was feeding us lies that Plumlee would have no limitations running the football despite having a major wrap on his leg and that being the first game back from injury. Not surprisingly, a season-low for Plumlee with -4 rushing yards on nine attempts, though still managed 23.9 fantasy points scored in a near upset of Oklahoma. WR Javon Baker ($5,900) now leads the team in target, receptions, and yards after his 134-yard explosion last week against Oklahoma, though 86 of those yards came on just one play. Still maintain that it’s purely a guessing game as to which UCF receiver is the flavor of the day.
Injury Notes – n/a
South Carolina vs. Texas A&M
Point-Spread: A&M -15.5
O/U Total: 52.5
Implied Score: A&M 34 – SC 18.5
Weather: 79 degrees / 22% rain / 10 mph winds
South Carolina:
Top Play(s) – RB Mario Anderson ($4,700) This is close to a full-team fade for me as the wheels have fallen off for the Gamecocks, now losers of their last three games with injuries mounting and facing a rested A&M team coming off a bye. Anderson gets the ever so slight nod here as he’s been arguably SC’s best player here the last few weeks, averaging over six yards a carry and over 16 FPPG. With that said, A&M is dominant against the run, allowing just 8.8 FPPG to opposing RB1s and are 2nd in rush D success rate.
Fade – QB Spencer Rattler ($7,300) Injuries abound at wide receiver for the Gamecocks make this an easy fade for a non-running quarterback. Even if the entire WR corps for SC was intact, we’d still fade Rattler against an A&M secondary that is 14th in pass D success rate and top 10 in fewest fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
Bargain Bin – WR O’Mega Blake ($3,800) If folks are daring enough to choose a South Carolina receiver for Saturday, I think they’ll look to the recruiting pedigree of 5-star freshman WR Nyck Harbor ($3,900) who saw his most extended action of the season last week against Missouri. I can’t dismiss that selection, but Blake has been a constant in the starting rotation for South Carolina recently and did lead the Gamecocks with eight targets last week. South Carolina will have to throw to win against A&M.
Pivot Play – TE Trey Knox ($4,000) Is there a defensive category that the Aggies aren’t elite in? A&M is allowing the fifth fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends among the teams playing this week. Knox has arguably South Carolina’s most consistent target, though, in the last month with at least five targets in the last five games. Eight targets in three of those five weeks.
Best of the Rest – n/a. This is realistically a full-team fade.
Injury Notes – WR Xavier Legette ($6,600) South Carolina’s best offensive player in 2023 was knocked out of the game against Missouri and has been deemed questionable as of Thursday night, per head coach Shane Beamer. Said it is not a long-term injury. WR Ahmarean Brown ($5,000) is confirmed out on Saturday, hence the slight interest in both Blake and Harbor.
Texas A&M:
Top Play(s) – RB Le’Veon Moss ($5,200) First time this season that A&M’s top play is not Evan Stewart if memory serves. Whereas A&M ranks very highly in almost every defensive category, it is the exact opposite for South Carolina. The Gamecocks are allowing 17.8 FPPG to opposing RB1s and are 103rd in rush D success rate. Moss has fully taken over the A&M backfield with 15 or more carries in each of the last four games.
Fade – RB Amari Daniels ($4,600) With Moss taking over, and A&M looking to get increased reps for 5-star Reuben Owens, it appears as though Daniels has fallen all the way to third (and maybe lower) on the depth chart. No injury tag on DK, yet Daniels did not see a single snap in the loss to Tennessee two weeks ago. Could be wrong, but this feels like a transfer candidate waiting to happen.
Bargain Bin – TE Jake Johnson ($3,700) South Carolina is allowing the fifth most fantasy points in the country to opposing tight ends this season.
Pivot Play – WR Evan Stewart ($5,800) Curious to see how Stewart looks after the bye week as I’m assuming his declining production is tied to the injury he’s been dealing with. Still playing a heavy amount of snaps, but nowhere near the volume he was getting the first two weeks with 27 targets in the first two games combined. Or maybe I’m looking at this incorrectly and his declining production is tied to Max Johnson starting now at QB? Either way, Stewart is too talented to fade against a defense allowing 24.1 FPPG to opposing WR1s.
Best of the Rest – QB Max Johnson ($6,500) Johnson will pop in optimal lineup combinations because of the matchup and his pricing. I can’t totally disagree with it as South Carolina’s secondary is the worst in the SEC, ranked 119th in success rate and 123rd in EPA per play. When Graham Mertz scores 30 fantasy points against you, you’ve got issues. Quiet day for WR Ainias Smith ($5,300) against Tennessee, but he’s been Johnson’s favorite target in the passing game with 70 or more receiving yards in four of the last five. No coincidence that hot streak starter when Johnson took over as QB1. WR Noah Thomas ($4,600) is a very talented player that was hampered by injury between Week’s 3-6. 75 receiving yards against Tennessee as he saw his most playing time since Week 2.
Injury Notes – n/a
Indiana vs. Penn State
Point-Spread: PSU -31.5
O/U Total: 45.5
Implied Score: PSU 38.5 – IU 7
Weather: 69 degrees / 12% rain / 10 mph winds
Indiana:
Can’t totally dismiss RB Jaylin Lucas ($4,200) for the simple fact that he’s a running back averaging 5.2 targets per game and cheap, but realistically, we’re fading a team that is projected to score less than a touchdown on Saturday. Not to mention against an extremely motivated Penn State defense coming off last week’s loss to the Buckeyes. Lucas is a last resort for the final spot in your lineup, preferably on DK in PPR format. Against the two best rush defenses faced this season – Louisville and Michigan – Lucas combined for 154 yards receiving and two touchdowns on 18 targets.
Penn State:
Top Play(s) – RB Nick Singleton ($6,300) Strong projection for Singleton with a decided advantage over RB Kayton Allen ($5,900). While we know this can be a 50-50 split backfield, Singleton leads all Penn State running backs in carries, red zone touches and targets. This was not the case a year ago. The Hoosiers are allowing just 16.5 FPPG to RB1s this season, but grade out very poorly against the run, ranking 102nd in rush D success rate and 93rd in EPA per run play. Penn State will have the unquestionable advantage in the trenches.
Fade – WR Dante Cephas ($4,300) The broadcast did comment on Cephas during the Ohio State game, mentioning they’re hoping the Kent State transfer makes an impact over the second half of the season. But that hasn’t occurred to this point, and didn’t against the Buckeyes, playing just 17% of the offensive snaps. Penn State undoubtedly needs to find a complement to KeAndre Lambert-Smith but seem comfortable offensively in 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 WRs, 2 TE).
Bargain Bin – Tight Ends. See the last sentence above. Penn State is in 12 personnel over 60% of the time on offense so you’re going to see both Theo Johnson and Tyler Warren on the field for a considerable amount. Johnson was the preferred target in Penn State’s last blowout with 66 yards and two scores. Both Colston Loveland and Cade Stover found success against the Hoosiers with a combined 32 fantasy points scored.
Pivot Play – WR Harrison Wallace ($5,600) 69 of 70 offensive snaps played last week for Wallace who is the team’s clear WR2 behind KeAndre Lambert-Smith. Has the second most receptions by a Penn State wide receiver despite not having played in two games this season. Speaks to the lack of playmaking and depth Penn State has at the position.
Best of the Rest – QB Drew Allar ($8,000) I expect a bounce-back performance after last week’s outing, facing an Indiana secondary that is allowing the fourth-most fantasy points in the country to quarterbacks. If you have the perfect lineup at every other spot with $8k remaining at the super-flex, I can rationalize playing Allar in this spot. WR KeAndre Lambert-Smith ($6,200) accounts for 25% of the team’s target share, and that increases to 41% if just including Penn State receivers. He’s the only trustworthy Nittany Lion at the position.
Injury Notes – n/a
Duke vs. Louisville
Point-Spread: UL -4.5
O/U Total: 46.5
Implied Score: UL 25.5 – Duke 21
Weather: 67 degrees / 30% rain / 6 mph winds
Duke:
Top Play(s) – RB Jaquez Moore ($4,900) We’ll take the cheaper of the two Duke running backs as Moore looked like the fresher RB of the two last week, rushing for 100+ on 16 carries against Florida State. Some speculation that RB Jordan Waters ($6,400) is battling through and injury, but also could be wear and tear through the long season as he’s only been a part-time player to this point in his career. Under four yards a carry in three of the last four games. Would go light on any Duke RB exposure, despite this needing to be a run-heavy offense with Riley Leonard limited. Louisville ranks No. 1 in EPA per rush play defensively.
Fade – WR Sahmir Hagans ($4,000) Limited interest as it is without Leonard in the lineup possibly, but Hagans has struggled with holding onto the football this season. Did see a season-high in targets last week, but he’s a distant third option in the passing game.
Bargain Bin – RB Jaylen Coleman ($3,000) Coleman saw the field for just the second time all season because of injury and rushed for 30 yards on four carries. He’s an experienced player who was an integral part of the RB rotation a year ago with 478 yards and four scores. There have been worse punt plays suggested.
Pivot Play – WR Jalon Calhoun ($5,500) or WR Jordan Moore ($5,200) 55% target share between the Duke duo so if the Blue Devils do decide to throw on Saturday, it’ll likely be in one of two directions. Production has understandably taken a major hit in the last two weeks with the QB injuries.
Best of the Rest – n/a
Injury Notes – QB Riley Leonard ($7,100) Game-time decision as to who will start between Leonard and backup QB Henry Belin IV ($7,000) after Leonard re-injured himself against Florida State. Leonard was very limited on the ground vs. the Seminoles and would imagine it’s a similar case for this Saturday should he start.
Louisville:
Top Play(s) – WR Jamari Thrash ($6,100) Feels like Thrash could be a forgotten man on the slate and that would be a mistake. Disappointing loss for Louisville in Week 7, but that resulted in 18 targets for Thrash. 70 or more receiving yards in all but one game this season with 28% of the team’s target share. There might not be a safer WR option on the slate with GPP winning upside. The caveat is that this is a borderline elite Duke secondary, allowing the fifth fewest fantasy points to WRs in the country among teams playing this weekend.
Fade – WR Ahmari Huggins-Bruce ($3,900) Last time I suggested fading AHB, he went for 110 and two scores so maybe fade my fade. The Pitt game doesn’t inspire any confidence that Huggins-Bruce should even be worthy of consideration, though, running a route on just 20 of 48 drop-backs with two targets and zero interceptions. It’s clear he’s been surpassed by WR Kevin Coleman ($3,600) as the team’s top slot receiver. Coleman nearly doubled Huggins-Bruce’ routes run and was targeted 11 times.
Bargain Bin – See above on Kevin Coleman.
Pivot Play – RB Isaac Guerendo ($4,800) This is IF Jordan does not play on Saturday but see note below in the injury section. The former Wisconsin transfer got the bulk of carries in relief of Jordan against Pitt in Week 7, averaging just 2.9 yards per carry but found the end-zone twice in the loss. The Blue Devils are a middle of the road ACC run defense, ranked 44th in EPA per play, 88th in rush D success rate and allowing 15 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Should Jordan be available, this play goes in the dumpster.
Best of the Rest – QB Jack Plummer ($7,500) This is simply not the matchup to play Plummer against this Duke secondary. Quarterbacks average just 14.3 FPPG against the Blue Devils and almost five fantasy points less than their seasonal average. WR Chris Bell ($3,300) ran the second most routes among Louisville receivers behind Thrash against Pitt – the most he’s played all season long – while also finding the end-zone for the second time this season. That was essentially the case, though, with all Louisville receivers as the Cardinals were trailing the entire contest.
Injury Notes – RB Jawhar Jordan ($7,000) Officially questionable for Saturday and likely a game-time decision, but Jordan does have an Instagram post image stating, “I’m healed.” Based on that, Jordan should be a go.
Pittsburgh vs. Notre Dame
Point-Spread: ND -20.5
O/U Total: 44.5
Implied Score: ND 32.5 – Pitt 12
Weather: 52 degrees / 9% rain / 8 mph winds
Pitt:
Top Play(s) – WR Bub Means ($4,800) Night and day with the connection between Means and new starting quarterback Christian Veilleux, vs. what we saw with previous starter Phil Jurkovec. Means had one of the most amazing stat-lines I’d ever seen since I started covering CFF, targeted 11 times with zero receptions back in Week 2. Means now has three TDs in the last three games, including a season-high 16 targets last week.
Fade – RB Rodney Hammond ($5,300) I’d love to be a fly on the wall listening to Pitt coaches discussing Rodney Hammond and why he’s fallen out of favor with this staff. What a dramatic fall too. Remember when Hammond was on the verge of overtaking Israel Abanikanda last season for the RB1 job in the opening week? Just three rushing attempts this past week against Wake Forest. Hitting the transfer portal in 3, 2, 1…
Bargain Bin – RB C’Bo Flemister ($4,400) Two arguments in favor of Flemister for Saturday. (1) Revenge game storyline as a former Notre Dame transfer. (2) Pat Narduzzi will ride a hot hand if he has one, and Flemister was that guy against WF with 105 rushing yards on 23 carries. The argument against Flemister – Notre Dame is a top 20 rush defense that has allowed just one running back to score more than 17 fantasy points this season.
Pivot Play – WR Konata Mumpfield ($5,000) Top-heavy target share for the Panthers with the Means/Mumpfield combination combining for 46% of the team’s targets. Numbers aren’t as splashy as Means, but Mumpfield is now averaging eight targets per over the last month. I don’t mind mixing in a Pitt wide receiver in our lineups Saturday, but this is an above average Notre Dame secondary, allowing just 28.3 combined FPPG to wide receivers – 11th best mark among teams playing this weekend.
Best of the Rest – QB Christian Veilleux ($5,200) There is no doubt the Pitt passing offense has been an upgrade with the former Penn State transfer. And they will be throwing the ball around as a double-digit underdog. But this isn’t the matchup, facing a Notre Dame defense allowing the third fourth fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks in all of college football.
Injury Notes – n/a
Notre Dame:
Top Play(s) – RB Audric Estime ($7,800) High-level numbers look good for the Pitt run defense but don’t be deceived. RB1s average 21.3 FPPG against this Pitt defense, scoring 8.6 more fantasy points than their seasonal average when facing the Panthers. Just 126 carries through eight games for Estime, so he should be ready for the stretch run after the bye week.
Fade – WR Tobias Merriweather ($3,500) Ya’ll know the drill at this point. Merriweather saw a season-low 16 offensive snaps against USC and wasn’t targeted a single time. Writing on the wall here.
Bargain Bin – WR Jaden Greathouse ($3,400) Notre Dame still has plenty to play for, including a New Year’s Day bowl game, but they’re out of the National Championship picture so it’s time to build for 2024. Aka…time to get an extended look at the freshmen. Greathouse in particular is of some interest as he played 65% of the offensive snaps against USC in Week 7 – the most of any wide receiver on the team. It’s time that ND turns the page to the youngsters at receiver.
Pivot Play – QB Sam Hartman ($8,200) 21-point projection for Hartman who has one of the higher floors of the slate at quarterback, but limited upside. Pitt ranks inside the top 30 nationally in most pass defense categories, allowing under 18 FPPG to quarterbacks. Drake Maye and Kyron Drones did find success against the Panthers, combining for 58 fantasy points. Might want to look for a Sam Hartman rush TD prop, because both Maye and Drones had two rushing scores each against Pitt. You could argue that’s the reasoning for the inflated fantasy success as well.
Best of the Rest – TE Mitchell Evans ($5,400) Probably too expensive to roster at $5.4k for a tight end, but Evans is the only trustworthy pass-catcher Notre Dame has. Team lead in targets (34) and receptions (24), facing a Pitt defense that is allowing 7.6 FPPG to tight ends.
Injury Notes – n/a
BYU vs. Texas
Point-Spread: UT -20.5
O/U Total: 50.5
Implied Score: UT 35.5 – BYU 15
Weather: 82 degrees / 23% rain / 13 mph winds
BYU:
Top Play(s) – WR Darius Lassiter ($4,900) This will likely be a full-team fade, but we’ll roll with the former Eastern Michigan transfer as he’s been the team’s most consistent receiver the last month with three touchdowns in the last four games. That distinction had belonged to WR Chase Roberts ($5,100) previously, but he was seen on the sidelines to start the game last week against Texas Tech. Played a season-low 22 snaps last week, though I’m not sure if that was performance or health-related.
Fade – RB LJ Martin ($5,600) The freshman running back is undoubtedly BYU’s future at the position, but concerning for his rest of the way outlook that UNLV transfer RB Aidan Robbins ($4,000) is healthy now and notched 16 rushing attempts in last week’s win over Texas Tech. This is not the matchup to own a RB in a potential timeshare as the Longhorns are 8th in rush D success rate this season.
Bargain Bin – WR Kody Epps ($4,000) The coaching staff continues to ramp up Epps’ playing time since coming back from injury, with 10 more offensive snaps played in each of the last two weeks than the game prior. Production hasn’t really been there with just 40 yards receiving combined but saw a season-high six targets last week. Epps was the team’s best WR in 2022.
Pivot Play – n/a. We’re going out on the limb listing any BYU players here with an implied team total of just two projected touchdowns. Sounds like the game plan for BYU here is to muck up the game and make it a defensive battle.
Best of the Rest – QB Kedon Slovis ($6,600) We’ll stick to our rule of never rostering Kedon Slovis on a main slate as he’s scored 20 or more fantasy points just twice this season. Dual-threats like Donovan Smith and Dillon Gabriel have given Texas the most fits this season defensively, and Slovis certainly isn’t that.
Injury Notes – WR Keanu Hill ($4,100) Hill is dealing with a nagging injury that OC Aaron Roderick says, “isn’t anything serious” and that they hope to get him back soon. Would not consider even if in uniform on Saturday.
Texas:
Top Play(s) – RB Jonathon Brooks ($7,500) Brooks was already Texas’ top play when Quinn Ewers in the lineup. Texas with a backup QB will lean on their workhorse back heavily I would imagine. Highest projection of any running back on the slate. BYU does have an above average run defense, allowing just 13.5 FPPG to RB1s and are 35th in rush D success rate. Still, a major advantage for Texas in the trenches. We’ve also seen a major uptick in usage from Brooks in the passing game with 14 of his 21 targets coming in the last two games.
Fade – WR Jordan Whittington ($5,000) What I’ll be very curious to see here with Maalik Murphy starting is how the young QB reacts under pressure and off-script. Meaning, will he take the easy check downs to Brooks and/or Whittington, or force the deep passes to Adonai Mitchell and Xavier Worthy. Arm strength is not in question for Murphy as we saw in the team’s spring game. That said, Whittington is still an easy fade for me as the only good fantasy performance he’s had all season is when Ja’Tavion Sanders was banged up. A non-factor outside of the Oklahoma game.
Bargain Bin – RB Cedric Baxter ($4,200) This is the first time in a while that I’ve seen a Cedric Baxter prop line appear. Should we anticipate more reliance on the run game now with Quinn Ewers out of the lineup? Like Brooks, Baxter was also featured in the passing game last week with three receptions on three targets. Good way to ease your new starting QB in for his first start by leaning on your two horses in the backfield. The freshman phenom looked plenty healthy against Houston last week.
Pivot Play – TE Ja’Tavion Sanders ($4,800) The foot injury has severely limited Sanders’ production over the last two games played with just six targets combined in the last three games. Could be a get-right opportunity against a BYU defense that has struggled mightily to defend the position. Chamon Metayer and Luke Hasz combined for 37 fantasy points against this Cougars’ defense.
Best of the Rest – QB Maalik Murphy ($7,000) Won’t have much exposure here to a quarterback making his first career start against a B12 opponent, but BYU’s pass defense is not great. 19.5 FPPG allowed to opposing QB1s this season and are 101st in pass D success rate. Some folks wanted Murphy to start over Ewers back in the offseason, so there is plenty of belief in the redshirt freshman. Four receivers have scored 18 or more fantasy points against BYU this season, so I don’t mind intermittently mixing in some WR Xavier Worthy ($6,600) or WR Adonai Mitchell ($5,600) exposure either, as they’ve combined for nine of the team’s 13 receiving touchdowns. This feels like a run-heavy game, though, for the Longhorns.
Injury Notes – n/a
Oregon vs. Utah
Point-Spread: Oreg -6.5
O/U Total: 47.5
Implied Score: Oreg 27 – Utah 20.5
Weather: 39 degrees / 5% rain / 6 mph winds
Oregon:
Top Play(s) – WR Troy Franklin ($8,300) I feel like we need exposure to Oregon here, but the projections for all Duck players are lower than normal given the matchup, yet the prices are still inflated. Multiple avenues to punt at the QB position this week and a surplus of running backs at our disposal is why we’re selecting Franklin as the top play, someone who should see lower ownership percentages because of his salary. Franklin leads the team in every receiving category and rarely comes off the field unlike the other Oregon WRs. Four receivers have scored 16 or more fantasy points this season against the Utes.
Fade – WR Gary Bryant Jr. ($4,900) The USC transfer has seen his snap counts fall the last two games, playing just 31 snaps against Washington State and targeted a grand total of zero times.
Bargain Bin – TE Terrance Ferguson ($3,900) Ferguson’s usage has been trending upwards ever since Week 1. 49 or more receiving yards in each of the last three games. Utah has yet to allow an opposing tight end to score double-digit fantasy points against them in 2023, so wouldn’t go overboard with exposure.
Pivot Play – QB Bo Nix ($9,800) I’d venture to guess that this is Nix’s lowest projection of the season for us at just 22 fantasy points, so I can’t imagine I’ll have much exposure here. Particularly after Utah’s showing a week ago where Caleb Williams didn’t have a touchdown until the final quarter of the game. Utah has not allowed a quarterback all season to score more than 20 fantasy points against them, so Nix is very close to a fade at this pricing.
Best of the Rest – RB Bucky Irving ($7,600) Irving should be good to go after leaving last week’s contest late in the 4th quarter. Folks normally avoid running backs against Utah, but the defensive numbers against the run are slipping slightly. Just 11.5 FPPG allowed to RB1s, but Utah is 49th in EPA per run play and 60th in rush D success rate. Still a very good defense, but not dominant like one may think. Irving can impact the game in multiple ways as he’s third on the team in targets and receptions. WR Tez Johnson ($6,400) is trending upwards, targeted 15 times in the last two games alone, and is a decent spend-down option if not wanting to use all that budget with Franklin. WR Traeshon Holden ($4,600) is fourth among receivers in routes run, but less than 30 yards receiving combined in the last two games. Feels like he’s not prioritized by Nix in competitive matchups like this.
Injury Notes – n/a
Utah:
Top Play(s) – RB Sione Vaki ($5,000) You watch Vaki play and wonder why the Utes didn’t make this switch sooner! This is JQJ’s backfield, and he has the trust of the Utah coaching staff, but there is a noticeable burst that Vaki has which Jackson simply lacks. 68 rushing yards on nine attempts for the converted safety but adds a different element in the passing game with five receptions on six targets for 149 yards and two scores. I loved the wildcat formations Utah employed as well with JQJ and Vaki in the backfield together.
Fade – QB Bryson Barnes ($7,600) I know Barnes posted 32 fantasy points last week against USC and does add a running element, but Oregon isn’t USC. Just three quarterbacks this season have scored more than 11 fantasy points against the Ducks who rank 26th in pass D success rate. Barnes should only be considered in a game stack, and the Vegas totals don’t suggest a shootout.
Bargain Bin – TE Landen King ($3,800) Extreme longshot play as the former Auburn transfer is now TE1 with Brant Kuithe and Thomas Yassmin out for the season. Had just one target against USC but resulted in a touchdown.
Pivot Play – RB Ja’Quinden Jackson ($6,700) We listed Vaki as the top play for Utah because of his versatility, but 20+ carries is a near lock for Jackson and volume is king in any format of college fantasy. The Ducks are allowing just 11 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season, but the run defense is the weaker portion of the Oregon defense. 66th in rush D success rate and 68th in EPA per run play.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Based on their production this season, Devaughn Vele, Mikey Matthews and Money Parks should all be $1k lower than their current salaries. The only Utah exposure I’ll have is with the two running backs. The one argument in favor of a Utes receiver is Oregon has allowed fantasy points in bunches to WRs this season – 13th most of the teams playing this weekend.
Injury Notes – If it wasn’t obvious already, now we know for sure that Cam Rising and Brant Kuithe will sit out the 2023 season.
Georgia vs. Florida
Point-Spread: UGA -14.5
O/U Total: 49.5
Implied Score: UGA 32 – UF 17.5
Weather: 82 degrees / 3% rain / 15 mph winds
Georgia:
Top Play(s) – WR Ladd McConkey ($5,800) or Dominic Lovett ($5,700) On that note, I like the idea of having one of McConkey or Lovett in your lineup. Choosing which one is a difficult proposition, though. The Missouri transfer is coming off his best performance of the season with 73 yards and a touchdown on nine targets against Vanderbilt. McConkey played a season-high in snaps in his third game back from injury against Vandy, and now has had the bye week to rest up for the stretch run. Slight lean towards Lovett here who will operate in the middle of the field from the slot, probably running some of the same routes that Bowers did when healthy.
Fade – WR Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint ($4,900) For those reading my DFS articles for years, you know by now I don’t watch a ton of Georgia football. Just like some don’t watch my Wolverines against inferior opponents, the games aren’t all that entertaining from a fantasy perspective. The outside receiver situation just feels very convoluted right now with McConkey back in the lineup. MRJ, Dillon Bell and Rara Thomas will all see rotational reps, along with McConkey, on the outside. A season-low one catch in the win over Vanderbilt.
Bargain Bin – TE Oscar Delp ($3,400) This will be a very intriguing storyline to monitor from a fantasy aspect with the former 4-star recruit filling in for Brock Bowers who is expected to miss the remainder of the regular season. Don’t roster Delp thinking he’ll see Bowers-like volume or production, but 4-5 targets should be a near lock for the talented sophomore. Reading some predictions from Georgia fans, though, it does sound like the belief is they’ll funnel targets more now to the wide receivers as opposed to Delp, so don’t go overboard with your exposure here.
Pivot Play – RB Daijun Edwards ($7,300) In relatively competitive matchups this season (because UGA hasn’t had many), the Georgia offense has leaned on Edwards as their workhorse, averaging nearly 18 carries a game outside of the Kentucky blowout. The once-vaunted Florida run defense has also taken a step back in the last three weeks, allowing a combined 73 fantasy points to Ray Davis (Kentucky) and Mario Anderson (South Carolina). RB Kendall Milton ($4,600) remains questionable with a knee injury but did play against Vandy two weeks ago and had the bye week to rest up. Still believe this is Edwards’ offense in 2023 as the team’s most dependable and productive back.
Best of the Rest – QB Carson Beck ($8,700) Think this is a bit too pricy for Beck without his best pass-catcher in Bowers. Florida is 32nd in pass D success rate, allowing just 18.7 FPPG to quarterbacks. High floor, low ceiling play that won’t sink your lineup, but won’t win you a GPP.
Injury Notes – See above on Milton.
Florida:
Top Play(s) – WR Ricky Pearsall ($7,100) The salary is a tough pill to swallow facing this defense, but Pearsall has been the team’s best offensive player all season with 25% of the team’s target share and receptions. Most fantasy points a wide receiver has scored on UGA this season is 21 by UABs Amare Thomas. You’ll need at least that, if not more, for Pearsall to hit value.
Fade – RBs. Split backfield against a top five run defense. Georgia is allowing the 8th fewest fantasy points to running backs among teams playing in Week 9.
Bargain Bin – WR Kahleil Jackson ($4,700) or Eugene Wilson ($4,900) If you want a piece of the Florida passing game, but don’t want to spend up for Pearsall, Jackson and Wilson could be potential options as Florida will be down two depth pieces at receiver. Jackson, a former walk-on, had a sensational touchdown grab against South Carolina last week, playing a season-high 57 offensive snaps. Wilson, the 5-star freshman, has been targeted nine times in back-to-back games with a 87% catch rate this season. He looks to be the real deal.
Pivot Play – TE Arlis Boardingham ($4,400) Major uptick in production from the redshirt freshman tight end with 14 of his 21 targets this season coming in the last two games. Three receiving touchdowns in that span, and four in the last four games. Georgia hasn’t “struggled” to defend the tight end position, but we’ve seen players have some level of success with three players scoring 8 fantasy points or more on this defense. Boardingham is without a doubt an emerging talent and fantasy option.
Best of the Rest – QB Graham Mertz ($6,200) To his credit, Mertz is showing that the Wisconsin offense was the problem, as the senior QB is now completing 76% of his passes this season with a 12-2 touchdown to interception ratio. We’ve also seen a major uptick in passing volume the last three weeks where Mertz is averaging close to 39 attempts per. He’ll throw that many passes against UGA on Saturday, but not surprising that this is an elite secondary Mertz is facing, ranked 7th in success rate and 11th in EPA per pass play.
Injury Notes – WR Caleb Douglas ($5,000) Remains out with leg injury as he was not listed on the depth chart.
USC vs. California
Point-Spread: USC -10.5
O/U Total: 66.5
Implied Score: USC 38.5 – Cal 28
Weather: 66 degrees / 0% rain / 9 mph winds
USC:
Top Play(s) – WR Caleb Williams ($10,500) Top USC play by a wide margin, but worth the $10.5k? I lean no slightly with a surplus of strong QB options on the slate, but can see this being a major bounce back performance from Williams after two sub-par performances. Cal is only allowing 20.7 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season, but they’re averaging 6.3 fantasy points above their seasonal average when facing this Bears’ secondary. Cal is also 121st in pass D success rate.
Fade – USC Receivers. You know, I was going to single out Mario Williams only here because he’s got an absurd pricing that is $3k more than what he should be listed at based on his production this season. But I think all USC receivers have an inflated salary compared to their production that you can just play Caleb Williams naked. 16% target share for leading receiver Brenden Rice, which is EXACTLY in line with what USC receivers have done the last two seasons under Lincoln Riley.
Bargain Bin – TE Lake McRee ($3,400) Tight end usage isn’t always prevalent in this scheme with the amount of talent at the WR position, but McRee is cheap coming off a season-high 35 yards against Utah. Cal is allowing 10.6 FPPG to opposing tight ends this season.
Pivot Play – RB MarShawn Lloyd ($6,900) I’m going to assume that RB Austin Jones ($4,200) is just better in pass protection and that is why he had a 46-18 advantage in offensive snaps as USC tried to come back against Utah last weekend. From a running and pass-catching perspective, there is no reason Jones should be on the field over Lloyd. Cal is allowing 16.7 FPPG to RB1s this season and 93rd in rush D success rate. USC should be able to run the football effectively.
Best of the Rest – WR Brenden Rice ($6,400) If I’m pairing Williams with anyone or playing a USC receiver solo, it would be Rice who leads the team with 40 targets and eight touchdowns. Deep threats have given Cal problems this season with Washington’s Ja’Lynn Polk and Rome Odunze, along with North Texas’ Ja’Mori Maclin, all scoring 28 or more fantasy points with completions of 35 yards or more. The Bears are susceptible to giving up big plays in the passing game.
Injury Notes – n/a
California:
Top Play(s) – RB Jaydn Ott ($7,700) Jeremiah Hunter will probably see the highest ownership of any Cal player, but Ott is the centerpiece of the offense in a great matchup. The only problem is the price with the second highest salary at the running back position. Four running backs have scored 22 or more fantasy points against the Trojans this season, and Ott provides one of the higher floors at the RB position because of his abilities in the passing game with 11 receptions on 15 targets.
Fade – n/a. Cal players are modestly priced with a high team total, so everyone listed here is in play.
Bargain Bin – QB Fernando Mendoza ($5,800) 20-point projection at $5.8k keeps Mendoza on the list of potential punt QB options for Saturday. Began the year as the third string quarterback but ascended the depth chart due to injury and inconsistent play. Saturday should feel like a breeze to him coming off the bye week facing this Trojan secondary after playing against Oregon State and Utah in his first two starts. The list of quarterbacks to score 25 fantasy points or more against USC this season – Shedeur Sanders (understandable), Noah Fifita, Bryson Barnes, and Chevan Cordeiro.
Pivot Play – WR Taj Davis ($4,900) Most will look towards WR Jeremiah Hunter ($5,500) and rightfully so as the team leader in every receiving category. Don’t forget about Davis, though, as a potential option as he’s been very good since returning from injury in Week 5. Seven receptions in each of the last two games and 60+ receiving yards in each of the last three. I would hesitate to stack the two together because of the murky quarterback situation, but this is a USC defense that has allowed seven different receivers to score 20 or more fantasy points against them in 2023. One of Davis or Hunter needs to be in your lineup on Saturday.
Best of the Rest – TE Jack Endries ($3,800) Intrigued by this sophomore tight end who splits out to the slot 50% of the time he’s on the field. That’s an attractive quality for fantasy tight ends. Four Pac-12 tight ends scored double digit fantasy points vs. USC. RB Isaiah Ifanse ($5,500) is probably the closest player to a fade on the Cal offense, but OC Jake Spavital has been known to split carries amongst his running backs, dating back to his days at Texas A&M and Texas State. When given the opportunity, Ifanse has showed well, averaging nearly six yards a carry with seven TDs. WR Trond Grizzell ($4,500) splits time in the slot with Monroe Young, but is the more effective of the two players, now third on the team with 16 receptions on 30 targets.
Injury Notes – n/a
